Acropolis Now

[gaelic cowboy]

Its absolutely crazy Greece is what 2 or 3 percent of the GDP of the union and it's going to bust us all this seems to be a cod if you ask me. This lark has all the hallmarks of a inability by politicians in Europe as a whole to see whats what about a situation and sort it out instead to react is seen as giving in or being somehow weak.

Some commentators here were saying how the unthinkable always is unthinkable until its done Gold standard anyone supposedly that could not be changed either. Everyone cribbing about a weak Euro what the hell about it it's just a notional price for a bit of paper that tends to get spent for the most part in Europe anyway.

Anyway the problems will now not happen till next year now as they have been given the money to pay the bond holders so default is next years problem not todays the only people who derail it all now are Greeks fact.

[Beskar]

Greece was rotten when it first entered and not much has changed since then. In fact, arguably some of the newer members which joined in 2004 are less corrupt and more economically stable than Greece and some of the others that joined in the 80s. Point being the desire for European integration has clearly been put before the interests of an stable European market, something which arguably was the principle reasoning behind forming the EEC/EU.

Stable market requires stable politics. Apparently there is going to be a run on the pound because of coalition talks. Have you ever wondered "Why?". Why would Britain suddenly get in trouble economically, over something politically? It is because they are both interconnected.

To solve the greek problem, they need to address the economic crisis politically, enforcing regulation amongst other things to make sure it doesn't happen again. The thing with this, this integration is bad and should be stopped, which those of a more nationalist view subscribe to.

It is a circle that goes around. People should seriously address what they want, in terms of pro's and con's then make a decision on it.

[cegorach]

According to Transparency International Greece is the most corrupt EU member, but it is even worse.


I recall the time when my country was applying to join the EU, everybody said - 'don't be Greece' - it is like a monument of failure of an authoritarian country never recovering from its ugly past.

Tax evasion inherited from Ottoman times, corruption from the Byzantine Empire, ultra powerful Orthodox Church from late Ottoman period, populist political scene and anarcho-leftist protesters and ordinary terrorists with bloated trade unions and army from the transition period in the XXth century.

Lovely - EU worst nightmare.



Unfortunatelly kicking Greece out of the EU is impossible and would be counterproductive if was possible. Loans will save German and French banks first of all, but the country will have to reform too.


I cannot imagine that someone can just sit down doing nothing and be given so much in so little time only to waste mst of the help.

Maybe a decade of hard reforms will help, frankly it must help because what else is left?


It is not like other EU members don't suffer from any of those peoblems - quite differently, but it can be changed - for example in my country due to their part in the destruction of communism trade unions were almost untouchable for a decade after 1989 which resulted in destruction of several companies and - thankfully - in humilation of the organisations themselves. Presently I hear people supporting toughest measures aginst politicised trade unions with no desire to support 'activists' earning 10 times more than ordinary workers or more.

Hopefully Greece will see recognisable change in a decade or earlier, but they must deal with their problems - standing on a verge of an abyss should help.

Because nothing worse can happen, can it?

[tibilicus]

Stable market requires stable politics. Apparently there is going to be a run on the pound because of coalition talks. Have you ever wondered "Why?". Why would Britain suddenly get in trouble economically, over something politically? It is because they are both interconnected.

To solve the greek problem, they need to address the economic crisis politically, enforcing regulation amongst other things to make sure it doesn't happen again. The thing with this, this integration is bad and should be stopped, which those of a more nationalist view subscribe to.

It is a circle that goes around. People should seriously address what they want, in terms of pro's and con's then make a decision on it.

Hence the "corruption" reference. The problem is that if the Greeks decide in their next election (whenever that is) to vote in a party in favour of overturning austerity measures, the Eurozone is in big trouble. Perhaps the bigger issue right now though is to stop Portugal and Spain going under. If that happens the markets will be in effective meltdown.

[gaelic cowboy]

@ tibilicus next election in Greece is in 2014 I would say seeing as new government was sworn in after the crisis spluttered into view they last crowd resigned cos they had no mandate but tbh I think they cut and ran so they can pretend the other side ruined Greece. To there utter eternal disgrace the previous incumbents who broke the country voted against the bailout in a totally populist move the last day.

[Furunculus]

Yes, within Europe, the UK is second only to Greece in deficit spending.

The UK is one of the largest creditors of Greece. Yet because the UK is not in the Euro, British banks will be saved by the taxpayers in other countries.

The centre of European haute finance, of constant pressure for even less regulation, and the final recipient of taxpayer funded bailouts, is the City of London.

Ceaseless attacks on the Euro by speculators originate in London. The risks of this are for the European taxpayer, the profit for London.

[/perfidious Albion, rant rant rant]

wrong on both counts babbo, try reading the links supplied:

here you go:

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...f=weekinreview

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on the other hand Britain's prospects look pretty good:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/7...no-Greece.html

toodlepip!

the first link shows who owes what, and i think you'll find we're $15b to ~$100b with the rest of the EU, with france holding the p00py end of the stick.

the second link notes that our structural deficit is probably closer to 5% rather than 12%, because a large part is short term debt relating to bank bailouts rather than decades of spending on credit.

we also have an avereage debt roll-over period 50% longer than the euro average, so we're unlikely to get bombed by the bond markets unless they get spooked by the tanking monetary union of our next-door neighbours...........

[Louis VI the Fat]

try reading the links supplied:

I read those articles, I am simply venting my frustration at the triumphalism of the UK, which is - such seems to be a historical constant - partly to blame for all these problems. Two years of the European taxpayer bailing out the international finance crooks of the City - my grandchildren will still be paying off their bonuses - while the City grows rich as if nothing happened while heaping triumphalist scorn at the latest victim of financial speculation by these packs of wolves.

I say support the Euro with a Tonkin tax on financial transactions. It is clear that sovereign nations ae no longer the masters of their own financial destiny. We can't throw around the same amount of money that international finance can. Our security and stability is at the mercy of a few computer clicks by the herd mentality of speculators. This is not on.




I am also much dismayed that the entire wealth of France seems to be lend to Italy, Greece, Portugal and the even greater economical wonderlands in Africa.
I'll find a way to vent my frustration by blaming that on Albion too, as soon as I figured out how you had us all this time.

[Husar]

Looks like France owns Italy...

Just by looking at that graph, Greece doesn't really look like a problem, yet it is one, maybe it's time they start actually collecting taxes.

[gaelic cowboy]

Those debt graphs Furunculus supplied before show a lot but explain nothing of who holds the debt or when it has to be paid back etc etc. One thing that caught my attention was the massive 7 to 8 billion owed by Greece to Ireland but our government estimates only 40 million is at stake in our banks so the owed money is obviously for these investment type banking people who just use Dublin as a postal address.


on a side note debt is not a problem only ability to pay is the factor to be considered there is far to much hysteria on this lately in the media FACT. So Italy owes a massive pile to France few points to remember when are the bonds up for payment who owns the bonds etc etc.

Most Italian bonds are owned by Italians that is a factor in there favor unlike Greece who had to pay now and had no money and no ability to borrow which is what all countries do but could not

[Louis VI the Fat]

Looks like France owns Italy...

Just by looking at that graph, Greece doesn't really look like a problem, yet it is one, maybe it's time they start actually collecting taxes.

We need Germany to rule Europe with an iron fist. We need a D-mark from the Atlantic to the Urals. Kick out Merkel and put a man in power who'll promise to impose Teutonic discipline on the entire continent.


What were we thinking when we stopped you last two times!?
See, that was the result of Albion too. Told you so.

[gaelic cowboy]

What needs to happen is greater oversight of interbank lending in the Eurozone the money all went one way as France and Germany lent in Euro to the other Euro countries who supposedly would never default due to being in the euro. That was the mistake right there the belief that just because certain countries were in the Euro they could never default ever again. Naturally these investment bank type sensed a good deal when they saw it they could use German money and buy Greek bonds at a higher rate than German bonds and the money was supposedly just as safe which of course it will be now for this year anyway.

[Megas Methuselah]

There are other ways to express my self. But I guess it's that hot southern blood what makes them act like that.

Probably the heat. Up here, we make roadblocks.

[Louis VI the Fat]

What needs to happen is greater oversight of interbank lending in the Eurozone the money all went one way as France and Germany lent in Euro to the other Euro countries who supposedly would never default due to being in the euro. That was the mistake right there the belief that just because certain countries were in the Euro they could never default ever again. Naturally these investment bank type sensed a good deal when they saw it they could use German money and buy Greek bonds at a higher rate than German bonds and the money was supposedly just as safe which of course it will be now for this year anyway.

Europe will fight back!

Some heavyweight hedge funds have launched large bearish bets against the euro in moves that are reminiscent of trades at the height of the U.S. financial crisis.
The big bets are emerging amid gatherings such as an exclusive "idea dinner" earlier this month that included hedge-fund titans SAC Capital Advisors LP and Soros Fund Management LLC.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB4000...848074392.html

Regulation at last - hopefully:

The European parliament is expected tomorrow to approve a draft directive to toughen regulation of hedge funds and private equity firms despite a growing tide of opposition from leading politicians and lobby groups in the UK and America, where both industries are clustered.

Labour's City minister Lord Myners has described the proposed regulatory crackdown – being championed by France and Germany – as "fundamentally flawed and promot[ing] protectionism under the guise of protection". Both the Conservative party and Liberal Democrats have similar views. US treasury secretary Timothy Geithner has also been critical.
However, after months of deliberation members of the economic committee of the European parliament are expected to pass the text proposed by Jean-Paul Gauzès, the parliament's rapporteur on the proposed directive on alternative investment.


Directive rules on hedge funds would require non-European funds to have a "passport" to be able to trade in Europe, but they may not be able to earn one if their home country has different financial regulation. This would limit the presence of US-based hedge funds in Europe, which include some of the biggest firms, such as Paulson & Co.
Many hedge funds from both sides of the Atlantic operated registered operations from the Cayman Islands, the Caribbean tax haven. A passport blacklisting for the Cayman Islands could create huge problems for the industry.
The proposal has angered the financial industry, particularly in Britain, home to about 450 hedge funds, 80% of the European total. UK-based hedge funds employ 10,000 professionals directly and 30,000 others, such as lawyers and accountants, indirectly.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...private-equity

Hedge funds launching an attack on the euro from their tax havens, protected by their governments of their real base of operations, threatening our pensions and financial stability, after we bailed out their industry with taxes my grandchildren will still be paying - and they have the nerve to be 'angered' at the threat of the mere smallest of regulatory measures? Bunch of bloody wank...erm, bankers.

[gaelic cowboy]

And those bloody ratings agencies to Louis don't forget them if there was ever a low dirty crowd its them I mean they seem to have been paid by the very toxic banks they rated

[gaelic cowboy]

breaking news on sky Europe agrees a 500 billion euro aid package to stabilise the eurozone.

[Kagemusha]

Like Olli Rehn says, "proves that we shall defend the euro whatever it takes,". In my opinion the monetary Union is the thing that benefits all the Euro countries. After the Greek case maybe our Politicians will be smart enough to understand that countries cant be accepted to Euro automatically and there are limits how many Euro countries can there be whose economy is weak. This might calm down a bit the frenzy to expand the EU.

[Furunculus]

I read those articles, I am simply venting my frustration at the triumphalism of the UK, which is - such seems to be a historical constant - partly to blame for all these problems. Two years of the European taxpayer bailing out the international finance crooks of the City - my grandchildren will still be paying off their bonuses - while the City grows rich as if nothing happened while heaping triumphalist scorn at the latest victim of financial speculation by these packs of wolves.

I say support the Euro with a Tonkin tax on financial transactions. It is clear that sovereign nations ae no longer the masters of their own financial destiny. We can't throw around the same amount of money that international finance can. Our security and stability is at the mercy of a few computer clicks by the herd mentality of speculators. This is not on.

the triumphalism results from the fact that we finally have the leverage we need to see a two speed europe with britain in the slow lane.

as i have said before; I want to be a good neighbour to europe, it is in all of our interests, but as long as britain is being inextricably dragged into ever-deeper-union i will dig my heels in to prevent anything from europe, and cheer on any disaster that slows integration.

give me this:

1) The referendum lock
2) A United Kingdom sovereignty bill
3) A guaranteed say for MP’s if Ministers want the EU to extend its powers
4) Opt out from the charter of fundamental rights
5) Return of powers over criminal justice
6) Repatriation of control over social and employment legislation

in addition to the elements we have already dodged such as:
1. Schengen
2. Euro

and a few more such as Cameron and Srakozy's discussion to kill of the european defence agency.

and we will have created a two-speed europe, at which point i will graciously cheer on the hard-core of continental nations that want ever more integration, but don't be surprised if quite a few other EU nations join us in the slow-lane.............. but then that is what the transnational progressivists fear most; an a-lal-carte EU, which is why they fight so hard to drag Britain into every daft euro-scheme.

if you let me, i will be a good european.

[KukriKhan]

We need Germany to rule Europe with an iron fist. We need a D-mark from the Atlantic to the Urals. Kick out Merkel and put a man in power who'll promise to impose Teutonic discipline on the entire continent.


What were we thinking when we stopped you last two times!?
See, that was the result of Albion too. Told you so.

Ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-ha-HA!

And LOL, et ROFL, et cetera.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Regulation at last - hopefully:
Hedge funds launching an attack on the euro from their tax havens, protected by their governments of their real base of operations, threatening our pensions and financial stability, after we bailed out their industry with taxes my grandchildren will still be paying - and they have the nerve to be 'angered' at the threat of the mere smallest of regulatory measures? Bunch of bloody wank...erm, bankers.

An attack? If more firms had 'attacked' Greece for their out of control spending before the crash, the government's wild ways may have been reigned in. I said before that if people had stopped lending to Greece earlier, or demanded higher rates for the debt, the whole Greek problem would have been smaller because Greece would have faced market pressures for their foolish behavior. Now that's finally starting to happen more and you call it an attack on Europe?

And hedge funds and private equity firms aren't even the institutions normally blamed for the crash.

This is just a way for France and Germany to ban foreign hedge funds and prevent their own citizens from choosing to invest in them. And when foreign funds are banned, where do you think the hedge fund industry will expand? The governments are counting on people to simply accept that any and all regulation is good. Don't be fooled.

In an aside, the firms most responsible for the crash - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - who financed millions of sub prime loans - have largely escaped any regulation because the Democrats like companies if they're part of the government.

CR

[gaelic cowboy]

I said before that if people had stopped lending to Greece earlier, or demanded higher rates for the debt, the whole Greek problem would have been smaller because Greece would have faced market pressures for their foolish behavior.

Greece did have a higher rate for its bonds hence the people bought them as they got a better return on a greek bond than a german one. The market instead flooded greece with credit on the assumption it would never default due to euro membership.

[Beskar]

So it was the Market which was wrong, again....

Seriously, who makes these jokers have that much wealth and power, so they end up ruining everything out of personal interest?

[Beskar]

In an aside, the firms most responsible for the crash - Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac - who financed millions of sub prime loans - have largely escaped any regulation because the Democrats like companies if they're part of the government.

Actually, it was Goldman Sachs and friends. Who set them up with the aim of them crashing and betting money on the fact they will crash.

[gaelic cowboy]

So it was the Market which was wrong, again....

Seriously, who makes these jokers have that much wealth and power, so they end up ruining everything out of personal interest?

Well yes and no the market felt that the EU would defend the Euro because of the immense loss of face it would cause internationally of a member country default.

It was the the speculative people later who then bet on a default who felt that the EU would be unable to agree on a plan due to the divided nature of power in the EU.

[Lemur]

A worthwhile read about how the bailout might and might not play out:

[W]hile the EU’s trillion dollars is surely sufficient to prevent any country from having to default in the next few years, I fear that its enormity will only exacerbate tensions between the euro zone countries over the long term. They’re not all partners together anymore: now they’re bifurcating into the rich lenders, on the one hand, and the formerly-profligate debtors, on the other. The mind-boggling sums involved are only going to increase resentments both of the south in the north and of the north in the south.

[Fragony]

Greece did have a higher rate for its bonds hence the people bought them as they got a better return on a greek bond than a german one. The market instead flooded greece with credit on the assumption it would never default due to euro membership.

And pensions were set at 54 on top of the 14 months a year and just about nobody has a non-government job, and now their socialism is going to be feeding on us. Nono.

[gaelic cowboy]

And pensions were set at 54 on top of the 14 months a year and just about nobody has a non-government job, and now their socialism is going to be feeding on us. Nono.

The use or misuse of said money for such things has a misleading tone the only criteria to be measured is the ability to pay back the bond. As Greece had a lot of money to pay back now and not next year due to credit tightening up they were unable to borrow more to pay the last one. This is what all countries do no one actually has a government that saves up money and pay its debt they borrow more and on and on forever.

Greece could not rollover the bonds and so was in danger of default no one will lend it is therefore a self fulfilling prophecy


As an aside here is the bonds and dates due for Ireland NTMA bond due dates

[Jolt]

Well, I've been pretty involved and observant of the Paradox thread on this issue which already is far into the dozens of pages. I was browsing and finally saw a thread on the matter, so I shall be informing only where my country is due and dispelling things you people elsewhere hear on magazines or on the news. The reports that Portugal is on the brink of failure and/or comparing the Greek situation with the Portuguese one are pure speculation and doom & gloom.

Before the Economic crisis, the deficit was well-controled in 3.0. As the crisis hit and people got fired, firms closed down and the economy contracted, spending with things like unemployment pensions and assorted social transfers went through the roof (Obviously, the State couldn't let out its people in the cold all of a sudden, especially in contracting economy). The result was that the deficit shot up to 10%. Vast measures of privatization have been taken (And quite controversial too), along with the overall reduction of Statal transfers and increase in direct and indirect taxes. The end result is that the 10.2 deficit of a few months ago has dropped significantly to 8.3 and the latest estimates have axed it to 7.2. Now the government is steadily reducing spending after the immediate period where it had to take the impact of the crisis off it's budget. Just today, the government is using political trickery, taking advantage of the positive public mood, using the coronation of Benfica (The most popular Portuguese Soccer club) as Portuguese champions, along with the Papal visit to the country, to quietly pass a Law-Decree increasing the IRS, effectively increasing yet again the taxes. It has been quite surprising to see how fast the country's deficit fell from 10 to 7.

So, the Portuguese government is duly doing its job in reducing the large deficit incurred from the crisis at a nice pace so far.

So much that the doomsday theories being forwarded by Paradox members now effectively exclude Portugal as a country on the brink of collapse or with a risk for it to happen.

[Furunculus]

Well, I've been pretty involved and observant of the Paradox thread on this issue which already is far into the dozens of pages. I was browsing and finally saw a thread on the matter, so I shall be informing only where my country is due and dispelling things you people elsewhere hear on magazines or on the news. The reports that Portugal is on the brink of failure and/or comparing the Greek situation with the Portuguese one are pure speculation and doom & gloom.

Before the Economic crisis, the deficit was well-controled in 3.0. As the crisis hit and people got fired, firms closed down and the economy contracted, spending with things like unemployment pensions and assorted social transfers went through the roof (Obviously, the State couldn't let out its people in the cold all of a sudden, especially in contracting economy). The result was that the deficit shot up to 10%. Vast measures of privatization have been taken (And quite controversial too), along with the overall reduction of Statal transfers and increase in direct and indirect taxes. The end result is that the 10.2 deficit of a few months ago has dropped significantly to 8.3 and the latest estimates have axed it to 7.2. Now the government is steadily reducing spending after the immediate period where it had to take the impact of the crisis off it's budget. Just today, the government is using political trickery, taking advantage of the positive public mood, using the coronation of Benfica (The most popular Portuguese Soccer club) as Portuguese champions, along with the Papal visit to the country, to quietly pass a Law-Decree increasing the IRS, effectively increasing yet again the taxes. It has been quite surprising to see how fast the country's deficit fell from 10 to 7.

So, the Portuguese government is duly doing its job in reducing the large deficit incurred from the crisis at a nice pace so far.

So much that the doomsday theories being forwarded by Paradox members now effectively exclude Portugal as a country on the brink of collapse or with a risk for it to happen.

sounds like portugal, much like the UK, doesn't have a huge structural deficit, which is a vastly healthier position to be in than greece.

[Hosakawa Tito]

A worthwhile read about how the bailout might and might not play out:

[W]hile the EU’s trillion dollars is surely sufficient to prevent any country from having to default in the next few years, I fear that its enormity will only exacerbate tensions between the euro zone countries over the long term. They’re not all partners together anymore: now they’re bifurcating into the rich lenders, on the one hand, and the formerly-profligate debtors, on the other. The mind-boggling sums involved are only going to increase resentments both of the south in the north and of the north in the south.

The current stock market likes it, but "solving" a debt problem by incurring more debt is just kicking the can down the road.

[Louis VI the Fat]

I said before that if people had stopped lending to Greece earlier, or demanded higher rates for the debt, the whole Greek problem would have been smaller because Greece would have faced market pressures for their foolish behavior. Now that's finally starting to happen more and you call it an attack on Europe?



This is just a way for France and Germany to ban foreign hedge funds and prevent their own citizens from choosing to invest in them. And when foreign funds are banned, where do you think the hedge fund industry will expand? The governments are counting on people to simply accept that any and all regulation is good. Don't be fooled.CR

Oh, I consider Greece very much the main culprit.

But it's not a matter of either / or. Both ill-disciplined Greek governments and culture are to blame, and the financial markets.
After the last round of bailouts, I made a sharp left political turn. Been browsing the anarcho-communist www, because they seem to be the only ones who share my frustration at this endless transfer of money from the taxpayer to the financial institutions.

As for where I think the hedge funds will expand to: nowhere. They'll stay nicely put in the Cayman Islands, undermining our pensions and financial stability away from regulatory oversight and tax.
Me, I think the death penalty was devised specifically for this, but I'll settle for the government at last forcing them to pay taxes on their billion euro profits.