Iranian Elections

[Marshal Murat]

Just a little rant (I finished Robert Massie's "Dreadnought, powerful stuff):
As I read all this stuff about Iranian protests about the "elections", riots, government repression of media groups, I get the distinct impression of "screwed if you do, screwed if you don't". I bring this up because of the intense dissatisfaction that I get watching all happen and know that we're (West mainly US) is caught between the skillet and fire.

If we do fail to ratify the results, declare this a fraudulent election, and support the Iranians in their struggle, we'll gain some support (Germany and France seem to be sitting on the fence despite an official "EU" response) and maybe work out a suitable agreement, hopefully leading to a successful detente between the Iranian and American governments.

If we do ratify the results, we're condemning Iran to the same fate that befell Hungary in the 1950s, when they tried to not only break away from the USSR's hold, but to also get US assistance, which we wouldn't provide (for obvious reasons, but it's not that great either ya know?).

Those protesting Iranians are counting on assistance from the West, not because we'll be securing oil, but because we're actually grabbing a pair and doing something about human injustice in this world. Doing something that we couldn't do in Hungary, doing something we were unwilling to do in Rwanda.

endrant

I hope that those in Washington make a good choice, so we can all learn something.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Some posts from Sullivan's blog:

WE NEED HELP. WE NEED SUPPORT. Time is not on our side, waiting and making sure means more casualties, more disappointment, more brutality.

The most essential need of young Iranians is to be recognized by US government. They need them not to accept the results and do not talk to A.N government as an official, approved one. They need help by sending true information. All the medias are under arrest or close control. Help them have the information.

They only try to show the fraud to the world. Help them please. You can not imagine the level of brutality we saw these two awful days.

Message From Mousavi

Via my contacts at the Farsi-speaking BBC, a telephone plea:

I AM UNDER EXTREME PRESSURE TO ACCEPT THE RESULTS OF THE SHAM ELECTION. THEY HAVE CUT ME OFF FROM ANY COMMUNICATION WITH PEOPLE AND AM UNDER SURVEILLANCE. I ASK THE PEOPLE TO STAY IN THE STREETS BUT AVOID VIOLENCE

It seems there will be no successful riots. The regime is not afraid to use brutality, and they have the power.

So the question becomes - what can we (or the US) do? Would it help to issue a statement calling Mahmoud's win bogus and saying he is not recognized as the legitimate president?

CR

[seireikhaan]

Some posts from Sullivan's blog:




It seems there will be no successful riots. The regime is not afraid to use brutality, and they have the power.

So the question becomes - what can we (or the US) do? Would it help to issue a statement calling Mahmoud's win bogus and saying he is not recognized as the legitimate president?

CR

As unlikely as this possibility seems, the election could be used as an excuse to build up international support to oust the Iranian regime. However, there's a few problems- 1) The US isn't likely to stomach another war in the middle east, 2) I doubt NATO wants involvement in this, because NATO is essentially made up of about half free-riders, and 3) There's the definite possibility that any conflict could spark a big, big mess.

Most likely nothing will happen.

[Beskar]

It is not that NATO is half free-riders, it is the fact NATO is more about defence than offence. In other words, if mother Russia steam rolls into a NATO country, the Jet Riders of the Wild West zoom across the shores and make them disappear.

[seireikhaan]

It is not that NATO is half free-riders, it is the fact NATO is more about defence than offence. In other words, if mother Russia steam rolls into a NATO country, the Jet Riders of the Wild West zoom across the shores and make them disappear.

I consider the defensive nature of the alliance to basically be a system of free riding- most of the nations in NATO benefit much, much more from protection afforded to them then they could themselves offer to a fellow NATO member in the event of an attack.

[Beskar]

Probably true, but more the merrier, right?

[seireikhaan]

Probably true, but more the merrier, right?

Well, sorta. The whole "purpose" of NATO is a bit ill-defined at the moment. However, more people agreeing not to kill each other is always good.

And to clarify- I didn't mean to sound accusatory towards smaller nations in NATO- they made a smart decision for themselves for the most part. I was trying more to clarify why I thought they wouldn't dive headfirst into Iran.

[Hosakawa Tito]

There's no way the US will militarily intervene in Iran; we don't have the resources, men, and/or the political will nor the right to do so. That would be giving the current regime there just what they want & need, someone to blame their failures & shortcomings on. 30 years ago they had a legitimate grievence about outside interference, but not this time, though they are certainly going to be complaining of "outside interference" this time too. Nope, the self-delusion has been exposed, and the current regime is no better than the one it replaced, no surprises there. The protester shouts of "Death to the dictators" are an echo from the past during the reign of the Shah. Now the old revolutionaries have come full circle and history repeats itself, except this time they have no one to blame but themselves.

It's difficult to watch and disheartening to see such brutality inflicted upon people who expected better treatment from their government, but I can't say I'm absolutely shocked. Those who hold absolute power tend to go to violent extremes to keep it.

Hopefully the nations of the free world will have the political will to "call a spade a spade" because you can be certain that there will be support for this fraud coming from like minded regimes.

[Marshal Murat]

Ayatollah orders fraud probe

Iran's state television said Monday that the supreme leader ordered an investigation into claims of fraud in last week's presidential election.

Ayatollah Ali Khamenei ordered the powerful Guardian Council to examine the allegations by pro-reform candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi, who has claimed widespread vote rigging in Friday's election. The government declared President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad the winner in a landslide victory.

It was a stunning turnaround for Iran's most powerful figure, who previously welcomed the results.

Very interesting and very smart decision.

[Conqueror]

It's smart alright. Of corse, if the election was rigged then so will be the investigation, but in either case it's an effort to calm the protests.

[Furunculus]

Just a little rant (I finished Robert Massie's "Dreadnought, powerful stuff):

great book, i have a copy.

[Lemur]

Nate Silver digs through the supposed election results province-by-province. Just the sort of thing he's good for. Upshot: "The statistical evidence is intriguing but, ultimately, inconclusive."

-edit-

Michael Totten, an independent journo, is cranking out the reports. Unfortunately, his site is overwhelmed. Google cache here.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Two pollsters speak of their pre-election poll that showed Mahmoud Imadinnerjacket on course to win, saying there might have been no fraud at all:

"The election results in Iran may reflect the will of the Iranian people. Many experts are claiming that the margin of victory of incumbent President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad was the result of fraud or manipulation, but our nationwide public opinion survey of Iranians three weeks before the vote showed Ahmadinejad leading by a more than 2 to 1 margin -- greater than his actual apparent margin of victory in Friday's election.
...
The fact may simply be that the re-election of President Ahmadinejad is what the Iranian people wanted."

Wow, great work there cretins. And it's being re-reported by Reuters with no mention of why there was fraud.

And a video of a huge rally of Mousavi supporters.

CR

[Kagemusha]

In my view it is up to Iranian people. If the majority wants enough to overthrow the government, surely there will be outside help and resources available for them to do so.
As far as i remember. It was the people of Iran who overthrew the Shah also back in 70´s.

[Xiahou]

I consider the defensive nature of the alliance to basically be a system of free riding- most of the nations in NATO benefit much, much more from protection afforded to them then they could themselves offer to a fellow NATO member in the event of an attack.

Of course the sum of the defense they'd get from allies is greater than what they could provide- that's the whole point. An entire group of nations has more defensive capability than a single member.

Ayatollah orders fraud probe

Very interesting and very smart decision.

Interesting indeed.

[tibilicus]

I'm currently following someone's twitter who appears to be a student inside Iran. I will post some of his recent updates on the situation.

# Bahram81German ARD TV "more than 1.5 million in the streets" #iranelectionhalf a minute ago from web

# Bahram KBahram81what do you mean who's shooting? who do you think has the guns? #iranelection8 minutes ago from web

# Bahram KBahram81BBC, gunshot heard around Freedom sqr. demo. turning violent #iranelection9 minutes ago from web

# Bahram KBahram81CNN website pics still suck, outdated, zoomed it. use wide lenses you boons #cnnfail #iranelection12 minutes ago from web

# Bahram KBahram81(VIDEO) CNN finally woke up http://bit.ly/k8J2a #iranelection14 minutes ago from web

# Bahram KBahram81Very bad news from Kermanshaah, brutal suppression of the protests #iranelection

It appears that the authorities are starting to move in and suppress those who refuse to accept Ahmadinejads victory.

A sickening situation indeed, lets hope the protesters wont go down quietly, the re-election of Ahmadinejad is a threat to us all, not just Iranians.

[Marshal Murat]

According to ABC

The poll, done by telephone last month, found 34 percent support for Ahmadinejad vs. 14 percent for Mir Hossein Mousavi. The incumbent led by “a more than 2 to 1 margin – greater than his actual margin of apparent victory in Friday’s election,” today’s op-ed says. “Our scientific sampling from across all 30 of Iran’s provinces showed Ahmadinejad well ahead.”

Strange, then, that TFT’s analysis of these same data last month predicted a runoff.

The problem with both analyses is the vast number of respondents who declined to answer the vote preference question at all. Fifty percent either said they had no opinion (27 percent), refused to answer (15 percent) or favored “none” of the candidates (8 percent) – higher levels of non-response than on any other question in the survey.

Washington Post weighs in

Methodologically, this survey passes muster as it's relatively straightforward to pull a good sample of the Iranian population, using the country's publicly available population counts and listed telephone exchanges. But the poll was conducted from May 11 to 20, well before the spike in support for Mousavi his supporters claim...
One should be enormously wary of the current value of a poll taken so far before such a heated contest, particularly one where more than half of voters did not express an opinion.

[seireikhaan]

Of course the sum of the defense they'd get from allies is greater than what they could provide- that's the whole point. An entire group of nations has more defensive capability than a single member.

Indeed. That's basically what I was getting at.

[tibilicus]

The tweets I posted before have now been confirmed by the BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8101098.stm

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned but where the hell is the leader of the free world? I would of expected an official statement from the US by now.

[Viking]

A bit early...

It's said that a group of Mousavi supporters assaulted a Basji base and that these then got shot at. We'll see.

Sources:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsO...14340720090615
http://www.afp.com/afpcom/en/taglibr...fp-online-news

[KukriKhan]

The tweets I posted before have now been confirmed by the BBC. http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/mid...st/8101098.stm

I'm not sure if this has been mentioned but where the hell is the leader of the free world? I would of expected an official statement from the US by now.

There have been a few:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2009...ection-results

Obama's spokesman, Robert Gibbs, maintained a cautious approach when questioned by reporters today, refusing to go beyond an expression of concern about the conduct of the election.

Gibbs said: "Obviously, we continue to have concern about what we've seen. Obviously, the Iranians are looking into this, as well. We continue to be heartened by the enthusiasm of young people in Iran.

Obama's presidential opponent last year, John McCain, today expressed disappointment with the apparent outcome of the Iranian election. He told CNN: "We should speak out in opposition to what was clearly a corrupt election."

So far: "Easy does it" seems the current White House strategy.

[Don Corleone]

The current U.S. administration will not challenge the results. The closest they'll get to that has already come and on.... sending Crazy Joe out to the Sunday morning news shows.

I'm very interested in what English Assassin has to say on the matter, as he's got some pretty good insights and first-hand data. What do you say, old boy, you out there lurking on this one?

[Scurvy]

To be fair, its very difficult for the US to do anything other than 'call' for peace.

There has been no conclusive proof of election rigging, certainly not enough for the US to weigh in, and it would probably do more bad than good, as the US is hardly popular within Iran.

[Hosakawa Tito]

For now it's probably best to keep a low profile and not actively interfere. Keep the focus of Iranians to their own society. The mullahs need a diversion from this mess and being able to blame external enemies & foreign media for instigating this fight would be divine intervention for them. Don't give them that boogey-man, this is a self-inflicted internal problem. If they fear a loyalist like Moussavi then the mullahs are really losing touch with reality.

[Lemur]

To state the blindingly obvious: If we (the U.S.) throw in behind the reformers, this will give the mullahs and the military a chance to paint the protesters as American stooges. Expressing direct support for them would be a very dicey thing, and would probably backfire.

Sorry to say, the Iranians need to do this themselves. There's precious little we can do to aid and abet.

[tibilicus]

has anyone heard anything "official" about the violence relating to pro government militias? All I have at the moment is "tweets" from Iranians claiming pro government militias are attacking protesters. Obviously i'm taking such news with a grain of salt due to the fact non of it is official/ can be verified.

[TinCow]

To state the blindingly obvious: If we (the U.S.) throw in behind the reformers, this will give the mullahs and the military a chance to paint the protesters as American stooges. Expressing direct support for them would be a very dicey thing, and would probably backfire.

Sorry to say, the Iranians need to do this themselves. There's precious little we can do to aid and abet.

Obama is doing the right thing by staying out of this. Backing the protesters publicly would only hurt their cause. We have to deal with the Iranian leaders regardless of who they are, and backing a potential revolution that fails would serious harm our ability to influence them in the future. This is no different than Hungary in '56, Prague in '68, or China in '89. We may seriously support the protesters and hope they are successful, but there's realistically nothing much we can do except watch and wait.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Obama has always expected he'll be working with "dinner jacket" as the public voice. Khamanei is still the key decision maker -- so little in the way of major change will occur.

Supporting the election-dissenters -- aside from a call for review in the interests of fairness -- is, I agree, counter-productive. Either we dispute the succession and declare war (don't hold your breathe waiting for that one), or leave it up to the Iranians.

[Marshal Murat]

A nice satirical look at the Iranian protests

Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad paid tribute to the "enthusiasm and energy of the Iranian people" today, claiming that the hundreds of thousands of people jamming the streets of Tehran were hoping to audition for "Iran's Got Talent."

In a sign that the Iranian government is cracking down on dissent, the Interior Ministry banned most Facebook applications today, except for the "What Ayatollah Are You Most Like" game.

[CountArach]

To state the blindingly obvious: If we (the U.S.) throw in behind the reformers, this will give the mullahs and the military a chance to paint the protesters as American stooges. Expressing direct support for them would be a very dicey thing, and would probably backfire.

Sorry to say, the Iranians need to do this themselves. There's precious little we can do to aid and abet.

Yep. This isn't the West's fight. A solely Iranian revolution is needed.