So, betcha feel bad now, Pizzaguy! You sure embarrassed yourself, didn't ya, you arrogant little man! Couldn't hit the broad side of a barn, Worst townie ever, yada yada yada.....
Yeah. I know. I deserve that.
Well, let's see... where do I even begin?
I've had a few days to sulk and feel extremely foolish. You couldn't have beaten me up more than I did, so don't you worry about that. When I am correct, I celebrate. When I am wrong, I am humbled, as always.
In an effort to deal with the pain and humiliation of the Chicago Soiree Disaster, I spent several hours watching "Smoking Gun Presents: World's Dumbest Criminals". So now I feel a lot better about myself and my stupidity, because nothing I have done has ever been that dumb. I make foolish oversights at times, especially when I am overreaching and working too much on something without much sleep, but thankfully I am not a total moron. (Praise 00Jebus, and knock on wood.)
And as bad as some of my accusations were, I never accused an entire nation of having weapons of mass destruction, conquered the same nation, and couldn't find them. So, you know, when the leader of the free world pulls one of those boners, suddenly accusing the wrong player or players doesn't seem so bad in the scheme of things.
:sweatdrop:
Still, I kicked myself pretty hard for several hours in sheer embarrassment. Don't you worry. Don't you worry. I took myself down several notches, and had like a sick feeling in my stomach. I took it pretty hard. It's just a game but you know, when you lose so fantastically badly, it does make you look foolish. And then when you're so burnt out after 18 hours of overworking yourself, that you can't keep basic facts straight, it's time to pack it up and hang your head in shame. Just pack it up. Don't you worry. I'm a much humbler pizzaguy now. I choked on humble pizza pie, and yeah. My bad. Hold the pepperonis next time. No tip sir, this one is on the house.
If I may, I have to share this story from the "dumbest criminals" thing.
There was this pair of armed robbers on the program who showed up at a muffler shop and demanded some money. Well the place had just opened and the register was pretty empty, so they wouldn't even have cash to make change with until the manager arrived. Well the robbers told the muffler man to call thier cell phone when thier boss got in, and they would come back and rob them later.
Yup. You guessed it. The muffler guys call the cops, and then called the robbers back, who show up to rob the place again. That's when a plainclothes police officer tells them to drop the gun. And they don't. They get shot in the legs, and after a trip to the emergency room, it's off to jail with two of the biggest idiots, ever.
And then there was the story of a guy who robbed a store with a stapler gun.
Oh, but it gets much better. Then he went to a restaurant next door, where he changed his clothes. This restaurant, by the way, was the same one he had applied at for a job the day before. Then he crossed the street in his new outfit... to his house. Yes, this all happened within a few hundred feet from his house. You could see all 3 locations with one camera shot.
There was a police standoff for 45 minutes before he gave up.
I feel much better about myself now. :2thumbsup:
:medievalcheers: :shakehands:
What's the lesson? Think things through before you go ahead and do them. And you can learn from mistakes, from others, and especially your own mistakes. So, without further ado, onto more productive lines of thought: where exactly did I go wrong?
I've figured it out. It's my responsibility to re-examine what happened so I don't blow too many more games for you guys. There were many factors. These are symptoms, not excuses:
1. Too many games at once.
I was playing 4 games at once at one point, I believe, possibly 5 due to another forum. That will confuse the bejeezus out of you.
I kept mixing up who was who and in what game... I kept confusing Beefy between Ephesus and Chicago, and also Boudica. I forgot key facts because I had too many to keep straight. Especially near the end when I just imploded from stress and lack of sleep.
Even after the results of Chicago were posted, I still had Beefy's name stuck in my head, (It's not what you think. You're disgusting.) and after reading who won, I still thought it was Beefy for a few minutes, leading to more than a couple embarrassing and bizarre looking posts before I left. Blame 4 hours of sleep in a freezing garage and nearly 18 hours straight of juggling the games.
So, that was really dumb. From now on, I pledge to play at most 2 games. End of story. That was really overworking myself. I sincerely apologize for messing that up. Overly enthusiastic. I will be pacing myself from now on.
2. Single-mindedness about things.
When I detected a lot of potentially scummy behavior from people, I almost shut out all the other possible suspects, especially in Chicago. This is dangerous. I will never make this mistake again. Pinky swear.
3. Faulty assumptions.
I have this... mafia analysis system that I'm working on. It's nearly "complete" but it will never be really finished. The tool works very well in identifying scummy behavior and cataloguing and analyzing player actions. It's actually more reliable than Holmes, from what I've seen already. I know that's an big claim to make, especially with several examples of misleading results.
Where did it go wrong? Where did it go right?
Well, it correctly identified Andres in one game... Time will tell if I made the correct interpretation in another game. I think I made a pretty solid case, and many people agreed with me. And I've been using a limited form of this system to detect mafioso in other games. It wasn't until Chicago when a single mafia had truly escaped my detection system. Although, if I had interpreted the data correctly, and remembered that over 50% of all mafia are lurkers, and that 33% are "total" lurkers, I would have nailed them too instead of some innocent peoples.
So, what happened in Chicago?
I had a bias; I looked only at Andres and Tincow when their behavior smelled scummy to me, and judged them before doing an objective analysis. (And they both got a sincere, if tired and error-laden apology... rather silly in retrospect) When I got an inkling, an instinct, I followed it. Everyone does this, all of you made false accusations and votes at one point, I was no different. I was just much more enthusiastic about it. Ha ha ha ha..... :laugh4:
:sad:
The difference was, I had this brand new toy, and I was too proud of it's successes so far. Then I used it to "prove" my accusation against Andres and Tincow, a total misuse of the system.
Well thats bad reasoning. You don't judge someone and then come up with evidence, you come up with evidence and then you question them. I was too hasty... far too hasty... and I let my instinctual decision put a terrible, terrible bias in the results. I viewed everything they did as scummy, and as I got louder, they got more defensive. Why shouldn't they? Instead of looking for what they did that was scummy, I wrote down what they did, and assumed it was scummy.
They got defensive, and so I sensed blood. I went all out after them.... and used my new toy to create a grand inquisition against them. A terrible, terrible waste of a very useful tool... destroying the very purpose of HAVING such a tool. It's precisely this sort of idiocy that it's supposed to prevent!
And, the thing is still a work in progress. Is it really so surprising that it will give false readings on occasion? There is no foolproof system. Beefy gets lynched a lot and is a scapegoat in MANY games, because of his behavior. But that's just beefy being beefy!
Although he behaves like a lot of the scum that are out there, that doesn't mean he is so. It's the exception to the general rule! So, I have to get a better reading on Beefy, who falls outside of normal analysis, and sharpen my tool to include the variances in his behavior as compared to the norm. I had to do the same thing for Seireikhaan already. There will be other small holes I have to fill too, to make the system more accurate. How is the Askthepizzaguy system any better than random guesses?
I have identified 8/10 of the mafia that I've gone after. That's a pretty good record, and it's not based on guessing. It's based on evidence... which gives much better results. That's ignoring the townies that got falsely accused, but... I can fix that gap too, by saving the game analysis for the end of the game! It will have more evidence and less innocents to pick from.
So, the work in progress is 4/5 effective. I can get it up to 9/10, I will wager. Just give me a chance.
I've learned a lot about the gaps in the system, and I can plug them. And I already have.
4. Lurkers
The system easily, easily, detects bad attendance and lurking behavior. That's not the problem. You don't even need a "system" to identify lurkers, just check the post count. The problem is that the person seeing the results had a bais against lurkers. My thoughts, perhaps yours:
"Lurkers are scummy, so they will be lynched. They will be WOGed. No mafia would risk lurking at this stage of the game."
Uh huh. Well, that didn't pan out correctly, did it? And I blame myself. Were it not for my misplaced passion against the Tincow/Andres duo, some of you might have voted the worthless townies instead. My influence may have single handedly handed the game to the lurkers.
This is madness. The analysis system, had I used it on everyone with an unbiased eye, not judging players prematurely, and remembering how often lurkers are mafia, would have detected them and I could have made the correct assessment. But the man behind the machine wasn't thinking objectively.
I even made sure to note that well over 50% of mafia use lurking as their strategy, and it's a terrible strategy. It is! It's a terrible strategy and people should know better! That's why the system detected them as lurkers... but I made a judgment call. A judgment call that turned out to be wrong.
BUT! Everyone, not just me... everyone gave the lurkers a pass. Most everyone assumed, as I did, that if they were lurking, they would be lynched or murdered or WOG'ed... and they had better suspects. BAD THINKING. That wasn't just me. Sigurd and Boudica used a tired old strategy that will never work on me again, and most of you veterans would have detected, but because it's so obviously scummy, no one really went after them, save for a few votes here and there. Some of you voted the lurkers, and bravo. You deserve a slice of pizza and a cookie. I will never make the mistake of going easy on the lurkers ever again.
Lesson learned:
Destroy the lurkers. No exceptions. No excuses. No vacations. NOTHING!!! Clear your schedule or don't sign up! I will be ok with being lynched for being a lurker, because I will come back and continue contributing!
Now... that leaves the people who have participated to some extent... thats where the post analysis system really does shine. It doesn't nail lurkers, except to tell me they are lurking. The database system analyzes, it does not play the game for me. So we need to nail the lurkers instead of assume they will be WOGed or lynched later.
Then, we can focus on who's posting scummy. I changed my definition of "scummy" to consider that Beefy acts like Beefy, and then I also won't start an analysis of players, like Tincow and Andres, with a prejudiced opinion of them. I will be more objective from now on, and not let instincts overwhelm reason. We have higher reasoning for a reason: Instinct is wrong too often.
And I will be less crazy with my life in the future. That move was bad and didn't impress any of you. Suicidal doesn't prove townie, according to most townies it seems. Fair enough. Lesson learned. Bad Pizzaguy.
Now, I've identified the major errors I've made, and closed the holes in my reasoning. The net is much tighter and sturdier and stronger... and with more games under my belt, I will become a formidible opponent of the mafia, and a better mafioso. I've only played a small handful of games, interestingly enough... but I've gotten some very good results, most of the time.
Give me time, and another chance. I may be taking a break from mafia games in the near future, I think... give myself time to revise my theories, and fix the broken parts. Then, I will be back with a renewed vengeance, back from my sulking dirt nap ready to eat and tear the flesh of the evil mafioso. And there will be a giant pile of dead mafia in the future, so they had better kill me quick before I can vote them to death.
GeneralHankerchief "the Hurricane" made a similar promise when he came back to really kick some mafia butt. After some misunderstandings, I think we both respect each other's methods more. When I come back, watch out. I will not be so sloppy, and I will be much more dangerous, especially after I am dead. Always. I am the living dead, after all.
So, embarrassment aside, howling and wailing and whining and kicking myself aside, damaged pride and reputation aside.... All that effort posting and prosecuting aside... it's been a fun several weeks and I have learned a whole lot. I am returning to my bunker to draw up plans for the next world war... and when I return, I will be a new pizzaguy.
I'd also like to say that the system I came up with has a good record so far. So, even in this case... even on it's first few attempts... the system does work better than random guesses. In spite of the Chicago disaster.
Attack my abysmal performance in Chicago if you must, I certainly will never live it down. But I will defend the mafia analysis system I've developed up and down and make it even better. This is the weapon which will utterly annihilate mafia in every game I am in from now on, and I swear it to be so. I will also give it some cool codename like "Holmes", except more pizza-ish.
"Are we supposed to be scared?" Master Yoda says: You will be.... you will be.
:grin:
You may have shut me up this time... but next time, it will not be so easy.
I will return.
