Iranian Elections

**Marshal Murat** · 06-21-2009, 20:37

What I have to say that is interesting is the subtle changes in how reporters are viewing the situation. I was reading one HuffPost article about Rasfanjani and the "Assembly of Experts", the one council endowed with the power to remove the Ayatollah. In the first couple days, reporters always said "Assembly of Experts with the power to remove the Ayatollah, but that's not likely to happen." to "Assembly of Experts with the power to remove the Ayatollah".

Perception is key to winning any political struggle. Before these riots, when only "students" took to the streets, it was indeed a minority. With thousands of Iranians in Tehran (along with Shiraz and other cities) moving against the Iranian government, it's hard to say "these are only soccer hooligans and terrorists."

I don't have a source for this nugget of info, but during the Russian Civil War, the Reds called themselves "Bolsheviks" not because they were a majority but they wanted to project the image of massive influence, which made many Western leaders skeptical of supporting the White Army because it was perceived that they lacked widespread support that the Bolshevik "majority" seemed to maintain.

**Adrian II** · 06-21-2009, 20:49

Originally Posted by Marshal Murat

I don't have a source for this nugget of info, but during the Russian Civil War, the Reds called themselves "Bolsheviks" not because they were a majority but they wanted to project the image of massive influence, which made many Western leaders skeptical of supporting the White Army because it was perceived that they lacked widespread support that the Bolshevik "majority" seemed to maintain.

There are many sources for that episode, though not online that I know of. The term refers to a split in the Russian Social-Democratic Labour Party at their Second Congress which took place in 1902 in Brussels. Because of the location a lot of radical hotheads (who had been banned from Russie proper) were attending. The more moderate marxists were more likely to be in Russia at that time or had considerable trouble making it. Lenin and his ilk wanted to turn the party into a quasi-military organisation. They got a small majority, hence called themselves Bolsheviks (those in the majority) as opposed to the minority Mensheviks (those in the minority). So the term Bolsheviks refers to a majority within the party ranks not within Russia as a whole, though they would have embraced the latter suggestion without hesitation.

They never had a majority in any regular election. They were a clear minority in the Russian Constituent Assembly election of 1917. But Lenin mobilised a bunch of sailors and disbanded the assembly by force.

**Lemur** · 06-21-2009, 21:37

Implications: "In this contest, there is a claim on both sides for the spirit of the 1979 revolution. But there is also a recognition, I think for Mousavi, that the Islamicness of the Islamic Republic has led Iran to this depraved state of affairs. I find it very hard to believe that if Mousavi's movement succeeds there will still be a supreme leader. He has talked about returning Iran's government to its people, and he is openly defying now Khamenei. In Persian thought there is a concept called Farr, the aura around the emperor. Roger Cohen wrote about this idea yesterday. Well it's gone. And that aura, this notion that the people's institutions, the presidency and the majlis must be checked by clerics, is gone too. None of this means that Islam will not thrive in Iran, but it will be a quietist Islam, the kind advocated by Montazeri and Sistani. Khomeinism, if Mousavi succeeds, is finished."

**Alexander the Pretty Good** · 06-22-2009, 00:44

And that would be an auspicious thing.

**ICantSpellDawg** · 06-22-2009, 02:23

Although Mousavi seems like an opportunist, sometimes opportunists are able to channel real emotion and reform - and get lucky. Hopefully the government buckles without too much more bloodshed. This could be a great lesson for human rights in China and the Arab States if it works. Only North Korea seems to do repression correctly these days - once you give a yard, people get smart and demand a country.