Iranian Elections

[Marshal Murat]

The picture of Iranian Policemen reminded me of these guys.

[Evil_Maniac From Mars]

The picture of Iranian Policemen reminded me of these guys.

I have to say that a lot of the video reminded me of the DDR.

[Xiahou]

Are people making too much of this? Barring a complete revolution, whichever candidate wins we're not likely to see any major policy changes from Iran are we?

[Hosakawa Tito]

Hope can be infectious, but whoever does win is still just a front man for the mullahs. I just like the fact that for a change they don't have the West to blame for anything. Even the Soviet Union couldn't rule solely by fear & intimidation forever.

[Kadagar_AV]

I urge people to do their outmost to support the demonstrations...

As mentioned, not cause it will lead to great changes short-time...

However, giving the Iranian population a sence of hope, showing them they have support can in a longer perspective lead to great things in the middle east.

my thoughts go to the students being killed as we speak

[Marshal Murat]

Are people making too much of this? Barring a complete revolution, whichever candidate wins we're not likely to see any major policy changes from Iran are we?

This whole protest is a step by the "liberal" moderate Iranians, actually mobilizing and acting out against a the repressive government. Iranians are fed up with being poor, unemployed, and having their government run by a militaristic nutjob. Many Iranian commentators liken this the Revolution of 1979, this is a revolt against a "coup" by Ahjmadenijad's miltarist/populist followers. They want change, and while Mousavi isn't a Western-phile at heart, he isn't going to try and wipe Israel off the map; with the current American administration we're looking for greater dialogue and more open relations than had under previous administrations (who knows, we might see a loosening of trade restrictions). You're right in that there won't be major policy changes, but it'll relax the tensions between the two countries (US & Iran), a "reset" sorely needed to bring about greater peace and stability in the Middle East, if only the first step

To avert an escalation, Ayatollah Khamenei may have to find a way either to persuade the losers and their backers and followers that the results were genuine and fair, or to pacify them by other means - perhaps by curbing Mr Ahmadinejad or diluting his policies in some way.

The mullahs have to either curb the power of Ahmadenijad to prevent him from even usurping their powers, or have Mousavi elected.

[KarlXII]

My thoughts:

Were the elections rigged? Only Anotherdinnerjacket, God and the Iranian Government know.

Has this been an important moment in Iranian history?

Absolutely.

[tibilicus]

Here's some images for you all. Shows what these militia and pro Adinnerjacket thugs are up to. http://picasaweb.google.com/iranonfi...ranUniComplex#


Also a video for you all. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BjczWD8F0U

[Marshal Murat]

McClatchy Newspaper, I've never heard of them before so take a grain of salt with this post.

Senior Ayatollah Condemns Voting as Rigged

Supporters of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his main rival in the disputed presidential election, Mir Hossein Mousavi, massed in competing rallies Tuesday as the country's most senior Islamic cleric threw his weight behind opposition charges that Ahmadinejad's re-election was rigged.

"No one in their right mind can believe" the official results from Friday's contest, Grand Ayatollah Hossein Ali Montazeri said of the landslide victory claimed by Ahmadinejad. Montazeri accused the regime of handling Mousavi's charges of fraud and the massive protests of his backers "in the worst way possible."

[Lemur]

Are people making too much of this? Barring a complete revolution, whichever candidate wins we're not likely to see any major policy changes from Iran are we?

Impossible to judge. The protesters are demanding far more than a recount at this point. Very hard to squeeze the toothpaste back in the bottle when hundreds of thousands have joined together in public opposition to the regime.

Remember that 50% of Iran's population is under 25. Change may not only be possible, it may be inevitable.

The senior cleric denouncing the results is big. Muy grande.

-edit-

National Review's Seth Leibsohn gets it almost perfectly wrong:

'The U.S. Doesn't Want to be Seen As Meddling'

That's the take-away line from President Obama on Iran. That's not going to do it. One can imagine hundreds (if not thousands) of protesters in Iran asking "Where is the U.S.? What does Obama think?"

Really? Is that what the streets full of young Iranians are asking? They're wondering what Obama thinks? Really? Then he concludes with: "This may not be Iran's Tiananmen moment, but it sure is ours." What the **** does that mean?

I've seen some stupid, wrong-headed comments on how the U.S. should behave in this situation, but this takes Best In Show.

[Kadagar_AV]

Lemur, to Seth Leibsohn's defence.. One might argue that there ARE a hundred, if not a thousand people wondering just that.

Of course, at the same time HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS are demonstrating out on the streets...

[Marshal Murat]

It's the palpable sense of frustration about the situation, as thousands are repressed by paramilitary troops without being able to assist (see rant) in any meaningful way. I can only assume it stems from the Boston Massacre. The Peloponnesian War is a perfect example (as I've come to realize) as democratic forces led a revolution, were supported by Athenian troops, and the Democrats slaughtered whole swaths of Oligarchs. So the best thing we can do is, while it pangs me, is to wait-and-watch, and hope that there aren't too many human rights abuses before the end of this.

[Incongruous]

It will change something, but not enough. It will change the Theocrats view that Iran can be handled easily when they start taking too many blatant liberties. It will not change the overall power structure of Iran.

Also, I think both Britain and the U.S.A may be hoping too much, if we think that Iranian democracy will be pro-Western, many Iranians still remember their last democratic leader, and that he was ousted by a C.I.A-SIS coup and replaced with the brutal and idiotic Shah. A truly democratic leader would probabaly look alot like Mossadeq, rather than Karzai.

[Hosakawa Tito]

Impossible to judge. The protesters are demanding far more than a recount at this point. Very hard to squeeze the toothpaste back in the bottle when hundreds of thousands have joined together in public opposition to the regime.

Remember that 50% of Iran's population is under 25. Change may not only be possible, it may be inevitable.

The senior cleric denouncing the results is big. Muy grande.

-edit-

National Review's Seth Leibsohn gets it almost perfectly wrong:

'The U.S. Doesn't Want to be Seen As Meddling'

That's the take-away line from President Obama on Iran. That's not going to do it. One can imagine hundreds (if not thousands) of protesters in Iran asking "Where is the U.S.? What does Obama think?"

Really? Is that what the streets full of young Iranians are asking? They're wondering what Obama thinks? Really? Then he concludes with: "This may not be Iran's Tiananmen moment, but it sure is ours." What the **** does that mean?

I've seen some stupid, wrong-headed comments on how the U.S. should behave in this situation, but this takes Best In Show.

Rachel Maddow and Trita Parsi interview - first video link. "Strategery for Dummies"

[Kagemusha]

I see hope in this. If the people of Iran are truly fed up with their government, then it is only matter of time before new Iran emerges. I hope this will be the start of the end for theocracy in Iran.

[Banquo's Ghost]

It's an extraordinary time.

As the fume-filled dusk fell over the north Tehran streets, the crowds grew wilder. I listened to a heavily bearded Basiji officer exorting his men to assault the 10,000 Mousavi men and women on the other side of the police line. "We must defend our country now, just as we did in the Iran-Iraq war," he shouted above the uproar. But the Ahmadinejad man trying to calm him down, shouted back: "We are all fellow citizens! Let's not have a tragedy. We must have unity."

[CountArach]

If you want an idea of some of the numbers turning up to the protests and the demographics they represent check out these pictures. Mostly young people (And a hell of a lot of them), but also a mix of older and middle aged people as well.

Additionally several reformst clerics are holding a rally on Saturday at which Mousavi is expected to speak. If he turns up and says the right things, then this could well be the turning point where this becomes far more revolutionary.

It also might be worth keeping an eye on this

[Prodigal]

Are people making too much of this? Barring a complete revolution, whichever candidate wins we're not likely to see any major policy changes from Iran are we?

Been thinking the exact same thing, as far as foreign policy goes & attitudes to the "west" it will doubtless make not one iota of difference who is in power.

From the on going protests, the sheer size of them, it certainly appears that the voters think that it would make a pretty considerable difference to them though.

The whole election stinks like a fish that's been in the sun too long, whoever decided the winner made a seriously bad call.

There are how many dead now 8? Attacks on universities have been carrying on over night, its likely to get much worse, just hope that it doesn't end in the same way as burma.

[CountArach]

Are people making too much of this? Barring a complete revolution, whichever candidate wins we're not likely to see any major policy changes from Iran are we?

Foreign policy-wise no, probably not, but why should that be a concern to us? Why should that change my judgement?