The Godfather, Part 3 [Concluded]

[Sigurd]

What a mammoth thread...

I have finally read it all and I must say... there is a bit white noise in here.
What leads do we have?

1. Posts
2. Writeups
3. Voting pattern
4. Mafia musings

If I were GF, I would have chosen low-profile players leaving the high profiles to lynch each other.
Firstly, the detective tend to go after high profiles when investigating.
I would assume that at least Sasaki have been investigated by now and possibly Seamus or TinCow.
The Godfather is graced with the ability of appearing innocent when investigated, so my strategy would be to pick which players I thought would not be investigated until the later rounds of the game. Also, I would probably have chosen players which garnered some suspicion in other games and was later proven innocent, such as TevashSzat as an example.

[seireikhaan]

WHOA...

Wild URL avatar, Sigurd.

[Sigurd]

WHOA...

Wild URL avatar, Sigurd.

Heh... I just changed it.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Some more data for evaluation:

Posting as of Post #539

User Name , Posts , ppp(40 on a page), Comp ppp recent games
Askthepizzaguy 82 5.85 Ephesus (twn) 4.6 Chicago (twn) 7.19 Fillet (P-twn) 3.24 promo (maf) 3.79
GeneralHankerchief 42
Sasaki Kojiro 35 2.5
187Beefyz 34 2.42
777Ares777 33 2.36
Andres 30 2.14
TinCow 26 1.86
shlin28 22 1.57
YLC 21 1.5
Seamus Fermanagh 17 1.21 Ephesus (twn) 0.71
Reenk Roink 17 1.21 fillet (p-twn) 1.71 promo (maf, early reveal as det) 2.37
LittleGrizzly 17 1.21
White_eyes:D 14 1.0
Quintus.JC 14 1.0 fillet (maf) 2.76
seireikhaan 13 0.93
CountArach 13 0.93
Lord Winter 12 0.86
TevashSzat 11 0.79 fillet (p-twn) 0.47
boudica 11 0.79
Gaius Scribonius Curio 11 0.79
Jolt 10 0.71
Chaotix27 9 0.64 Ephesus (maf) 0.64 fillet (maf) 1.71
Tratorix 9 0.64
glyphz 8 0.57 Ephesus (maf) 0.85
Sigurd 8 0.57 Ephesus (maf) 1.29 Chicago (maf) 0.67
Rythmic 7 0.5
Ichigo 5 0.36
taka 3 0.21
Ignoramus 2 0.14
Myrddraal 2
Ituralde 1


Votes cast on murder victims:

'khaan = by Sasaki, D2 (1st lynch). Please note, this was Sasaki's first vote, he changed to Ichigo.

[White_eyes:D]

Myrddraal 2
Ituralde 1

I must open my eyes when reading posts.....they are in this game??? or are you pulling my leg??
but I get a "WOG coming soon" from them....

[LittleGrizzly]

WE niether of them are in the game, thats why seamus made them yellow....

The people in red have been murdered the people in blue lynched and that purple guy is the host...

[White_eyes:D]

WE niether of them are in the game, thats why seamus made them yellow....

The people in red have been murdered the people in blue lynched and that purple guy is the host...

hmmm.....I could barely see it.....thought something was up when there names were made almost invisible...

[TinCow]

The Godfather is graced with the ability of appearing innocent when investigated, so my strategy would be to pick which players I thought would not be investigated until the later rounds of the game. Also, I would probably have chosen players which garnered some suspicion in other games and was later proven innocent, such as TevashSzat as an example.

This is probably the best assumption to make when trying to figure out who was likely to be chosen by the Godfather. Most Godfathers would likely go this route, because it is the one that makes the most sense given a relative inability to predict who the detective would investigate in the first couple rounds.

Living people who seem to fit this profile to me:
LittleGrizzly
White_eyes:D
Quintus.JC
TevashSzat
Jolt
Chaotix27
glyphz
taka
Ignoramus

Others who I would consider slightly higher profile, but still possible choices:
shlin28
YLC
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Rythmic

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Actually, early detective choices are reasonably predictable. It's not an absolute, but the trend is:

N1 = person they are most familiar with/view as salient player
N2 = really active poster
N3 = 1st where the detective is trying to select targets based on behavior/post quality etc. Varies more from here on.

[Quintus.JC]

@Everyone: WHo would you pick to be your soldiers if you were Godfather?

I found the finger pointing going on between Jolt and Little Grizzly quite interesting. I'd certainly pick LG as a soldier if I were Godfather and I found his suspicions of Jolt to be a little bit pre-fab. Innocent or guilty I shall haunt his posts for a while

Personally I'd pick either

Boudica & Rythmic or YLC & Shlin

Superb players in their own right, and always seems to be on town's side even when they're actually plotting their demise.


I definitely wouldn't pick any high profile people because that's the obvious move. Most people tend to pick at least one high profile and one low profile, so I think the possiblity of the following people being at least one of the Godfather's lackey is quite high:

Andres
Sigurd
Reenk
Seamus
Tincow
Sasaki

These people are among the greatest mafia players to grace the guild, and it would take a great deal of resolve to not pick them to be your partner in crime.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I would probably have picked Rythmic & CountArach.

While fun, I don't think we can learn much from this (could be useful for the detective though). The Godfather is the one we absolutely have to lynch, and he could be anyone. So it's not useful to say "so-and-so probably wouldn't be picked as a henchmen, so we shouldn't lynch him".

[Thermal]

I would pick (If i wanted to win):

-Chaotix (he rarely gets lynched early, i think he could weave himself through a few rounds at least)
-Andres (similiar to above really)

Maybe

-reenk (same reason as above the above above)
-seamus (same reason as the above of the aboved that was aboved above)

For those that would dominate me are mad and madder, as they though I am the most unreliable person ever, thats if you'd want me to live for very long anyway.

[LittleGrizzly]

Innocent or guilty I shall haunt his posts for a while

Haunt away! i have nothing to hide!!

apart from this...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Im scum!

Anyway... Its hard to know how much attention to pay to possible godfather picks, the reason for picking them is also a reason against picking them... which can then in turn become a reason to pick them...

For example sasaki... sasaki is highly skilled mafia player so a great pick... for that reason he's a terrible pick because everyone will suspect him... and for that reason he's a great pick becuase no-one would ever pick him...

or Jolt... is a relative newcomer to mafia (i think ? if not disregard the rest of what i write) so because he hasn't played much mafia you may think he's a terrible choice... that infact makes him a great choice as people would think mafia would not pick him... which in turn makes him a terrible choice because people would think that godfather would think noonbe would suspect him

and i think this continues through all players... i think players not to pick would be like ATPG who gets lynched... and i hear beefy has a reputation for being lynched early also ?

For this reason i don't put too much into potential picks as you can go round in roudabouts with the different logic they may have used for thier decision...

Though i have to say... whilst were going for the godfather's pick mid level players would seem like the obvious choices... not going to the extremes of either end, which makes TinCow's list make some sense... so in summary i think mid level players (of which i am a part ) are likeliest godfather picks...

[Thermal]

Most suspicious electrical brand : LG

Yes i have my eye on you, my last phone was LG and it broke one eye as demonstared right here.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I have a suggestion for the town. Often in these games we get into a situation where there's only a few hours left till deadline and there's one person with three votes, another with 2, and the rest only have one. This happens a lot when people abstain. The problem is, the people who vote in those last few hours are almost forced to consider those top two vote getters as the only two choices. People will say "I don't think X is guilty so I'll vote Y" or "I don't think either is guilty so I'm going to abstain". Now, if we just had a couple active players put up 3 or 4 votes on a lurker at the start of each voting round, we'd always have an "ok to lynch because they don't post enough" option if we didn't like what we came up with during the day. It should also force an lurker mafia to roll the dice each day.

I intend to start with a vote for rythmic, glyphz, or sigurd, and then pursue some other player for questioning.

[TinCow]

I will support this plan. My preference would be for a vote on Rythmic. I've seen him be very useful as a townie in multiple games in the past. IMO, getting him talking would help the town, regardless of his role.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Night 3

TinCow was walking his dog down the street, enjoying all the new golden Christmas lights that had been put up in the Gameroom by shlin28. He was too engulfed with the golden Christmas lights to notice the red dot on his chest. Luckily there was someone there to point it out too him.
He heard someone screaming "TinCow, Watch Out! There is a red dot on your chest! It's a Sniper!!!"

The man threw TinCow what appeared to be a bulletproof vest, and he put it on without much thought. Not noticing that it was a vest covered with C-4 explosives!

It was too late to take off the vest though, the button was pushed, and TinCow went KABLOOEE!
A laser pointer and a business hat was found at the scene of the crime, along with the words "BEEFED" branded into his severed head.

Chief of Police shlin28 knew nothing of this until much later in the day, as he was busy preparing for the daily execution. "Always be prepared" was one of his many mottos, and besides, even if the mafia were really and truly gone... well... this sort of thing had always been a hobby for him anyway.

This time, unlike the past two days, the lynch would take place in the Gameroom Park, where the nude man on the unicycle was riding back and forth, juggling, keeping an eye on things, and the man with the boombox was blasting out "Woke Up This Morning" by Alabama Three.

After a while, shlin finished his job and whipped out a flare gun, firing it into the air. He then sat and waited as the entire village, minus TinCow, filed its way into the Park.

"All right," he mused when everyone had arrived. "Looks like we're down TinCow. Too bad, this execution is gonna be pretty cool. He would have liked it, I'm sure.

"Anyway!" he shouted to the crowd, catching them by surprise. "You're gonna vote again. The person with the most votes will enter this little salt hut I have made, complete with windows."

Everyone raised their eyebrows. A salt hut? While the amount of salt in itself was impressive, nobody saw the connection between the person entering the hut and then dying.

"The person and the hut will then be forklifted into the Gameroom pond we have here," shlin continued. "Then, judging by that person's choice, either physics or biology will take over. Get voting!"

~~~~~~~~~~~~

Still alive: (21)
shlin28
YLC
777Ares777
Andres
TevashSzat
Quintus.JC
Rythmic
White_eyes:D
Chaotix27
Sigurd
Reenk Roink
glyphz
187Beefyz
taka
Seamus Fermanagh
Jolt
LittleGrizzly
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Ignoramus
Askthepizzaguy
Sasaki Kojiro

Killed:
Tratorix
CountArach
seireikhaan
boudica
TinCow

Executed:
Ichigo
Lord Winter

[seireikhaan]

[TinCow]

Or perhaps I won't...

FYI, that kill write-up was stolen from Chicago Soiree, and IIRC, even there it was stolen from a previous game. Be careful of assuming that we got one of the grunts because of only one murder. Unless the spate of kills continues at one per night for a while, I would assume they're laying low to intentionally throw us off.

[edit]Original version of the kill write-up (Rise of the Mob game). GH was the victim, and Reenk Roink and Proletariat were the mafioso.

Chicago Soiree version of the kill write-up. Reenk Roink was the victim, and Sigurd and boudica were the mafioso. This kill write-up was used ironically, as Reenk Roink had earlier stated this was the exact way he wanted White_eyes to die. WE later claimed the use of this kill write-up was an attempt to frame him.

IMO, the person ripped it from Soiree because this version ends with "A laser pointer and a business hat..." which is logical substitute for the Soiree ending of "A laser pointer and a fedora..." In comparison, the Rise of the Mob ending just had "A laser pointer..." with no headgear of any kind.

[Andres]

Vote : Sigurd

Sasaki's suggestion makes sense and Sigurd should quit this lurker style of playing. In fact, he has lurked enough to lynch him anyway, regardless of how much he posts in this round.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Vote:YLC

I know I said I was going to vote for rythmic/glyphz/sigurd but at least at first glance the fact that there was only one kill changes things somewhat. I'll have to go back and review, it may be that we should hold off one day before lynching someone based on that, so this vote is temporary. YLC does come off looking bad to me though.

I suppose I'll stick with the plan and put my vote on sigurd while taking a hard look at ylc:

unvote:YLC

Vote:Sigurd

[Andres]

Our mafiosi seem to be a bunch of copycats.

According to GH's commentary there was only one kill in The Godfather 2 on night 3.

[boudica]

I think Sigurd would be an excellent choice to lynch: He's playing in exactly the same way as he did in the last few games and even using the same kill description again is so ridiculously WIFOM-TIKAL (Wine-In-Front-Of-Me-That-I-Know-And-Love) that I think he's just crazy enough to do it.

Apologies btw if my question regarding hypothetical godfather decisions was a little off-topic. I was just attempting to get people to post more.. make mistakes .. that kind of thing

I'm not sold on Sasaki being innocent. He seems very calm and collected His proffered plan - while it is one I would condone and adopt if still alive - is actually just as mafia-friendly as it is town.

Without wishing to be too flippant though, CoP shlins' 'Caligula'esque reign is continuing unquestioned, and funny as it is I would also support a motion to lynch him and put someone else in his place. There is every chance that some of the fore-runners for the post initially dropped out (Reenk & ATPG?) as a result perhaps of shlin choosing them as Soldiers?

The ensuing election for a new CoP should also bring more evidence to bear.

My lynch targets right now are ATPG, Sigurd, shlinn and Sasaki

I never actually thought to check if the dead could post or not... I assume I'm not offending anybodies religious sensibilities, so I shall continue. FIngers crossed Lord Winter was scum and we are on our way.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Just a note, all three mafiosi were in place before voting for Chief of Police began.

[Andres]

I'm not sold on Sasaki being innocent. He seems very calm and collected His proffered plan -

Ok, that's it. I'm building a Sasaki-shrine right now and will charge a 50,00 € entrance fee for those wanting to worship him Him near said shrine. Near the exit, I will also sell Sasaki T-shirts, pins, pencils and the violent "Sasaki in Osaka" video game.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I think that was just a missing period, not an indication of godliness Andres

Besides, the only requirement to enter the shrine is a recital of Rule #1.

[TinCow]

I definitely think that the choice of that particular kill write-up is useful. It wasn't a random choice, that write-up had been specifically used as WIFOM bait in Soiree, where it was already plagiarised. The odds of someone who was not in that game being aware of it are relatively low in my opinion. That doesn't narrow the field down much, since almost all living players were in Soiree, but it does add some weight of innocence to those were were not in that game. Those people are:

Rythmic
*Seamus Fermanagh
Jolt
Ignoramus
*Sasaki Kojiro

Seamus and Sasaki have asterisks because I would not put it past them to search through games they did not play to find just such a great WIFOM inducing write-up. However, I still think it's likely that these copycat write-ups were used only after some initial fears of being IDed via writing style after N1. Neither Sasaki or Seamus fit that profile, so I would still count this as evidence in their favor, just not as much in their favor as for the other three.

Note that the above should only be read in relation to the grunt who killed last night. All of the above are still fair game for the Godfather.

[shlin28]

Er... is it possible that Lord Winter WAS mafia and so we only had one kill today?

Or maybe one mafia was just inactive...



Edit: Stated the obvious lol, I say we look at who defended LW.

Edit 2: I say that we look on the bright side and find if anyone is defending LW, than being pessimists and think there is still 3 mafia. I don't like using post behaviour to nail people.... voting pattern is much better.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

As far as voting goes, I think the best play is to not make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia. We can't let the mafia trade one night kill for an easy lynch + two more night kills. If we wait until tomorrow they'll have to forgo another kill, and we get a lynch today that isn't based on it. That's why I'm sticking my vote on Sigurd for now.

************

If we do make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia (which I would be inclined to believe), then a couple people start to look scummy. First is YLC.

Connection with Lord Winter: possible anxious response upon my questioning of Lord Winter. The set of posts are linked to in this post of his. His accusation is that Lord Winter and I are inventing something to argue over. He appears to stand quite strongly behind this accusation, and leads of the next day of voting with a vote for me. In that light his abandonment of his case and the reversal of his previous position is suspicious. His vote tied lord winter with me. Now, the mafia know that after one of them is lynched it will be revealed to a certain extent the next day (the town will still have to consider that it is a mafia trick). So under what circumstances would they attack a partner in order to make themselves look more innocent? This part doesn't look too bad for YLC. Lord Winter was not a guaranteed lynch, YLC's vote contributed significantly to his lynching. But that is in hindsight. At the time, who know how many votes LW was going to get?

The other mark against YLC comes from the tiebreaker voting. He seemed to be in a hurry to end the tiebreaker. When he thought it was a revote he wanted me lynched, when he thought it was a runoff and his vote would end it he switched to Seamus. He voted Seamus again in the 2nd tiebreak of sorts. His reasoning for these votes is sketchy, something about a "little voice in his head" and my post about lord winter.

In summary, his reasoning behind his votes is scant and his willingness to string anyone up and completely reverse his position is scummy, and becomes doubly so if we assume Lord Winter was mafia.

After writing this out I'm tempted to ignore the patient approach and vote for ylc now, but I think I'll wait to see what he says before deciding that.

[TinCow]

Edit: Stated the obvious lol, I say we look at who defended LW.

I disagree. Don't get distracted by the classic mafia ploy to kill fewer than they have to. If LW really was mafioso, we'll know it eventually because the double kills will never return. I would only give the LW-was-mafioso theory serious credibility if we get 3+ nights of single kills. For now, I think it's only worth mentioning if there is decent evidence against someone for other reasons AND that person happened to display protective tendencies towards him or aggressive tendencies against whoever was LW's competition for the lynch. Keep working on normal methods. The LW theory will be just as useful later on as it is now, but we risk missing the forest for the trees if we focus in on this particular aspect right now.