Ukraine Thread

[Kagemusha]

As the original thread has been closed, because of complete sidetracking. I thought of returning to the subject, because of the recent developments.

Linky: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28969784

Apparently modern Russian equipment are crawling all over the separatist controlled area in Eastern Ukraine, accompanied by familiar masked "little green men" carrying modern Russian military gear.

While the "ceasefire" at least at Donetsk airport has never really even materialized, now some experts claim that large scale warfare will start in matter of days.

I dont like this development one bit.

[Sarmatian]

I was wondering when someone will reopen the discussion.

A big opportunity for peace has been missed. After the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, Russia recognized the results as legitimate will of the Ukrainian people. A few days later, elections in the rebel controlled areas were held, and representatives elected. It was a perfect occasion for two sides to recognize each other's representatives so that proper dialogue can start. Kiev refused to do so.

Instead, Kiev proceeded to physically cut the rebel controlled areas from the rest of the country - passport control, cutting them off the budget (pensions, salaries...) and refusing to supply them with basic necessities, most importantly gas for heating.

Now, all potential avenues for dialogue are closed, and there simply is no other options for people in Donetsk and Lugansk but to fight and try to secede. I'm hoping it won't come to that. but they have been cornered, there's no other way to go for them now.

I'm still trying to understand why Kiev did what they did.

[a completely inoffensive name]

It's November 13th, and Putin is still a fascist.

[Strike For The South]

Don't worry I'm sure once he gets sudentanland Eastern Ukarine I'm sure he will stop. I'm not even sure those brutish drunks know how much up shit creek they really are

[HoreTore]

I hear Darth Sidious is on his way.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30039004

The Russians are transporting their dead soldiers home.

Not like we didn't know of course.

Kiev, of course, expected Russia and the Separatists to follow the proposed timetable. Likewise, Russia and the Separatists never intended to.

If the Separatists were going to hold election two days after the Ukrainian one that would have been what was reported ALL OVER THE WORLD after the Minsk talks.

I think the best we can hope for now is that Ukraine is able to push the rebels back when they launch their spring offensive (the rebels have admitted it's coming).

[Brenus]

Well, according my Yahoo:
Putin prepared the WW3 years ago.
Russia start to feel the pinch of sanctions for months (nothing to do with the oil prices going down apparently)
Putin allied with IS.
Putin was invading Ukraine.
Bombers carrying Nuclear weapons are daily intercepted by (Norwegian, British, Polish, NATO) airplanes (pictures of Tupolev T 95 4 engines Bear as illustration)
Russian Navy spying from International Waters New-Zealand.
Bombers (again Tupolev T 95 Bear) flying near Cuba, then New-Zealand.
Russian sub-marine is being spotted by Norwegian (I think) Navy.
Russia starts to feel the pinch of Western Sanction (again).
Hundreds of thousands of Russian troops are gathering near the borders with thousands of tanks.

I probably forget some.

So, it is time for Putin to DO something…

[Gilrandir]

A big opportunity for peace has been missed. After the Ukrainian parliamentary elections, Russia recognized the results as legitimate will of the Ukrainian people.

But the separatists never did since those were junta elections.


A few days later, elections in the rebel controlled areas were held, and representatives elected. It was a perfect occasion for two sides to recognize each other's representatives so that proper dialogue can start. Kiev refused to do so.

Considering the way the "elections" were held that was a sensible decision. Should Ukraine have recognized the Crimean "referendum"?


Instead, Kiev proceeded to physically cut the rebel controlled areas from the rest of the country - passport control, cutting them off the budget (pensions, salaries...) and refusing to supply them with basic necessities, most importantly gas for heating.

The latter is wrong. Yatsenyuk said that they will not cut the occupied territories from gas and electricity supply for the people (some of whom surreptitiously support Ukraine) not to freeze in winter although he realizes that the services they will enjoy will not be paid for (at least so far). Experts suspect that such a decision was adopted partly because the cutting off can't be technically achieved.
As for cutting off the budget, how could you imagine the opposite? For example, a substantial part of high school and university teachers openly support DPR and proclaim themselves citizens of it - should Ukraine have them on the paylist? The same with other categories of state employees: Ukraine can't control performing their duties, so it doesn't pay them.


Now, all potential avenues for dialogue are closed, and there simply is no other options for people in Donetsk and Lugansk but to fight and try to secede. I'm hoping it won't come to that. but they have been cornered, there's no other way to go for them now.

Those who fight mostly have nothing to do with people of Luhansk and Donetsk (as I have pointed out elsewhere). But those who fight have already poclaimed their seccession and even held the elections to legitimize it. Consequently they have other reasons to go on fighting than seccession which they have already attained.


[
I think the best we can hope for now is that Ukraine is able to push the rebels back when they launch their spring offensive (the rebels have admitted it's coming).
There is no talk now of pushing back (for fear of direct Russian intervention as it was in August) but of holding the current front line. Rather it is the rebels who are pushing on (they have captured a number of checkpoints in Luhansk region since "the ceasefire" was in effect).




So, it is time for Putin to DO something…
He is doing it all the time (the reports of recent reinforcements and weapon supplies across the border come from different quarters). If you don't see it it doesn't mean it isn't there.

[Gilrandir]

Linky: http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-28969784

The linked article claims that

Russian President Vladimir Putin said that all they agreed to in Minsk was to hold elections "in co-ordination with, not in line with" Ukrainian election plans.

Compare point 9 of Minsk protocol
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minsk_Protocol
Now who's lying - BBC or Putin?

And I don't like the thread title - The empire struck back on August 24. Now it strikes on.

[Viking]

https://i.imgur.com/6PMSWfd.jpg

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.

[Greyblades]

Man, the koala on the right looks really uncomfortable. And what happened to thier fur?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Ukraine should let the Eastern regions secede. They cannot out-compete Russian (which is what the current fight is, regardless of how "officially" or not Russians are directly involved) resources without an outside ally willing to risk bloodshed in large quantities to assist them. Such an ally does not exist.

Fighting it out would be legally correct and the braver choice....just won't work though.

That's not entirely true.

Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival. If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions. If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.

Added to this, whilst Ukraine is not exactly a bastion of democracy and due process the rebel areas are led by Junta's holding obvious sham elections using rifles and potatoes. Whilst there will be majority-rebel areas in both provinces there will also be pro-Kiev areas and the prospect of partition is more bloodshed within those provinces as undesirable "traitors" are expelled.

In related news - all government-run services in rebel held areas are being withdrawn: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-30072483

It's only logical, for as much as it will hurt the common man Kiev can't subsidise rebel rule.

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

[Gilrandir]

So this is what 'shirtfront' means.
Putin is making sure no Russian speaking koalas are oppressed in Australia.



If Ukraine allows secession now the Rebels will push to take the remains of the contested regions.
They will not stop at administrative borders but will move on to "liberate the people of entire Novorossia from the junta". From what I hear the rebel-held territories are being contested between different groups of separatists to get access and control over businesses practised there. Other important sources of income for them are car thefts (with their subseqent transportation to Russia) and scrap metal collecting (again with subsequent delivery to Russia) since a lot of broken military machinery is left to rust in the open. Some of separatists (namely Chechens) are more inventive - they erect checkpoint (even in places which are far away from the frontline) and take tolls from cars for passing through.

[Brenus]

“If Ukraine can bleed Russia and the rebels enough over the summer they can stall the offensive and possibly make some gains.” Looks like from Erick Falkenhayn who believed “to wear down the defences of the French and bleed their army white”. With the success we know. The question is why the Ukrainian would not bleed as well, as the German did in France?

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

[Rhyfelwyr]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

[Kagemusha]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

I dont think Crimea has been forgotten. It is just simple fact that there is no will from anyone to do anything about it. Ukraine cant take Crimea back via military means, because they simply do not have means to do so. West could impose more economic sanctions towards Russia, but those sanctions would start to hamper the economy of Europe as well, so it would seem that everyone has just accepted the situation as it is.

[Greyblades]

Meanwhile we see once again what a poor Ally the Americans and their Western vassals make - don't trust the yanks they won't lift a finger to help anyone.

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

[Gilrandir]

Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc.

I like that "probably". Probably weapons, probably tanks, probably ammo, probably fuel. So there is still a fat chance that the Lugandonians have plants working for them that produce all those things, isn't there?


Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.

Once we had an international treaty (culminating in the Budapest memorandum) that guaranteed some things for Ukraine. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
After that (in 1997) in Ukrainian-Russian treaty - of friendship and cooperation, btw - Russia explicitly guaranteed Ukraine's integrity and sovereignty. Remind me how it helped Ukraine.
It's not been yet three months since Ukraine signed the Minsk protocol. What stipulations of it (except the prisoners' exchange) were fulfilled by Russia and by "probably" assisted by Russia separatists?
Now Ukrainians don't want to be cheated again by Russian promises.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Fairly sure it's less "American doesn't help her allies" and more "America doesnt help some far away country it has no legal obligation to".

America and the UK (and Russia) undertook a commitment 20-odd years ago to maintain the territorial integrity of Ukraine in return for Ukraine giving up it's nuclear weapons.

So, in fact, the US does have some legal obligations here, as does the UK. Further, a Ukraine is a NATO ally it is accurate to say that "the US does not help its allies".

[Greyblades]

The Ukraine is most certainly not a NATO member and as for legal obligations: citation needed.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

“Russia, as the aggressor, is fighting for gain whilst Ukraine is fighting for it's survival.” The problem is you are still thinking as Russia is interested to take Ukraine when all evidences suggest otherwise, at least for the moment.
Russia is “just” keeping the rebels the nose out of the water, balancing the forces, so material, political support, probably some cash, volunteers, etc. Ukraine can’t win, so NATO can’t come in, as to join NATO, you have to be at peace. You want peace in Ukraine? International treaty guarantying Ukraine will never join NATO.
Remember, you are one who see Russia as an enemy (from the Cold War time) so there are no reasons why Russia couldn’t see NATO as an enemy as well.
And, actually, Russia has more circumstantial evidences for that than you have of warlike NATO actions to be confirmed in its suspicions.

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I like how the entire world seems to have completely forgot about the annexation of Crimea.

Every time I hear that last phrase I feel like I've been transported back in time a couple of centuries...

Back in time? I want territory X has never gone out of style -- despite our benighted attempts to assume we are "past" all such things.

[Kagemusha]

I said years ago that Russia, and Puin specifically, was an enemy of the West. I'm hardly happy to be able to say "I told you so" now but "material support, probably some cash, volunteers etc." basically means Russian units operating inside Ukraine (Russian units have have volunteered to operate loaned Russian weapons). You can go through all the contortions you like and it will make no difference to the reality that the backbone of the "rebel" armed forces are Russian and controlled from Russia. Putin will doubtless admit this as soon as he has secured his objectives.

That objective is the rinintegration of Ukraine with Russia and it's division from the rest of Europe.

You forget how this all started - Putin bribed the Ukrainian President not to sign a treaty with the EU. He could have just offered to sign a different treaty AS WELL but he had to make sure Ukraine only had ties to Russia.

It's selfish petty Imperialism at its most absurd.

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

[Kadagar_AV]

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.


I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...

In little more than a decade he has turned a joke of a Union into a nation that is a sincere BIG dog on the international scene, and he has over and over out-played the "one supreme super power" we are said to have.

Pax Americana my ***.

The US had its quick minutes of fame between 1995 and 2015... 20 years is not bad for an empire, but it's not really that cool either.

Unfortunately, the only thing contributed to the world was never ending wars, a backstep when it comes to secularity as a state idea and a failed economic system.

[Sarmatian]

I seriously think Putin should be held among the all-time best strategists...


Not really sure about that, but if it were a video game, there would have been massive cries to nerf Putin.




It would be nice if we don't let the thread deteriorate like the last one did. It seems all out war is pretty much inevitable now. Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

European statements tend to go from "moar sanctions" to "let's cut back a little", without clear idea what to do.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Putin will always win the chess game as long as Europe continues to buy natural gas from Russia. Currently, 30% of natural gas Europe uses comes from Russia. I think it is possible to reduce that 30% down if Europe was willing. But energy prices are high in Europe already, so it all depends on whether it is worth it to the EU to sacrifice a few eastern countries in order to keep the energy market status quo.

[HoreTore]

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe.

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......

https://i568.photobucket.com/albums/ss124/ralphge/DrEvil.jpg

[Gilrandir]

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.


Being completely cut off from Ukraine and barred from dialogue, there's no other course for the rebels.

This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.

[Montmorency]

the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China

AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

[Gilrandir]

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Unless those states openly proclaim their desire to take their way elswhere except Russia they are safe. But the moment they do Russia will play its traditional card of protecting Russian-speaking communities (and in Khazakhstan, for instance it is quite sizeable). But even without that Zhirinovsky claims that northern Khazakhstan (if not the whole of it) is historically Russian territory. Putin himself, in one his portentous historical speeches, commended Nazarbayev on creating a state where it has never existed.
http://www.eurasianet.org/node/69771
Whence there is one step to a claim that Russia has a right to own what Russian empire has owned for quite a time.

[Sarmatian]

Please do!

We need some more gold up here in the north......


That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.


It is delusional to believe Russia can reshape the direction of its current fuel torrents overnight and redirect them eastwards in this very winter. I think it will need about five years (especially gas and oil supply as current facilities are inadequate) for Russia to supplant their Western export with the same amount of Eastern one. And that is given that Russia has money to spend on building pipelines through taiga and what not and Russia's money seems to be tight (especially this winter). And from what I heard China declined to subsidize the construction.

It works both ways. It would take a lot of time and a lot of effort for Europe to switch suppliers. Only significant producer of natural gas that is close enough is Iran. Even if Europe manages to find another supplier that can produce as much natural gas as Europe needs, it still needs infrastructure to get that gas transported to Europe, which means new pipelines. LNG also needs infrastructure and is much more expensive than pipeline natural gas. Russia will most certainly manage to finish Chinese pipeline before, and anyway, we're talking about 5-10 years in the future.

This was the course rebels themselves chose and shaped. They want to have as little to do with the junta as possible and cleave to Russia.
You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation. They can't be wooed back now. Whether one supports Kiev or rebels, it would seem that the only way Kiev comes out on top is if it manages to defeat the rebels by military means, which I believe is impossible.


AFAIK the infrastructure to make such a threat good on is not available, though Russia is trying to diversify the customer-base to SE Asia.

But let's say that a US-Azeri alliance deepens and pipelines through the Caspian via Azerbaijan and the Black Sea bring Central Asian oil to Europe, plus development of green energy/natural gas, while Russia focuses exports on Asia to replace Europe - where does that leave the world (in say 20 years)?

It could mean that Russia has greater motivation to attempt to further Finlandize, or outright absorb, the Central Asian states.

Most interestingly, the fates of China and Russia would collocate more strongly, since they would become more mutually-dependent. OTOH, China would probably feel this less than Russia.

In that light, it's possible to see the US strategy here as allowing Russian weakness to develop to its natural conclusion, i.e. the point where Russia overplays its hand and gets smacked down hard by the international community. In other words, a momentous confrontation between Russia and the US over the Ukraine question is against US interests, since the US position can improve whereas by all accounts the Russian position can only worsen.

In the end, yes, I suppose there is always the possibility that Russia will flip out and start WW3 as it loses the capacity to act in the world over the coming decades.

I'd say that Russia's on the rise, rather than decline, so waiting it out will fail. Even if you're right, that's several decades in the future. Nobody likes the idea of a frozen conflict for the next 25+ years.

[Montmorency]

I'd say that Russia's on the rise

On what basis?

[Sarmatian]

On what basis?

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

[Montmorency]

<5% per annum is extremely high?

[Greyblades]

In a world where austerity is given a time of day, it is.

[HoreTore]

That would be fine if your Minister for Energy didn't say that Norway doesn't have the capacity for that several months ago.

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

[Sarmatian]

Who cares?

I'm not talking about saving the euroweenies. When oil is scarce, the price will skyrocket. Thus, my pension will be happy.

You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish :smitten:

[Ironside]

All trends predict that Russia will continue to enjoy extremely large GDP growth and that by 2050, it will be 4th-6th largest economy in the world, with only China, USA and India ahead for sure.

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual) Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

[Rhyfelwyr]

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

[HoreTore]

You're so sexy when you get so decisively selfish :smitten:

It's not like I'll be able to influence anything; might as well enjoy the ride....

While Putin is being a fascist and his eastern Ukrainian allies are up to their old tricks rigging sham elections, I might as well be happy that this will benefit myself.

[HoreTore]

Plus Russia has similar demographic problems to China in terms of having an ageing population, low birth rate etc.

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

[Rhyfelwyr]

That's Western Europe.

But we've got immigration to make up for it, so no worries here.

There seems to be talk (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5056672.stm) about a particular demographic crisis in Russia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_crisis_of_Russia).

Considering that this population decline will coincide with population growth of many of the more troublesome minorities (various peoples of the Caucasus etc), Russia would appear to be facing problems that you can't really compare with Western Europe.

[HoreTore]

There seems to be talk (http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/5056672.stm) about a particular demographic crisis in Russia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographic_crisis_of_Russia).

I'm not disagreeing on a demographic crisis in Russia; just that the two features you mentioned are ones found in every western European country.

[Montmorency]

One one hand, Putin could always grant the migrant workers in Russia - millions of them - full citizenship.

On the other hand, the EUSSR could always import more blacks and Muslims. :wiseguy:

[Sarmatian]

It's the fifth today and is currently growing with about 0.8%. (http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/gdp-growth-annual) Current trend is negative from next year.

You were thinking about pre 2012 data?

It's 8-9th today (2013 data). 2001, 2002... 2013, 2014 data. All projections show the same thing. Russia is under sanctions at the moment and suffering from significantly lower oil prices, but it shot over the 0.2% last quarter growth the West was predicting, having 0.8% instead. Eurozone had 0.7% for comparison. Sanctions coming back to bite EU.

The overall economic balance of power is shifting and the West is declining in relative power. BRIC and MINT will be the dominating force economically. Western sanctions are insignificant in the long term.

Russia will also grow in relative power. While now Russia has 1/3 of combined GDP of Germany and France, in 2050 it will have between 30% and 40% of the entire EU.

The trend can not be ignored. Waiting for Russian power to wane is a strategy doomed to fail.

[Montmorency]

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.

[Sarmatian]

I'm afraid I don't see how you can make such wildly-bullish extrapolations. Russia has little room to grow in even the best of circumstances.

And your claim is more accurate than all the world's experts because.... ?


Anyway, Wiki has Russia at 6th in PPP-adjusted GDP.


It's nominal. It's hard predicting PPP in 2050.

[Montmorency]

all the world's experts

Where?

[Sarmatian]

Where?

Everywhere. Google it. Give or take, Russia's at the top and it's economic strength has increased, both in absolute and relative terms.

[Montmorency]

Everywhere. Google it.

All the experts I'm reading of predict stagnation at best.


it's economic strength has increased, both in absolute and relative terms.

Well, yeah? So has everyone else's in the world. That's not an argument for anything in particular.


Russia's at the top

Now you're just overplaying your hand.

[Sarmatian]

All the experts I'm reading of predict stagnation at best.

I'd like to see that one, please.


Well, yeah? So has everyone else's in the world. That's not an argument for anything in particular.

Not everyone can increase in power relative to others. That's impossible.


Now you're just overplaying your hand.

At the top meaning among the most powerful nations in the world economically. Not literally in the first position. Sorry, literal translation of a Serbian phrase to English. My bad.

[Viking]

In an interview with German ARD, Putin finally admits in no uncertain terms that his guys were out blocking Ukrainian military bases (12:39):


http://youtu.be/BdlXqyZHB9k?t=12m39s


Our armed forces literally blocked the Ukrainian forces located in Crimea.

But that is still vague enough to deny specific incidents, allowing him and his apologists some leeway while Crimea is still a hot potato.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Opinions like these are the result why the hard line has won in Russia. What are you going to do with Russia? Ignore their nuclear capacity and start a conventional war, in which Europe and US does not have the muscle to do so in their current capacity.

If Russia wants really for the shit to hit the fan, come the winter and all the natural gas,oil and coal going to Europe will not appear, but will go to China, lets see then what will happen at Europe. You sir are delusional in your portrait of the situation.

You simply dont understand that we have lost this chess game and there is nothing to do about it anymore.

I don't really disagree with much of this, but I don't see how it speaks to my post.

[Montmorency]

Not everyone can increase in power relative to others. That's impossible.

In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/conferences/2012/russia_shirov_2012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-report-oil-energy-vladimir-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvportal/upload_crv/biblioteca/servizio_studi/OECD_2060-policy-paper-FINAL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

[Sarmatian]

In absolute terms, clearly they can and have.

But if you want to focus on relative terms - note that Russia wasn't coming from a very (economically) strong place itself (i.e. the 90s). The idea is that by now it has exhausted its potential for rapid, or possibly even sustained, growth.

Here are some links:

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/russia/forecast
http://www.inforum.umd.edu/papers/conferences/2012/russia_shirov_2012_slides.pdf
http://www.oecd.org/berlin/50405107.pdf (Table 4.1 esp.)
http://www.ibtimes.co.uk/wef-russia-report-oil-energy-vladimir-putin-427882
http://www.consiglioveneto.it/crvportal/upload_crv/biblioteca/servizio_studi/OECD_2060-policy-paper-FINAL_11_2012.pdf (Figure 9 and Annex Table

Note the low growth figures in GDP absolute and per capita, the shrinking working-age population, and the static allocation of industries in growth (i.e. lack of diversification). Obviously countries across the world will work toward closing the gap with China and the US, but in the above projections it seems the US will actually have slightly-larger long-term growth in GDP than Russia.


A much more important game for Russia than Ukrainian territory or whatever now (and in the long-term) is control of the Arctic Circle, which Canada, Norway, UK, Sweden, Japan, and of course the US are poised to compete in.

Growth projections have been slashed across the board, but all of your links except the first predict a good growth rate for Russia and always better than Eurozone.

The first is rather weird, but they predicted 0.25% growth for the last quarter while in reality it was 0.8%.

The fourth mentions "bleak outlooks" but the entire article consists of weasel words, without mentioning a single figure anywhere.

Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy. Regardless how successful that reform is, economic growth in Asia and Africa will keep the price of resources and energy high for the foreseeable future, which means Russian economy is safe for the next several decades. If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

[Montmorency]

If they manage to pull off a proper reform, living standards will most certainly reach western levels, and probably be ahead of almost all EU countries.

Just to note that even if Russia turns away from Europe economically, it will still depend quite a bit on its performance via the world economy. Diaschisis (https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=diaschisis) is a useful concept.

Actually, that's one of the interesting things. Tangential to us right now, but the larger links above - as well as other similar sources - consistently predict that GDP per capita, and living standards more generally, will lag behind the Western peak by anywhere from 1/3-1/2 for countries like Russia and China, and 3/4 for countries like India and Brazil.

However, I do note that this is probably an overly-linear view of economic growth in our time, and that technological developments could upset these analyses both in and outside the West.

Look at microbanking in the developing world - after all, this is financial access based on widespread cell-phone usage that we're talking about!

TLDR, I don't like Russia's prospects on the (inter)national scale, but don't really trust any specific analysis past 2030. The links above were simply to demonstrate that there are indeed many pessimistic perspectives on Russian development.

[Gilrandir]

You're entitled to think that. It might even be true, but, even if it is true, the fact is that Kiev closed off all other options for them except direct military confrontation.
They can't be wooed back now.

Do you suggest Ukraine should pay pensions and salaries to the Crimea as well to woo it back? Own up to it: the moment the conflict grew into a military confrontation with Russia actively participating, it is not the separatists who decide on options. Russia is the one to stop it at any moment it wishes by withdrawing whatever military support it is giving and sealing the border against any penetrations both ways. Since Russia is not interested in it now and goads the separatists on and on I see no solution to the conflict except keeping the Lugandonians at bay beyond the existing frontlines.

In an interview with German ARD, Putin finally admits in no uncertain terms that his guys were out blocking Ukrainian military bases (12:39):

I know some people here on the forum who will again start looking for metaphors in Putin's words to deny the fact that he was lying back in spring when he said that Russian soldiers were not instrumental in occupying Crimea.
Moreover, in this interview Putin said that if some dissidents decide to fight they will find a way of getting weapons. He sounds like the separatists find weapons on their own without him being aware where they get them.




Russia has one huge obstacle to reach living standards of richest western nations, and that is diversification of its economy.
This obstacle is minor in comparison to corruption. Among the most recent cases, Sochi olympics were exemplary notorious for embezzlements and other financial abuses. 2018 World Cup is the one that is likely to surpass Sochi.

[Gilrandir]

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

People in DPR and LPR start to voice their dissatisfaction with the abscence of payments blaming separatists.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SY0BoCyQTGs
In two cities (Sverdlovsk and Chervonopartizansk) local separatists declared that they obey neither LPR nor Novorossia. It seems that the occupied territories get more and more fractured, so there is no chance of wholesale negotiations, they will have to be dealt with piecemeal. There is also some evidence that local separatists address Ukrainian army at certain locations asking it to fire at their rivals (such anger is usually aimed at Chechens) and even disclosing the positions of the latter for the army to take aim.

One of the things that happened in Afghanistan was that various tribes would tell the Americans that people from another tribe were "terrorists". In one instance two American patrols with local guides called down air strikes on each other.

As I said months ago, I'm sure there was a legitimate sense of grievance in these areas, but a few hardliners, probably with Russian support from the start, turned this into a war and dragged everyone else in.

[Kadagar_AV]

One of the things that happened in Afghanistan was that various tribes would tell the Americans that people from another tribe were "terrorists". In one instance two American patrols with local guides called down air strikes on each other.

As I said months ago, I'm sure there was a legitimate sense of grievance in these areas, but a few hardliners, probably with Russian support from the start, turned this into a war and dragged everyone else in.

Did I mention Putin is a great strategist?

Regardless, a source would be nice... :)

[Strike For The South]

It's November 20th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

[Kadagar_AV]

It's November 20th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

You kind of come off as having learnt a cool phrase from someone you looked up to, and then you just go on applying it every chance you have.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

You kind of come off as having learnt a cool phrase from someone you looked up to, and then you just go on applying it every chance you have.

And what the hell do you think law school is about?

[Kadagar_AV]

And what the hell do you think law school is about?

Keeping people who argue like SFTS out?

[Strike For The South]

It's November 21st and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.

[Kadagar_AV]

It's November 21st and Validamir Putin is still a fascist.



Oh come on, I can program my pocket watch to give more intelligent replies.

[Strike For The South]

Oh come on, I can program my pocket watch to give more intelligent replies.

You assume the point is a well crafted statement

[Brenus]

"It's November 21st". :2thumbsup: You've got the date right...

[Sarmatian]

I'm just interested - what's the point of spelling his name wrong every time?

[Husar]

I'm just interested - what's the point of spelling his name wrong every time?

I assume Valid-Amir, that sounds like a cartoon character and amir is a high arab title (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emir) of sorts.
1. It makes him cartoonish and mocks him
2. he's obviously a terrorist!
3. The entire sentence is about brainwashing anyway
4. Don't think, just hate Purten!

[Sarmatian]

I assume Valid-Amir, that sounds like a cartoon character and amir is a high arab title (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emir) of sorts.
1. It makes him cartoonish and mocks him
2. he's obviously a terrorist!
3. The entire sentence is about brainwashing anyway
4. Don't think, just hate Purten!

Possibly, but overthinking Strike's statement is usually a wrong move. If it weren't for the exact same misspelling, I would have just assumed he is that disinterested or that he posted drunk.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Oh come on, I can program my pocket watch to give more intelligent replies.

You, a high-tech Euroweenie Austro-Swede are still using a pocket watch? Now I know where to send all those old fobs I have lying around.....

[Kadagar_AV]

You, a high-tech Euroweenie Austro-Swede are still using a pocket watch? Now I know where to send all those old fobs I have lying around.....

Self defense reasons...

I armed up rather massively since my little cultural clash some months ago. Steel chain pocket watch in one hand, 4000lumen flashlight with stroboscopic mode in the other, that can double as a baton, and a 45kg wolf to guard my rear and flanks...

As it's a pocket watch, it doesn't count as a concealed weapon (eventhough it sure is).

[a completely inoffensive name]

http://www.kyivpost.com/content/politics/ukrainian-coalition-plans-to-cancel-non-aligned-status-seek-nato-membership-agreement-372707.html

[Gilrandir]

Self defense reasons...

I armed up rather massively since my little cultural clash some months ago. Steel chain pocket watch in one hand, 4000lumen flashlight with stroboscopic mode in the other, that can double as a baton, and a 45kg wolf to guard my rear and flanks...

As it's a pocket watch, it doesn't count as a concealed weapon (eventhough it sure is).
One thing you still lack and that is a light saber. Too proud and trustful in weapons you are. Use the force that is within you.

Meanwhile back to the topic.
Girkin gave an interview to the Russian newspaper Zavtra (what kind of newspapaer it is - http://www.rferl.org/content/russias-nationalist-fringe-take-center-stage-in-eastern-ukraine/25425155.html)

in which he claimed responsibility for the current war in Ukraine and admitted that if it hadn't been for his interference, the conflict would have ended like it did in Kharkiv or Odesa. This is for those who still believe that we are having a civil conflict in Ukraine and Russia has nothing to do with it.
http://zavtra.ru/content/view/kto-tyi-strelok/
Couldn't find a translation of it, sorry.

[Viking]

==> http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russias-igor-strelkov-i-am-responsible-for-war-in-eastern-ukraine/511584.html


Russian national Igor Strelkov, a former commander of pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine, has claimed "personal responsibility" for unleashing the conflict across the border, in which 4,300 people have been killed since April.

"I was the one who pulled the firing trigger of this war," Strelkov said in an interview published Thursday with Russia's Zavtra newspaper, which espouses imperialist views.

"If our unit hadn't crossed the border, in the end everything would have fizzled out, like in [the Ukrainian city of] Kharkiv, like in Odessa," Strelkov, also known as Girkin, was quoted as saying.

[Sarmatian]

As usual, the part you chose to quote doesn't match the contents of the article.

He talks about Ukrainian military being reluctant to get involved and that first units or "raiding parties" were ultranationalists like Right Sector. If he (his unit) hadn't been involved, they would have quelled resistance quickly like they did earlier. He takes full responsibility for resisting them, which triggered the war, otherwise, ultranationalists would have just rolled over eastern Ukraine.

He also mentions that practically all of the local population was pro-Russian, that they were extremely disappointed with lack of proper support from Russia and that they were shocked when Russia rebuffed them after the referenda held.

[Strike For The South]

It's November 23rd and Validamir Putin is still a fascist

[Gilrandir]

As usual, the part you chose to quote doesn't match the contents of the article.

He talks about Ukrainian military being reluctant to get involved and that first units or "raiding parties" were ultranationalists like Right Sector. If he (his unit) hadn't been involved, they would have quelled resistance quickly like they did earlier. He takes full responsibility for resisting them, which triggered the war, otherwise, ultranationalists would have just rolled over eastern Ukraine.

He also mentions that practically all of the local population was pro-Russian, that they were extremely disappointed with lack of proper support from Russia and that they were shocked when Russia rebuffed them after the referenda held.
So triggering the war was a better solution than an imagined "ultranationalists' roll over eastern Ukraine"? I wonder what were the earlier casualties after such a roll elsewhere? Even if we consider the ones in Odesa (which were caused by the pro-Russians attacking a football fans march not by Right Sector), are they comparable to what is going on in Donbas now?
As usual, you believe any pro-Russian or (in this case) Russian, especially those who try to find a just cause for penetrating another country and starting a war there.
As usual, you are missing the whole point: even Russians admit that there wouldn't be any war in Ukraine if Russia hadn't interfered (which is what I have been saying for half a year while others were babbling about suppressed minorities with local grievances who wage a just war against Kiev nazis).

[Gilrandir]

It's November 23rd and Validamir Putin is still a fascist
I think Voldemort would sound better.

[Sarmatian]

So triggering the war was a better solution than an imagined "ultranationalists' roll over eastern Ukraine"?

Don't look at me, I'm a pacifist and not invested in any way, shape or form in the outcome, but it is generally considered that a local population providing armed resistance to an armed outside force which wants to force something on them, it's not the local population that's at fault.


I wonder what were the earlier casualties after such a roll elsewhere? Even if we consider the ones in Odesa (which were caused by the pro-Russians attacking a football fans march not by Right Sector), are they comparable to what is going on in Donbas now?
As usual, you believe any pro-Russian or (in this case) Russian, especially those who try to find a just cause for penetrating another country and starting a war there.

That's very likely not what happened, but I'm past arguing with you on that.


As usual, you are missing the whole point: even Russians admit that there wouldn't be any war in Ukraine if Russia hadn't interfered (which is what I have been saying for half a year while others were babbling about suppressed minorities with local grievances who wage a just war against Kiev nazis).

You're missing the point. There wouldn't have been WW2 if no one resisted Hitler.

[Gilrandir]

Don't look at me, I'm a pacifist and not invested in any way, shape or form in the outcome, but it is generally considered that a local population providing armed resistance to an armed outside force which wants to force something on them, it's not the local population that's at fault.

It is a good excuse - to say that no one in the world should be hurt for any cause. But reality bites - sometimes one have to sacrifice a little to avoid greater harm.
But in the disscussed case it was not the local population that started the armed resistance, but Girkin (aka Strelkov) and his GRU posse. This fact is important in seeing the real meddler and instigator of the conflict.



You're missing the point. There wouldn't have been WW2 if no one resisted Hitler.
I was speaking not of resisting but of interfering into other country's affairs. But you again seem to liken Ukrainian regime to nazis. Well, now you won't have any reason to - Svoboda has 7 seats in the newly elected parliament, Right Sector - 1 and they will not be represented in the government. You will have to invent other imaginary fears which may justify what is going on in Donbas.

[Sarmatian]

It is a good excuse - to say that no one in the world should be hurt for any cause. But reality bites - sometimes one have to sacrifice a little to avoid greater harm.
But in the disscussed case it was not the local population that started the armed resistance, but Girkin (aka Strelkov) and his GRU posse. This fact is important in seeing the real meddler and instigator of the conflict.

That's great. Why doesn't Kiev sacrifice a little pride, recognize election results and give eastern Ukraine a greater autonomy?



I was speaking not of resisting but of interfering into other country's affairs. But you again seem to liken Ukrainian regime to nazis.

I have not. I was pointing out that you can't place the blame for conflict on a side that's resisting what they perceive to be an outside threat coming into their area.

[Beskar]

I assume Valid-Amir, that sounds like a cartoon character and amir is a high arab title (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Emir) of sorts.

I concentrated on the first-part, assuming he means Vladimir Putin is Valid in his offensive-actions in the Ukraine with a historical reference to the Muslim Hordes, he thought it worked better than Valid-Tsar.

[Husar]

I concentrated on the first-part, assuming he means Vladimir Putin is Valid in his offensive-actions in the Ukraine with a historical reference to the Muslim Hordes, he thought it worked better than Valid-Tsar.

Yeah, either way SFTS seems to be a Putin apologiser. ~;)

[Strike For The South]

It's November 24th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist

[Sarmatian]

Is there something about texans that makes bluntness charming?



No.

[rickinator9]

It's November 24th and Validamir Putin is still a fascist



Too much time on your hands?

[Strike For The South]

No.

A unified Yugoslavia still loses by 30 to the 92 dream team

[Sarmatian]

A unified Yugoslavia still loses by 30 to the 92 dream team

Two things:

1. In your dreams
2. It's sad you have to build up a team from two decades ago.

Realistically? I'd say 10-20.

[Kralizec]

That's great. Why doesn't Kiev sacrifice a little pride, recognize election results and give eastern Ukraine a greater autonomy?

Why should Ukraine swallow their pride when the other side has so clearly breached an agreement of only several weeks old? Why should anyone recognise so called 'elections' which have not been reviewed by impartial observers and whose only purpose is to provide a fig leaf for the gang of thugs that have been in power before, during and after the event?

The Minsk agreements stipulated that Ukraine would be sovereign over those territories and that it would provide autonomy and locally elected leaders. It does not mean that Ukraine has to legalize this completely unilateral sham after the fact. The autonomy was already provided for by Ukrainian law, but withdrawn after the separatists reneged on the deal.

[Sarmatian]

Why should Ukraine swallow their pride when the other side has so clearly breached an agreement of only several weeks old? Why should anyone recognise so called 'elections' which have not been reviewed by impartial observers and whose only purpose is to provide a fig leaf for the gang of thugs that have been in power before, during and after the event?

The Minsk agreements stipulated that Ukraine would be sovereign over those territories and that it would provide autonomy and locally elected leaders. It does not mean that Ukraine has to legalize this completely unilateral sham after the fact. The autonomy was already provided for by Ukrainian law, but withdrawn after the separatists reneged on the deal.

Hardly. Minsk agreement was broken a long time before with neither side respecting ceasefire.

Ukrainian law obviously doesn't provide enough autonomy for them. So far, it was the rebels who were calling for a dialogue, and Kiev has consistently been refusing. A great chance was missed to have a dialogue, establish an acceptable level of autonomy and have new elections after that. Not only Kiev refused, they physically isolated them from the rest of the country, thus alienating even the most moderate people there.

The alternative to that is Kiev crushing them militarily, which is a laughable idea. Ukrainian foreign currency reserves are nearly depleted, their gold reserves are almost gone, hryvna losing value constantly and the Ukrainian army is still reluctant to do anything major, forcing Kiev to rely on ultranationalist paramilitary groups. They can't make a sustained effort, and even if they gain an upper hand for a short time, Russia just needs to up its support for that much.

At this point, I'd support Kiev if they could pull a clean and efficient military operation to regain control with minimal civilian casualties, but they can't even do that AND they've been consistently closing all possible avenues for dialogue. What's Kiev strategy? To physically isolate that part of the country? To starve and freeze them to compliance? Despicable. And I'm truly amazed that some people's fear or hatred of Russia stop them from seeing that. They only need to start catapulting bodies with plague to go fully medieval at this point.

[Kralizec]

Hardly. Minsk agreement was broken a long time before with neither side respecting ceasefire.

Ukrainian law obviously doesn't provide enough autonomy for them. So far, it was the rebels who were calling for a dialogue, and Kiev has consistently been refusing. A great chance was missed to have a dialogue, establish an acceptable level of autonomy and have new elections after that. Not only Kiev refused, they physically isolated them from the rest of the country, thus alienating even the most moderate people there.

The alternative to that is Kiev crushing them militarily, which is a laughable idea. Ukrainian foreign currency reserves are nearly depleted, their gold reserves are almost gone, hryvna losing value constantly and the Ukrainian army is still reluctant to do anything major, forcing Kiev to rely on ultranationalist paramilitary groups. They can't make a sustained effort, and even if they gain an upper hand for a short time, Russia just needs to up its support for that much.

At this point, I'd support Kiev if they could pull a clean and efficient military operation to regain control with minimal civilian casualties, but they can't even do that AND they've been consistently closing all possible avenues for dialogue. What's Kiev strategy? To physically isolate that part of the country? To starve and freeze them to compliance? Despicable. And I'm truly amazed that some people's fear or hatred of Russia stop them from seeing that. They only need to start catapulting bodies with plague to go fully medieval at this point.

Both sides have broken the ceasefire repeatedly, so that's neither here nor there.

Neither side has disavowed the Minsk agreement, though. Ukraine went ahead and passed legislation giving Donbass autonomy. I don't know if the Minsk agreement specified the level of autonomy; as far as I know there's no English version of the text. Nevertheless, if the separatists thought it wasn't enough to be acceptable they should have demanded more, and failing that, declared that they no longer see the Minsk plan as being valid.

Russia could almost certainly have kept the separatists from holding "elections" if it wanted to. But far from that, they immediately recognised the results and called on the rest of the world to do the same. The whole charade was overwatched by a bunch of stooges flewn in by Russia so that they could say "foreign observers" were present. Everything about it smells of bad faith.

Shortage of supplies and heating gas - honestly, did they expect the country they violently seceded from was going to allow free traffic of goods and energy? How is this Ukraine's fault? If we're talking about humanitarian trouble, I'd be a lot more concerned about the political repression and lawlessness that pervades these "people's republics".

[Gilrandir]

Why doesn't Kiev sacrifice a little pride, recognize election results and give eastern Ukraine a greater autonomy?

Once again: Lugandon denied any other option but complete independence. But even if it hadn't there is no way to make any kind of agreement with peple who don't control all of the territory they hold since they don't control all the hitmen there. For example, Minsk agreements were not recognized by Don cossacks in Lugansk region, Bezler's group in Horlivka, Chechens here and there and Motorola's group around Donetsk airport. There is no unified Eastern Ukraine, nor Novorossia, nor DPR, nor LPR. The area is divided between 12-17 gangs some of which obey no one (not even Putin).



I was pointing out that you can't place the blame for conflict on a side that's resisting what they perceive to be an outside threat coming into their area.
Once again: a side that's resisting now (and started resisting back in spring) is Russia. That is the side I place the blame on for the stalemate we are having now.

Not only Kiev refused, they physically isolated them from the rest of the country, thus alienating even the most moderate people there.

How do you know the bold? The source, please.


the Ukrainian army is still reluctant to do anything major, forcing Kiev to rely on ultranationalist paramilitary groups.

How do you know the bold? The source, please.
You seem to be rooted in what you claimed half a year ago and base your judgements on your own assumptions and wishful thinkings.
Reluctance of the Ukrainian army spotted in spring was explained by the fact that its propulsion was resisted by unarmed people (mainly women). The reluctance vanished since the nature of the resistance changed. And the minister of defense is the ex-head of the National Guard who you seem to include into "ultranationalist paramilitary groups". So, following your logics, that cutthroat can have no scruples whatever giving ordres to kill civilian Russian-speakers in heaps. Wait, I heard something like that before... Ah, yes. Russian TV showed a speaker who claimed that at one Ukrainian checkpoint near Kramatorsk Ukrainians don't let anyone pass through without taking money from them, one grandfather didn't have it so they took by force ten eggs he had with him. Another time they raped a 50+ woman who had an epileptic fit during the rape, but it didn't stop the perpetrators so they kept on doing their business while the whole bus (out of which they had pulled her) were watching them. Another "witness" said that Ukrainian soldiers fight in the East because they had been promised a piece of land and two slaves to till it.
Any more tales of horror you can add?


At this point, I'd support Kiev if they could pull a clean and efficient military operation to regain control with minimal civilian casualties

Like what Croatia did to Kraina?


What's Kiev strategy? To physically isolate that part of the country? To starve and freeze them to compliance? Despicable. And I'm truly amazed that some people's fear or hatred of Russia stop them from seeing that. They only need to start catapulting bodies with plague to go fully medieval at this point.

You should sell the last idea of yours to RT. They will be mighty glad and you will make some easy money.
And I'm truly amazed that some people's hatred of Ukraine stops them from seeing that what Ukraine is doing is not a punishment nor a way of forcing the recalcitrant part of it into something. For once, it is not the people of Donbas who are putting up the armed resistance now and the current armed authorities of Donbas will suffer no harm, it is the ordinary people who will, and Kiev is aware of that.
You seem to know so much of the current economic and financial situation in Ukraine to realize that Ukraine can't keep financing the territories that don't pay taxes into its budget. Even when they did they were heavily donated from the said budget, so the expenditures were not covered by the taxes. Now it is a forced measure applied to the areas where Ukraine can't control anything. Do you think the USSR should have paid pensions and salaries on the territories occupied by Germany in 1941-44?
Btw, if a person comes to the "Ukrainian part of Ukraine" he can receive his payments (if those are financed from the central budget).



as far as I know there's no English version of the text.
Russian:
http://www.osce.org/ru/home/123807?download=true
English:
http://www.democraticunderground.com/10025499736
Pay attention that Russia (via Zurabov) signed it (though it is not mentioned in Russian media), so it has some responsibilities too, no?


Russia could almost certainly have kept the separatists from holding "elections" if it wanted to. But far from that, they immediately recognised the results and called on the rest of the world to do the same.

Correction: Russia said that it respected the choice of the Donbas people. A day later Lavrov (iirc) said that "to recognize" and "to respect" are two different notions.

[Sarmatian]

Once again: Lugandon denied any other option but complete independence. But even if it hadn't there is no way to make any kind of agreement with peple who don't control all of the territory they hold since they don't control all the hitmen there. For example, Minsk agreements were not recognized by Don cossacks in Lugansk region, Bezler's group in Horlivka, Chechens here and there and Motorola's group around Donetsk airport. There is no unified Eastern Ukraine, nor Novorossia, nor DPR, nor LPR. The area is divided between 12-17 gangs some of which obey no one (not even Putin).

Precisely the reason why Kiev should have recognized (even provisionally) the election results.



Once again: a side that's resisting now (and started resisting back in spring) is Russia. That is the side I place the blame on for the stalemate we are having now.

Well, I'm willing to agree that we disagree on that.


How do you know the bold? The source, please.

Common sense. If I'm a moderate who wants things to go back to how they were, I'm royally screwed because my government cut me off completely.


How do you know the bold? The source, please.

Lack of major combat operations, a lot of small scale fighting and whenever it happens, it usually involves National Guard or paramilitary groups.


You seem to be rooted in what you claimed half a year ago and base your judgements on your own assumptions and wishful thinkings.
Reluctance of the Ukrainian army spotted in spring was explained by the fact that its propulsion was resisted by unarmed people (mainly women). The reluctance vanished since the nature of the resistance changed. And the minister of defense is the ex-head of the National Guard who you seem to include into "ultranationalist paramilitary groups". So, following your logics, that cutthroat can have no scruples whatever giving ordres to kill civilian Russian-speakers in heaps. Wait, I heard something like that before... Ah, yes. Russian TV showed a speaker who claimed that at one Ukrainian checkpoint near Kramatorsk Ukrainians don't let anyone pass through without taking money from them, one grandfather didn't have it so they took by force ten eggs he had with him. Another time they raped a 50+ woman who had an epileptic fit during the rape, but it didn't stop the perpetrators so they kept on doing their business while the whole bus (out of which they had pulled her) were watching them. Another "witness" said that Ukrainian soldiers fight in the East because they had been promised a piece of land and two slaves to till it.
Any more tales of horror you can add?


Que? What are you even talking about.


Like what Croatia did to Kraina?

Croatia performed ethnic cleansing in Krajina, so obviously not that. If Croatia defeated military force and protected civilian population and integrated them back as citizens with full rights, I'd have very little problem with entire thing.

[Gilrandir]

Common sense. If I'm a moderate who wants things to go back to how they were, I'm royally screwed because my government cut me off completely.

From what I know I would say that allegiance of people didn't change because of that fact. Those who were pro-Russain don't consider current Ukrainian government as "their government" (and with anti-Ukrainian propaganda they are not likely to), so they stayed pro-Russian getting one more reason to hate Ukraine, others realize that the payments will be renewed when/if the territories are won back. After all this is the strategy to win back the lost lands - to show that elsewhere the life is better, no?



Lack of major combat operations, a lot of small scale fighting and whenever it happens, it usually involves National Guard or paramilitary groups.

How do you know the bald? The source please.
From what I know the lack of offensive on the part of Ukrainian armed forced (both regular and others) is partly explained by the inclination of the government to stick to Minsk agreements, partly by the inadequate weapons and troops quantity to do that (according to the war rules, if you want to start an offensive you are to have at least four times more troops on a theater; as for the kind of artillery and armored vehicles that Ukraine possesses, they are largely old decrepit things that demand constant repair; both men and arms domination Ukraine had had in summer was lost after August 24, when Russia intervened directly and since that time has been pumping its "help" across the border) and partly (or perhaps primarily) by the fear that the moment we start an offensive Russia will say that Ukraine has forfeited the signed agreements and will invade openly.



Que? What are you even talking about.

You still believe the stories of Ukrainian atrocities against civilians (performed by "ultranationalists") in the areas controlled by Ukraine.

[Viking]

the Ukrainian army is still reluctant to do anything major, forcing Kiev to rely on ultranationalist paramilitary groups.

I don't see how this is correct. AFAIK, the regular troops (artillery) was instrumental in the taking of Sloviansk. It was also regular troops that decisively defeated the separatists at Donetsk Airport at the start of the insurgency, and who has been holding it ever since (with some support). It was also regular troops that were close to cutting off the separatists' supply lines from Russia when they came under heavy and sustained artillery fire and withdrew.

[Sarmatian]

From what I know I would say that allegiance of people didn't change because of that fact. Those who were pro-Russain don't consider current Ukrainian government as "their government" (and with anti-Ukrainian propaganda they are not likely to), so they stayed pro-Russian getting one more reason to hate Ukraine, others realize that the payments will be renewed when/if the territories are won back. After all this is the strategy to win back the lost lands - to show that elsewhere the life is better, no?

I believe the state has an obligation to its citizens. Furthermore, it encourages the local authorities to set up their own system and encourages all people living there to try to work within that system if they don't want their families to starve/freeze, and in the end, the entire thing moves closer to the point of no return.

Winning hearts and minds is where this conflict could be decided.


How do you know the bald? The source please.
From what I know the lack of offensive on the part of Ukrainian armed forced (both regular and others) is partly explained by the inclination of the government to stick to Minsk agreements, partly by the inadequate weapons and troops quantity to do that (according to the war rules, if you want to start an offensive you are to have at least four times more troops on a theater; as for the kind of artillery and armored vehicles that Ukraine possesses, they are largely old decrepit things that demand constant repair; both men and arms domination Ukraine had had in summer was lost after August 24, when Russia intervened directly and since that time has been pumping its "help" across the border) and partly (or perhaps primarily) by the fear that the moment we start an offensive Russia will say that Ukraine has forfeited the signed agreements and will invade openly.


From the reports and news I've read over the last several months. Involvement of the actual army has been pretty minimal and small scale.
That has been pretty consistent from the start and I haven't noticed major changes after Minsk agreement.


You still believe the stories of Ukrainian atrocities against civilians (performed by "ultranationalists") in the areas controlled by Ukraine.

I do believe they have been rather indiscriminate with their targets, yes, and that, in my opinion has a lot to do with the previous paragraph - too little involvement of the actual army and too much involvement of the National Guard (which seems to be a poor attempt to hastily legalize paramilitary groups like the Azov brigade). I also think they are significantly worse than the Rebels in that regard, even though the Rebels have hardly been angels so far.


I don't see how this is correct. AFAIK, the regular troops (artillery) was instrumental in the taking of Sloviansk. It was also regular troops that decisively defeated the separatists at Donetsk Airport at the start of the insurgency, and who has been holding it ever since (with some support). It was also regular troops that were close to cutting off the separatists' supply lines from Russia when they came under heavy and sustained artillery fire and withdrew.

I didn't say no involvement, I said little involvement. Western media tend not to draw a distinction between the actual Ukrainian army and recently formed National Guard.

[Viking]

I didn't say no involvement, I said little involvement. Western media tend not to draw a distinction between the actual Ukrainian army and recently formed National Guard.

What I just listed is some most of the serious involvement on Ukrainian side thus far in the conflict. I don't see how much more the Ukrainian army could have done.

In most of the battles, the separatists are located inside cities and towns. There are only two options then: raze the city to the ground or go in slowly.

[Gilrandir]

I believe the state has an obligation to its citizens.


Unless those citizens live in the (temporary) occupied territories. Even so the Ukrainian government will still keep those territories supplied with gas and electricity expecting no payment for it. This is as much as it can do for the time being.



Winning hearts and minds is where this conflict could be decided.

Not possible while Russian media keep poisoning those hearts and minds. And minds must tell their owners that Ukraine can only finance territories it controls.


I do believe they have been rather indiscriminate with their targets, yes, and that, in my opinion has a lot to do with the previous paragraph - too little involvement of the actual army and too much involvement of the National Guard (which seems to be a poor attempt to hastily legalize paramilitary groups like the Azov brigade). I also think they are significantly worse than the Rebels in that regard, even though the Rebels have hardly been angels so far.

Your mind has been poisoned by Russian propaganda as well, like the stories I cited. National Guard was a transformation of Internal Troops done in March, long before any fighting broke in Donbas. And turning Azov into a brigade of National Guard happenned after several months of fighting. Do you call it hasty? Even before that ALL volunteer battallions functioned with the legal framework of either Ministry of Defense or National Guard.

[Sarmatian]

What I just listed is some most of the serious involvement on Ukrainian side thus far in the conflict. I don't see how much more the Ukrainian army could have done.

In most of the battles, the separatists are located inside cities and towns. There are only two options then: raze the city to the ground or go in slowly.

As I've said, western media tend not to make distinction between the two. In taking of Slavyansk, both army and the National Guard were present. What was the exact ratio, I don't know.

Ukraine can field a rather large with reserves deployed. The fact that they had to resurrect National Guard and that National Guard was involved in pretty much all skirmishes/battles tells me that Kiev doesn't trust the army so much (NG is controlled by the Ministry of Interior Affairs)

[Kadagar_AV]

What date is it? What is Putin's political allegiance?

[Sarmatian]

What date is it? What is Putin's political allegiance?

It is Novmembeber 25th annd Validamiridonenko Putiniatin is still a fascimile.

[a completely inoffensive name]

It is Novmembeber 25th annd Validamiridonenko Putiniatin is still a fascimile.
Well, you at least got the date correct.

[Sarmatian]

Well, you at least got the date correct.

Are you trying to say he's not a fascimile?

Why do you hate freedom?

[Gilrandir]

The fact that they had to resurrect National Guard and that National Guard was involved in pretty much all skirmishes/battles tells me that Kiev doesn't trust the army so much (NG is controlled by the Ministry of Interior Affairs)
1. I don't know what you mean by "resurrection", I repeat: National Guard was called Internal Troops until it was renamed. In fact it is the same Berkut that was on Maidan in winter. Sometimes there were tensions reported between ex-Berkuts and newly recruited volunteers in training camps but once they were on the battle field the tensions were forgotten.
2. Since National Guard is in fact spetznaz and it is more fit for military actions than much neglected, underfinanced and often badly trained army, it is natural that it bears the brunt of fighting. Yet there are some elite army detachments (like paratroopers or marines) which are up to the task, so they are in the thick of fighting as well (for example, in Donetsk airport, Debaltseve and others). There is no trust distinction as you would like to find between different kinds of troops.


It is Novmembeber 25th annd Validamiridonenko Putiniatin is still a fascimile.
His first name in your interpretation sounds like a Ukrainian last name. Perhaps he is a Ukrainian nazi as well?

[CrossLOPER]

His first name in your interpretation sounds like a Ukrainian last name. Perhaps he is a Ukrainian nazi as well?
He is if the exact copy is not which it isn't, but could be if it is, which means it definitely is.

[Sarmatian]

1. I don't know what you mean by "resurrection", I repeat: National Guard was called Internal Troops until it was renamed. In fact it is the same Berkut that was on Maidan in winter. Sometimes there were tensions reported between ex-Berkuts and newly recruited volunteers in training camps but once they were on the battle field the tensions were forgotten.
2. Since National Guard is in fact spetznaz and it is more fit for military actions than much neglected, underfinanced and often badly trained army, it is natural that it bears the brunt of fighting. Yet there are some elite army detachments (like paratroopers or marines) which are up to the task, so they are in the thick of fighting as well (for example, in Donetsk airport, Debaltseve and others). There is no trust distinction as you would like to find between different kinds of troops.

From what I've read, National Guard was formed at the beginning of the nineties and laid to rest by Kuchma in 2000. It was reactivated in March 2014. It is supposed to be a light infantry type of unit, under control of Interior Affairs.

Another big issue are Territorial Defense units, bulk ofwhich was also formed from volunteers post Maidan. They were under control of Interior Affairs as well, until recently when they were transferred to the Army, iirc. Just how big is their composition in the units fighting in the east I really don't know.

It seems that both were hastily assembled as Maidan government has little faith in the army after they surrendered/refused to fight several times.

[Gilrandir]

From what I've read, National Guard was formed at the beginning of the nineties and laid to rest by Kuchma in 2000. It was reactivated in March 2014. It is supposed to be a light infantry type of unit, under control of Interior Affairs.

I don't know what was the nature of the late National Guard, but National Guard 2.0 is just the renamed Internal Troops+volunteers. As to it being light is not ture (at least now). Recently they have been given heavy machinery including tanks and APCs.



Another big issue are Territorial Defense units, bulk ofwhich was also formed from volunteers post Maidan. They were under control of Interior Affairs as well, until recently when they were transferred to the Army, iirc.

The latter is not correct since some of them were transferred to (or originally were within) the Army system, others stayed under the Ministry of Interior and Right Sector battallion is outside either.


It seems that both were hastily assembled as Maidan government has little faith in the army after they surrendered/refused to fight several times.
As I have remarked, the latter is wrong, and I gave the reasons why.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

From what I've read, National Guard was formed at the beginning of the nineties and laid to rest by Kuchma in 2000. It was reactivated in March 2014. It is supposed to be a light infantry type of unit, under control of Interior Affairs.

Another big issue are Territorial Defense units, bulk ofwhich was also formed from volunteers post Maidan. They were under control of Interior Affairs as well, until recently when they were transferred to the Army, iirc. Just how big is their composition in the units fighting in the east I really don't know.

It seems that both were hastily assembled as Maidan government has little faith in the army after they surrendered/refused to fight several times.


Crucial point - the "Maidan Government" is no longer a thing - elections have been held (which the separatists prevented people from voting in) and now there is a new government.

As to revoking benefits for people in "New Russia" you can't have it both ways - right now Kiev is not getting taxes from there and the area isn't operating under Ukrainian Law. If they pay into people's bank accounts in those area etc. then the local "government" can tax those people and use the money to fund the war against Kiev.

So, clearly, paying pensions is not a good idea. It makes neither political nor strategic sense.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It is November 26th, and Vlad Putin still puts Russia first.

[Brenus]

"It makes neither political nor strategic sense." It does. It clearly indicates you don't consider the other side as your citizens. It is HUGE political mistake, probably of the same size than the will to join NATO, which make Putin's point very more valid, as it is what he was saying from the start. Well done Ukrainian government, you just validate your country's partition.

[Gilrandir]

"It makes neither political nor strategic sense." It does. It clearly indicates you don't consider the other side as your citizens. It is HUGE political mistake, probably of the same size than the will to join NATO, which make Putin's point very more valid, as it is what he was saying from the start. Well done Ukrainian government, you just validate your country's partition.
How can payments be ensured in Lugandon? Do you expect vehilces to transport money across the frontlines? In that case I'm sure it will never reach those it was meant for. So I repeat once again: the citizens from the territories that are not at the moment controlled by Ukraine can cross into the areas controlled by Ukraine and have all the payments. Or do you suggest Ukraine must finance Crimea as well?
Speaking of Putin the Fascist, does it redound to such a reputation if you finance nazis?
http://euobserver.com/foreign/126638

[Seamus Fermanagh]

28 November 2014
Vlad Putin still pursuing a Russian agenda for power and refusing to back down to repeated "you're a meanie" invective.

[Gilrandir]

Vlad Putin
In fact, Vlad is short for Vladislav, and short for Vladimir is Volodya or Vova.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

In fact, Vlad is short for Vladislav, and short for Vladimir is Volodya or Vova.

Gospodin, I speak 'murrican. Need to cut me some slack here.

[Kadagar_AV]

In fact, Vlad is short for Vladislav, and short for Vladimir is Volodya or Vova.

I always wondered about this... How eastern European languages have such weird nicknames...

I was together with a girl, Olcia... I could also call her Alex... WTF?? They are in no way related.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I always wondered about this... How eastern European languages have such weird nicknames...

I was together with a girl, Olcia... I could also call her Alex... WTF?? They are in no way related.

Jack is short for James.

Olcia - hard C right? I can see you getting "Alex" from that.

[Fragony]

I always wondered about this... How eastern European languages have such weird nicknames...

I was together with a girl, Olcia... I could also call her Alex... WTF?? They are in no way related.

second name, they give them there. Her name was probably Olcia Alex + surname

[Brenus]

"How can payments be ensured in Lugandon?" So, you agree that the money was never pay in reality, so it is a political stance endorsing the fact that the Ukrainian in Rebels lands are no more Ukrainian...?
You see, but, no you don't. you can't claim that Ukraine is one territory, and creating a apartheid. But, not the first time you don't see the obvious...

[Viking]

It will be interesting to see how far the Russian economy will go on its path to go belly up. It could have quite serious implications that go far beyond this conflict alone.


https://i.imgur.com/k97wD5j.jpg

[Gilrandir]

I always wondered about this... How eastern European languages have such weird nicknames...

I was together with a girl, Olcia... I could also call her Alex... WTF?? They are in no way related.
Perhaps it was Olga? Alex is short for Alexandra, typically shortened to Sasha or (guess what?) Shura.
Speaking of non related shortenings, I can give you some: Dick and Richard, Bob/Dob and Robert, Mary and Mamie/Molly, Mathilda /Martha and Patty,and my favorite Margaret and Peggy....


Gospodin, I speak 'murrican. Need to cut me some slack here.
"Gospodin" is Russian, the Ukrainian for it is "pan". Yes, you can call me that.:rolleyes:


"How can payments be ensured in Lugandon?" So, you agree that the money was never pay in reality, so it is a political stance endorsing the fact that the Ukrainian in Rebels lands are no more Ukrainian...?
You see, but, no you don't. you can't claim that Ukraine is one territory, and creating a apartheid. But, not the first time you don't see the obvious...
I never denied the fact that Ukraine can't control some of its territory, that is why the decision to suspend financing it was sensible. But the money is accumulated on special accounts and when/if Ukraine resumes control over the said areas the money will be paid.
But admitting the obvious (the loss of control) doesn't presuppose recognition of any kind of separate statehood of DPR, LPR, Novorossia or other quasi-formations.
Like Ukraine doesn't recognize that Crimea is no more a part of Ukraine yet it doesn't finance the peninsula.

[Gilrandir]

South Stream is history:
http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/dec/01/russia-blames-eu-as-it-abandons-plans-for-south-stream-gas-pipeline

[a completely inoffensive name]

How does that poem go? Oil, oil every where, nor any drop to sell...

[Gilrandir]

http://www.euronews.com/2014/12/02/ukraine-parliament-approves-foreigners-as-government-ministers/

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.euronews.com/2014/12/02/ukraine-parliament-approves-foreigners-as-government-ministers/

A Ukrainian-American, Lithuanian and a Georgian... it says something about how much the climate in Ukraine has changed. Whatever comes out of this I think that pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine is going to be unpopular for decades.

I don't suppose anyone can shed any light on why the Kremlin didn't see this coming?

[Gilrandir]

A Ukrainian-American, Lithuanian and a Georgian... it says something about how much the climate in Ukraine has changed. Whatever comes out of this I think that pro-Russian sentiment in Ukraine is going to be unpopular for decades.

I don't suppose anyone can shed any light on why the Kremlin didn't see this coming?
Pro-Kremlin media are sure to say something like:"We told you that the USA is behind all Ukrainian government does, now America (through its ex-citizen, the Georgian and - not unlikely - the Lithuanian) will rule Ukraine directly". RT has already called the ministries they will run "the key ones",though I don't see how Health care may be counted as one and, say, Defense, Exterior and Inerior are not.
The problem with the appointments might be that the new Ukrainians will find it hard to battle against the whole corrupt system and, realizing that, they will abandon their posts. To avoid this they will have to sack a lot of employees of the corresponding ministries and management of whole branches of economy which may again cause overt and covert opposition.

[Husar]

I don't suppose anyone can shed any light on why the Kremlin didn't see this coming?

It's fun to watch how you pro-westerners are desperate for approval from a distance.
Gilrandir already dreams up imaginary responses for him to refute, it's cute, but don't let it turn into complete madness.

But I will say that, while it's quite sad how the country does not seem to have appropriate talents of it's own, I applaud the flexibility.
Should have chosen a black person who was born in Russia for full flexibility, but this is a good first step.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It's fun to watch how you pro-westerners are desperate for approval from a distance.
Gilrandir already dreams up imaginary responses for him to refute, it's cute, but don't let it turn into complete madness.

It's what they're saying already, and it's not cute.


But I will say that, while it's quite sad how the country does not seem to have appropriate talents of it's own, I applaud the flexibility.
Should have chosen a black person who was born in Russia for full flexibility, but this is a good first step.

Well, what do you want?

Realists or Ukraine stuck in a Post-Communist system?

Surely, the Post-Communist country which has made the greatest strides in East Germany. Don't tell me that has nothing to do with the influence of a WEst German administration.

[Husar]

It's what they're saying already, and it's not cute.

Sometimes even a blind chicken finds some corn, as we say here.


Well, what do you want?

Realists or Ukraine stuck in a Post-Communist system?

Surely, the Post-Communist country which has made the greatest strides in East Germany. Don't tell me that has nothing to do with the influence of a WEst German administration.

Why do I have to want something? I said I applaud this effort and that's it. I do not want anything from them at this point.

The administration in East Germany was East German and now it is just German, although what is now German is closer to what West Germany was like since we basically bought East Germany. So are you saying that Ukraine should get West German ministers or just that native Ukrainians are unable to implement western-style administration and that they have to hire foreigners to get that?

[Gilrandir]

But I will say that, while it's quite sad how the country does not seem to have appropriate talents of it's own, I applaud the flexibility.

It is not about having/not having appropriate talents. When a Ukrainian reaches a top position he/she does it thanks to so many people, groups, parties that he/she is supposed to be grateful enough to pay them back. Unlike Ukrainians, foreigners who take some top positions are not imbedded into the Ukrainain society: they don't have any connections and relations, they don't have any business interests in Ukraine, they are not disturbed about their future political prospects thus they are not afraid of popularity drops, they don't owe anyone anything and they can have a balanced view of the situation.

[Husar]

It is not about having/not having appropriate talents. When a Ukrainian reaches a top position he/she does it thanks to so many people, groups, parties that he/she is supposed to be grateful enough to pay them back. Unlike Ukrainians, foreigners who take some top positions are not imbedded into the Ukrainain society: they don't have any connections and relations, they don't have any business interests in Ukraine, they are not disturbed about their future political prospects thus they are not afraid of popularity drops, they don't owe anyone anything and they can have a balanced view of the situation.

Or they will not serve the people well because they have no reason to. You can really see this both ways...

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Sometimes even a blind chicken finds some corn, as we say here.

USA version features a blind squirrel and an acorn.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Sometimes even a blind chicken finds some corn, as we say here.

So Gilrandir is a blind chicken?

Nice.

Well, if he is he's someone surrounded by corn in your analogy.


Why do I have to want something? I said I applaud this effort and that's it. I do not want anything from them at this point.

The administration in East Germany was East German and now it is just German, although what is now German is closer to what West Germany was like since we basically bought East Germany. So are you saying that Ukraine should get West German ministers or just that native Ukrainians are unable to implement western-style administration and that they have to hire foreigners to get that?

We all want something from this conflict, even if it's for it not to spread. With regards to East/West Germany what actually happened is that West Germany peacefully annexed East Germany. Today's federal German Government is the West German one.

This bears on Ukraine because all post-Communist countries are struggling to root out corruption, the restrictive anti-wealth Communist framework embedded it. Without legitimate ways to get rich people found illegitimate ones. Importing technocrats from other countries is as much about the whole government as it is about those ministries. It says two things.

1. If Russia is going to semi-covertly insert it's people into positions of power in the rebel regions we are going to overtly bring people Russia will object to into our government.

2. It says that the Ukrainian Executive can replace someone who is corrupt with someone else.

[Husar]

So Gilrandir is a blind chicken?

Nice.

[...]

2. It says that the Ukrainian Executive can replace someone who is corrupt with someone else.

First you make my expression look worse than it was and then you claim that they cannot find anyone in Ukraine who isn't corrupt.
Nice try...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

First you make my expression look worse than it was and then you claim that they cannot find anyone in Ukraine who isn't corrupt.
Nice try...

If all Ukrainian Politicians were hopelessly corrupt presumably they would have imported a bunch of Germans, and elected a German president - like Romania did.

[Gilrandir]

http://www.latimes.com/world/europe/la-fg-grozny-terrorist-attack-20141204-story.html

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zD-16bVsto0
Now will we hear from anyone on the forum or at large (especially Voldemort Put In) that Russia must negotiate with the peaceful locals and not infringe upon the rights of Chechen-speaking population? Will anyone call the Russian government "junta" after they enforced the law in Grozny?

[Gilrandir]

After the reported shoot out Ukrainian intelligence at least in one place in the ATO zone (in Luhansk region) informed about the withdrawal of several Chechen companies. It is explained by the probable order of Kadyrov to get back to Chechnya and help him deal with rebels.

[Kralizec]

It's December 6th and the Pope is catholic.

[a completely inoffensive name]

It's December 6th and the Pope is catholic.


Also Putin is a fascist.

[Viking]

I think Poroshenko should gift this place a proper station:

https://www.facebook.com/video.php?v=685178338265761

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Or just a proper siding.

[Brenus]

And the Siberian Tiger released by Putin is killing goats in China. What Evil Putin is!

[Gilrandir]

http://www.blueforcetracker.com/article/Pro-Ukraine-partisans-fight-back-in-Donetsk
And apart from that, ATO press officer spoke of other steps which have been and are being taken by pro-Ukrainian partisans in the area.

[Husar]

US may be heading towards provoking WW3 after having helped in overthrowing the former government of Ukraine, says foreign policy expert Dr. Ron Paul:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/reckless-congress-declares-war-on-russia/5418287


The resolution (paragraph 11) accuses the people in east Ukraine of holding “fraudulent and illegal elections” in November. Why is it that every time elections do not produce the results desired by the US government they are called “illegal” and “fraudulent”? Aren’t the people of eastern Ukraine allowed self-determination? Isn’t that a basic human right?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

US may be heading towards provoking WW3 after having helped in overthrowing the former government of Ukraine, says foreign policy expert Dr. Ron Paul:

http://www.globalresearch.ca/reckless-congress-declares-war-on-russia/5418287

Potatoes for votes.

As I said - if the rebels laid downs arms and held an actual referendum after proper discussions of the context of the question, that would be different.

Even in Crimea people didn't ACTUALLY vote to join Russia, they voted to revert to a constitution that allowed their regional parliament to join Russia. This was done under a law which was itself illegal as many of the MP's recorded as voting weren't there.

[Viking]

US may be heading towards provoking WW3 after having helped in overthrowing the former government of Ukraine, says foreign policy expert Dr. Ron Paul:

I am also a foreign policy expert.

[Gilrandir]

On how nazi Azov are (sorry it's in Russian, no English translation I know of):
http://fakty.ua/192310-komandir-evrejskoj-sotni-majdana-teper-spasaet-bojcov-v-zone-ato
This one is in English, however:
http://www.mnogovbloge.com/?p=8365&lang=en

[Gilrandir]

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/article/513061.html

[Greyblades]

Dang, I would have loved to see that on top of the london shard.

[Viking]

https://i.imgur.com/Tx4zap9.png

Short circuit.

[Gilrandir]

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/240021.html
http://euromaidanpress.com/2014/12/13/putin-may-face-hague-trial-donbas-separatist-leader/
https://news.pn/en/RussiaInvadedUkraine/121155
http://www.mk.ru/politics/2014/12/15/boris-rapoport-uzhe-v2013m-v-priemnoy-surkova-visela-karta-na-kotoroy-krym-byl-chastyu-rossii.html, in which the former deputy of Russian President's Administration says (among other things) that his boss Surkov had in his office a map of Russia hanging on the wall with Crimea as a part of it as far back as 2013.

[drone]

https://i.imgur.com/Tx4zap9.png

Short circuit.

The ruble appears to be having issues. Interest rate jacked up to 17% and it's still in free fall. It's December 16th, and Putin may still be a fascist, but he's a fascist in charge of a crumbling economy. Low oil prices have Russia burning through their foreign reserves. So, umm, yeah fracking!?!

While it might be fun to watch Putin squirm, I have a feeling this is going to get ugly.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I hope the Russian people forcefully remove Putin out of the Kremlin on Christmas Day. This is what happens when you go all in on basing your entire economy and power off of commodities.

[Papewaio]

Sanctions do have an effect.

Problem is this is a world economy so sanctions are a case of cutting off ones own nose.

Mind you this is also a preview of what will happen when more nations go nuclear power. The oil producing nations will then have to value add to their products whilst experiencing an economic crunch.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

The ruble appears to be having issues. Interest rate jacked up to 17% and it's still in free fall. It's December 16th, and Putin may still be a fascist, but he's a fascist in charge of a crumbling economy. Low oil prices have Russia burning through their foreign reserves. So, umm, yeah fracking!?!

While it might be fun to watch Putin squirm, I have a feeling this is going to get ugly.

Off-shore wells in the Gulf of Mexico ftw?


Sanctions do have an effect.

Problem is this is a world economy so sanctions are a case of cutting off ones own nose.

Mind you this is also a preview of what will happen when more nations go nuclear power. The oil producing nations will then have to value add to their products whilst experiencing an economic crunch.

It's not entirely true that sanctions have had no effect - the reciprocal tit-for tat has isolated Russia's other sectors from important markets in Europe and the US - this has driven up prices for commodities whilst reducing the profits of domestic producers (because they can only sell domestically) and that has helped to drive inflation - that has resulted in a punitive rate rise and now we are starting to see Capital Flight.

So sanctions have had an effect - they have reduced the ability of Russia to respond to the drop in oil prices.

Edit: And I missed my overall point.

Viz. Russia is one country (albeit a large one) and no where near the size of Europe and the US - so it hurts Russia more than us.

Even so, it looks like Russia has about ten months of reserves before they get into real trouble. That means Putin has about six to nine months to solve his problem, or for the price of oil to rise.

So the question is how much the Ukrainian military can dig in before the winter is over. Around February or March the rebels are likely to try a new offensive. If Russia is by then less keen to finance them then the Ukrainians may be able to hold ground long enough to break the offensive. If Ukraine goes on offensive then they'll lose, but if they don't then the Rebellion may run out of steam. Sooner or later rebel infrastructure will start to break down unless they can get a real economy going, and with only Russia to export to they may have no one to sell to when Russia is broke.

Of course, Putin may run the opposite calculation - if Russia's economy is tanking he will want to divert attention from that or find a way to blame the West - backing the Rebel offensive will trigger more sanctions and give him at least a semi-plausible cover for Russia's economic ills.

All of which means things are getting a lot worse for everyone before they get better.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Off-shore wells in the Gulf of Mexico ftw?

Actually it is more due to Canada and the American midwest (think Dakotas not Iowa) than anything else. Shale oil is only economically profitable when you reach prices close to what they were before the free fall (around $100 a barrel). The real story going on here is whether or not Obama made a deal with Saudi Arabia and other OPEC countries to purposely keep supply of oil high in order to bankrupt Russia. While many OPEC countries are in the same situation as Russia (their budgets depend on $100 a barrel) they also have large amounts of money stored and in return for burning some of their reserves they are attempting to secure their dominance in the market by making sure that shale oil production is halted or rolled back in the US and Canada.

I guess the winner depends on who can stretch their reserves out the longest, Russia or Saudi Arabia?

Also, one last thing PVC, just because Russia has 10 months of reserves, does not mean he has 10 months of time to regroup. The Ruble is continuing to crash and Russian citizens will be almost completely swept away in inflation by the end of January if this same downward trend continues. The currency crash should not be downplayed. If the news I read is accurate, this is the biggest crash since 1998 which ended up in Russia defaulting. Apparently, the west bailed them out back then but now who does Putin have on his side?

[Gilrandir]

I hope the Russian people forcefully remove Putin out of the Kremlin on Christmas Day. This is what happens when you go all in on basing your entire economy and power off of commodities.
As far as I can judge, Russian people blame not Putin, but the West. Russian propaganda makes sure that, whatever Putin does, the USA is ultimately the villain guilty of all Russia's setbacks.


Sooner or later rebel infrastructure will start to break down unless they can get a real economy going, and with only Russia to export to they may have no one to sell to when Russia is broke.

Rebels don't need any infrastructure since all they need for war they get from Russia. Infrastructure is neccessary for the people of the rebel-held areas to somehow keep afloat. The rebels can do without it as long as:
1. Russia goes on supplying them just enough to keep the civilians on the verge of hunger.
2. Russia goes on supplying them military-wise to keep hold of the civilians who might protest.
3. Local and Russian propaganda goes on feeding civilians with terrifying news of Ukrainian punitive soldiers massacring locals en masse.



I guess the winner depends on who can stretch their reserves out the longest, Russia or Saudi Arabia?

The answer is evident since the sheikhs invest (or save) the money they get from selling oil and it eventually finds the way to the people's pockets, while in Russia the money gets embezzled and/or goes to the pockets of oligarchs who are not likely to share with the rest of the population.
Edit: want a bet?
http://www.paddypower.com/bet/politics/other-politics/world-politics?ev_oc_grp_ids=1974697

[Gilrandir]

http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/240450.html

[Gilrandir]

I somehow sense a change in the behavior of the Lugandon leaders. For approximately 2 weeks they have been displaying an unusual eagerness (so different from their previous reluctance for any compromises) for a new meeting in Minsk. Kyiv, on the contrary, seems to be playing for time being in no hurry to resume negotiations claiming (through Kuchma and thus off the record) that there is no use in a new meeting since the previous agreement's stipulations were not observed by the separatists. Another news (well, rather a rumor) that "the president of DPR" Zakharchenko (who has been missed since December 1) is held house-arrested by Russian secret service. Could there be any connection between the two events? Or can the ruble collapse have pushed the separatists (or rather their Moscow supervisors) to something other than shelling and mud-slinging Ukrainian military?

[CrossLOPER]

As far as I can judge, Russian people blame not Putin, but the West. Russian propaganda makes sure that, whatever Putin does, the USA is ultimately the villain guilty of all Russia's setbacks.

The western propaganda makes you believe this.

[Gilrandir]

The western propaganda makes you believe this.
If we don't take into account the Ukrainian sources I'm more exposed to Russian ones, the western propaganda reaches me only as a faint echo. Like this one:http://www.israelnationalnews.com/News/News.aspx/188881

[Gilrandir]

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2014/12/18/statement-president-ukraine-freedom-support-act
I wonder what implications it may have.

[Gilrandir]

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2014-12-22/leaders-agree-on-more-ukraine-peace-talks-for-contact-group-1-.html

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Yes - Ukraine is now officially no longer "non-aligned."

This is a direct result of Russian-sponsored terrorism. Russia will blame the West and ramp things up but, really, what else can the Ukrainians do?

Assuming Russia bites off another chunk of the country (possible given Crimea) it's going to be increasingly difficult to safeguard the remainder without NATO.

[a completely inoffensive name]

I can't wait for Putin's regime to experience December 1991 all over again.

[Gilrandir]

Some update on the issue:
http://windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2014/12/window-on-eurasia-red-cross-official.html
http://telegraf.com.ua/ukraina/mestnyiy/1655146-sbu-perehvatila-sekretnyie-peregovoryi-boevikov.html
The second features an intercepted conversation of Dryomov, one of the heads of LNR cossacks who claims to have personally talked to Medvedev. The latter promised all kinds of help, primarily the military one. Dryomov is boasting that Medvedev has given him his personal telephone number and is still astonished that such an insignificant man as he deems himself to be got direct access to the Russian prime minister.
The general trend of the last two weeks is replacement or annihilation of unruly separatists and gathering the occupied area under one hand.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/volokh-conspiracy/wp/2015/01/02/batman-killed-in-the-ukraine-allegedly-on-orders-from-the-carpenter/
https://news.pn/en/RussiaInvadedUkraine/122614

[GenosseGeneral]

I can't wait for Putin's regime to experience December 1991 all over again.

Well, it would likely bring those into power whom we as the West do not want there, hawkish members of the vast Russian security apparatus for instance. Do not expect the economic-liberal faction inside the Russian political elite to succeed in a violent struggle for power. I think the world is better of with Putin than with a 'silovik' (term for members of the security apparatus) ruling Russia.

The worst outcome would be what was narrowly avoided in 1991 and 1993: anarchy in a country with a stockpile of several thousand nuclear warheads. Even the most hawkish hardliner in D.C. and Brussels should see that it cannot be the West's interest to 'put Russia on its knees'.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Well, it would likely bring those into power whom we as the West do not want there, hawkish members of the vast Russian security apparatus for instance. Do not expect the economic-liberal faction inside the Russian political elite to succeed in a violent struggle for power. I think the world is better of with Putin than with a 'silovik' (term for members of the security apparatus) ruling Russia.

The worst outcome would be what was narrowly avoided in 1991 and 1993: anarchy in a country with a stockpile of several thousand nuclear warheads. Even the most hawkish hardliner in D.C. and Brussels should see that it cannot be the West's interest to 'put Russia on its knees'.

Putin is a hawkish member of the vast Russian security apparatus.

Also, nobody wants Russia on it's knees - they just want Russia out of Ukraine, and Georgia, and Moldova.

Furthermore, Putin's stategy has done nothing but alienate the countries Russia meddles in. It's a case of griping sand so tightly it slips through your fingers.

[Gilrandir]

I think the world is better of with Putin than with a 'silovik' (term for members of the security apparatus) ruling Russia.

Putin with his KGB background is a silovik himself.
On last hours of Yanukovych as a president:
http://www.nytimes.com/2015/01/04/world/europe/ukraine-leader-was-defeated-even-before-he-was-ousted.html?_r=0

[a completely inoffensive name]

It is January 5th, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.

[Husar]

It is January 5th, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.

Not in most of Asia and Australia.

[Gilrandir]

Some thought provoking reading: http://www.unian.info/world/1029303-journalist-putin-may-aim-to-capture-strategic-aland-islands.html
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/beer-ads-return-to-russian-stadiums-television-for-world-cup/503044.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2014/12/19/opinion/paul-krugman-putins-bubble-bursts.html?_r=0
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/comment/is-no-one-in-the-west-trying-to-do-a-deal-with-putin-9955854.html

[Gilrandir]

What Russia looks like today:14826
And an extract from a menu in Russia: 14827
In Russian it says "Ukrainian borsch", but English-speakers mustn't know it is Ukrainian.
And one more curious development:
http://www.newsweek.com/fourth-russian-general-commits-suicide-less-year-297055

[CrossLOPER]

What Russia looks like today:14826
And an extract from a menu in Russia: 14827
You are getting desperate.

In Russian it says "Ukrainian borsch", but English-speakers mustn't know it is Ukrainian.
Because Americans know what comprises a Ukrainian dish. Right? Those pesky Indians in the nearby town doing the same thing with their dishes is an outrage!

And one more curious development:
http://www.newsweek.com/fourth-russian-general-commits-suicide-less-year-297055
Not sure what this has to do with anything.

[Gilrandir]

Because Americans know what comprises a Ukrainian dish. Right? Those pesky Indians in the nearby town doing the same thing with their dishes is an outrage!

It's not about ingredients (they are the same), it is about the name. Why change it?



Not sure what this has to do with anything.
Who knows...

[Husar]

It's not about ingredients (they are the same), it is about the name. Why change it?

A Bolshevik-jew conspiracy!
Plenty of people think it is Russian anyway, maybe they wanted to use the chance to present both points of view for a fair and balanced menu card.

[CrossLOPER]

It's not about ingredients (they are the same), it is about the name. Why change it?
You are looking into it too deeply. I am sure the genocide of the Ukrainian people will not start with borsch.

Who knows...
What does the liver say today?

[Gilrandir]

Plenty of people think it is Russian anyway, maybe they wanted to use the chance to present both points of view for a fair and balanced menu card.
Funny that one point is in Russian, another in English. That is for inner consumption it is a Ukrainian dish, for foreigners it is a Russian. Lost in translation?

[Husar]

Funny that one point is in Russian, another in English. That is for inner consumption it is a Ukrainian dish, for foreigners it is a Russian. Lost in translation?

Yes, it will even out once Russia joins the EU. ~;)

[a completely inoffensive name]

Can some one explain to me what the "western" propaganda has told me about Russia and Putin? After months of following this thread I still don't understand the case that Putin is somehow not a terrible person who is implementing aggressive expansionist policies.

[Montmorency]

Well, the terrible person part goes without saying, and doesn't add much to any discussion. I mean, even FDR was a terrible person, and he's one of the greatest leaders who ever lived.

Nevertheless, :thumbsup:

[Husar]

Can some one explain to me what the "western" propaganda has told me about Russia and Putin? After months of following this thread I still don't understand the case that Putin is somehow not a terrible person who is implementing aggressive expansionist policies.

Because you actually believe all the western propaganda that there are supposedly russian soldiers in eastern ukraine and all these other lies about weapon convoys etc. None of which was proven and much of which was fake. Plenty of german citizens raised plenty of formal protest against these lies with german public TV stations. The TV stations ignored most of it, crying as though all these formal protests stopped them from working.

There is plenty of controversy about little things the media just didn't mention or unbased assumptions they made:
https://krautreporter.de/270--beschwerden-im-akkord-wie-eine-selbst-ernannte-zuschauervertretung-ard-und-zdf-zusetzt

It's all in German, unfortunately for you, the complaints are listed below the article and include the following:

A report claimed to show a picture of how russian tanks supposedly drive through a city under the eyes of media people.
Complaint: It's actually an archive picture from Caucasus 2008.
Reaction: Mistake has been corrected, apology on Twitter, it was just a slip-up.

A reporter claims two people were killed by separatists in Krasnoarmeysk.
Complaint: Actually the two people were killed by ukrainian soldiers, conclusive proof for which can be found on the internet.
Reaction: The mistake was admitted, they had to apologize and removed the original report.

There was also something about "captured russian tanks" where people complained because those were obviously ukrainian tanks and so on. Quite a few of the complaints are about minor details or strange/bogus complaints, but there are quite a few people who think our media are inherently biased on the issue and rather report the anti-Putin spin on the issue even when the situation isn't quite that black and white. Needless to say, the USA have also not managed to make a lot of friends around the world, don't get me started on what some south americans and others post on Facebook and some people think the US are just using Europe to further their own goals while Europe will have to take the brunt of the damage. Which is also an issue regarding TTIP, which will, according to some analyses, destroy a lot of jobs in Europe and create a lot in the USA. Now you may say the USA have a right to care only about themselves, but then I'll reply that Europeans have the same right in return. And that's why some here would prefer a cooperation with Russia rather than the USA. Obviously the 51st state is a special island and doesn't belong to Europe according to itself anyway.

Oh yeah, remember that time when there was conclusive proof for Iraqi WMDs all over the western media (supplied by the US) and Putin said they don't have any?
Credibility is not something you get by writing "good guy" onto your jackboots.

[Viking]

None of which was proven

We even have names of such (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11314817/Secret-dead-of-Russias-undeclared-war.html) Russian soldiers.


Anton Tumanov gave up his life for his country - but his country won’t say where, and it won’t say how.

His mother knows. She knows that Mr Tumanov, a 20 year-old junior sergeant in the Russian army, was killed in eastern Ukraine, torn apart in a rocket attack on August 13.

Yelena Tumanova, 41, learned these bare facts about her son’s death from one of his comrades, who saw him get hit and scooped up his body.


His death certificate, signed at a defence ministry forensic-medicine centre in Rostov-on-Don in southwest Russia on August 18, records that he died from an “explosion injury”, receiving “multiple shrapnel wounds to the lower limbs” that resulted in “acute, massive blood loss”. The certificate leaves unticked a box saying the cause of his injuries was “military hostilities”, preferring instead “origin not established”.

If 'proof' to you is Putin saying that he died there, then good luck.

[CrossLOPER]

Can some one explain to me what the "western" propaganda has told me about Russia and Putin? After months of following this thread I still don't understand the case that Putin is somehow not a terrible person who is implementing aggressive expansionist policies.
Context is a thing for the headsick.

[Husar]

We even have names of such (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/russia/11314817/Secret-dead-of-Russias-undeclared-war.html) Russian soldiers.

If 'proof' to you is Putin saying that he died there, then good luck.

Yeah, but it's not Putin's fault what they do there in their free time.

[Viking]

Yeah, but it's not Putin's fault what they do there in their free time.

Well, yes. It was a French beach holiday by allied soldiers that was the beginning of the end for Hitler.

[Gilrandir]

Because you actually believe all the western propaganda that there are supposedly russian soldiers in eastern ukraine and all these other lies about weapon convoys etc. None of which was proven and much of which was fake.

So when in late August the separatists were beaten on all fronts and liberation of Donbas was a question of a couple of weeks (admitted by Girkin himself - sure, you believe HIM?), all of a sudden they, alone and unaided, launched a prodigious counter attack and encircled Ukrainian army at Ilovaysk, evicted them from Savur Mohyla and expelled from Luhansk, some districts of which had been already under Ukrainian control.
I saw weather(and not only weather)-beaten soldiers - and I have no reason not to trust them - who said they were negotiating withdrawal of the encircled troops with RUSSIAN OFFICERS, who were procrastinating for quite a while expecting orders "from high above", as they put it.
And earlier, the storming of the central police department in Kramatorsk was done by untrained Ukrainan rebels?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLX8KlgmUN8
I have already mentioned a special accent and a shibboleth revealing their Russian origin.
But, you are expecting Putin's speech which would directly claim the presence of his troops in Ukraine. Well, he may do it some day. In his memoirs.
As for the convoys, every time a new one arrives Ukrainian soldiers report more intense shelling of their positions. The last one was in Ukraine a couple of days ago and today the quantity of shellings was twice as much and four soldiers were killed.


There was also something about "captured russian tanks" where people complained because those were obviously ukrainian tanks and so on.

Yes, sure, all the tanks, BMWs, BMPs, and other vehicles as well as ammo are being mined by the separatists in weapon-rich deposits under fertile Donbas soil. Or, as an option, they constantly capture/recieve new ones from the Ukrainians, then take them to Russia and then to Ukraine again. The latter event was more than once detected by OSCE missions.


Oh yeah, remember that time when there was conclusive proof for Iraqi WMDs all over the western media (supplied by the US) and Putin said they don't have any?

Oh yeah, remember that time when Putin said there weren't any Russian soldiers in Crimea and then admitted it. Thus, we must believe whatever he is saying and will say in future.

Here is what options Soros sees for European strategy on Ukraine (and Russia).
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/feb/05/new-policy-rescue-ukraine/

[Montmorency]

Well, yes. It was a French beach holiday by allied soldiers that was the beginning of the end for Hitler.

This is proven false by the fact that the bulk of them chose Normandy over the Riviera.

[Husar]

So when in late August the separatists were beaten on all fronts and liberation of Donbas was a question of a couple of weeks (admitted by Girkin himself - sure, you believe HIM?), all of a sudden they, alone and unaided, launched a prodigious counter attack and encircled Ukrainian army at Ilovaysk, evicted them from Savur Mohyla and expelled from Luhansk, some districts of which had been already under Ukrainian control.
I saw weather(and not only weather)-beaten soldiers - and I have no reason not to trust them - who said they were negotiating withdrawal of the encircled troops with RUSSIAN OFFICERS, who were procrastinating for quite a while expecting orders "from high above", as they put it.
And earlier, the storming of the central police department in Kramatorsk was done by untrained Ukrainan rebels?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RLX8KlgmUN8
I have already mentioned a special accent and a shibboleth revealing their Russian origin.
But, you are expecting Putin's speech which would directly claim the presence of his troops in Ukraine. Well, he may do it some day. In his memoirs.
As for the convoys, every time a new one arrives Ukrainian soldiers report more intense shelling of their positions. The last one was in Ukraine a couple of days ago and today the quantity of shellings was twice as much and four soldiers were killed.

Russia wants to save the russian nationals just like the US tried in Iran and so on. It's just easier for Russia when it's right next to their border. All the big nations do this if they can. Ukrainian soldiers and other government agencies are always trustworthy for you, but to think they have no agenda/reason to lie would be rather naive, no?
I could also claim that we almost had the Russians when we were in front of Moscow and then suddenly they had new men and drove us back. Maybe your army overstretched and didn't resupply properly, then blamed Russia for their failure to secure their advances. I mean there was hardly an army left at all when this conflict started, but now they're supposedly all professionals.


Yes, sure, all the tanks, BMWs, BMPs, and other vehicles as well as ammo are being mined by the separatists in weapon-rich deposits under fertile Donbas soil. Or, as an option, they constantly capture/recieve new ones from the Ukrainians, then take them to Russia and then to Ukraine again. The latter event was more than once detected by OSCE missions.

The OSCE is a NATO-tool, the "army" probably lost them or they switched sides and it's covered up with propaganda about russian involvement.


Oh yeah, remember that time when Putin said there weren't any Russian soldiers in Crimea and then admitted it. Thus, we must believe whatever he is saying and will say in future.

Here is what options Soros sees for European strategy on Ukraine (and Russia).
http://www.nybooks.com/articles/archives/2015/feb/05/new-policy-rescue-ukraine/

Soros is a capitalist from the US, so much about reliable sources.
Putin only sent Russian soldiers to bring security to the island after local self-defense groups had already begun by themselves.


This is proven false by the fact that the bulk of them chose Normandy over the Riviera.

A lot of the British and US soldiers probably had ancestors from there, I hear they like to trace their family trees in these countries. This could also explain why Russian soldiers go to Ukraine in their free time.

[Montmorency]

A lot of the British and US soldiers probably had ancestors from there

Don't be so Anglo-normative.

[Ice]

Husar, are you trolling? I honestly can't tell.

[Husar]

Husar, are you trolling? I honestly can't tell.

A little bit perhaps, every discussion needs a devil's advocate or it turns into a circlejerk of groupthink,. no? ~;)

[Gilrandir]

Ukrainian soldiers and other government agencies are always trustworthy for you, but to think they have no agenda/reason to lie would be rather naive, no?

If the evidence comes from multiple mouths then no. People from voluntary battalions, army and intelligence gave pretty much the same picture of negotiations with Russian army officers at Ilovaysk. But, perhaps it again is no proof for you, so keep believing the outstanding ability of BMP-driven russian soldiers to lose themselves 20 km deep from the border.


I could also claim that we almost had the Russians when we were in front of Moscow and then suddenly they had new men and drove us back.

The USSR had had then the territory and human resources to draw reinforcements from. The Lugandon territory was shrinking every day, so the same logics doesn't apply here.


Maybe your army overstretched and didn't resupply properly, then blamed Russia for their failure to secure their advances.

It couldn't have happened on all fronts, especially in the south where there were NO SEPARATISTS' FORCES ALTOGETHER.



The OSCE is a NATO-tool, the "army" probably lost them or they switched sides and it's covered up with propaganda about russian involvement.

And keeps losing and losing ammo and weapons every day. And all of them brand new ones produced within the last year or two with accompanying documents referring them to certain detachments of Russian regular army. And this one also came from Ukranian depots:
https://mh17.correctiv.org/english/



Soros is a capitalist from the US, so much about reliable sources.

It is not about reliabilty, it is a reading to consider.
Perhaps, this is mor reliable for you:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/01/09/a-sober-snowden-deems-life-in-russia-great/?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

[Husar]

The USSR had had then the territory and human resources to draw reinforcements from. The Lugandon territory was shrinking every day, so the same logics doesn't apply here.

the Russian terrirtory was also shrinking every day, it just wasn't shrinking fast enough, just like Lugandon wasn't shrinking fast enough before the Russians came to help.


If the evidence comes from multiple mouths then no. People from voluntary battalions, army and intelligence gave pretty much the same picture of negotiations with Russian army officers at Ilovaysk. But, perhaps it again is no proof for you, so keep believing the outstanding ability of BMP-driven russian soldiers to lose themselves 20 km deep from the border.

It couldn't have happened on all fronts, especially in the south where there were NO SEPARATISTS' FORCES ALTOGETHER.

And keeps losing and losing ammo and weapons every day. And all of them brand new ones produced within the last year or two with accompanying documents referring them to certain detachments of Russian regular army. And this one also came from Ukranian depots:
https://mh17.correctiv.org/english/

A lot of claims by NATO experts and Ukrainian soldiers, just because there are many people with good reasons to lie, there is no reason to believe their every word.


It is not about reliabilty, it is a reading to consider.
Perhaps, this is mor reliable for you:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/01/09/a-sober-snowden-deems-life-in-russia-great/?Post+generic=%3Ftid%3Dsm_twitter_washingtonpost

So you admit that reliability or accuracy of information is of no concern for you?
And why would life in Russia not be great for a middle-aged, well-off straight guy?

[Gilrandir]

the Russian terrirtory was also shrinking every day, it just wasn't shrinking fast enough, just like Lugandon wasn't shrinking fast enough before the Russians came to help.
A lot of claims by NATO experts and Ukrainian soldiers, just because there are many people with good reasons to lie, there is no reason to believe their every word.

You know perfectly well the size of the USSR left unoccupied by Germans in 1941. Compare it with the size Lugandon had in late August last year and you will have your answer.
But, I'm not going to start all over again what has been discussed for quite a time here as word-bandying will yeild no result. The only thing that brings me comfort is the word "Lugandon" you used. So subconsciously you expressed your attitude to the subject of discussion.


So you admit that reliability or accuracy of information is of no concern for you?


As for the Soros article, since it offers his vision on the FUTURE development of the situation, it is irrelevant. It is the personal view of a well-known and experienced politician whose opinion may be interesting to know and (considering his influence) not a thing to be disregarded.
If you speak of the MH17 article, I don't see why it is not reliable or accurate.

[Husar]

You know perfectly well the size of the USSR left unoccupied by Germans in 1941. Compare it with the size Lugandon had in late August last year and you will have your answer.
But, I'm not going to start all over again what has been discussed for quite a time here as word-bandying will yeild no result. The only thing that brings me comfort is the word "Lugandon" you used. So subconsciously you expressed your attitude to the subject of discussion.

You also say Lugandon, I just copied that. What you missed was the elephant in the room and that wasn't subconscious, that was left there on purpose. ~;)


As for the Soros article, since it offers his vision on the FUTURE development of the situation, it is irrelevant. It is the personal view of a well-known and experienced politician whose opinion may be interesting to know and (considering his influence) not a thing to be disregarded.
If you speak of the MH17 article, I don't see why it is not reliable or accurate.

Sometimes people "predict" the future they want instead of the future that would happen if the future they predict didn't turn out to be a self-fulfilling prophecy just because they predicted it and everybody believes them and acts accordingly.
If I predict today that Russia will strike the US tomorrow and the US launch nuclear bombers to circle near the russian border because I'm so reliable, then maybe Russia will actually strike tomorrow, but not because they were going to anyway, but because the bombers were sent there due to my "prediction". An extreme example, but predictions can have that effect, if perhaps on a smaller scale.

MH-17 was shot down by a ukrainian aircraft that can't even fly that high, this was proven long ago by a random german airline pilot. I argued that it was a SAM at the time but thankfully people forget so fast. :rolleyes:

[Gilrandir]

If I predict today that Russia will strike the US tomorrow and the US launch nuclear bombers to circle near the russian border because I'm so reliable, then maybe Russia will actually strike tomorrow, but not because they were going to anyway, but because the bombers were sent there due to my "prediction".
If you have the money and influence of Soros, one should take such predictions seriously. But, hey, who can say you don't. Perhaps we are talking to... oh God, George, is that you? :dizzy2:


I argued that it was a SAM at the time but thankfully people forget so fast.
Specify what you mean by SAM. I have several options to Offer: System for Awards Management, Supplier Approval Module, Space Available Mail, Self Adjusting Matress, Smart Assed Masochist...

[Husar]

Specify what you mean by SAM. I have several options to Offer: System for Awards Management, Supplier Approval Module, Space Available Mail, Self Adjusting Matress, Smart Assed Masochist...

I think it was a Ukrainian Self Adjusting Matress.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I think it was a Ukrainian Self Adjusting Matress.

....and what would the p0rn industry be without those?

[Gilrandir]

....and what would the p0rn industry be without those?
Change Ukrainian into German and you have nailed it.

[Gilrandir]

If you have the money and influence of Soros, one should take such predictions seriously. But, hey, who can say you don't. Perhaps we are talking to... oh God, George, is that you? :dizzy2:

And now he is in Kyiv.
http://en.cyplive.com/ru/news/dzhordzh-soros-pribyl-v-kiev.html

[Gilrandir]

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2015/01/11/is-this-the-end-of-putin-s-new-russia-fantasy.html

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Change Ukrainian into German and you have nailed it.

Not planning to personally nail ANYONE connected with that industry.

[Kralizec]

Well, yes. It was a French beach holiday by allied soldiers that was the beginning of the end for Hitler.

Indeed. Just like how in the Korean war the communist north managed to turn the tide in the middle of the summer. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourists, all eager to lend a hand.

[Ironside]

Indeed. Just like how in the Korean war the communist north managed to turn the tide in the middle of the summer. Hundreds of thousands of Chinese tourists, all eager to lend a hand.

With the high command's explicit approval. Actively state employed troops doing that would be prosecuted for desertion otherwise.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

With the high command's explicit approval. Actively state employed troops doing that would be prosecuted for desertion otherwise.

But they were "volunteers!" They simply happened to volunteer in organized units inherited from the PLA. They were a separate force {see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/People%27s_Volunteer_Army} entirely....

:rolleyes:

[Strike For The South]

It is January 13th, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.

[CrossLOPER]

It is January 13th, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.






You accidentally failed to use comic sans.

[Husar]

It's January 14th here.

[Strike For The South]

You are just fufilling you're German duty to be attracted to an autocart. Putin gets things done therefore he is good.

I pity you

[Seamus Fermanagh]

It's January 14th here.

Not at the time he posted, even in Dresden it was still the 13th.

So put that in your asynchronous pipe and smoke it.

[Husar]

You are just fufilling you're German duty to be attracted to an autocart. Putin gets things done therefore he is good.

I pity you

Yes, I am German duty and I love autocarts, bit auto lovers everywhere here.
But can you show me where I said Putin is good?


Not at the time he posted, even in Dresden it was still the 13th.

So put that in your asynchronous pipe and smoke it.

You may not believe it, but I was aware of that, there is a little timestamp above every post after all.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

...You may not believe it, but I was aware of that, there is a little timestamp above every post after all.

Oh heavens, Husar, did I need to put brackets on it? It was a bit of a sophomoric joke response. Cross Loper termed it "sub-sophomoric" which I think a bit harsh, but may also be accurate.

Never have doubted your intelligence even though you and I do not always agree on things. I assure you I was trying for 'silly' not 'insulting.'

[Husar]

Oh heavens, Husar, did I need to put brackets on it? It was a bit of a sophomoric joke response. Cross Loper termed it "sub-sophomoric" which I think a bit harsh, but may also be accurate.

Never have doubted your intelligence even though you and I do not always agree on things. I assure you I was trying for 'silly' not 'insulting.'

I have to fail as well sometimes, it reminds me that I'm still human. :drama2:

Can't even remember what I wanted to write instead of "bit" in response to Strike either. I violated my own rule of not posting shortly after I wake up and deserve to get punished for it. :whip:

[GenosseGeneral]

An interesting study into the role of domestic and national identities in Russia's foreign policy towards its "near abroad", despite certain shortcomings:

Identity, legitimacy, and the use of military force:
Russia’s Great Power identities and military intervention
in Abkhazia
TED HOPF
Review of International Studies / Volume 31 / Supplement S1 / December 2005, pp 225 - 243


If you are really interested and do not have access to the publication via institutions, pm me.

[Gilrandir]

Last two weeks have witnessed the intensification of fighting in ATO. Separatists started the offensive, especially harsh fighting is going on in Donetsk airport. And one more alarming news:
http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2014/07/08/lugansk-peoples-republic-to-create-own-air-force.html
What could such stepping up of the war mean?

Curious ruminations on correlation between oil prices and Russia's foregn policy.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/freeexchange/2015/01/oil-price-and-russian-politics

[Gilrandir]

http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/ea2c7538-6c16-11e4-b939-00144feabdc0.html#axzz3PcnnbY3T

[Gilrandir]

The current stage of the conflict:
https://uk.news.yahoo.com/ukraine-says-russian-terrorists-launch-offensive-094150168.html#StcbPRd

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I just don't see Ukraine holding the disputed territory. I am wondering how much more they lose before Putin, er, the rebels reach their absorption limit.

[Viking]

That absorption limit is the same as for the Russian armed forces - which is probably somewhere halfway through Poland.

[GenosseGeneral]

According to Ukrainian MoD the separatists have begun a fully fledged attack on all fronts today, which began with a massive bombardment of Mariupol. There had been certain indicators for this the week before, most notably the Ukrainian army loosing Donetsk ariport meanwhile separatist leader Sakharchenko declared that "the DNR will free the whole Donetsk Oblast'".

Give peace a chance? Not today.

Pictures taken in Mariupol this morning. The last number I read were 27 dead and about a hundred wounded, almost exlusively civilians.
WARNING: Content might be graphic.
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/3470533-maryupol-podverhsia-massyrovannomu-obstrelu-fotoreportazh

[Gilrandir]

According to Ukrainian MoD the separatists have begun a fully fledged attack on all fronts today, which began with a massive bombardment of Mariupol. There had been certain indicators for this the week before, most notably the Ukrainian army loosing Donetsk ariport meanwhile separatist leader Sakharchenko declared that "the DNR will free the whole Donetsk Oblast'".

Moreover, Zakharchenko announced that their next target is Mariupol and the same time renounced responsibility for the shelling.
Some experts say that the all-out offensive is crawling on on all fronts rather than a series of heavy strokes. So the real purpose of it is not military so much, but provoking panic and protests within Ukraine to change the current government and (as the best outcome for Russia) a new Maidan which will ultimately break the country. Putin's need for speed is explained by the harm that comes from sanctions and consequently his desire to patch up the conflict with Ukraine's (if it still exists) new more lenient government which is to replace the current one before March to get the sanctions cancelled.

[Viking]

Dashcam footage purportedly showing grad attack on Mariupol. Van in front almost takes direct hit.


http://youtu.be/PD_bwzPbGrA

[Gilrandir]

Dashcam footage purportedly showing grad attack on Mariupol. Van in front almost takes direct hit.

The night after the shelling was astonishingly quiet along the whole frontline. It seems that the terrorists are digesting what they have done and need some adjustment of their plans.

SBU made public an intercepted coversation in which a terrorist (not surprisingly with the nickname "Terrorist") orders another one (nicknamed "Ash") to shell the Eastern district of Mariupol. Ash at first objects that there are nine-storeyed buildings over there, but Terrorist assures him that they are 1.5 km from the checkpoint which is to become the target.
After the shelling Terrorist upbraides Ash for doing it on his own, without consulting the direction layer. Yet he tells him not to worry much and shell Talakivka next. Ash himself doesn't sound abashed and says something like "serve them right as it will make them flee sooner."

http://news.liga.net/video/incident/4872860-sbu_perekhvatila_peregovory_boevikov_po_obstrelu_mariupolya.htm

[Gilrandir]

A talk show with Girkin aka Strelkov, at which he admits being in the Crimea in February - March 2014 and says that the deputies of the Crimean parliament were forced to come to the session amd forced to vote the way they did. https://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=youtu.be&v=aelwn_UfeN0&app=desktop

[Gilrandir]

Finally!!! Ukraine is a NATO member or else there are NATO troops in Ukraine (according to Putin):
http://www.cbs46.com/story/27944844/nato-legion-fights-in-ukraine-putin-charges

[Gilrandir]

Perhaps this one is more for German-speaking audience:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehl-qlqZEgU
Of course, I don't know how serious/unbiased is this "heute show", yet it seems that Russian flagrant propaganda has been finally known for what it is.

[Ice]

http://www.wsj.com/articles/the-siege-of-mariupol-1422490152


President Obama took a foreign-policy bow during his State of the Union speech last week, boasting that “we’re upholding the principle that bigger nations can’t bully the small—by opposing Russian aggression, supporting Ukraine’s democracy, and reassuring our NATO allies.” Whereupon Russian-backed forces promptly expanded an offensive in Ukraine that has already claimed more than 5,000 lives.

On Saturday the Ukrainian port of Mariupol, strategically located on the Sea of Azov, came under indiscriminate rocket fire from positions controlled by the so-called Donetsk People’s Republic, the Moscow-sponsored militia in eastern Ukraine. Some 30 people were killed in the attacks; another hundred or so were wounded. Aleksandr Zakharchenko, since November the Donetsk Republic’s “Prime Minister,” had earlier promised an offensive against Mariupol, though both his militia and Moscow were quick to deny responsibility for the massacre.

None of this is surprising, though most military analysts expected the rebels to wait until spring before resuming their onslaught. It also underscores the willful disbelief of Westerners, starting with President Obama, who imagined that the combination of light sanctions on Russia and a steep drop in energy prices would force Vladimir Putin to call an end to his Ukrainian adventure.

The opposite has happened. Russia put its name to a cease-fire signed in Minsk last September. Yet by November Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO’s Supreme Commander, was reporting the movement of “Russian troops, Russian artillery, Russian air defense systems and Russian combat troops” into Ukraine. More recent sightings of “little green men” in insignia-less uniforms suggest the presence of Russian special forces fighting alongside the rebels.

The Kremlin’s likely aim for this latest offensive is to take Mariupol, which would consolidate rebel control over the Donetsk region and provide a better sea link between Russian-occupied Crimea and the Russian mainland. European leaders have lately been warning that Moscow will face a new round of sanctions should the rebel offensive continue. But given the noises French President François Hollande and others have been making about easing up on sanctions, Mr. Putin probably figures he can take Mariupol first and then bargain the West down.

It also doesn’t hurt Mr. Putin that the Ukrainian war has further boosted his popularity—88% approval, according to one opinion poll late last year—despite the economic turmoil. Russian nationalism runs deep, and dictators tend to benefit politically from splendid little wars, at least those they win.

Which is what makes it all the more imperative for the West to ensure that Russia does not win. The Ukrainian military has ringed Mariupol with a three-tiered defense, but a defeat there would put the defense of the rest of Ukraine into serious question. Ukrainian President Petro Poroshenko has repeatedly asked the U.S. to assist his country with arms, but so far the Obama Administration has done nothing more than to offer limited nonlethal aid. Even Hillary Clinton, in postdove campaign mode, wants the U.S. to do more.

We’re all for sanctioning the Kremlin, especially in ways that directly affect Mr. Putin and his inner circle. But if the West wants to stop the Kremlin’s military offensive, military means are also required. Giving Ukraine the arms to defend its territory is the only chance of stopping Mr. Putin’s siege.

[Gilrandir]

Russian parliament is planning to condemn West Germany for annexing East Germany in 1989.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/01/28/russias-bizarre-proposal-to-condemn-west-germanys-1989-annexation-of-east-germany/
Apart from being the raving of an sick imagination, how seriuos are the charges? I mean was there any legal procedure of reunification obsereved (like voting by GDR's parliament or something) or was it assumed by default that all East Germans want to lose their country?

[Gilrandir]

http://news.softpedia.com/news/Russian-Hackers-Leak-List-of-Pro-Russian-Influence-Group-Made-of-High-Profile-European-Individuals-466418.shtml

[Hax]

Perhaps this one is more for German-speaking audience:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ehl-qlqZEgU
Of course, I don't know how serious/unbiased is this "heute show", yet it seems that Russian flagrant propaganda has been finally known for what it is.

Looks like a German Daily Show tbh.

[Husar]

Russian parliament is planning to condemn West Germany for annexing East Germany in 1989.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/worldviews/wp/2015/01/28/russias-bizarre-proposal-to-condemn-west-germanys-1989-annexation-of-east-germany/
Apart from being the raving of an sick imagination, how seriuos are the charges? I mean was there any legal procedure of reunification obsereved (like voting by GDR's parliament or something) or was it assumed by default that all East Germans want to lose their country?

I think it was assumed that everybody wants freedom, democracy and capitalism. Russia got a boatload of money for letting us have it and then we payed more to clean up the mess they left behind. The place is barely civilized by now and one could make a good case that they never deserved democracy.

[Gilrandir]

I think it was assumed that everybody wants freedom, democracy and capitalism. Russia got a boatload of money for letting us have it and then we payed more to clean up the mess they left behind.

I spoke of LEGAL procedure of re-unification. Was there any?


The place is barely civilized by now
You are jumping to a conclusion too fast, you haven't seen Ukrainian sticks.

[Husar]

I spoke of LEGAL procedure of re-unification. Was there any?

I have no idea, I was five at the time and we didn't learn about it at school. What kind of legal procedure could there be about it? Isn't it inherently a political thing? The previous government of the DDR left and didn't resist, what would lawyers argue about? Whether such a unification was fine according to the DDR's constitution?


You are jumping to a conclusion too fast, you haven't seen Ukrainian sticks.

It was an absolute, not a relative statement and it still stands.

[Husar]

http://www.focus.de/politik/ausland/ukraine-krise/ukraine-krise-kiew-motiviert-soldaten-mit-abschusspraemien_id_4438784.html


11.47 Uhr: Im Kampf gegen prorussische Separatisten in der Ostukraine hat die Regierung in Kiew "Abschussprämien" für ihre Soldaten eingeführt. Einem am Donnerstag veröffentlichten Beschluss zufolge zahlt der Staat für ein vernichtetes Fahrzeug der Aufständischen umgerechnet 600 Euro.
Zerstörte Panzer werden mit 2400 Euro belohnt, und für ein abgeschossenes Kampfflugzeug soll es 6000 Euro geben. Zusätzlich will die Regierung den Soldaten für jeden Tag im Kampfeinsatz 50 Euro zahlen. Armeeangehörige klagen jedoch oft darüber, dass der finanziell klamme Staat ihnen den Sold schulde.


11:47 Clock: In fight against prorussian separatists in the eastukraine has the government in Kiew "killrewards" for its soldiers introduced. An on tuesday released decision following pays the state for a destroyed vehicle of the rebels recalculated 600 Euro.
Destroyed tanks are with 2400 Euro rewarded, and for a downshot fighterairplane should it 6000 Euro give. Additionally wants the government the soldiers for every day in fightingmission 50 Euro pay. Armybelongers complain however often about, that the financially tight state them the pay owes.

:sweatdrop:
You should get the point, the Ukrainian government rewards soldiers for destroyed enemy vehicles now and wants to pay them 50 Euros for every day in the war zone. Soldiers however complain that the government still owes them their basic wages in the first place.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

I have no idea, I was five at the time and we didn't learn about it at school. What kind of legal procedure could there be about it? Isn't it inherently a political thing? The previous government of the DDR left and didn't resist, what would lawyers argue about? Whether such a unification was fine according to the DDR's constitution?



It was an absolute, not a relative statement and it still stands.

That's actually not an unreasonable question - the DDR would have had to sign something that declared it effectively ceased to exist, as it's constituent states simply became part of the German federation, or whatever you guys call yourselves today.

If the DDR didn't sign itself out of existence legally then you would technically be talking about an annexation with less of a rubber stamp than Crimea.

Also - it is pretty weird, bordering on disturbing, that this isn't taught in German schools given that it's the most important event in German history since the end of World War II.

[Husar]

Why? It's all on Wikipedia anyway. In history classes we covered the french revolution at least threee times since it was obviously the most historically significant event of all times.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_reunification#German_Reunification_Treaty


The Volkskammer, the Parliament of East Germany, passed a resolution on 23 August 1990 seeking the accession (Beitritt) of the German Democratic Republic to the Federal Republic of Germany as allowed by article 23 of the West German Basic Law, effective 3 October 1990.[7][8] In the wake of that resolution, the "German reunification treaty",[9][10][11] commonly known in German as "Einigungsvertrag" (Unification Treaty) or "Wiedervereinigungsvertrag" (Reunification Treaty), that had been negotiated between the two German states since 2 July 1990, was signed on 31 August 1990. This Treaty, officially titled Vertrag zwischen der Bundesrepublik Deutschland und der Deutschen Demokratischen Republik über die Herstellung der Einheit Deutschlands (Treaty between the Federal Republic of Germany and the German Democratic Republic on the Establishment of German Unity), was approved by large majorities in the legislative chambers of both countries on 20 September 1990[12] (442–47 in the West German Bundestag and 299–80 in the East German Volkskammer). The amendments to the Federal Republic's Basic Law that were foreseen in the Unification Treaty or necessary for its implementation were adopted by the Federal Statute of 23 September 1990. Under article 45 of the Treaty,[13] it entered into force in international Law on 29 September 1990, upon the exchange of notices regarding the completion of the respective internal constitutional requirements for the adoption of the treaty in both East Germany and West Germany.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Lots of negotiation and paperwork and publicly recorded votes on both sides favoring approval.

The Russian claim that this was an annexation only flies if the Russians are asserting that East Germany was never a real state of its own in the first place and that their legislature, therefore, had no authority to enact such a treaty. While arguably correct on one level there are too many public assertions regarding the "independence" of Warsaw Pact nations by the Soviets to make this argument readily acceptable.

Writ large, the Russian claim is based on Hungary and Czechoslovakia having been Soviet responses to "internal" dissent -- they had a right to squash them because they were REALLY just provinces -- and that the "province" of East Germany really still belongs to Russia as the inheritor of the Soviet Union.

In short, this is just political theater.

[Gilrandir]

Writ large, the Russian claim is based on Hungary and Czechoslovakia having been Soviet responses to "internal" dissent -- they had a right to squash them because they were REALLY just provinces -- and that the "province" of East Germany really still belongs to Russia as the inheritor of the Soviet Union.

Yet Hungary and Czechoslovakia were never officially accepted as members of the USSR, while DDR was made into a part of another country.



In short, this is just political theater.
... aimed to justify what Russia did with the Crimea using the kettle-pot approach.

[Gilrandir]

Perhaps, some will call it propaganda, yet the reason why I'm posting this one is to let people from outside Ukraine see one of the important factors keeping the Ukrainian army afloat.
http://mashable.com/2014/12/28/ukraine-volunteers-soldiers/
On Russian soldiers in Ukraine:
http://www.newsweek.com/2014/09/19/russian-soldiers-reveal-truth-behind-putins-secret-war-269227.html#.VMmGSUInQwA.facebook

[Viking]

Evidence has emerged of the NATO legion (http://www.voanews.com/content/soldiers-killed-in-ukraine/2613435.html) in Ukraine that Putin spoke of. I think even Husar will have to accept this level of evidence.

https://i.imgur.com/mzKTpOZ.png

[Husar]

I don't need to accept anything, I've been saying this the whole time.

Small language warning.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zA1hyqA6UTY

[Strike For The South]

It is January 31st, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.

[Husar]

http://blogs.wsj.com/washwire/2014/05/17/fighting-fascism-isnt-the-way-to-stop-putin/


First, has any debate ever been improved by comparisons to Hitler? It’s the one type of name-calling certain to drive people crazy. We see that happening in Ukraine. The debate about who is a fascist has been part of the political hysteria that may eventually make that country ungovernable.

A second reason to be sparing with the F-bomb is more subtle. The label makes us think we’re talking about politicians and political movements ready for Armageddon. Fascists love throwing themselves on funeral pyres—they seem impossible to deter by ordinary means. But that’s not Mr. Putin (and my guess is it’s not Narendra Modi, the likely new Indian prime minister, either). Mr. Putin often miscalculates–but he does calculate.

http://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/2014/03/you-say-fascist-i-say-nazi-201431742329348214.html


Among the "Ten handy phrases for bluffing your way through a conversation about the situation in Ukraine", the British Spectator magazine suggested rather sardonically: "The similarities with Hitler and the Sudetenland/Anschluss/Peter the Great/Stalin and the Tartars/Genghis Khan are striking."
The article makes it clear that "Historical analogies are invaluable to the experienced bluffer, but the amateur must tread carefully."
It follows, "When in doubt, hedge: 'I am not saying that Putin is Hitler, but …' or 'It’s easy to get carried away with these comparisons, but...' Try to look pained, as if contemplating both the complexity and the imminent possibility of human suffering."

[Gilrandir]

It is January 31st, 2015 and Putin is still a fascist.
Every now and then every company changes its slogans and very often they (slogans) kind of echo the previous one. In view of this and the fact that the above one is like a year old and recent developments in Donbas I suggest we update it. What about "It is whatever date and Putin gets fascister than ever"? Yet I don't insist on this one and open for any ideas.
And another kind of update:
http://www.nbcnews.com/storyline/ukraine-crisis/rebels-suffer-heavy-losses-battle-ukraines-debaltseve-n296841

[GenosseGeneral]

I think we are in a highly critical stage right now which might lead to a further escalation on both national and global level.
According to Kuchma, in Minsk the Separatists threatened to begin a full-scale military attack, if their demand for a one-sided ceasefire by the Ukrainian side is not met. At the same time, they have substantially increased the military pressure. There have been intensive fights yesterday, the Ukranian forces have lost ground, so it seems to be no empty threat. However, their demands are unacceptable to the Ukrainian side. So if the separatists do not chicken out and indeed take that violent outside option, we will be back to the July-August intensity of warfare.
On a global level, the attack on Mariupol has raised concerns in the West, opening a timeframe for a decision towards harsher sanctions against Russia. As we all know, the EU usually needs some time to agree on sanctions, yet currently there are plans on the table. This is due to the attack on Mariupol last week. Meanwhile, even Medvedev threatened "unlimited retaliation" for a next round of 'hard' economic sanctions (e.g. cutting Russia off from SWIFT).
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/3473848-kuchma-v-myanske-separatysty-uhrozhaly-polnomasshtabnoi-voinoi

[Gilrandir]

So if the separatists do not chicken out and indeed take that violent outside option, we will be back to the July-August intensity of warfare.

If we are then with a reversed momentum - it is the separatists who are now on the offensive.
And you link to an article in Russian - well, I know everything that's in it, while (most of) others can't read it. Yet thanks. If you are interesed in constant update of the events in Russian and Ukrainian (and some analytical thoughts, including those from Nemtsov and other Russians) I can recommend this site:
http://nv.ua/

[Gilrandir]

Now let Husar and Genosse General be ready to part with their hard-earned money:
http://itar-tass.com/en/russia/775042
And perhaps Brenus as well - after all he must pay something, Napoleon was a well-known arsonists.
And I dare not think what bill Mongolia will have to foot.
And one more read:
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e3ace220-a252-11e4-9630-00144feab7de.html#axzz3QfpftG7J