Departed Dethy Mafia II [Concluded]

[Methos]

My results on Double A were 'Guilty'. It was just that word, no quote or anything.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

So:

Methos gets a guilty on Double A
Sasaki gets an innocent on Secura
Secura gets a guilty on Sasaki
Double A gets a guilty on john (known innocent)

Based on the results, either Double is guilty, I am guilty, or one of Secura/Methos/Double A lied. So, we know nothing.

I think getting the results on the deceased is a big benefit to us. If indeed we do get results and Double A isn't lying. We have to make sure we do that, everyone needs to be investigated.

Something like:

Double A investigates Sasaki
Sasaki investigates Double A
Methos investigates Secura
Secura investigates Methos


I'm don't think it makes any difference what order we do it in.

Vote:No lynch

[Secura]

Wow, that is an interesting turn-up for the books.

Our results suggest the following based upon that conclusion:

Paranoid: Secura, Double A, Methos, JHT
Naive: Sasaki, JHT
Insane: Secura, Double A, Methos, JHT
Normal: Sasaki, Methos, Secura, JHT

Naturally we don't know which type of officer JHT was, so we have him down as being a possibility for all four.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

There can be three guilty's, if the normal cop investigates the mole. Or three innocents if the insane cop does.

[Secura]

Hmmm, I see. You have pointed out something I didn't consider.

I was going to say that if we were to assume that you're lying, then there would be no innocent results at all, right? Which would be impossible, no? Even at this stage, there would have to be one innocent result. I was going to say that proves you as innocent, but you've opened my eyes to another possibility.

Thanks. :3

[Methos]

Considering we are down an officer, you would have either:

1) One innocent result, two guilty, whichever the fake chose
2) Two innocent results, one guilty, whichever the fake chose.

So this means that either Secura, Double A, or myself is the mafia. My caving day kind of screwed things up, because had the mafia been able to wait, doing a two and two would have kept everyone a suspect. Right now I'm inclined to believe Sasaki is innocent, assuming Secura is correct on the one and three.

Sasaki cannot be the Paranoid or Insane Officer.
Secura cannot be the Naive or Normal Officer.

I disagree. Your conclusion is based on us believing you to be a townie. I'm still hesitant to believe so, so your conclusions have no foundation.

I'm tired and starting to get sore, so I'm not thinking clearly. I do agree with the Vote: No Lynch.

[Secura]

So this means that either Secura, Double A, or myself is the mafia. My caving day kind of screwed things up, because had the mafia been able to wait, doing a two and two would have kept everyone a suspect. Right now I'm inclined to believe Sasaki is innocent, assuming Secura is correct on the one and three.

No, this actually doesn't hold true; Sasaki found a flaw in this logic, and I believe that his opened the possibility that he is the mafia again. I actually thought that, as the sole person to vote innocent, he was not the mafia at all.

However, if you consider that you, myself and Double A are the Insane (gets their results wrong), Paranoid (always finds people guilty) and Normal cops (in whatever order)... it's perfectly plausible for there to be three guilty verdicts and a single innocent. That also indicates who the mafia is, if you work it out.

I disagree. Your conclusion is based on us believing you to be a townie. I'm still hesitant to believe so, so your conclusions have no foundation.

My conclusions are based upon what I know, and that is that I am innocent. You are entitled to your own conclusions, naturally, but I request solely that you keep an open mind. Personally, I believe that my reasoning is pointing towards Sasaki, but I think another round of results would be the best means of finding out for certain.

FoS: Sasaki Kojiro
Vote: No Lynch

[Beskar]

Why did I post?

[Double A]

Uh... are you in the game, "Beskie?"

Right, so if I get guilty on Sasaki, that either means I'm paranoid and he's innocent, or I'm paranoid and he's guilty, and if I get innocent then he's guilty... it could be worse.

[Captain Blackadder]

Once again Elerby gathers everyone together. This time he has enlisted the greatest technology to help in discovering who is the rat. Someone speaks up "Whomever has rats following them is the rat" No don't be crazy no one would use the much obvious imagery." Ok then is anyone made a decision on who the rat is. No they reply we need to look a bit further but we are sure we will find him before too many of us die. Ok replies Elerby as long as I am not in the firing line it is fine by me.


Begin Night 2

[Secura]

Double A investigates Sasaki
Sasaki investigates Double A
Methos investigates Secura
Secura investigates Methos

This isn't good investigating. Say that, hypothetically, Methos was to die; his result on me couldn't be revealed, and my result on him wouldn't carry so much water if he was dead. I think:

Double A investigates Sasaki
Sasaki investigates Methos
Methos investigates Secura
Secura investigates Double A

...is better. The same structure as we had before. I'll send my order for Double A.

[Methos]

I agree with Secura, so I'm investigating Secura.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I'll investigate methos then.

[Captain Blackadder]

Night Two

Trooper Barrigan is waiting at night time he is concerned for he is the other mole in the department and was supposed to do some things if the other mole was discovered.However it appears like he is never going to get that chance for on this night he is being followed by someone. Just as he is about to leave a man stands behind pulls out a pistol and shoots him dead. Barrigan feels no pain and dies within seconds.

MOD NOTE BARRIGAN (METHOS) WAS A TOWNIE IT IS JUST BEING A WHILE SINCE I WATCHED THE MOVIE AND I HAD FORGOT THAT BARRIGAN WAS A TRAITOR AS WELL.


BEGIN DAY 2

[Secura]

Double A is innocent, according to investigation results.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I got an innocent on methos.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Running through the possibilities, I think I was right and we should have just lynched from the start. The investigation thing was fun though.

I don't see anyway to legitimately determine who the mafia is based on investigations. Almost a 1/3 of them are going to be falsified.

[johnhughthom]

MOD NOTE BARRIGAN (METHOS) WAS A TOWNIE IT IS JUST BEING A WHILE SINCE I WATCHED THE MOVIE AND I HAD FORGOT THAT BARRIGAN WAS A TRAITOR AS WELL.

How could you have forgotten that?? I nearly fell off my sofa when he killed Costigan. I had been wondering if he might be in the game as mafia instead of Sullivan.

Lynch Sasaki.

[Secura]

Where's Double A?

His results are paramount to figuring this out. :<

[Methos]

I don't see anyway to legitimately determine who the mafia is based on investigations. Almost a 1/3 of them are going to be falsified.

Whoever the mafia is they've been paying attention to our discussion as well, so why not look for what is missing. Look at the victims and who they were supposed to investigate and/or who that would have helped had they're results been known.

[Double A]

Alright, I got guilty results on Sasaki... I'm probably paranoid, since Sasaki or one of the dead guys is apparently the loony.

By the way, I'm normally at school from ~7am to ~3:30pm EST, which is why I didn't post until just now.

[Secura]

Hmmm, that would make sense, Double A. I had actually believed that I might have been the Insane Cop, which would mean that Sasaki is innocent and you are guilty.

However, if we agree that you're innocent and thus you are the Paranoid Cop, that would automatically make Methos the Insane Cop, as he got a guilty read on you. That would mean that I am, in fact, the Normal Cop, with my results stating that you are innocent. From there, the results speak for themselves; johnhughthom would be the Naive Cop and Sasaki would be the mole.

vote: Sasaki Kojiro

[Double A]

Or that he's the naive, john was normal, and you are lying... both seem plausible to me.

You both seem scummy to me, but I haven't played many games with you, and Sasaki always acts scummy.

I'm just gonna wait and see what Sasaki has to say about the matter.

[Secura]

I believe that Sasaki is the scum and have done so for the entire course of the game; I had some doubts, especially when he was the only person to claim an innocent result, because at that point I ruled him out entirely and thought it might've been you. However, he found the flaw in my thinking and actually reaffirmed, in my mind, that he could be the mafia after all.

At the very start of the thread, Sasaki pounced on my posts which were, to me, not really that scummy at all; it was my attempts to defend these posts that ultimately cast me in a scummier light. The extent to which he has maintained that I am the guilty party, even before yourself or Methos had posted at all, did little to ease my beliefs. Personally, I wouldn't make two long posts like that right off the bat if I was scum, which let's be honest is akin to running around Germany doing the goose-step; you're going to draw attention to yourself, the very last thing a mafia would want.

I believe that I have been kept alive this long solely for the reason that I make a convenient shield for the true mafia because of my somewhat scummy defense of myself. If Sasaki had killed me in an early night phase, he would have made himself stand out as the scummiest person. I knew this was going to happen and knew that it would essentially boil down to who the third person believed most; myself or Sasaki.

I have been completely honest for the entire game, and while I might not be as intelligent as Sasaki, I would like to think that I have at least got the measure of him on this one; he is the mafia. I genuinely believe that you're innocent, and I also believe that Sasaki is going to vote for me as has probably been the intention from the get-go.

I guess what I'm saying is that the decision of the game is in your hands; whichever way you vote determines if the town wins or loses. I hope you make the right decision.

tl; dr - Remember Rule #1.

[Double A]

But it's not like Sasaki to mess up, or is it? I'm not really sure, he normally gets D1 lynched in games we're in together, so I don't know.

Like I said, I'm going to wait till he pulls his case, in the meantime, fos: both of you

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Methos gets a guilty on Double A
Sasaki gets an innocent on Secura
Secura gets a guilty on Sasaki
Double A gets a guilty on john (known innocent)

Secura gets innocent on Double A
Sasaki gets innocent on methos (known innocent)
Double A gets guilty on Sasaki

Going by claimed results:
Sasaki cannot be paranoid or insane
Secura cannot be naive or paranoid
Double A cannot be normal, naive, or insane--> he is paranoid
John could have been anything
Methos could not be naive (so was either normal or insane)

If methos is normal:
Double A is guilty
Makes sasaki Naive
Secura insane

If he was insane:
Double A is innocent (and therefore paranoid)
Either sasaki or secura is guilty and lying
If sasaki is guilty, secura is normal and john was naive
If secura is guilty, sasaki is naive and john was normal.

So, it tells us nothing, any of us could be guilty purely from the results. I don't see anything anyway. Even if we each assume we are innocent, it could be either of the other two people.

*******

Secura is the mafia.

Vote:Secura

My first post, a vote with no reason given.

I suspected that someone would jump such a foolish conclusion; I hadn't thought that it would be you, Sasaki, of all people.

What is your reasoning behind such a vote? To me, it seems like a scummy attempt to kill someone who's utilising their brain to figure things out. There's no better option this round but to vote for no lynch. You're effectively killing the town's ability to win by doing so... so why would you do that?

I can assure you that I am a simply cop, though I don't believe that will sway you.

Now, look at this post carefully. The main difference between mafia and town in this game is that the mafia know the alignment of other players. When someone accuses them, they know that person is town, and when they accuse someone, they know that person is town.

In the first paragraph, Secura says that she "didn't think I would have jumped to such a foolish conclusion". Only townies jump to conclusions, mafia are making things up. The wording shows that she knows I'm town. And mafia are more likely to be paranoid about someone jumping on their posts than townies are.

Then it's "seems like a scummy attempt", my vote on here is mafioso like, she says. Contradicts the last paragraph.

In a following post:

I found what you said scummy because you were trying to call me out for, quite frankly, flip all.

This is different from what she said at the time. Before she said I was scummy for trying to squash the best plan for the town.
a) it isn't the best plan for the town
b) This is all in response to my "secura is mafia vote:secura" post. Overreacting.

If you lynch me, which isn't going to end the game by the way, then you're left with three people in Day Two. How are you going to win at that point?

This is directed at me as a townie again. She describes a situation that would be tough for the town and says "how are you going to win at that point?".

Also, I realise that I have just revealed my role, but considering I've been labelled as the most suspicious one here, it doesn't really matter to me; I'm Officer Brown, and seem to have a snappy taste in leather jackets.

Very eager to reveal her role.

Mine is captain queenan, I assume Double A has a role to claim as well. Mafia like to claim their fakeclaim roles to make themselves look innocent. This claim came after john was speculating that the players role might give away what kind of cop they were. If that was true, then by claiming secura would help the mafia find the normal and insane cops.

Your insistence upon this is going to make you look extremely foolish when it transpires that it isn't actually true.

Assuming I'm town. Accusing an innocent person only makes the accuser look foolish if they are also town.

All you're doing is increasing the belief that you are possibly the scum yourself. Due to this behaviour, I'm going to follow JHT's plan for the evening and investigate Sasaki. If two others will do this also, we may have a better chance of ascertaining which detective has which personality trait and see if it correlates with what JHT has said.

Now I'm mafia again. Basically the trend is that secura makes statements that have a strong subtext of "sasaki is town", but then claims out loud that my arguments against her make me scum. This post directly contradicts good strategy, which she herself posted earlier:

Are we going to use the structure that was suggested in the previous game, or are we following Sasaki's "three people investigate Secura"? I'll go along with either, but I wouldn't commit to putting all our eggs into one basket; what would we do if three people committed to investigating me overnight and I was night-killed? :/

She didn't really put much thought into this, the main point of this post was to show that she didn't mind being investigated. She later ignores the possibility of me being nightkilled and making the results useless because she knows she isn't going to nightkill me.

Considering Sasaki is the top of my suspicions just as I am his, he can post his results after I post mine (which will be about Sasaki), and then the rest of you can post yours too. If he's lying, which I'm increasingly starting to believe that he will do, then his results will not correlate with the rest of you.

Is now convinced I am mafia, out of the blue...

If I do survive the night, then my lynch won't be based upon who any of the investigations point to or any bovine excrement like that; I'm going to vote for the person I find most scummy, and that would be you, Sasaki.

And will vote me no matter what the investigations point to :/

Whereas I suspect you, yes, but it could just as easily be any of the other players.

Except not.

****

Her insisting on investigating me, the guilty claim, the next day innocent claim, and the attempt to draw conclusions from the results even though you can't legitimately do so all point to her trying to set herself up as the normal cop. I don't see any type of setup like that in Double A's post.

Summary:
The subtext of many of her posts implies that I'm town. i.e., she says things to me that you wouldn't say to someone you thought was mafia.
The initial suspicion of me was only on account of my having attacked her (which she overreacted to)
She contradicts herself

Essentially, if you try and follow her train of thought through the thread, it isn't the thinking of a townie who becomes convinced that another person is scum. It's the train of thought of a mafioso who decides that they should accuse the person who is attacking them.

Vote:Secura

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Oh and Double A, if you are actually mafia, kick back and enjoy the victory. Thank secura for oozing scumminess with every post (I'm innocent guys, here's my role claim, I don't mind if you all investigate me!) and me for deciding not to push the lynch day 1 plan.

[johnhughthom]

Why did you hint you were Sullivan when I asked before Sasaki? Was it WIFOM? From how the game has gone it appears the roles are set as they were in the film, trying to work out scum at that point by role revealing may have worked. Not only did you not deny being Sullivan you gently turned the discussion toward investigation methods and away from finding players roles, which is what really made me suspect you. I still think it's you. If it's Double A then you should be ashamed of your lurky victory. If Secura, well played.

[Secura]

Well, it wasn't constant changing my mind; my posts were like that so you wouldn't be certain I suspected you or not, but that's by-the-by. There isn't really any means of arguing with that. I don't feel I oozed scumminess with every post, but to each their own.

Vote as you see fit, Double A, the ball is in your court.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I believe that Sasaki is the scum and have done so for the entire course of the game;

No you haven't, see my above post.

At the very start of the thread, Sasaki pounced on my posts which were, to me, not really that scummy at all;

No, you said you thought someone would jump on them. I'm also a pouncer. I jump on people every game, you played noblesse with me, you should know this. What did I say about Andres when I decided to lynch him?

The extent to which he has maintained that I am the guilty party, even before yourself or Methos had posted at all, did little to ease my beliefs.

First, as I said earlier, I believe in the schrodingers cat theory of mafia. People who haven't posted yet are not scummy.

Second, I found john the most suspicious of the three (for trying to skip out of the day one talk), and was glad he was killed. It would have been terrible strategy to reveal my top suspect. The mafia were going to kill two of them, hopefully the one I found most suspicious.

I questioned them a few times.

Personally, I wouldn't make two long posts like that right off the bat if I was scum, which let's be honest is akin to running around Germany doing the goose-step; you're going to draw attention to yourself, the very last thing a mafia would want.

If you thought WIFOM was a good defense, you would think this made me innocent:

I had some doubts, especially when he was the only person to claim an innocent result, because at that point I ruled him out entirely and thought it might've been you. However, he found the flaw in my thinking and actually reaffirmed, in my mind, that he could be the mafia after all.