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Thread: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

  1. #1351
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    There's a serious constitutional issue looming too. If the Tories form a minority government, it looks like it will be with almost no seats in Scotland or Wales. Essentially, a minority English government will be cutting massive public spending in parts of the UK that have decisively rejected that party. There's actually a swing TO Labour in Scotland at the moment.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  2. #1352
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    It is a little worrying, no doubt.

    You know what though, the Nationalists are not doing well, so maybe that blunts some of that problem, I dunno though.

    This whole election is crazy - what the hell has happened to the Lib dem vote? Seriously, what the hell has happened?
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  3. #1353
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Having just said that, the Tories have just taken two Welsh seats! Montgomeryshire by a 13% swing (albeit from the eejit Lembit Opik).

    The Lib Dem vote appears to have completely evaporated. That makes it much more difficult for Labour to try and form a coalition, because their partners won't have any sort of mandate, even in just popular vote.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  4. #1354
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Banquo's Ghost View Post
    Having just said that, the Tories have just taken two Welsh seats! Montgomeryshire by a 13% swing (albeit from the eejit Lembit Opik).

    The Lib Dem vote appears to have completely evaporated. That makes it much more difficult for Labour to try and form a coalition, because their partners won't have any sort of mandate, even in just popular vote.
    Agreed. I am cheering on the Lib Dems here and they are seriously lettign me down. :(

    Needed them to take some seats from the Tories and hold their marginals, let alone give them 13% swings!!! Blimey, I have no idea what has happened to the Lib Dem vote, GAH!!!!!!!!!!

    Crazyness, Labour are holding onto every single marginal which isn't in the South and hasn't been super duper money'ed out by the Tories. It might be the Lib dems collapse which lets the Tories in.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  5. #1355
    L'Etranger Senior Member Banquo's Ghost's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Now I'm really confused. Lib Dems held Huhne's seat which was a absolute priority for the Tories as he only had a 500 majority. And they gained Eastbourne.
    "If there is a sin against life, it consists not so much in despairing as in hoping for another life and in eluding the implacable grandeur of this one."
    Albert Camus "Noces"

  6. #1356
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Yet they lose Tory target seat number 140+ on a 9% swing.... crazy. Maybe this is the ultimate showing of all politics being local.

    I think it is clear though, in the North of England, Scotland, most of Wales and in some parts of the South - in the Lab / Con marginals the Lab vote is holding up and the Tories are not taking the seats. CRAZY!
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  7. #1357
    TexMec Senior Member Louis VI the Fat's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    What a thrilling night!


    Alas, it is off to bed for Louis. Am already looking forward to see what surprises lie in store tomorrow morning!
    Anything unrelated to elephants is irrelephant
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  8. #1358

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    If this turns out be to as bad as Im thinking it could turn out for Lib Dems, I will just hope for a Lib Dem/Labour coalition to pass through the voting reforms it seems Britain needs. Seriously, Im getting sick of seeing in America (and now possibly Britain) the two major parties saying that since the broken system rigged in their favor has turned out in their favor that the public has spoken that the system does not need to be reformed.


  9. #1359
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Where Labour had the money to fight the marginals the swing has been vastly inferior to the swing in the other marginals. For instance we just lost Carlise on a swing of 7.7%, probably because we didn't put the money in like we did in Tooting for instance where the swing was around 3% etc.

    Crazy.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  10. #1360

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Is anyone else following this interactive map?


  11. #1361
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Use this instead - http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/shared/elect...ts/default.stm

    Much better! :)
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  12. #1362

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Wtf, is this bull**** from JAG's interactive map.

    # Labour Votes: 5,120,270 % of total: 27.4% Seats: 155
    # Lib Dems Votes: 4,174,338 % of total: 22.3% Seats: 31

    So a 5.1% difference in the popular vote gives you 124 more seats?


  13. #1363
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by JAG View Post
    Where Labour had the money to fight the marginals the swing has been vastly inferior to the swing in the other marginals. For instance we just lost Carlise on a swing of 7.7%, probably because we didn't put the money in like we did in Tooting for instance where the swing was around 3% etc.

    Crazy.
    It means you can only hold seats with massive cash injections. I told you Labour would not form the next government, and this looks to be the case.

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Wtf, is this bull**** from JAG's interactive map.

    # Labour Votes: 5,120,270 % of total: 27.4% Seats: 155
    # Lib Dems Votes: 4,174,338 % of total: 22.3% Seats: 31

    So a 5.1% difference in the popular vote gives you 124 more seats?
    First Past the Post.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  14. #1364
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    You were insisting there would be a decent Tory majority, I informed you that would not be the case. I always said it would be a hung parliament I simply believed we could still be the biggest party - however it doesn't look like happening. There could still be a form of coalition, remember to add 3 seats onto the Lab total due to their NI party which take the whip and likewise +1 to the LD's. This is close, Tories are getting a lot of gains atm though and might get enough for a minority govt - it all depends on London really, I am holding my breath for Brentford and Isleworth, my constituency.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  15. #1365

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    First Past the Post.
    I know. I'm just pissed. I just hate obsolete and broken voting systems more then the people who attempt to rig and control elections. At least with the riggers they work their hardest to make sure reforms stopping them are not put in place so they dont lose their job, the system doesnt fight back its just there for tradition the most illogical reasoning for keeping something ever.


  16. #1366
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by a completely inoffensive name View Post
    Wtf, is this bull**** from JAG's interactive map.

    # Labour Votes: 5,120,270 % of total: 27.4% Seats: 155
    # Lib Dems Votes: 4,174,338 % of total: 22.3% Seats: 31

    So a 5.1% difference in the popular vote gives you 124 more seats?
    That is our system for you and also why the Lib Dems would be CRAZY not to demand a PR system for their votes in the house.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  17. #1367

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by JAG View Post
    That is our system for you and also why the Lib Dems would be CRAZY not to demand a PR system for their votes in the house.
    Well I'm glad that at least you guys have a third party with some measurable amount of seats to promote the idea of PR. The US I fear is never going to ever change the electoral college since there is only the Dems and Repubs.


  18. #1368
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by JAG View Post
    You were insisting there would be a decent Tory majority, I informed you that would not be the case. I always said it would be a hung parliament I simply believed we could still be the biggest party - however it doesn't look like happening. There could still be a form of coalition, remember to add 3 seats onto the Lab total due to their NI party which take the whip and likewise +1 to the LD's. This is close, Tories are getting a lot of gains atm though and might get enough for a minority govt - it all depends on London really, I am holding my breath for Brentford and Isleworth, my constituency.
    I am quite sure you said you would have a majority, I recall nothing about a coalition until relatively recently. If you want to talk about adding seats, you have the Ulster Unionists.
    Last edited by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus; 05-07-2010 at 05:14.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  19. #1369
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    I am quite sure you said you would have a majority, I recall nothing about a coalition until relatively recently. If you want to talk about adding seats, you have the Ulster Unionists.
    Nope, look back in the thread if you must, for some years now, since Brown got in really, I said a hung parliament was the likliest outcome - it has just become more and more prominent. WOW, we just held onto Birmingham Edgbaston, no one thought we would, unbelievable. Absolutely brilliant, just a 0.5% swing.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  20. #1370
    Mr Self Important Senior Member Beskar's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    What I am failing to understand is how the Lib-dems even lost seats.

    Yeah, Libdems have 1/6th behind Labour and only have a 1/6th of the seats. Pretty ridiculous.

    Looks hung, I am hoping for a coalition between Lab-Libdem in an ideal world, with Clegg as Prime Minister. But I don't think even that would get a majority.
    Last edited by Beskar; 05-07-2010 at 05:33.
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  21. #1371
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    They lost seats because their vote crumbled in some Con / Lib Dem marginals and a few Lab / Lib Dem marginals and they did not take many of their target seats. As simpel as that really. Remember they had a good result in 2005 this year was always going to be hard, but after the debates everyone went beserk thinking they were gonna be forming a govt. Crazyness. I hope we can have a Lib Lab govt though.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  22. #1372
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Beskar View Post
    What I am failing to understand is how the Lib-dems even lost seats.

    Yeah, Libdems have 1/6th behind Labour and only have a 1/6th of the seats. Pretty ridiculous.

    Looks hung, I am hoping for a coalition between Lab-Libdem in an ideal world, with Clegg as Prime Minister. But I don't think even that would get a majority.
    Oh stop it Beskar. The Conservatives were always going to get in. Gordon Brown is individually far more dangerous than the aristocracy; even if Banquo did describe Cameron as an "oik". The big issue (and it's a good thing) is the failure of both Cleggmania and the Tory A-list.

    When it came down to it people cared more about local candidates and policies than parties and "presidential" personalities.

    The other story is that England has a 41% Conservative vote. While Banquo is correct he is also wrong. The Conservative government will be English, but it will also represent a majority the overall population of the UK. Scotish and Welsh nationalists need to recognise that the "Celtic" fringe is a fringe, and has no right to wag the British dog.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  23. #1373
    Part-Time Polemic Senior Member ICantSpellDawg's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    I remember being laughed out of the room when I mentioned the likelihood that Labour and LD shared core constituencies. Everybody said that LD would take away Tory votes due to the southern play that they shared, but that seems not to have happened for some reason.
    "That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there."
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  24. #1374
    Voluntary Suspension Voluntary Suspension Philippus Flavius Homovallumus's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by JAG View Post
    They lost seats because their vote crumbled in some Con / Lib Dem marginals and a few Lab / Lib Dem marginals and they did not take many of their target seats. As simpel as that really. Remember they had a good result in 2005 this year was always going to be hard, but after the debates everyone went beserk thinking they were gonna be forming a govt. Crazyness. I hope we can have a Lib Lab govt though.
    Can't happen right now, look at the figures, Lib-Lab would be less than Con-DUP.

    You're flogging a dead horse at this point, even if the gap doesn't further widen, Labour can't form a government.
    "If it wears trousers generally I don't pay attention."

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  25. #1375

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Go Tories!!

    The results have absolutely no effect on me, but I'm with them in spirit.

  26. #1376
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by Philipvs Vallindervs Calicvla View Post
    Can't happen right now, look at the figures, Lib-Lab would be less than Con-DUP.

    You're flogging a dead horse at this point, even if the gap doesn't further widen, Labour can't form a government.
    Nope you are wrong. On the BBC projected figures - C 306, L 262, LD 55 - that gives L + LD 317 + 3 NI seats which sit with Labour and +1 which is the same in respect for the LD's and you have 321. 4 Sinn Fein DO NOT SIT in the Parliament and therefore realistically you need a majority of 323/4 NOT 326. So with 321 in the bag you really don't think Labour will twist the arm of the newly elected Green party MP, which are to the left of both LD and Labour and to not get things passed by abstations - I don't think so. Coalition here we come, providing Clegg wakes up and realises he needs PR which Lab will give him.

    woot!
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  27. #1377
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Wow I am tired, spelling and grammar are out of the window.

    My analysis is sound though.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

  28. #1378

    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Quote Originally Posted by JAG View Post
    Wow I am tired, spelling and grammar are out of the window.

    My analysis is sound though.
    I don't know who you are JAG, but I really hope your analysis is right. I may be an American, but the UK election is critical not just toward future policy of my countries biggest ally but also a judgment on the future of PR in England. One more country that switches away from first past the post (which the US uses as well) to PR or a single transferable vote is more ammo for Americans here to make the push against the traditionalists in favor of the Electoral College.


  29. #1379
    Part-Time Polemic Senior Member ICantSpellDawg's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    That's quite a bit of coalitionizing there. This is assuming that none of the LD's believe that Brown is a turd. Do you think Labour will turn the whole party? Is that a given?
    "That rifle hanging on the wall of the working-class flat or labourer's cottage is the symbol of democracy. It is our job to see that it stays there."
    -Eric "George Orwell" Blair

    "If the policy of the government, upon vital questions affecting the whole people, is to be irrevocably fixed by decisions of the Supreme Court...the people will have ceased to be their own rulers, having to that extent practically resigned the government into the hands of that eminent tribunal."
    (Lincoln's First Inaugural Address, 1861).
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  30. #1380
    Things Change Member JAG's Avatar
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    Default Re: The United Kingdom Elections 2010

    Some of the LD's hate Brown, especially their leader Clegg, however they will bite the bullet and they hate the Tories more - much more. Plus with a chance to get PR under Labour and no PR under the Tories, you know which was they will go.
    GARCIN: I "dreamt," you say. It was no dream. When I chose the hardest path, I made my choice deliberately. A man is what he wills himself to be.
    INEZ: Prove it. Prove it was no dream. It's what one does, and nothing else, that shows the stuff one's made of.
    GARCIN: I died too soon. I wasn't allowed time to - to do my deeds.
    INEZ: One always dies too soon - or too late. And yet one's whole life is complete at that moment, with a line drawn neatly under it, ready for the summing up. You are - your life, and nothing else.

    Jean Paul Sartre - No Exit 1944

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