@GSC, post 724-
"Since I don't trust ATPG's judgement fully, and don't believe him guilty at this stage, I'm going to Vote: Quintus Julius Cicero. You seem to easily accept everything ATPG claims as gospel. Not just this round but almost since the beginning of the game. Due to ATPG's verboseness it would seem to be a particularly easy way for a mafioso to stay beneath the notice of most of the town. Many of your posts tend to be fairly short votes in line with the latest ATPG theory. You have a number of games under your belt and are quite capable of deciding things for yourself and of making capable analysis without relying on another townie (or even mafioso) to do it for you. As such you have raised my suspicions. Its hardly damning I know but...."
Hey, you don't have to blindly follow me. But I applaud your reasoning for voting QJC, it shows that you ARE looking for likely suspects and thinking about reasons why they might be guilty. That, coupled with your rock-solid, silky smooth defense of yourself earlier has totally convinced me of your innocence. Town, this man is not guilty. I am glad I gave up the case against you... it was a shot in the dark against you, based on instinct, but Lord Winter was rightly a suspect too, and there were objectively more reasons to vote him. Not to mention there was a tie that needed breaking.
I like how you're attacking people for what you characterize as blindly following. Very good. Very good. Followers and blind bandwagonners deserve to die eventually. I want independent minds in this kind of game, ones that will be persuaded more by evidence and logic than popularity contests. And I like to reward bold mafia behavior, so that they take more risks. Better for town that the mafia play risky, because whenever you gamble, you eventually lose.
As a townie, though, you have nothing to lose, so the risk is always worth it. That's the main psychological difference between a townie and a mafia.
@Beefy, 725:
"I find the fact that Ignomorus still lives on highly suspicious. Will he be WoGged soon GH?"
Leave him be for a few rounds. He does need to die, but not yet. Benefit of doubt on Ignoramus, 3 rounds.
@Chaotix, 727
"Geez, ATPG, talk about an insane wall of text! How long did it take you to write that, three hours or so? It took me an hour to read it and all the posts following it. I applaud you for your effort, and it looks like this analysis will be a lot of help to us for this game. For this game, at least, your usefulness and helpfulness have far outweighed the sometimes-annoying quantity of your posts."
It took me around two or three hours to do the skynet analysis and post comments while doing so. Then, it was actually a relatively simple matter to merge the 4 or so notepad documents I had been keeping open. Organizing that mess into something marginally ok to read was a nightmare and took me an hour I think when I got here.
It's worth it. Because I am not here for long stretches of time, I save the thread and review it while I am offline. Since I have no one to talk to, the only thing I can do is pore over the data and make observations. And, since I have plenty of time with no distractions, I don't need to rush anything, which helps if you're looking for actual strange behavior.
I don't mind the effort. That's half of the fun of mafia games, to me... solving the case on my own as best I can, then comparing notes with town, and being part of the social network is the other half. It's also exciting to see how it turns out.
I also want to see if I can up SkyNet's accuracy percentage. 1 out of 5 wins for town under my watch isn't good enough, I don't care if I correctly guessed more than half of the scumbags, usually a round too late; and then second-guessing myself didn't help either.
I am scared to see the results of the game. I don't want to look like a fool again, but dare I even hope I personally nailed two or three scumbags out of three in one game? I may joke about having an ego, and maybe I have a little bit of one, but even I do not think so highly of myself that I am confident about anything, especially after being humiliated by lurkers of all people and totally thwarted by false scumtells from fellow townies in chicago, and my own bad reactionary/retaliatory play.
@Psychonaut, post 728:
"I'd have to agree. Despite ATPG's analysis being helpful now everyone is focused on it and the maf can hide while we bicker among our selves."
Should they do this, I will know.
Town, make sure you don't lurk or hide. SkyNet cannot analyze nonexistent posts. Mafia will have to post more if you do, too.
"Three important things from the write-ups. The kill mentions grizzly bears, so the mafia have been paying attention to the banter between Jolt and LG. Second, the nude unicyclist "observes everything", perhaps a reference to a detective. Third, the boombox guy has no care in the world, maybe immune to something?"
I think the writeups have been falsely mentioning townies for a while now, but it is easy as heck for the mafia to slip themselves in to that list now that we aren't really paying close attention to it as a potential clue.
They mentioned pizza delivery in a recent one. I didn't even bother with the WIFOM implications, because I'm roast pizzaguy at this point anyway, and it's absurd, just like the one against Grizzly.
Of more interest is the nude unicyclist and the boombox guy, but to be honest, there is one kill per night, indicating to me that there's no serial killer, 3 mafia, one might be dead, a detective, and that's everyone who is important. GH himself said the game ends when the Godfather dies, so to me it's that not important who these people are.
However, if anyone has plausible theories, I am listening.
@Psychonaut post 731:
"Tevash. I'm unsure. I don't feel he's overly scummy. He is being a bit defensive, but he's not doing any of the other key mafia tells."
Precisely. You know, he's been in enough games and he's not a dumb person, in my view... he could, with careful play, avoid acting scummy altogether. From my analysis, that's his entire strategy for this game. I think he's scum, but maybe he has a role, it's also possible.
I'd be willing to let him live another couple rounds if he claimed to have a valuable role, as long as we lynched him then. Besides, if he did so, he'd make perfect murderbait.
@Seireikhaan, 733
"Does the town really need me to SPELL OUT EVERYTHING for it? I can't believe nobody has noticed it..."
We are all stumped. Either give us more clues or discuss something else in a more... comprehensible manner. Please. I believe you're proven innocent, and I highly value your opinion, but frankly I am baffled as to what it even is.
@Psychonaut, 735
""held up by a pizza delivery car" a veiled reference perhaps? Or deliberately misleading?"
I've done plenty of WIFOM already in this game, I don't need to do more. And since I will die soon it's a moot point. Let's focus on clues that didn't come directly from the mouth of the lying scumbags as intentional WIFOM or attempts at framing me.
Humble suggestion is all.
@TinCow, post 745
I don't even listen to music on a regular basis. I would never have been able to do an analysis such as this. I am glad I'm not alone, because there are some types of clues I cannot decypher. Thank you for the attempt at decyphering the song clues.
@Sasaki, post 757
"khaan capitalized Evil unnecessarily in one of his posts, in reference to sharks with lasers which is a reference to Dr. Evil. This clearly indicates who is guilty."
Who?
And I'm glad you're paying attention, because I didn't see that one as a valuable clue... thanks for catching what falls through the cracks of my ability to analyze.
@Sasaki, post 762-
Indeed you are. I bow to the three of you. You're nearly as good as me.
@glyphz, 769-
"For reference. A tough (mountain of posts to) 'climb' ahead..."
I still think you're innocent, but can I nudge you to contribute a little bit more? You're making me nervous.
And I missed a huge post by Sasaki. I am doing him a dishonor by ignoring it. Here we go:
@Sasaki, post 714:
"Ok, there's some points I think I could explain more fully: First: Why would ATPG and/or YLC vote to lynch there own partner? Well, I have a reputation for being tenacious and good at convincing people, and I was going after Lord Winter pretty hard. Lord Winter was not successfully defending himself. When you're mafia, the fact that you know your partners are guilty always colors your perception of the game. There are many times I've been very anxious over a post one of my partners made that I thought would give them away only to have it ignored. So by that view, it's quite possible that LW's partners pessimistically considered him as good as dead. "
That's very provocative and insightful. Thank you for sharing your mafia theory with me. I have much to learn from master Sasaki... maybe I can teach you of my ways as well, if you're willing.
"Second: YLC's behavior yesterday. I described this poorly in my last post. I meant to get at the disconnect between his first post after the accusation, and the rest of his posts."
Yeah... I get it. YLC's behavior when looked at on the surface seems to be misleading, scummy, confusing, irrational, illogical, and bad townie behavior. Absolutely. Absolutely.
And YLC has been mafia how many times? We have no read on his behavior as a mafioso, because he's never been one. And in this game, where people pick their partners, YLC would not be chosen in my estimation, because he's on everyone's scumdar all the time. And you have to admit, if he's a mafia after all this, he's got some cojones on him.
I am thinking about grapefruits for some unexplained reason. Must be a totally random thought. Must be.
Give YLC the benefit of the doubt for a couple rounds, then go hog wild on him for all I care. Occam's razor suggests he's a townie or a ballsy, ballsy mafia who WILL die soon for his trouble.
Dare I question the mighty Sasaki Kojiro? I dare.
"Third: ATPG's case on Curio. 8 posts, several of them very long. He persistently questions Curio and accuses him of hiding. I don't think I'll get into the meat of ATPG's accusation but it is poor logic--thought not as bad as his case on shlin. After all that, he switches to Lord Winter with this post:"
Yeah, forgive me Sasaki, but you're dropping the ball here. Why is it scummy for me to question Curio? And because the case was bad, and Curio answered my questions, I dropped it. That said, I am not going to punish you for questioning me, even if I disagree with your assumptions here. Just please consider my opinions with an equally open mind. Thanks!
In short, your case against me is poor. But a worthy try, so... put that stuff to good use on someone else. You know I'm a dead man walking, so... who else?
"Fourth: ATPG current suspects."
3 people who had no heat on them. That's better than say, Tevash, who has no new suspects, lurks, and bandwagons. But thanks for suspecting me so much and him so little.
I am truly having fun now. For me to nail Sasaki on poor reasoning, that's an utter joy.
"Ignoramus always lurks and is usually WoG. Not a "soon" lynch in my book."
Agreed. But you know, it was worth a try to put pressure on him. And like you, I've determined he deserves more time.
"(about Reenk) This is his summary, and it has problems of its own--no one cares about being CoP and there are plenty of veteran players to recruit--but look at the full case for more fun, here's some snippets:"
Perhaps you don't care about being CoP, but I would personally campaign for it as a scumbag. Definitley. Shlin hasn't been really considered as a suspect and he's contributing not much to our efforts. He's being overlooked precisely because he's the CoP. I'd jump on that in a heartbeat, because I play ballsy gambits, and it usually gets me dead, but mafia games are about having fun as much as winning. So there. And if the detective dies... how could you clear the CoP as a suspect? Only through lynching.
There are plenty of Vets to recruit, but which ones are choice candidates?
1. Players who win games
2. Players who haven't recently won a game, like yesterday
3. Players who survive a long time no matter their role
4. Brilliant players
5. Inscrutable players
Reenk meets all 5 categories to an insane extent. As such, he is a worthy candidate. Resist it all you want, but it's a fact.
"My reaction to this is: what?? Seriously. I wouldn't say reenk is innocent but this is what he plays like, and these reasons of atpg's are nonsense. On Tevash, this seems to be the meat of atpg's accusation:"
You're being too dismissive of me. Disagree if you wish, but I don't think you're giving me a fair shake. I ask you to reconsider, just for a moment, your judgment on me. Humor me.
This is what Reenk plays like as scum or town, and those reasons against him aren't to be just dismissed as nonsense. You didn't even explain why, or cite reasons why it's a bad case. Just writing me off like that actually triggers my scum indicator, but I refuse to threaten you for being hostile to my point of view.
Should you survive to the end and we haven't won, I'll reconsider you as a suspect. (Hopefully mafia will pick up on this and leave you alive. In spite of your bad analysis of me, you are a legend and I want you alive to vote. I think I can persuade you, especially past my own death.
"In the middle of the list--null tell. And how is tevash's perfectly legitimate point about the writeup analysis scummy? He's right if you ask me, the writeup analysis is just wifom. You can hardly attack tevash for not going after mafia hard and fast when hardly anyone in the game has."
I disagree about the middle of the list thing. Mafia do not often end up at the very top or very bottom. Guess what? In Blackadder, I ended up near the middle of the activity chart, and I'm always at the top. I was mafia. I can't be sure, but I think I wasn't the top poster in Prometheus either, especially post-mortem. I always am as a townie.
..Wow, I just totally destroyed my ability to ever escape from the top of the list ever again.
I am willing to destroy my chances as a scumbag in future games. I need more townie wins, and I have a 3 game streak (going on 4, with Jubal's mafia) as mafia, so I can handle a little more of a challenge.
"Reposting my original case on YLC:
If we do make the assumption that Lord Winter was mafia (which I would be inclined to believe), then a couple people start to look scummy. First is YLC."
Ok. well, you voted for Lord Winter, the scumbag. So did I. so did YLC. so did White Eyes.
Now put on your thinking cap again; (humor me)
If
Lord Winter = Mafia
Askthepizzaguy = Mafia
YLC = Mafia
Then
Askthepizzaguy + YLC kill mafia buddy Lord Winter
Then
Askthepizzaguy + YLC both annoy, distract, and otherwise pester town until we are both prime suspects.
Then
I offer you my head, and say go ahead and lynch YLC.
You must think "mine" and "his" are the size of Mercury. So I thank you for the compliment, but I'm more subtle and clever when I am mafia, not incredibly dumb and suicidal. So, dead wrong on me. Can't say about YLC, lynch him if you wish, I won't stop you. I just think he's proven himself as a townie by sacrificing himself in an unpopular way. You seriously underestimate YLC. Someday, it will bite you guys in the butt.
Admit it. He's either helping, or he's a very worthy mafioso. Either way, you admit he is talented. So, small victory for you YLC in this game. You get a medal or something when this is over, from me.
"In summary I don't think either of these two can be considered trustworthy--they both need to be lynched imo.
Vote:Askthepizzaguy"
I hold no grudges. Sasaki, I still think you're townie, just misguided.
Sasaki and misguided in the same sentence... my world no longer makes sense.
Just playing with you Sasaki.
@
Shlin-
"Hmm... ATPG and YLC are totally scum in my august opinion (note: I accused them yesterday, but ATPG's response just made my suspicion a lot lot worse)
His case against me is just ludicrous, and from his reasonings ANYONE who tried to become the CoP would be scummy as only Godfathers would do that... yeah right...
I also think his "SkyNet", although a worthy piece of work, is not a standard piece of post analysis machine that Holmes was (post count/post length is a lot better than opinions on their posts, more mechanical that way and less tinged by personal opinions.) so I would not trust it as much as Holmes. Lynch ATPG and YLC my fellow citizens!"
If that's the best you have to offer, Shlin, and you don't give better suspects soon, my opinion of your skills as town or mafia will have diminished. And you're registering higher on the scumdar with each post. Fair warning, my friend.
To be fair, my specific criticism of you is that you're defensive, quick to judge me, you're dismissive and sarcastic. What are you hiding? You have every right to criticize me, and disagree. I just think you made a poor case against me, gave a scummy defense, and have been disastrously wrong so far. Plus you got support from people I consider scum. No proof, just interesting.
You're not doing a good job as Police Chief. I recommend you be lynched before the game is over. You're mostly just joking around, and your analysis is lacking, and your suspects are easy marks. You're not putting forth effort, and that galls me to no end, buddy.
@LittleGrizzly, post 718
Jolt is confirmed innocent now, so leave him be, and kudos for actively encouraging an investigation on yourself. You once again haven't mislead the town down the garden path, and your hands are clean.
@Andres, post 719
"I for one don't believe the mafia will voluntarily drop back to one kill a night for two subsequent nights in a row this early in the game.
Yes, it can be a trick, but making your kills count, narrows down the odds of getting lynched by the townies who, in most games, act unpredicatable. Many mafiosi felt comfortable in the past, thinking they did very well getting no attention and eventually got lynched in the last rounds.
Following that, Lord Winter was very likely scum.
Sasaki is spot on about it being suspicious how ATPG all of the sudden changed his mind and voted Lord Winter.
Even if Lord Winter wasn't scum, it is still rather suspicious.
Also note that in the post in which he voted Lord Winter, he also said he would go after GSC the next round. Instead of doing that, he suggests that we lynch Reenk Roink, Tevashzat and shlin28 in the next three rounds.
In a way, assuming ATPG is scum, this puts GSC in a bad daylight as well. Was he just ATPG's scapegoat or was it a tactic to create distance between him and his mafia buddy?
Vote : Askthepizzaguy
Fos : GSC"
You consider Lord Winter scum, and readily acknowledge I am most responsible for his death. Then you consider I am scum, after my totally suicidal behavior. Right. I'd just hand the game to you guys as a mafia. Uh huh. Sorry Andres, rethink your case. After I am dead, and the game is over, I think you owe ME an apology, as I once owed you.
Gentlemen do that for one another, so I'm looking forward to it. That said, you meet all my criteria for town and I will willingly hand you the game for a while if you're mafia, out of respect for your skill in avoiding SkyNet detection.
I will only consider you as a suspect for the final lynch, and even then, I'd be hard pressed to do so.
@LittleGrizzly, post 720
"ATPG.. my main reason to suspect him is because he try's so damn hard to look innocent, again its a risky strategy but he has shown a few times he is willing to die trying to prove his innocence as a townie... though he could have been building up to this mafia game and over the last few games gave himself the perfect cover"
Stop thinking like this. I try to win every game. I have given you my EVERYTHING as a townie in every game I've been in. This is no gambit. Stop it guys. Use Occam's razor BEFORE you leap to this unlikely and very, very erroneous conclusion. That's poor townie reasoning.
Sorry, I need to
my troops when they misbehave. Tis my prerogative as the self-appointed "Ultimate Town Protector", to quote a Cow made from some kind of shiny metal. (post 690)
@Chaotix, 727-
"Do you think ATPG will stop using SkyNet on you just because he's been lynched?"
I think I am going to sig this line for a while. You have so deliciously and potently worded how futile it is to lynch me as mafia for any reason besides removing my voting ability.
Re: The Godfather, Part 3 (IN PLAY)
This is getting painful to watch. I'm innocent. The mafia has done this before in the Godfather series, GH and Saski won the first game using it. The lack of kills proves nothing.
Originally Posted by Askthepizzaguy
Sasaki, and let's do move on. Please. I am anxious for the rest of the game to begin.
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