Rise of The Snake Cult [Concluded]

[Al Sipsclar]

The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game.

How am I under the radar? I feel like I have a transponder stuck on "scum". As Cuth says below, I'm a permanent lynchbait.


I always find Sips hard to read. He seems to be a favorite mislynch target, but I haven't played enough with him to be certain of my reads.


I think we played in 3 games together. I was town in all, and you were scum in 2 out of three. Because of that I'm actually have to fight the scum bias against you.

[Al Sipsclar]

Actually, OMGUS is voting for someone who has voted you…

Right. I voted for edse, who voted me, as you eloquently noted in #84 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053674540&viewfull=1#post2053674540).

[seireikhaan]

Here are Al's posts.
To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.

Vote:Al Sipsclar
This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.


The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game.
Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

[Al Sipsclar]

My leans at the moment:

Town:
Winston Hughes - less sure today, hope to see more activity during the week
Raith Kemmler - good content
Scarlett Aria - seems clueless enough to be town

Slight town:
Cuthillius - attempts at scumhunting
El Barto - good level of activity
landlubber - I like his activity level D1, though the first vote on Beskar worries me
edse - the way he reacted yesterday gives me some hope

Neutral/Unknown:
Severing viper - duplicate posts. Understandable since he's new to the forum, though might also show nervousness.
GeneralHankerchief - why Beskar had to die for you to live?
Autolycus - filthy lurker
Johnhughthom - hides behind Winston
seireikhaan - hides behind GH
Zain - seems overexcited, but understandable after a long hiatus
Cass_ - actually upgraded from slight scum. I understand that maybe it's the personal style, but I believe delaying the vote is anti-town.

Slight scum:
Jarema
Golden1Knight
Nightbringer
- low activity, don't like the votes.

Vote: Nightbringer I can also support lynching Jarema or Golden1Knight.

[Jarema]

I do not know what you do not like in my votes, Al

[Al Sipsclar]

I don't like who and how you voted, Jarema. I'd like you to post more. What do you think of the game so far? Who do you think is town?
Below is everything you posted in the game so far.


vote: Cuthillius.

Hi there


vote: Edse. Lets create some pressure here


I do not know what you do not like in my votes, Al

[Cuthillius]

I don't like who and how you voted, Jarema. I'd like you to post more. What do you think of the game so far? Who do you think is town?
Below is everything you posted in the game so far.

I was planning on dealing with that this morning, yeah. :I

[Cuthillius]

Lol I'm a derp at times.>.>

Alette. To unvote you just type


Unvote

If you retype your old vote then it counts as basically unvoting and revoting.

Hope that helps.

[Cuthillius]

I think we played in 3 games together. I was town in all, and you were scum in 2 out of three. Because of that I'm actually have to fight the scum bias against you.
Lol you're right. You just get mislynched by other townies, not generally the scum team.

[Cuthillius]

That's correct, I don't care much if any of them die. Why should I if I don't believe they are helping town? We are lynching someone here every day.
I like this, you can be town for now. Unvote

Self demonstration: removing my vote from Cuthalious

Unvote

Lol. First you OMGUS, but actually not, so you just sort of pointless vote me for tagging you in a post, and then you unvote with just as much reason. Fish of Suspicion.

Oh and if it helps just call me Cuth.

[Raith Kemmler]

Lol I'm a derp at times.>.>

Me too. I got confused by an unfamiliar voting system. Mea culpa.


How am I under the radar? I feel like I have a transponder stuck on "scum". As Cuth says below, I'm a permanent lynchbait.

I think we played in 3 games together. I was town in all, and you were scum in 2 out of three. Because of that I'm actually have to fight the scum bias against you.

I agree with this. I've been dealing with maybe some cultural clashing with Al and Cuthilious, but I wouldn't say Al was under the radar. He's been proc'ing people aggressively.

What's Cuthiliious posting look like then and now? Any differences?


This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming.

Maybe. Too whatever for the mafia isn't a premise I'd chase very far game to game.


Slight scum:
Jarema
Golden1Knight
Nightbringer
- low activity, don't like the votes.

Me neither. The law of averages says they're probably not all mafia, but they're the same player. Well Golden, must be hard to stealth in all that shiney armor, is playing a glaringly insubstantial echo chamber game. Jarema posts are minimal, and Nightbringer is Jarema's grumpier brother.

Lynching all of them in a row? Fool's errand. But with no content, ignoring them is kind of bad too. Any ideas?


I don't like who and how you voted, Jarema. I'd like you to post more. What do you think of the game so far? Who do you think is town?

I'm Raith Kemmler, and I support this message.

[Cuthillius]

Just call me Cuth.

[Raith Kemmler]

Just call me Cuth.

Cuth it is.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I'll get in on this.

Vote: Jarema

[Jarema]

I don't like who and how you voted, Jarema. I'd like you to post more. What do you think of the game so far? Who do you think is town?
Below is everything you posted in the game so far.

You did not answer me. I know why you dont like my level of activity, but why you dont like whom I voted?

[landlubber]

I'm not seeing scumminess in Jarema's behavior. It's been noted in the past that townie Jarema is noticeably less verbose than scum Jarema. He tends to involve himself more when he's non-town. I do think that pressuring the inactives is a good strategy at this stage in the game, though.

A lot of Al Sips's other potential scum pings are pretty null. GH and Khaan always play off of each other, as do Winston and JHT, and Autolycus is never all that active compared to most players.

That being said, vote:Nightbringer is the best choice that I see. There are many players we need to see more from, and he's one of the most flagrant and most unreadable lurkers.

[Jarema]

It's been noted in the past that townie Jarema is noticeably less verbose than scum Jarema.

Which I really regret.
As a scum, I feel that I owe it to my emies to give them something to analize, for the sake of fairness of the game. And, as a townie, I dont feel such obligation. Sometimes, I try to make cases, but it is hard with no informations from without the thread

[autolycus]

Al Sipsclar does seem to be the scummiest, but there's plenty of votes there. Let's go with the arbitrary counterwagon on Jarrema.

[El Barto]

What an opportune moment to crawl out of the woodwork! vote:autolycus

[edse]

I was attacked last night. Poisoned. If I know Visor correctly I'll be dead in about two days.

For the moment I agree with Khaan on Vote: Scarlett.

[Zain]

Y'all are right, it's awesome being back. Though it's hard for me to be very active during this holiday season, I'm reading the posts in big sections, and I stick to my previous vote.

[Raith Kemmler]

The sudden turn to both inactives has me hair up. It feels really easy.

If we're going to put one of the non-shows on trial, I'm leaning to the one who looks the most classically mafia. I like the votes on Nightbringer, and I won't cry if he dies, but his one post is kind of null. He's not helping town, but I can't say he's done anything scummy either. Jarema is a bit more active, but I'm not smelling the scum there if his meta is true. But Goldenknight does smell fearful.

Day 1: I demand some posting from the inactives.


Vote: Cuthilious

A few minutes later, our lurker comes out, and then goes back into the shadows.


Vote: Al Sipsclar

Raith seems a bit suspicious too.

Day 2, we get this regurgitation of other people's sentiments. It's basically nothing at best, and a clumsy smokescreen at worst.

Weird vote be weird. Pretty much everyone else posting around this time looks sidewise at this post.


I did not expect that my vote would cause such a reaction!

First, it is a habit of mine to vote without explaining. It may be a negligence but has worked so far :P

My vote was guided by the posts made on the thread, and I did not vote in Raith because GH's explanation seemed plausible (regarding day's lynch vote).

Golden now gives us what might be a soliloquy to what came before. Oh crap guys, you all noticed this. But I always do this, why are you looking at me? It's worked great. Why isn't it still working?

What's weirder though, is his sudden additional point on me. It doesn't look logical the way it transitions. It's more like, plugging a question before it can be asked. Anxiety maybe? Don't keep asking me to explain stuff?


My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.



Slight scum:
Jarema
Golden1Knight
Nightbringer
- low activity, don't like the votes.

Vote: Nightbringer I can also support lynching Jarema or Golden1Knight.

A couple people all make comments that Golden smells funny.

Yet Golden isn't on the chopping block. Suddenly his two inactive brothers in negligence are both up here, but he's just kind of floating away. That doesn't seem natural to me as a development. It feels manipulated. And if some capo did push the thread, saving Golden seems a decent hypothesis. If Nightbringer flips town, the typical town response is to give up on the inactives for a while at least and try finding an active mafiosa.

Unvote

Vote: GoldenKnight

[El Barto]

Brothers in negligence? I don't think they're coördinating anything.

[Raith Kemmler]

I don't either. As I said before, it's improbable they're all mafia. I was just grouping them as inactives by way of bad metaphor.

[El Barto]

I was attacked last night. Poisoned. If I know Visor correctly I'll be dead in about two days.
Can you expand on this?

I don't either. As I said before, it's improbable they're all mafia. I was just grouping them as inactives by way of bad metaphor.
Well, we'll see. Given that edse claims he was attacked, not all inactives can be mafia… well, it's unlikely.

[Scarlett Aria]

I really don't get the two votes on me now but it just seems a bit strange. My site has mostly active posters so Al sips posts ping to me as the bare minimum content. On the other hand the push for a Night lynch is strange with the fact that he isn't around much. Golden gives off a 3pish vibe though.

[johnhughthom]

Vote: Golden1Knight

[GeneralHankerchief]

Unvote: Jarema
Vote: johnhughthom

[El Barto]

Hey, if it's about counterwaggoning, I could repeat my line of reasoning used for voting Autolycus and change to jht…

[Golden1Knight]

It seems that your accusations are doing a great job removing me from the shadows. I will answer your questions, and then return to my natural habitat. That is, if my head remains over my shoulders.

Usually I read all the posts and, from what I can understand, I vote. It's not a perfect system, especially early in the game, where information is scarce, but there is not much I can do. But during the night stage, I make myself more useful. I am always willing to cooperate with other townies, even when it may be disadvantageous to me. In this game I'm townie again, although I can't prove it of course :P

I also have a personal goal to get to the end of the game still alive, a feat that I accomplished in my first two games and will try to achieve in this one as well. This golden knight hasn't met death (yet).

[Cuthillius]

I really don't get the two votes on me now but it just seems a bit strange. My site has mostly active posters so Al sips posts ping to me as the bare minimum content. On the other hand the push for a Night lynch is strange with the fact that he isn't around much. Golden gives off a 3pish vibe though.

How does Al seem bare minimum and not Jarema?

[Cuthillius]

My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Note: if Golden scum, khaan likely too.

That said... Vote:Golden1knight because he really doesn't look good and hasn't really provided convincing defence.

[Golden1Knight]

It seems that I dug my own grave. That's what I get for coming out of the shadows lol

Golden1Knight is lynched. He was town.

[El Barto]

Note: if Golden scum, khaan likely too.
And if Golden ain't scum…? btw thanks for making the waggon slightly more irreversible.

It seems that I dug my own grave. That's what I get for coming out of the shadows lol

Golden1Knight is lynched. He was town.
Well, I call PIS on that.

[El Barto]

I also have a personal goal to get to the end of the game still alive, a feat that I accomplished in my first two games and will try to achieve in this one as well. This golden knight hasn't met death (yet).
Wait, is this a GM-given personal goal or some random personal decision of yours?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Probably a personal decision, I know I have roughly the same personal goal but for the rest of eternity.

[GeneralHankerchief]

For the record I don't like this lynch.

[El Barto]

Probably a personal decision, I know I have roughly the same personal goal but for the rest of eternity.
Well, seeing as we've been having all these terminology issues recently, I thought I'd ask, even if he's resigned to his death.

For the record I don't like this lynch.
Counterwaggon on either auto or jht, whichever you prefer…?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Counterwaggon on either auto or jht, whichever you prefer…?

My vote's already on JHT. auto's going to be more responsive to game flow. JHT is going to be JHT.

[El Barto]

Then unvote; vote:johnhughthom.

[landlubber]

Sure.

unvote, vote:Johnhughthom

[El Barto]

btw, landlubber, as third on the bandwaggon, you're obviously mafia. :clown:

[Cuthillius]

Why are we counterwagoning JHT in particular?

[Cuthillius]

I think Golden's reaction to pressure is townie, though...

Unvote.

[El Barto]

Why are we counterwagoning JHT in particular?
It was between him and Auto, both of whom tend to lurk these games quite a lot. Look at jht's activity so far.

[Cuthillius]

I'm looking at it, but in doing so I also saw his last game, in which he was town, and behaved the exact same way.

[Scarlett Aria]

I'm going to go with my gut here and Vote: Al Sips

[Al Sipsclar]

Lol you're right. You just get mislynched by other townies, not generally the scum team.
I was only mislynched in the first game, RedDwarf. In Madness, I was lynched by the scum team, but I was asking for that, since I wanted to use my resurrection ability.



What's Cuthiliious posting look like then and now? Any differences?


Cuth was really reckless in RedDwarf, made mistakes and eventually caught. I don't think that was his usual scum game. Madness was a "special" game, so I don't believe that was indicative of his town play either. And in the last game he was lynched D2 during Thanksgiving weekend, without much input from him.

So, yes, his play now is different from what I saw before, and so far I like it.

[Al Sipsclar]

lol, Scarlett. :laugh4:

[El Barto]

Hey, it's not that bad a vote.

[Al Sipsclar]

You did not answer me. I know why you dont like my level of activity, but why you dont like whom I voted?

You voted, perhaps randomly D1, and that's ok. What I didn't like is that you didn't take any part in the subsequent discussion on D1. As if you wanted to avoid any attention. Compare to edse, who didn't hesitate to react to my post.
On D2, your only contribution has been following in Winston's wake and voting edse. I didn't like Winston's vote, that's why I said I'm less sure about him today. Your vote on edse I like even less.


Which I really regret.
As a scum, I feel that I owe it to my emies to give them something to analize, for the sake of fairness of the game. And, as a townie, I dont feel such obligation. Sometimes, I try to make cases, but it is hard with no informations from without the thread

The problem we have in this game, and it equally applies to all town lurkers, is that the private communication is not allowed. We can only communicate and coordinate in-thread. If you're lurking, you're not helping town.

[Al Sipsclar]

Hey, it's not that bad a vote.

I think it's third in a row already. "I have said it thrice: What I tell you three times is true."

[El Barto]

You voted, perhaps randomly D1, and that's ok. What I didn't like is that you didn't take any part in the subsequent discussion on D1. As if you wanted to avoid any attention. Compare to edse, who didn't hesitate to react to my post.
On D2, your only contribution has been following in Winston's wake and voting edse. I didn't like Winston's vote, that's why I said I'm less sure about him today. Your vote on edse I like even less.
That's… typical town Jarrema, I'd say.

I think it's third in a row already. "I have said it thrice: What I tell you three times is true."
It's not that bad a vote
It's not that bad a vote
It's not that bad a vote

Actually, that makes it four times, because I already said it last page. So I'm crossing one out.

[Al Sipsclar]

That's… typical town Jarrema, I'd say.


Well, I still don't like it. Like I said, this game is not like the usual where you can lurk. If we don't work together in the thread, we'll be taken out one by one (like it happened in "This is Madness!", for those who played there).

[edse]

Can you expand on this?

No, that's all. I feel terrible though.

[Winston Hughes]

Sorry so late, v. busy with RL.

Poisoning likely to be snake team attack.

khaan visited edse last night, when latter claims to be poisoned.

Simplest conclusion: khaan poisoned edse and is member of snake team.

vote: khaan

ps. If above holds, Csargo kill could be vig/SK.

[Al Sipsclar]

Vote: seireikhaan

[johnhughthom]

Unvote; Vote:khaan

[Cass_]

Vote: khaan

[Cass_]

:rolleyes:

vote: khaan

Here and catching up :)

[Cass_]

Can someone pull a votecount pls?

[Visor]

My net has been cutting out all day

[Visor]

2 Al Sips (Scarlett, Golden
1 Edse (Jarema
2 Scarlett (Khaan, edse
1 Night (Zain
1 Jarrema (Auto
1 Golden (RK
3 JHT (GH, EB, land
4 Khaan (WH, Al Sips, JHT, Cass

[Visor]

Doing this on phone. 24 hours for night. Khaan was lynched, he was Mafia.

[Csargo]

Called it, I'll go back to being quiet now.

[Visor]

Just a reminder that you shouldn't post after death.

From the rules:
• You may not talk after death except for a 'go town' style comment. There will be a dead quicktopic if you want to talk (or a skype chat).

[Golden1Knight]

Unvote: GH

Vote: El Barto

Don't you touch my honeybun.

I dont know if that means anything, but it's good to remember.

Also, I think El Barto, Scarlett (khaan voted for her) and everyone who voted for Khaan are town. Plus, Edse voted along with Khaan, but this is not a definitive evidence. Yet it is something to watch out.

[Golden1Knight]

Anyway, khaan's wagon came quickly and unexpectedly, so there was no reaction from his fellow mafiosi to save him.

[Cuthillius]

I was only mislynched in the first game, RedDwarf. In Madness, I was lynched by the scum team, but I was asking for that, since I wanted to use my resurrection ability.



Cuth was really reckless in RedDwarf, made mistakes and eventually caught. I don't think that was his usual scum game. Madness was a "special" game, so I don't believe that was indicative of his town play either. And in the last game he was lynched D2 during Thanksgiving weekend, without much input from him.

So, yes, his play now is different from what I saw before, and so far I like it.

Don't forget NSP.

[Cuthillius]

I didn't want to lynch khaan that early just because he was providing content and the more the better. But hey, it worked out.

[Golden1Knight]

What content?

I only remember him protecting Al Sipsclair (though now Al Sips voted for his lynching).

[Cuthillius]

What content?

I only remember him protecting Al Sipsclair (though now Al Sips voted for his lynching).

He was posting. I like to keep posting scum leans alive for a little bit to let them incriminate their teammates when they're not in the center of discussion already and I'm unsure of whether I could even get them lynched if I tried.

[Al Sipsclar]

Don't forget NSP.

Yeah, I forgot you were in NSP. Just went back and checked, you were actually less active then than now.

[Al Sipsclar]

What content?

I only remember him protecting Al Sipsclair (though now Al Sips voted for his lynching).

Right, since I am People Magazine's Scummiest Man Alive, anyone who's protecting me likely knows too much. ~:)

[Raith Kemmler]

The problem we have in this game, and it equally applies to all town lurkers, is that the private communication is not allowed. We can only communicate and coordinate in-thread. If you're lurking, you're not helping town.

Preach it.

[El Barto]

Well, I still don't like it. Like I said, this game is not like the usual where you can lurk. If we don't work together in the thread, we'll be taken out one by one (like it happened in "This is Madness!", for those who played there).
We can always fall back on voting jht/autolycus/Jarrema, but right now jht looks a tiny bit townier than he did 24 hours ago, doesn't he? (unless there's two mafias… we have one kill and one apparent poisoning which Winston's claim and 'khaan's death all but confirmed, so… what gives? -eep, I've just reread the rules and it's a bit hazy, it just says there's no cults.)

No, that's all. I feel terrible though.
Do you know how long you have left to live?

I dont know if that means anything, but it's good to remember.
seireikhaan votes me for voting GeneralHankerchief, GH later agrees to join the counterwaggon on jht, jht later votes for 'khaan who is mafia… it could just be. Just. Or more probably not.

Also, I think El Barto, Scarlett (khaan voted for her) and everyone who voted for Khaan are town. Plus, Edse voted along with Khaan, but this is not a definitive evidence. Yet it is something to watch out.
So edse is a filthy Swede after all? He did vote for me, which is a very bad thing to do.

Anyway, khaan's wagon came quickly and unexpectedly, so there was no reaction from his fellow mafiosi to save him.
…or they chose to remain silent.

Right, since I am People Magazine's Scummiest Man Alive, anyone who's protecting me likely knows too much. ~:)
Whaaa?

[Zain]

I'm not lurking on purpose if I am...


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[El Barto]

What a strange thing to post. Especially when unasked.

[Zain]

Just want to be helpful, I just can't keep up. It's like y'all know rules and strategies I haven't heard of so I'm learning.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[El Barto]

I suspect someone has a bad case of the flinchies…

[Visor]

End of Night Two

The Duchess was found with multiple stab wounds on the floor of the court. The Cult had responded harshly for the death of one of their leaders. More threatened to come.

Scarlett Aria was killed!

She wastown!


Alive: 16/20
1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 4/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.

48 hours for day.

[edse]

Do you know how long you have left to live?

No, I feel bad and can die at any moment.


So edse is a filthy Swede after all?

Not for long if you keep saying that.

But where there is poison, there is cure. Visor usually adds a doctor that can save the poisoned. It would be very nice if you'd cure me tonight *hint, hint*

[Nightbringer]

Oh dear, I need to get my head in this game.

Here is a compilation of seireikhaan's posts for convenience.

DAY 1



Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
Okay, good. Now, to business.
Vote: khaan"


Rude!
Vote: GH

Might slant me towards believing GH is town since there is no real reason to draw associations with your fellow mafia.



Quote Originally Posted by Scarlett Aria
So to understand some of you better. I'm going to ask 2 questions to kind of understand where you are coming from.

1. If you are scum how would you approach a closed setup?

2. If you are town how would you approach a closed setup?


1. Wouldn't answer that truthfully anyways.

2. See above.

Pretty meaningless response.


Unvote: GH
Vote: El Barto

Don't you touch my honeybun.

(Barto had just voted GH)

I would say this is basically just playing into normal meta, although again no real reason to think he would do this towards fellow mafia without need, especially since all the votes were so close on day 1.



Quote Originally Posted by Cass_
The response is essentially null but at least he outright said he's not clueless or intending to be - ergo, he's not hiding behind that and even if he was he can't now because he'll be caught out. I'm not sure yet whether he's more likely scummy or low hanging fruit. My next step is to look at vote trains (I know, I'm cutting it close).


For what it's worth, I and I'm pretty sure at least a few others were pretty clueless on what exactly you meant by that. Been playing here since '07(though not as long as certain others), and have never seen people refer to setups as open or closed before. Just one of those little meta things that different places have. Believe me, if Beskar had tried pretending he was a noob, that would have been a *very* transparent tactic. :tongue:

I find it hard to believe he would be having this conversation with fellow mafia, so I'm inclined to trust cass.



Quote Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief
As for khaan, I'm probably putting words in his mouth, but he's likely to save me on D1 when there's nothing to go off of, but he'd be more than willing to cut my throat midgame if he thinks I'm scum. Or if he flat-out doesn't have a read on me. Or if there's no good lynch candidate and he simply wants to troll. But by that time he's usually picked up a grudge against at least one other player in the game and will have tunnel vision on them, so who knows.


You can put those words wherever you want, love. :smitten:

I would say this is just a meta post.



Quote Originally Posted by El Barto
And you voted me (always a bad thing to do) for voting him…?


Yeah, that sounds about right.

Again, I would say this is basically meta. It just feels too blatant to be a bluff against either GH or El Barto




Quote Originally Posted by Cuthillius
Here are Al's posts.
To me, it seems like he's moving his vote around a little too much compared to the number of posts he's making and what he's saying. First he makes a sort of jokey vote, than he OMGUS's, then votes Cass because she hasn't voted enough. I just don't really see much mental transition between these and it kinda feels like he doesn't care much if any of them die.
Vote:Al Sipsclar


This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Quote Originally Posted by Scarlett Aria
The thing that makes me think he is scum is his under the radar type play D1. It has a different tone then the others. The Csargo kill could possibly be someone who thinks he has good reads on this roster? Not sure because this is my first game."


Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

[Nightbringer]

Nightbringer: Got whacked with RL issues in The Inquisition so wasn't that active. Baseline in that game was a bit like Winston, (Decent levels of activity but his posts are usually short and to the point. Will elaborate if pressed though.) though he's more prone to dropping in, casting his vote, and being done with the round.


Also, this is a great characterization of my usual activity in mafia games for a while now, although i do tend to get much more active once there are less people around. I tend to find the early game a bit overwhelming.

[edse]

1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

16 people left. The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia. I'm not mafia.

The first day Khaan made an early joke vote.

Rude!

Vote: GH
Later, when GH was tied for the lead, he changed it.

Unvote: GH

Vote: El Barto

Don't you touch my honeybun.

That's good enough for me at the moment Vote: GeneralHankerchief

[Nightbringer]

1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

16 people left. The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia. I'm not mafia.

The first day Khaan made an early joke vote.

Later, when GH was tied for the lead, he changed it.


That's good enough for me at the moment Vote: GeneralHankerchief

It just feels too blatant and meta to me, but it is possible. I would say it takes El Barto off the suspect list for sure though. I had missed the Al voted khann though.

[Jarema]

vote: GeneralHankerchief too

[Cuthillius]

FTR, Alette was pretty suspicious of Sips this whole time. Not sure if that means anything, but good to keep in mind.

[autolycus]

I don't like this GH wagon. I think vote:edse is a good alternative. It feels like he was starting a case early to divert from the fact that he voted the same way as khaan yesterday.

[Cuthillius]

I don't like this GH wagon. I think vote:edse is a good alternative. It feels like he was starting a case early to divert from the fact that he voted the same way as khaan yesterday.

I say we wait to see if he dies from poison first.

[landlubber]

I still think the ties between GH and Khaan are null. They'd act like that regardless of their alignments.

I have a very hard time seeing Al Sips as scum given that he was eager to lynch Khaan. Why wouldn't a mafioso just ignore that wagon, pretend that they didn't see it until after the day ended?

I'm feeling vote:Zain.

[Winston Hughes]

Zain, whilst by no means proven innocent, is not responsible for the murder of Scarlett Aria.

[Winston Hughes]

The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia.

I'm not so confident as that. My post coming so late, there was a chance of khaan surviving to get lynched today instead. Nevertheless, it was pretty much a headshot, and if I'm his scumbuddy in that situation, I can certainly imagine pushing him under the bus right then.

[Al Sipsclar]

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.


I had missed the Al voted khann though.

Yes, I beg you, please look more closely. You're missing pretty obvious moments.

[Al Sipsclar]

Also, this is a great characterization of my usual activity in mafia games for a while now, although i do tend to get much more active once there are less people around. I tend to find the early game a bit overwhelming.
This is also what Auto keeps saying. If you're mafia, this translates as: "Let us kill few townies first, then we can lynch pretty much anyone."

[Al Sipsclar]

I don't like this GH wagon. I think vote:edse is a good alternative. It feels like he was starting a case early to divert from the fact that he voted the same way as khaan yesterday.

Though I don't like Auto's vote (I consider edse pretty much clear at this point), I, too, would like to know why you voted Scarlett yesterday, edse?


I say we wait to see if he dies from poison first.

Not if he gets cured.

[El Barto]

No, I feel bad and can die at any moment.
So the, um, waiting time is… indefinite?

Not for long if you keep saying that.
:clown: Are you going to shower then?

But where there is poison, there is cure. Visor usually adds a doctor that can save the poisoned. It would be very nice if you'd cure me tonight *hint, hint*
Very much so.

I say we wait to see if he dies from poison first.
As Al says, not if he gets cured.

Zain, whilst by no means proven innocent, is not responsible for the murder of Scarlett Aria.
Interesting.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Wait, where in the writeup (or the thread for that matter) does it mention that edse got poisoned and could possibly get cured?

[El Barto]

edse mentioned it and Winston said that he'd seen seireikhaan visiting him, there was a sudden waggon on 'khaan and then khaan was dead and turned out to be mafia.

[GeneralHankerchief]

What about the hint of a cure though?

[Al Sipsclar]

Updating my leans:

Town:
Winston Hughes - would be a ballsey gambit to push for khaan's lynch to save JHT
Raith Kemmler - good content
edse - though voting Scarlett was bad
Cass_ - Cemented khaan's lynch. I will never get over her delaying her vote until late in the day. Vote early, vote often!

Slight town:
Cuthillius - continuing attempts at scumhunting
El Barto - good level of activity
Johnhughthom - lynched khaan, though was saving himself in the process, might be bussing.

Neutral/Unknown:
Jarema - townie meta according to few folks
landlubber - his voting choices worry me
Autolycus - still filthy lurker, questionable voting choices
Zain - eager and overexcited, but understandable after a long hiatus. Was not visiting Scarlett last night.
Golden1Knight - some activity, keep it up

Slight scum:
GeneralHankerchief - D2: was ready to lynch Jarema or JHT. D1: why Beskar had to die for you to live?
Severing viper - MIA? duplicate posts D1. Understandable since he's new to the forum, though might also show nervousness.
Nightbringer - some attempt at analysis, but no vote?

I Vote: GeneralHankerchief for now.

[GeneralHankerchief]

GeneralHankerchief - D2: was ready to lynch Jarema or JHT. D1: why Beskar had to die for you to live?

I don't see how these are strikes against me. Jarema was inactive at the time, JHT still is aside from his preservation vote against khaan. As for the Beskar thing, I picked him because I wasn't sure about his identity, he had votes on him already, and I knew my identity. Why are you giving JHT a free pass for the self-preservation vote and calling me out for it?

[El Barto]

What about the hint of a cure though?
It's a bit meta, as far as I can tell… edse wouldn't be simply told ‘right, you're dying’ if there wasn't some way of saving him. Otherwise there would be a visit to his place (I'm assuming Winston is a tracker/watcher) and then edse would die without explanation x days/nights later and we'd be none the wiser; the mafia could just use poison and wait for people to die which they could camouflage by subtly influencing lynches. Several days later someone might figure that out, but that'd be too much… has anyone else gotten poisoned? That way we would know whether it takes effect within a given number of days (edse said "I feel bad and can die at any moment.") or not.

Of course, this all depends on edse telling the truth; I think it's believable.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Not for long if you keep saying that.

But where there is poison, there is cure. Visor usually adds a doctor that can save the poisoned. It would be very nice if you'd cure me tonight *hint, hint*

Upon further read I accept this. Now if Al Sip could clarify what I perceive to be uneven logic we can move forward.

[Al Sipsclar]

It's been noted in the past that townie Jarema is noticeably less verbose than scum Jarema.
Which I really regret.
As a scum, I feel that I owe it to my emies to give them something to analize, for the sake of fairness of the game. And, as a townie, I dont feel such obligation. Sometimes, I try to make cases, but it is hard with no informations from without the thread

Jarema, may I suggest that you always play as if you're a scum. If anything, you'll make it impossible for Visor to call you out.

[El Barto]

…But Visor isn't playing.

[Al Sipsclar]

I don't see how these are strikes against me. Jarema was inactive at the time, JHT still is aside from his preservation vote against khaan. As for the Beskar thing, I picked him because I wasn't sure about his identity, he had votes on him already, and I knew my identity. Why are you giving JHT a free pass for the self-preservation vote and calling me out for it?

Choosing between JHT and you: he lynched a scum, you lynched a townie. Granted, you probably wasn't sure he was a townie, but on D1 the chances are very high. I hope there's a good reason for you to value your role more than any other townie's role. I know that in this game I wouldn't risk a mislynch to save myself.

I'm open to alternatives. What are your leans?

[El Barto]

Please tell me you're not asking GH to reveal his role on this kind of argument.

[Al Sipsclar]

Please tell me you're not asking GH to reveal his role on this kind of argument.
I think I worded it carefully enough to avoid that. I said that I hope he has a good reason, and I'm asking for his opinion on potential lynch candidates that I could support instead.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Yeah no, I'm pretty much always going to self-preserve unless the circumstances are extreme. I value my role more than everyone else's because I'm 100% sure of it. Simple as that, not apologizing for how I play, not going to change it, and going to be really annoyed if that's why I get lynched.

As for alternate candidates, I'm still aboard the JHT train. JHT's vote on khaan tells me very little, and he's bussed people in the past. As for you, I disagree with a lot of your leans, particularly in terms of your correlating activity to townieness, but that's most likely you being unfamiliar with the baseline/a fundamental disagreement between us as opposed to scumminess.

Vote:johnhughthom

[Al Sipsclar]

I better lose a game where scum is actively posting than win a game where everyone is sitting idle and waiting for someone to present a case. Just bite the bullet, arrange all who's alive by scumminess (however you define it for yourself) and vote your scummiest lean.

[El Barto]

I think I worded it carefully enough to avoid that. I said that I hope he has a good reason, and I'm asking for his opinion on potential lynch candidates that I could support instead.
Well, the ‘I hope there's a good reason…’ part sounded a bit like ‘Could you tell us?’ but maybe I'm being slightly paranoid.

Yeah no, I'm pretty much always going to self-preserve unless the circumstances are extreme. I value my role more than everyone else's because I'm 100% sure of it. Simple as that, not apologizing for how I play, not going to change it, and going to be really annoyed if that's why I get lynched.

As for alternate candidates, I'm still aboard the JHT train. JHT's vote on khaan tells me very little, and he's bussed people in the past. As for you, I disagree with a lot of your leans, particularly in terms of your correlating activity to townieness, but that's most likely you being unfamiliar with the baseline/a fundamental disagreement between us as opposed to scumminess.

Vote:johnhughthom
I agree. If I'm slight town because of the number of posts, someone should show Al the chart. ;)
And as for alternate candidates we also have auto, the opportune lurker.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I agree that the game is better without lurkers than it is with them, but I'm only going to focus on the lurkers when there are no other pressing leads to pursue. I let the matter drop when I thought someone had inadvertently revealed perfect information in terms of the poisoning/potential cure thing. Barto pointed out that it might not be the case, I did a quick reread of the posts in question, and saw his point. That was my main scumtell lead, so now I'm back to my standby from the last round. After JHT is Nightbringer, as his analysis post in #333 might be a result of him feeling the anti-lurker pressure this game has so far generated.

[El Barto]

And when/if jht is revealed as town?

[GeneralHankerchief]

I'm not really sure I see the point in that question - it's thinking ahead way too far. For all I know somebody's going to make a post in two hours that really jumps out to me as scummy and I'll move my vote on them.

[Al Sipsclar]

I agree. If I'm slight town because of the number of posts, someone should show Al the chart. ;)

I'll be fine with El Barto's lynch.
Also landlubber or Cuthillius.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Barto and lubber seem okay to me, though his last question in #364 was weird. I'll look over Cuth's posts again sometime before I go to sleep.

[El Barto]

I'm not really sure I see the point in that question - it's thinking ahead way too far. For all I know somebody's going to make a post in two hours that really jumps out to me as scummy and I'll move my vote on them.
Not that far if we lynch jht today. Lynch him and then Nightbringer… but wait, jht (let's suppose) is not mafia, then why lynch Nightbringer?

(I concede that jht might just have bussed 'khaan in order to look good and so on, but I doubt he'd bother to post so early in the day anyway.

I'll be fine with El Barto's lynch.
But I won't! I -that is to say, we- have already established that lynching me is not good.

Also landlubber or Cuthillius.
Why and why?

[GeneralHankerchief]

Not that far if we lynch jht today. Lynch him and then Nightbringer… but wait, jht (let's suppose) is not mafia, then why lynch Nightbringer?

...because my reasons for each of their scumminess have nothing to do with each other?

[Al Sipsclar]

I'm trying to break out of my activity based meta.

[El Barto]

...because my reasons for each of their scumminess have nothing to do with each other?
Well, you were mentioning Nightbringer as anothe rlurker and I drew the connection from thence. Better for me to continue tomorrow, this physical activity thing is bad for the brain.

I'm trying to break out of my activity based meta.
‘And the Lord said to Al Sipsclar: Thou shalt not metagame in vain, and so long as thou followest my command, thou shalt prosper and lynch Уe scum.’

[Raith Kemmler]

Why and why?

LL has tripped a few wires here and there for people. I'm null currently. I really like the analysis we're getting, but feels a bit like their trying to keep their head out of ring. That could be a conservative townie, or it could be a conciliatory mafia. I like the feedback enough though that I wouldn't vote that way yet. Analysts are prime assets and all.

Vote: Severing Viper. Where'd you go buddy?

[landlubber]

What worries you, Al Sips, about my vote on Zain?

[landlubber]

LL has tripped a few wires here and there for people. I'm null currently. I really like the analysis we're getting, but feels a bit like their trying to keep their head out of ring. That could be a conservative townie, or it could be a conciliatory mafia. I like the feedback enough though that I wouldn't vote that way yet. Analysts are prime assets and all.

I'm not trying to be conservative, not really. I'm not usually the kind of person who speculates openly in-thread, although I do realize that the limitations on private messaging mean that I ought to be more forthcoming than usual. For what it's worth, I've still got Al Sips as town. Nothing has really changed there. JHT could still be mafia, sure, but he's never easy to read. I'd lynch several people in this thread before him. I've got a vote on Zain because his flinches seem more severe than regular eagerness. He's quite worried about how his words are perceived, and I don't like that.

Also, I use he/him pronouns ~;p.

[Zain]

Okay, here goes.

Early in the game I considered SeveringViper simply by the irony in his name, but have since noticed he seems quite inactive. Leaving me with very little in the way of analysis or his posts.

So I weigh my options, and I feel that activity may be an easy cover-up for scum. I know in the past playing Mafia in person, when I was scum it was easy to fool everybody by obviously drawing attention to myself.

So, without knowing the players personally, I go with instinct and Vote: Al for now.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

[Al Sipsclar]

What worries you, Al Sips, about my vote on Zain?

I don't like your D1 and D2 votes, as well. I think I feel some townie cluelessness in Zain. Your vote on him feels like kicking a puppy. I also would like to give the "new" (or equivalent) guy a chance to play and make mistakes. I might be paranoid about you (and Cuth).

Raith, please bold your votes!

[edse]

I don't "know" that there is a cure, but I'm quite sure about it. Only the doctor himself knows what he's doing.

[edse]

I found nothing wrong in Khaan's reasoning about Scarlett and didn't like the other candidates so that's why I voted for her. In hindsight it wasn't wise.

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?

[SeveringViper]

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?

I wouldn't say so, the flavor text does imply her death was in exchange for an important mafia role going down, but flavor is flavor, never wise to read into it unless the host says it might contain hints.

Also, hi, have a votecount:
GeneralHankerchief: edse, Jarema, Al Sipsclar
edse: autolycus
Zain: landlubber
johnhughthom: GeneralHankerchief
SeveringViper: Raith Kemmler (improper formatting)
Al Sipsclar: Zain

And a few questions:




I agree. If I'm slight town because of the number of posts, someone should show Al the chart. ;)

What does this mean? What chart?





Also landlubber or Cuthillius.

Why and why?

You never answered this, Al. Let me add that on your reads list not long before, you had Barto and Cuth among your slight town, for content and scumhunting, respectively, yet in the post quoted, you say you'll be fine with either being lynched? And what about your scum reads? You said this in reply to the post of Barto I quoted right before this, did that make him lose his town rank in your eyes? How/Why?


I'll look over Cuth's posts again sometime before I go to sleep.
Did you do this and did you see anything you'd missed?


I'm trying to break out of my activity based meta.

...? What does this mean? What prompted this?



LL has tripped a few wires here and there for people. I'm null currently. I really like the analysis we're getting, but feels a bit like their trying to keep their head out of ring. That could be a conservative townie, or it could be a conciliatory mafia. I like the feedback enough though that I wouldn't vote that way yet. Analysts are prime assets and all.

You were answering Barto's question in Al's place, why? And why do you specifically answer about landlubber, the one person in that list who Al didn't read town?

And GH, you stand as the top lynch candidate, what do you have to say about that? Anyone you think should stand in your place? I understand you're voting jht because you feel he just takes up a spot?

[johnhughthom]

Vote: GH

BAYS.

[GeneralHankerchief]

Did you do this and did you see anything you'd missed?

Not before sleep caught up to me. I did it a little while ago and nothing really jumped out at me. Cuth reads town, he's been prodding people and looking for holes.


And GH, you stand as the top lynch candidate, what do you have to say about that? Anyone you think should stand in your place? I understand you're voting jht because you feel he just takes up a spot?

I mean, most of the votes on me are a load of crap very poorly reasoned, but the problem is I think it's more likely that the mafia actually tries to fit in and contribute rather than just bold my name and bow out of the thread for the day. Except for JHT, he'd do that regardless.

[Cuthillius]

You know what? I think Vote:GeneralHankerchief might really be right here.

[Cuthillius]

Unvote: Jarema
Vote: johnhughthom

This is a large part of what stands out to me. This is before the khaan thing, and he just votes. I ask why, someone else gives me a reason, but his only reason, several posts later, is activity. And even then he doesn't respond directly to me. It just seems a little off.

[GeneralHankerchief]

It was in direct response to JHT's most recent post at the time, which I thought was inadequate and didn't need any further explanation.

[Raith Kemmler]

PSA: So I'm kind of sick and my activity will suffer. Will try to get better soon.


Also, I use he/him pronouns ~;p.

Gotcha, will do. Thanks for the info, new around here, so while I disparage the meta, my lack of knowledge of player habits will make me more paranoid since I'm evaluating play style in a vacuum.


You were answering Barto's question in Al's place, why? And why do you specifically answer about landlubber, the one person in that list who Al didn't read town?

Al hasn't bother answered initially, so I thought I'd add insight. The lack of info we have as newcomers is a strength and a weakness. I favor pushing more info out into the town consciousness then playing too close to the chest. LL looks mysterious to me, so I wanted some feedback. I get not wanting to let someone wiggle out of a question, but I'm nosey and will stick my head into things. If you get a gotcha moment, I promise to be restrained and only try to steal credit for it later.

[Winston Hughes]

Just got back from a sixteen-hour day at work (and have to be up for another one in seven hours), so my head's not exactly in the game right now, and the following may be gibberish...

GH could well be scum. He's not said much to convince me otherwise, and khaan's D1 vote switch doesn't look great for him. His point on jht is valid, but the same basic case could be brought against john in most games. The lynch of Beskar and the killing of Csargo would also make sense from a perspective of khaan and GH taking early moves to eliminate capable townies who know them best.

For all that, though, I've got this nagging feeling that it's all a bit too straightforward - that a scum team of GH and khaan doesn't get busted so easily as this. I've also got weighing on me the fact that I've previously damned a town GH by association with a scum khaan. Wish I had the brain-space to process this properly... :sweatdrop:

[GeneralHankerchief]

The lynch of Beskar and the killing of Csargo would also make sense from a perspective of khaan and GH taking early moves to eliminate capable townies who know them best.

I'm honestly a bit insulted that you'd think I would need to resort to those kinds of tactics to do well as scum, especially if khaan was my scumbuddy. :snobby:

[Winston Hughes]

I'm honestly a bit insulted that you'd think I would need to resort to those kinds of tactics to do well as scum, especially if khaan was my scumbuddy. :snobby:

As a conscious strategy? No, I don't imagine for a second you'd go that way.

But anyone playing as scum has a bias in favour of eliminating those who pose the biggest threat. In the moment, I can quite imagine you and khaan making those choices.

[Winston Hughes]

vote: SeveringViper

I'm happy enough with GH for the lynch, but SV is my top pick based on content.

[GeneralHankerchief]

But anyone playing as scum has a bias in favour of eliminating those who pose the biggest threat. In the moment, I can quite imagine you and khaan making those choices.

Unless your ego is overinflated enough to the point where you'd want to keep them alive for a while to string them along and beat the best. :juggle2:

[Winston Hughes]

That's pretty much the only reason I'm not voting for you. :bow:

[El Barto]

Then you admit to having an overinflated ego?

LL has tripped a few wires here and there for people. I'm null currently. I really like the analysis we're getting, but feels a bit like their trying to keep their head out of ring. That could be a conservative townie, or it could be a conciliatory mafia. I like the feedback enough though that I wouldn't vote that way yet. Analysts are prime assets and all.

Vote: Severing Viper. Where'd you go buddy?
As Monsieur de Viper says, where's Al to answer that?

(also, that vote is invalid)

I'm not trying to be conservative, not really. I'm not usually the kind of person who speculates openly in-thread, although I do realize that the limitations on private messaging mean that I ought to be more forthcoming than usual. For what it's worth, I've still got Al Sips as town. Nothing has really changed there. JHT could still be mafia, sure, but he's never easy to read. I'd lynch several people in this thread before him. I've got a vote on Zain because his flinches seem more severe than regular eagerness. He's quite worried about how his words are perceived, and I don't like that.
Bolded: such as…?

I found nothing wrong in Khaan's reasoning about Scarlett and didn't like the other candidates so that's why I voted for her. In hindsight it wasn't wise.

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?
Possibly. Probably. Whether important in-sotry or in terms of abilities, I don't know, but the update (post #331) does say the role was ‘the Duchess’.

What does this mean? What chart?
Oh, it's a jokey answer, a chart made by Kennigit on CFC around five years ago, it might still be on Imageshack.

[landlubber]

Bolded: such as…?.
Zain, for starters. Beyond him, Cuth, Nightbringer, and Severing Viper all strike me as more scummy than JHT.

[Cuthillius]

Zain, for starters. Beyond him, Cuth, Nightbringer, and Severing Viper all strike me as more scummy than JHT.

What about Hankie?

[El Barto]

Also, why and in which order?

btw I've just realised I haven't voted. vote:Autolycus

[Cass_]

Just want to be helpful, I just can't keep up. It's like y'all know rules and strategies I haven't heard of so I'm learning.

Gonna start with this cos I know I'm feeling ruffled, potentially in pretty much the same way. D2 ran away from me too quickly and being busy IRL doesn't help. In most cases I'm willing to give behaviour like this an early pass because I have this exact trouble. Zain, how much mafia have you played? (It might help me understand you more if I knew more about your meta).




Oh dear, I need to get my head in this game.

Here is a compilation of seireikhaan's posts for convenience.

DAY 1



Might slant me towards believing GH is town since there is no real reason to draw associations with your fellow mafia.



Pretty meaningless response.



(Barto had just voted GH)

I would say this is basically just playing into normal meta, although again no real reason to think he would do this towards fellow mafia without need, especially since all the votes were so close on day 1.



I find it hard to believe he would be having this conversation with fellow mafia, so I'm inclined to trust cass.



I would say this is just a meta post.



Again, I would say this is basically meta. It just feels too blatant to be a bluff against either GH or El Barto




This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

I liked this post. The only thing I disagree with is that I didn't really have Scarlett fully clear for this. It's a bad habit carried over from my first game with her - Sorry Miyu! :P :P

Nightbringer, did you get a chance to figure anything further out? How does Al Sips look to you now?



Also, this is a great characterization of my usual activity in mafia games for a while now, although i do tend to get much more active once there are less people around. I tend to find the early game a bit overwhelming.
I tend to find this entire game overwhelming... but fun when I can keep up! Thanks for the meta - it's hard being new...



1. Jarema
2. GeneralHankerchief
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

16 people left. The four that voted for Khaan are probably not mafia. I'm not mafia.

The first day Khaan made an early joke vote.

Later, when GH was tied for the lead, he changed it.


That's good enough for me at the moment Vote: GeneralHankerchief
I pretty much agree, but why you have to cross everybody's name out so soon? I feel like I'm already dead :( :( :( At least things clear up when I die :D Sorry. Brain farts. When does your poison kick in again?



I wouldn't say so, the flavor text does imply her death was in exchange for an important mafia role going down, but flavor is flavor, never wise to read into it unless the host says it might contain hints.

Also, hi, have a votecount:
GeneralHankerchief: edse, Jarema, Al Sipsclar
edse: autolycus
Zain: landlubber
johnhughthom: GeneralHankerchief
SeveringViper: Raith Kemmler (improper formatting)
Al Sipsclar: Zain

And a few questions:


What does this mean? What chart?



You never answered this, Al. Let me add that on your reads list not long before, you had Barto and Cuth among your slight town, for content and scumhunting, respectively, yet in the post quoted, you say you'll be fine with either being lynched? And what about your scum reads? You said this in reply to the post of Barto I quoted right before this, did that make him lose his town rank in your eyes? How/Why?


Did you do this and did you see anything you'd missed?



...? What does this mean? What prompted this?


You were answering Barto's question in Al's place, why? And why do you specifically answer about landlubber, the one person in that list who Al didn't read town?

And GH, you stand as the top lynch candidate, what do you have to say about that? Anyone you think should stand in your place? I understand you're voting jht because you feel he just takes up a spot?

TY for the vote count. I mostly liked this post, even though it kind of felt like #work. I need to go back and look at D1 votes and why everyone's voting GH again. I'm not necessarily against the lynch but I'm not sure it gives us much more information?



Vote: GH

BAYS.

Huh? Is this another meta thing I wouldn't get? Tbh, I'm probably willing to vote GH over my same earlier suspicions but since there's talk of lynching you too it might help if you explain.



Zain, for starters. Beyond him, Cuth, Nightbringer, and Severing Viper all strike me as more scummy than JHT.
I'm not sure what to make of this. Like I said, I kind of get where Zain's coming from. Have to look closer at JHT to comment on the rest.



…But Visor isn't playing.
Lol'd


I'll be fine with El Barto's lynch.
Also landlubber or Cuthillius.

Why? I have been mostly fine with your logic (and can even understand you not liking the difference in our play styles :P) but still have a similar view of El Barto as I did D1, although I'm wary.... The WIFOM is strong with this one. Is there something that I'm missing?

TBH my head's a mess right now. I'll try to vote before EoD but I'll be out on mobile trying to weigh things up as I go, but my vote will probably be last minute again :P

GLGL!

[Al Sipsclar]

Nested quotes are pain.





I'll be fine with El Barto's lynch.
Also landlubber or Cuthillius.
Why and why?
You never answered this, Al.

I did answer that, but...



I'm trying to break out of my activity based meta.
...? What does this mean? What prompted this?

... you did not understand.

That was my response to El Barto's "why and why". It was supposed to show up right under it, but GH posted before me, and I didn't bother to go back and edit in a quote.
My change of heart on El Barto, LL and Cuth was prompted by GH criticizing me for correlating activity to townieness in #360 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675628&viewfull=1#post2053675628). So I thought whom I considered town mostly due to activity, and these three came to mind at that moment.
Mind you, this is likely just a paranoia. I can't get good reads on these guys.

[Al Sipsclar]

I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

[Visor]

GH (Edse, Jarema, Al Sips, JHT, Cuth)
Edse (Auto)
Zain (Landlubber)
JHT (GH)
Al Sips (Zain)
Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
Auto (El Barto)

[Visor]

End of Day Three

An undercover agent was brought out and tried for crimes against the court. They were shocked to find out the truth!

GeneralHankerchief was lynched!

He wasThe Deep AgentBut Upon his death he was actually aligned to a third party.

Alive: 15/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
4. Cuthillius
6. Zain
7. landlubber
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
12. El Barto
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 5/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.

48 hours for day.

[GeneralHankerchief]

https://i.imgur.com/lnWqJqL.png

[El Barto]

Nested quotes are pain.
You get used to it.

I did answer that, but...

... you did not understand.

That was my response to El Barto's "why and why". It was supposed to show up right under it, but GH posted before me, and I didn't bother to go back and edit in a quote.
My change of heart on El Barto, LL and Cuth was prompted by GH criticizing me for correlating activity to townieness in #360 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675628&viewfull=1#post2053675628). So I thought whom I considered town mostly due to activity, and these three came to mind at that moment.
Mind you, this is likely just a paranoia. I can't get good reads on these guys.
OK, you were doing that to not evaluate based on activity alone… and yet, you haven't said why you suspected those people in particular.

I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper
I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)

[Winston Hughes]

GH (Edse, Jarema, Al Sips, JHT, Cuth)
Edse (Auto)
Zain (Landlubber)
JHT (GH)
Al Sips (Zain)
Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
Auto (El Barto)

Al Sips is in there twice.

[Al Sipsclar]

Al Sips is in there twice.

That's because I didn't unvote!

[Winston Hughes]

Why did you vote for SV?

[Al Sipsclar]

OK, you were doing that to not evaluate based on activity alone… and yet, you haven't said why you suspected those people in particular.


Because I was clearing them based mostly on the activity. By default, I suspect everyone whom I don't clear to some degree. Those people in particular had not shown anything redeeming them in my eyes, other than being active, at the moment I wrote that.




I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper
I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)
Because they are my other scum leans listed in #351 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675613&viewfull=1#post2053675613). Like I said, I'd rather play against active scum than with passive town.

[Al Sipsclar]

Why did you vote for SV?
Because nobody was voting for my other choice.

[Winston Hughes]

Because nobody was voting for my other choice.

What do you think of Cass?

[Al Sipsclar]

What do you think of Cass?
Cass is lock town. As is El Barto now that GH flipped scum, based on the D1 vote.

Do I understand it correctly that GH was a third-party member of the mafia faction; that is, all mafia dudes thought he was one of them?
I wonder how the endgame was going to work in the case when all townies are dead, but GH is still alive. Will they have to lynch and kill each other until they find him? I'd love to see that!

[Winston Hughes]

Do I understand it correctly that GH was a third-party member of the mafia faction; that is, all mafia dudes thought he was one of them?

That's my reading. Assume higher scum numbers to compensate.

[Raith Kemmler]

I wonder how the endgame was going to work in the case when all townies are dead, but GH is still alive.

Isn't reduce to parity the standard victory condition? Besides, we don't know what his goal was. End game cannibalize seems unlikely.

[Winston Hughes]

Raith Kemmler

Can I get a leans list from you, pls?

[autolycus]

If we're really in day again and only have nine hours left, we'd better start voting. I'd like to get some response from Golden1knight

[Visor]

It's night.

[autolycus]

ok. I was confused because your write-up said 48 hours for day.

[El Barto]

That's because I didn't unvote!
This cheating cheat cheats!

Because I was clearing them based mostly on the activity. By default, I suspect everyone whom I don't clear to some degree. Those people in particular had not shown anything redeeming them in my eyes, other than being active, at the moment I wrote that.


Because they are my other scum leans listed in #351 (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675613&viewfull=1#post2053675613). Like I said, I'd rather play against active scum than with passive town.
OK, I'll quote you from there:


Severing viper - MIA? duplicate posts D1. Understandable since he's new to the forum, though might also show nervousness.
Nightbringer - some attempt at analysis, but no vote?

Nightbringer is slightly more scummy at that point, then Mr. Viper goes on to reappear after 6 RL days (post #379, not a bad one, actually) and hasn't posted since then. Hardly much to read either way, but he's on the list. Nightbringer has made one post fewer, having #334 as his last where he half-promises to post more once there are fewer players alive. >_<

Do I understand it correctly that GH was a third-party member of the mafia faction; that is, all mafia dudes thought he was one of them?
I wonder how the endgame was going to work in the case when all townies are dead, but GH is still alive. Will they have to lynch and kill each other until they find him? I'd love to see that!
Yes, that's weird. GH is mafia but isn't… or what?

If we're really in day again and only have nine hours left, we'd better start voting. I'd like to get some response from Golden1knight

It's night.
Shhhh! We might have gotten more out of him if he thought it was day. :clown:

[El Barto]

ok. I was confused because your write-up said 48 hours for day.
…to arrive. You need an English-Australian dictionary.

[Golden1Knight]

If we're really in day again and only have nine hours left, we'd better start voting. I'd like to get some response from Golden1knight

Responses? Something specific in mind?

[El Barto]

I can't help but point out that you should OMGUS him. :clown:

[Cass_]

I'm leaving at 3am in the morning and will be driving interstate for the next couple of days so my activity will be scarce.

Wanted to follow up with this -



What content?

I only remember him protecting Al Sipsclair (though now Al Sips voted for his lynching).

Golden1Knight is this the post you were referencing here? What's your current read on Al Sips and Cuth?


This seems rather silly to me. For what purpose would a mafioso move their vote around so much on day 1 for? It's too scatterbrained to be anything scheming. You might be correct that he doesn't care too much if they die or not, but that doesn't necessarily translate to him being mafia.

Vote: Scarlett Aria

While I find the case made by Cuthilius flimsy, I don't necessarily fault him for that in the sense of being guilty. What I *do* find suspicious is others latching onto it without any explanation of why they might agree with it. My eye is on GoldenKnight too, but Scarlett's setting off my bells slightly harder.

Mostly for this. I don't even agree that Al was "under the radar". Under the radar is what I did. If he's flopping around with his vote, he's almost exactly the opposite; it's noisy and draws attention to himself. That doesn't strike me as mafia behavior, and it raises a brow from me that you would hop onto a case with such odd... reasoning.

Alarm bells are ringing for me given the combination of these two posts. I can see the point about defending Al Sips, but that wasn't what stood out to me when I first read through. Especially with Khaan and Scarlett's flips, the whole thing reads to me like potential distancing from a combination of the the other's in the post (Cuth/GK), using Al Sips as the 'focus'. I got the impression from EoD discussions that Khaan is a competent scum player, so I don't think it's necessarily as simple as 'defending Al Sips', although that could simply be the case.


[spoiler]

This is probably the most interesting post to me. While it is, in and of itself, a fair point, I just don't see the reason to stick your neck out like this as mafia. Until this point all of seireikhaan's posts have been very insubstantial, so why suddenly throw yourself into a debate? It just makes your name more visible. While it could be that he simply felt he needed to look more active, I'm inclined to think this may have been provoked by something.

That Scarlett was gotten rid of tonight is probably just because she was a clear innocent after this post.

As such, I'm wanting to look more closely at Al Sipsclar for the time being. I'm going to go through the thread more closely again, but I might as well stick this here for now.

This one stands out as potential distancing also (from Khaan, post flip), for the roundabout approach and again focus on Al Sips. Nightbringer - what did you discover on your re-read? What's your read on GK, Cuth and Al Sips?

Similarly with this one

Not before sleep caught up to me. I did it a little while ago and nothing really jumped out at me. Cuth reads town, he's been prodding people and looking for holes.

Could be GH was protecting Cuth, could be WIFOM cos he knew he was likely going down.

I'm think I'm specifically interested/troubled by the interaction between Cuth and Al Sips earlier ITT. My first impression was that Cuth was FoSing Sips and I found Sips more Town, but later the two of them seemed to kiss and make up without really giving reads on each other, which I found sus. Particularly the way Cuth picked out a post and just said 'I like this, you can be town' or whatever it was.

Anyway, I have Cuth to thank for this gif from our last game (made me smile the whole way through) but basically, this is me right now:


Who's the most Scummy???
17142


Also,


I found nothing wrong in Khaan's reasoning about Scarlett and didn't like the other candidates so that's why I voted for her. In hindsight it wasn't wise.

Does tonight's write-up indicate that Scarlett was an important role?

Edse, which other options didn't you like at the time and why? Did you have any scum leans of your own?

I'll be reading through on and off as we drive, but I won't be able to make huge posts. GL!

[Visor]

End of Night Three

Three corpses! A nightmare.

Cuthillius was killed! Town

Landlubber was poisoned! Town

El Barto was killed! Mafia

Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 8/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.

48 hours for day.

[Golden1Knight]

Wanted to follow up with this -

Golden1Knight is this the post you were referencing here? What's your current read on Al Sips and Cuth?


I believe that Al is aligned to town, keeping in mind solely his vote, after all he helped to lynch a mafioso (which is not definitive evidence, of course). I still need to investigate his posts to make a deeper analysis.

About Cuth, well, he died. Also, I imagine what killed El Barto and why he avoided any suspicion so far.

[Jarema]

El Barto mafia???

[Zain]

Wow 3 deaths... I can't help but suspect that SeveringViper may be scum. Al isn't clear off my radar either, but I do smell Lurker-scum.

Vote:SeveringViper

[Nightbringer]

Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Day End Vote Histories:

Day 3
5 GH (Edse, Jarema, Al Sips, JHT, Cuth)
1 Edse (Auto)
1 Zain (Landlubber)
1 JHT (GH)
1 Al Sips (Zain)
2 Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
1 Auto (El Barto)

Day 2
2 Al Sips (Scarlett, Golden)
1 Edse (Jarema)
2 Scarlett (Khaan, edse)
1 Night (Zain)
1 Jarrema (Auto)
1 Golden (RK)
3 JHT (GH, EB, land)
4 Khaan (WH, Al Sips, JHT, Cass)

If we say that mafia did not vote themselves in the days since day 1 (when it is so random as to be a safe bet and an insurance policy, at least in this meta), then we can come up with this list. I'm hazarding the guess on mafia not voting eachother since there has been plenty of votes being thrown onto a variety of targets which helps leave space to sneak not following the pack on a fellow scum.
Green is voted for or voted against by known scum. Teal is voted for GH, which it appears skum would think was voting for their own.

Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Additionally, looking through the history on Al and EB, they have just been at loggerheads too much for me to think they would practically speaking be mafia buddies.

Also, looking at posts #284 - 292 EB seems to have been making attempts at throwing JHT and auto under the bus to save khaan, and also throwing some doubts at GK as well, making them all seem safer to me.


So, GK, Zain, Raith, Myself, and Viper


I dont know if that means anything, but it's good to remember.

Also, I think El Barto, Scarlett (khaan voted for her) and everyone who voted for Khaan are town. Plus, Edse voted along with Khaan, but this is not a definitive evidence. Yet it is something to watch out.

Golden has some posts that feel a bit reactionary and worried, but I think this finger point straight at EB when there wasn't even a real movement against him is pretty salvaging.


There is some interesting information from a while back that is either an indication that both zain and winston are mafia buddies and really playing a gambit, or is useful regarding zain.


Zain, whilst by no means proven innocent, is not responsible for the murder of Scarlett Aria.

Zain feels genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed, as I am. Based on these, I feel reasonably safe about him.

As to Raith, it just doesn't feel like mafia to me the way he and EB went on at the start.




Kill speculation doesn't usually bear fruit in my experience. Especially in a closed set up. Maybe he looked like a Detective playing it low? Maybe not, but's it's tricky to figure out why mafia do things. If you've got a great explanation that helps frame someone's role, that's good, but just wondering is usually a mindless spiral. The mafia could have literally rolled the dice for all we know.

In this place, mafia do roll the dice for their kills in the beginning, but then people roll dice for their D1 vote and N1 actions.


I support this.

And why don't you vote for Nightbringer then?


Note to self: Do not insult Khaan.

Or vote for him. Or suggest his votes are unfounded. Or say that his former username was better. Or… well, just to play safe, play on another server and use TOR to connect.


You don't look like a pigeon.

:stare:


I think Scarlett is still confused about how vote changing works.
Self demonstration: removing my vote from Cuthalious
Unvote

What?



It should say ‘whom’, not ‘who’.


Commitment scares me. Also reading the thread and looking for a better lead. But good for a default.
I support this.

You can always unvote.


I thought you were making a Good Feathers cartoon reference.
I support this.

Maybe I was…


Explanation:
(…)
I support this.

Kay. I'm gonna put her into solid town then for now.
No, wait, what?

I know I'm innocent, but can't really prove it.

So we're left with viper, who has been very inactive.

Let's see what barto has had to say about him.





I'm really torn about General. His posts sound reasonable, but I don't like his D1 vote and tunneling on JHT.
However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)


Too blatant of an attempt to sway things towards myself over viper, or trying to make sure his inactive buddy isn't the inactive being targeted? After all, having a new player who may get nervous while being mafia be staged as an inactive isn't a bad strategy.

Also, his one substantial post here (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675737&viewfull=1#post2053675737) (I'm sick of nested quotes...) really reads like he knows exactly what has been happening in thread (even if some of the meanings of things are unclear to him). Knowing what's going on without really commenting is often a tell of a fake inactive to me.

So, for the time being.
vote: severingviper

[Jarema]

I like your analysis. I will vote: Zain

[Raith Kemmler]

Vote: GoldenKnight



Golden has some posts that feel a bit reactionary and worried, but I think this finger point straight at EB when there wasn't even a real movement against him is pretty salvaging.

Disagree. With Elly flipped as mafia, the joint effort GH and him put into switching the lynch candidate when GoldenKnight rocketed into contention makes him look terrible. In fact, it's so blatant I'm worried I'm tunneling on this issue and missing some other misdirection. But the simplest explanation would be saving GK, who really hasn't given us anything substantial all game.


El Barto mafia???

Honestly the least surprising of the three reveals to me. Sorry for not trusting you LL! Hope to game again soon. [/QUOTE]

Winston: NP, will give a lean post later today.

[johnhughthom]

Cass is lock town. As is El Barto now that GH flipped scum, based on the D1 vote.

This is why you never use day one votes as evidence in an org game :laugh4:

Vote: Golden1knight

[Raith Kemmler]

Why Golden Knight needs to die Part 2: Expanded Edition

I made a lengthy post on Day 2 pushing for GK to die. What follows looks ever so dirty. GK pushes past the meandering 1 and 2 vote wagons into the lead. And the dislike is palpable.


Brothers in negligence? I don't think they're coördinating anything.

Barto plays dumb and asks a bizarre interpretive question. Probably to try to taint the whole case.


Well, we'll see. Given that edse claims he was attacked, not all inactives can be mafia… well, it's unlikely.

Not even a real defense here, more a defense by association. Golden Knight isn't evil because...not all actives are. Duh.


It seems that I dug my own grave. That's what I get for coming out of the shadows lol

Golden1Knight is lynched. He was town.

Golden goes all maudlin in the thread.


And if Golden ain't scum…? btw thanks for making the waggon slightly more irreversible..

Elly begs the obvious question whenever you lynch like, anyone. Also gets a bit frustrated the wagon is taking off.

This post is all kinds weird even in this mafia hive of commentary.


For the record I don't like this lynch.

Evil Other Faction does not like this lynch. For Reasons!


Counterwaggon on either auto or jht, whichever you prefer…?

Which inactive townie would you prefer to kill on this fine day?


My vote's already on JHT. auto's going to be more responsive to game flow. JHT is going to be JHT.

Let's kill that guy. He hasn't posted a lot. The town won't question it.


Then unvote; vote:johnhughthom.

Sure. Die JHT. Die!


btw, landlubber, as third on the bandwaggon, you're obviously mafia. :clown:

Elly subtexts to alleviate pressure about obvious vote turn around.

In conclusion: Golden Knight needs to die.

[El Barto]

Go scum.

[Golden1Knight]

Excellent arguments. In your place I'd also vote for me.

It's funny to see how all the evidence points to me, really looks like a solved case. However, I'm sorry to disappoint, but this game does not end with my death. I don't know why GH and El Barto decided to protect me, I'm not aligned with the mafia. But now to business.

Nightbringer worked hard to clarify the overall situation and, since the Mafia benefits from chaos and confusion, I believe that he is townie.

Raith seems a bit clean too, since he would not need all this work to get a mislynch. Yet I'm still not sure about it, as a last mafia he would feel greater need to establish himself as townie, especially after Nightbringer's post.

Zain and Severingviper: they deserve a little more attention. Then, I'll vote: severingviper. I still think we should not waste this lynch with me anyway, but it just makes me look even guiltier. Oh well :P

[Raith Kemmler]

It's funny to see how all the evidence points to me, really looks like a solved case. However, I'm sorry to disappoint, but this game does not end with my death. I don't know why GH and El Barto decided to protect me, I'm not aligned with the mafia.

Are you GH's third party buddy then? And he convinced Elly to go along with it? I will change my vote if you can give me another explanation for that weird ass vote moment. It can't just be a frame job on you, that's a lot of risk with little reward. So either they were protecting you, or getting something else. Or they just like to run around changing wagons because they really didn't feel good?/sarcasm


Raith seems a bit clean too, since he would not need all this work to get a mislynch. Yet I'm still not sure about it, as a last mafia he would feel greater need to establish himself as townie, especially after Nightbringer's post.


However, I'm sorry to disappoint, but this game does not end with my death.

Uh, okay. Who said anything about the game ending with your lynch? How on earth did you come to the conclusion we've reached endgame at all with a revealed third party probably infiltrating the mafia in a closed set up?

Is there an ironclad mafia ratio on the org? Or does this thought look like a bizarre assumption to anyone else?

[Nightbringer]

Are you GH's third party buddy then? And he convinced Elly to go along with it? I will change my vote if you can give me another explanation for that weird ass vote moment. It can't just be a frame job on you, that's a lot of risk with little reward. So either they were protecting you, or getting something else. Or they just like to run around changing wagons because they really didn't feel good?/sarcasm





Uh, okay. Who said anything about the game ending with your lynch? How on earth did you come to the conclusion we've reached endgame at all with a revealed third party probably infiltrating the mafia in a closed set up?

Is there an ironclad mafia ratio on the org? Or does this thought look like a bizarre assumption to anyone else?

There isn't an ironclad ratio, but 4 mafia in a game this size does feel about right. 5 would be 25% of the player base.

[SeveringViper]

Long post:
So we're left with viper, who has been very inactive.

Let's see what barto has had to say about him.




However, I'd rather lynch SV or Nightbringer over GH.
Vote: SeveringViper

I'll repeat myself then. Why and why? (well, with 20/20 hindsight I can definitely assure you that GH is not town)


Too blatant of an attempt to sway things towards myself over viper, or trying to make sure his inactive buddy isn't the inactive being targeted? After all, having a new player who may get nervous while being mafia be staged as an inactive isn't a bad strategy.
Or maybe pushing Al about the reasoning for his vote to seem like engaged town? Have you also considered his having in mind to make me, a seeming inactive who probably won't note/respond to the defense, look bad by association should he die?


Also, his one substantial post here (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675737&viewfull=1#post2053675737) (I'm sick of nested quotes...) really reads like he knows exactly what has been happening in thread (even if some of the meanings of things are unclear to him). Knowing what's going on without really commenting is often a tell of a fake inactive to me. (Well, maybe nested quotes wouldn't be such a pain if you could quote them instead of having to manually set them up? -~-) So, what do you mean by fake inactive? Someone who knows what's been happening but has nothing to say? But then there's this:
Zain feels genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed, as I am. Based on these, I feel reasonably safe about him. So you clear someone for seeming "genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed" (and Zain seems to have had a clear idea of where he wants to go, at least, as I will point out next), yet you suspect me for showing I'm "keeping up without really commenting" which, as far as I understand, is pretty close to what makes you like Zain? Or would you say you like someone flailing over just not bothering to talk about what they don't know? (I'll also note that as of this post, our post numbers are equal, for what it's worth. ^^)

As for Zain, he starts off with his first serious (or semi-serious) post by voting Night for inactivity. (Is that why you called him confused? ~;p) Then he says he won't be around that much, which would serve as his reason for the low number of posts:
Though it's hard for me to be very active during this holiday season
And his next two posts are:

I'm not lurking on purpose if I am...

Just want to be helpful, I just can't keep up. It's like y'all know rules and strategies I haven't heard of so I'm learning.
Then later, he comes back to me, but decides to ignore me as inactive and having little to look at. He then adds this:

So I weigh my options, and I feel that activity may be an easy cover-up for scum. I know in the past playing Mafia in person, when I was scum it was easy to fool everybody by obviously drawing attention to myself.
But:

That being said, inactivity is both scummy and intriguing, therefore for the time being...

Vote: Nightbringer
So you consider inactivity scummy enough to vote someone for it early, but later on, you suggest scum would more likely be active?
Then he votes Al based on "instinct"...or perhaps, being one of the three highest posters that isn't his scumbuddy and voteable by the logic he just used.

Finally:
Wow 3 deaths... I can't help but suspect that SeveringViper may be scum. Al isn't clear off my radar either, but I do smell Lurker-scum.

Vote:SeveringViper
So he "can't help but suspect me", going back to lurkers being scummy in the process, while leaving himself open to go after Al again later. Also, Al is still on his radar due to the previously mentioned "instinct", I take it?

In summary, he takes clear positions...that he switches between, and mainly pushes people for inactivity (besides for one unexplained suspicion/vote on Al) despite claiming that he feels scum would easily hide in activity, which he at the same time appears to use to justify suspecting Al. I would say he seems more likely to be somewhat inactive and confused scum, trying to get a mislynch or two with some decent doublethink.
Vote: Zain
If he flips scum, perhaps Nightbringer is next...

[Al Sipsclar]

Bummer about El Barto. Interesting that I got answers for all the three I was unsure about.


This is why you never use day one votes as evidence in an org game :laugh4:


~:doh:

I like the posts today. I'll Vote: Zain for the moment. I can also support Golden's lynch. I feel better about SV now that he's posting.

[Nightbringer]

Long post:
Or maybe pushing Al about the reasoning for his vote to seem like engaged town? Have you also considered his having in mind to make me, a seeming inactive who probably won't note/respond to the defense, look bad by association should he die?

(Well, maybe nested quotes wouldn't be such a pain if you could quote them instead of having to manually set them up? -~-) So, what do you mean by fake inactive? Someone who knows what's been happening but has nothing to say? But then there's this: So you clear someone for seeming "genuinely a bit befuddled and overwhelmed" (and Zain seems to have had a clear idea of where he wants to go, at least, as I will point out next), yet you suspect me for showing I'm "keeping up without really commenting" which, as far as I understand, is pretty close to what makes you like Zain? Or would you say you like someone flailing over just not bothering to talk about what they don't know? (I'll also note that as of this post, our post numbers are equal, for what it's worth. ^^)

As for Zain, he starts off with his first serious (or semi-serious) post by voting Night for inactivity. (Is that why you called him confused? ~;p) Then he says he won't be around that much, which would serve as his reason for the low number of posts:
And his next two posts are:


Then later, he comes back to me, but decides to ignore me as inactive and having little to look at. He then adds this:

But:

So you consider inactivity scummy enough to vote someone for it early, but later on, you suggest scum would more likely be active?
Then he votes Al based on "instinct"...or perhaps, being one of the three highest posters that isn't his scumbuddy and voteable by the logic he just used.

Finally:
So he "can't help but suspect me", going back to lurkers being scummy in the process, while leaving himself open to go after Al again later. Also, Al is still on his radar due to the previously mentioned "instinct", I take it?

In summary, he takes clear positions...that he switches between, and mainly pushes people for inactivity (besides for one unexplained suspicion/vote on Al) despite claiming that he feels scum would easily hide in activity, which he at the same time appears to use to justify suspecting Al. I would say he seems more likely to be somewhat inactive and confused scum, trying to get a mislynch or two with some decent doublethink.
Vote: Zain
If he flips scum, perhaps Nightbringer is next...

So I'm not going to claim my logic is flawless, but you just devoted an entire body of a post to defending yourself and then used that to throw a vote at zain, with me listed a convienient fallback if you are wrong. That is exactly what I mean, you seem exactly informed enough to defend yourself competently WHEN NEEDED, but not informed enough to be throwing your opinions out there otherwise. Now, I'm no genius, but that is more of a tell than I am picking up elsewhere.

[SeveringViper]

So I'm not going to claim my logic is flawless, but you just devoted an entire body of a post to defending yourself and then used that to throw a vote at zain, with me listed a convienient fallback if you are wrong.

...But that's not what it is? Look it it again, and tell me how much is my defending myself and how much is my building a case against Zain, with my noting that Zain flipping scum (so I'd be right) might not look good for you? Or do you disagree with what I said about your seeming quiet defense of Zain?

That is exactly what I mean, you seem exactly informed enough to defend yourself competently WHEN NEEDED, but not informed enough to be throwing your opinions out there otherwise.

And how much did I need to defend myself? I'm not exactly the only one being voted today, and there's no reason that I couldn't just jump onto the GoldenKnight lynch. Instead, I made a case for a vote wagon of my own. Drawing attention by pushing my own case outside of the way town is going is only acting to defend myself? I'm not throwing out my opinions by doing that?


On another note, I missed this curiosity before:

I like your analysis. I will vote: Zain

....Nobody was going after Zain when you posted that? Whose analysis are you talking about? Night's, in which he claimed to read Zain as (confused) town?

[Golden1Knight]

Are you GH's third party buddy then? And he convinced Elly to go along with it? I will change my vote if you can give me another explanation for that weird ass vote moment. It can't just be a frame job on you, that's a lot of risk with little reward. So either they were protecting you, or getting something else. Or they just like to run around changing wagons because they really didn't feel good?/sarcasm

I highlighted the correct answer. I'm just a townie, not even third party, if I claimed such a thing maybe I would be able to fool you for some time and try avoid death, but to claim to be third party is like asking to be eliminated by both town and mafia. In Pirate Ship III we had an excellent example of fake role, which went unnoticed until the end of the game, but this is a case apart and required some skill and experience.


Uh, okay. Who said anything about the game ending with your lynch? How on earth did you come to the conclusion we've reached endgame at all with a revealed third party probably infiltrating the mafia in a closed set up?

Is there an ironclad mafia ratio on the org? Or does this thought look like a bizarre assumption to anyone else?

In the last two games (and the only ones in which I participated), there were only three mafia.

[Winston Hughes]

Zain went nowhere again last night.

[Winston Hughes]

Raith's case on GK is decent enough, but I'm sticking with vote: SeveringViper for now. I just can't see a town mind at work in his posts, whereas GK is giving at least a passable impression.

[edse]

Excellent arguments. In your place I'd also vote for me.

It's funny to see how all the evidence points to me, really looks like a solved case. However, I'm sorry to disappoint, but this game does not end with my death. I don't know why GH and El Barto decided to protect me, I'm not aligned with the mafia. But now to business.

Nightbringer worked hard to clarify the overall situation and, since the Mafia benefits from chaos and confusion, I believe that he is townie.

Raith seems a bit clean too, since he would not need all this work to get a mislynch. Yet I'm still not sure about it, as a last mafia he would feel greater need to establish himself as townie, especially after Nightbringer's post.

Zain and Severingviper: they deserve a little more attention. Then, I'll vote: severingviper. I still think we should not waste this lynch with me anyway, but it just makes me look even guiltier. Oh well :P
The tone in this message sounds very scummy to me, so it's my gut feeling to Vote: Golden1Knight.

Damn you Winston, I had a perfect tally coming up.
3 SeveringViper: Zain, Nightbringer, Golden1Knight
3 Zain: Jarema, SeveringViper, Al Sipsclar
3 Golden1Knight: Raith Kemmler, johnhughthom, edse

3 No Vote: Winston Hughes, autolycus, Cass
Current tally
4 SeveringViper: Zain, Nightbringer, Golden1Knight, Winston Hughes
3 Zain: Jarema, SeveringViper, Al Sipsclar
3 Golden1Knight: Raith Kemmler, johnhughthom, edse

2 No Vote: autolycus, Cass

[SeveringViper]

Raith's case on GK is decent enough, but I'm sticking with vote: SeveringViper for now. I just can't see a town mind at work in his posts, whereas GK is giving at least a passable impression.

An easy thing to say, care to elaborate?

[Winston Hughes]

An easy thing to say, care to elaborate?

You seem disinclined to make declarative statements. Almost everything's phrased as questions, but very little of what you're saying is genuinely interrogative.

I see this as scummy in two complementary ways: firstly, it's a form of softening, like you're shying away from saying anything that you might be pulled up on; secondly, it's like you're trying to do an impression of scumhunting, rather than actually doing it.

More than that, though, I'm trusting my gut on your general tone, and the flow of your contributions over the course of the game so far.

[SeveringViper]

You seem disinclined to make declarative statements. Almost everything's phrased as questions, but very little of what you're saying is genuinely interrogative.

I see this as scummy in two complementary ways: firstly, it's a form of softening, like you're shying away from saying anything that you might be pulled up on; secondly, it's like you're trying to do an impression of scumhunting, rather than actually doing it.

More than that, though, I'm trusting my gut on your general tone, and the flow of your contributions over the course of the game so far.

...What? I made a case against someone and declared my intent to lynch with a vote. The most I have in there are rhetorical questions, because that's the nature of the piece, an accusation, not an interrogation. And you realize you're making a subjective argument anyway, based on your standards of what is or isn't interrogative? At least define them. Quote what lukewarm questions you have in mind and explain.

There are actually ways you can challenge me over that post, can you detect them? :3 I was the first to make a real case against Zain, against the flow of votes, that's not scumhunting? It's shying away from taking a position?

Ok, so you admit (or claim) you're relying on gut feelings. Whatever you wish.

[Zain]

I find it funny that now, of all times, after 3 deaths and now some heat has fallen on SV, now he has chosen to get real active and start playing the game. I mean, there's always some desire to defend yourself but you've gone 0 to 60 lately my friend. Real suspicious, lurker-scum, imho. :bow:

[SeveringViper]

I find it funny that now, of all times, after 3 deaths and now some heat has fallen on SV, now he has chosen to get real active and start playing the game. I mean, there's always some desire to defend yourself but you've gone 0 to 60 lately my friend. Real suspicious, lurker-scum, imho. :bow:

Again, this talk of my defending myself. I will repeat, the "heat" on me was lukewarm at best, and that certainly wasn't my motivation. But feel free to keep pushing it. Are you trying to distract from my actually making a push against you?

[Winston Hughes]

That your questions are rhetorical is exactly why I find them scummy, SV.

Also, I have to wonder why you're sticking by your vote on Zain after I revealed that he stayed home again last night. I mean, he's not lock clear, but I'm pretty dubious that you really think your case on him is better than the one Raith has on GK, even after my revelation.

[SeveringViper]

That your questions are rhetorical is exactly why I find them scummy, SV.

Also, I have to wonder why you're sticking by your vote on Zain after I revealed that he stayed home again last night. I mean, he's not lock clear, but I'm pretty dubious that you really think your case on him is better than the one Raith has on GK, even after my revelation.

But the point I was making was that they weren't supposed to be interrogative, they were part of a case I was making.

And the fact that he didn't go anywhere isn't conclusive. Have you considered that he might be the one scum who didn't submit an action?
Yet I don't think my case is that much better. And in fact, I'd rather avoid my mislynch most of all.
Vote: Golden1Knight Now the votes are tied. autolycus; cass; Would you like to tip the balance?

[Winston Hughes]

Oh, yeah, I forgot to mention: I think I've been poisoned.

(I wasn't told so explicitly, but I have been informed that I have symptoms which sound like the result of poisoning).

[Raith Kemmler]

Or maybe pushing Al about the reasoning for his vote to seem like engaged town? Have you also considered his having in mind to make me, a seeming inactive who probably won't note/respond to the defense, look bad by association should he die?

Seems elaborate.

Viper, you might want to also publish a leans list at this point. Half of your posts coming out today when a case was pushed against you makes you look dirty.


There isn't an ironclad ratio, but 4 mafia in a game this size does feel about right. 5 would be 25% of the player base.

Thanks.


Zain went nowhere again last night.

Cool. Zain's looking like the town Thoreau to me.

[SeveringViper]

Seems elaborate.

Viper, you might want to also publish a leans list at this point. Half of your posts coming out today when a case was pushed against you makes you look dirty.

Tactics can be elaborate.

No point, I acted on what I have, that's what you get. And I've repeatedly responded to the idea of my reacting to pressure.

[Winston Hughes]

But the point I was making was that they weren't supposed to be interrogative, they were part of a case I was making.

A case that was much heavier on the rhetoric than the substance. And your switch to GK now shows you had no reason not to follow Raith's case in the first place.

Makes me wonder if you went for Zain because you didn't want to tie yourself too closely to Raith (who still hasn't given me that reads list, btw).

[SeveringViper]

A case that was much heavier on the rhetoric than the substance. And your switch to GK now shows you had no reason not to follow Raith's case in the first place.

Makes me wonder if you went for Zain because you didn't want to tie yourself too closely to Raith (who still hasn't given me that reads list, btw).

Oh, you're trying that now? Tell me exactly where and how my case lacks substance. So? I had no reason to vote along with him either, GK had already gotten a few votes and I wanted to bring another suspect into view. And also, if I was scum, why wouldn't I have just followed Raith instead of calling attention to myself by suddenly pushing a case of my own? Even if you say I was trying to protect GK, it was clear there was little chance of that, why would I risk myself?

That assumes I have ties to Raith I would be worried about. Where are they, then?

[SeveringViper]

Oh, and...


I like your analysis. I will vote: Zain
....Nobody was going after Zain when you posted that? Whose analysis are you talking about? Night's, in which he claimed to read Zain as (confused) town?

I would like an answer about this Jarema;

[Jarema]

Green is voted for or voted against by known scum. Teal is voted for GH, which it appears skum would think was voting for their own.
Alive: 12/20
1. Jarema
3. Golden1Knight
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper


I think it is crucial part.

I can agree that someone else may be better candidate than unvote: Zain. For example, vote: Golden1knight

[Winston Hughes]

Oh, you're trying that now? Tell me exactly where and how my case lacks substance.

The sole point of substance I can see is that Zain has been inconsistent in his attitude to activity (something I would take as null at worst - in my experience, scum are more concerned with looking consistent than townies are).

Seems like everything else you posted (including the spoiler tags) was just trying to make that look a more meaningful case than it was.


So? I had no reason to vote along with him either, GK had already gotten a few votes and I wanted to bring another suspect into view.

And also, if I was scum, why wouldn't I have just followed Raith instead of calling attention to myself by suddenly pushing a case of my own? Even if you say I was trying to protect GK, it was clear there was little chance of that, why would I risk myself?

That assumes I have ties to Raith I would be worried about. Where are they, then?

As with everything you've said today, this all reads like you searching for an out, looking for details in the case against you that can be attacked using rhetoric and WIFOM. Maybe this has worked for you in the past - I've certainly seen others escape the noose playing like that - but there's nothing townie about it in my book.

As for the Raith connection, that was just me thinking out loud. Both of you are on my suspect list, Raith's case on GK could be seen as a response to your being the default lynch today, and I know that scum tend to worry about acting in too concerted a manner. Since I'm not rating my life expectancy so highly at this stage, I figured it wise to give voice to this thought.

[SeveringViper]

The sole point of substance I can see is that Zain has been inconsistent in his attitude to activity (something I would take as null at worst - in my experience, scum are more concerned with looking consistent than townies are).
It's more than that. He was inconsistent in the reasons he wanted to lynch people, and in a strange way, going from voting someone for inactivity early to claiming activity is a easy way for scum to hide later (when it actually would be the other way around, scum find it easier to be active early when there's less they have to worry about and would want to try and slow down as the game goes on to avoid slipping up). He says he'll ignore me for having little to analyze, then goes back and votes me for having little. And there's also how in between, he voted Al on "instinct", after making a point of suggesting activity could be a scum tactic. Now look who's one of the three highest posters, behind Scarlett (a newcomer who he might not see as a threat) and Barto, who was scum? So it's not just his changing attitude to inactivity, but that it looks like excuses for how he wants to vote.


Seems like everything else you posted (including the spoiler tags) was just trying to make that look a more meaningful case than it was.

As with everything you've said today, this all reads like you searching for an out, looking for details in the case against you that can be attacked using rhetoric and WIFOM. Maybe this has worked for you in the past - I've certainly seen others escape the noose playing like that - but there's nothing townie about it in my book.

As for the Raith connection, that was just me thinking out loud. Both of you are on my suspect list, Raith's case on GK could be seen as a response to your being the default lynch today, and I know that scum tend to worry about acting in too concerted a manner. Since I'm not rating my life expectancy so highly at this stage, I figured it wise to give voice to this thought.

Well, yes, everything in there was part of building a meaningful case. Now that I've explained it a little more (hopefully), do you still think it was inflated? (And the spoiler tags were to make it look meaningful, really? Would you rather it have been a open wall of text?)

And yes, I'm attacking the arguments against me, I'm not just going to roll over and die when every person counts, even now, as we don't know how many scum are left or what they can do. And everything I've said has some reasoning behind it. What you quote and describe as WIFOM are statements of what I was thinking and what I would logically do as scum. Two scum are dead, and a 3p/scum as well, does it make any sense for the surviving scum to risk themselves? If anything, you're relying on rhetoric, as I had to ask you to provide your refutation of my case. And now you did, and I countered. Your move?

So you think Raith brought up the GK case to take the attention off me? Note, however, that he was pushing GK before this day even started. But yes, scum don't want to appear too close in thought, yet that isn't the case. Raith provided reasoning that I could simply have agreed with and voted by if my concern was protecting myself.

[Nightbringer]

But the point I was making was that they weren't supposed to be interrogative, they were part of a case I was making.

And the fact that he didn't go anywhere isn't conclusive. Have you considered that he might be the one scum who didn't submit an action?
Yet I don't think my case is that much better. And in fact, I'd rather avoid my mislynch most of all.
Vote: Golden1Knight Now the votes are tied. autolycus; cass; Would you like to tip the balance?

you need to unvote first or that vote isn't going to count. :)

[Al Sipsclar]

Zain went nowhere again last night.

Why did you track Zain two nights in a row? How is he more interesting than others?

[SeveringViper]

you need to unvote first or that vote isn't going to count. :)

...Right, thanks ^^; Unvote: Zain Vote: Golden1Knight

[autolycus]

Sure, I'll tip the balance :)

vote:Golden1knight

[Winston Hughes]

Why did you track Zain two nights in a row? How is he more interesting than others?

Snap decision. I figured if he was scum, they'd send him to perform the kill, because they wouldn't expect me to track him again. And if he was town, I could see how easily he might end up as lynchbait today.

Given how last night turned out, it's clear now I should have gone for someone else. When nobody mentioned a poisoning yesterday, I figured khaan's death was the end of that - one thing that's bothering me now is why landlubber didn't know (or didn't say) he'd been poisoned. So, I was working on the assumption of anti-town forces making only one kill attempt.

Anyhows, at least it looks good for Zain. Even if landlubber's poisoning was a delayed kill (likely, I think) and El Barto's death was a vig (slightly more dubious about this), there's still the Cuthillius kill and my apparent poisoning to account for. I wouldn't say he's lock town on that basis, but being cleared of all that puts him among the probable townies in my book.

[Winston Hughes]

Well, yes, everything in there was part of building a meaningful case. Now that I've explained it a little more (hopefully), do you still think it was inflated? (And the spoiler tags were to make it look meaningful, really? Would you rather it have been a open wall of text?)

Still boils down to him being inconsistent, which is not something I see as a scumtell. It is, however, something I've noticed scum tend to pick up on when looking for a patsy to mislynch. Townies can also make that kind of case, obviously. But given the timing and the situation (and my estimation of your abilities), the way the case was presented is not something I'm going to dismiss as a point against you.


And yes, I'm attacking the arguments against me, I'm not just going to roll over and die when every person counts, even now, as we don't know how many scum are left or what they can do. And everything I've said has some reasoning behind it. What you quote and describe as WIFOM are statements of what I was thinking and what I would logically do as scum. Two scum are dead, and a 3p/scum as well, does it make any sense for the surviving scum to risk themselves?

What risk? You were already catching votes, and you'd surely have known that simply jumping on the first counter-wagon to appear would not have made you look any less suspicious.


If anything, you're relying on rhetoric, as I had to ask you to provide your refutation of my case. And now you did, and I countered.Your move?

I've not been trying to persuade others to lynch you, if that's what you're suggesting. If I wanted to, I'm pretty confident I could've dropped a case which would have done exactly that. But it wouldn't have been an entirely honest case. It would've been fluffed up and made to look like more than it was. It would have meant pretending to be more sure than I was. And the same is true now. I could paint you up much scummier than I have been, but the fact is that you've preserved a good deal of doubt in my mind about whether or not you really are a wrong-un.

Nevertheless, and despite having narrowed the margin on GK, you're still my top pick as scum for two reasons. Firstly, because you've only given me cause for doubt after starting to address me directly. Secondly, because I'm pretty sure you're good enough to make these plays as scum.

[SeveringViper]

Still boils down to him being inconsistent, which is not something I see as a scumtell. It is, however, something I've noticed scum tend to pick up on when looking for a patsy to mislynch. Townies can also make that kind of case, obviously. But given the timing and the situation (and my estimation of your abilities), the way the case was presented is not something I'm going to dismiss as a point against you.
I see. Any argument can be boiled down to its base idea, I must note.


What risk? You were already catching votes, and you'd surely have known that simply jumping on the first counter-wagon to appear would not have made you look any less suspicious.

I believe I addressed this. At the point I made that post, I was far from the sure lynch from that day due to that counter-wagon. And I simply wouldn't be jumping on a wagon, there was a case presented which I could have easily agreed with as scum rather than entering the spotlight as I did.


I've not been trying to persuade others to lynch you, if that's what you're suggesting. If I wanted to, I'm pretty confident I could've dropped a case which would have done exactly that. But it wouldn't have been an entirely honest case. It would've been fluffed up and made to look like more than it was. It would have meant pretending to be more sure than I was. And the same is true now. I could paint you up much scummier than I have been, but the fact is that you've preserved a good deal of doubt in my mind about whether or not you really are a wrong-un.
I wasn't, I was saying that in your challenging me, you were using rhetoric until I drew out the reasoning you had. Fair enough, then.

Nevertheless, and despite having narrowed the margin on GK, you're still my top pick as scum for two reasons. Firstly, because you've only given me cause for doubt after starting to address me directly. Secondly, because I'm pretty sure you're good enough to make these plays as scum.
1. Alright, I see we've gone as far as we can. 2. Heh, I'll take that as a compliment. I can only ask that you reconsider before you continue pushing this.

[Winston Hughes]

That's more like it. Now you're playing me. If scum, you've got game. The problem, for both of us if you are town, is that I suspect you've got that kind of game as scum. Right now, your best bet for reducing my suspicions is to show me some townie mindset on something other than your own situation.

Even if GK is scum, there's no chance he's the last. Who else would you pick, and why?


I see. Any argument can be boiled down to its base idea, I must note.

Some arguments can. Whether or not they are good arguments depends on whether or not the base idea is any good. And an argument based on one weak idea, dressed up as if it's more than that, is a pretty typical scum device.

[SeveringViper]

That's more like it. Now you're playing me. If scum, you've got game. The problem, for both of us if you are town, is that I suspect you've got that kind of game as scum. Right now, your best bet for reducing my suspicions is to show me some townie mindset on something other than your own situation.

Even if GK is scum, there's no chance he's the last. Who else would you pick, and why?

Some arguments can. Whether or not they are good arguments depends on whether or not the base idea is any good. And an argument based on one weak idea, dressed up as if it's more than that, is a pretty typical scum device.

I've already shown I'd have Zain lynched, and I was ready to return to that next. If Zain flips scum, I would look at Nightbringer next, as I get the sense of a connection. As of now, the lynch will be on GK. If he flips scum, good, Raith is in a pretty good position. If not, I'll be looking at his case again, but similar to something you mentioned, being wrong is something town might do as well. And Jarema hasn't impressed me with his posts today. That's where I stand.

I see. I agree my base point of his inconsistency isn't enough to make a case from, but the argument I built on it is. And that's my point, by boiling it down to its base, you strip it of its strength and meaning.

[Winston Hughes]

Take Zain and GK off the table with no reveal.

Who do you lynch?

[SeveringViper]

Take Zain and GK off the table with no reveal.

Who do you lynch?

Jarema, then Nightbringer, then I'm out of ideas with what I've seen so far.

[Winston Hughes]

Why those two?

[SeveringViper]

Why those two?

Jarema for oddities today, Nightbringer because of thoughts I have about connections between him and Zain, and a point of connection between him and Jarema from Jarema's side.

[Golden1Knight]

You're killing the wrong person guys. Raith, you better explain yourself after killing a humble townie like me with such a fierce inquisition :p

[Raith Kemmler]

You're killing the wrong person guys. Raith, you better explain yourself after killing a humble townie like me with such a fierce inquisition :p

I was wrong? But let's answer the real implication.

You are revealed as town. (Which is sounding slightly more plausible with this post, but I'd probably advocate to lynch you later anyway for strategy.) My mafia potential profile rises yes? Well ideally, I'd like to see two or so more rounds, or at least get a mafia clinch with this or the next day. What if the town, which probably has me somewhere in a middling range, I'm not totally sure beyond an endorsement here and Winston squinting at me,

What if they kill me tomorrow?

Here's the thing Golden.

I don't care.

Winning the game is finding mafia. Me winning is finding a mafia. Me winning is, if I don't get anyone before I sleep, my lean list has a mafia I.D.'d. That's a step to town victory.

Your claimed goal is terrible unless you're mafia. The mafia could kill anyone each night. Crazy survivalist lurking townies are crazy. The mafia leave them alive because they're awesome cover. Because they hamper victory. So if you are revealed town and then I get lynched tomorrow and am bamboozled about these maifa? Well, I'll see in the QT. And I'll say, I hope we both play better next time. Maybe I'll read you better. Maybe I'll find someone. Maybe you'll, you know, find the mafia. Which is the real goal of the town Not, oh look I made end game. Getting night killed early as town often is a mark of honor. It means you're a threat.


Even if GK is scum, there's no chance he's the last.

I agree, but explain? Nightbringer seemed modestly confident the opposite was possible (but not assured).


Tactics can be elaborate.

I guess. I'll take another look.

[Al Sipsclar]

Coloring in my leans.

D1:
EB (Cuth, Khaan
JHT (WH
RK (Sev, Night
Scarlet (Auto
Beskar (landlubber, Csargo, GH
AL SIps (edse, Scarlet, Cass
GH (Beskar, Raith, EB
Cuth (GK, Jarema
WH (JHT
Cass ( Al Sips
Sev (Zain

D2:
2 Al Sips (Scarlett, Golden
1 Edse (Jarema
2 Scarlett (Khaan, edse
1 Night (Zain
1 Jarrema (Auto
1 Golden (RK
3 JHT (GH, EB, land
4 Khaan (WH, Al Sips, JHT, Cass

D3:
GH (Edse, Jarema, JHT, Cuth)
Edse (Auto)
Zain (Landlubber)
JHT (GH)
Al Sips (Zain)
Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
Auto (El Barto)

D4:
Golden1Knight (Raith Kemmler,JHT,edse,SeveringViper,Jarema,autolycus)
SeveringViper (Zain,Nightbringer,Golden1Knight,Winston Hughes)
Zain(Al Sipsclar)

[Al Sipsclar]

Vote: SeveringViper

[Visor]

Sorry for the delay, cricket was on.

Tallying now.

[Visor]

5 Sev (Zain, Night, Golden, Winston, Al Sips
6 Golden (Raith, JHT, Edse, Sev, Jar, Auto

[Visor]

End of Day Four

A fatal mistake for the brave knight.

GoldenKnight was lynched! Town

Alive: 11/20
1. Jarema
6. Zain
8. edse
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
14. Winston Hughes
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 9/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.
3. Golden1Knight, lynched D4, town.

18 hours for night.



I will be on a flight when night is over so it will be shorter than usual.

[Golden1Knight]

Good luck! :)

[Visor]

End of Night Four

Two more corpses.

Edse and Winston Hughes were killed! Town

Alive: 9/20
1. Jarema
6. Zain
10. Raith Kemmler
13. Al Sipsclar
15. Nightbringer
16. Autolycus
17. Cass
18. Johnhughthom
19. Severing viper

Dead: 11/20
11. Beskar, lynched D1, town.
9. Csargo, killed N1, town.
5. seireikhaan, lynched D2, mafia.
20. Scarlett Aria, killed N2, town.
2. GeneralHankerchief, lynched D3, third party.
12. El Barto, killed N3, mafia.
4. Cuthillius, killed N3, town.
7. landlubber, poisoned N3, town.
3. Golden1Knight, lynched D4, town.
8. edse, killed N4, town.
14. Winston Hughes, killed N4, town.




Bit longer of a day today.

[Nightbringer]

vote:severing viper for all the same reasons.

That said, Al Sipsclar, I'm not sure what the colors mean in your post above, can you clarify please.

[Al Sipsclar]

Town
Slight town
Neutral
Slight scum

D1:
EB (Cuth, Khaan
JHT (WH
RK (Sev, Night
Scarlet (Auto
Beskar (landlubber, Csargo, GH
AL SIps (edse, Scarlet, Cass
GH (Beskar, Raith, EB
Cuth (GK, Jarema
WH (JHT
Cass ( Al Sips
Sev (Zain

D2:
2 Al Sips (Scarlett, Golden
1 Edse (Jarema
2 Scarlett (Khaan, edse
1 Night (Zain
1 Jarrema (Auto
1 Golden (RK
3 JHT (GH, EB, land
4 Khaan (WH, Al Sips, JHT, Cass

D3:
GH (Edse, Jarema, JHT, Cuth)
Edse (Auto)
Zain (Landlubber)
JHT (GH)
Al Sips (Zain)
Sev (Winston, Al Sips)
Auto (El Barto)

D4:
Golden1Knight (Raith Kemmler,JHT,edse,SeveringViper,Jarema,autolycus)
SeveringViper (Zain,Nightbringer,Golden1Knight,Winston Hughes,Al Sipsclar)

Vote: SeveringViper

[Jarema]

vote: SeveringViper. You were among top picks yesterday, and you are still today.

[SeveringViper]

Well, as I said before, Zain's not visiting anyone doesn't make him clear, but I feel there are better options. For one, Jarema. You haven't completely answered my questions from before. And now, you suddenly decide to vote me as a top pick from yesterday, despite not even mentioning me then, and only voting now after a couple votes have already been placed.

Vote: Jarema

[johnhughthom]

Vote: Jarrema

Looking back at your posts, you've been quite flip floppy, like you don't want to say anything too assertive, or focus on one person, that could be used against you.

[Jarema]

well, maybe?

now, I will stay with my vote.

[Jarema]

For one, Jarema. You haven't completely answered my questions from before.


I did.

[Nightbringer]

JHT, do you mind showing some examples of what you mean, because I haven't noticed that myself.

[Al Sipsclar]

Flip-flopping is a fine townie behavior. Townies can't be assertive, they don't have enough info.

Jarema's townie behavior this game was certified by an independent bipartisan commission consisting of landlubber (town) and El Barto (scum). Also works for him that he was the second on the wagon lynching GH. Though, if GH was not known to the mafia faction as one of them, that doesn't help. He also voted edse on D2, which was a bad vote, IMO.

I'd lynch SV before Jarema.

[johnhughthom]

JHT, do you mind showing some examples of what you mean, because I haven't noticed that myself.

Well, I just brought up all Jarema's posts and he seemed to vote for someone new every round, halfheartedly and like he didn't really believe it.

In saying that, it wasn't a strong case, and his response seemed townie Jarema to me, so I'll be unvoting after I look through a few more players.

[Al Sipsclar]

Nightbringer, who'd you lynch if not SV?

[landlubber]

For any of you that are interested, there is a game in signups (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?p=14098927#post14098927) on another site that could use a few more players!

[Nightbringer]

I think I might actually go towards Cass after severing.

She was very quiet and just jumped in at the last minute to throw a vote on khaan once he was clearly going to die anyway (although with a fair excuse of being busy), and seemed to be doing a little bit to sway people away from el barto.
She's also been doing a lot of asking other people's opinions, rather than expressing her own, which reads (to me) as a scum tactic to avoid putting your neck out, while looking active.

See these two posts in particular (both are awash in nested quotes)
one (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675826&viewfull=1#post2053675826)
two (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675965&viewfull=1#post2053675965)

She's also gone very quiet recently with focus shifting elsewhere, possibly to try to hide out as the last scum when no attention is directed her way.

[Zain]

For any of you that are interested, there is a game in signups (http://forums.civfanatics.com/showthread.php?p=14098927#post14098927) on another site that could use a few more players!

Landlubber go join the Mansion!

As I've said these last few turns, I believe SeveringViper was lurker-scum, now he's active/defensive scum.

Therefore, Vote:SeveringViper

[Al Sipsclar]

I think I might actually go towards Cass after severing.

He was very quiet and just jumped in at the last minute to throw a vote on khaan once he was clearly going to die anyway (although with a fair excuse of being busy), and seemed to be doing a little bit to sway people away from el barto.
He's also been doing a lot of asking other people's opinions, rather than expressing his own, which reads (to me) as a scum tactic to avoid putting your neck out, while looking active.

See these two posts in particular (both are awash in nested quotes)
one (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675826&viewfull=1#post2053675826)
two (https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showthread.php?151176-Rise-of-The-Snake-Cult-In-Play&p=2053675965&viewfull=1#post2053675965)

He's also gone very quiet recently with focus shifting elsewhere, possibly to try to hide out as the last scum when no attention is directed his way.

Yeah, I don't like that tactic of her either. However, Cass is my strongest town lean. khaan was tied to JHT before her vote, and it'd go to the overtime without her breaking the tie. She didn't have to do it. Too bad she hasn't voted since.

[autolycus]

For me it's between severingviper and Raith.

[johnhughthom]

Vote: Zain

Reading back through most players posts, Zain's have virtually zero actual content.

[Zain]

Vote: Zain

Reading back through most players posts, Zain's have virtually zero actual content.

You did not unvote :bow:

Also, one can say the same about you, perhaps a bit more involved than myself but still fairly lurker-scum.

[Al Sipsclar]

Vote: Zain

Reading back through most players posts, Zain's have virtually zero actual content.

I only clearing Zain in the memory of Winston who spent two long nights tracking Zain with no results other than the apparent snakebite. Otherwise, I agree with you. Zain's voting record is also poor - I'd like to see how SV flips to decide if it's worth anything.

[Al Sipsclar]

You did not unvote :bow:

Also, one can say the same about you, perhaps a bit more involved than myself but still fairly lurker-scum.

You don't have to unvote (in this game, at least). I agree that JHT is content-free, but he lynched two scum, and that counts for something.

[Al Sipsclar]

For me it's between severingviper and Raith.

I'm uneasy about Raith as well. However, I find it unlikely that the last 1-2 remaining scum would push for G1K mislynch so actively as RK did. I'd expect them to be more opportunistic.