The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Furunculus]

I think so...

Conservatives with the most seats, Libdems with the biggest popular vote. If that is a 'Conservative minority government', then sure.

It is based mainly on the fact Libdems are gaining a lot of ground mostly against Labour and a tiny amount against Conservative. This should put Labour 3rd place popular vote-wise. Based on the popular vote, Libdems do look to be in the lead, I would put Conservative 2nd place vote wise, and Libdem most votes. However, I doubt Lib dems would have the most seats, which means Conservative will have the most seats, Labour possibly still getting 2nd, and leaving Libdems 3rd.

I am hoping for STV by next election though.

fair enough.

I have to agree with you Beskar, this looks like the way things are going atm.

Furunculus, please put me down for some of what this chap is having :D

no problem.

[Furunculus]

just to be clear here.

when i talk of a narrow Con win i mean a narrow majority

when i mention xxx led hung parliament, we are talking about a coalition

when i mention xxx minority government, we are talking about less than half the seats

i believe that is the conventions correctly covered...........?

[Beskar]

https://www.youtube.com/ukelection?feature=ticker
A line-up of videos, which Nick Clegg getting the biggest support.

Clegg definitely gets the thumbs up with the Digital Economy Bill question, trouncing the other parties. Nice to see that Lab-Con coalition in removing our internet usage rights. The only one Cameron actually wins is the one on "Protecting Private Property", Brown does poorly on all of them. Clegg clear winner.


Also, from people I know, seems like the Marxists are rallying behind the Liberal Democrats instead of Labour because of policies such as STV, etc. Interesting leftist boost. They are fed-up with Labour and their rightist-authoriatian ways.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

No you're right. I must try to do better. I will do my utmost to keep my socialists tendencies in check.

Louis, not I, jabbed at you for being a socialist. I was simply suggesting that there was PLENTY of blame to go around and that the Tories were unlikely to be the exclusive owners of it.


If an outsider can have a vote, I say: Tory-led coalition with Lib Dems (both holding their noses but keeping Labour out). New elections scheduled within 24 months (though the vote may be a bit past that).

[InsaneApache]

Louis, not I, jabbed at you for being a socialist. I was simply suggesting that there was PLENTY of blame to go around and that the Tories were unlikely to be the exclusive owners of it.


If an outsider can have a vote, I say: Tory-led coalition with Lib Dems (both holding their noses but keeping Labour out). New elections scheduled within 24 months (though the vote may be a bit past that).

I was being ironic in the post you highlighted. We are indeed two countries seperated by a common language.

[Idaho]

How did these nations get all the foreign debt? The same way we did - our leaders. Massive drain on GDP? Yup - just like ours. So why should theirs be cancelled? All that'll do is make the next lot of debt more expensive as the markets factor in the odds of default.
Export of raw materials? Rather like Australia, Brazil, Saudi Arabia... China and germany export manufactured goods. Is this wrong too?

These countries should be treated as equals. Show they're sorting things out and they will be able to get funding in the bond market. Get a decent credit rating and debt will decrease in cost. Embezzel / kill your own citizens and remain in the dark ages.

Do you have no awareness of history? Don't you know what has happened to popular democratic movements in Zaire? In El Salvador? In Chile? Etc, etc...

They got strangled at birth by whichever western state/corporation had control of the raw materials.

[Furunculus]

funny, i thought it was a pretty even contest, with brown getting some good answers, cameron more, and clegg coming across as vacillating.

[Beskar]

funny, i thought it was a pretty even contest, with brown getting some good answers, cameron more, and clegg coming across as vacillating.

Haven't seen it yet, what do you think the main points were?

[Furunculus]

it'll take time, ninety minutes of debate takes time to walk ones mind through, at least mine does, i can only go off gut instinct at this point.

too much red wine.

brown was appealing to poor working class

cameron was appealing to southern aspiring middle class

clegg was appealing to hand-wringing professionals

[Furunculus]

questions you need to ask yourself:

1. Given that the Bank for International Settlements anticipates a UK public debt that will ramp up to 40% of GDP by 2040, and require 27% of GDP to service in debt interest at the same point, what proportion of deficit reduction should come from spending cuts and what proportion from tax increases?

2. Given that the Governor of the Bank of England has said that the necessary spending cuts will be so huge that the government to enact them will be out of power for a generation, and that the economy has been shown to grow faster under low-tax and pro-business regimes, how do you defend the tax increase portion of your deficit reduction plans?

3. Given that the Euro is about to go into melt-down, how do you defend you parties stance over the Britain’s entry into the Eurozone?

4. Given that British business and the Economist have supported the Tory’s economic policies as more conducive to economic recovery, how do you defend an electoral result that will end up with a hung-parliament and a coalition government?

5. Did the top 1% of taxpayers pay more tax in Britain in the eighties under high tax regime or under a low tax regime?

[LittleGrizzly]

questions you need to ask yourself:

1. Given that the Bank for International Settlements anticipates a UK public debt that will ramp up to 40% of GDP by 2040, and require 27% of GDP to service in debt interest at the same point, what proportion of deficit reduction should come from spending cuts and what proportion from tax increases?

I would want it mostly in cuts. Ideally I would like it if (rather than rising taxes) we could just shut down various loopholes and make those who cleverly avoid thier taxes pay thier share, but that seems a bit optimistic so almost all in cuts, 80% at least....

2. Given that the Governor of the Bank of England has said that the necessary spending cuts will be so huge that the government to enact them will be out of power for a generation, and that the economy has been shown to grow faster under low-tax and pro-business regimes, how do you defend the tax increase portion of your deficit reduction plans?

Well they would be aimed at closing loopholes top end (where I imagined thier used more and cost more) which is what we have previously decided is a fair share. I would possibly consider cutting taxes on the lowest paid though...

3. Given that the Euro is about to go into melt-down, how do you defend you parties stance over the Britain’s entry into the Eurozone?

Don't think im informed enough to make a decision... isn't the pound also not in a great place ?

4. Given that British business and the Economist have supported the Tory’s economic policies as more conducive to economic recovery, how do you defend an electoral result that will end up with a hung-parliament and a coalition government?

The question seems somewhat confusing, my answer would be freedom of choice, but i don't think thats quite the question your asking. I agree with the tory's that cuts are needed I just disagree where, I defend an electoral result where the tory's don't outright win by saying they won't get to decide where the cuts are, which is a good thing (if they could set the amount to be cut from the budget then the libs could pick what to cut, that would be perfect okay.)

5. Did the top 1% of taxpayers pay more tax in Britain in the eighties under high tax regime or under a low tax regime?

I feel like you are not asking anything, just making a point with a question... low tax regime I guess though....

[CountArach]

funny, i thought it was a pretty even contest, with brown getting some good answers, cameron more, and clegg coming across as vacillating.

Cameron won the debate according to every poll conducted with Clegg coming in second (with a tie for first in one poll).

[Myrddraal]

I thought the debate was good from all parties. I wouldn't agree that Cameron was the clear winner, his failure to even try to defend some of his policies when they were attacked was poor. It gave the impression that he wanted to hide those policies and pretend they weren't there. Clegg made a lot of sense sometimes, but I also thought he often relied too much on contradicting his opponents debating style rather than attacking their policies, describing the debate between Gordon and David as political point scoring. I was most surprised by Brown's performance in that I expected him to come across worse. There's no real attack on his policies which stuck in my mind as a particularly good one, other than perhaps the regional development agencies.

In terms of my expectations:

Cameron: Slightly worse
Clegg: About the same, if slightly worse
Brown: Much better

It's probably not the best reason to vote for a party I realise, but I don't want to vote conservative, and Labour don't feature in my constituency anyway, so it looks like I'm going to vote Lib Dem.

Looking at the policies of all three parties, there's a lot which I disagree with with all of them. The party I've been least impressed by has been the tory party. I've been impressed by some policies of the Labour Party, and some of the Lib Dem party. Those policies on which I disagree with them are also opposed by the other parties. Yet my constituency is a safe Tory seat, with virtually no Labour support. A stronger mandate for the Lib Dem party might see those views wich I share with them getting a greater voice in the commons. You never know...

[Myrddraal]

Perhaps a moderator could split these last few posts and move them over to the UK election thread? It would be a shame to loose them just because they're in the wrong place.

questions you need to ask yourself:

1. Given that the Bank for International Settlements anticipates a UK public debt that will ramp up to 40% of GDP by 2040, and require 27% of GDP to service in debt interest at the same point, what proportion of deficit reduction should come from spending cuts and what proportion from tax increases?

2. Given that the Governor of the Bank of England has said that the necessary spending cuts will be so huge that the government to enact them will be out of power for a generation, and that the economy has been shown to grow faster under low-tax and pro-business regimes, how do you defend the tax increase portion of your deficit reduction plans?

How can you use an argument which emphasises the magnitude of the discrepancy between government income and expenditure to argue in favour of tax cut? This bit "cuts will be so huge that the government to enact them will be out of power for a generation", and this bit "that the economy has been shown to grow faster under low-tax and pro-business regimes" are opposing points.

Considering that the IFS have critisised all parties on the grounds that their proposed cuts will not be enough to dent the deficit, I think it's selfish to pretend that tax hikes can be avoided. If there's once election promise which will be broken by the conservative party should they win, I think it will be (and indeed I hope it will be) the promises to reduce tax income.

3. Given that the Euro is about to go into melt-down, how do you defend you parties stance over the Britain’s entry into the Eurozone?

I also think that it is arrogant to point to Greece and somehow claim that the pound sterling is the best way to go forward. Forget what might happen, let's take a look at what has happened. The pound has collapsed against the euro, and the dollar. I personally think that from purely economic reasons, we should have joined the euro three or four years ago, when our currency was at its prime.

I don't think that the conditions are right now for us to join the euro, but to argue that the euro in itself leads to instability isn't right. I also think it's wrong to point at Greece and say - that could happen to us if we join the euro. Greece's issues aren't due to their currency, and yet the euro has kept their currency relatively stable throughout the recession. The currency markets are in part driven by speculation. People have been speculating about the effect of Greece for months now, if this element was going to have an effect, it already would have. The currency markets are driven more by imports and exports and foreign investment. Investors are not going to hesitate to invest in France or Britain on the basis that Greece is suffering from a huge deficit, indeed they might vainly hope that Greece will make their worthwhile investments cheaper. The economics behind the euro are sound in that a common currency brings stability. Stability which the pound hasn't enjoyed (and indeed, suffered from a lack of) over the last few years. For purely economic reasons, I would be in favour of joining the euro when the pound has (hopefully) recovered. Unfortunately I don't think this will happen for purely un-economic reasons.

4. Given that British business and the Economist have supported the Tory’s economic policies as more conducive to economic recovery, how do you defend an electoral result that will end up with a hung-parliament and a coalition government?

Some business leaders have supported the Tory party but frankly they are looking at their own short term self interest, not the state of the economy or 'the greater good'. I'm inclined to believe they've been bribed with relatively small bribes.

The Tories say: Make bit cuts - everybody says Great!
The Tories say: Don't increase taxes, indeed, reduce them - everybody says Great!

If they've got sense they scratch beneath the surface and notice that the numbers don't add up.

The Tories say: Ah but we have the magic waste fairy which is going to generate pounds, but only for a Tory government, because the fairy doesn't like Gordon Brown - everybody says Great!

5. Did the top 1% of taxpayers pay more tax in Britain in the eighties under high tax regime or under a low tax regime?

The discrepency between what high earners should pay and what they do pay is due to some fairly blantant inconsistencies in the current tax system, namely the capital gains tax. To argue that reducing taxes increases tax revenue is nonsense. Reform of the tax system is what this country needs (A lib dem policy I support wholeheartedly).

Anyway, all this should be in the UK election thread, this thread is supposed to be about voting in any part of the world.

[Furunculus]

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070

Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

[al Roumi]

On last night's debate, I'm glad they at least spoke about the what would be required to cover the gap in debt and spending -the Lib dem idea of a cross-party comission sounds good given the severity of the situation, its also a + for parliamentary action.

Beyond that and the basic "we will cut taxes"/"we will support services", there wasn't much offered which was new. It kind of played into Gordy's hands as the rest of the debate was about services and completely devoid of the practical "we will pay for these services by..."

Amused to see how Clegg has stolen the Tory "change" mantra, with his own stronger one: "it's these guys fault, they've been in power since... [er, since we were]". Lol

Clegg's best point IMO was on immigration where he showed the Tory policy of no non-skilled non-european immigrants to be largely pointless. As to these non-Eu non skilled migrants who are reportedly flocking from Afghanistan, I am intrigued how anyone who is pro the UK's mission there and against dumping the country and its people in the sheister, can be so un-accomodating/revulsed by Afghans arriving or seeking refuge here -aren't we meant to be over there at least on one level to make things better for them?

The chair left a couple of questions run a bit too long IMO, there were a couple where all 3 leaders basically agreed with each other and struggled to really say more.

I actually found clegg a little patronising at times, but sensible at others. Gordon was good once he delivered his awful intro, his smiling and laughing actually looked genuine for once. Cameron was earnest but I'm not sure his refusal to be drawn inito a couple of discussion was a great move on an occasion when he was meant to extol and present his views and reasoning.

Edit: Just rereading my post I realise how clear a Cleggmanic I have become... the shame!

[rory_20_uk]

On last night's debate, I'm glad they at least spoke about the what would be required to cover the gap in debt and spending -the Lib dem idea of a cross-party comission sounds good given the severity of the situation, its also a + for parliamentary action.

Beyond that and the basic "we will cut taxes"/"we will support services", there wasn't much offered which was new. It kind of played into Gordy's hands as the rest of the debate was about services and completely devoid of the practical "we will pay for these services by..."

Amused to see how Clegg has stolen the Tory "change" mantra, with his own stronger one: "it's these guys fault, they've been in power since... [er, since we were]". Lol

Clegg's best point IMO was on immigration where he showed the Tory policy of no non-skilled non-european immigrants to be largely pointless. As to these non-Eu non skilled migrants who are reportedly flocking from Afghanistan, I am intrigued how anyone who is pro the UK's mission there and against dumping the country and its people in the sheister, can be so un-accomodating/revulsed by Afghans arriving or seeking refuge here -aren't we meant to be over there at least on one level to make things better for them?

The chair left a couple of questions run a bit too long IMO, there were a couple where all 3 leaders basically agreed with each other and struggled to really say more.

I actually found clegg a little patronising at times, but sensible at others. Gordon was good once he delivered his awful intro, his smiling and laughing actually looked genuine for once. Cameron was earnest but I'm not sure his refusal to be drawn inito a couple of discussion was a great move on an occasion when he was meant to extol and present his views and reasoning.

Cross party review sounds good. Also ensures Lib Dems a place at the high table, which is of course what they want.

Outlining what to cut is a massive vote looser. No party can afford to be honest about that. Noticed how the Lib Dems have got vaguer on this as they now have a real chance at power?

Our troops are over there dying not so they can seek refuge in the UK - having crossed a vast number of other safe countries where they should seek refuge under International Law. Their country was in the **** since at least the 1980's, and things have never geen great since the Mongols trashed the irrigation systems.

[al Roumi]

Our troops are over there dying not so they can seek refuge in the UK

Is that why ISAF are in Afghanistan?

having crossed a vast number of other safe countries where they should seek refuge under International Law. Their country was in the sh*t since at least the 1980's, and things have never geen great since the Mongols trashed the irrigation systems.

Right, but as we are there now, taking responsability and trying to get the place back on its feet (as we see it) -can you fault them for thinking we might also take some sort of responsability for Afghans caught in what is a very live warzone?

[Furunculus]

Clegg's best point IMO was on immigration where he showed the Tory policy of no non-skilled non-european immigrants to be largely pointless.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...on-debate.html

[Furunculus]

got twelve predictions so far, anyone else gonna join the party?

i'm beginning to feel more confident about a narrow tory majority.

[rory_20_uk]

Wishful thinking is not by itself a sufficient reason.

Merely that we are expending masses of resources to fix their mess doesn't then mean we have to help them even further. A warzone requires two lots of fighters. The other lot are Afghans.

I see it as a massive waste of time and money. Leave these backward facing people to whatever medieval practices they want., merely trade what we need with whoever sells it.

[Subotan]

You missed me

Conservative & Unionist led Minority government.

[Furunculus]

anyone else going to join the election sweep-stakes:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------

JAG (27/02/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2440038

Furunculus (29/04/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Furunculus (29/03/10) - Narrow Conservative win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2459341

Idaho (16/04/10) - Narrow Labour win:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471029

Rory (16/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2471056

CountArch (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480544

CountArch (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476911

Banquo's Ghost (29/04/10) - Conservative led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480078

Banquo's Ghost (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476913

Louis (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480070

Louis (23/04/10) - Labour led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476925

Tbilicus (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476926

Insane Apache (23/04/10) - Labour led hung-parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2476935

Beskar (23/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2477082

Alh_P (29/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480111

Seamus Fermanagh (30/04/10) - Conservative led hung parliament:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480262

Subotan (30/04/10) - Conservative led minority government:
https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...=1#post2480536

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

and have i missed anyone out?

p.s. you can can change your vote, but the original will also be retained..........

[CountArach]

Changing my bet to a Tory led hung parliament with Lib Dems coming in second on votes.

[al Roumi]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/elec...on-debate.html

Ahah, well pointed out, but:

"Lib Dems officials later attempted to defend the 80 per cent figure, saying it was “supported” by a briefing in the Economist magazine.

The report said that non-EU immigrations make up one fifth of foreign workers [20%], but only when students are excluded from the figures. "

I would (even without my partisan bias) argue that this justifies Clegg's figures - Students are for 1 clearly not the sort to be un-skilled migrants, are probably here only for the duration of their studies and lastly: UK universities get substantial revenues from the fees of foreign students.

[rory_20_uk]

What percentage attend bogus colleges and are here merely to work? Not a rhetorical question - I've no idea. The Daily Mail probably would say about 130%, the guardian 0%.

We have increased degrees to courses that make use of the work "skilled" risible.

[InsaneApache]

Just watched Brillo interviewing the leader of the Monster Raving Looney Party. Hilarious. Asked why they had fielded candidates against Clegg and Cameron but not against Brown, he said that it was too far to go! LOL.

He also suggested that the EU gives up the euro because of the problems they are having and instead join Sterling. Then with the UK being the biggest island in the EU, he proposes that we become a tax haven.

At last! A party that says what it means and means what it says. They've got my vote.

[Furunculus]

Just watched Brillo interviewing the leader of the Monster Raving Looney Party. Hilarious. Asked why they had fielded candidates against Clegg and Cameron but not against Brown, he said that it was too far to go! LOL.

He also suggested that the EU gives up the euro because of the problems they are having and instead join Sterling. Then with the UK being the biggest island in the EU, he proposes that we become a tax haven.

At last! A party that says what it means and means what it says. They've got my vote.

roflmao! i like it.

[Banquo's Ghost]

I found the debate profoundly depressing. Not one of the aspiring leaders of the United Kingdom appears to have any clue as to how to address the deficit, and if they have a clue, they are not willing to share it with the electorate. A government without any sort of mandate for the austerity needed is going to have real problems.

They quibbled about inconsequential things to a nauseating degree, but carefully avoided the biggest question of all.

Performance-wise, Brown was most improved, but still irrelevant. Cameron did enough but was still utterly unconvincing - I thought he made a small tactical error by continually referring to Brown as "Prime Minister". Last week he scored by referring to himself as "if I were your Prime Minister". Clegg was adequate but dealt with Cameron's occasional attacks pretty well. He was the most engaging, but since this is not a presidential election, I was looking for more substance on policy.

I shall be voting Conservative, but with a heavy heart and a deep sense of unease. Cameron is likely to make a useless Prime Minister since he hasn't displayed any spine at all. He will have a feeble mandate, and none whatsoever for the necessary decisions. I think the Governor of the Bank of England was quite correct in his observation, and a Tory government with a wafer-thin majority will be paralysed, indecisive and cowardly - ultimately forced to make swinging cuts and substantial tax rises, which will re-establish all the bad characteristics associated with Conservative rule - and then fall out of power and be punished for a very long time ahead. This would be a very good election to lose, methinks.

I have even less time for George Osborne, but can only hope that he is given the poisoned chalice of introducing the cuts and taxes, then to be Lamonted out of office and Ken Clarke brought in as Chancellor. At least the Tories have someone of Clarke's calibre in the wings, whereas pretty much everyone else of any party is a real lightweight. I actually believe that Brown has the capability, but he has shown himself to be a rank coward politically so many times, there is no way he could handle the coming years and he could certainly no longer bring the electorate with him.

There's another, entirely selfish reason for a Tory vote, and that is the inheritance tax reduction. It's horribly unjust, but I am liable for enormous amounts of inheritance tax and any reduction will be welcome.

[Furunculus]

I shall be voting Conservative, but with a heavy heart and a deep sense of unease. Cameron is likely to make a useless Prime Minister since he hasn't displayed any spine at all. He will have a feeble mandate, and none whatsoever for the necessary decisions.

excellent point.