Ukraine Thread

[Gilrandir]

You do know that German officers were mostly responsible for training Russian army since Peter the Great, so it is quite normal for Russian and German military traditions to be similar.

I don't mean military parades only. Demostrations were also designed according to similar patterns.



As for similarity in uniforms, that's a laugh.
Google those of pioneers and Hitlerjugend.

[Sarmatian]

I don't mean military parades only. Demostrations were also designed according to similar patterns.

What?


Google those of pioneers and Hitlerjugend.

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Short trousers and a shirt? Common "dressy" youth clothing at the time.

You're reeeeeeally pushing it now.

[Brenus]

Well, I have to admit that in both case trousers have 2 legs, and shirts two arms.
Then, of course, parades look really similar, as the one in USA, Vietnam, and all others countries having an army.

[Sarmatian]

Well, I have to admit that in both case trousers have 2 legs, and shirts two arms.
Then, of course, parades look really similar, as the one in USA, Vietnam, and all others countries having an army.

But you forgot one very important thing - Soviets drank water. Nazis also drank water...

[Brenus]

"Soviets drank water. Nazis also drank water." No no no no. That is, they eat the same food, which is as well very suspicious, I grant you. However it is another subject.
I heard for a very reliable social media (but now shut-down) that they use stoves, same kind of, and their flasks looks very similar. They also have chairs and tables, and most of their glasses are made of glass. Yes.

[Gilrandir]

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[Husar]

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[Viking]

https://i.imgur.com/1RMTcYM.jpg

[Greyblades]

17553
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[Greyblades]

https://i.imgur.com/1RMTcYM.jpg

http://img.izismile.com/img/img2/20090421/crazy_military_parades_02.jpg

[Sarmatian]

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[Strike For The South]

It's February 19 2016 and Putin is still a fascist.

I'm convinced 90% of you supporting Putin are bigots because of Russia's very well documented problems with Gays, Browns, and Muslims. Things which Putin us currently stoking.

This is easy, no wonder this is what people do.

[Fragony]

That is true but almost everythin east of Germany has these issues. I find Russia to be really calm, especially after a jet was shot down, never expected they would be. Turkey or rather Erdogan is a problem

[Brenus]

"I'm convinced 90% of you supporting Putin are bigots because of Russia's very well documented problems with Gays, Browns, and Muslims. Things which Putin us currently stoking" Yeap. Putin is in fact a good american Republican candidate for presidency...

[Gilrandir]

How's this one then:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qBimkM3Fb9I
It is the celebration of Putin's birthday in Chechnya.

There is no use denying the fact that totalitarian regimes built along the same lines expose striking similarities in many aspects, especially those pertaining to public ceremonies and other exhibitions of ideological tenets. And modern Russia is moving along the same lines with its 85% support of the leader.

The nazi roots of the song glorifying Putin (speaking of Hitlerjugend):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KVu-VRB0KuE

[Brenus]

And:
https://youtu.be/EqolSvoWNck
or
http://www.theguardian.com/uk/video/2013/jun/15/queen-birthday-trooping-colour-parade-video
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3154195/Huge-street-party-celebrate-Queen-s-90th-birthday-10-000-charity-workers-set-invited-hamper-lunch-Mall.html
if you prefer...
https://youtu.be/XdM84-3_esY

And your link with the song is a great moment... Where is Putin is this? 10 (!) seconds of a folkloric group compared with the German Army and SA... That is a monument you just show... The putinisation of Russia is very well en route...:laugh4:

[Gilrandir]

And your link with the song is a great moment... Where is Putin is this? 10 (!) seconds of a folkloric group compared with the German Army and SA... That is a monument you just show... The putinisation of Russia is very well en route...:laugh4:
I'm not sure what you are trying to say.

If you want the whole song about Putin:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ZfP9_ZAofrY
It was sung in September 2014 and it looks like a thanksgiving song for annexing (or reunifying as they call it) the Crimea.

If you want to know what is in the song:
It was a crucial moment, everybody ran to you and asked to save the Crimea from a bloodbath.
And you opened doors for mothers and children of the Russian Crimea. People are celebrating and saluting the wise decision of Putin.
The refrain: Go on with what you are doing, Putin, and you will outshine the movie heroes, you are the best President. You are Russia's strong argument.

Then the tune of the Russian anthem is intertwined into the song and the singers go: We are proud of our country. The curtain.

As for the comparison with the Hitlerjugend Lied, it is drawn in the music, not in the lyrics.

[Fragony]

I'd put the Russian anthem into anything it's simply epic. So is Hitman 2's main theme by the way

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fBXp0z4ETWI

[Brenus]

"Then the tune of the Russian anthem is intertwined into the song and the singers go: We are proud of our country. The curtain." And the Croats composed an hymn to Germany because Germany helped them during the War for their independence:
https://youtu.be/2ua1WB-fovQ
It is time for you to understand that every country have their lunatics writing for their President or the person they considered as helper/hero , and locals thanking someone for help during a struggle:
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Probably equivalent of the Hitlerjurgen, no?
https://youtu.be/2hpp0Zpk7iE

[Gilrandir]

It is time for you to understand that every country have their lunatics writing for their President or the person they considered as helper/hero , and locals thanking someone for help during a struggle:


I realize it more than you would believe, but what you are not aware of is the number of such lunatics in modern Russia. I gave only one example of such a song, but having access to Russian media I can see it recur now and again. And they glorify not only the deeds of Putin, but his character traits as well.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rnsimQHGWYg
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bCaakPaaQ5I
This tendency which now has stopped to be a province of singing lunatics only but has become a trend in fashion, sports and other spheres, clearly marks the type of society Russia is turning (if not has already turned) into. Even in the USSR I didn't see such open sycophancy. Well, it was there under Stalin or referred to Lenin, but after 1953 no songs were composed about the LIVING leaders, nor their portraits were printed on T-shirts or plates.

[Gilrandir]

It seems that those who initiated the referendum in the Netherlands embezzled some grants:
http://www.erasmusjournalisten.nl/index.php/2016/03/08/geenpeil-misbruikt-subsidieregeling-referendum/
It is in Dutch, I hope soon it will become available in English as well.

[Lizardo]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-turkish-frigates-in-ukraines-odessa-.aspx?pageID=517&nID=97307&NewsCatID=351

That's Ukraine's government are siding with the enemy of the world they should not be allowed into EU siding with ISIS supporters to spite Russia who.knows what's In Those ships

[Fragony]

It seems that those who initiated the referendum in the Netherlands embezzled some grants:
http://www.erasmusjournalisten.nl/index.php/2016/03/08/geenpeil-misbruikt-subsidieregeling-referendum/
It is in Dutch, I hope soon it will become available in English as well.

It's not true what is said there, Geenpijl declined the money themselves, but they did help others get it, no matter if they are pro, against, or neutral

[Gilrandir]

http://www.hurriyetdailynews.com/two-turkish-frigates-in-ukraines-odessa-.aspx?pageID=517&nID=97307&NewsCatID=351

That's Ukraine's government are siding with the enemy of the world they should not be allowed into EU siding with ISIS supporters to spite Russia who.knows what's In Those ships

:dizzy2: So Turkey is the enemy of the world? Breaking news: a NATO member is the enemy of the world which supports ISIS!!! Two Turkish battleships are to take Ukrainian arms and nazis to transport them to ISIS!!!

And someone snapped his fingers at the power Russian propaganda wields.


It's not true what is said there, Geenpijl declined the money themselves, but they did help others get it, no matter if they are pro, against, or neutral

I expect you can provide facts which prove what you said.

[Fragony]

Yes but it's in Dutch, it's all 100% clean, minister of national-affairs (who isn't exactly Geenpeil's greatest fan) publically stated that all accusations are baseless. All camps got the same amount, 50.000, totalling 150.000. Geenpeil itself refused to take any money whatsoever(they had the right on it but kindly didn't oblige) , they work strictly with volunteers and crowdfunds.

[Snowhobbit]

:dizzy2: So Turkey is the enemy of the world? Breaking news: a NATO member is the enemy of the world which supports ISIS!!! Two Turkish battleships are to take Ukrainian arms and nazis to transport them to ISIS!!!

And someone snapped his fingers at the power Russian propaganda wields.



I expect you can provide facts which prove what you said.

Lizardo wants to bring the lizardpeople into power by killing all humans using chemical weapons. That is why he is so upset about the boats that took part in the destruction of Syrian chemical weapons.

[Lizardo]

Snowhobbit cant accept facts that don't allign with his world view you're in denial the amount of Military aged muslim males has drastically changed the countries demographics plus they say they are under 18 to get more benifits you're country doesnt even age test them. And the other foolish fool Gilrandir have you made a desperate appeal yet to the dutch like in these videos. How much compensation did you get from George Soros for this.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR7cBMdURB8

[Lizardo]

No:wall: No Pain No Ukraine hey Ukraine has gone to shit!


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g_iylTykr6E


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7o08mz0WfAE

https://www.rt.com/news/337010-ukraine-fake-jets-croatia/

[Fragony]

Just voted, was rather busy which is good

[rory_20_uk]

It is a shame the Democratic deficit in Europe is so great that we are all forced to use whatever vote we are given to make a "statement" on something else that no vote was allowed - since people would likely vote the "wrong" way.

~:smoking:

[Gilrandir]

And the other foolish fool Gilrandir have you made a desperate appeal yet to the dutch like in these videos. How much compensation did you get from George Soros for this.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=CR7cBMdURB8


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g_iylTykr6E


https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=7o08mz0WfAE

https://www.rt.com/news/337010-ukraine-fake-jets-croatia/
[/QUOTE]
You should really get your wits together. They seem to be blown away with each new video you encounter in the Internet.

The first video you linked is by Russian television. Do I have to tell you what is Russia's take on everything connected with Ukraine? So referring to a Russian media for a reliable information and sober opinion about Ukraine (and not only) is ridiculous.

The second video: I don't support violence in the case when a group of aged people is gathered to say something. But there are some considerations which you may fail to know.

First of all, how do you know those youths are nazis (and they speak Russian by the way)?

Second of all, do you think they are attacking random senior protesters? The protesters display the flags of the communist party banned in Ukraine. So their meeting is a violation of law.

Third of all, if it were a serious attack, the pensioners would end up in hospital. What I saw in the video is pushing (on both sides, btw), some gas spraying and flag taking. If those youths meant business, believe me, the outcome would have been quite different.

Fourth of all, there is some ground for the youths (and others) to react like that (in this case it is overreaction), and it also concerns the third video: it is with such meetings (and zero reaction to them) that the occupation of Crimea and Donbas started. So people have become keenly (even painfully) conscious of anything that may further lead to the Donbas scenario. The same with the soda label: Coca-cola no more recognized Crimea as a part of Ukraine. Such flagrant statement in a war-ridden country is a sure way to provoke the reaction we saw in the video.

Generally, this is the last time I bother to comment on any videos about Ukraine you may find in the Net. I'm sure there are heaps of them, and many are rather unpleasant or shocking. But I believe if one sets his mind on digging out some dirt about any country he will succeed in it. But what he will prove? That shit happens everywhere? This is a conclusion that could be reached without bothering to find a proof.

Somehow you need a master Jedi to teach you how to use the force. Sarmatian, there is a new padawan who needs apprenticeship.

[Fragony]

Results (association treaty) are in, more than 30% voted (is the minimum), 64% voted against. About the same as with the EU constitution. Same thing will also happen of course, they call the almost exact same thing something else and do it anyway.

It's a good day though. Going to be interesting.

handy map https://www.facebook.com/euroreferendumnederland/photos/a.871006396286778.1073741828.870879566299461/1014069261980490/?type=3&theater This can't be just gnored

[Brenus]

"The protesters display the flags of the communist party banned in Ukraine. So their meeting is a violation of law." Hold on... I swear you told me that it was not true that the Communist Party was ban by law in Ukraine? So, to clarify, is the Communist Party banned in Ukraine or not?

[Gilrandir]

"The protesters display the flags of the communist party banned in Ukraine. So their meeting is a violation of law." Hold on... I swear you told me that it was not true that the Communist Party was ban by law in Ukraine? So, to clarify, is the Communist Party banned in Ukraine or not?

When we discussed it the trial was still in progress. Now it is official.

[Gilrandir]

Results (association treaty) are in, more than 30% voted (is the minimum), 64% voted against. About the same as with the EU constitution. Same thing will also happen of course, they call the almost exact same thing something else and do it anyway.

It's a good day though. Going to be interesting.

handy map https://www.facebook.com/euroreferendumnederland/photos/a.871006396286778.1073741828.870879566299461/1014069261980490/?type=3&theater This can't be just gnored

The map says 61% against. Which is the correct number?

[Fragony]

The map says 61% against. Which is the correct number?

61.1 against
38.1 in favour
the rest blank
33.2 attendance

Those are the final numbers

edit, there is still a margin for error, my bad

[Gilrandir]

61.1 against
38.1 in favour
the rest blank
33.2 attendance

Those are the final numbers

edit, there is still a margin for error, my bad

So it's like 20% of all Dutch are against AA? Can we say that 20% decide what is right for all the country?

And if it is ≈60 vs 40, can we say that the Dutch are a deeply divided nation?

[Fragony]

So it's like 20% of all Dutch are against AA? Can we say that 20% decide what is right for all the country?

And if it is ≈60 vs 40, can we say that the Dutch are a deeply divided nation?

Matter of how people look at things, some think we give a mandate for 4 years, some think we should have a more direct say in things, and most in general dispise the EU. Critics of the referendum probably rightfully claim that it's more about the EU just doing as it pleases than it is about Ukraine, I would never dare saying that isn't a huge motivation for some, myself partially included, I kinda enjoy giving the EU and our government the finger I won't deny that. But there are very good reasons to be against this treaty regardless.

[Snowhobbit]

61.1 against
38.1 in favour
the rest blank
33.2 attendance

Those are the final numbers

edit, there is still a margin for error, my bad

Would the low attendance in some way give wiggleroom for the Dutch government to weasel out of what the referendum gave as a strong result? Given that as Gilrandir posted, in total only about 20% voted against it out of the eligible population.

[Fragony]

Would the low attendance in some way give wiggleroom for the Dutch government to weasel out of what the referendum gave as a strong result? Given that as Gilrandir posted, in total only about 20% voted against it out of the eligible population.

They can do that even if 100% showed up and voted no. We have seen that before with the EU-consitution referendum which we also said no to, took out the EU-athem and called it the Lissabon-treaty, and pushed it through despite the French and the Dutch rejecting it. Something similar is going to happen now, something that's irrelevant is taken out, treaty gets a new name, that's how the EU rolls. It's more of a problem for our national government who ars at an all-time low. We have put them in a very uncomfortable position with a no in a (enforced) referendum, the Dutch no will have no consequences for Ukraine whatsoever,everything has already been sneaked in a few months ago, few no-voter are as stupid as to think something substantial was ackomplished. See it as a bitchslap

Thing is, what was done now can be done again, with more resolve because we are going to be played again, and we will continue to it untill every old-boy's network here is insignificant.

[Snowhobbit]

They can do that even if 100% showed up and voted no. We have seen that before with the EU-consitution referendum which we also said no to, took out the EU-athem and called it the Lissabon-treaty, and pushed it through despite the French and the Dutch rejecting it. Something similar is going to happen now, something that's irrelevant is taken out, treaty gets a new name, that's how the EU rolls. It's more of a problem for our national government who ars at an all-time low. We have put them in a very uncomfortable position with a no in a (enforced) referendum, the Dutch no will have no consequences for Ukraine whatsoever,everything has already been sneaked in a few months ago.

So this whole thing was essentially meaningless then? I would say with only 20% of the population being so strongly against it that they go all the way to a voting booth, it won't be too much of a political issue for the government.

[Lizardo]

No, Snowhobbit the way polls usually work is that if you poll say 20 percent of the population and 80 percent vote no the results are upscaled as more or less representative of the general populous,
thats the method for TV ratings as they select a few households to have a device which notes what channel and program you are watching, most people dont vote in general elections anyway. So you can take what you want out of it.

[Fragony]

So this whole thing was essentially meaningless then? I would say with only 20% of the population being so strongly against it that they go all the way to a voting booth, it won't be too much of a political issue for the government.

Yep it was always meaningless, it's not binding. I am against that treaty and voted no but I already knew it has always been futile. But the government will have to thread a bit more kindly now that they know what a simple weblog can ackomplish; it takes 300.000 signatures to enforce a referendum, they had almost half million in a week. The reverendum itself needs 30% of the voting population before it has to be even considered, and that succeeded as well. Even then it can just be ignored. But we can do it again and again and again. Top-tier trolling really.

In the foreign media you keep seeing Wilders, but he had nothing to do with this masterclass, weblog geenstijl.nl is behind it.

[Gilrandir]

No, Snowhobbit the way polls usually work is that if you poll say 20 percent of the population and 80 percent vote no the results are upscaled as more or less representative of the general populous,
thats the method for TV ratings as they select a few households to have a device which notes what channel and program you are watching, most people dont vote in general elections anyway. So you can take what you want out of it.
This was no polling in the meaning that you have to ask a small number of people to get the general picture more or less correctly. This was voting which doesn't work this way.


it takes 300.000 signatures to enforce a referendum, they had almost half million in a week. The reverendum itself needs 30% of the voting population before it has to be even considered, and that succeeded as well. Even then it can just be ignored. But we can do it again and again and again.


Then get a referendum on the EU membership (as the British) and have done with it once and for all.

[Snowhobbit]

No, Snowhobbit the way polls usually work is that if you poll say 20 percent of the population and 80 percent vote no the results are upscaled as more or less representative of the general populous,
thats the method for TV ratings as they select a few households to have a device which notes what channel and program you are watching, most people dont vote in general elections anyway. So you can take what you want out of it.

[snip]
Polls are polls and elections are elections.
61.1=/=80

[Snowhobbit]

Yep it was always meaningless, it's not binding. I am against that treaty and voted no but I already knew it has always been futile. But the government will have to thread a bit more kindly now that they know what a simple weblog can ackomplish; it takes 300.000 signatures to enforce a referendum, they had almost half million in a week. The reverendum itself needs 30% of the voting population before it has to be even considered, and that succeeded as well. Even then it can just be ignored. But we can do it again and again and again. Top-tier trolling really.

In the foreign media you keep seeing Wilders, but he had nothing to do with this masterclass, weblog geenstijl.nl is behind it.

To be honest this isn't getting covered very much in our press, we have plenty of our own stupid stuff to deal with at the moment.

Here if a referendum gives a negative result it is binding for parliament, presuming that it is a referendum about changing the constitution. Otherwise they are simply advisory and as such serve little function.

[Fragony]

Then get a referendum on the EU membership (as the British) and have done with it once and for all.

We can't do that sadly, changing consitution ain't that easy. But it have been some good times to see eurocrats panicking 'THE ONLY ALTERNATIVE FOR THE EU IS WAR', 'IT WILL CAUSE AN CONTINENTAL CRISIS', quality media and state media abroad going nuts, EVERYBODY here knows that that referendum was never binding. You lot have fallen for the best organised prank ever. There are really serious objections our beloved parlement will have to answer for to be taken even remotily seriously. good luck fooing us again. But all in all you all have been reeled in like a big fat fish.

gg

edit, the EC does exactly what we hoped they would do, give us the finger and say they are going to do it anyway. Brits are you listening? You know what to do

[Gilrandir]

Putin created a new law enforcement body:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/7/l-todd-wood-putin-follows-an-old-playbook-with-new/

[Fragony]

Putin created a new law enforcement body:

http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2016/apr/7/l-todd-wood-putin-follows-an-old-playbook-with-new/

I don't see anything particulary troublesome at first glance, only a lot of see? See? SEE?

[Brenus]

"Perhaps Mr. Putin sees oil staying in the $30-$40 range for the foreseeable future and understands what havoc this will bring for the economy and the government’s coffers. Perhaps Moscow is seeing the seeds of a new round of social unrest forming in the opposition. Perhaps Mr. Putin and his aides fear that punishing Western sanctions will remain in place for the foreseeable future and that the campaign to weaken European and American resolve has failed. Perhaps the czar is planning new international intrigues." Lots of perhaps.

[Fragony]

"Perhaps Mr. Putin sees oil staying in the $30-$40 range for the foreseeable future and understands what havoc this will bring for the economy and the government’s coffers. Perhaps Moscow is seeing the seeds of a new round of social unrest forming in the opposition. Perhaps Mr. Putin and his aides fear that punishing Western sanctions will remain in place for the foreseeable future and that the campaign to weaken European and American resolve has failed. Perhaps the czar is planning new international intrigues." Lots of perhaps.

Lots of insinuation, I know it's just an opinion-article but the wording is off, I expected better from something as respectable as the Wasshington-Post. Why is the comparison to a madmen who lived centuries ago in any way comparable to Russia today?
This is framing of the worst kind, and it isn't very classy. I don't like Poetin but I do like honesty.

Czar, seriously wtf. It's ok if I call that total freak Erdogan a sultan but I don't write it in a very influentual newspaper

[Gilrandir]

Lots of insinuation,

It is true. But it is also true that Russia has a most developed system of law enforcement bodies, and here comes a new one which is directly under Putin's command. It raises questions like "What is the need for a new one? Is it an admission that the old ones are inadequate? Or are the responsibilities of the newly created National Guard would be different from those proclaimed?" The author of the article offers his answers to such questions.

[Fragony]

It is true. But it is also true that Russia has a most developed system of law enforcement bodies, and here comes a new one which is directly under Putin's command. It raises questions like "What is the need for a new one? Is it an admission that the old ones are inadequate? Or are the responsibilities of the newly created National Guard would be different from those proclaimed?" The author of the article offers his answers to such questions.

I understand your considerations, but we have a national police who answers to the minister of justice here as well. That it COULD go wrong doesn't mean it will. The writer of the article is really of by comparing it with a really outdated concept of a czar being in Russia. By law an officer has to wear a sabre in Brittain by law for example. Also here there are many laws that are just ignored. The lines just disconnect in that article

[Gilrandir]

I understand your considerations, but we have a national police who answers to the minister of justice here as well.


But not directly to the head of the state. And Russia has a special assignment force - OMON, so there is no apparent need to create a new body and make it answerable to the president directly.

[Fragony]

But not directly to the head of the state. And Russia has a special assignment force - OMON, so there is no apparent need to create a new body and make it answerable to the president directly.

I understand the slippery slope but there are too many right here to be really worried about Russia. If we are honest we would admit that we (the west) are the agressors here. Russia is slowly but steadily being surrounded, why would we do that to them? We are begging for agression and it does not have to be like that

Never never never hurt anything that doesn't hurt you

[Fragony]

What I said earlier might just might not be true, it can be binding it seems with some lawfull wizardry. I am not very sure what I voted against at the moment. My sincere apoligies to Ukrainens for taking it as a prank if it actually has consequenses, and that I was part of using you as a ball in a football-game

[Gilrandir]

I am not very sure what I voted against at the moment.

This is the major problem.



My sincere apoligies to Ukrainens for taking it as a prank if it actually has consequenses, and that I was part of using you as a ball in a football-game

Never mind. You can bask in congratulations from very worthy persons:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-04-06/dutch-reject-eu-ukraine-pact-though-vote-may-be-invalid




Geert Wilders, the leader of the Dutch anti-EU, anti-Islam Freedom Party, hailed the result as “fantastic,” and Le Pen congratulated him on Twitter, saying it was another “step away” from the EU. Medvedev said the rejection was an “indication of Europeans’ attitude to the Ukrainian political system," in a post on Twitter.

[Fragony]

Geert Wilders had nothing to to with all this, it's the rather influential weblog Geenstijl.nl who is behind it, they are friends nor enemies, they don't work for anyone they are completily independent.

To be honest, I voted no to give the EU the finger, but I never wanted to screw the Ukraine

[Lizardo]

The vote did jack shit, it doesnt change a thing the deal with ukraine is still going through one way or another

[Fragony]

The vote did jack shit, it doesnt change a thing the deal with ukraine is still going through one way or another

Of course it will, the EU does as it pleases. I got out of it what I wanted, but it doesn't feell quite right that we used the Ukraine for it, even if there are very good reasons to vote against the treaty. I now think it would have been better not to have done this and let the eurosceptic parties naturally grow. We have the time, the EU will fall eventually we just need patience.

[Gilrandir]

It is true. But it is also true that Russia has a most developed system of law enforcement bodies, and here comes a new one which is directly under Putin's command. It raises questions like "What is the need for a new one? Is it an admission that the old ones are inadequate? Or are the responsibilities of the newly created National Guard would be different from those proclaimed?" The author of the article offers his answers to such questions.

Another article on the problem:
http://www.jamestown.org/single/?tx_ttnews%5Btt_news%5D=45301&no_cache=1#.Vw5a5_mLRMx

[Gilrandir]

How Russia exercises control over DPR and LNR:
http://www.unian.info/politics/1304103-putins-shadow-government-for-donbas-exposed-bild-exclusive.html

[Lizardo]

This video explains the formation of ruaaiaa national guard https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=C3oXsVJnzik

[Gilrandir]

What was/is going on in Ukraine is civil war, is it?
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2015/feb/17/russia-shelled-ukrainians-from-within-its-own-territory-says-study

[Sarmatian]

Now a group of British investigative journalists using digital detection techniques, satellite imagery and social media has provided near conclusive proof that the shelling came from across the border in Russia.

In other news, digital detection techniques, satellite imagery and social media has provided near conclusive proof that cats are, indeed, the most elegant life form on Earth.

[Gilrandir]

In other news, digital detection techniques, satellite imagery and social media has provided near conclusive proof that cats are, indeed, the most elegant life form on Earth.

In Ukraine it is a matter of common knowlegde referred to by numerous witnesses, including videos shot by Russians in Gukovo. Now the West (albeit in a very hesitant manner) is owing up to it as well.

If you choose to still believe what Putin says, well, carry on.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

What was/is going on in Ukraine is civil war, is it?
Civil wars aren't.

[Greyblades]

Civil wars aren't.

Strange, a few years ago I found such statements endearing and witty, now I find my eyes reflexively rolling.

[Strike For The South]

drink more

[Gilrandir]

Mejlis is banned in Crimea:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/04/27/world/europe/crimea-tatar-mejlis-ban-russia.html?_r=0

And France makes a move to lift anti-Russian sanctions:
https://www.rt.com/news/341216-france-drop-sanctions-russia/

[Gilrandir]

Brothers in sanctions:
http://tass.ru/en/economy/873530

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Brothers in sanctions:
http://tass.ru/en/economy/873530

Well, you are judged by the company you keep - and Russia is really scraping the barrel if its cozying up to the African basket case that used to be a bread basket.

[Gilrandir]

"The USSR official outfit and traditions are very often strikingly similar to those of nazi Germany":laugh4::laugh4::laugh4:

A follow up on the topic - posters of two countries in question:
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[Crandar]

Flashing news!

Uniforms and propaganda posters from the same time look similar! Soviet (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/0c/KIM-10-50_sedan1940.jpg/800px-KIM-10-50_sedan1940.jpg) and German (https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/5/54/Opel_Olympia_30er_vorne-links.jpg/800px-Opel_Olympia_30er_vorne-links.jpg) cars, too! Even, the tooth (https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/15/71/58/157158757f9100637ecf856de379773c.jpg)pastes (http://c8.alamy.com/comp/C6AXHJ/german-toothpaste-advertisement-found-in-nazi-germany-wartime-magazine-C6AXHJ.jpg)! Just look at these suspicious little devilish cylinders!

Not to mention that both their leaders had a mustache. Coincidence? I think not.

[Brenus]

"A follow up on the topic":laugh4::laugh4::laugh4:
18147 18148 18149 18150 18151 18152
18153 18154

one of my favourite:
18156

I have others but I won't bother to put in parallel...:laugh4:

[Gilrandir]

I have others but I won't bother to put in parallel...:laugh4:

:laugh4: It is the parallel that matters. The messages of the posters are indeed universal, but I was pointing to the DESIGN similarities (including Stalin giving a nazi salute) which testifies to the readiness of the two regimes to draw upon each other's experience and techniques.

[Husar]

:laugh4: It is the parallel that matters. The messages of the posters are indeed universal, but I was pointing to the DESIGN similarities (including Stalin giving a nazi salute) which testifies to the readiness of the two regimes to draw upon each other's experience and techniques.

You're making a good case for immigration, because it clearly shows that, in the end, we humans are all the same.

[Brenus]

"It is the parallel that matters. " :laugh4: You means that all propaganda or representation will show the same things!!!!
"(including Stalin giving a nazi salute)" :laugh4::laugh4::laugh4: more, more, this is making my day...

USSR Flag on Nazi Berlin
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[Gilrandir]

USSR Flag on Nazi Berlin
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I don't know what do you want to prove by publishing a photo which hung in my school, and the size of it was a man's height. Wake up and consult a calendar, it is not 1945 any more and the great-grandchildren of those who erected the flag march through Moscow and other Russian cities:
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/neo-nazis-on-the-march-in-moscow-we-russians-are-part-of-the-white-race-a-515380.html
http://imagine2050.newcomm.org/2013/11/22/thousands-of-russian-neo-nazis-nationalists-march-in-moscow/

[Brenus]

" Wake up and consult a calendar, it is not 1945 " :laugh4: You started with your stupid collage for before 1945, trying to equal Communism and Nazism. I was trying to help you in showing a USSR banner in Berlin, but I can see the irony didn't escape you... I am actually sarcastic... I prefer to say it as some tend to read things I didn't wrote, one can't be safe enough...

And I am impressed, really. 10.000 gathered on a population of what? 146 millions? that is an impressive movement. Well they still have to make an effort to match the Ukrainian Nazi, first they have to get power...
https://ukraineantifascistsolidarity.wordpress.com/2015/10/13/who-is-andriy-parubiy-protest-uk-visit-of-ukrainian-politician-with-far-right-links/

[Gilrandir]

" Wake up and consult a calendar, it is not 1945 " :laugh4: You started with your stupid collage for before 1945, trying to equal Communism and Nazism. I was trying to help you in showing a USSR banner in Berlin, but I can see the irony didn't escape you...


I'll go with some more pictures:

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Communists and nazis hobnobbing after dividing Poland.



And I am impressed, really. 10.000 gathered on a population of what? 146 millions? that is an impressive movement. Well they still have to make an effort to match the Ukrainian Nazi, first they have to get power...
https://ukraineantifascistsolidarity.wordpress.com/2015/10/13/who-is-andriy-parubiy-protest-uk-visit-of-ukrainian-politician-with-far-right-links/

So nazis impress you only if they are more than 10 000? No bad feelings about 9 999 nazis chanting "Russia for Russians only"? Still obstinately convinced that Ukraine is the sole habitat of nazis? Way to go!

As for Parubiy, he has a nazi past. And? If he turned over a new leaf and keeps it turned - isn't it rather commendable than contemptible? It would be worse if it were the other way around.

[Crandar]

What exactly are you trying to achieve, Girlandir? To imply that the USSR=Nazi Germany, because of Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact and similarities between propaganda posters?

Trust me, you aren't going to convince anyone that hasn't subscribed to Breitbart and is more mentally developed than a 5-year old.
To give you an example, would you believe that France and the UK are the same as Nazi Germany, if I posted that?
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/9c/Bundesarchiv_Bild_183-R69173%2C_M%C3%BCnchener_Abkommen%2C_Staatschefs.jpg

Or that capitalism=Nazism, because capitalist Finland or Hungary were allied with the Germans?
http://cdn.timesofisrael.com/uploads/2013/11/hungaryhitler-e1383518082575.jpg
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/3/32/Hitler_Mannerheim_Ryti.jpg

Or that the Ukrainians are worse than the Nazis?

WARNING: Shocking content.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/15/Lviv_pogrom_%28June_-_July_1941%29.jpg
http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2015/08/21/09/2B8813F500000578-3205754-image-a-65_1440145467969.jpg

Man, that was pretty nasty, even the SS blushed in embarrassment. Still, not going to convince you, just like you aren't going to convince us, so please, don't waste your and our precious time, spamming irrelevant pictures.

[Gilrandir]

What exactly are you trying to achieve, Girlandir? To imply that the USSR=Nazi Germany, because of Ribbentrop-Molotov Pact and similarities between propaganda posters?

Trust me, you aren't going to convince anyone that hasn't subscribed to Breitbart and is more mentally developed than a 5-year old.


I have no idea what Girlandir is trying to achieve. When I meet her I'll ask.

As for my point, I made it clear quite a long time ago:

1. Similarities between the Nazi and Soviet regimes are much deeper than the outward manifestations of them. Both resulted in millions of victims, only the reasons for killing people were different.

2. WWII is far from evil (aka as Gemany) vs good (Western allies and the USSR) fight. There were other sides to the conflict which supported neither or fought against both.

3. It is useless to claim that some nations were more guilty of collaborating with nazis. At some period of time eventually EVERYBODY who later emerged as the good collaborated with those who eventually emerged as the evil. And vice versa, those who initially supported Gemany changed their mind and fought the evil as well.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prague_uprising#The_ROA_defection:

During the march south, the 1st Infantry Division (600th German Infantry Division) of the Russian Liberation Army (ROA) commanded by General Sergei Bunyachenko came to the help of the Czech insurgents to support the Prague uprising which started on May 5, 1945, against the German occupation. The ROA was created by former Soviet General Andrey Vlasov as an anti-communist Russian force in the combat against Bolshevism. Vlasov was initially reluctant, but ultimately did not resist General Bunyachenko's decision to fight against the Germans. The first division engaged in battle with Waffen-SS units that had been sent to level the city. The ROA units armed with heavy weaponry fended off the relentless SS assault, and together with the Czech insurgents succeeded in preserving most of Prague from destruction. Due to the predominance of Communists in the new Czech Rada, the first division had to leave the city the very next day and tried to surrender to the US Third Army of General Patton. The Allies, however, had little interest in aiding or sheltering the ROA, fearing such aid would severely harm relations with the Soviet Union. Soon after the failed attempt to surrender to the Americans, Bunyachenko, Vlasov, and the ROA forces in general were returned to the Soviet Union, after which they were mostly executed as traitors.

[Brenus]

"Communists and nazis hobnobbing after dividing Poland." So was the capitalist Poland in sharing Czechoslovakia...

"As for Parubiy, he has a nazi past. And? If he turned over a new leaf and keeps it turned - isn't it rather commendable than contemptible? It would be worse if it were the other way around": I don't know why you carrying on to do this, then claiming you NEVER say bla bla bla, honestly... Where is the turn? Where this guy changed in mind, when?

[Gilrandir]

"Communists and nazis hobnobbing after dividing Poland." So was the capitalist Poland in sharing Czechoslovakia...


One more proof that there was no "good side" in the war. At some peroid of time EVERY COUNTRY/SIDE INVOLVED did something which doesn't reflect a great credit upon it.



"As for Parubiy, he has a nazi past. And? If he turned over a new leaf and keeps it turned - isn't it rather commendable than contemptible? It would be worse if it were the other way around": I don't know why you carrying on to do this, then claiming you NEVER say bla bla bla, honestly... Where is the turn? Where this guy changed in mind, when?

Have you ever heard of assumption of innocence? Anyone is innocent until he is proven guilty. Do you have any proofs that since Parubiy became a civil servant he has said or done something that may be qualified as nazi propaganda/support or he was still a member of the party you meantioned? If you do, out with them. If you don't, my claim holds.

[Crandar]

1. Similarities between the Nazi and Soviet regimes are much deeper than the outward manifestations of them. Both resulted in millions of victims, only the reasons for killing people were different.

2. WWII is far from evil (aka as Gemany) vs good (Western allies and the USSR) fight. There were other sides to the conflict which supported neither or fought against both.
For the last time, Gilrandir. I accept that the Ukrainians are mad at the Reds and the Russians for stopping them more than once from exercising their favorite national sport, Jews-hunting. Yes, we all mourn about innocent, little Peltura and his gang of pure, Cossack-descended Ukrainian peasants, but what is done is done.
Sincerely speaking, vandalizing a statue of Lenin or a Red Army monument is a better way to honor his memory than comparing Soviet posters, coats and toothpastes with German ones, in front of what I'd describe as well-educated and critically thinking audience.

One more proof that there was no "good side" in the war. At some peroid of time EVERY COUNTRY/SIDE INVOLVED did something which doesn't reflect a great credit upon it.
The problem is that the bad stuff done by the one side is much, much, much more despicable and lethal than the bombing of Dresden and the rape of some German ladies in East Germany.
I get it, the collaborators and their national descendants are trying hard to distort what commense sense makes obvious to anyone with more than two brain cells, in a futile attempt to justify the lynching of Jews and the burning to the ground of Polish villages.

However, our education system hasn't collapsed entirely yet, so the majority isn't going to buy it. No need to waste our precious time discussing these matter, right?

[Lizardo]

I think Bolshevism and Communism was a foreign invasion it killed more ethnic russians and ukrainians than hitler did. And it was, agents on the bankroll of goldman sachs etc. overthrew the tsar, marx was a psychopathic foreigner so was lenin when the frankfurt school fled germany they were set up by wealthy individuals of what religion we cant name and set up in america subverting the populace today which is climaxed to the political situation in America today. I actually thank the National Socialists without them communism would be all over europe. WW2 was about Nationalism (Axis) vs Globalism (Allies) and globalism is winning today.

[Gilrandir]

For the last time, Gilrandir. I accept that the Ukrainians are mad at the Reds and the Russians for stopping them more than once from exercising their favorite national sport, Jews-hunting.

You are right. Ukrainians were so good at hunting Jews that now we have the Jewish prime minister who stepped down (or up?) from being the Head of the Parliament, and the President with Jewish roots. A very anti-semitic country Ukraine is.



Sincerely speaking, vandalizing a statue of Lenin or a Red Army monument is a better way to honor his memory than comparing Soviet posters, coats and toothpastes with German ones, in front of what I'd describe as well-educated and critically thinking audience.


Sure, Communists were angels embodied:

http://www.nytimes.com/1989/03/06/world/behind-stalin-s-green-fence-who-filled-the-mass-graves.html
https://communismblog.wordpress.com/2015/01/31/communist-crimes-bykivnia-graves-kiev-ukraine/

Not at all like nazis.



The problem is that the bad stuff done by the one side is much, much, much more despicable and lethal than the bombing of Dresden and the rape of some German ladies in East Germany.


So killing people in Buchenwald is despicable, while bombing Dresden or Hiroshima is not? I see. The despicality is meted out depending on the doer of a murder. As well as raping.



I get it, the collaborators and their national descendants are trying hard to distort what commense sense makes obvious to anyone with more than two brain cells, in a futile attempt to justify the lynching of Jews and the burning to the ground of Polish villages.


For the last time, I didn't justify any crime. For the last time, the category of collaborators includes practically all Europeans nations and their leaders.



However, our education system hasn't collapsed entirely yet, so the majority isn't going to buy it.


The education system in the USSR (that taught me and is still considered to be one of the best in the world) claimed that Prague was liberated by Konev's army who, having recieved a pleading of the insurgent Czechs, made a battle march and in a couple of days reached the city and delivered it from the nazis. And now I discovered that it was the collaborators who evicted nazis from Prague. WTF? Conclusion: education (especially teaching history) is very often grounded on myths, slantings and exaggerations.



No need to waste our precious time discussing these matter, right?
Then don't waste it, live the myths and half-truths.

[Gilrandir]

This one explains how Russian media exercise hold of the minds of Russians (and Ukrainians who harken to them). People who watch suchlike footages every day can be easily persuaded in any imagined dangers besetting Russia. I realize that this is in French, yet I know that some people here understand it.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=4ghJuKREBbI

And Obama draws upon Hitler for quotes, says THE HEAD OF THE CONSTITUTIONAL COURT OF RUSSIA:
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/head-of-russian-constitutional-court-obamas-speeches-similar-to-hitlers/569896.html

[Brenus]

Hmm, no. That is the danger of using Foreign language sources with a pre-set opinion.
The show is about how the Russian TV used images of the protests against the "new" (XIX Century based ideology) employment laws to illustrate the increasing level of Euroscepticism in France.
The fact that the anchorman himself use this kind of methods showing the picture of Putin when speaking of the head of this Russian TV is part of it.
A bit like when some channels used pictures Russian tanks out of context to illustrate the gathering of thousands of soldiers and tanks ready to march to Berlin few years ago...
For reference, le "Petit Journal" is labelled as "entertainment" in France, satire version of news, so is not supposed to be impartial and completely fair.
What make me laugh is what is the difference with other News channels any way?

[Gilrandir]

Hmm, no. That is the danger of using Foreign language sources with a pre-set opinion.
The show is about how the Russian TV used images of the protests against the "new" (XIX Century based ideology) employment laws to illustrate the increasing level of Euroscepticism in France.
The fact that the anchorman himself use this kind of methods showing the picture of Putin when speaking of the head of this Russian TV is part of it.
A bit like when some channels used pictures Russian tanks out of context to illustrate the gathering of thousands of soldiers and tanks ready to march to Berlin few years ago...
For reference, le "Petit Journal" is labelled as "entertainment" in France, satire version of news, so is not supposed to be impartial and completely fair.
What make me laugh is what is the difference with other News channels any way?

It doesn't matter what stance is adopted by the TV show crew. This episode's aim was to expose to the western public THE WAY Russian TV creates the reality Putin wants it to. Many Europeans are still not aware how intense and aggressive is the brainwashing practised by Russian TV. I remember Soviet TV programs, but I can assure you they fall utterly short of what Russian television is doing. Soviets TOOK a REAL EVENT and gave it a neccessary INTERPETATION. Modern Russian TV INVENTS events.

[Husar]

It doesn't matter what stance is adopted by the TV show crew. This episode's aim was to expose to the western public THE WAY Russian TV creates the reality Putin wants it to. Many Europeans are still not aware how intense and aggressive is the brainwashing practised by Russian TV. I remember Soviet TV programs, but I can assure you they fall utterly short of what Russian television is doing. Soviets TOOK a REAL EVENT and gave it a neccessary INTERPETATION. Modern Russian TV INVENTS events.

Would you say the Kardashians or news that are 80% about famous people gossip and shopping tips are more educational politically?

How would you even know that people want to know the truth? Maybe the media in Russia just gives people what they want in their echo chamber just like a lot of political bloggers.

[Gilrandir]

Would you say the Kardashians or news that are 80% about famous people gossip and shopping tips are more educational politically?

They don't pretend to tell the truth of a war.



How would you even know that people want to know the truth? Maybe the media in Russia just gives people what they want in their echo chamber just like a lot of political bloggers.
They do the latter but disguise it as the truth.

[Brenus]

"This episode's aim was to expose to the western public THE WAY Russian TV creates the reality Putin wants it to." Yes, you are probably right. But what is the difference with Western Media?

[Gilrandir]

"This episode's aim was to expose to the western public THE WAY Russian TV creates the reality Putin wants it to." Yes, you are probably right. But what is the difference with Western Media?

You know better than me that there are Western media and Western media. Some of them report on the news others add some subtle flavor (aka bias) into reporting.

Russian media are either too spicy with such flavors or (which happens as often as not) they report on the things that never happened INVENTING events which suit their agenda.

[Husar]

You know better than me that there are Western media and Western media. Some of them report on the news others add some subtle flavor (aka bias) into reporting.

Russian media are either too spicy with such flavors or (which happens as often as not) they report on the things that never happened INVENTING events which suit their agenda.

Indeed, the only unbiased journalism can be seen here:


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nEDTOAuizxE

See how polite they are?

[Gilrandir]

A survey:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2016/05/30/surveys-show-russian-nationalism-is-on-the-rise-this-explains-a-lot-about-the-countrys-foreign-and-domestic-politics/

And a crackdown on Internet users in Russia:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/dozens-in-russia-imprisoned-for-social-media-likes-reposts/2016/05/31/6114fd56-273b-11e6-8329-6104954928d2_story.html?tid=hybrid_collaborative_1_na

[Brenus]

"Russian media are either too spicy with such flavors or (which happens as often as not) they report on the things that never happened INVENTING events which suit their agenda." Unfortunately so the Western Media:
Timisoara:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1990-03-13/news/9001210292_1_grave-nicolae-ceausescu-bodies

And I am too tired (coming back from work) but you can research on how media made Saddam Hussein building a Maginot Line in the desert, the babies taking from the incubators in Kuweit, (https://youtu.be/LmfVs3WaE9Y) the Weapons of Mass Destruction, of course, and I can carry on with the NATO attack on what was Yugoslavia...

In fact, following your advice, I went to watch RT, then I stopped. They are actually the same than Western Media....

[Gilrandir]

Unfortunately so the Western Media:
Timisoara:
http://articles.chicagotribune.com/1990-03-13/news/9001210292_1_grave-nicolae-ceausescu-bodies


Not quite so.
1) Western media just took what the local ones were feeding them and then spread it around. The blame here is mostly on the local ones.
2) The graves were REAL and bodies in them were REAL. If those were Russian media they most likely would invent graves and bodies (as they did with the story of a crucified boy http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2014/07/15/there-s-no-evidence-the-ukrainian-army-crucified-a-child-in-slovyansk.html and many others http://english.gordonua.com/news/exclusiveenglish/the-crucified-boy-and-two-slaves-top-10-fakes-of-the-russian-propaganda-60117.html).



And I am too tired (coming back from work) but you can research on how media made Saddam Hussein building a Maginot Line in the desert, the babies taking from the incubators in Kuweit, (https://youtu.be/LmfVs3WaE9Y) the Weapons of Mass Destruction, of course, and I can carry on with the NATO attack on what was Yugoslavia...

In fact, following your advice, I went to watch RT, then I stopped. They are actually the same than Western Media....

1) The girl was on trial IN KUWAIT. Western media just spread around what they were told by the locals.
2) In the West there are media and media, like I said. In Russia there is no such diversity of opinion among the state ones, the others are insignificant in their audience and thus influence.

[Brenus]

"The girl was on trial IN KUWAIT." No. She gave the testimony in US in front of US media. The story was completely invented by the media to prepare the opinion to go to war...
The Maginot line in Iraq wasn't real. The Weapons of Mass Destruction were not real... The Horse Shoes operation in Kosovo wasn't real. The mass graves in the mines were not real (Kosovo again). Sarajevo wasn't totally surrounded by the Bosnian Serbs. And I can carry on. Disinformation and deception are now (if it wasn't always) the major tools of Media all at the order of the powers...

[Gilrandir]

"The girl was on trial IN KUWAIT." No. She gave the testimony in US in front of US media. The story was completely invented by the media to prepare the opinion to go to war...
The Maginot line in Iraq wasn't real. The Weapons of Mass Destruction were not real... The Horse Shoes operation in Kosovo wasn't real. The mass graves in the mines were not real (Kosovo again). Sarajevo wasn't totally surrounded by the Bosnian Serbs. And I can carry on. Disinformation and deception are now (if it wasn't always) the major tools of Media all at the order of the powers...

I have no knowledge of the details of all these canards, so can't judge how guilty were the western media. And I doubt greatly they are ordered by the authorities what to write. Unlike the Russian ones.

And off topic - how "civil" was/is the war in Donbas: a commemorative plaque put up in Russia to honor Russian soldiers killed in Donetsk airport after the Ukrainian spetznaz evicted those who had captured it. Pay attention to the date - the very beginning of the armed conflict and the first shootout in Donetsk.

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So this is who started it all, not the mythic rioting populaces comprising miners and tractor drivers.

[Husar]

I have no knowledge of the details of all these canards, so can't judge how guilty were the western media. And I doubt greatly they are ordered by the authorities what to write. Unlike the Russian ones.

That's because the people who own the western media, tell both the media AND the government what to do.
So just like in Russia.

[Gilrandir]

That's because the people who own the western media, tell both the media AND the government what to do.
So just like in Russia.

In Russia government ARE the people who own media.

[Husar]

In Russia government ARE the people who own media.

Glad we agree then.

[Fragony]

Don't know if it's true and the article is behind a paywall, but according to the UN the Ukrainian government is torturing people on a pretty massive scale in special fascilities. That makes the association treaty with the EU all the more laughable if true.

[Gilrandir]

Don't know if it's true and the article is behind a paywall, but according to the UN the Ukrainian government is torturing people on a pretty massive scale in special fascilities. That makes the association treaty with the EU all the more laughable if true.

The whole report: http://www.ohchr.org/Documents/Countries/UA/Ukraine_14th_HRMMU_Report.pdf

Both sides are suspected of violence, yet evidence on both sides is based on personal interviews. Don't know if those can be treated as accurate.

[Gilrandir]

That makes the association treaty with the EU all the more laughable if true.

I don't see how the UN report bears on association agreement. Jail tortures are disclosed from time to time around the world, even on the territory of the EU countries (https://dearkitty1.wordpress.com/2015/07/19/cia-romanian-torture-prison-discovered-2011/), but neither of those countries was kicked out of the EU, nor the USA's reputation of a beacon of democracy suffered a deathblow after the Guantanamo jail uproar. After all, secret services are notorious for their underhanded methods, especially those which stem from the Soviet KGB.

[Gilrandir]

The head of the Russian duma says Russians are oppressed and discriminated in the former USSR, including Belarus: http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/moscow-cant-sit-by-when-ethnic-russians.html
An ordinary lip service?

[Lizardo]

Ok I have just watched a 2 hour documentary detailing the Crimea debacle. I wish to share it with you.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XeWXs8fLC1I

[Gilrandir]

Ok I have just watched a 2 hour documentary detailing the Crimea debacle. I wish to share it with you.



We saw it way back. And had a heated debate on what Putin said.

[Gilrandir]

And the French Senate pushes on with the urge to lift sanctions against Russia:
http://www.rferl.org/content/french-senate-urges-government-lift-european-union-sanctions-russia/27787635.html

[Gilrandir]

More bullying from Russia:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/15/world/russian-diplomat-accused-of-threatening-rights-advocate-twitter-game-thrones.html?_r=3

[Seamus Fermanagh]

As far as I can tell, there is still nobody aside from Ukraine willing to go to the mat -- read bleed a lot -- to counteract Russia's annexation of these territories. As Ukraine lacks the capability to do much aside from preserve what it has preserved thus far, this is more or less fait accompli at this point. Real politik says move on and accept it. Like it or not, legal or not, I am pretty sure that this is a done deal.

[Gilrandir]

As far as I can tell, there is still nobody aside from Ukraine willing to go to the mat -- read bleed a lot -- to counteract Russia's annexation of these territories. As Ukraine lacks the capability to do much aside from preserve what it has preserved thus far, this is more or less fait accompli at this point. Real politik says move on and accept it. Like it or not, legal or not, I am pretty sure that this is a done deal.

It seems that it is true in respect of Crimea (although the signs of dissatisfaction at the failed expectations of those who welcomed Russia there are more and more evident). But believe it or not, Russia is anxious now to squeeze the occupied Donbas into Ukraine. First of all, it is finding it increasingly hard to sustain the social spheres of DPR and LPR. Second of all, if the occupied territories return on Putin's conditions, it will allow him to exercise control over whole Ukraine. It is Ukraine now that prevaricates and doesn't want to burden itself with the ruined areas rampant with a significant percentage of hostile population whose minds are being poisoned by RT. Popular sentiment in Ukraine is also far from being absolutely in favor of returning DPR and LPR. For the time being this stalemate seems advantageous for Ukraine hoping to outlast Putin's regime. However feeble this hope may seem, we should remember that about 30 years ago noboby would have ever thought that the USSR is doomed. And yet its collapse came about.

[Pannonian]

It seems that it is true in respect of Crimea (although the signs of dissatisfaction at the failed expectations of those who welcomed Russia there are more and more evident). But believe it or not, Russia is anxious now to squeeze the occupied Donbas into Ukraine. First of all, it is finding it increasingly hard to sustain the social spheres of DPR and LPR. Second of all, if the occupied territories return on Putin's conditions, it will allow him to exercise control over whole Ukraine. It is Ukraine now that prevaricates and doesn't want to burden itself with the ruined areas rampant with a significant percentage of hostile population whose minds are being poisoned by RT. Popular sentiment in Ukraine is also far from being absolutely in favor of returning DPR and LPR. For the time being this stalemate seems advantageous for Ukraine hoping to outlast Putin's regime. However feeble this hope may seem, we should remember that about 30 years ago noboby would have ever thought that the USSR is doomed. And yet its collapse came about.

Russia's capabilities were stretched for a while. However, its troops should be returning from their recent deployment in France.

[Gilrandir]

Russia's capabilities were stretched for a while. However, its troops should be returning from their recent deployment in France.

It's not about troops which Russia has in plenty. It's about them moneys.

[Gilrandir]

Pretty soon Russian soldiers (and fans) will be able to teleport to any place on Earth:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/russia-aims-to-develop-teleportation-in-20-years/

[Lizardo]

Pretty soon Russian soldiers (and fans) will be able to teleport to any place on Earth:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/22/russia-aims-to-develop-teleportation-in-20-years/

Well with anything russian made you know it's going to reliable. You wouldn't want a stray bodypart landing in the cannibal infested jungles of PNG.

[Gilrandir]

You wouldn't want a stray bodypart landing in the cannibal infested jungles of PNG.
I wouldn't, the cannibals would.

[Gilrandir]

Whilhttp://www.dw.com/en/are-russias-anti-terror-laws-designed-to-fight-democracy/a-19351398e all the world is busy with Brexit:

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Whilhttp://www.dw.com/en/are-russias-anti-terror-laws-designed-to-fight-democracy/a-19351398e all the world is busy with Brexit:

Does make the Patriot Act seem a little tame.

[Gilrandir]

Is it true or another RT malarkey?
https://www.rt.com/news/348562-putin-erdogan-turkey-pilot/

[Gilrandir]

On Tatars:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/07/07/special-report-crimea-tatars-endure-second-tragedy-under-russian/

[Gilrandir]

http://www.wrath-bearingtree.com/2016/07/russian-fanatics-march-war/

[Gilrandir]

I think it is funny:
https://nobsrussia.com/2015/09/11/cnns-official-guide-to-a-ukraines/

[Gilrandir]

On terms:
http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/how-the-international-media-enables-russian-aggression-in-ukraine

[Gilrandir]

Something is brewing in Crimea?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/aug/10/vladimir-putin-may-believe-time-is-ripe-for-another-invasion
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1470869445

[spmetla]

Like the article said Putin does seem to like using the Olympics as a distraction, immediately after Sochi he took Crimea and although he wasn't the aggressor the war with Georgia was during the Beijing Olympics.

Guess with Obama on the out and re-election pretty much making the US paralyzed for foreign policy it's the right time for his shenanigans. No republicans will approve any initiative of Obama during the election season. Merkel has also been seen as weak due to the migrant crisis so I wonder if she'd be able to gather any meaningful support from the EU to oppose Russia, especially when France has been trying hard to thaw relations with Russia.

Wonder if he got buy-in from Turkey during his recent negotiations. Erdogan certainly doesn't like NATO, the EU,or the US and would probably love to create dissent within NATO and the EU by siding with Russia.

[Hooahguy]

I definitely think that Putin is gearing up for something big. Maybe not within the next couple of weeks but I think before the winter starts we will see much more intense fighting in eastern Ukraine. Not that the fighting ever really stopped, but I think its definitely going to ramp up. I dont think that Russia would do a full-on invasion of Ukraine. I hope not anyways. But spmetla is right, Putin does love using the Olympics as a distraction.

[Gilrandir]

although he wasn't the aggressor the war with Georgia was during the Beijing Olympics.


If you mean that Putin wasn't Russian president then, you are right.

If you mean Russia wasn't the aggressor, you are wrong.

[spmetla]

If you mean that Putin wasn't Russian president then, you are right.

If you mean Russia wasn't the aggressor, you are wrong.

If I recall correctly Georgia tried to take South Ossetia and killed Russian 'peacekeepers' in the process prompting the massive Russian attack/invasion. I'm no fan of Russia but you don't go poking the big bear like that, he will retaliate. Granted that South Ossetia and Abkazia were Russian puppet pseudo-states in one of the many frozen conflicts following the cold war but Georgia tried to change that status quo via force making it the aggressor.
I understand that the Ossetians had been attacking the Georgians (possibly Russian saboteurs to prompt a war?) but the size of the Georgian counter attack was not small and looking at the state of the subsequent operations they certainly had not been prepared for the Russian involvement in such a large scale.

Looking at it now, Saakashvili seemed to have vastly overestimated Bush Jrs. support and willingness to go toe to toe with the Russians as repayment for Georgian support in Iraq. He blundered, badly, and showed the limits to what NATO and the US were willing to protect thereby gifting Putin with a foreign policy coup. Up to that point Putin had not been Mr. RUssiaStrong foreign policy but after that war it became his new policy in the face of US/NATO/EU impotence which is something he certainly sees now and intends to exploit, same as the Chinese in the S. China Sea. Short of force or risking WW3 like during the Cuban missile crisis those two powers are piece by piece building up what they want for a sphere of influence.

I am very worried though that with Trump's recent remarks essentially saying Estonia wasn't worth defending despite being a NATO ally that Putin will try some similar nonsense to save poor oppressed Russians in the Ukraine, Baltic States(especially Lativia), or even something out of left field like weaken Azerbaijan via Armenia to kill another island of US influence in the Caucasus.

[Gilrandir]

If I recall correctly Georgia tried to take South Ossetia and killed Russian 'peacekeepers' in the process prompting the massive Russian attack/invasion. I'm no fan of Russia but you don't go poking the big bear like that, he will retaliate. Granted that South Ossetia and Abkazia were Russian puppet pseudo-states in one of the many frozen conflicts following the cold war but Georgia tried to change that status quo via force making it the aggressor.
I understand that the Ossetians had been attacking the Georgians (possibly Russian saboteurs to prompt a war?) but the size of the Georgian counter attack was not small and looking at the state of the subsequent operations they certainly had not been prepared for the Russian involvement in such a large scale.



You picture the events correctly, but the bolded should be "retake" since South Ossetia was and is ostensibly a part of Georgia which is acknowledged by all countries (except few Russia's satellites).

But is it an aggression if you try to take back your property, and after being repeatedly shelled by those who stole it, too?

And as for Saakashvili's vain hopes for American support - it only whetted Putin's appetite and he ventured to annex Crimea seeing that the West can only express deep concerns at his iniquities.

[spmetla]

True that by all legal means it was part of Georgia but that doesn't make it any better. Using force to retake your property is still aggression. China considers Taiwan its own territory even though its defacto independent, changing that status quo by force is aggression. If the Ukraine were to be foolish enough right now to try and retake the Crimea by force they would certainly be the aggressors even though no one outside the Russia sphere recognizes their annexation of it. It's one of the unfortunate realities that Western Europe has tried to forget but might does make right when it comes to nation-states.

I agree entirely that it only whetted Putin's appetite. Once he started messing with the Crimea NATO should have essentially done a mass mobilization and threatened WW3 if Russia didn't back down. No Western leader has the stones to stand up to him because he's playing politics like it's the 20th century and the West likes to pretend that its evolved beyond having to do that. Unfortunately the only people that would threaten force to defend democracy are idiots like Trump who would discredit and wreck whatever cause they stand behind. Need a few more Kennedy like people in power who can mix soft and hard power while making the West still fill on the morally correct side.

[Gilrandir]

True that by all legal means it was part of Georgia but that doesn't make it any better. Using force to retake your property is still aggression. China considers Taiwan its own territory even though its defacto independent, changing that status quo by force is aggression. If the Ukraine were to be foolish enough right now to try and retake the Crimea by force they would certainly be the aggressors even though no one outside the Russia sphere recognizes their annexation of it.

So Allies' landing in Normandy in 1944 was aggression? Evidently, our understanding of what aggression is are different.

[spmetla]

Starting or escalating tensions into a war versus fighting a battle in a war are not the same.

I understand that the Ukraine is in a low intensity war with Russia's proxies and occasionally Russian troops but not in outright war. Escalating that low intensity war into a proper war in my mind is aggression. Please don't mistake me though, aggression can at times be the right thing to do and I'm pro Ukrainian for sure at least in regards to its eastern Rebel provinces versus Crimea.

I think you and I actually are closer in opinion than you may think but what I'm stating is more or less how the international community will treat any escalation of the war. I far too much of a hawk to decry all aggression but I will not shirk from calling it such.

[Gilrandir]

Starting or escalating tensions into a war versus fighting a battle in a war are not the same.

I understand that the Ukraine is in a low intensity war with Russia's proxies and occasionally Russian troops but not in outright war. Escalating that low intensity war into a proper war in my mind is aggression.

One may claim that by 1944 Normandy had been a scene of low intensity war for 4 years when it was escalated by the Allies' landing.



Please don't mistake me though, aggression can at times be the right thing to do and I'm pro Ukrainian for sure at least in regards to its eastern Rebel provinces versus Crimea.

I think you and I actually are closer in opinion than you may think but what I'm stating is more or less how the international community will treat any escalation of the war. I far too much of a hawk to decry all aggression but I will not shirk from calling it such.

Being close in views doesn't exclude being at variance in understanding some terms. By definition, any war is an aggression.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aggression
Aggression is overt, often harmful, social interaction with the intention of inflicting damage or other unpleasantness upon another individual.

So it doesn't matter what is the intensity of this war - aggression it stays.
Moreover, aggressor is the one who started the war.

A possible escalation of the war/aggression is to be called "escalation" and as it can be both undertaken by the aggressor and the victim. The same with Normandy landing.

[spmetla]

We're clearing not going to come to a consensus seeing as we have differing views on the current conflict and how to define and compare it.

Bottom line: I am very concerned about Russia trying to force an escalation of the current war in the Ukraine.

[Sarmatian]

We're clearing not going to come to a consensus seeing as we have differing views on the current conflict and how to define and compare it.

Bottom line: I am very concerned about Russia trying to force an escalation of the current war in the Ukraine.

At this moment, Russia doesn't need escalation. Russia got what it wanted, Crimea has been annexed, eastern Ukraine is outside Kiev's control and Ukraine in general is a mess, and with every passing day, world is less and less interested in what's going on over there.

A simple cui bono question leads to a different conclusion.

[spmetla]

At this moment, Russia doesn't need escalation. Russia got what it wanted, Crimea has been annexed, eastern Ukraine is outside Kiev's control and Ukraine in general is a mess, and with every passing day, world is less and less interested in what's going on over there.

A simple cui bono question leads to a different conclusion.

I believe the Russians are using Crimea right now together with Olympics to stoke their patriotism and then somewhere out of left field Putin will do something in the Baltic States. He's prevented NATO expansion to the Caucasus Mountains and to his southern border (Ukraine) but still has the Baltic States providing a direct border with NATO which cuts off Kalinigrad Oblast and the waterways to St. Petersburg. While I don't think he would dare be as blatant as in Ukraine I don't doubt that he'll try and create a crisis affecting the large Russian minorities there which he would be obliged to protect at a much later point but in the mean time would cause NATO and the EU to question its commitment to the Baltic States. Trump has already questioned his preparedness to defend our weaker NATO allies and if the US doesn't weigh in there's very little chance that Germany or France would do a thing to oppose Russia.

Russia doesn't need escalation but can use it all the same to its advantage. By causing a rift in NATO and doubt of US commitment to Eastern Europe. Obama is in lame duck territory, Hillary might scare off any peacenik supporters if she indicates opposing Russia with force and Trump is an unwitting aid to Putin's policies. If the Ukrainian government feels completely abandoned by the EU and US who's to say they won't make a deal with the Russians. No shortage of corrupt politicians in the Ukraine who want peace by any means if they can line their pockets with GAZPROM as well. Who benefits out of any escalation of conflict in Ukraine right now is Russia and no one else.

[Husar]

Again, what I never read in these analyses is that an attack on an EU country would not only trigger a NATO defense clause but also an EU one.
So basically the fate of the EU may be decided if he attacks an EU country because if Germany and France don't even defend other EU members from an outright invasion, all of Europe/the entire EU could easily fall apart...

[spmetla]

That's the whole problem, if Russia can create a situation that would cause member states to doubt their support if the defense clause is enacted the whole NATO and EU enterprise could be shattered. Most Americans don't even know Estonia exists much less that it's an ally we'd need to defend, a muppet like Trump would have wide support for withdrawing to the continental US and leaving Europe to defend itself. France and Germany are no where near prepared for squaring off with Russia or its proxies not politically or militarily.

[spmetla]

Would Trump walk away from NATO
http://www.dw.com/en/would-a-trump-america-walk-away-from-nato/a-19475314

Germany calls for calm amid growing crimea tensions
http://www.dw.com/en/germany-russia-call-for-calm-amid-growing-crimea-tensions-with-ukraine/a-19475852

[Husar]

That's the whole problem, if Russia can create a situation that would cause member states to doubt their support if the defense clause is enacted the whole NATO and EU enterprise could be shattered. Most Americans don't even know Estonia exists much less that it's an ally we'd need to defend, a muppet like Trump would have wide support for withdrawing to the continental US and leaving Europe to defend itself. France and Germany are no where near prepared for squaring off with Russia or its proxies not politically or militarily.

Or economically.
In which case you might also want to ask how Russia can afford that.
The country is almost bankrupt and depends on us buying its gas. On the other hand we depend on Russia delivering said gas, especially during winter. And that's just one area of trade and business cooperation. If Putin attacks Latvia or Estonia and doesn't even hide it, he attacks the EU and then we either do something or risk the EU completely falling apart. If there were to be an actual war between Russia and the EU, I'd guess all bets are off. Whether the British would just want to sit there and do nothing, EU membership or not, is a debatable question and Poland has quite a sizeable army, too. It's not just France and Germany, especially Poland would probably want to stop Russia sooner rather than later.

But that war is not just a military thing, because what happens after it? Imagine Putin wins and the armies of Germany, France, the UK and Poland plus a few others are all in shambles. Then what? He probably just lost all income from trade with the EU, his army probably took an enormous amount of losses and several EU countries such as Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Belgium, Czechoslovakia, Sweden, Norway, Finland, Spain, Portugal are still left with their armies. Does he go on and conquer more or just wait until the hurt kicks in because he just lost his biggest trade partner and made 500 million people very angry? http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26436291

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

[Lizardo]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=32vsKWgdywc

Putin is very concerned. Seems like sam Ukrainian Spec ops who tried to ambush yankovich but failed great and dark times we are in my friends.


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=92Ub2kW6iSo

[Seamus Fermanagh]

This was missing black helicopters.

And tinfoil.

[Lizardo]

What ukraine has done is an act of war

[spmetla]

Also consider the scenario where the EU actually does stand together and Russia is not the superpower it once was anymore, the armies of Europe combined would not only rather large in size, but also comparatively more modern and actually quite varied. In a scenario where the EU would actually fight back I don't quite see what Putin could gain, especially since even Trump may get into trouble for just watching that from a distance.

The other option is that the EU falls apart and we start WW3 sooner or later. The End.

I understand your point. Putin has made clear that he doesn't seem to mind his economy tanking so long as he can maintain his domestic support base. All hardships are pointed at the evil West. I know that Russia's military isn't so good that it can sustain military operations too far beyond its borders right now, especially with a country like Poland that takes its national defense seriously next door.

I don't think Putin is quite so stupid as to blatantly attack the Baltic States but do think he'll create some sort of situation there that will draw a line in the sand and demonstrate whether NATO/EU are paper tigers or not.

Hate making the Hitler comparison but remember that he never expected France and the UK to actually go to war with him over Poland. He assumed they too were paper tigers and would instead debate about war endlessly. Saddam didn't think the US was going to invade him in 2003 without a clear resolution form the UN Security Council. Strongman politics is always gambling and trying to call bluffs. I think that Putin believes he can obtain his goal of dismantling or shrinking NATO/EU without having to actually resort to a large war but that type of gambling can very well lead to WW3. Obama's declaration that Nukes would only be used in retaliation to nukes and never be used as first means that the defeating the US in a conventional fight does not mean we'd go nuclear to makeup for that defeat or shortfall which has severally limited the effectiveness of it as a deterrent to conventional military threats.

Also, just to explain myself. I don't see WW3 around the corner but do worry that our fickle leadership right now could set the conditions that might lead to it.

[Gilrandir]

Again, what I never read in these analyses is that an attack on an EU country would not only trigger a NATO defense clause but also an EU one.


Are there EU armed forces?


If Putin attacks Latvia or Estonia and doesn't even hide it, he attacks the EU and then we either do something or risk the EU completely falling apart.

The answer is:



I don't think Putin is quite so stupid as to blatantly attack the Baltic States


As he showed in Crimea and later in Donbas, he will pretend any insignialess military men in Estonia (or anywhere else) are local militias who protect the oppressed Russian-speakers.


What ukraine has done is an act of war
:laugh4::laugh4::laugh4: Do you believe anything Putin says? There are a lot of inconsistencies in Russia's side of the story which make it a fake.

[Greyblades]

Are there EU armed forces? little known fact is that putin is kept from invading through the prospects of fighting the swedish and austrian armies.

[Lizardo]

:laugh4::laugh4::laugh4: Do you believe anything Putin says? There are a lot of inconsistencies in Russia's side of the story which make it a fake.

How is Ukrainian Media spinning it then total silence? And no i don't sometime's i notice what Putin says doesnt add up like this video (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aW_fco6PweI) Putin is bullshitting us,Putin is deflecting saying western propaganda I also know for a fact Russia is extending its border miles within striking distance to the trans caucaus pipeline swallowing up georgian territory and moving barbed wire border fences into georgia, but this situation with ukraine sending special forces units into crimea i totally believe. It's just something they would do because they destroyed powerlines to crimea before.

[Gilrandir]

How is Ukrainian Media spinning it then total silence?

Do you mean Ukrainian media are totally silent about the incident? How do you know?

Ukrainian media are full of it.




but this situation with ukraine sending special forces units into crimea i totally believe. It's just something they would do because they destroyed powerlines to crimea before.

You may believe whatever you like and you may as well say that Russia invaded Ukraine in August 2014 so it would do it again in August 2016.

The most flagrant inconsistensies/stupidities of what Russia spins are:
1. After the incident had happened Russia was silent for three days and only then came up with the story you believe so much. What took it so long to present the facts if there were any? In other cases Russia's reaction is prompt.

2. According to Russia, a group of 15 saboteurs (sometimes they make it 20) with KALASHNIKOVS in RUSSIAN MILITARY UNIFORM broke through border fences in Crimea being supported by INTENSE ARTILLERY FIRE from over the border. Their purpose was to organize a series of explosions to destabilize situation in Crimea and RUIN THE TOURIST SEASON.

a) When they showed the first captured "saboteur" he was wearing a T-shirt. Did they allow him to change to spoil a perfect picture? And the T-shirt he was wearing was his regular one he wore working in his garage (by admission of his brother). Did he take it with him under the uniform to change back into it once the border was crossed?

b) Is this the way saboteurs penetrate into the territory of the enemy? Wouldn't they rather do it as ordinary tourists and later stick to their hidious plan? And why do saboteurs need Kalashnikovs?

c) If there was artillery fire, why no shell craters were exhibited to the public?

d) One should be very smart to ruin the tourist season IN AUGUST when it is drawing to the end (well, if you could call it a season with 1.5 million tourists compared to 6 million in 2013).

3. Russia claimed the group was headed by Ukrainian intelligence officers never exhibiting any. All they showed to the public was three Ukrainians who suited the role of saboteurs perfectly: the first had taken part in Maidan and in fighting in Donbas, the second had been born in Lviv (although he was a Crimea resident, twice served his prison terms on criminal charges before 2014, now and then went to work to Moscow as a builder, supported the annexation and was generally pro-Russian) and the third was a Tatar (arrested two months before, by the admission of his relatives).

4. The things "the saboteurs" had carried with them included (among the other stuff) a rusty pistol and several packages of ground red pepper (of course, written in Ukrainian on it).

5. When Russian TV showed the footage of capturing "the saboteurs" there was something wrong with the moon phase. You can't read it (I assume), but look at the pictures:
http://fakeoff.org/freak-show/ocherednoy-proval-krymskoy-provokatsii

On balance, the likeliest version of what had happened is:

There was a conflict with shooting among Russian military deployed in Northern Crimea in which a FSB officer was killed. Some say there was a brawl between the former Ukrainian military who changed sides in 2014 and the genuine Russian ones (who upbraided the former for betraying the oath). Others say there was a conflict between Russian military and FSB. Anyway, the story of saboteurs was invented to cover up for unsavoury truth and rev up anti-Ukranian hysteria. And to be believed by unwary foreigners.

[Lizardo]

Thanks, very interesting however there is a desire in Ukrainian + Western political circles to commence the war in the east, if Putin wanted to push on in Eastern Ukraine this incident would be a legitimate reason. But i see a stalemate is in Russia interest? But ukraine is a great scapegoat atm. A flare up in conflict may derail the removal of sanctions

[Gilrandir]

there is a desire in Ukrainian + Western political circles to commence the war in the east,

As the events of the last 2 and a half years showed, the West has been doing everything to avoid any war at any price, including pushing Ukraine into any peace treaty. Ukraine has been trying to avoid war since August 2014 (though with a different motivation) when Russian regular army interfered into Donbas fighting.

[Greyblades]

Does the ukraine have any relationship with turkey? As much as a prick Edrogan is they are militarily strong and belligerent towards russia, seems like ideal allies for the Ukraine.

[Gilrandir]

Does the ukraine have any relationship with turkey? As much as a prick Edrogan is they are militarily strong and belligerent towards russia, seems like ideal allies for the Ukraine.

On the one hand, Turkey has always been a supporter of their Turkic brethren in Crimea (Tatars) who were against the annexation. So officially, Turkey took the side of Ukraine in the conflict. On the other hand, inofficially, Turkish ships continue to enter the Crimean ports who are ostensibly under sanctions and thus must be a no-go zone. After Turks had shot down the Russian plane and Russia had imposed sanctions on Turkish vegetables and fruit together with stopping all tourist flow to Turkey, there was a hope that Ukraine and Turkey may draw closer in opposing Russia. However, Erdogan evidently felt snubbed by Europe and the USA and Turkish resort facilities suffered greatly because of the abscence of Russian tourists. So Erdogan went to Putin with his tail between the legs. Such an ally would be too fickle for Ukraine to rely on.

[Gilrandir]

Once again on how "civil" is the war in Ukraine:
http://bunews.com.ua/politics/item/putins-hybrid-war-exposed-kremlins-2014-ukraine-invasion-plans-laid-bare-in-series-of-leaked-telephone-conversations

And the reaction of the main characters of the story:
http://www.meganewsweb.com/en/news/breaking-news-zatulin-soznalsja-chto-dogovarivalsja-s-glazevym-po-krymu

[Montmorency]

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W31cSREhkiM

[Montmorency]

A little translation (last third) to help the joke along:



There's no more Moskovskaya (vodka) or table vodka, not for a while. This is Russia, they've replaced it with a knockoff.

[but at least they have State Wine] ?

With every year it's better to be alive. One can even save up [double entendre: 'drink away'] money if you leave some of the vodka for the morning.

Because vodka (citizen-bros, let's give up vodka from now on, starting today)

Oh how great it is to be sober in the morning (Honestly, citizens).

It's like with Hamlet: to drink or not to drink, that is the question.

Oh vodka, we can't forget you.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

As the events of the last 2 and a half years showed, the West has been doing everything to avoid any war at any price, including pushing Ukraine into any peace treaty. Ukraine has been trying to avoid war since August 2014 (though with a different motivation) when Russian regular army interfered into Donbas fighting.

Only a war in which we might take casualties. If you can arrange the other kind, you'd get a much heartier response.

[Gilrandir]

Only a war in which we might take casualties. If you can arrange the other kind, you'd get a much heartier response.

I know. Why die for Danzig.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Don't mistake me. I think NATO should have pushed the issue, mobilized, and issued war warnings. I have little faith that Putin respects anything short of same. However, NATO is not a unified entity by any means and it was clear that there was little support for initiating, or at least credibly threatening, a border war with Russia.

[Gilrandir]

On how nazi Right Sector are:
http://ukropnews24.com/in-dobrobat-yarosh-opened-the-first-synagogue/
A neccessary comment: there is no more Right Sector of 2014 type: about a year ago it split into Right Sector and Ukrainian Volunteer Army the latter being headed by the former Right Sector leader Dmytro Yarosh.

[Gilrandir]

DNR and LNR are among top violent non-state actors:
https://www.statista.com/chart/5918/violent-non-state-actors/

[Gilrandir]

The MH 17 report:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/europe/mh17-buk-russia/

Everything Bellingcat claimed a year (or even more) ago was corroborated by the official investigation.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The MH 17 report:
http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/europe/mh17-buk-russia/

Everything Bellingcat claimed a year (or even more) ago was corroborated by the official investigation.

It's 28/09/2016 and Putin is still a Fascist and Liar.

The fact it was returned to Russia the next day is most suspicious.

[Gilrandir]

It's 28/09/2016 and Putin is still a Fascist and Liar.

The fact it was returned to Russia the next day is most suspicious.

http://edition.cnn.com/2016/09/28/opinions/an-experts-guide-to-putins-propaganda-playbook-galeotti-opinion/

[Gilrandir]

I came across a very interesting article by the Russian war historian (and plane engineer by profession) Mark Solonin on why Buk was brought from Russia to Donbas.
He draws attention to some very curious facts about it.
1. Buk was not adequate for the tasks of bringing down Ukranian military planes. In MTW terms, it was like sending a Janissary heavy infantry unit to deal with a unit of peasants. Russian army is equipped with at least 4 self-propelled anti-aircraft missile systems (Osa, Tor, Tunguska and Pantsyr) whose range of fire is 8-12 km and altitude of fire - 5-6 km, which is more than enough to empty the sky from infrasonic Su-26 or as old as the hills transport plane An-26. Such systems total about 1,5 units in the Russian army.
Buk, on the other hand, is a very expensive and much less numerous system whose range of fire is 35 km and altitude range - 22 km and which is able to hit targets moving at 2,6 sound velocity. It seems too overpowered and expensive for the tasks of countering Ukranian military aviation.
2. It seems strange that only one Buk was brought. It is against military routine procedures which don't measure weapon systems in units, but in detachments. The army commanders would think in regiments, companies, platoons, squadrons etc, but not in individual units.
3. The Buk came being accompanied by no transportation loading vehicle which means that it could use only four missiles it was equipped with.

All of those make him think that it was not an army operation. It looked more like special service scheme.

4. To reach its destination (which is 60 km from the border) it took the Buk 2 days and it made a circuit of 250 km with a prolonged stop in Donetsk. Being placed at the destination it could have hardly been meant to cover the separatists positions behind it since those positions where close to the Russian-Ukranian border, so the task could have easily (and quite safely) been achieved by placing the same Buk on the Russian side of the border.
5. Stopping in Donetsk it was waiting for the tanks of the separatists' Vostok detachment (as the intercepted communications between the separatists show). The tanks never came, so the Buk moved the way it did.
6. The route of the Russian passenger plane SU 2074 Moscow-Larnaca over Ukraine had been changed twice (on July 14 and 15) giving the fighting zone a birth to the east and to the west respectively. But on July 16 and 17 (when the Buk was out on the drive around Donetsk) the plane route was plotted in the direct line few km aside from the fighting zone.

In view of all these facts, Solonin hypothesizes that the Buk came to Ukraine with the initial purpose of bringing down the Russian passenger plane. To accuse Ukraine of it, it was to be done from the territory controlled by Ukraine. At that time there was no proper front line but rather the roads were controlled by checkpoints but off roads both parties' troops (and tracked military vehicles) could roam at will. So Vostok's tanks were to have escorted the Buk to the place where its range was enough to reach the plane and then escort the Buk back. Since the tanks didn't come and the Buk personnel by the end of the second day was "tired and nervous", to put it mildly (as the intercepted communications show they even "lost" one of their crew members and had to search for him), they just decided to shoot down at least something and go quickly back the hell out of Donbas.

[Fragony]

Hmmm it looks the assocation treaty is comming anyway, sorry Gilrandir you are so fucked, it wasn't me. Have a nice proxy-war and send us your babes please. You can come as well. Nobody has read what's in it meh, only non-quality media did

[Gilrandir]

Hmmm it looks the assocation treaty is comming anyway, sorry Gilrandir you are so fucked, it wasn't me.


I have my own opinion as to whether Ukraine will win or lose by having the AA with the EU. The same as on Brexit. And both are different from yours.



Have a nice proxy-war and send us your babes please.

You mean that without the AA we wouldn't have the proxy-war and wouldn't export babies to the EU? :dizzy2:



You can come as well.
Do you think I can only come if the AA is signed? And why would you need me over there?

What I think is that you meant visa-free traveling, not the AA.

[Gilrandir]

Some blackmailing on Russia's part?
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/03/putin-scraps-deal-to-dispose-of-bomb-grade-plutonium-in-swipe-at/

[Fragony]

I have my own opinion as to whether Ukraine will win or lose by having the AA with the EU. The same as on Brexit. And both are different from yours.



You mean that without the AA we wouldn't have the proxy-war and wouldn't export babies to the EU? :dizzy2:


Do you think I can only come if the AA is signed? And why would you need me over there?

What I think is that you meant visa-free traveling, not the AA.

Free travel is fine, people keep forgetting the military aspects

[Gilrandir]

Free travel is fine, people keep forgetting the military aspects

Then you evidently had some news on AA which I didn't and which got you so emotional.

[Fragony]

That much seems obvious

[Gilrandir]

That much seems obvious

Then spill out your information - is it somehow connected with the Netherlands changing their stance on Ukraine-EU AA?

[Fragony]

Then spill out your information - is it somehow connected with the Netherlands changing their stance on Ukraine-EU AA?

No do you expect the Netherlands to have any influence. The deal with Russia has always been that 'whe' the west would never creep up on them. The AA treaty basicly makes the Ukraine a member-state and a military partner. There more reasons why we said no to it including just hating the EU but (which will be ignored, referendum is not binding) there very good other reasons as well but these only concern us really

[Gilrandir]

The AA treaty basicly makes the Ukraine a member-state and a military partner.

Association =/= Membership nor Military partnership.

[Gilrandir]

Putin demands compensation for the damage caused by US sanctions:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-russia-usa-nuclear-lawmaking-idUSKCN1231HA?il=0

[spmetla]

No chance of that happening.

[Fragony]

Association =/= Membership nor Military partnership.

The first no, the second yes. Our mp is cornered on the latter because nobody wants it here, only the EU does. You must not have heard of it but it's a major issue here. Biggest issue is simply that we said no to it, for various reasons, often just hate for the EU I'll admit that

[Gilrandir]

The first no, the second yes. Our mp is cornered on the latter because nobody wants it here, only the EU does. You must not have heard of it but it's a major issue here. Biggest issue is simply that we said no to it, for various reasons, often just hate for the EU I'll admit that

EU is not a military alliance and doesn't have its armed forces, so the part in the Ukraine-EU AA which you are so afraid of concerns security issues, not military ones. Anyway, we both read the corresponding part of the agreement and had a discussion of it, if you remember.

Meanwhile in Russia:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/06/ramzan-kadyrov-accused-of-child-cruelty-after-entering-pre-teen/

[Gilrandir]

Putin cancels his visit to France.
http://www.i24news.tv/en/news/international/europe/127523-161011-putin-to-skip-paris-visit-amid-diplomatic-rift-over-syria

[Gilrandir]

Now we had it - finally Putin admits Russia was involved into Donbas.
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1476316494
So much for rioting populaces of scared Russian-speakers.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Now we had it - finally Putin admits Russia was involved into Donbas.
http://khpg.org/en/index.php?id=1476316494
So much for rioting populaces of scared Russian-speakers.

He said the troops were there "resolving various issues." No doubt he is requiring his troops to settle outstanding gambling debts, pay off parking tickets, and probably marry a few locals who got ankled. Surely he was not intimating an out-and-out military role? :rolleyes:

[Gilrandir]

He said the troops were there "resolving various issues." No doubt he is requiring his troops to settle outstanding gambling debts, pay off parking tickets, and probably marry a few locals who got ankled. Surely he was not intimating an out-and-out military role? :rolleyes:

He had said it in 2015, so I wouldn't link to the information that old. The latest claim of his (two passages above the one you referred to) is that "they were forced to defend the Russian-speaking population of Donbas". How can you defend somebody on the territory of another country but by sending troops?

Ptuin rhetoric on Donbas shows the same tendency as with Crimea: in March 2014 he said that Russian army didn't participate in besieging Ukrainian military bases - it was local militias (who were dressed in Russian-looking uniforms bought in stores) and that there are no Russian army units in Crimea (except those of the navy); in April he said that "behind local militias stood Russian soldiers", and later (don't remember the exact date, it seems it was in August 2014) he said that they NEVER denied Russian troops played the crucial role in overrunning Crimea.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I was being facetious.

[Gilrandir]

I was being facetious.

I got it.

Meanwhile PACE acknowledges war in Donbas for what it is - Russian aggression:
http://uatoday.tv/politics/political-consequences-of-the-russian-aggression-in-ukraine-785449.html

[Seamus Fermanagh]

What day is it?

[Gilrandir]

What day is it?

The date of the article is October 13, so the resolution was passed on that day or the day before.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The date of the article is October 13, so the resolution was passed on that day or the day before.

was actually asking what day it is expecting "today is 16 October 2016 and so and so is still a...."

[Gilrandir]

was actually asking what day it is expecting "today is 16 October 2016 and so and so is still a...."

Not my style.

[Fragony]

Well as it looks the Netherlands won't be participating in the sneaked in military part of the treaty, but that is not enough. We were pretty clear about what we don't want to be a part of

[Gilrandir]

A film on how much Russia is involved in Donbas:
http://www.france24.com/en/20161014-video-reporters-donetsk-dependent-republic-russia-ukraine-weapons
At 2.40 a curious conversation in which separatists contrive shelling of their own positions to blame it on the Ukrainian army.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

A film on how much Russia is involved in Donbas:
http://www.france24.com/en/20161014-video-reporters-donetsk-dependent-republic-russia-ukraine-weapons
At 2.40 a curious conversation in which separatists contrive shelling of their own positions to blame it on the Ukrainian army.

Gil'

In point of fact, I haven't really doubted, ever, that Russia has been manipulating the whole thing, from the start, to acquire all of Ukraine East of the Dneper along with the Crimea. They want to own/control virtually all of the industrialized portion of Ukraine while leaving Western Ukraine as perpetually weak as Moldava so as to have a nice buffer for themselves.

The real issue, and this is very much the sticking point, is what the heck to do about it.

[Gilrandir]

Gil'

In point of fact, I haven't really doubted, ever, that Russia has been manipulating the whole thing, from the start, to acquire all of Ukraine East of the Dneper along with the Crimea. They want to own/control virtually all of the industrialized portion of Ukraine while leaving Western Ukraine as perpetually weak as Moldava so as to have a nice buffer for themselves.

The real issue, and this is very much the sticking point, is what the heck to do about it.

I linked the film since there are some people (even on these boards) who still believe that what Ukraine is experiencing is a civil war waged by the oppressed Russian speakers against Kiev nazis.

As to what to do - no one knows that. The only way I see is to outlast Russia hoping it will be burdened by its own problems too much to pay serious attention to Ukraine. One of such problems may be the change of leadership.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I linked the film since there are some people (even on these boards) who still believe that what Ukraine is experiencing is a civil war waged by the oppressed Russian speakers against Kiev nazis....

Those elements do exist in the current conflict, but I think you would find very few people -- even on these boards -- who could actually believe that the whole internal portion of this squabble could have amounted to anything like this without Russia aiding and abetting for their own benefit (or maybe even having fomented it).

Regrettably, there are any number of European governments who are willing to "officially" accept that fig leaf -- because the alternative (action against Russia) is too scary. The USA doesn't accept the fig leaf -- but still isn't willing to take decisive action.

[Fragony]

The association treaty IS an action against Russia, and yes that scares me, granted. A Russisn leader can never look weak he doesn't have the luxory. Ukrainian, nazi's, what to say.

[Fragony]

Getting really dangerous https://mobile.twitter.com/NATO/status/789170642897686529?ref_src=twsrc^tfw

[Gilrandir]

Smoke on the water (performed by Russia):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/10/21/russian-carrier-plagued-by-technical-problems/

[Gilrandir]

On one of the principal Putin's aides:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/oct/26/kremlin-puppet-masters-leaked-emails-vladislav-surkov-east-ukraine

[Fragony]

Very big lol, our much beloved PM starts talking about what vaccuum-bombs do when being asked why the associating-treaty is so important, not just a trade-agreement dear president hmmmm? We (those who trust blogs more than state-media and quality newspapers) already knew that and said no to what you said all the time. It's true though for a change, vaccuum-bombs really suck. But what does that have be with something that is just a 'trade agreement', how obvious can you admit that it's more. People who don't watch state-tv and don't read quality newspapers already knew that. Now some of those who as well but they probably just want to bake a pie becsuse of someones birthday. No you stephord wives it's not just a trade-agreement and people who know that at least TRIED to stop it

[Gilrandir]

We (those who trust blogs more than state-media and quality newspapers)

Do you realize that receiving the news that the majority of a nation trust social media Brenus might have a heart attack? Or hamorrhage?
And if you trust blogs:
https://twitter.com/TheEIU_Europe/status/793067317060050944

[Husar]

That's not a blog, it's a tweet. Way too official for Fragony, probably a lie or a ruse depending what his secret inside sources say.

[Fragony]

lol I got no secret sources I just prefer blogs

[Gilrandir]

Then a more official update:
http://www.france24.com/en/20161031-dutch-taking-more-time-end-eu-ukraine-pact-row?ref=tw_i

[Fragony]

We aren't letting him get away so easily, a crowdfund to campaign against it raided 14.000 in just a few hours and 600 volunteered, and the day has just started. There is no middle-ground to be found for 'mr' Rutte, he either signs or he doesn't. He can sign it wouldn't be illegal, but it wouldn't exactly make him very popular (not that he isn't unpopular already)

[Gilrandir]

He can sign it wouldn't be illegal, but it wouldn't exactly make him very popular (not that he isn't unpopular already)

You sound as if whatever his choice is gonna be, he is a dead meat anyway.

[Fragony]

You sound as if whatever his choice is gonna be, he is a dead meat anyway.

Well he could immediatly could have rejected it, instead he choosed to just ignore it hoping it would just go away. He can't do anything right anymore right anymore no, everybody pro or against loathe his attitude of hoping it would just stop if he just ignored it. To be honest it really isn't about the treaty anymore for a lot of people, which is kinda wrong

[Husar]

lol I got no secret sources I just prefer blogs


https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qwLWq5roN_k

Would the Dutch people agree if the association treaty were extended to include Russia?
That would also make all the EUSSR jokes more credible finally.

[Fragony]

We already have an association-treaty with Russia they are a valuable trading partner, especially flowers and cheese go there. But we don't have a militatary agreement with them. Who says that the association-treaty with Ukraine is just about trade is either lying or not informed. The EU wanted to do this as silent as possible and it didn't work, inquisitive people actually read what's in it, hence the 'no'. Mr Rutte keps insisting that it was just a trade-treaty but there is no way back anymore for him, we now know it isn't, and he knows that we know he knew that all the time. That's internet for ya, state-tv and 'quality newspapers' are losing ground

[Husar]

We already have an association-treaty with Russia

And you're a Nazi, because why bother with what I'm actually saying when I can just say something that sounds good to me.

[Fragony]

And you're a Nazi, because why bother with what I'm actually saying when I can just say something that sounds good to me.

Your logic works differently, can't do anything with it, what makes sense to you doesn't to me

by the way, I know that you aren't actually call me a nazi but some could think you do

[Husar]

Your logic works differently, can't do anything with it, what makes sense to you doesn't to me

by the way, I know that you aren't actually call me a nazi but some could think you do

So cute.
I know you aren't actually saying you want all muslims out of Europe but some could think you do (when you say you want all islam out).
I know (actually hope) you aren't actually saying the EU has an association treaty with Russia, but some could think you just did....

[Fragony]

So cute.
I know you aren't actually saying you want all muslims out of Europe but some could think you do (when you say you want all islam out).
I know (actually hope) you aren't actually saying the EU has an association treaty with Russia, but some could think you just did....

What can I say if they think that, what they think is up to them I have no control over that

[Husar]

What can I say if they think that, what they think is up to them I have no control over that

Same here then Mr. Nazi...

[Fragony]

Been fun bye org

[Sarmatian]

Did Fragony just leave?

[Gilrandir]

We already have an association-treaty with Russia they are a valuable trading partner, especially flowers and cheese go there.

It is the first time I hear that the EU has an association treaty with Russia. If you mean the Netherlands have some kind of agreement/treaty, it can't be called "association", since it would presuppose some kind of organization, and the Netherlands aren't one.



Who says that the association-treaty with Ukraine is just about trade is either lying or not informed. The EU wanted to do this as silent as possible and it didn't work, inquisitive people actually read what's in it, hence the 'no'.

It seems to me the two of us were inquisitive enough and didn't find any mentioning of the military part in the agreement. But you keep fantasizing.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Did Fragony just leave?

Seemed like it to me.

[Gilrandir]

There is much talk in Ukraine on the so-called Surkovleaks - the information from Putin's aide's computer which was hacked by "Cyberjunta". It only started to appear in western media (http://www.smh.com.au/world/us-election/surkovleaks-is-vladimir-putin-aides-email-hack-payback-for-dncleakclinton-exposure-20161025-gsaoes.html), so you are welcome to search for it yourself. Generally, it contains the Kremlin's plans on instigating unrest in Ukraine in 2014 and on its subsequent partitioning.
http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/10/25/hacked-putin-aides-emails-detail-alleged-plot-to-destabilize-kiev-surkov-ukraine-leaks/

[Gilrandir]

And Russia pokes its nose everywhere - Italy including (article isn't completely available if you aren't a subscriber but enough to get an impression):
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/russia-accused-of-black-ops-against-renzi-2h9kdrnqt

[Gilrandir]

More on Surkovleaks:
http://in.mobile.reuters.com/article/idINKBN12Y2P5

[Hooahguy]

Gilrandir, is there a fear in Ukraine of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbass region should Trump win the election?

[Gilrandir]

Gilrandir, is there a fear in Ukraine of a renewed Russian offensive in the Donbass region should Trump win the election?

I would say that the fear of offensive is minute. By now the cost of offensive for Putin has grown so much (since Ukrainian army is more prepered for it, has dugged in and is better equipped than in 2014) that he will not risk it whoever the president of America will be. On the other hand, the apprehension connected with Trump as a president is that the USA will stop supporting Ukraine or, to make it worse, will team up with Putin in putting pressure on us to change constitution (giving the occupied territories a special status), to hold elections before the border has been sealed and Russian military have vacated the premises and other unpleasant things Putin has in mind for Ukraine. Or that Trump will lift anti-Russian sanctions and recognize Crimea as a part of Russia.

[Gilrandir]

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/montenegro-russians-election-day-coup-attempt-43339075

[Sarmatian]

Montenegro officials claim Russia was behind the attempted coup. Some of the coup squad have martial experience in Donbas.
http://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/montenegro-russians-election-day-coup-attempt-43339075

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

[Montmorency]

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I find myself underwhelmed.

This coup attempt, if these details are even vaguely correct, was amateurish at best. I think if the Montenegrans were making this up whole cloth as leverage in internal politics, then the plot would be a lot more 'threatening.' I could devise better. In fact, when playing D&D, I did.

Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it? Some Serbs have felt a kinship with Russia for centuries now. Why would we be surprised that some Serbs chose to go and "see the elephant" by fighting for a Pro-Russian militia? In my own Civil War, a number of our Irish volunteers in the Army of the Potomac spoke only Gaelic when they arrived. Foreign born volunteers are scarcely rare. The Brits did not blame us when some of them went home and joined the Fenians in 1867.

This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

[Gilrandir]

I don't bother to check if your statements are true anymore, but I can tell you this is bollox without having to check.

Offer your reading of the event and we will consider how plausible it is.


Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

There are two reasons why Sarmatian considers it bollox:
1. It was linked by me (never mind that it was not MY claim).
2. It implicates Russia.



Yet if we accept the story as true, what does Russia have to do with it?

Russia is the one who voiced its dissatisfaction with Montenegro joining NATO.



This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans. If there were such a plot hatched by Russia -- led by ex KGB folk -- I suspect it would be better funded, organized, planned, and led then this shocking cock-up.

The evidence is far from being conclusive - yet Russia said the same about its participation in the Crimea operation, MH17 and the Donbas wild goose chase. Who knows what facts will surface sooner or later.

Moreover, we sometimes tend to overestimate things, including the might of Russian special services. Even if they put their mind into it there is some/fat/slim (choose to your liking) chance that the plot can go wrong - the way it was with the so-called "Russian spring". Let's suppose they outsourced their coup hoping it would be too easy to bother overtaxing themselves.

[Sarmatian]

Which one, that Montenegro officials claim something, or that their claim is correct? How can you tell it's bollox, for my sake?

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.



This is hardly conclusive evidence for a Russian backed plot for Serb domination of the Balkans.

Interestingly, the current narrative of historically strong Russian/Serbian relationship isn't really justified. Serbia was never Russian first choice. Actually, Bulgarians were Russian favourites. Serbs were, correctly or incorrectly, seen as being under too much western influence, even in the 19th century.

Not really related to the talk at hand, just thought it could be interesting.

[Gilrandir]

Because it is a tried and true method of current Montenegro strongman to portray himself as a defender of Montenegro against foreign interest and/or plots.

It's a tactic he's been employing with varying success for the last 2.5 decades of his rule. No one usually pays attention, but now the story was picked up by some because it involves Russia.

The basis of the current opposition also has been formed a long time ago, early 2000's, at the time when Russia couldn't have possibly had power/funds/means to influence it.

Is it possible that Russia sent some funds to the opposition? Yes, I wouldn't rule it out, but to say that Russia controls the opposition or is organizing coups is silly.

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

More details on Surkovleaks:
https://medium.com/dfrlab/breaking-down-the-surkov-leaks-b2feec1423cb#.jzmq2bvrh

[Sarmatian]

It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.


Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.

My thoughts exactly. And this effort was willy-nilly and poorly planned. Is it possible Russia abetted? Yes. But I deem it improbable.

[Montmorency]

Kudos to Sarmatian for a solid post.


It is also silly to think that Russia doesn't mind Montenegro joining NATO. And by now we know what Russia can do if it wants to prevent a country from joining NATO.

Let's recall the process of ways, means, and ends. Montenegro accession is a nice symbolic boost for America, but a very limited one. Also from a military perspective, Montenegro is a tiny country with a not-very-strategic position, and fewer resources and smaller population than the Baltic countries. Its military, though participating in the process (and having participated in various NATO programs in past years) is never going to amount to more than the gendarmerie of a small town. Russia, to voice its displeasure, has more tools closer at hand, in Syria, in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, the Balkans, Scandinavia, etc. for causing disruption, calling attention to itself, changing global perceptions...

It is deeply unlikely they ever had the resources for a coup in Montenegro, or that they could develop them within a year. Slightly likelier would be that they sponsored a disruptive 'suicide coup', but its hard to see how it furthers Russian interests in any respect, only costing Putin some of his hard-earned aura of canniness and further steeling European countries to guard against Russian machinations.

It's a bad idea to try to directly compare this to the Turkish coup attempt in the summer, so I'll simply urge a consideration of how much Russia could have had to play in that affair going by this attitude. It's not out of the realm of possibility, but it assumes so much in terms of unknown or unknowable secret resources, secret goals, secret actors, secret decisions, and secret communications that it verges on 'Aliens did it' for solid ground. That kind of speculation isn't worth the time unless you have something concrete to point out.

[Gilrandir]

Russian political elite perceives NATO as an unfriendly alliance. In that light, it obviously minds anything involving NATO. That doesn't mean they're gonna execute coups willy nilly all around the world.

No need to do it "all around the world". It may focus on those who were within their orbit not long ago and then pivoted NATOwards.




Also from a military perspective, Montenegro is a tiny country with a not-very-strategic position

Russia, to voice its displeasure, has more tools closer at hand, in Syria, in Ukraine, Romania, Poland, the Balkans, Scandinavia, etc. for causing disruption, calling attention to itself, changing global perceptions...


Montenegro IS in the Balkans.

All those considerations are reasonable. Perhaps there is an explanation for a precipitate and unannounced visit of Russian Security Council Secretary Nikolai Patrushev to Serbia just when the scandal was evolving? And the deportation from Serbia two Russian citizens who were allegedly party to the purported coup?
https://themoscowtimes.com/news/spy-scandal-threatens-russian-serbian-relations-55921

[Sarmatian]

Montenegro IS in the Balkans.


It is, but it is unimportant in so many ways.

NATO bases already are situated much closer to Russia. If new are to be built, there are much better options, both in terms of cost and strategic position.

Military and economic power of Montenegro is insignificant.

The rocky shores of Montenegro aren't well suited to large ports. Its biggest port in the city of Bar is too shallow for bigger merchant ships, let alone big military ships, and there are at least a few better port options in the circle of 200-300km.

I could go on, but you get the gist. Those are the main reasons I don't believe Montenegro is worth it. Just like how they survived as independent state next to huge Ottoman Empire for more than a century - nobody really gives a ****! You may choose to believe that, or you may trust the chief prosecutor from Montenegro who insists there is no evidence of Moscow involvement. Or don't believe any of that, I really don't care.

[Gilrandir]

It is, but it is unimportant in so many ways.

NATO bases already are situated much closer to Russia. If new are to be built, there are much better options, both in terms of cost and strategic position.

Military and economic power of Montenegro is insignificant.

The rocky shores of Montenegro aren't well suited to large ports. Its biggest port in the city of Bar is too shallow for bigger merchant ships, let alone big military ships, and there are at least a few better port options in the circle of 200-300km.

I could go on, but you get the gist. Those are the main reasons I don't believe Montenegro is worth it. Just like how they survived as independent state next to huge Ottoman Empire for more than a century - nobody really gives a ****! You may choose to believe that, or you may trust the chief prosecutor from Montenegro who insists there is no evidence of Moscow involvement. Or don't believe any of that, I really don't care.

If it is so insignificant, why Russia is so disturbed about it joining NATO? And there is still no explanation to Patrushev's helter skelter visit to Serbia and two Russians ostensibly involved into the coup.

[Sarmatian]

Personally, I believe he came for sex and booze, but officials maintain it was about enhancing cooperation in the sphere of security, especially concerning international terrorism, migrant crisis and situation in Kosovo. He met with minister of foreign affairs and minister of interior affairs, payed his respects to Russian soldiers who died during liberation of Belgrade, held a press conference... Everyone on both sides said the visit was planned for months in advance, and that there were no Russian citizens deported from Serbia.

The entire story was launched after a daily newspaper "Danas" wrote an article about it, citing unnamed source. That newspaper is known for making outlandish claims and is not considered reputable.

But, we all know that's bollox and he came for sex and booze.

[Brenus]

Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.

The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.

The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....

hbts.?

Hobbits? They'd be in NATO in a hot minute if that's true.

[Gilrandir]

Montegro: 622,000 hbts.
US (NATO) base in Kosovo.
Really, what would be the interest of Montenegro for NATO? Naval Bases? Croatia would be more than happy to offer that... And Croatia has all the former military naval ports built by Tito.

The only thing worth to fight for in Montenegro is olive oil and Malboro made in Russia smuggling....

So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?

[Montmorency]

So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?

I think the idea is more consolidation - who isn't NATO at this point? Austria, Switz, Scandinavia, Serbia/Kosovo - after that we get into the direct confrontation (with Russia) territory. Also the symbolic statement given how US-Russia relations have gone since 2009.

[Montmorency]

Left out non-members (disregarding things like Malta):

*Ireland - also claims neutrality
*FYROM/Republic of Macedonia - blocked by Greece
*Bosnia - likely to join in coming years

[Brenus]

"So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?" No. But is Montenegro joining NATO is so dangerous that some need a Coup to stop it?

[Gilrandir]

I think the idea is more consolidation - who isn't NATO at this point? Austria, Switz, Scandinavia, Serbia/Kosovo - after that we get into the direct confrontation (with Russia) territory.

It might be an eye-opener, but, according to the Kremlin, NATO already IS in the direct confrontation territory aka Baltic states and Poland.



"So NATO is inveterately stupid in accepting Montenegro?" No.


You gave reasons why Montenegro is absolutely useless for NATO. Don't they see it?



But is Montenegro joining NATO is so dangerous that some need a Coup to stop it?


It is a pity you can't admire the uproar produced by Russian media discussing Montenergo joining NATO. The average accusation is betrayal Slavic brotherhood. Given the vitriolic character of the uproar one would think it is one of the major concerns of the Russian government.

[Sarmatian]

Don't they see it?


Is this how you wanna do it? Pass over arguments by supposedly asking "insightful questions" ad nauseum until you simply bore everyone into submission?

[Brenus]

"Is this how you wanna do it? Pass over arguments by supposedly asking "insightful questions" ad nauseum until you simply bore everyone into submission?" I have to say for Gilrandir that is a very successful tactic. His best.

[Gilrandir]

Is this how you wanna do it? Pass over arguments by supposedly asking "insightful questions" ad nauseum until you simply bore everyone into submission?

I ask this question because I see inconsistencies (and no arguments) in what Brenus claims. On the one hand, he says that Montenegro isn't worth accepting into NATO. On the other hand, he says that NATO is not that stupid to fail to see the worthlessness of Montenegro as a NATO member. The question that arises is how can wise NATO leadership make such a stupid move. And I wanted Brenus to explain it. That simple.

As for the tactics you accuse me of, it is not aimed at any submission. But it is the same one your friend Brenus employs all the time. Yet it doesn't make you nauseous, does it? Quod licet jovi non licet bovi?

[Gilrandir]

A new mural was spotted in Belgrade.
http://www.liveleak.com/view?i=30b_1478525913
Will a Serb now voice his dissatisfaction that Bandera "is glorified" in Ukraine? :laugh4:

[Sarmatian]

For the first post, that wasn't at all what he was saying, but I don't really care about your opinion. Whenever you become too obnoxious, the thread turns into you communicating with yourself by posting link after link. If that's ok with you, go right ahead.

As far as second post is concerned, I have no idea who the guy is and what he has to do with Bandera.

[Brenus]

"And I wanted Brenus to explain it." Err, why should have to explain your mental process? Be responsible for your words, I am for mine.