Sorceror 17er Game Thread

Look, I'm not really a good leader villager. I'm never going to be that person that tries to bend the thread to my will. I'm just a solid back seat villager that kinda just tries to view the threadstate, see the various points of view, and then figure out the best course of action taking it all into account. So I always feel weird when I rand a power role because people suddenly want to follow you more.

I don't really agree with what we're doing today. There are 11 villagers vs 2 wolves. So far we have seen no signs of wolf in-fighting (Ladd just ignored monstr, monstr just ignored Ladd). Yet we have people kind of pushing Mont (voted Ladd), Sleep (got pushed hard by Ladd), Ender (pushed and pushed by Ladd), and Cuth (voted Ladd). I totally understand that there could be a wolf there but like, I also feel like the best way to implode this lead is to start infighting with people that have good things going for them, start killing each other, have them flip town, and then just collapse into chaos.

I feel like the best course of action is to say that we haven't fully cleared those people and we'll keep an eye on them as the game progresses to ensure they keep trying to solve, but save that for later when there's more information to sort through and they've had the chance to solve more.

We have 6 town kills before we lose (we lose on the 6th) assuming the last bomb hits two town. We have plenty of time to be methodical and sort things out.

I think we should kill in Hollowkatt/Newcomb/Katze/Cape/Dobby. Or at least spend the rest of the day focusing heavily on them and then can adjust if we decide they are all likely town. I think there's towny people in there, but I think that's the group that just doesn't have anything specifically great for them action wise that has been suspected by others. So it's not my own read list but king of an aggregate of thread consensus things?

With all of this said, I'm not the person to lead. That's just like, my opinion and stuff. I'm entirely fine if ya'll read through stuff and decide "nah, we're killing X" and I'll wish you luck. I don't think I have another day here but maybe Zack dies before me.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

i take that back potentially (i haven't read anything since yesterday middayish)

what?

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i just wanted to get ur attention

what are ur reads rn?

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Originally Posted by Newcomb

Okay genuine question to the 29459239439 people who want to "resolve" / infolynch me.

Does the game become really different or obvious if you get confirmation I'm a villager? Because I'm sitting here *knowing I'm a villager* and weathervaning pretty hard. Like am I missing something? If you were in my shoes and knew I was a villager would you just go, "oh of course, it's obviously X/Y."

I'll take the help at this point.

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katze/hollowkatt

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

katze/hollowkatt

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maybe? idk

I told benneh I'd read sleep so i will, brb

for the very little it's worth when i squinted at the thread d2/after dolby flip i was looking in something like and this is super non-clarified but

katze/monty/dobby

or like

sleep/hk/somethin

but then people were stronger v-reading dobby

from the stuff i read d1/early d2 i really don't see much reason for it but idk

Fwiw, I'm almost certainly vesting Dobby if we chop town today

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Originally Posted by Sleep

i just wanted to get ur attention

what are ur reads rn?

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they're archaic

Idk benneh, I mean you could be right but I think that's such a small thing (and i think ladd got genuinely flustered at an alt being in the game) compared to my reasons to town read sleep (cape case, ender defense/newcomb press wrt ladd spew all seeming totally fine). I'm not good at picking up on small things like that, sorry

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

for the very little it's worth when i squinted at the thread d2/after dolby flip i was looking in something like and this is super non-clarified but

katze/monty/dobby

or like

sleep/hk/somethin

but then people were stronger v-reading dobby

from the stuff i read d1/early d2 i really don't see much reason for it but idk

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ok

u voted monty because he opened the day pushing u and disliked him thinking u would bus, the ? is do u think monty would bus in that situation? i realize he tried to unvote but it still has to be considered he voted there in the first place

Newcomb,

I don't mean to be pointed or anything. We have two flipped wolves and 4 known villagers on day two. I know this is a laid back casual game and it's unreasonable to expect going super hard, but at some point I need you to just tell me who the wolves are from your pov. I've enjoyed your posting today and think your reasons for town reading some people are good, but townreading people in an 11v2 games with two dead wolves is easier to do for a wolf and calling people wolves in that game state is hard for them.

So like, not due to self-interactions or how easy/hard things are. Just "based on ladd and monstr/dolby being wolves and how things have played out, i think these people are the wolves".

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

I don't really agree with what we're doing today. There are 11 villagers vs 2 wolves. So far we have seen no signs of wolf in-fighting (Ladd just ignored monstr, monstr just ignored Ladd). Yet we have people kind of pushing Mont (voted Ladd), Sleep (got pushed hard by Ladd), Ender (pushed and pushed by Ladd), and Cuth (voted Ladd). I totally understand that there could be a wolf there but like, I also feel like the best way to implode this lead is to start infighting with people that have good things going for them, start killing each other, have them flip town, and then just collapse into chaos.

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fwiw i dont expect cuth to go over, i just wanted to indicate my suspicion and get his attention, ill swap to something viable at eod

ftr i think monty mostly fits if like either of hk/newc are w and not super else actually

it was predicated off a thought of wolves being some degree of dead in the water

i don't think ladd going over was that inevitable given the resistance against it it's kinda wild that it really happened

but i also think monty's vote and unvote to tie the wagons is kinda wack and there were things i don't remember from looking at his sod posting and overall trajectory that didn't make me feel perfectly warm n fuzzy inside

but i also don't think this feels like newc w really and idk about hk

it's more of a mental note to self and making sure things don't crystallize too much in that direction sort of deal than actually wanting him to die more than other people today

ok i really should do stuff but i'm going to talk through why i felt strongly about ender v at the time because newc and maybe others also asked about it

i don't think it's a very partnery thing for someone with ender's approach to wolfread their partner for a kinda dubious reason when a lot of the rest of the thread is pretty casually being like yeah that guy's pretty villagery, and then when being intensely pushed over this read and like directly offered contrary explanations for a read that again w!ender would have made up and be able to tell was kinda dubious not be like oh you're right this is a bad read or even eh you might be right but i think this makes more sense but instead get quite defensive and assume i'm trying to catch him on a contradiction

that's just not how wolves react

and if you fit this into the framework of how he's been approaching the game more broadly

that wolf read lines up with a lot of his other reads in terms of depth and style, it's not like this weird manufactured thing that only applies to ladd

i think it's possible that someone like ender would like intentionally do a bad push on a teammate and know it would be wrong, but i have a hard time seeing him act around it the way he did

sup

catching up from where i closed the thread yesterday, EoD is in ~6 hours right?

dobby's read on me also just feels like not v!dobby's read on me a bit

because sure i was like not super put together but it was also

i was definitely playing in the sort of approach range that would line up with how i'd wolf d1 in this sort of circumstance where i'm actively trying not to get super town-read but still being kinda intentional about engaging where i engage

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Originally Posted by katze

sup

catching up from where i closed the thread yesterday, EoD is in ~6 hours right?

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five and a half yee

I actually agree Sunbae. I am going to finish Newcomb's ISO and be around to discuss.

i think rask probably fits into more worlds than monty

but also that feels like a conversation for another day

i take that back i remember monstr stuff rask is just v

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

ok i really should do stuff but i'm going to talk through why i felt strongly about ender v at the time because newc and maybe others also asked about it

i don't think it's a very partnery thing for someone with ender's approach to wolfread their partner for a kinda dubious reason when a lot of the rest of the thread is pretty casually being like yeah that guy's pretty villagery, and then when being intensely pushed over this read and like directly offered contrary explanations for a read that again w!ender would have made up and be able to tell was kinda dubious not be like oh you're right this is a bad read or even eh you might be right but i think this makes more sense but instead get quite defensive and assume i'm trying to catch him on a contradiction

that's just not how wolves react

and if you fit this into the framework of how he's been approaching the game more broadly

that wolf read lines up with a lot of his other reads in terms of depth and style, it's not like this weird manufactured thing that only applies to ladd

i think it's possible that someone like ender would like intentionally do a bad push on a teammate and know it would be wrong, but i have a hard time seeing him act around it the way he did

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i do think ender is more likely v than not but this is a thing where ur confidence on it kind of worries me, because wolves tend to be more certain on spew type reads like this than villagers are, where they always have doubt in their minds

(sorry if this is offputting, its just the thought crawling around inside my head)

i'm glad i never listened to my gut trepidation on you zack

i was kinda worried about you all d1 but it never got to the point where it felt worth it and you had some moments

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Idk benneh, I mean you could be right but I think that's such a small thing (and i think ladd got genuinely flustered at an alt being in the game) compared to my reasons to town read sleep (cape case, ender defense/newcomb press wrt ladd spew all seeming totally fine). I'm not good at picking up on small things like that, sorry

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ftr i town read sleep too. its just a minor tinfoily thing hence me asking for the sanity check

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Originally Posted by Sleep

i do think ender is more likely v than not but this is a thing where ur confidence on it kind of worries me, because wolves tend to be more certain on spew type reads like this than villagers are, where they always have doubt in their minds

(sorry if this is offputting, its just the thought crawling around inside my head)

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that's bizarre

like it makes sense but is just weird in this context is all

also if it makes any difference ender was in the first game of online forum mafia i ever played almost exactly nine years ago

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Fwiw, I'm almost certainly vesting Dobby if we chop town today

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Fuck ye I'd love that


Like, I really really don't want to die today

Its against my very nature to like, drop dead but I do that as either alignment. I want to say I'd be more relaxed if I were wolf because I could play the players or something, but I'm honestly just very mediocre as town and like, I genuinely can't stand out as town from my wolfgame and that's probably what outs me in this seat over and over. I spend more time than I have on the games, which ends up in something half-assed reading posts from where I joined thread and everything past that - but I still haven't read the posts leading up to eod when I was absent, and I haven't fucking read the posts from like days stsrt until the bomb had went off

And i still can't get myself to just reading those posts.

It also stresses me that eod is 3.5h before I need to wake up for work, and tomorrow is the last day I work in 10 days, and not being able to be here (if I sleep in time) last two or three hours leading up to eod means I can easily be the one voted out and no matter how well I play or what I do, I. Likely one of the top contenders for that spot. But ye I genuinely like


What do I do here

Do I keep reading and try to form correct reads about stuff? Because I am genuinely happy with my reads with my lists based off what I have read. If I go down this path, it'll 100% be for "I want to save myself" reasons and it'll take a ton of work and on top of that defending myself against people repeatedly saying "it's just dobby". Like, I won't be able to do much past what I have done that might change any thoughts on me.

And yes I'm capable of renting like this as wolf as well, and I probably would if I were, because that's just how I play and it sucks being expected to give 200% in every game I play or there's "something missing" or whatever but I guess I've got myself to blame for that.

Back to "what do I do". I'm genuinely, and I said it before, happy with what I did yesterday (as in second half of d1), and like, I never am, there's always a ton that bugs me about what I've done but not this game, even after the flips. I had sus on ladd and sure I wasn't after his ass leading up to eod, nor at eod, but I was in no way saying he was towny or such. I was wrong on monstr and I couldn't care less about that either. I had a dumb "he doesn't tilt like this if he's wolf because he's in a group" etc etc so I gave him a freebie, that was wrong too, but that's about it from what we know now. Sunbae sure I had my tinfoil but that's because they manage to like dig into my soul and have a big bite everytime I dare to trust em, but it was a fairly firm townread, and zack was also barring some tinfoil, also a firm townread. I'm not going to judge my game based on monstr or not having voted ladd during eod (when I had been away for hours and just rejoined when there were a few minutes left of the day), like even mentioning that despite having tried to explain it, is just not reasonable, you should be able to see that yeah it's not logical for dobby to come back in and make all the right moves. And I'm saying that because several of you still do despite me having pointed it out several times.

Ivr been focusing on people's reasons for playing like they do, trying to see where they come from when they write something, how shallow the reads are, does it make sense from 'their' perspective even though I don't agree nor would interpret stuff that way? The contents don't matter as much for me, it doesn't usually unless I feel like I have to or that what I say would actually matter. I said it before but yeah this is a game of big ego's and even if I had like a photo of someone nuking someone else, I wouldn't reach through to some others in here to convince them that the person is wolf. (Okay that might be exaggerating because I do that a lot as well) so the few attempts I have as "please read this look at this look looooook" don't really lead anywhere and barely get acknowledged. So I don't focus on that. I do what I can to push the game forward and provide what I feel like I can provide and help out with, and maybe I don't and maybe its very discrete but it's what I've been forming my reads based on and it's there if you care to look for it. I'm not gonna poop out reads or associatives or stuff based on vote counts or wagons or whatever, because its so easily fake able and reading into any of that is just a lottery in most cases, and even if it's right it's just because of like, chance, and not skill. Because I genuinely believe all these things can and do get played by any semi-capable wolf, in smol discrete ways doing stuff that "yeah this isn't a classic wolf move but someone will prolly notice this and give me town points for it"

i really wanna be selfish and bully sunbae into giving me the bomb tomorrow

but he'll never do it, im just too pure :(

:curtain:

what emoji can i use to emotionally guilt you into thinking i'm pocketing you and thus worthy of a bomb tonight













:creep:

and i think i'm specifically confident about this sort of read on ender because of their playstyle in a way i wouldn't be confident about making reads on, say, newc

and i'm also doubling down because i have a better feel for aspects of this than a fair number of people here and i think a lot of people have been trying to get ender killed because he's somewhat easy to get killed see: ladd lazily pushing there lmao

but it's 100% because he "does wolfy stuff" and like 0% because he does wolfy stuff imo

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Originally Posted by Newcomb

Not sure how much I want to read into this but the flat response to sleep's big wall is like... ehh I was gonna say +villa for sleep. Maybe it is a little. I'm just not sure how much I should read into any of monstr's posts given what happened. Like you can't really ascribe normal wolf agenda/valuation/thinking to someone to blew up like that and clearly had some stuff going on.

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im leaning towards it still being ~overall +villa for sleep, it looks a lot like the response i'd see a lower effort wolf give when they see a post they know people will townread - and it's generally harder to have that thought when it's a wolf written post?

if by "given what happened" you mean The Incident?, then maaaaybe - in the draft game on MU that monstr was mafia in he basically told his teammates to bus him from pregame so i wouldn't be surprised if that happened again?

I think I just created a new pasta

Anyways, tldr is i don't want to die but I honestly don't think I can do anything about it because people have lowkey made up their mind already


Or like yes, I'd love to get a vest but saying that sounds wolfy but I'd also not post it if I were wolf because.i don't want to look wolfy. Etc. Wifom, love it.

vote: katze

uwu

Sunbae can you acknowledge the 5 minute thing not being a thing

also benneh i saw your uwu and i love you for it profoundly

hugs to dobby

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

that's bizarre

like it makes sense but is just weird in this context is all

also if it makes any difference ender was in the first game of online forum mafia i ever played almost exactly nine years ago

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

and i think i'm specifically confident about this sort of read on ender because of their playstyle in a way i wouldn't be confident about making reads on, say, newc

and i'm also doubling down because i have a better feel for aspects of this than a fair number of people here and i think a lot of people have been trying to get ender killed because he's somewhat easy to get killed see: ladd lazily pushing there lmao

but it's 100% because he "does wolfy stuff" and like 0% because he does wolfy stuff imo

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the context is helpful, thanks

ive said it in thread already but ill say again in a smaller post that i think cape is the best elim today

i'm a bit sketched by what felt like a building case against HK from lots of folks and i town read that slot pretty hard. maybe its LOL me but i personally have a hard time getting the progressions from cape ITG so that's where i'd rather go

but similar to sunbae i don't wanna bend the thread to my will so much as i want to at least clearly express my thoughts on those two

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

dobby's read on me also just feels like not v!dobby's read on me a bit

because sure i was like not super put together but it was also

i was definitely playing in the sort of approach range that would line up with how i'd wolf d1 in this sort of circumstance where i'm actively trying not to get super town-read but still being kinda intentional about engaging where i engage

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Can you define that dobby read on you a little more pls

(I also posted a less certain v reas of you today if you haven't seen it yet)

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

that's bizarre

like it makes sense but is just weird in this context is all

also if it makes any difference ender was in the first game of online forum mafia i ever played almost exactly nine years ago

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Oh, you are a noob. It explains it. Things are starting to line up :juggle2:

It's suppose dto say I fight against it as either alignment, I don't mean to say I drop dead regardless of alignment


Yes I definitely didn't read through the wallpost I'm not a nerd (giggles at the ones who read it)

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Originally Posted by Dobby

Can you define that dobby read on you a little more pls

(I also posted a less certain v reas of you today if you haven't seen it yet)

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i didn't sorry

uh you were just sorta confidently v-reading me d1 for the most part

and i think it's maybe fair but also i felt like i was playing in a space in the thread wrt engagement and stuff that honestly lines up with how i often approach d1s as a wolf where i'm there and engaging but not leaning in too hard because i don't want to get strongly v-read d1 lol

even though it was more because i had two exams and a bunch of work to do and so i was only able to engage so much but was still like present a fair bit

and you often take a more uh cautious look at me than most people because you know my style of approach

and it surprised me a bit that you weren't more sketched out by my general patterns of engagement than you were

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Originally Posted by nebjiamn

ive said it in thread already but ill say again in a smaller post that i think cape is the best elim today

i'm a bit sketched by what felt like a building case against HK from lots of folks and i town read that slot pretty hard. maybe its LOL me but i personally have a hard time getting the progressions from cape ITG so that's where i'd rather go

but similar to sunbae i don't wanna bend the thread to my will so much as i want to at least clearly express my thoughts on those two

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i was just typing a list and kind of coming around to this despite earlier trepidation

the...i guessmost concerning thing is he had both monstr and ladd in his wolf leans day 1 but pushed two villagers instead with reasoning that was weak and im still not sure i click with what hes pushing today, altho i need to revisit it

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Fwiw, I'm almost certainly vesting Dobby if we chop town today

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if we're gonna do that we might as well chop me so that dobby has to make a different call. Otherwise we'll chop town today, you'll vest dobby, he'll blow me up, I'll flip town. Dobby might flip town idk, but we'll for sure be down 1x town we didn't need to be down.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

dobby's read on me also just feels like not v!dobby's read on me a bit

because sure i was like not super put together but it was also

i was definitely playing in the sort of approach range that would line up with how i'd wolf d1 in this sort of circumstance where i'm actively trying not to get super town-read but still being kinda intentional about engaging where i engage

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This is also like, the only thing you've written about me this game (that I remember) isn't it

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Originally Posted by EnderWiggin

#1149

I actually like this post. Bar the mild "Oh Cuth didn't die?" derptell which feels fake. But also wagon position on Ladd was probably good?

I kinda like Sleep's daystart in general.

#1171

I'm in confbias territory now but like, this post is a post I can see wolf!Newcomb making after not thinking Ladd was in danger at EOD and then the flashwagon on his partner appears.

-- I'm going to point out that it looks like Dolby entered today to try and pocket me.

#1205

As of this post I'm pretty sure Neb/NC are unpaired.

#1210

I'll actually have to check this after I'm done catching up. If Zack is right and Ladd really didn't defend Newc at all and WAS around after I dropped case and pushed, it might actually be signs pointing in the "I'm wrong" direction.

#1230

If I am wrong on Newc is this the angle that I was pocketed at? (Talking about Sleep not Zack)

#1233

Ladd/Sleep/HK/? =P

#1236

Neb comes to mind immediately, I'd have to think about this more for other names.

#1247

If it's Cape and Newc as the other two wolves this post becomes more hilarious. (Both unflipped wolves basically templated the same opener today.)

Kinda want to unpair Cape/Neb for 1257/1258

#1260

Is it a bad read if I call this a town post? Legit seems to be dismissive/annoyed at Dolby before he flipped. Might be a bad read but I'm actually pretty confident in it.

1263/1264 are mildly wolf leaning IMO for Neb

#1272

In my defense I hadn't seen your post saying the same thing yet =P

#1281

I think this post never comes from w/v worlds for Newc/Neb. Or not w!Newcomb/V!Neb worlds. If Newcomb flips red I am willing to bet anything that Neb flips red too.

#1284

That post is NAI. I stand by the reads I do use.

Is it bad that I read Newc lashing out at Zack as possibly towny? Probably yes.

#1330

This is actually a mildly convincing take lmao.

#1411

This is a pretty ballsy post for a wolf to make tbh. I kinda like it.

#1426

Dare I say this looks good for Newcomb? Dare I?

Rask's catchup is meh but also probably not AI.

Dobby's catchup is kinda meh. Also I believe Rask's "Oh Dolby is mafia" more than Dobby's.

I like Benneh's reads in the next sequence (Not at all because he calls me town what are you talking about)

#1500

Derp tell denied.

The rest I'm kinda vagueish on as my brain is struggling to keep going.

I didn't see anything particularly AI but need to dig into the posting a bit more.

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Thus concludes my lacklustre wall of returns.

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this wall feels exactly like a w!katze catchup wall lmao

i know i've caught myself like, overrelying on "link post - describe thought" a hell of a lot more as mafia than as town where i'm more... things line up better, i guess? instead of "this post is wolfy *links post*. this post is townie *links post*" it'd be more like "i have mixed feelings" (okay this is a bad example but im not going to make a better one)

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Originally Posted by Dobby

This is also like, the only thing you've written about me this game (that I remember) isn't it

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yup

i basically didn't touch you d1

but i was like hm

and less for the read on me that didn't really bother me until today

and more for you just sorta fitting into several different worlds

i don't think apart from the read i have any huge issues with how you've played and what you've done

Dobby, good wall post <3

I'm going to make a longerish post about the vest

Dobby: ofc u don't want the vest. But for the exercice, GTH you have it, you gotta bomb NOW. Who goes?

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Originally Posted by katze

this wall feels exactly like a w!katze catchup wall lmao

i know i've caught myself like, overrelying on "link post - describe thought" a hell of a lot more as mafia than as town where i'm more... things line up better, i guess? instead of "this post is wolfy *links post*. this post is townie *links post*" it'd be more like "i have mixed feelings" (okay this is a bad example but im not going to make a better one)

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have you played with bladescape often?

*outside HK

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Originally Posted by nebjiamn

ive said it in thread already but ill say again in a smaller post that i think cape is the best elim today

i'm a bit sketched by what felt like a building case against HK from lots of folks and i town read that slot pretty hard. maybe its LOL me but i personally have a hard time getting the progressions from cape ITG so that's where i'd rather go

but similar to sunbae i don't wanna bend the thread to my will so much as i want to at least clearly express my thoughts on those two

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I think it's just me that have built a case on hk, and 0 ppl acknowledging that it exists? :p

Csargo also voted hk just saying (again) I'm just tryna manipulate you hope it works

sunbae, zack
rask, ender
neb, dobby, katze
hk, monty, cuth
cape, newc

no matter how many times i look at it, have a hard time moving it around

below clears is people who seem more or less spewed

below that people who arent spewed but generally feel good

then folks with some stuff going for them

then people i find suspicious

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Originally Posted by Sleep

sunbae, zack
rask, ender
neb, dobby, katze
hk, monty, cuth
cape, newc

no matter how many times i look at it, have a hard time moving it around

below clears is people who seem more or less spewed

below that people who arent spewed but generally feel good

then folks with some stuff going for them

then people i find suspicious

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have you written any words about how my playing eod1 the way i did as a wolf make even a tiny bit of sense?

[vote]newcomb[/vote]

okay can i stop catching up there's too many wallposts

vote: Newcomb

Assuming we chop town (likely in an 11v2 situation), I think I'm supposed to target a villager read that I think the thread will miskill eventually? It takes away a chop and gives that chop the chance to make a kill instead. If that's the case, I was thinking Dobby because like, I really really really think Dobby is town, I've expressed that read as strongly as I can, and people are still really suspicious of them. So if I am right then Dobby turned from a mischop to a villager with kill power which seems good? And hitting a wolf let's them get an extra kill from the top which seems less good than clearing out two poe slots?

And if I'm wrong then cool, the thread was correct and I wasn't and a wolf dies.

Although typing it out there's only two wolves left maybe I'm incorrect and I'm supposed to just target a wolf read and if it's wrong they get to take someone on the way out anyways?

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

vote: katze

uwu

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umu

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

have you played with bladescape often?

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think this is my first time playing w him, altho he was in a game i hosted

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Newcomb,

I don't mean to be pointed or anything. We have two flipped wolves and 4 known villagers on day two. I know this is a laid back casual game and it's unreasonable to expect going super hard, but at some point I need you to just tell me who the wolves are from your pov. I've enjoyed your posting today and think your reasons for town reading some people are good, but townreading people in an 11v2 games with two dead wolves is easier to do for a wolf and calling people wolves in that game state is hard for them.

So like, not due to self-interactions or how easy/hard things are. Just "based on ladd and monstr/dolby being wolves and how things have played out, i think these people are the wolves".

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But mooooooooom I don't waaaaannnna.

yeah that's fair. I'm at work right now but I can sneak off in a bit to jot down some thoughts

Dobby, the 5 hour thing is acknowledged and discarded

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Originally Posted by hollowkatt

if we're gonna do that we might as well chop me so that dobby has to make a different call. Otherwise we'll chop town today, you'll vest dobby, he'll blow me up, I'll flip town. Dobby might flip town idk, but we'll for sure be down 1x town we didn't need to be down.

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I'm nit sure I understand what you're saying here, are u implying I might be influential in the chop and that'd lead to you? Because lol give me one example of a player that listens to me/,has read my posts and gone "yes this is good I agree it makes sense", just one please.

I'm definitely not sure you're my choice for today if that's your impression. I literally wrote an updated readslist with s lot of alternatives presented. I know others are Tring you and among them some people I trust, so it's not like I have locked in and not looking elsewhere, I just don't feel like your answers have done anything to help me find you here. It might just be a difference in playstyles but I don't want to blame it on that. Your case on me (that I answered with a list of 8 points) where some stuff where you misreading what I wrote (as in, yesterday as in second half of d1) etc, which you use to build a case, and peeling off the things I refute there, its not much left of your "case", and sure I might not have a lot going for me but like, I'd at least understand that focus if you chose it.


Also I hate it when ppl say "chop me" cuzmy instinct is to double down

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Assuming we chop town (likely in an 11v2 situation), I think I'm supposed to target a villager read that I think the thread will miskill eventually? It takes away a chop and gives that chop the chance to make a kill instead. If that's the case, I was thinking Dobby because like, I really really really think Dobby is town, I've expressed that read as strongly as I can, and people are still really suspicious of them. So if I am right then Dobby turned from a mischop to a villager with kill power which seems good? And hitting a wolf let's them get an extra kill from the top which seems less good than clearing out two poe slots?

And if I'm wrong then cool, the thread was correct and I wasn't and a wolf dies.

Although typing it out there's only two wolves left maybe I'm incorrect and I'm supposed to just target a wolf read and if it's wrong they get to take someone on the way out anyways?

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imma be honest sunbae it sounds like im the optimal bomb target because every read ive seen on me has been soured by paranoia of "katze is a good wolf and nothing is 100% clearing" which will v likely not change unless exactly newcomb flips mafia

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Originally Posted by Newcomb

But mooooooooom I don't waaaaannnna.

yeah that's fair. I'm at work right now but I can sneak off in a bit to jot down some thoughts

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No rush!
Well, maybe a little rush but not immediate rush lol

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

yup

i basically didn't touch you d1

but i was like hm

and less for the read on me that didn't really bother me until today

and more for you just sorta fitting into several different worlds

i don't think apart from the read i have any huge issues with how you've played and what you've done

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Fitting in to what worlds exactly? Is that based on anything but "not cleared, hes in that sweet spot of" he's nit top town and we are starting to lack players to put in the poe, because that perspective would make more sense from you

And not "fitting into several different words" because that's... I don't get that approach when you can just say "you're in poe" or something, this implies you've made association's or smth

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

Dobby: ofc u don't want the vest. But for the exercice, GTH you have it, you gotta bomb NOW. Who goes?

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I want the vest of course lol, and I'd probably use it qccording to whatever is discussed in thread before I pop it and not vanity shoot, probably. I just don't want to die today but I fear I will because I won't be here for eod which is at 2am

But yeah if I pop someone just this second it might honestly be cape lol

Idk katze, I think I can see plenty of worlds where you get called a villager by most of the thread!

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Dobby, the 5 hour thing is acknowledged and discarded

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Ur the best sunabe something something the light in the dark and an angel and smth

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

Assuming we chop town (likely in an 11v2 situation), I think I'm supposed to target a villager read that I think the thread will miskill eventually? It takes away a chop and gives that chop the chance to make a kill instead. If that's the case, I was thinking Dobby because like, I really really really think Dobby is town, I've expressed that read as strongly as I can, and people are still really suspicious of them. So if I am right then Dobby turned from a mischop to a villager with kill power which seems good? And hitting a wolf let's them get an extra kill from the top which seems less good than clearing out two poe slots?

And if I'm wrong then cool, the thread was correct and I wasn't and a wolf dies.

Although typing it out there's only two wolves left maybe I'm incorrect and I'm supposed to just target a wolf read and if it's wrong they get to take someone on the way out anyways?

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I'd target a wolf read personally.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

have you written any words about how my playing eod1 the way i did as a wolf make even a tiny bit of sense?

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no but i can do so now:

- for starters you were heavily under pressure already before people hopped off

- your vote was the 2nd on ladd wagon and there was no guarantee people would follow it

- hypothetically in a world where you are teamed with ladd, maybe people get scared and go elsewhere that day and you look good down the line. or people go back onto you and you flip and decide to clear ladd. its not a bad move at all if youre in a spot where a lot of the team is suspected (and this is added to the fact that at the time monstr's slot was obviously a nonfactor)

- altho the sorc is technically kp, it doesnt actually change the balance of kills in this setup at all. it guarantees a town death but gives another kill right back into the hands of town, so the effect is net neutral. the only thing it does is slightly expand the timescale the game is played on, which i think is +town, but the perceived benefit of flipping the n3 sorc so far seems to have been greater than what i consider the actual utility of the mafia sorc to be


this is all just stuff thats kicking around in my head. by itself it remains just a possible explanation but my worry was that you didnt feel like you came into the day primed to draw conclusions off the flip, and thats frequently the case where mafia members bus a teammate and then end up coasting because they dont know where to go

its possible im overthinking this but thats why i wanted to talk to you to get a sense of how ur reading the game

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Originally Posted by Cape90

on the topic of Montmorency and the ladd wagon.

please look at #961 and #964

like Mont goes from outright shading Winston for the vote on ladd, to joining Winston by EOD. I am either paranoid at an obvtown move or I am Sherlock Holmes

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Originally Posted by Cape90

man... 1604 says nothing

I have a feeling mafia is Mont this game. Too many things keep piling up

Vote: Montmorency

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Originally Posted by Cape90

I think the team could simply be mont/dobby

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Originally Posted by Cape90

I was getting at I feel like it is easy for mafia to do that with their partners at the start of each day just to like distance and stuff then hop on other people later.

I seem valid to me

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:/ :/ :/

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Originally Posted by Dobby

Fitting in to what worlds exactly? Is that based on anything but "not cleared, hes in that sweet spot of" he's nit top town and we are starting to lack players to put in the poe, because that perspective would make more sense from you

And not "fitting into several different words" because that's... I don't get that approach when you can just say "you're in poe" or something, this implies you've made association's or smth

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no it's not based off anything specific

just where pushes are and aren't going and who is and isn't super villagery

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Originally Posted by katze

imma be honest sunbae it sounds like im the optimal bomb target because every read ive seen on me has been soured by paranoia of "katze is a good wolf and nothing is 100% clearing" which will v likely not change unless exactly newcomb flips mafia

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or even in that world tbh

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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hehe

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Originally Posted by Sleep

:/ :/ :/

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Sleep, why do you think these reads are bad? And what do you make of the people sharing them too (on top of my head, zack, HK, me earlier)?

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Originally Posted by Sleep

no but i can do so now:

- for starters you were heavily under pressure already before people hopped off

- your vote was the 2nd on ladd wagon and there was no guarantee people would follow it

- hypothetically in a world where you are teamed with ladd, maybe people get scared and go elsewhere that day and you look good down the line. or people go back onto you and you flip and decide to clear ladd. its not a bad move at all if youre in a spot where a lot of the team is suspected (and this is added to the fact that at the time monstr's slot was obviously a nonfactor)

- altho the sorc is technically kp, it doesnt actually change the balance of kills in this setup at all. it guarantees a town death but gives another kill right back into the hands of town, so the effect is net neutral. the only thing it does is slightly expand the timescale the game is played on, which i think is +town, but the perceived benefit of flipping the n3 sorc so far seems to have been greater than what i consider the actual utility of the mafia sorc to be


this is all just stuff thats kicking around in my head. by itself it remains just a possible explanation but my worry was that you didnt feel like you came into the day primed to draw conclusions off the flip, and thats frequently the case where mafia members bus a teammate and then end up coasting because they dont know where to go

its possible im overthinking this but thats why i wanted to talk to you to get a sense of how ur reading the game

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a) meh

b) sure, but i can snap vote rask there and have zero people ever get mad about it

ladd doesn't go over if i don't vote there period, there was too much resistance itt

c) in a spot where most of the team is suspected only really works if there's a third wolf likely to die there alongside me/ladd

otherwise again there's really no point; also there are very few wolf partners i'm willingly going to sacrifice myself for because i trust my ability to post myself into a good position a lot more than most players, and i just don't plan for myself dying like that

like if ladd was likely going to go down regardless sure maybe i toss a vote there in a good spot if it makes me look good but not for no reason when it brings him up into actual contention

self-pressing onto rask is 100% the easiest and healthiest option in every world that keeps two good wolves alive without looking weird after a flip at all

d) the n3 sorc guarantees more deaths

as someone who's won as a wolf in desperado type setups it's not a guaranteed two villagers dead but it's definitely >rand two villagers dead, wolves don't like giving that up, and knowing that it's out there is going to distract villagers and throw things up in the air beyond just the impact of the mechanical effect

e) i mean or you could just look at the fact that i kinda yolo'd the ladd vote because i didn't really know what i wanted to do yesterday, realize that i didn't really spend a lot of time on the thread overnight, and wonder in what possible worlds i would feel strongly about the direction i wanted to go in today

I'm ready to fight ppl over the bomb, I don't want to be misyeeted

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Originally Posted by nebjiamn

coming back to this post post-flip because i think it sums up pretty much where i'm at atm post-flip and i wanna work off of it a bit. my world view didn't change all that much with dolby flipping red even though i wasn't really on him a ton, i don't imagine many people's worldviews did either.


i think the statement stands that the rest of the team probably isn't HK/Katze. i've soured a little on kat in terms of her being near the top of my v list but i still think she is >rand v. i'm slightly warming up to the idea that newcomb may be v this game and i still give her credit for noticing things that I did and pushing on those things on d1 in regard to him even if we both may end up having been wrong about them. more concerned about the process than the results and i like what she's shown more than i haven't. if there's one thing that's skeeved me a little it was her post earlier d2 where she wrote a wallpost with her continued issues about newcomb and dropped the mic on that post in a way that felt more like it was framed to make newcomb look bad without much deference to his thoughts, but i assume this is just a continuation of the weird dynamic they have with kat's expectations/newcomb's ignorance of kat's meta (lmao) and the repercussions therein


HK i think has lots of good posts (especially relative to his actual postcount!) and I feel like its been very easy for me to follow along with his progressions while i read the thread. his response to newcomb today in trying to figure out if we had w/w/w, w/w/v, or v/v/w wagons yesterday and then extrapolating that to a shortened suspect list of [dolby, dobby, ender] looks really good.





Like, its not just that he places dolby as his 1st from that list, but the way he clears kat, sleep, and myself from that list, particularly myself and sleep and going on to say he doesn't have reads on us when he should. since i think kat and sleep are both >rand v, that would be a hell of a position to take when he'd be well within his right to suspect all 3 of us there without getting much flak for it. again, i like the process here and in other parts of his iso. i suppose if dobby and ender is 0 wolves, it might have been fine for him to just rule of 3 two separate categories of folks and score some bus credit on dolby/monstr but i still think it comes out looking clean.





i'm definitely still in the possible camp but moving away from probable where i've been sitting for a good chunk of the game. i think the frustration he's shown toward zack last night plus the point he's made about being night/day from his wildcard game are pretty valid. its just hard to imagine newc on this team and him basically mailing in EOD yesterday when he'd know he'd be a candidate AND another, strong wolf gets wagoned/lunched (i mnight be mis-attributing some agency here because the ladd vote was really quick but i still feel like newcomb shows a bit more urgency to command that EOD rather than just kind of accept it?) (i don't think newcomb was at EOD but i believe he was there leading up to it, i guess i should double check this but i'm lazy)







this feels like the crux of the game for me, at this point? with a village read on newcomb starting to take shape, my world view doesn't really make sense unless one of zack/cuth is wrong on their v read here. and i mean, its werewolf, so its obviously very possible both are just correct and we have a deep wolf or two in either the bussers or a misclear of the sleep/kat/HK/newc quartet (list potentially not all-inclusive, its late).

[...]


cape i am straight up struggling to solve. a lot of his posting has felt to me like "Here's a post, here's a fact, elaboration, done" but then I don't really see the process behind it a ton. i also feel like there's been lots of good thoughts or questions that have just been left dangling behind. also the weird shade that calls me out for not finding ladd in a room full of players with equal or more experience with ladd than me. i am setting that aside a bit because i don't want to make reads too much based around how people poke and prod at me, but that just felt designed like a hit piece on me rather than coming from an inquisitive position. this could very much be a me problem but i'm just having trouble connecting the dots on cape's posting ITG and how he's getting from a->b a lot of times or a better way to put it maybe, where his posting begins and where his thought process ends? I feel like pound for pound, there's more empty questions in cape's iso that either 1) i can't see how they help him solve the game or 2) if/how he follows up on it later in the game?

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er, to address the concern on me real quick because i think ik what ur talking about, i straight up expected a MU head moderator to have more than zero idea what was going on with the recent champs seasons, i dropped it because i'm not going to call him a liar because regardless of alignment he probably isn't.



anyway, the main reason i quoted this post is because i still feel pretty decently about HK being a villager and this post ironically makes me feel a lot better about you because you're kinda explaining in bigger words what my gut was kinda saying + adding more to it that i hadn't even really considered

i vaguely remember people throwing his name out as a potential wolf, idk if it still really is since i'm kinda jumping back and forth between the current page and catching up, but i don't believe it's a hit



as for cape, it's weird - i associate him with a more mechanical playstyle (not like, with game mechanics, but in the robotic sense) so none of what you type out here is extremely surprising to me, my bigger conerns with cape aren't what he's posting but what he's not posting

im thinking back to my last game with cape where i was mafia and he was town (h21g10) and i felt like he became borderline low hanging fruit that game because of a less inspired D1; and i was essentially able to just keep throwing around "underwhelming" as a way to keep him PoEd - which even persisted after i flipped mafia - so im kinda like... i feel like it's my job to read him correctly here?

and i dunno. i still don't want him to die today because i think i can, but if you told me to read him correctly right now i'd probably say >rand mafia

Is there a way to look at the first posts of an ISO with more than 100 posts?

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Originally Posted by Cape90

on the topic of Montmorency and the ladd wagon.

please look at #961 and #964

like Mont goes from outright shading Winston for the vote on ladd, to joining Winston by EOD. I am either paranoid at an obvtown move or I am Sherlock Holmes

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Originally Posted by Cape90

man... 1604 says nothing

I have a feeling mafia is Mont this game. Too many things keep piling up

Vote: Montmorency

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Originally Posted by Cape90

I think the team could simply be mont/dobby

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

Sleep, why do you think these reads are bad? And what do you make of the people sharing them too (on top of my head, zack, HK, me earlier)?

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theyre lazy, theres no depth of thought, hes shallowly pointing at things and calling them bad without real elaboration on why it comes from a wolf

he did similar in how he tried to push csargo and winston yesterday


it doesnt look like genuine solving, ppl keep defending him to me and i go back and forth in my head but i look atthese and i struggle to sy "these are real woof reads that cape really believes in"

Katzd have you said anything about me this game

Cuz I'm only interested in having thoughts based on me atp

Or my reads on you or smth

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

a) meh

b) sure, but i can snap vote rask there and have zero people ever get mad about it

ladd doesn't go over if i don't vote there period, there was too much resistance itt

c) in a spot where most of the team is suspected only really works if there's a third wolf likely to die there alongside me/ladd

otherwise again there's really no point; also there are very few wolf partners i'm willingly going to sacrifice myself for because i trust my ability to post myself into a good position a lot more than most players, and i just don't plan for myself dying like that

like if ladd was likely going to go down regardless sure maybe i toss a vote there in a good spot if it makes me look good but not for no reason when it brings him up into actual contention

self-pressing onto rask is 100% the easiest and healthiest option in every world that keeps two good wolves alive without looking weird after a flip at all

d) the n3 sorc guarantees more deaths

as someone who's won as a wolf in desperado type setups it's not a guaranteed two villagers dead but it's definitely >rand two villagers dead, wolves don't like giving that up, and knowing that it's out there is going to distract villagers and throw things up in the air beyond just the impact of the mechanical effect

e) i mean or you could just look at the fact that i kinda yolo'd the ladd vote because i didn't really know what i wanted to do yesterday, realize that i didn't really spend a lot of time on the thread overnight, and wonder in what possible worlds i would feel strongly about the direction i wanted to go in today

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all right, point taken about self pres'ing onto rask

fwiw i disagree on the n3 sorc but recognize that its entirely possible u believe what ur saying about it

thanks for the talk, i dont have anything more i want to ask u about right now

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Originally Posted by Sunbae

None of these are that strong but I have strong reasons to call others villagery and I don't really have many for Katze.

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:p i read the future