The Settlement [Concluded]

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I urge the town to vote for TinCow today.

In every game I've played with him, he's taken a very measured and thoughtful approach as a townie:

Take this example from capo II:

As I've told other people, I am at a disadvantage because I do not know any of the 'reputations' that people have from other games. I am operating purely based on what I have read in this thread and the content of PMs I have received. Based on that, Louis is one of the few people I have seen who has been trying to help and who hasn't been specifically gunning for a certain person. Given the limited resources at my disposal, I think that's the only logical way for me to make a decision. If I see evidence that Louis is a bad guy, I will react accordingly, but I simply can't base a decision on 'reputation' when that in itself requires that I trust that the 'reputation' information I am being given is accurate in the first place.

Or recall his reaction to Tevash's detective claim: calmly ask to see his role pm, withhold further judgment until the next day. Still not posted, recommend lynch. Attention to detail, emphasis on rational arguments.

Or check out his own description of how he acts as town.


Now look at his response to the writeup that said Ares was guilty:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

The priest king was interrupted by a slave who barged inside the entrance hall holding a rock that while covered with blood still had an uncanny shine. The slave exclaimed: "I found these on master pevergreen's body, LOOK!"

As all present in the gathering gazed into the palm sized stone, they saw the entire events of pevergreen's last moments being played out. They saw the argument with the owl and they saw the armored man approach and kill him. They even saw who the armored man was. It was the man called Ares!

Reenk Roink immediately gave the order to his Bronze Companions to draw their swords and seize Ares, but amazingly, this drew protestations from the crowd who demanded they vote on the matter.

Am I the only person here who finds it extremely convenient that we have simply been told who was guilty? Even if that was the result of a so-called "watcher," presumably the watcher would simply have that information themselves and then have to produce it to the rest of us. It seems absurdly suspicious that a completely anonymous 'stone' was left on the body to convince us all of what happened. How do we know that this stone wasn't placed there by the killer?

I see nothing in that role PM that leaps out as being fake. Why do you think it is?

1) Actually, yes, because I feel like Ares is the kind of person I would be able to sway with my arguments if I felt the need to. I don't feel particularly threatened by him as a player and I think I would stand a far better chance at spotting an irregularity in his behavior than I would in someone like you, GH, Andres, etc.

2) Yes, anyone. The way I see it, Ares has probably been framed, which means he's innocent. Thus, anyone is a better choice than Ares.

Let me ask you a question: Are you so afraid of Ares that you think we won't be able to spot his scuminess unless we lynch him right here and right now?

You are wrong about this. Occam's razor points to his innocence because:

We don't, plain and simple. This is too good to be true. Therefore it is not. Mafia are not anonymously revealed in first day write-ups.

I think the discussion about whether Ares' role PM was fake or not is pointless. All this talk about the presence or lack of an introduction line is a waste of time. If that role PM is fake, it was an extremely good forgery. It mimics Reenk's writing style perfectly, and is laced with just the proper amount of humor throughout. No one would make that good of a forgery and then not put in the standard greeting line that we ALL got. It is far more likely that Ares is telling the truth and didn't post it at first because he didn't think it was actually part of the role. This is consistent with him not posting the joke earlier as well. As for the formating, I've seen that happen many times with real role PMs. It happens when people simply highlight and copy what they see in their PM box instead of hitting reply and using the formated text inside the reply box. The better point of discussion is whether the current situation seems like a frame attempt or whether it seems like a legitimate reveal of a mafioso.

Are you serious? *I* have been ignoring major arguments? I was the first person who had the guts to stick his neck out for Ares when he was about to be bandwagoned into an insta-lynch. I've been providing a good deal of arguments for my position this entire day phase. Simply making one post which concentrates on a lesser issue doesn't change the fact that I've been arguing heavily this entire time.



WHOA. WHOA. WHOA.

I claimed "there can't possibly be a watcher role in this game"? You accuse me about going after a straw man, and then you just fabricate a statement? What I said was that a watcher role would presumably only get the information in a night result PM and would have to disclose it just like any other detective. I never said that there wasn't a watcher in this game, just that the stone which showed Ares did not seem like it was the result of a watcher.

Now who isn't reading carefully?



I am waiting to here what pevergreen has to say before I decide on Ares. Ares already has more than enough votes to get him lynched, so my vote doesn't make a difference. I'm keeping it on FH for the time being in the hopes that it will encourage him to speak more.

Sorry for the MASSIVE amount of quotes.

The point is, TinCow defended Ares very energetically, starting almost immediately after the kills were posted (before it was clear Ares would be lynched). Now, anyone who defends someone who turns out to be scum should looked at carefully, but TinCow raises more eyebrows than that because of the contrast it presents with his usual townie style. Despite strong evidence against Ares in the writeup of the host, he was not cautious or measured at all in his defense of him. There are bold claims and logical fallacies throughout his defense. For example:

1) "Ares has probably been framed, which means he's innocent. Thus, anyone is a better choice than Ares."

Ares probably being framed would mean that he is possibly innocent. Mafia can frame themselves (unlikely), mafia can frame other mafia (possible), and it could in fact not be a frame at all (likely). And, unless TinCow does not consider himself innocent, he should consider Ares a better lynch than himself.

2) "We don't, plain and simple. This is too good to be true. Therefore it is not. Mafia are not anonymously revealed in first day write-ups."

There is no basis whatsoever for these claims. Ares was anonymously revealed in the write-up, so what basis is there for saying that he must have been framed?

3) "If that role PM is fake, it was an extremely good forgery."

Multiple people had stated that they were confidant that reenk would have given the mafia fake claims. So TinCow was either ignoring that deliberately, or not being careful and measured.


Soon after this, Ares posted a confession with a role pm that had him as "edgar's swordsman"

Kill: Every night period, you may attempt to kill one settler. This will involve breaking into his tent or house and putting him to the sword.

pevergreen was killed with a mace, not a sword, and the killer is described as a warrior of vode, not of edgar. So it seems clear that Ares was not being entirely truthful. So:

1) Ares was trying to protect TinCow, who had gone out on a limb defending him
2) Ares was trying to frame TinCow, who had gone out on a limb defending him
3) Ares was messing around, or doing something else

Now, this point is wifom. And I'm pretty sure it will be said to be wifom by most of the town. So why not do it if you're mafia, you can just say it's wifom right?

Regardless, that isn't the main point.

************

To summarize, TinCow acted in a manner very unlike how he acts as town (and how he says he acts as town), in defense of a confessed killer. I think I also see signs of him being annoyed with Ares' being revealed in the writeup on the first day, but this is the kind of thing that triggers my gut, not what I'd use as evidence (because the inevitable defense is nuh-uh, and I can't claim to read minds). However, I think if you take a look at his posts you'd see why I think that.