Three Wolf Moon [Concluded]

[Ishmael]

The thing is though that we don't have much additional information to yesterday, so there's only so much that we can still cover in discussion (especially considering ATPG's massive analyses). The only new thing is that the shirt has registered a maifa scan, which looks like it might be legit seeing as JHT was already on our mafia shortlist. Personally I'm using this as evidence to support my radical theory that the shirt works exactly as advertised, but our sample size of scanees (particularly those who are guilty) is still rather small to be drawing concrete conclusions.

[Visor]

2. Why would it be suspicious for Believer and Tratorix to not be killed? Visorslash died tonight, and yet the three confirmed town are still sitting pretty. Hmmmmmmmmm.

I wouldn't think anything of it. I have a habit of being a night target recently. *shrug*

[TheLastDays]

Also, a replacement is usually low on the suspect list. The three confirmed townies, given the discussion about the shirts mechanic, provied much better controversy material. Killing one of them would basically clear them all and the scum don't want to do that at this stage, because, as unreasonable as it might seem, they will want to keep the possibility of those scans being unreliable in the air.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Vote: JohnHughThom

Vote: Believer

Pizza, you did a good job spotlighitng jht. His posting upsurge confirmed it even before teh scan for me. Well done. Sorry, JHT.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Vote: JohnHughThom

Vote: Believer

[Yaropolk]

I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

Montmercy's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
Mafia can kill one of their own.
They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

ATPG's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
ATPG - Memnon are innocent
Johnhugthom is scum
Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
Scan chain has not been compromised.
Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

Total P = product of each night's P's.

Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


Conclusion:

At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


Proposal
1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance

For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
Confirmed innocents are not being killed.


Vote: Johnhugthom
Vote: Yaropolk

[Montmorency]

We'd actually agreed to stop discussing it, but wow.

Why don't more people listen to Yaropolk? Yaropolk has my unconditional love, no matter who's right here.

:sweetheart:

[johnhughthom]

Oh well, at least I didn't get lynched in the deciding round this time. Still at least I get to amuse myself for the rest of the game watching you all try to figure out the game. It's hilarious how far you all are from the truth, even more hilarious it took this long for you to lynch me, despite my making it blatantly obvious I was scum to Double A, and most hilarious of all is the fact the answer to the puzzle of the shirt is staring you all in the face and nobody can see it. We have done well so far my scum buddies, now lets sit back and enjoy the rest of the game.

Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.

[TheLastDays]

Now let's see who can do the most dismissive "dead scum = yawn" post.

You. Suck. I. Win.

:clown:

[B-Wing]

All this excitement has made me prematurely erupt.
:laugh4:

I gotta say, I absolutely love the idea of ATPV being a mafia and having himself murdered to provide the ultimate cover. It's brilliant - probably too far fetched, but infinitely appealing. On that topic, I've always assumed team kills were against mafia rules. Is that not actually the case?

vote: JHT
What are the chances his confession is a lie, like Montmorency's and APTV's? :rolleyes:

vote: Believer
Why not.

I'm going to have to come up with a volcanic name for Yaropolk after he pulled an ATPG, lurking the whole game and then hitting us with a detailed analysis. At least he contained it in one post.

To save me the trouble of searching through the thread on my lunch break, would anyone be willing to tally up who JHT has voted for during the game? I'm thinking you could eliminate those players from the mafia choices.

[Johhog]

Actually, JHT saying that we're far from "the truth" probably means we're on the right track.

I mean, why would he tell us?

[johnhughthom]

Actually, JHT saying that we're far from "the truth" probably means we're on the right track.

I mean, why would he tell us?

:clown:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Actually, JHT saying that we're far from "the truth" probably means we're on the right track.

I mean, why would he tell us?

So we would ask why he would tell us.

As for Yaropolk: :laugh4:

Your maths are brilliant, but your conclusion is not. Sadly, I see where the weakness in my plan for today is; if Believer distanced himself hard from John, then a scum is about to get the shirt.

I think I'm about ready to call it quits on the shirt. But I must run to workies.

[Double A]

john is mafia?


The hell is wrong with the mafia? Are they afraid of me because I'm actually playing instead of leeching off the town? Or is it because jht said he would kill me the first chance he got over on TWC? Or is it because they saw that post and are trying to get me to think it was john? And why am I asking so many questions? Aren't I dead? Braaaaaains?


Your wine sucks. I want my money back.

The main reason I think john is scum is because he said that nasty thing about me and then I died. That's the only thing I can think of why I was killed. Unless it was just to get rid of a vote...

Anyway, scan johnny boy tomorrow night. Or tonight. But soon.

What a surprise.

[Populus Romanus]

We should give the shirt to believer, then lynch him the very next day, just to be sure.:clown:

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

We should give the shirt to believer, then lynch him the very next day, just to be sure.:clown:

Or just give it to me and make my day! :2thumbsup:

[Johhog]

And lynch you the day after?

[Askthepizzaguy]

And lynch you the day after?

:laugh4: He hasn't done much besides vote. It might be worthwhile.

[Believer]

:laugh4: He hasn't done much besides vote. It might be worthwhile.

By that logic you can lynch me too. I haven't done much except that find on Montmorency.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

And lynch you the day after?


Those who do the least typically wins the most. :yes:

[Populus Romanus]

:laugh4: He hasn't done much besides vote. It might be worthwhile. Well at some point we have to kill him, what else will we do, let him live? :laugh4:

[Johhog]

Those who do the least typically wins the most. :yes:
*looks at ATPG*

*slowly shakes head*

[Populus Romanus]

*looks at ATPG*

*slowly shakes head*Precisely, I think there is a reason Warman never survives.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

:laugh4: He hasn't done much besides vote. It might be worthwhile.

I think it's worthwhile lynching players who contribute the most in my opinion and innocent in game. Always fun indeed! :laugh4:

Pizza for all!


Well at some point we have to kill him, what else will we do, let him live? :laugh4:

Sure. :balloon2:


*looks at ATPG*

*slowly shakes head*

Well I survived many games by playing stupid. :yes:


Precisely, I think there is a reason Warman never survives.

Becauses no one likes me. :laugh4:

[Double A]

Maybe they don't like you because you don't post enough.

[Tratorix]

Maybe they don't like you because you don't post enough.

I don't like him because his name isn't nearly long enough. Also it needs more numbers and random symbols.

[TheLastDays]

Exactly... I'll change my username to A)&LU§B12$lßß@89²³\ - see how that'll work out :yes:

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

You guys are giving me to much motivation :laugh:.

[Johhog]

I will be JOHHOGSWEDISHMEATBALLSSURSTRÖMMINGABBAIKEA from now on. ;)

[Zack]

I am very sorry, everyone. I forgot about the update, and I'm about to leave the house, so I can only give a bare-bones writeup. Last time, I promise!

johnhughthom was lynched!

Believer has received the shirt!







It is now NIGHT FIVE!




ALIVE:

[10]

B_Ray
Believer
Ishmael
Johhog -- Scanned Town (N1)
Memnon -- Scanned Town (N3)
Populus Romanus -- Scanned Town (N2)
Seamus Fermanagh
Tratorix
Yaropolk
Warman


LYNCHED:

[3]

TheLastDays (D1)
Montmorency (D4)
johnhughthom (D5)


KILLED:

[4]

Double A (N1)
Seon (N2)
Askthepizzaguy (N3)
Visorslash (N4)


WEARERS OF THE SHIRT:

[5]

Memnon (N1)
Johhog (N2)
ATPG (N3)
Populus Romanus (N4)
Believer -- current wearer

[Populus Romanus]

Hmmm, the round is over. Where are you Zack?

[Zack]

Deadline:

[Populus Romanus]

THE MOST EPIC NINJA IN HISTORY!

[TheLastDays]

...SURSTRÖMMING...

Disgusting...

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

Indeed.

[johnhughthom]

Indubitably.

North Sea herring is far superior. You can't eat fish when you're dead though.

[Populus Romanus]

Believer, who are you scanning?

[Montmorency]

You'll find out tomorrow. :evil:

[Believer]

Believer, who are you scanning?

Scanning Pizza for obvious reasons.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Scanning Pizza for obvious reasons.

Don't just scan me, man. You've got my body all to yourself for the whole night.

[Believer]

Don't just scan me, man. You've got my body all to yourself for the whole night.

It's even better when you can't move. <3

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Probably offline until late tomorrow night EDT or possibly even sunday. Got to take the kids to grandmom's and don't think I will get on.

[Johhog]

Nothing is wrong with Surströmming, it rules! Is there any of you denouncing Surströmming who have actually tried it?

[Populus Romanus]

I prefer salmon.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Cmon Zack, you probably have all the orders. Let's do this thing.

[Johhog]

I prefer salmon.
Heretic. Ingvar Kamprad is on his way to your place to smash your face.

[Ishmael]

According to the ever-reliable Wikipedia, "a Japanese study has shown that the smell of a newly opened can of surströmming is the most putrid smell of food in the world." I think I agree with Populus Romanus on this one, then - I have very mild tastes (fresh salmon only, of course - none of that horrible tinned stuff).

[Johhog]

Yeah, they're not kidding, it smells horrible (you can seriously not open it in a house, you have to go to the woods) but it tastes delicious. I mean, how good do blue cheese smell? Still awesome.

[Zack]

Cmon Zack, you probably have all the orders. Let's do this thing.
:eyebrows:

[Populus Romanus]

I have never heard of surströmming, but I'll trust its terrible.
Cmon Zack, you probably have all the orders. Let's do this thing. :yes: I want to know if I am still alive.:uhoh:

[Double A]

Yeah, they're not kidding, it smells horrible (you can seriously not open it in a house, you have to go to the woods) but it tastes delicious. I mean, how good do blue cheese smell? Still awesome.

What happens if you open it in someone else's house?

[Johhog]

What happens if you open it in someone else's house?
They will chase you through the town.

[Populus Romanus]

You could open it in their refrigerator. :evil:

[Tratorix]

Fish-talk is lame. Come on, lets do this thang.

[TheLastDays]

Surströmming is just disgusting. You know they always eat it the day before the trash company comes so the cans aren't in the trash for more than one night?

[Double A]

I checked wikipedia. It said the fish was rotten.

No freaking way am I going to eat rotten food, no matter how delicious it supposedly is.

[Montmorency]

Is this stuff the same as lutefisk? Also, you guys know that you don't have to eat rotten fish, right? Europe achieved food security long ago. :P

[Zack]

Tratorix couldn't sleep. He feared for his life, and rightly so. When his door opened, slight as it was, Tratorix almost wet himself in fear.

Tratorix: "Who are you?"

It came out as barely a whisper. A dark figure soon entered the room, then strode over to Tratorix's bed, smiling.

Figure: "No one of any consequence."

He then slit Tratorix's throat.

-------

That morning, everyone waited anxiously downstairs in the main room.

Tratorix wasn't one of them.

When Believer came down the stairs, he paused to address the crowd.

Believer: "I have found out that... um... uh... oh, I can't remember his name."

Several minutes passed.

Believer: "Anti... no... Elite.... no, no, that's not right either. Oh, screw it. Warman is town."

Warman: "Ha! I told you! I told you!"








It is now DAY SIX!




ALIVE:

[9]

B_Ray
Believer
Ishmael
Johhog -- Scanned Town (N1)
Memnon -- Scanned Town (N3)
Populus Romanus -- Scanned Town (N2)
Seamus Fermanagh
Yaropolk
Warman -- Scanned Town (N5)


LYNCHED:

[3]

TheLastDays (D1)
Montmorency (D4)
johnhughthom (D5)


KILLED:

[5]

Double A (N1)
Seon (N2)
Askthepizzaguy (N3)
Visorslash (N4)
Tratorix (N5)


WEARERS OF THE SHIRT:

[5]

Memnon (N1)
Johhog (N2)
ATPG (N3)
Populus Romanus (N4)
Believer (N5)

[Zack]

Deadline:

[Montmorency]

Eh.

So now should I believe that Warman, Believer, and John are Mafia? Christ. :|

[Tratorix]

Eh.

So now should I believe that Warman, Believer, and John are Mafia? Christ. :|

Quiet scum.

[Montmorency]

Correction: noisy scum.

[Tratorix]

I say lynch B-Ray. I legitimately think he's mafia and I'm a proven townie now. Also, investigate Seamus next round.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Note: I believe there are 3 scumbags remaining.

As such, this is your second to last lynch.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I say lynch B-Ray. I legitimately think he's mafia and I'm a proven townie now. Also, investigate Seamus next round.

Agreed, B_Ray is a good lynch

[Populus Romanus]

We should vote Warman the shirt on the condition that he investigates Seamus. Since it is likely Seamus is mafia, we can use Warman's scan as a control to see whether Believer and Warman are real townies or mafia.

Vote: B_Ray
Vote: Warman

[Believer]

Vote: B_Ray

Vote: Warman


Montmorency, starting to look bad eh?

[Populus Romanus]

Eh.

So now should I believe that Warman, Believer, and John are Mafia? Christ. :|No, who said anything about Believer and Warman being scum (yet)? And you forget to put yourself on that list.:tongue:

[Montmorency]

lolwut

I'm already dead bro.

[Memnon]

Hm... I'm not entirely sure what to do, I wish the chain of confirmed townies hadn't been broken, but we got john at least.

I guess I'll go ahead and Vote:B_Ray, just because I haven't gotten much information out of his posts, and I'll also Vote: Warman, only if he scans another townie, so I know I can trust the results, he could also scan an already confirmed townie in order to confirm himself, but that's probably too much to ask.
On another note, rotten fish can't be any worse than pig's blood dried up with oatmeal and brain matter, so I'd like to give it a try sometime:laugh4:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Hm... I'm not entirely sure what to do, I wish the chain of confirmed townies hadn't been broken, but we got john at least.

Now I am glad that everyone understands what I meant about the unbroken chain; I was right that lynching John without scanning him was wise, and that trying to scan townies was more advantageous than scanning scumbags here.

[Tratorix]

Anyone seriously doubting the B-Ray lynch needs to go read some of his posts in the No Country For Old Men thread. He's doing the same sort of half lurking, posting-but-not-contributing thing here as he was in that game. I wouldn't 100% trust any of the scans after Pop Rom, since the chain breaking means any old scum could have gotten the shirt. Also, I'm not really sure about Believer's scan. Sure Warman's hard to read, but he isn't exactly a feared mafioso either.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I didn't want to reveal my true feelings about Warman until today, and tossed some slime on him yesterday to be sure.

I actually believe he's townie. I believe the scan, but I would have doubted it if he flipped scum.

I trust Warman over anyone else alive right now, as far as trust of the unscanned-by-the-chain would go. Maybe thats a mistake but he's the one who I see has done none of the classic "I've got a teammate" moves, which makes me believe he's town.

I never try to read him, I've tried this time, this is my novice conclusion.

[Memnon]

I didn't want to reveal my true feelings about Warman until today, and tossed some slime on him yesterday to be sure.

I actually believe he's townie. I believe the scan, but I would have doubted it if he flipped scum.

I trust Warman over anyone else alive right now, as far as trust of the unscanned-by-the-chain would go. Maybe thats a mistake but he's the one who I see has done none of the classic "I've got a teammate" moves, which makes me believe he's town.

I never try to read him, I've tried this time, this is my novice conclusion.

If you're right, and the presumptions about the shirt are correct, this would clear Believer as well, leaving B_Ray, Ishmael, Seamus, and Yaropolk, I presume the only reason that myself and the others in my chain(excepting you Pizzaguy) are alive is to frame us, so will they try to frame Believer and Warman as well? Or will they finally strike?

Also, the only thing we have to fear is Warman's name getting longer from this, so no more variations on his name, we're all giving him ideas:laugh4:

[Askthepizzaguy]

If you're right, and the presumptions about the shirt are correct, this would clear Believer as well, leaving B_Ray, Ishmael, Seamus, and Yaropolk, I presume the only reason that myself and the others in my chain(excepting you Pizzaguy) are alive is to frame us, so will they try to frame Believer and Warman as well? Or will they finally strike?

Also, the only thing we have to fear is Warman's name getting longer from this, so no more variations on his name, we're all giving him ideas:laugh4:

Technically Believer is not cleared. He could have told the truth about Warman as mafia anyway. Which is what I would have done if I were Believer.

They have to strike you soon or accept defeat. I think they are trying to get the paranoia to happen.

Thing is, it is also possible the shirt is a bastard, giving us false results. As such, the game host is a bastard :clown:, and we're silly for trusting the shirt.

[Populus Romanus]

I'll take a risk and trust the shirt.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I'll take a risk and trust the shirt.

Yeah, losing a bastard game isn't worth the fear infecting games with sane hosts. Assume the shirt isn't a low blow to the townies, or assume there was something useful about it even to the town; since it gave either sane, insane, or lie results, and lie results means bastard game, it's either trustworthy in the standard way or trustworthy in the inverted sense; and johnhughthom didn't bother suggesting that the shirt was an insane detective, and if he was townie he would know that for sure.

Therefore, the shirt is sane unless its in the hands of a wolf.

[Double A]

BY THE GREEN BLOOD OF pever, YOU GUYS, KILL MORTY ALREADY!

[Montmorency]

Am I that convincing? Maybe I should get into that Netherworld game and vote one of the survivors. Perhaps even the host will be fooled.

[Tratorix]

BY THE GREEN BLOOD OF pever, YOU GUYS, KILL MORTY ALREADY!

1: pevergreen, theres a name I haven't heard in a while.

2: Who the heck is Morty?

[Double A]

I meant Monty. My finger slipped... across half the keyboard.

[Memnon]

Um.. he's dead already, lynched I believe

[Tratorix]

Um.. he's dead already, lynched I believe

Well Double A says we got to kill him again! Vote: Morty

[Memnon]

Well, this is awkward, it appears that you've been killed as well...:clown:

[Tratorix]

Well, this is awkward, it appears that you've been killed as well...:clown:

:shocked:

[Montmorency]

I know exactly who I'm going to vig first in Capo. :evil:

[Tratorix]

I know exactly who I'm going to vig first in Capo. :evil:

Double A?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Vote: B-Ray; Vote: Warman etc.

I don't agree with your mafia numbers assessment, Pizza. I think that many mafiosi would be an imbalance from a games construction perspective.

I am happy with the B-Ray vote, at least until I hear him argue against it a bit.

Other thoughts?

[Ishmael]

Upon re-reading through the thread I'm still getting scummy vibes from Seamus. I'm not going to compile evidence to support this, as I'm rather lazy and don't have much time at the moment - call it a hunch, if you will. I realise that I'm not selling this case very well, but feel free to scan through the thread yourselves and see what conclusions you draw. Anyway:

vote: Seamus Fermanagh
vote: Warman

Also, FoS: Yarapolk, for similar reasons to the above.

[Tratorix]

Upon re-reading through the thread I'm still getting scummy vibes from Seamus. I'm not going to compile evidence to support this, as I'm rather lazy and don't have much time at the moment - call it a hunch, if you will. I realise that I'm not selling this case very well, but feel free to scan through the thread yourselves and see what conclusions you draw. Anyway:

vote: Seamus Fermanagh
vote: Warman

Also, FoS: Yarapolk, for similar reasons to the above.

Lynch B-Ray, scan Seamus. If Seamus comes up innocent lynch Ishmael

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lynch B-Ray, scan Seamus. If Seamus comes up innocent lynch Ishmael

Also: if Seamus comes up as guilty lynch Ishmael.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Vote: B-Ray; Vote: Warman etc.

I don't agree with your mafia numbers assessment, Pizza. I think that many mafiosi would be an imbalance from a games construction perspective.


Small game with a "detective" that cannot die?

Disagree. Mafia needs at least one over standard. Standard for a game this size is 2-3.

[Tratorix]

Small game with a "detective" that cannot die?

Disagree. Mafia needs at least one over standard. Standard for a game this size is 2-3.

I say 3. 4 seems too powerful for a small game and two seems underpowered.

[Ishmael]

Lynch B-Ray, scan Seamus. If Seamus comes up innocent lynch Ishmael

I'd like to point out that poor judgement does not necessarily make a mafioso - look at my earlier work in Vespasian as an example :yes:. I really don't see where the case on B_Ray is coming from, though - sure he's posting similarly to his game as mafia, but that may just be his posting style. He might be scum, but Yarapolk and Seamus seem far more likely.

[Tratorix]

I'd like to point out that poor judgement does not necessarily make a mafioso - look at my earlier work in Vespasian as an example :yes:. I really don't see where the case on B_Ray is coming from, though - sure he's posting similarly to his game as mafia, but that may just be his posting style. He might be scum, but Yarapolk and Seamus seem far more likely.

Scum scum scum. :laugh:

[Askthepizzaguy]

I would like to bring the Montmercy v Pizza debate to a close because they are screaming over each other and drowning out all other debate. First of all I'm going to ask both Pizza and Montmercy to refrain from responding in a wall of posts to this.

I am not much of a behavior analyst but I am pretty good with facts and statistics. I will start by summarizing both theories.

Montmercy's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt it reverses the investigation results.
ATPG, Populus Romanus, Johhog, and Memnon are mafia.
Mafia can kill one of their own.
They set up a chain to clear themselves, then ATPG sacrificed himself to clear the first link of the chain.
Mafia is not killing Confirmed Innocents because they aren't innocent

ATPG's Theory:
When town use shirt it shows correct investigation results.
When scum use shirt we don't know what happens.
ATPG - Memnon are innocent
Johnhugthom is scum
Remaining mafia can be found among B-Ray, Believer, Ishmael, Seamus, Tratorix, Yaropolk, Warman
Scan chain has not been compromised.
Mafia are not killing Confirmed Innocents for WIFOM reasons

I calculated the probability of the ATPG chain scanning 3 innocents in a row without ever hitting the same target as mafia. The formula that I used is:

P of hitting innocent = (#Alive - #Confirmed Innocents (as you wouldn't scan them) - Self (1) - Mafia Kill (1 except when ATPG died) - #of Mafia (3 or 4)) / #Alive

Total P = product of each night's P's.

Night Alive C.I. Self Killed 3 Mafia 4 Mafia
1.........16.....0......1.......1........0.69.......0.63
2.........15.....1......1.......1........0.60.......0.53
3.........14.....2......1.......0........0.57.......0.50
TOTAL:...................................0.24.......0.17
There is a 17% or 24% chance for ATGP chain scan to occur naturally. It's pretty low but not beyond impossibility.


Conclusion:

At the end of today's day we will have 10 people alive (assuming JH is lynched)
If we started with 4 mafia, 1 will be dead under either theory (ATPG or JH)
That means that once we are down to 6 players we're toast (unless we lynch some more scum).
If we refrain from further lynching except when mafia is located we have 4 rounds remaining.
Each incorrect lynch cuts the number of remaining rounds by 1.

To validate Montmercy's theory will take 1 night scan - someone outside the chain must scan Memnon.
To validate ATPG's theory we'll have to keep scanning half of the remaining 8, essentially a 50/50% chance of finding scum.


Proposal
1) We lynch JH in case ATPG is correct
2) We spend the 1 day scanning Memnon to put that theory to rest. I would prefer this would not be done by someone nominated by Pizza. I nominate myself. Believer - if you prevail over me, I would ask you to investigate Memnon regardless.

I am note convinced of either theory yet, however here are my non-statistical reasons for giving Montmercy's theory a chance

For pizza to sacrifice himself was not necessary - they could have just trailed the chain off into innocents, but this would be an awesome move if they're mafia and ATPG goes for bold moves all the time.
Making investigation results public without a twist would be too overpowering.
Confirmed innocents are not being killed.


Vote: Johnhugthom
Vote: Yaropolk

Also, the only thing Yaropolk has ever given a flipping dooky about all game was getting the shirt for himself and, failing that, Believer scanning Memnon.

Oh, I think Warman should scan Memnon all right.

I don't need a scanning shirt at this point. Yaropolk gotta die. :bounce:

Along with his buddy B_Ray. :bounce:

Along with his buddy Ishmael. :bounce:


But, let's pretend I am wrong for a moment.

Let's see...

out of these three, which of them are townie?

Which? Which witch is which?


Yaropolk.... B_Ray.... Ishmael.

Which is townie, which is scum.

Dunno. Willing to place bets on Yaropolk being a scummer presently, he really wants to get the shirt and doesn't really care about a whole lot else.

B_Ray or Ishmael... which of these should be scanned?

Ishmael said he would be fine with being scanned.

Perhaps B_Ray would like to plead for his life..... and beg us to scan him.

[Askthepizzaguy]

I want to hear some seriously pitiable groveling now.

[Johhog]

VOTE: B_Ray
VOTE: ELITEAFKWARMANBREADMAN etc.
Scan Seamus. Do it. Also I think we should lynch Seamus if he comes up guilty, we can't afford the risk that there's one more scum than we thought.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Or is all that really necessary? Lemme see.


Lynch B_Ray blind (Check)
Scan Seamus, Seamus gets murdered or gets the shirt or gets lynched. (Check)
Lynch Yaropolk blind if Seamus flips townie. (Check)
Anyone can scan Ishmael, doesn't really matter at that point. (Check)


That's everyone but Believer.

And, if Believer is scum, his buddies will be dead by then anyway. (Checkmate)


Game is over. Go ahead and scan Seamus then. If he's guilty he dies faster. If he's innocent he dies faster or gets the shirt.

Love this plan.

[Ishmael]

I like the bit where I don't get lynched :beam:. Whilst you guys have swayed me away from lynching Seamus right now, I still think Yarapolk looks more guilty than B_Ray. Nevertheless, in the interests of town unity:

unvote, vote: B_Ray

[Johhog]

^that's a town reaction.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Pizza approves.

[Double A]

I know exactly who I'm going to vig first in Capo. :evil:

I swear on the life of my doggie, if you N1 kill me in Capo IV, I will hunt you down and throw you off a roof until you are at least moderately inconvenienced by the blood in your eyes.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Or is all that really necessary? Lemme see.


Lynch B_Ray blind (Check)
Scan Seamus, Seamus gets murdered or gets the shirt or gets lynched. (Check)
Lynch Yaropolk blind if Seamus flips townie. (Check)
Anyone can scan Ishmael, doesn't really matter at that point. (Check)


That's everyone but Believer.

And, if Believer is scum, his buddies will be dead by then anyway. (Checkmate)


Game is over. Go ahead and scan Seamus then. If he's guilty he dies faster. If he's innocent he dies faster or gets the shirt.

Love this plan.

Well, I am not happy in that it is yet another game that I end up dead -- I survive so few as a townie, but I have to agree with your numbers assessment. Roll on.

[B-Wing]

Sorry for not being more active over the past few days. Got caught up with the start of college football season, been out of town, and haven't put in near as much time as I'd prefer to.

Seems to be an irreversible bandwagon on me right now, but I'll vote: Yaropolk. His big analytical post just seemed like an attempt to say, "Look, I'm participating and making up numbers!"

And vote: Seamus, cause he's cool.

[Montmorency]

Yaropolk is better than you! :clown:

[Johhog]

I swear on the life of my doggie, if you N1 kill me in Capo IV, I will hunt you down and throw you off a roof until you are at least moderately inconvenienced by the blood in your eyes.
inb4 you don't own a dog.

And vote: Seamus, cause he's cool.
Fail.

[Double A]

Do to.

[Tratorix]

Sorry for not being more active over the past few days. Got caught up with the start of college football season, been out of town, and haven't put in near as much time as I'd prefer to.

Seems to be an irreversible bandwagon on me right now, but I'll vote: Yaropolk. His big analytical post just seemed like an attempt to say, "Look, I'm participating and making up numbers!"

And vote: Seamus, cause he's cool.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1ytCEuuW2_A

[Johhog]

Do to.
http://tzr.ro/wp-content/uploads/2011/06/Bunny-with-a-pancake.jpg

[Populus Romanus]

He is saying that he does own a dog.

[Double A]

She has as many brain cells as this sentence has words.

[Zack]

Since there is such an overwhelming majority, I'm going to go ahead and close voting now.

Lynch

B_Ray: 6 (Believer, Ishmael, Johhog, Memnon, Populus Romanus, Seamus Fermanagh)
Yaropolk: 1 (B_Ray)

Not Voting: 2 (Yaropolk, Warman)

Shirt

Warman: 6 (Believer, Ishmael, Johhog, Memnon, Populus Romanus, Seamus Fermanagh)
Seamus: 1 (B_Ray)

Not Voting: 2 (Yaropolk, Warman)

[Zack]

Today, there was almost no argument on both who was to be killed, and who was to receive the shirt.

Well, except for the victim of all the accusations, B_Ray.

B_Ray: "No, no, no! Kill Yaropolk, not me -- he's the one killing you at night, while you sleep! Oh, and I think the shirt should go to my dear buddy, Seamus Fermanagh."

B_Ray winked at Seamus, who looked back at him with a puzzled expression on his face.

Johhog: "I won't be having any of that, you miscreant. Off with your head, scumbag!"

Five Others: "Hear, hear!"

Populus Romanus: "We're no really going to decapitate him, are we?"

Memnon: "Oh, no. No, we're much more civilized than that. We'll just barbarically tear his body to shreds."

Seamus nodded his head in agreement.

Seamus: "We're quite a humane lot."

Believer, Ishmael, Johhog, Memnon, Populus Romanus, and Seamus Fermanagh proceeded to rip B_Ray's body to pieces. Yaropolk looked on distastefully, mumbling about "bloody savages". Warman was too busy putting on the Three Wolf Moon shirt to notice the murder occurring just a few feet away from him.

And B_Ray was too busy screaming to do anything else.








It is now NIGHT SIX!




ALIVE:

[8]

Believer
Ishmael
Johhog -- Scanned Town (N1)
Memnon -- Scanned Town (N3)
Populus Romanus -- Scanned Town (N2)
Seamus Fermanagh
Yaropolk
Warman -- Scanned Town (N5)


LYNCHED:

[4]

TheLastDays (D1)
Montmorency (D4)
johnhughthom (D5)
B_Ray (D6)


KILLED:

[5]

Double A (N1)
Seon (N2)
Askthepizzaguy (N3)
Visorslash (N4)
Tratorix (N5)


WEARERS OF THE SHIRT:

[6]

Memnon (N1)
Johhog (N2)
ATPG (N3)
Populus Romanus (N4)
Believer (N5)
Warman -- current wearer

[Zack]

The next morning, everyone came downstairs, surprised to see that no one was missing.

Believer: "Well, I guess we ratted out the killers, eh?"

Ishmael: "Technically, aren't we also killers?"

Johhog: "That's different! No more people are killing at night!"

Ishmael shrugged.

Warman: "So.... I can just keep this shirt, right?"

The others glared at Warman.

Everyone except Warman: "We'll see about that...."







TOWN VICTORY!




ALIVE:

[8]

Believer
Ishmael
Johhog
Memnon
Populus Romanus
Seamus Fermanagh
Yaropolk
Warman


LYNCHED:

[4]

TheLastDays (D1)
Montmorency (D4)
johnhughthom (D5) -- MAFIA
B_Ray (D6) -- MAFIA


KILLED:

[5]

Double A (N1)
Seon (N2)
Askthepizzaguy (N3)
Visorslash (N4)
Tratorix (N5)


WEARERS OF THE SHIRT:

[6]

Memnon (N1)
Johhog (N2)
ATPG (N3)
Populus Romanus (N4)
Believer (N5)
Warman (N6)

[Zack]

Congratulations, you two are mafia.

Your goal is to eliminate all members of the town. You have several abilities at your disposal:


Each night, your team may kill one player.

If either of you gain possession of the shirt, you will be able to fake a scan with the shirt. This means that you may select any player, and tell me what you want their alignment to be revealed as.

Example:

Let's say B_Ray gets the shirt. B_Ray could then send me a PM that looks like this:


Make blahblah appear as mafia.

blahblah would then appear to be scanned as mafia in the update.

Or this:


Make johnhughthom appear as town.

JHT would appear to have been scanned as town in the update.

Capiche?

You may discuss the game with each other here. (http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/HH7bwGZ5sqni) (http://www.quicktopic.com/46/H/HH7bwGZ5sqni)

Good luck, and may the wolves be with you!

Wow, that was lame. I apologize.

In retrospect, I think three mafia would have fit in better with the theme of the game, and been better balanced.

Thanks for playing, everyone!

[Montmorency]

Well Pizza, I must say... :shakehands:

But so much for 4 Mafia :stare:

[Tratorix]

Wooooo! Town win! GG all.

[TheLastDays]

Yeah, I won! :D

I should let myself get lynched D1 more often xD

[Populus Romanus]

I didn't see that coming. Yeah!

[B-Wing]

Good game, all! Was fun while it lasted.

I very much enjoyed the discussion between ATPG and Montmorency. Very entertaining stuff. I was hopeful that ATPG's directioning wouldn't point to JHT or myself for a long time, but we didn't manage to fly under the radar. Probably should have been more vocal overall, and picked a side in the ATPG / Montmorency debate. Since neither side was correct in their main suspicions, I figured it would be safest to just stay out of the conversation, but that didn't work. I also didn't have the motivation to read all ATPG's posts, so I wasn't really prepared to argue about it one way or the other. :embarassed:

I'm not sure if not getting the shirt was actually disadvantageous for us (the scum) or not.

It was quite funny getting paired with JHT after his promise to get revenge on me killing him first in A Country for Old Men. And we did, in fact, kill Double A because JHT had promised he would do so at the next opportunity. That was nice.

[johnhughthom]

Thanks for the game Zack. :bow:

Well played town, deserved victory.

[Believer]

Good game, all! Was fun while it lasted.

I very much enjoyed the discussion between ATPG and Montmorency. Very entertaining stuff. I was hopeful that ATPG's directioning wouldn't point to JHT or myself for a long time, but we didn't manage to fly under the radar. Probably should have been more vocal overall, and picked a side in the ATPG / Montmorency debate. Since neither side was correct in their main suspicions, I figured it would be safest to just stay out of the conversation, but that didn't work. I also didn't have the motivation to read all ATPG's posts, so I wasn't really prepared to argue about it one way or the other. :embarassed:

I'm not sure if not getting the shirt was actually disadvantageous for us (the scum) or not.

It was quite funny getting paired with JHT after his promise to get revenge on me killing him first in A Country for Old Men. And we did, in fact, kill Double A because JHT had promised he would do so at the next opportunity. That was nice.


Thanks for the game Zack. :bow:

Well played town, deserved victory.

Honorable opponents, Believer strongly approves. Well played.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Zack, a fun game. Thanks.

First time I have ever been the focus of pizza's loving attention -- my but he can write, and some good analysis under it as well.

[Double A]

Over at TWC I've just told Double A I will kill him the very next time I get a chance to do so. Can we, can we, please, please, pretty please?

:stare:

[Memnon]

WOOHOO! albeit a little anticlimactic, but I won my first game nonetheless! I actually thought that you were a dud lynch B_Ray, but i was wrong, okay, one game won(perfect record!) and the rest to go

[Askthepizzaguy]

In retrospect, I think three mafia would have fit in better with the theme of the game, and been better balanced.

Thanks for playing, everyone!

Do this game again, with 4 mafiosi.

I'm dead serious. You didn't put enough scums in the game.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Zack, a fun game. Thanks.

First time I have ever been the focus of pizza's loving attention -- my but he can write, and some good analysis under it as well.

The thing I did right was not be satisfied with one case, but examine a few people.

I managed to get it right on the third case, but Monty was acting so wrong that he went ahead of Johnhughthom.

Then he revealed as scum when he died; I'm sorta furious about that, no offense Monty. That tainted my analysis of everyone in the game.

Being paranoid about the scans and the chain was correct; since the scums could falsely clear themselves, that was a huge danger. Me scanning Memnon and promptly dying essentially cleared 3 townies at once, and by then, the blind lynches alone favored the town. We could afford to drop Monty and still nail the scums, even if there were 4 of them.

As I said, game would be balanced with 3-4 scums. An immortal detective (the shirt) is worth 1-2 scums easily.

Thanks be to those who cooperated with my interrogations.
Thanks be to those who did not take my accusations personally.
Thanks be to those of you who took a chance on me even though I was not scanned. That's using your own analytical abilities and you did well. I am impressed and you've turned around my impression of what townies can do, which as I said was at a low point lately.

I am guessing that Tratorix was assumed to have been scanned on the night he was killed; congrats to Believer for his excellent play all game but ALSO for guessing correctly on a townie that wasnt going to be murdered for the scan. Scanning Warman was the final nail in the coffin, really.

Tratorix did an excellent job with his far less wordy analysis of the game. Very well done.

I don't think I've seen a town more organized and united than they were on that final round. Our minds became one.

Resistance was indeed futile.

[Ishmael]

Yes! My first game that I both won and survived!

On a tangentially related note, why is it that people always suspect me? If I do end up being mafia in Capo, I'll have a life expectancy of about one day :yes:.

[Visor]

Good job.


On a tangentially related note, why is it that people always suspect me? If I do end up being mafia in Capo, I'll have a life expectancy of about one day .

I didn't suspect you in Vespasian. :smug:

Welcome to the club. :tongue: About to be lynched early again as protown role. :no:

[Montmorency]

Man, I became so entangled in my convolutions that I couldn't divest myself of them even after they ceased being convincing to me. Well, at least I understood why town is always eager to lynch you. You set off these recursive panic alarms, and it's very stressful.

Maybe because it was a fairly small and simple game, everything turned out to be very straightforward. The Mafia never tried anything particularly devious or sneaky, and the town was spot-on by the midgame. Without my ravings the thread would have perfectly mirrored the game itself: a steely, relentless march against the Mafia. They never stood a chance.


In this game, the iron fists of the town meet the hollow bones of the Mafia - and break them.

Perhaps I should hope for similar attitudes to prevail in the future. :evil:

[Askthepizzaguy]

Man, I became so entangled in my convolutions that I couldn't divest myself of them even after they ceased being convincing to me. Well, at least I understood why town is always eager to lynch you. You set off these recursive panic alarms, and it's very stressful.

I am the player most prominently featured in any mafia quicktopic, primarily because I give that same reaction to the scums if I am anywhere close to being right.


Yep, proven townie dead pizza. Awesome.

JHT's reaction to me being dead proven townie in the QT just about sums it up. My first two cases were dead wrong AND I was urging a wagon on Monty instead of him, but you could already feel the enthusiasm slipping away with that comment.

I'm glad I pushed B_Ray onto my list of suspects, tied with Seamus for 3rd after Johnhughthom 2nd.

Monty.... Monty, Monty, we must discuss this whole admitting scum while not being scum thing.

[Askthepizzaguy]

About to be lynched early again as protown role. :no:

God :daisy:

I'll handle it, again. :wall:

[Montmorency]

I was heady with power. :smile:

[Visor]

God :daisy:

I'll handle it, again. :wall:

Again? This game, and pretty much no other, really?

[Tratorix]

Being paranoid about the scans and the chain was correct; since the scums could falsely clear themselves, that was a huge danger. Me scanning Memnon and promptly dying essentially cleared 3 townies at once, and by then, the blind lynches alone favored the town. We could afford to drop Monty and still nail the scums, even if there were 4 of them.

I'm really not sure what was supposed to be gained with that move. I mean, there was still a lot of suspicion on you once you died, if you had survived we probably would have ended up lynching you the next day.

[Believer]

I am guessing that Tratorix was assumed to have been scanned on the night he was killed; congrats to Believer for his excellent play all game but ALSO for guessing correctly on a townie that wasnt going to be murdered for the scan. Scanning Warman was the final nail in the coffin, really.

I'm starting to think you're coming on to me. :$

Thanks. :)

[Johhog]

Lolwut? Didn't Monty confess to being scum?

[Askthepizzaguy]

Lolwut? Didn't Monty confess to being scum?

Indeed he did. And we all told him how wrong that was.

That said, congratulations Monty and Tratorix on figuring out the twist of the game before anyone else; that the shirt wasn't reliable on the backs of a wolf, obviously.

It was so obvious I had to make sure that Memnon was town before we continued. I hate surprises.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Again? This game, and pretty much no other, really?

Well, this will be the first time I rescue you. But I've done this sorta thing before. I'm always putting out brush fires.

[Johhog]

TRATORIX, start your Mafia game. You're stalling the queue. >:O

[TheLastDays]

Haha, someone's eager to host his own game :tongue:


You know, I feel really bad TLD sacrificed himself to let me live past day 1 and I'm scum...

Awwww... I'm touched ^^

[johnhughthom]

Awwww... I'm touched ^^

I'd just had a spate of day one deaths so I knew how annoying it is. Though my letting you do it was probably something of a scumtell, I doubt I'd have gone along with it if I had been town.


JHT's reaction to me being dead proven townie in the QT just about sums it up.

I didn't like that kill at all, but I only got online just before the deadline and B_Ray wasn't about, so there was no time to discuss it.

Anyone else thinking that if everybody who thinks they are going to die night one in Capo does in fact die night one, it's going to be a very short game?

[Double A]

I'm dead serious. You didn't put enough scums in the game.

hehe

[Populus Romanus]

The first game I survived. Yay! I bet will die night 1 in Capo IV because of this. :skull:

[Zack]

Can a mod change the thread name?

[TheLastDays]

Anyone else thinking that if everybody who thinks they are going to die night one in Capo does in fact die night one, it's going to be a very short game?


The first game I survived. Yay! I bet will die night 1 in Capo IV because of this. :skull:

:laugh4:

[Johhog]

Haha, someone's eager to host his own game :tongue:
Why do you think that? Maybe I'm just eager to play in Tratorix's game... :sweatdrop:

[Memnon]

Has Tratorix opened a thread for his game yet? If so, where can I go to join it? I've got mafia fever!

[Double A]

What's Tractorix's game about, anyway?

[Zack]

Bill and Ted.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Bill and Ted.

How timely. New York only recently passed that legislation.

[Double A]

Gah?

[Zack]

What do you fellas think the optimal strategy for the town and mafia would be in this game? Let's say 3 mafia, 14 townies, everything else about the game is the same.

Here's my thoughts:

Town: Lynch blindly, try to keep scanning townies at night and keep an unbroken chain (basically what ATPG said).

Mafia: Try to get the shirt, then ??

[Double A]

Maybe as a balancing mechanism, you can't give the shirt to someone who was just scanned. Or something.

[Askthepizzaguy]

Maybe as a balancing mechanism, you can't give the shirt to someone who was just scanned. Or something.

That would drastically alter gameplay;

Either would make a fun game but I like the dynamic of attempting to make a chain, and also, scumbags clearing each other and giving each other the shirt.

With more scumbags it would be a real challenge.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

The next morning, everyone came downstairs, surprised to see that no one was missing.

Believer: "Well, I guess we ratted out the killers, eh?"

Ishmael: "Technically, aren't we also killers?"

Johhog: "That's different! No more people are killing at night!"

Ishmael shrugged.

Warman: "So.... I can just keep this shirt, right?"

The others glared at Warman.

Everyone except Warman: "We'll see about that...."







TOWN VICTORY!




ALIVE:

[8]

Believer
Ishmael
Johhog
Memnon
Populus Romanus
Seamus Fermanagh
Yaropolk
Warman


LYNCHED:

[4]

TheLastDays (D1)
Montmorency (D4)
johnhughthom (D5) -- MAFIA
B_Ray (D6) -- MAFIA


KILLED:

[5]

Double A (N1)
Seon (N2)
Askthepizzaguy (N3)
Visorslash (N4)
Tratorix (N5)


WEARERS OF THE SHIRT:

[6]

Memnon (N1)
Johhog (N2)
ATPG (N3)
Populus Romanus (N4)
Believer (N5)
Warman (N6)



I came back from a 3 days vacation 13 hours ago and now I see I won (town win)? YAYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYYY!



I do what to keep that shirt!! :clown::laugh4:

[classical_hero]

When is the next small game up?

[Johhog]

Warman has the next one, he told me it will be up today.

[ELITEofWARMANGINGERYBREADMEN88]

When is the next small game up?

Soon :clown:!


Warman has the next one, he told me it will be up today.


Indeed! :clown: