villagers are
dya
insom
grr
dolby
maple
maple's there bc im willing to hold the read for jan
dolby voters should have more to say imo to justify a wagon on the slot
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villagers are
dya
insom
grr
dolby
maple
maple's there bc im willing to hold the read for jan
dolby voters should have more to say imo to justify a wagon on the slot
I might be in a soft difference check with mont cuz of d1 wagons (otherwise Rask wagon pure or something). I just kind of liked his posts vibe wise. Dolby I personally agree with. knights i dont see, but maybe its just cuz his posts are making me laugh, i didnt give it much consideration. top tier i am fine with.
umm, maybe I will have more interesting thoughts later in the day it's just my GTH vibes (would but gemma over ender now cause ladd seemed to feel pretty strong about it but that's about it).
so let me ask you sunbae. why did you go for a meaningless 1 naked vote wagon on benneh when you have been town casing ladd, instead of you know actually helping ladd and voting the player that ladd was convinced was mafia.
because unironically some of your posts (like this one) read to me like u are wolfcasing yourself.
Look, if yall don't believe me, at least believe *Jan* who believed in me. I'm most likely dying in the night after dya.
I am concerned that *everyone* is coming together to kill wisdom here, and it's actually fuckin annoying cause at minimum 3 villagers killed ladd yesterday and wisdom should be solved already, but all the same it's entirely plausible that the last 1-2 wolves could bus wisdom and try to go for a f5/3 win.
jan and ben being the only two kills in the night make that possibility pretty nonsensical, given wolf!me just kills jan and we use our factional elsewhere
in that scenario, the medic heal would be fake and/or we just never stack w/ him on dya
Is this your only reason cuz its probably gonna take a horse to drag me off wisdom. thing of note is that benneh was very well aware of wisdoms fakeclaim in the 12/12er on MU, so my question is why didnt he bring it up the day before already to shade her. Don't know how much of a powerwolf benneh is but that was my initial reaction to it and he didnt mention until I did. (and I'm also not sure I understand WHAT you are seeing in that post).
kinda just not feeling good about monty atm
@dyachei
why mont v? im pretty back and forth on the slot. the ladd stuff gives me the most concern at the moment. seems plausibly teamed with other slots in the poe
Vote: Knights
you'd have been blocked in jail tho man? Think your one shot PGO wouldn't have been usable
@EnderWiggin I think to get to wisdom spewed from Benneh that doesn't cover it. I feel that the first thing with Benneh talking to me does look good from Wisdom but I was clearing Wisdom for bad reasons since I was still catching up with the thread at the time, and it would have potentially been bad long term to use that to clear wisdom when I don't think Wisdom was a major push at that exact point in time?
Straight up disagree with the post advocating voting out wisdom and exeing Maple. Thread was clearly moving towards a wisdom lead at that time and there's some hedgy language in that despite that leads me to think that he didn't want to actually go there
tbh I can fully believe that Jan didn't exe Maple. When Jan was saying he was gonna jail Maple my internal thought process at the time were basically "he isn't gonna exe him if he gets a card". Especially plausible given ladd flipped green
but I'm not gonna harp on it to hard unless maple becomes a wagon
Bullet points, wisdom has:
* OMGUS pushed back against bop d1
* OMGUS pushed ladd, and also not actually engaged ladd critically with that. she asked him exactly 0 questions for his reasonings when he sussed her.
* pushed extremely widely townread player didistetter
* pushed extremely widely townread player grr
Sometimes villas have an offgame and have very out of field takes but this an extremely inaccurate gameview and also very plausible to be a way to reduce spew to a minimum (mostly sus people where it doesnt generate additional info for town when you flip wolf). Also dead villas all had her in the bottom of their reads. she was also a CW to ladd.
It's just where I'm at you don't have to agree. Cya later.
here's another thing
I think there's a world where Wisdom's scumreads this game have 0 wolves
D2 they have me/Gemma/Vanta. I know I'm town, I think Gemma is town. I think that Vanta's EOD is kinda unpairred from Benneh in the sense of why do that as a wolf and I think that they were a villager setting up for that switch in the last hour tbh (wheras Benneh's was pure opportunism)
EOD3 they have Vanta, ladd, gemma, and maple. Don't need to write anything more on this except for maple, and it's just I think Jan got the card (also think in retro them getting on Maple was opportunistic but at the same time was a bit disconnected from the thread which is a good look). Jan also claimed that Maple would be cut off from wolf chat so I think that Maple is bringing Jan's real thoughts to the thread which is a town point.
During d3 they were also pushing Monte a bit and tbh I think Monte does look a good amount worse now but I don't think Im going for him today
because i was specifically and directly told that we were killing wisdom and jailing maple, that i was not needed for the day, and to go rest up?
and then i voted my best wolf read on the way out?
like come on you have to be actively attempting to twist things around to try and wolf read me if this is where youre at
Oh also I forgot about another point, so imma do that quickly: She pushed gemma who she said would clear her in #2850
This is another safe push in the "ok this player is in a difference check with me anyway so I can call them a wolf safely" category. ok gone again.
So I spent the night thinking about it and I think I have to operate under the assumption that it's possible Benneh didn't know the wolves after the lost wolf goon signal. Not necessarily certain, but it also explains a bit why he'd basically be spinning wheels in the middle ground and keeping a relatively low profile without pushing anyone overly hard. Which means I don't want to give any villager points from Benneh spew to people.
which is fine, we can just ignore the bullshit and just focus on people posting woofy to solve.
I do still think the wolves certainly knew benneh in this case after the signal so I do want to still read into spew in that direction.
EOD1 late:
I've been rereading Insomnia and want to shore up that read a bit.
I floated the idea last game day of Insom's eod1 making sense in a Insom/Gemma/Benneh/Syn world. With Insom shading Ladd for pushing Gemma, shading Knights over Gemma because "knights wants to live more", and then hopping on Syn without reading posts. However, I do not think this the case anymore despite the Benneh flip. In this world now, Insomnia would have to be pretty much bussing the entire team. I say this because if I rewind back to a bit before eod1 Insomnia WAS voting Gemma (it even sparks a discussion with Ladd about "spooky votes on Gemma"), then voted Syn, and now I know he opens up day 2 by voting Benneh. So in this scenario, Insomnia would need to be bussing the entire team yet not be leveraging it into killing any villagers or getting the obvious credit (hadn't read any of syns posts, etc, says "voting people you dont remember anything of" when voting benneh).
I also note that killed villagers had Insom as a strong villager too.
I look at this vote count from when Insom voted Syn and there are plenty of opportunities to vote a villager and instead he lands on Syn in a "haven't read their posts lmao" way.
So I think Insom is just a villager?
So it's day 4 and I think it's usually a great idea to reset once you hit the midgame and just methodically go through the player list and reevaluate all of your reads. Just a good way to not get locked in and cover all the bases. So I'm going to do that.
Villagers
Sunbae (thats me!)
Dyachei (vig, pew pew)
Grr (locked in by like every dead villager)
Insom (voted syn d1, voted benneh to open day 2, called villager strongly by Arctic and Ladd and Bop)
Leaves me a pool to work from of:
Vanta
Gemma
Ender
Wisdom
Maple
Mont
Knights
Dolby
So I'm going to continue working through this list today. It's not finished obviously, just working through the process and figured it'd be more fun to show the process than just post a list at the end. I think I have to work from that villager list being pure.
@Vanta Black
I am ready for the very outlandish theory :help:
A small note:
I do not think Knights and Gemma are paired based on eod1. Knight's responses to Gemma and Gemma voting Knights before they all pivot to Syn just doesn't strike me as paired. It's the way that Knights shades Gemma and eventually has the "do you really think I'm wolfier than (someone I forget) or syn?" post that Gemma says "no not really" or something similar before moving off. There would also be insane amounts of bussing here?
I also do not think Gemma and Wisdom are paired. But I think the threads been hammering that one so I won't explain it further.
Vanta,
that post says you have been making notes on players. Could you share where your heads at with different people?
Also, if you're wondering why I'm so concerned about the lost wolf signal from Benneh:
If benneh is a pack wolf then I think I can clear Wisdom and Ender from the way Benneh talked about them. Wisdom was an early defense with an overly long explanation post and then went after Wisdom later when possible. Then with Ender Benneh jumped on my early suspicion which is not how he'd treat a teammate or anything.
The issue is I don't know if I can actually do that. Which is why I'm quite annoyed at the signal post (good post Benneh).
Headache day
Vote:Maple This is still a wolf, but I'm guessing not arsonist. I'm not really sure who the other ones are, not confident that Gemma's wolfing right now.
Dya/Dolby/Grr/Insomnia all town I think. So 1-2 wolves in [Sunbae Knights Ender Vanta Gemma]. Gut still says Vanta/Gemma but I dunno.
My current take on Mont is that:
- their eod1 of unvoting Rask (a villager to a wolf) while Syn is starting to get wagoned
- their eod2 of claiming lovers with Rask (a villager to a wolf) to try and save Rask as the last moment
- their day 3 posting including their insistence that wisdom is the best kill to solve to gemma reads towny to me (in that "a villager thinks something, repeats it a bunch, nobody else is really thinking that way but they truly believe it so they dont care and keep repeating it)
has me leaning villager but I can't lock it in without first exploring how the Ladd vote came about closer and not really having a huge "this person is clear" certainty moment
uh, im reading through enders iso and its quite villagery?
There is 0 way I go over, over you. If you want to not die today, try someone else. If you try pushing me, you are just going to die pathetically.
If you are village, I implore you to push someone else, even if you genuinely believe I'm a wolf because this just seals your fate.
Im a bit disappointed that Ender and I have just been sending smoke signals back and forth this game cause its always fun to vibe with him :(
Can I get your thoughts on my "oh no, Benneh posted a lost wolf signal and now I don't know if I can read into his thoughts on Wisdom?" thing cause I'm kind of hung up on it and backburnering a Wisdom iso until later this game day because of it.
I'm gonna be honest here: I've just been ignoring the wisdom/maple claim stuff and will just be trying to solve people by their postings.
like, i can't know for sure if Jan was roleblocked or spared maple and I feel like theres enough info in the thread to not bank the game on guessing which one is which you know?
and i think "just focus on the people not being villagery" has been working out (syn/rask/benneh) and should continue working today if we go through the game and solve
I like my town core posted above and think we can probably expand it if we work together. Im close to putting ender in it (side note: a inverter and a booster seems weird to both be villa but again, not gonna focus on that too much I just wanna mention it)
Outside of Dya/Insom/Grr who is everyones "i will bet the game on them being a villager" read?
Idk what to make of that but Ben makes lost wolf jokes all the time so...
Gemma is my next lock town sunbae
ok dya/insom
Lets say we add Gemma/Ender
Sunbae
dya
Grr
Insom
Gemma
Ender
Leaves us with:
Vanta
Wisdom
Maple
Mont
Knights
Dolby
Do we have any unpairings in this six?
I've been operating under the assumption that its 4 wolves + sk vs 16 villagers (so 11/2). I suppose maybe 5 isnt out of the realm of possibility so 9/3 in that case.
Ok I read a bit more.
@dyachei or anyone that isn't maple.
Has this happened? do we have the "actual hard confirmation that we can comprehend?" I personally don't but I might be missing something I'm not very experienced with complicated mech stuff?
If not just blast Maple because he should just be outed by him saying Jan actually spared him (I could see a world where Maple is villa and wolves RBed Jan to spew Maple wolf Ig but this by Maple's own word hasn't happened and Jan explicitly changed his mind which I don't think he'd do because that'd mean he went back by his word and he seems very careful about it so I assume he wouldn't.)
There might be a world where both are wolves and maybe its better to kill wisdom first but Maple should be literally outed and so ya know.
maybe i shouldn't give dolby that much leeway for pushing ender, because benneh also did
idk he's been just incredibly villagery imo compared to his wolf games. i didn't get benneh's read there and by extension dolby's, especially since he has meta
gth a team that makes sense (just off PoE and my random gut pings)
dolby / knights / wisdom
that's if we take maple as legit and sunbae as villa, which im not sold on
i really need to read mont though
By what I read by Jan I don't see how Maple above there can not be an outed wolf here ngl? would be super unsound mech play by Jan that I do not get at all?!? his intentions were stated clearly.
yeah, i heavily doubt jan is the type to take back his word to the thread
there's only like 2-3 people i can think of that would do that in the entire database
if we choose to follow this route, then maple is outed because he said jan told him he'd spare him, which wouldn't have happened
if maple is a wolf then it's p much confirmed the wolves have a RBer
also i think if you look deeper, there's a post of jan's saying it's good to jail maple and exe him because if manti is legit, he gets manti's item anyway, so no downside to not executing him
but idk, if i were in jan's shoes (or anyone that would have had his role), after the ladd flashwagon it would've made me even more convinced of just exeing manti /shrug
Wisdom is still reasonable PoE imo blast them both. don't wagon anyone else up. 10 pm and i decided to be kind to myself going forward wrt to playing mafia in general so im calling it quits for today even if i'll probably read a long a bit. gn.
if manti is a wolf i actually did p good this game
think i made a post yesterday saying the votes should be benneh or maple
ig problem is with wisdom and maple being two wolves then benneh outing to kill ladd is p much game losing so idk whats up with that but feels very unlikely.
anyhow kill them both listen to dya or something idfk lmaoooo
Vote: Wisdom
Vote: Maple
cya.
I hate only having one vote we need to change mafia game rules to everyone having 2 votes. ok gn for real lmfao.
Vanta seems to have ~similar reads to me which I hope is good, couldn’t find anything else in his iso worth noticing, but he's generally less stilted than I remember him being in his wolf champs game.
Maybe he's just town. Sorry to be late on that train.
Who did maple target n1 again?
why are u even saying this. you repped a confident wolfread some posts ago so I kinda thought you would have reasons for being confident and now u go like "if maple is town"
jfc.
Vote: Maple
Vote: Wisdom
ok i need to force myself away from here now otherwise i will be flipflopping for the next few hours. Consider me undecided but no one else should be the elimination today that's nonsense lol.
Can someone compile the following information into one post for me:
Maples claim
Maples d1 target
Maples d2 target
Maples d3 target
Enders claim
Enders d1 target
Enders d2 target
Enders d3 target
Wisdoms claim
Wisdoms d1 target
Wisdoms d2 target
Wisdoms d3 target
I don't want to get too bogged down in mechanics over posting but I do want that info in one easily accessible place to understand things as clearly as i can
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
just pulling some wisdom posts dont mind me
It ain't much but my streak of locking a town correctly d1 continues. Hopefully the streak of ending the d1 cote on a wolf as well.
I'm sad I didn't mason more with Jan!</3
Spoiler Alert, click show to read:
Idk friends, here's more Wisdom stuff and like
Who are they wolves with?
Benneh was overly defensive early and tried very hard to kill Wisdom.
Definitely not with Gemma.
Definitely not with Maple (repeatedly talking about Maple lying to buy a day while also being under pressure themselves, like going at it for multiple posts in quick succession).
Definitely not with Dolby (snipped at dolby while talking about having said maple had wolf pr vibes d2 and that not everything revolves around dolby, just do not see that as a w/w interaction when surrounded by the rest of the iso).
Shading Knights and Vanta at points including opening d2 with a vote there iirc.
Shading Me.
Shading Grr quite a bit so don't think paired there.
and if I think Ender is town and Insomnia is town that leaves what?
Wisdom/Knights/Mont?
which, meh. idk if i buy that given how hard mont wants to kill Wisdom to clear Gemma
Like ok:
1. I think if Benneh is a pack wolf the way he treats Wisdom makes little sense outside of the worlds where he wants to defend Wisdom early because Wisdom is actually a 2x shot wolf arsonist and got the stett/bop douse/ignite n1/n2 and then once that was used up is expendable to be bussed for credit.
2. Does that timeline line up to when Mont started pushing Wisdom?
3. However, if that's the case that's not how day 3 was lining up. Eod had Benneh on Wisdom but the other votes there were Gemma (not paird), Ladd (villager), Grr (not paired, widely v read by dead villagers), Dya (villa vig), Ender (town read). So if the wolf plan was "defend wisdom til used up and then bus for credit" then where is the rest of the bussing? Knights is on Jan then Ladd, Mont is on Ladd all day.
I think the most likely scenario is just that Wisdom is a villager and Benneh was trying to kill Wisdom because Benneh was a wolf?
ugh, sorry for repeat mq
myself, 10 of swords (pgo, unused)
SoD2 find out I have been inverted, and my role must now target another player
arctic, 7 of Pentacles (was hoping for a commute or smth since apparently this is associated with craftsmen in the context of movement (according to wikipedia))
jan, 10 of Wands (medic, used on dya (chose this cause i thought maybe my cards are *also* inverted, so i grabbed one where upright and upsidedown both seemed like they'd be positive and make someone less likely to die))
Anyway, if you think I can be paired with ben, you're insane. Worse than that, the possibility of me being paired with ben *and* another member of the poe? Like just break it down.
If for example you think wisdom/me are w/w
that's syn/wisdom/me/ben (maybe +1)
what the hell is our plan? Why is ben flipflopping between *both* buses, and only taking the out onto ladd when it's offered. That world just makes *0* sense. Repeat this thought experiment with each other player. Frankly, the only somewhat plausible pairing is me/sunbae, since sunbae was one of the few people who weren't all gung-ho on killing me. Like, getting me jailed by jan -- if im a wolf and therefore am a wolf with a rber -- it is *imperative* that I am left alive for the day and get an extra night so we can RB jan and get me out alive. Ben's play does not support that hypothesis.
And all of *that* puts aside the mechanics of the situation. Jan killing me was stipulated with us voting out wisdom. You think he's still gonna kill me after ladd goes over? He told me in the chat that he viewed ben as an outed wolf. Dya went into the night seeing ben as an outed wolf.
Can you see how me being a wolf here doesn't make sense?
Frankly, I'm shocked that I need to spend time explaining this. Then again, I was also shocked about how d2 went with people's handling of my slot, and *again* on d3 with the fucked cfd. I *wish* i got voted out over ladd. That shit was actually crazy.
so give us some guidance. you're the only one with that belief itg as of right now
and you know your alignment