The Settlement [Concluded]

[Askthepizzaguy]

I think we are still waiting to see how 'helpful' that actually was ATPG

If you're talking theory, I'll take that challenge!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

What would have been a better lynch? I had almost no duel ability, and I had no special abilities whatsoever, beyond knowing that Seamus could be innocent, and with recruitment, that is impossible to know anyway. The only better lynch would have been a usurper or other anti-townie. And by lynching me, it was possible to find such people without wasting a useful townie's life. With certainty, no good useful role was wasted, and I removed myself as a suspect, so I wouldn't be a tempting target in later rounds instead of a guilty party. The only better move, would be that totally random lynch of a baddie, which given the odds at the time, would be pretty farfetched. Possibly hitting an innocent useful townie versus the less likely chance of hitting an anti-town player... or absolutely making sure that all pro-townie roles get their chance to work their magic to find the usurpers? I choose the safer option, and apparently, I wasn't the only one who thought it was a good idea, as I ended up deader than a box full of decapitated squirrels.

It's a matter of townie theory, and I think I'm on solid ground here. It becomes less and less effective or useful in later rounds, and I will never offer myself up for a lynch past the midpoint of a game, because that's when it becomes very damaging and less helpful.

Of course, that's all theoretical... technically, there was a chance to kill a usurper, and random chance may have allowed that to happen, so it's not absolutely the best move. But it was perhaps the odds-favored move, safest for town.

Plus if I were mafia you kill me anyway. Because I'd "never" offer myself up for the lynch, several times, as a mafioso.

[Andres]

If you're talking theory, I'll take that challenge!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

What would have been a better lynch? I had almost no duel ability, and I had no special abilities whatsoever, beyond knowing that Seamus could be innocent, and with recruitment, that is impossible to know anyway. The only better lynch would have been a usurper or other anti-townie. And by lynching me, it was possible to find such people without wasting a useful townie's life. With certainty, no good useful role was wasted, and I removed myself as a suspect, so I wouldn't be a tempting target in later rounds instead of a guilty party. The only better move, would be that totally random lynch of a baddie, which given the odds at the time, would be pretty farfetched. Possibly hitting an innocent useful townie versus the less likely chance of hitting an anti-town player... or absolutely making sure that all pro-townie roles get their chance to work their magic to find the usurpers? I choose the safer option, and apparently, I wasn't the only one who thought it was a good idea, as I ended up deader than a box full of decapitated squirrels.

It's a matter of townie theory, and I think I'm on solid ground here. It becomes less and less effective or useful in later rounds, and I will never offer myself up for a lynch past the midpoint of a game, because that's when it becomes very damaging and less helpful.

Of course, that's all theoretical... technically, there was a chance to kill a usurper, and random chance may have allowed that to happen, so it's not absolutely the best move. But it was perhaps the odds-favored move, safest for town.

Plus if I were mafia you kill me anyway. Because I'd "never" offer myself up for the lynch, several times, as a mafioso.

I disagree.


Victory condition in all mafia games : your team must outnumber the other team.

Dead of player X reduces the numbers of his team with 1.

Ergo: dead of player X does not help his team to obtain victory.

***

Anyway, back to the game at hand: I think Yoyoma1910 is innocent. He has been cooperative with town all game long and has offered you guys more than one good lynch target on a silver plate during this game. It simply wouldn't make sense for him to be one of the bad guys.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'd think that lynching a detective would qualify as being worse. In a game with many pro-town roles, a certain non-role lynch versus a very likely pro-town role lynch makes for a safer and less simplistic path forward. But that is why it is theory; it doesn't work in all cases, and there is room for debate.

But I agree, back to the topic at hand.