Quote Originally Posted by Beirut View Post
Agreed. But there were enough factors in play to say that the war was highly probable, if not downright inevitable.
If one compares Europe and the chances of a great war happening then yes the lack of trust, alliances and leaders etc meant that there was a higher chance of war in 1909 than in 2009.

Inevitable you say but at what point? Summer of 1914, 1912 or 1900? Just remember that in 1914 the major European powers had not been at war with each other for 43 years which was unprecedented. We only broke that record in 1989.

It took a major event like the assassination of the Austrian Archduke to start the events that led to the war. What if that had happened a few years later. Would Austria be as tough if Russia was stronger? I'd have to look up the details so I'm writing from memory, but IIRC Russia had caved in on another issue just a months before which made Austria think they could play really tough on Serbia and get away with it.

If Russia had become stronger and problems with minorities had weakened Austria then what would have stopped Germany to pick Russia as an ally instead? We see some shifts in alliances up to then so in no way can we say that everything was set on a course that could not be turned.

I can't speak to "Tolstoy determinism" - at least not until you explain it to me - but it's clear to see that people were acting like... people, and the outcome of the fear and mistrust and miscreancy was obvious. There was going to be war one way or another. The proof is that there was a war. I don't think the war was so much a mistake as it was simply stupid.
To keep it short(and perhaps oversimplifying it) the essence of Tolstoy's "War and Peace" is that history itself is the sum of the actions of countless people that makes the actions and decisions of individual leaders predetermined. As if history moves like a big wave and leaders are merely surfers, some look flashier than others but in the end the wave has a set direction.

A campaign or war can be decided by small random events like bad weather or a deserter that results in a lost battle. And wars have decided the fate of nations.

Tolstoy's idea neglects the fact that decision makers or advisors are not always skilled at their job just because they managed to get a position of power. Yes history involves the actions of many people, but in no way can one say it all goes in one direction as different priorities and mentallity of leaders acting on various events means just a few different factors could change what decisions were made.


CBR