Russian analyst predicts breakup of US

[Marshal Murat]

Russian Analyst calls a breakup of the US

He also cited the "vulnerable political setup", "lack of unified national laws", and "divisions among the elite, which have become clear in these crisis conditions."

He predicted that the U.S. will break up into six parts - the Pacific coast, with its growing Chinese population; the South, with its Hispanics; Texas, where independence movements are on the rise; the Atlantic coast, with its distinct and separate mentality; five of the poorer central states with their large Native American populations; and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

While I think the aformentioned analyst took Shattered Union seriously, I would like to hear what the non-Americans think of the strength of the US system, not STFS leading us into secession.

[Hooahguy]

its possible, but not happening anytime soon....
id say not in at least a few more decades.

[Kralizec]

I don't see this happening in my lifetime. After that, who knows. Lot's of things can happen in theory.

I rather suspect he's letting wishful thinking cloud his judgement. I don't think that Russia is going to be as influential as he suggests either - it has "only" 150 million people versus China's 1.2 billion. Oil and gas will cause their influence to peak in the coming decades only to come crashing down when the world is forced into rehab.

[Strike For The South]

This man does not have a very good grasp on American demographics.

[rory_20_uk]

IMO Russia is far more likely to fragment, as is the EU, not to mention loads of countries in Africa.

A cheap swipe at the USA.

[Strike For The South]

This may be a hoax

He even suggested that "we could claim Alaska - it was only granted on lease, after all."

.....

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

IMO Russia is far more likely to fragment, as is the EU, not to mention loads of countries in Africa.

A cheap swipe at the USA.

[Fisherking]

It sounds like wishful thinking on his part. Either that or some one slipped something into his vodka!

[seireikhaan]

This man does not have a very good grasp on American demographics.

That's quite an understatement.

I think his past experience with the breakup of the Soviet Union clouds his judgement by predisposing himself to a certain path of events. The reality is that 80% of Americans are too lazy to rise up in Revolution anyways.

[CountArach]

It won't happen. The States already are quite reliant on the Federal Government (Whether you support this or not you have to admit it is true) for many, many things and as such to leave the Union would be suicide.

[yesdachi]

“…large Native American populations…” what year did he write this?
"If there are only 2 of us left why do you get to ware the war bonnet?"
"Just shut up Russell, and lets go get some fire-water and white girls at the casino"
“dude, I told you to call me fighting buffalo, the chicks dig it”
Seriously though, there are less than 2 million Native Americans left in the US.

To break-up there would have to be a motive, and I just don’t see one. Plus it would have to be easy because Americans are more concerned with their own individual lives rather than the idea of creating a new country, heck we can barely motivate a few dozen people to break away from their personal Saturday evening plans to come to a BBQ. Organize a separatist movement – HA!


It would make for a great game though! Pirates along the Mississippi, military warlords, forced labor camps, dirty deals with foreign allies, etc. USA: Total War

[JR-]

normally i wouldn't blat the screen with condescending smileys, but seeing it isn't directed at an orgah:






and even funnier:

When asked who would replace the U.S. in regulating world markets, he said: "Two countries could assume this role: China, with its vast reserves, and Russia, which could play the role of a regulator in Eurasia."

that guy is off his ****!

[Sasaki Kojiro]

and the northern states, where the influence from Canada is strong.

Those sneaky canadians!

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Seriously though, there are less than 2 million Native Americans left in the US.

Which may be more than there were in 1600. Haven't read good estimates lately.

[Rhyfelwyr]

Sounds like another mind clouded by nationalism. Also what did he mean by 'Canadian influence' on the northern states?

[TevashSzat]

Umm......yeah........what is he on?

Seriously, the Chinese will rise and bring communism to California?

[yesdachi]

Which may be more than there were in 1600. Haven't read good estimates lately.

Between 30 and 50 million are the best estimates I have seen. But the trouble is that once the white man decided to count them there weren’t many left and they were not the best bookkeepers.

[rvg]

Meh. Let's just say that the so-called "analyst" is wrong. He measures the U.S. using Russian standards and assesses our situation with Russian mentality. The guy is just too focused on ethnic divisions that are very pronounced in Russia, but virtually non-existent in the States. We're all Americans here, regardless of our roots.

[Husar]

He's probably right, obviously Americans live in denial of what's to come...

[CrossLOPER]

We're all Americans here, regardless of our roots.

You've never been in a southern village, have you?

It sounds like wishful thinking on his part. Either that or some one slipped something into his vodka!

Russians with snazzy titles do not drink vodka, but tea, chardonnay and champagne... when people are looking.

While I doubt the US is going to shatter into a collection of regional states any time soon, I can see some of those things happening.

Really guys, have you never read papers like this? He's getting attention and he's doing a good job. Basically what I'm trying to say is:

You got trolled, kinda.

[Lord Winter]

I don't think the U.S. can ever really fracture, we have to strong of a national idenity, even with all our differences. Now if your talking about a longterm economic slump and a gruadal decline on the world stage, thats much more likely; but, nothing is locked in yet and the next couple of decades will be key in deciding what role we'll play in the hundred years.

[rvg]

You've never been in a southern village, have you?

Sure. Rural Kentucky is southern enough, no? Been there. Have you?

[Martok]

Well. It looks like my fellow Minnesotans and I will have to return to our Viking heritage and go raiding and a-plundering. I've already got my shield and longspear, now I just need to find one of those silly helmets....

Sounds like another mind clouded by nationalism. Also what did he mean by 'Canadian influence' on the northern states?

I can only guess he's referring to Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Michigan, as we generally get along quite well with our Canadian friends. That said, I wouldn't want to lay odds on the likelihood of our northern neighbors pulling a Borg and actually assimilating us; that'd be a bit far-fetched.

[Hooahguy]

i was thinking as i finished reading the book Rubicon: if you look at the fall of the Roman republic and empire, you can kinda see the same things that caused it to fall happening now. does any one find examples of such? all i can think of is corruption, forming of political alliances that do more harm than good, not listening to their constituency, ect. i may even do my research paper on it.
thoughts?

[CountArach]

i was thinking as i finished reading the book Rubicon: if you look at the fall of the Roman republic and empire, you can kinda see the same things that caused it to fall happening now. does any one find examples of such? all i can think of is corruption, forming of political alliances that do more harm than good, not listening to their constituency, ect. i may even do my research paper on it.
thoughts?

I had a lecture on it the other day and basically our lecturer (An American himself) mercilessly mocked everyone who has published on this sort of thing. So my advice is: Don't.

[Hooahguy]

my english teacher says its a good idea....

[Sarmatian]

Obviously that essay is much more complex than the text about it. The text is pretty vague and only mentions few of the conclusions of the author and not how he got to them.

I'd say it's impossible to predict what's going to happen, but I think that 21st century in general will not be kind to US. US is slowly going lose more and more control of worlds oil and other resources, dollar is going cease to be worlds universal currency, there is already huge debt and growing trade deficit etc... Breakup of the US is not impossible but pretty unlikely. If it does happen, it will happen first and foremost because of economy, ethnic and national divisions will play a secondary role. Of course, in that case, a lot will depend on foreign influences, will they be helpful or harmful...

[CountArach]

my english teacher says its a good idea....

I'd value the opinion of an Ancient History Lecturer over an English Teacher in this matter.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

The US isn't going to be invaded by hordes of screaming barbarians any time soon. Unless global warming displaces the dutch.

[KarlXII]

I kind of liked Shattered Union.....