Ukraine Thread

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Don't know anything about Zelezny, but perhaps more notable is that Trump confirms "Finders Keepers" doctrine for clay:

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1. I don't know anything about Zelezny either. Do you mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Zelazny?
2. And this bears on Ukranian election because...

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

One thing which Ukraine could theoretically do is recognise the de facto independence of the rebel areas and once this is done they would be free to join NATO.

Ukraine would thereby yield territory in exchange for stability and a permanent check on Russian expansion.

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De facto Ukraine recognizes that it can't control some of its territory yet it doesn't make NATO more amenable. I believe you meant de jure?

But anyway, it is inveterately naive to believe that Ukraine will be accepted to NATO after relinquishing the claim on the "rebel areas" (for once because there is the Crimean issue as well - or do you suggest relinquishing that too?) or that it will get any sort of stability or that Russian expansion will be checked. While the current Russian regime is at power Ukraine will get neither of those.

The election campaign gets weirder.
https://edition.cnn.com/2019/04/06/e..._medium=social

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

De facto Ukraine recognizes that it can't control some of its territory yet it doesn't make NATO more amenable. I believe you meant de jure?

But anyway, it is inveterately naive to believe that Ukraine will be accepted to NATO after relinquishing the claim on the "rebel areas" (for once because there is the Crimean issue as well - or do you suggest relinquishing that too?) or that it will get any sort of stability or that Russian expansion will be checked. While the current Russian regime is at power Ukraine will get neither of those.

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I apologise for not being clearer, what I meant was that Ukraine could De Jure recognise the De Facto situation. I'm not suggesting that Ukraine do this, merely pointing out that the doctrine against "aggressive war" is something Russia has used to its advantage and its erosion reduces that advantage.

Russia's doctrine is the one of protecting Russians and Russian speakers wherever it can reach. While Russia deems those in Ukraine oppressed its aggressive policy towards Ukraine will not abate.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

1. I don't know anything about Zelezny either. Do you mean https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Roger_Zelazny?
2. And this bears on Ukranian election because...

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Zemansky Zelensky

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

the doctrine against "aggressive war" is something Russia has used to its advantage and its erosion reduces that advantage.

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Isn't it the other way around?


The idea is interesting, so I'd like to try to reproduce what a case might look like for a gambit almost crazy enough to work.

Ukraine relinquishes all claims to Luhansk/Donetsk (but not Crimea), as well as ceasing hostilities and maintaining only a reduced defensive posture along the border. Luhansk and Donetsk are on their own.

Russia has no more frozen conflict in the East, and therefore loses a potential casus belli. Further, it must decide if it's willing to prop up Luhansk/Donetsk indefinitely with its resources when there is no longer a larger aim - barring total reincorporation of Ukraine into the Federation. (Population of L/DPR more than 10X population of South Ossetia/Abkhazia or 8X population of Transnistria.)

Russia cuts L/DPR loose. If leadership wants to join Russian Federation, either the people vote against or Russia rejects them. After years, tired of being a shithole-tier pseudo-country, L/DPR petitions to rejoin Ukraine. Russia resists because it likes having a buffer between Europe-oriented Ukraine and itself. A compromise is reached for Luhansk and Donetsk to accede as special autonomous and demilitarized zones.

???

Negative gearing


Of course, besides being incredibly risky for Ukrainian integrity, there is still no prospect of restitution for the seizure of Crimea, it likely doesn't help Ukrainian strategic posture if Ukraine does want to join NATO after all (continuing Russian incentive to undermine Ukraine) - and this kind of grand maneuvering is only politically feasible in a videogame anyway.

The comedian is rumoured to be a puppet of his former employer, Igor Kolomoisky. The elections were not that free though, as the communist candidate was banned.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

The comedian is rumoured to be a puppet of his former employer, Igor Kolomoisky.

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This is not accurate. Kolomoisky is the current employer of the comedian since the latter has his shows and films aired on the TV channel belonging to Kolomoisky. Yet the comedian has a much more ramified entertainment business which is outside Kolomoisky's auspices.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

The elections were not that free though, as the communist candidate was banned.

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It is not accurate either. The candidate wasn't banned. Communist and nazi ideologies (and consequently parties) are banned in Ukraine. The candidate, though, could have run as an independent candidate, but he chose not to.

So, the communist candidate was banned.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

So, the communist candidate was banned.

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As a candidate representing the banned Communist party - yes. If he just ran as an individual claiming no support from the Communist party he could have taken his chance. But he wouldn't have scored much - I guess no more than 3-4%.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

So, the communist candidate was banned.

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Many Western Countries have banned certain political parties. Given its history it doesn't seems overly despotic for Ukraine to ban the Communist Party.

Well, the fact that many European countries choose authoritarian measures does not excuse Ukraine for oppressing the communists. After all, unlike Nazism, Communism neither treats a specific group of humans as inferior nor does it call for their extermination. The decision to ban the Communist Party reveals how much the Ukrainian establishment values democracy and the worrying infatuation of Ukrainian nationalism with genocidal historical figures and hysterical, fascist-inspired, anticommunism.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

Well, the fact that many European countries choose authoritarian measures does not excuse Ukraine for oppressing the communists.

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What do you mean under "oppressing"? Communists were just told that their party doesn't exist any more (is illegal), but no one was detained, arrested, sentenced to any terms or persecuted in any other legal way. Moreover, the chief communist (Symonenko) still lives and freely travels all over the country and outside Ukraine. To his hard earned villa in Spain.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

After all, unlike Nazism, Communism neither treats a specific group of humans as inferior nor does it call for their extermination. The decision to ban the Communist Party reveals how much the Ukrainian establishment values democracy and the worrying infatuation of Ukrainian nationalism with genocidal historical figures and hysterical, fascist-inspired, anticommunism.

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You seem to be infatuated with communists as well to make such claims.

Soviet communists proclaimed proletariat and peasants superior social classes (which renders others inferior), called for and (what is still worse) pursued the policy of exterminating bourgeoisie as a social class, as well as rich farmers (called "kulaks") which was coupled with persecuting the clergy (and destroying temples). To say nothing of executing "agents of imperialistic countries" and "enemies of the state" within their own party. Chinese communists did no less gruesome things.

As for Ukraine (unlike the West) not valuing democracy - see above on PFH claims that many western contries banning some political parties and read (elsewehere) on the opinions of international observers as to the way the elections were held.

And fascist-inspired Ukrainians have taken into the secound round of the elections a comedian Jew who is likely to become a new president (with another Jew currently heading the government). Europe has much to worry about.

They are deprived of their right to vote for a specific party, which in no way violates the penal code of the country. This is called oppression and the justification of it is indeed reminiscent of fascism. You will need to show me how the Communist Party of Ukraine supports all that nasty stuff you mentioned. Not that this is the reason for which it is banned, as the parliament and municipal authorities openly celebrate and protect the memory of genocidal maniacs, a hypocritical stance which leads to the conclusion that Kiev is not really worried about the heritage of war criminals.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

They are deprived of their right to vote for a specific party, which in no way violates the penal code of the country. This is called oppression and the justification of it is indeed reminiscent of fascism.

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I see you wish to enter the old debate again. :shrug:

The specific party is responsible for the Femine of 1932-33 and many other evils committed under its guidance while it was at power. And fascists electing Jews as presidents and appointing them prime ministers are very unusual fascists.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

You will need to show me how the Communist Party of Ukraine supports all that nasty stuff you mentioned.

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Supported. It is now banned, you remember.

It is difficult for me to find texts in English which I can refer to. But I have found some:
https://www.kyivpost.com/article/con...?cn-reloaded=1

This is not the first such statement made by the CPU leader. Earlier Symonenko spoke about the Crimean Tatars in a fascist manner. He said that they were fairly deported from Crimea in 1944, because, say, they are betrayers.

https://books.google.com.ua/books?id...stalin&f=false

Other references I can provide are regretfully in Russian and Ukrainian. In them the leader of the Ukraninian communists more than once outlined the positive image of Stalin and spoke in likewise manner of Crimean Tatars.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

Not that this is the reason for which it is banned, as the parliament and municipal authorities openly celebrate and protect the memory of genocidal maniacs, a hypocritical stance which leads to the conclusion that Kiev is not really worried about the heritage of war criminals.

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It was the same parliament that appointed Groisman Prime Minister of Ukraine, right?

But let me quote the articles you linked.

The Ukrainian parliament last week declared January 1 a national day of commemoration for Stepan Bandera, who briefly joined forces with the Nazi occupation of Ukraine. A nationalist, Bandera hoped the Germans would allow his country independence from the Soviet Union, though the Nazis later arrested him.

Some of his supporters at the Organization of Ukrainian Nationalists, which he headed, committed countless war crimes against Jews.

If we call all who "briefly joined forces with the Nazis" collaborators, should we not start with Stalin, the leader of the Communist Party of the USSR? And if you paid attention, Bandera fell out with the Nazis (as Stalin did) and was not just "arrested" but spent all the rest of WWII in Sachsenhausen concentration camp. Isn't the place befitting collaborators?

And we start condemning a person for what "some" of his supporters did we might as well mention Marx whose numerous supporters and followers did many unsavory things in the USSR, China, North Korea, Cambodia and elsewhere.

And I can give you one more fact that ANY history is a dirty thing:
https://www.thejc.com/news/world/wha...ed-him-1.57961

The bottom line (unless you want to carry on):
history was full of iniquitous and noble deeds. Some of them were committed by the same people. These people deserve glorification for the latter and condemnation for the former.

Fascism=/=Antisemitism.
I didn't know that Marx was the leader of the Khmer Rouge, the Bolsheviks and the CCCP. Naughty, naughty Karl!

Bandera and his merry band of sociopaths slaughtered tens of thousands of Poles, which is why I called them genocidal maniacs and not "German collaborators" (although they were), as you strawmanly tried to imply. Peltura may have verbally opposed the pogroms, but his henchmen continued to casually massacre the Jews. I think Peltura, as an adult and Supreme Commander/President of the Ukrainian Republic should be held responsible for the crimes of his subordinates.
I hope that the Ukrainian society will eventually find the necessary maturity to examine its history objectively, without feeling the need to glorify bloodthirsty monsters.

What do you personally think of Bandera and the Volhynian genocide? Do you believe that a couple of dead Ukrainians justify the ethnic cleansing of thousands of Poles?

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Originally Posted by Crandar

Fascism=/=Antisemitism.
I didn't know that Marx was the leader of the Khmer Rouge, the Bolsheviks and the CCCP. Naughty, naughty Karl!

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All of them claimed to have been Marxists. So Marx had as much to do with actual slaughters as Bandera with the Volyn massacre.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

Bandera and his merry band of sociopaths slaughtered tens of thousands of Poles, which is why I called them genocidal maniacs and not "German collaborators" (although they were), as you strawmanly tried to imply.

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As I have remarked Bandera was in the concentration camp, so he slaughtered no one. And I would like to have proofs (preferebly by a psychologist) that "his merry band" were sociopaths.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

Peltura may have verbally opposed the pogroms, but his henchmen continued to casually massacre the Jews. I think Peltura, as an adult and Supreme Commander/President of the Ukrainian Republic should be held responsible for the crimes of his subordinates.
I hope that the Ukrainian society will eventually find the necessary maturity to examine its history objectively, without feeling the need to glorify bloodthirsty monsters.

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As I have said, almost each historical personality has good and bad deeds in his record. We should glorify the former and denounce the latter.

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Originally Posted by Crandar

What do you personally think of Bandera and the Volhynian genocide? Do you believe that a couple of dead Ukrainians justify the ethnic cleansing of thousands of Poles?

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I think we should treat the cases of Bandera and the massacre separately. I have no great admiration of the man taking into account his "dark side". But one can't forget his ultimate purpose - the creation of the Ukrainian independent state. So for me he remains a controversial figure. But so are many others including those of Israel, who committed war crimes against Arabs back in the 1960s or were involved in terrorism earlier, but are glorifeid there as founders and defenders of the country.

As for the massacre, I think it horrible. But it doesn't make the massacres of Ukrainians by Poles less horrible and you seem to gauge the iniquity of the crime depending on the number of victims. A couple of dead Ukrainians don't seem to upset you. Although it is not true, there were more than a couple, the victims number thousands.

A couple of years ago Poroshenko took part in commemorating the Polish victims and asked for forgiveness on behalf of Ukraine. I don't remember the reciprocate action on the Polish side.

Zelensky wins with 73%.

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In a very Ukrainian twist, there are questions over whether Zelenskiy is really so removed from the traditional political players. Journalists have discovered flight records suggesting he made frequent trips to Tel-Aviv and Geneva, the twin bases of exiled oligarch Ihor Kolomoyskiy, and a number of Zelenskiy’s inner circle are also linked to the businessman, who owns the channel where Zelenskiy’s television programmes appear.

The election thus ends up looking quintessentially Ukrainian: a president who promised he would take on the oligarchs but is actually an oligarch himself, against an actor known for playing a fictional president who takes on the oligarchs, but who is in fact controlled by an oligarch.

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Soviet humor?

Hey guys remember when I was like "Putin is a fascist" and yall were all like "no this is just geo politics"

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Originally Posted by Strike For The South

Hey guys remember when I was like "Putin is a fascist" and yall were all like "no this is just geo politics"

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Putin's been steadily working at rebuilding the Russian Empire.

Putin pushes his game ever further:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-u...-idUSKCN1S01LU

Now we have the names.
https://www.bellingcat.com/news/uk-a...wning-of-mh17/

Russia is returning to PACE.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/06/1...-european-law/
Europe is on its way to business as usual with Putin.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

Russia is returning to PACE.
http://euromaidanpress.com/2019/06/1...-european-law/
Europe is on its way to business as usual with Putin.

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Sanctions seldom work, leaving Europe with a choice between treating all of Russia like a pariah state a la SA in the 1970s, launching a war to take back Ukraine, and going back to business as usual. You are enough of a realist to see what happens.

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Sanctions seldom work, leaving Europe with a choice between treating all of Russia like a pariah state a la SA in the 1970s, launching a war to take back Ukraine, and going back to business as usual. You are enough of a realist to see what happens.

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Not sanctions, but THE sanctions. The sanctions introduced against Russia.

Complaining that sanctions don't work is like complaining the treatment doesn't work. In spite of what the doctor prescribed, you take just one pill a week and expect the disease to abate. Probably, you should take two pills a day, than you can see whether the treatment works.

As for returning Russia to PACE, it was denied the right to speech (after which it left the premises and stopped payments into PACE's budget) as a response to aggression in Crimea and Donbas. Has anything changed? Has Crimea been returned to where it belongs? Have the Russians withdrawn from Donbas? No, moreover, Russia's guilt in shooting down MH17 has been proved, Russia ignores resloution of the same PACE to release Ukrainian sailors captured in November 2018. What is PACE's reaction? Let Russia appear in the assembly hall (and get the money back). I applaud the integrity and consistency of Europeans. Especially the Dutch, who lost 200 people in the plane crash.

Realistically, we would be at war were it not for the Nukes.

Let's not pretend it's diplomacy keeping the peace.

I feel for the Ukranian people, I do, but the fact NATO does not have the means to resolve the situation and the sanctions weren't doing much.

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

Realistically, we would be at war were it not for the Nukes.

Let's not pretend it's diplomacy keeping the peace.

I feel for the Ukranian people, I do, but the fact NATO does not have the means to resolve the situation and the sanctions weren't doing much.

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League of nations was not shy to expel a perpetrator back in the 1930s. I don't see why modern international bodies can't follow suit for similar transgression. At least this they can do without any war.

As for sanctions, why not cut off Russia from SWIFT and introduce oil embargo? For a start. Then we will see if sanctions work.

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Originally Posted by Gilrandir

League of nations was not shy to expel a perpetrator back in the 1930s. I don't see why modern international bodies can't follow suit for similar transgression. At least this they can do without any war.

As for sanctions, why not cut off Russia from SWIFT and introduce oil embargo? For a start. Then we will see if sanctions work.

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The League of Nations failed in part BECAUSE it expelled members.

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

The League of Nations failed in part BECAUSE it expelled members.

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First of all, it expelled only one member (AFAIK).

Now you will tell me PACE is a thriving organization? It bans a member from voting and sets conditions, the member ignores them, and then PACE says "Alrightie, just pay your sub, will you, and you are pardoned" (= pay and do whatever you want). What country will obey PACE's injunctions after that?

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Originally Posted by Philippus Flavius Homovallumus

Realistically, we would be at war were it not for the Nukes.

Let's not pretend it's diplomacy keeping the peace.

I feel for the Ukranian people, I do, but the fact NATO does not have the means to resolve the situation and the sanctions weren't doing much.

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Sadly, I doubt that. Ukraine is not a NATO member, the Russians are quite close and Western logistics much more tenuous, and NATO in general shows a decided disinterest in bleeding to advance its agenda. Since that is the only currency that counts in this kind of thing...

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Sadly, I doubt that. Ukraine is not a NATO member, the Russians are quite close and Western logistics much more tenuous, and NATO in general shows a decided disinterest in bleeding to advance its agenda. Since that is the only currency that counts in this kind of thing...

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You Americans, so sentimental.

Shutting Russia out of the Crimea and Karlingrad leaves most of their fleet ice-locked for half the year.

NATO is an alliance of convenience, strategic convenience, and Russian aggression is inconvenient - makes trade difficult.

Plus - it's 27/06/19 and Putin is still basically a Fascist.