C'mon Ireland, you know you want to...

[Banquo's Ghost]

For information, the 2009 date is the deadline being set for the Irish government by the EU leadership.

There are some concessions being offered that may make the Lisbon Treaty more palatable. Until I see what these are, I cannot make much of a comment.

Louis is right though - there is no reason why a new referendum cannot be held if a newly amended treaty is being proposed. Like the British rebate, this may prove to be in our favour. However, from my personal point of view, I shall still be looking for a substantial increase in democratic accountability.

Unfortunately for the pro-European camp this attempt, whatever its merits, will be advocated by the most unpopular Taoiseach in modern history. And a re-run referendum will inevitably anger the electorate and if there are good changes, these will be lost in the fury and sound-bite politics.

[Louis VI the Fat]

An extensive poll study shortly after the Irish no vote revealed the following:

73% of the Irish consider EU membership to be a good thing.
63% of the 'no' voters consider EU membership to be a good thing.
(The European average is 52% in favour of the EU)
Only 18% of the Irish electorate wants to be less involved with the EU.

Yet, 53% of Irish voters voted 'no' to the Lisbon Treaty.

This is why there is every reason to try to reach a settlement. Even among the no voters, two-thirds are of the opinion that the EU is beneficial to Ireland. Yet, it is also clear that the EU can not function properly without a streamlining of its institutions and functioning.

The EU went from fifteen to twenty-seven members in 2004. Simultanously, to help the EU cope with this, a new set of treaties was supposed to go into effect. The first happened, the latter didn't. This is the heart of the problem.
If one is against the EU, there is reason to support this ongoing situation, whereby the EU can not function properly. If one is in favour of the EU, as three-quarters of the Irish are, then there is every reason to try to find a way out.

Preferably, what we need, is a new Irish government, with new energy and charisma, that enjoys the support of the electorate. One that can a) negotiate for Ireland the main provisions and concessions that are sought by the no-camp. And, b) that can on the basis of this present a clear and coherent argument for a yes vote based on the Irish interest in a functioning EU.

There are some concessions being offered that may make the Lisbon Treaty more palatable. Until I see what these are, I cannot make much of a comment.

The problem is that Ireland, the no-camp, does not have one or two clear demands that can be negotiated over. There's a whole array of demands, not all of them straightforward:

The farmers, who have received two thirds of Ireland's EU subsidies, argue that their handouts will be drastically cut, devastating rural areas.

Pro-life groups say Ireland will be forced to relax its abortion laws, pacifists say Ireland's cherished neutrality will be in danger because of provisions for a European army, and patriots say Ireland will be giving up the independence it fought so hard for less than 100 years ago.

On top of all that, there are fears that a centralised taxation system will mean the end of Ireland's favourable 12.5 per cent corporation tax (compared with the UK's 28 per cent), which has helped attract so many businesses.

Most of these can be negotiated over. Other countries have received specific exemptions too. For example, the UK and Poland demanded that European human rights must not be applicable to their subjects, so they were given exemption status. Likewise, if Ireland fears for liberal abortion laws, then maybe Ireland can seek exemption status from women's rights provisions.

However, any concession over each of these issues, will also reduce the support for the 'yes' camp. If the EU promises more handouts to Irish farmers, it will lose support too. Even so, there seems to be no other option but for concessions.

[Louis VI the Fat]

If I were a pro-EU strategist, I would urge the EU to remain completely absent from any Irish debate.

Instead, I'd invite in all the no-camps from Europe. Bring in the UKIP, let them tell the Irish that they should vote no. Bring in the Polish nationalists, let them spout threats to any Irishman who even considers voting yes. The 'no-camp' must be made to look to be the camp of vested interests, of foreign interference, of arrogance, to be the camp telling Ireland what to vote. Whereas the 'yes-camp' should present itself as the calm, rational, Irish camp that has formulated clear, traditional Irish interests and that seeks to maintain them in the face of foreign interventions.

This in a reversal of what happened during the last referendum. Where the no-camp managed to spin the referendum into an 'arrogant foreigners telling Ireland what to do' versus 'Irish resistance'.