The United Kingdom Elections 2010

[Hosakawa Tito]

So what we looking at? No clear cut majority and a coalition government?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Well it seems most people my age still view the Tory party as the "nasty party". I've also spoken to a lot of people today who decided to put an X next to their local Labour candidate. Apparently Brown should be void of all blame in regards to our current financial state. Apparently Labour couldn't of avoided doubling the national debt, it was out of their hands.

I don't think it's so much we need a Conservative government, I just feel that after 13 years Labour are completely detached from the electorate.

It will be interesting to see the exit polls around 10ish. I'll post them here for those not in the UK and those who don't want to stay up all night watching the results come in. They generally give us an idea which party has one the most seats and shouldn't be to far outside the end total for number of seats won.

You know, this is mostly my view as well. I am centre-of-right but I don't especially like the current Conservative party, I could certainyl stomach some Liberal politics if someone other than Clegg was in charge. Labour just NEEDS to go.

[InsaneApache]

Funny that. My grandma wouldn't vote tory because she hated Churchill for breaking the general stroke. Incredible to me as a child and incomprehensible as an adult.

[Vladimir]

More importantly: Who's best to lead Britain through WW III?

http://money.cnn.com/data/markets/

Shades of '29.

[tibilicus]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8666128.stm

Exit poll people. I will state before I comment that this wont be 100% accurate and could theoretically be some way of the actual result.

Still, if this poll is roughly accurate in terms of the results we'll get a couple of hours from now, remarkable. The Lib Dems loosing 3 seats?! Also Cameron being shot by 19 could work in his favour. I could see him gaining support from minor parties to push his way into a tiny working majority. Also I have a feeling the exit poll wont take into account the amount of money the Tories have invested in marginal battleground seats, which is a lot..

[shlin28]

Just came home after helping the Lib Dems for 6 hours. Based on the statistics (mainly from canvassing figures) I've seen and the people I have talked to, it would appear that Liberal MP Paul Burstow will retain the seat of Sutton and Cheam, albeit with only a small number of votes above Conservative challenger, Philippa Stroud (featured recently in the Observer).

Sunderland will declare soon... can't wait for the results. My first election night, how exciting!

Edit: Labour holds Sunderland South with 11k majority! w00t! Not that the Tories are gonna win that seat anyway... a big swing to Conservatives though, if this is replicated in the marginals...

[Beskar]

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/election2010/results/

[tibilicus]

I'll make one more post tonight before we get a result in the morning.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politi...10/8666338.stm

Appalling. Nothing else needs to be said. I don't know why you would turn up at 10 to vote anyway but still, more could of been done and polling stations running out of ballot papers is just a joke.

[JAG]

The exit poll is massively underestimating Lib Dem's imo, they will gain some 20+ more seats I think. Anyway, I was very much worried b4 I saw the official exit poll as I saw rumors of it saying an overall Tory majority - very glad it didn't. Everything is up in the air, EVERYTHING to play for still. This is the most exciting election I have ever known, loving it. especially as the anti Tory parties could still, possibly, come together.

[Vladimir]

BBCA says the Lib Dems are taking a bad hit. Shows you can't trust poles much.

[Banquo's Ghost]

BBCA says the Lib Dems are taking a bad hit. Shows you can't trust poles much.

Isn't that the BNP position?

More seriously, I think the first three results show that there may well be a lot of tactical voting. Wierd swings, for example.

The exit poll also doesn't include postal voting, which looks to be significant this time.

[Furunculus]

well, we're about to find out who was closer to the end result between JAG and myself, all to play for....................

[Banquo's Ghost]

First big shock: Peter Robinson, First Minister in Northern Ireland, has lost his Westminster seat to the cross-community Alliance party - suffering a 22% swing. Nice to see that corruption gets punished.

[Subotan]

Oh wow, that's absolutely astounding. Peter Robinson has been kicked out, and not just that, but he's been kicked out by Alliance!!!!!

[tibilicus]

Well I'm not quite in bed yet so thought I would just comment on the sort of results we might see. This election really does seem anyone's game. The Alliance Party just took a seat from the DUP in what was essentially a Unionist stronghold. It seems anything can happen.

Also Greens look likely to gain their first MP. We could still yet see the emergence of a strong block of minor parties, which again throws everything wide open.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

First big shock: Peter Robinson, First Minister in Northern Ireland, has lost his Westminster seat to the cross-community Alliance party - suffering a 22% swing. Nice to see that corruption gets punished.

Yes, Cross-community MP's in Northern Ireland should be a good thing.

No one has mentioned the dodgy polly yet though!

[tibilicus]

Seeming I can't be bothered to look it up, can anyone care to tell me what the Alliance Party actually stands for when it comes the unionism/nationalism. Being cross-community are they essentially of the belief that the current power sharing deal which incorporates Westminster, Dublin and Stormont is the ideal set up?

[JAG]

OK, officially starting to get worried. First proper marginal big swing to Tories and they took it. Hmmm.

[JAG]

But first big Con / Lib marginal, LIBS HOLD! WOOT!

.. Yes a Labour member whooping a Lib Dem hold, with a Tory to Lib dem of 1.1%!

Come on! That off sets the suprise result vs Lab in Kingswood.

[Banquo's Ghost]

But first big Con / Lib marginal, LIBS HOLD! WOOT!

.. Yes a Labour member whooping a Lib Dem hold, with a Tory to Lib dem of 1.1%!

Come on! That off sets the suprise result vs Lab in Kingswood.

Indeed, but there have been fairly large number of 9%+ swings to the Tories, which would give them a majority.

[JAG]

But if you look at those swings - all the big swings were in solid, solid Lab seats, the only seat in the North West which was up for grabs a 4.8% swing to Con. It might be that tactical voting and the marginal campaign by Lab might actually be making the difference. Interesting times.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Oh I agree. It's even more unpredictable than predicted.

The great imponderable at the moment is how the Liberals perform in their Lib-Con marginals. Torbay was a good win for them, indicating that the South West might stay gold, where the Conservatives needed it to go back blue.

[InsaneApache]

The exit poll is massively underestimating Lib Dem's imo, they will gain some 20+ more seats I think. Anyway, I was very much worried b4 I saw the official exit poll as I saw rumors of it saying an overall Tory majority - very glad it didn't. Everything is up in the air, EVERYTHING to play for still. This is the most exciting election I have ever known, loving it. especially as the anti Tory parties could still, possibly, come together.

Nice to see you 'round these here parts t'owld lad ......and your team stayed up (again)

:)

[JAG]

Nice to see you 'round these here parts t'owld lad ......and your team stayed up (again)

:)

Yeah, just about - we would have been in the right dog's do do if we went down financially wise.

I am getting more worried, but did we just hold Durham against the Lib Dems?! If so, that is one hell of a hold...

[Banquo's Ghost]

Yes, Labour held Durham. Big blow to the Lib Dems. Looks like their surge has genuinely disappeared.

[JAG]

Ah geeze - having just seen what Brown has said, my worried feeling is starting to churn into sickened realisation that maybe we are not gonna get through this.

[Banquo's Ghost]

I think that's Brown finally accepting that he won't be Prime Minister past tomorrow, even if there's a Lib-Lab pact.

The Tories aren't doing very well in London marginals though. The Liberals failed massively to take their key target of Guildford, which is telling.

[Beskar]

Also Greens look likely to gain their first MP. We could still yet see the emergence of a strong block of minor parties, which again throws everything wide open.

Yeah, there is a lot of campaigning up here in Lancaster, it is a real possibility of them getting a seat here.

[JAG]

My seat of Brentford - in South West London - is going to be super tight, super duper tight based on the swings on the marginals between Con and Lab. I think Con need a 5% swing, gonna be touch and go.

Holding onto Tooting gives me hope though. This is the most bizzare night, some seats with huge swings, most of the marginals not, but varient swings in the marginals too. Amazing. Call this at your peril.

[JAG]

Unbelievable we hold Geldling too with a swing of just 2.9% to the Tories?! Now we hold Exeter, not one of the prorities but one the Con's wanted. Maybe I am wrong to be pessimistic, after all we are picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.