Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[AggonyDuck]

Out of the two bandwagon options, none really satisfies me. For some reason Wishazu tingles my gut. Might be that something feels a bit off in his posts.

Vote: Wishazu

[Wishazu]

Might be that something feels a bit off in his posts.

Such as?

[A Very Super Market]

Lurking has failed us today.....

[PershsNhpios]

I now suspect Rhyfelwyr much more.
And not only because I was suddenly targeted after challenging him, (perhaps I was considered a danger because I won a duel previously?), but because of his very weak reasoning for joining the bandwagons which he has.
He has been active in the game, but contributed nothing to the intelligent discourse, and his style reminds me very much of Beefy when he is playing as mafia.

Leave TinCow alone...

[White_eyes:D]

Leave TinCow alone...

No....he is lying though his teeth....he BEAT "The Crimson Demon"...and he claims a duel score of 3??
Die Ninja scum

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It would seem that lynches and duels have accomplished little; the ninja still attack three per night and the other faction one more. I suspect that one or more of our baddies are simply lurking away and relying on the numbers -- which works in huge games as I well know.

I am inclined, provisionally, to assume Husar and Sasaki are innocent. Husar defended himself but was hurt badly in the process. This strikes me as very much how I would narrate a "defeats first night kill effort special ability. Both appear to have been targeted by the mafia. Doesn't preclude them being in the traitor sub faction, but a strict numbers interp favors innocence.

YLC made a fairly specific claim as to his duel rating. Based on that I have questions for:

Andres: Is there any real chance of a lower score defeating a higher score duelist, or is this chance very small?

Arach: Was YLC's duel score a 5 or higher (presuming 3 is the average samurai score -- as a lack of argument with above reveals seems to indicate?

[KukriKhan]

Lurkers, previously safe within their caves, begin to emerge.

Interesting.

Please, Yoyoma, a haiku for the occasion. :)

My offering:

Petals fall aground
stamen remains to feed bee
life and death proceed

[AggonyDuck]

Such as?

Asking what is the highest known battle rating, using this as your reasoning:

I don`t want to sit around waiting to be murdered in my sleep or whatever. I`ve only asked for the highest number to be posted, I didn`t ask for any names. I could be a battle rating of 5 which may sound high but what if there are people rated 15? then a 5 would be a bit pants and suggest dueling is probably not the way forward for me etc.

What makes this strange, is that for someone who doesn't want to wait around and be murdered in your sleep, you've made awfully few challenges. None in fact. Add to that the fact that your voting reasons haven't been the most convincing and you're suspicious enough for my vote.

[AggonyDuck]

As for determining Sasaki's innocence, I suggest challenging him, as that will provide us with additional information of his role.

[Beefy187]

Is it possible for the mafias to have a forged pms? Like a cover pms?
I think they do in most mafia games. So pm doesn't give us much clues.

Andres did say those with low duel score could beat the better warrior, but we have nothing better to go on.

Vote: TinCow
Challenge: GH

Lets end this already GH

[Death is yonder]

I think Andres suggested that lower battle ratings can defeat higher battle ratings is possibly due to percentage.

Eg: Equal % = 50% Chance for each person

Rating=-0 opponent= 50% ? Player X = 5 Player Y = 5
Rating=-2 opponent= 40%? Player X = 4 Player Y= 6
Rating =-4 Opponent= 30%? Player X = 3 Player Y = 7
Rating = -7 Opponent = 15%? Player X = 2 Player Y = 9
Rating = -9 Opponent = 10%? Player X = 1 Player Y = 10
Rating = -10 Opponent = 5%? Player X = 0 Player Y = 10
Rating= -11 Opponent = 0%? Player X = -1 Player Y = 10

I presume this to be a rough idea of how things are probably going for duels.

Dunno who to vote.

[Beskar]

Unless TinCow had a cover pm, he is innocent. I am innocent but people just don't like me,they are murderers.

[Husar]

I think Andres suggested that lower battle ratings can defeat higher battle ratings is possibly due to percentage.

Eg: Equal % = 50% Chance for each person

Rating=-0 opponent= 50% ? Player X = 5 Player Y = 5
Rating=-2 opponent= 40%? Player X = 4 Player Y= 6
Rating =-4 Opponent= 30%? Player X = 3 Player Y = 7
Rating = -7 Opponent = 15%? Player X = 2 Player Y = 9
Rating = -9 Opponent = 10%? Player X = 1 Player Y = 10
Rating = -10 Opponent = 5%? Player X = 0 Player Y = 10
Rating= -11 Opponent = 0%? Player X = -1 Player Y = 10

I presume this to be a rough idea of how things are probably going for duels.

Dunno who to vote.

How about a die is thrown (random number generated, it's an excel sheet after all) and then the number of the die is added to the duel rating and whoever has the higher number wins this round, IIRC every battle consists of three rounds and I guess whoever wins more rounds wins in the end or something like that. It could be even more complicated, Sigurd is pretty clever and noone knows what formulae he comes up with when he sits in his dark chamber and does....dark things...

[Yaropolk]

Andres mentioned that he rolls dice for the battle results. I can think of 2 ways he could have implemented this:

Roll dice x number of times, then add battle score to the sum. Assuming these aren't 27 sided nerd dice, each point of difference between battle scores contributes roughly 1/6 or 16% to victory odds.

The other technique would be to roll dice the same number of times as your battle score and add the rolls up. This will give more advantage to the higher score since for every point of combat rating he will get 1-6 more points. Someone smarter than me can figure out the odds

I think Andres suggested that lower battle ratings can defeat higher battle ratings is possibly due to percentage.

Eg: Equal % = 50% Chance for each person

Rating=-0 opponent= 50% ? Player X = 5 Player Y = 5
Rating=-2 opponent= 40%? Player X = 4 Player Y= 6
Rating =-4 Opponent= 30%? Player X = 3 Player Y = 7
Rating = -7 Opponent = 15%? Player X = 2 Player Y = 9
Rating = -9 Opponent = 10%? Player X = 1 Player Y = 10
Rating = -10 Opponent = 5%? Player X = 0 Player Y = 10
Rating= -11 Opponent = 0%? Player X = -1 Player Y = 10

I presume this to be a rough idea of how things are probably going for duels.

Dunno who to vote.

[Gregoshi]

Is it possible for the mafias to have a forged pms? Like a cover pms?
I think they do in most mafia games. So pm doesn't give us much clues.

The role PMs thus far posted seem very familiar to this dead geisha-who-was-pretending-to-be-a-samurai. So, much like this modest geisha, they reveal little about what's underneath and what goes on under the covers. I shan't kiss and tell. I'm not that kind of girl. But I do know how to flirt.

[Beskar]

Alright, I am back from my exams, I will be reading through the thread now.

[atheotes]

The role PMs thus far posted seem very familiar to this dead geisha-who-was-pretending-to-be-a-samurai. So, much like this modest geisha, they reveal little about what's underneath and what goes on under the covers. I shan't kiss and tell. I'm not that kind of girl. But I do know how to flirt.

So did you get a cover role?

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Yeesh, the duel result is a perfectly legitimate reason to lynch me and there's not much more I can say about that one. The role PM thing is getting exasperating though. I've never played another game in which pressuring a lurker and exposing townie role PMs was considered scummy.

The role PMs thus far posted seem very familiar to this dead geisha-who-was-pretending-to-be-a-samurai. So, much like this modest geisha, they reveal little about what's underneath and what goes on under the covers. I shan't kiss and tell. I'm not that kind of girl. But I do know how to flirt.

This is confirmation that cover pm's were sent out--there was no confirmation before this. TinCow's contradictions go in a full circle. First it is proof of innocence, then it is no proof at all, then it is back to being proof again.

[Wishazu]

Asking what is the highest known battle rating, using this as your reasoning:



What makes this strange, is that for someone who doesn't want to wait around and be murdered in your sleep, you've made awfully few challenges. None in fact. Add to that the fact that your voting reasons haven't been the most convincing and you're suspicious enough for my vote.

Of course, I just wanted the guy (CountArach) who has everyones scores to let me know whether mine was a good or bad rating. I fail to see how that is suspicious. I have not challenged anyone because I have since discovered from a post by Sasaki that my battle rating is complete rubbish. Waiting around to be murdered in my sleep actually sounds like a better, long term strategy for survival than attempting to fight duels that I simply cannot win.