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Thread: Democratic Party Boosted in WA; Jailed Felons can Vote

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    Nobody expects the Senior Member Lemur's Avatar
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    Default Re: Democratic Party Boosted in WA; Jailed Felons can Vote

    Quote Originally Posted by Evil_Maniac From Mars View Post
    Isn't it possible, then, that your poll works both ways? That in this specific election, these groups were more likely to vote Democrat because they had a higher proportion of convicted criminals?
    No, sorry, statistics don't work that way. If the population of criminals is somewhere around 3% of the nation, then they constitute a minority of a minority.

    Let's put it this way; let's say you're a member of a law firm, Dewey, Chetum & Howe. There are twenty guys in the law firm. They vote 30% Dem, 70% Repub. As it happens, their demographic also votes 30% Dem, 70% Repub. The members of Dewey, Cheatum & Howe are not causal in their demographic; they're too small a part. The twenty lawyers do not "create" their demo's voting patterns.

    In fact, if criminals were to create or cause a voting trend, they would need to vote overwhelmingly in a direction. Instead of sixty-some percent voting Dem, they would need to vote in the eightieth or ninetieth percentile, and their turnout would need to be well above the national average. Then they would create a statistical shift. But by voting in line with their demographic and ethnicity, they do nothing but pad out the Dem numbers in a not-terribly-helpful way.
    Last edited by Lemur; 01-08-2010 at 00:34.

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