XCOM Mafia [Concluded]

So I've decided to group together some interesting posts from these last 24 hours.

Manasi:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by Manasi

sup.

Leave me alone, Barto. I got the :daisy: done and then decided to relax for a second. I thought it'd be better if I let you guys know before because I knew I'd be working for like 20 hours straight.

Still a wagon feelsbadman.


5 PM EOD feelsbadman.


Prolly won't be around, mostly bc I'll probably just be coming home from work.


As for slight catch up...

• Csargo is town.
  
• I think novice is town. -- Yes, that means I think we had v/v/v wagons. I know that's unreasonable, just a gut read.
• I feel like I'm not gonna be able to be very happy this game until we resolve Sooh, but that might be me just being stubborn.
  
• El Barto dropping RAPIDLY. Would vote today or tomorrow.
• Should be around for the rest of the day unless my other boss realizes he hasn't seen me in something around a week.

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Oh yes, girl, I was completely onto you.

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Originally Posted by Manasi

Oh. I forgot to give Cuth a town read!

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wtf???

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Originally Posted by Manasi

I think there have been two people in this game who have town read me.

Good work, you guys.



People just seem comfortable in their POE and I'm gonna be at work/in a car until EOD.

I do still think that people are just overlooking auto which really :daisy: bugs me.

I have maybe read one BSmith post but I'd go for them over me if it came to it.



I don't think Sooh has been posting better but I also don't think she's getting lynched in any world today so rip.


Sooh, what were the questions I didn't respond to?

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Again with autolycus, what's with you, lass?

So, considers novice to be her town core, Csargo and Cuth are also town to dilute it.

Novice:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by novice

Welp, just seven hours left in the day?


I meant, were you really that sussed?


It was a crosspost.



Should also include post 1535:


Town:
novice

Not willing to lynch:
Cuthillius
Dp101
Winston Hughes

Don't think so:
Sooh
Fredwood

Willing to lynch:
autolycus
BSmith
Csargo
El Barto
Logic
Manasi
Montmorency

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Strange coincidence - both novice and Manasi have Cuthillius as part of their town core. This is either very good shading or poor distancing/pocketing.

Let us remember that Cuthillius spearheaded the lynch of askthepizzaguy on D2. And that he also started the BSmith bandwaggon.

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Originally Posted by novice

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Also, your scum list is way too long. Can you sort out who are the more likely scums?

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Not so easy. Maybe:

Willing to lynch:
Manasi
Montmorency

More willing to lynch:
Csargo
El Barto

Even more willing to lynch:
autolycus
BSmith
Logic

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But now, see, when novice's list is the centre of attention, he drops Cuthillius from it altogether. Best not to discuss him.

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Originally Posted by novice

Good job, novice!

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Yay, yay, yay, right?

tl; dr: spews Cuthillius as highly possible third partner.

BSmith:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by BSmith

...and now it looks like I am just popping in because I am being talked about, but in reality it is my first real break in the day from work. Oh well. Life happens.

As to me being directed, I can assure you that no such thing is happening. I’m calling it as I see it and like I said in retrospect my vote on ATPG looks bad and the timing is being construed negatively, but with the limited time I have to post in the day that is just how it played out. Take that how you will. I said before and I’ll say again, I’d vote ATPG again given the chance and the info I had at the time. If that earns me a lynch, then so be it.

But I don’t want to die today, so vote: Manasi.

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Hmmm. Sounds a bit more like a misinformed townie than anything else. And he did vote Manasi.

Dp101 avec Montmorency:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by Dp101

I would not be opposed to a Csargo Cfd.

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At :08 no less!

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Originally Posted by Dp101

Vote: BSmith I'll explain why later, you just have to trust me for a bit.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Fredwood started the wagon. Cuth, Csargo 3rd.

Fine, since they're among my towniest, let's put their process to the test and see if they're not saving scum Manasi or novice.

Vote: BSmith

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At :56 and :57!

I do not think Monty would be that clumsy. Dp101's doing what he can to save his scumsister.

Updated reads: novice is dead meat. If (when) he dies, test Cuthillius and Dp101.

Maybe there is a third party, maybe there isn't. We'll have to check on that.

fake edit: I'll check Montmorency's 1739.

Barto, at least for Cuth, how do you weigh his claim to have poisoned Pizza? You think this is the inverse of Manasi last game?

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Barto, at least for Cuth, how do you weigh his claim to have poisoned Pizza? You think this is the inverse of Manasi last game?

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Good point! Manasi may well have gotten the idea off my attack on her that game and used it here to justify how one of them could be moving towards pizza if he was watched that night and then they could claim to have been trying to cure him. I'm still mulling it over.

While I read your "BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS", did atpg ever say anything about the poisoning? Poison attacks, injuries and so forth have been a constant in the UFO games since the very first one, so it's presumable that Zack would have informed him of that so that he could seek an antidote/medikit.

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Originally Posted by El Barto

Updated reads: novice is dead meat. If (when) he dies, test Cuthillius and Dp101.

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:beam:

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Originally Posted by El Barto

Good point! Manasi may well have gotten the idea off my attack on her that game and used it here to justify how one of them could be moving towards pizza if he was watched that night and then they could claim to have been trying to cure him. I'm still mulling it over.

While I read your "BSMITH-NOVICE WAGON ALIGNMENT ANALYSIS", did atpg ever say anything about the poisoning? Poison attacks, injuries and so forth have been a constant in the UFO games since the very first one, so it's presumable that Zack would have informed him of that so that he could seek an antidote/medikit.

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AFAIK Pizza just said he was VTown and never received any notice of poisoning, that he felt Cuth was town but lolCuth.

Look up "lolCuth", gonna be out for a bit.



Csargo, respond to my alignments analysis, it addresses all your questions just now.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

AFAIK Pizza just said he was VTown and never received any notice of poisoning, that he felt Cuth was town but lolCuth.

Look up "lolCuth", gonna be out for a bit.

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I'll try a few keyword searches.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Csargo, respond to my alignments analysis, it addresses all your questions just now.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

The guy who died N2, crimson_snow. I don't have links.

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This is very likely just me tinfoiling, but I think a scum is more likely to remember who was bulletproof than a townie. (At least, I had to look it up.)

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Originally Posted by crimson_snow

What about it? I feel like one of us is confused here.

I was a 1-shot bulletproof, I'm almost positive I was the shot night one. I may or may not be the shot tonight.

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FoS: Csargo

Without more research, I have novice and Csargo as likely wolves. If there is a 4th, I don't have a strong read yet.

I have sooh as my only confirmed town, but I feel a lot better about Monty than I did before Manasi's flip.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

AFAIK Pizza just said he was VTown and never received any notice of poisoning, that he felt Cuth was town but lolCuth.

Look up "lolCuth", gonna be out for a bit.



Csargo, respond to my alignments analysis, it addresses all your questions just now.

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You didn't respond to my first one though.

It's weird Manasi didn't vote to save herself, she was here EoD right?

You continue to put a huge amount of weight onto Fredwood's half a paragraph about BSmith, that amounts to exactly what everyone already knew about BSmith's behavior. Could all your hypotheticals be true? Sure they could, but this is conspiracy theory levels of connection that you're putting forward imo. You're pulling it out of nowhere as far as I can tell, outside of we voted together. There's more of a connection between Cuth/Dp than me and Fredwood. We need flips, plain and simple.

You've also subtracted 3 people from the equation, with little explanation as to why, other than they look good and don't fit together.

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Originally Posted by Logic

This is very likely just me tinfoiling, but I think a scum is more likely to remember who was bulletproof than a townie. (At least, I had to look it up.)

FoS: Csargo

Without more research, I have novice and Csargo as likely wolves. If there is a 4th, I don't have a strong read yet.

I have sooh as my only confirmed town, but I feel a lot better about Monty than I did before Manasi's flip.

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Seriously, just remember his huge claim post. Do you not commit claims to memory as important? Also remember Cuth claiming to have poisoned ATPG. This is such a ridiculous statement.

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Originally Posted by Logic

This is very likely just me tinfoiling, but I think a scum is more likely to remember who was bulletproof than a townie. (At least, I had to look it up.)

FoS: Csargo

Without more research, I have novice and Csargo as likely wolves. If there is a 4th, I don't have a strong read yet.

I have sooh as my only confirmed town, but I feel a lot better about Monty than I did before Manasi's flip.

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You also realize that I voted novice right?

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Originally Posted by crimson_snow

So, having some medical/real life issues right now, but since it looks like we die without our role showing, I'm going to claim.

I'm town bulletproof, and 99% sure I was the kill on N1. Wolves know they shot me, and there may or may not be a second component to my role. Maybe it's my own setup design leaking through, but I consider it pretty unlikely to have a full doc + bulletproof both in the setup, so in case they decided to shoot me again tonight wanted to give out the setup info I had.

My first post of game was an attempt to dumbtell a power role, I planned to role play as a newb derp to bait roleblocks/night kills, but I got sucked into the game a bit and it became pretty obvious it wasn't serious.

I'm not fully caught up, and won't be caught up anytime soon (maybe at night, or maybe not until next day phase, assuming everything goes alright), but I'm pretty sure Champ is a wolf, and I'd bet quite a lot on one between El Barto and Manasi, leaning towards the former. I'd also bet a fair bit on there being 1+ in the inactives because I have a lot of town reads on fairly active players - that makes Autolycus/BSmith targets to keep a close eye on.

I think Pizza is town, I think Novice is town, I think Cuth is town, I think CSargo is town, I think Fred is town, I think Sooh is town.

Winston and DP are the lightest of town reads.

Champ
Manasai
El Barto
Autolycus
BSmith
Logic
Montmorency

That's my PoE, with some obvious pairs not knowingly aligned in there.

Vote: Champ in spirit, but not comfortable placing a real vote without having fully caught up.

Won't be around rest of day, glglgl.

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boop

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

day end at 11:30 manasi

i have to go soon, won't be back for eod

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Another one who warns in advance of his absences and tells Manasi what she should already know.

I'll do better searches and so on tomorrow. Tonight I'm destroyed, it's past midnight and it was a very long day.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

You also realize that I voted novice right?

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As did Logic.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

You didn't respond to my first one though.

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How does it make sense for me to vote Dp101 D1 in that situation?

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It's not a good question. If both DP and Jowy are town but you had a standing case against DP, why wouldn't you try to get DP lynched? It certainly doesn't appear to cost you.

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You continue to put a huge amount of weight onto Fredwood's half a paragraph about BSmith, that amounts to exactly what everyone already knew about BSmith's behavior.

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I don't put weight on it - I put weight on the connection between that post and that wagon, your connection to it, and the overarching environment of a Manasi wagon with novice not a close second. As I formulated, there are indeed situations in which these connections clear you and Fred, for instance when both novice and BSmith are scum or when just BSmith is scum. If novice is scum or especially if both BSmith and novice are town, I don't see how you can claim the events of D3 don't look more or less bad for you.

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Sure they could, but this is conspiracy theory levels of connection that you're putting forward imo.

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That's...Mafia. :rolleyes:

Indeed it is a conspiracy when scum design a counterwagon to save a partner - doesn't make it uncommon or an unviable speculation.

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There's more of a connection between Cuth/Dp than me and Fredwood.

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On D3? Any other day? What's that?

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You've also subtracted 3 people from the equation, with little explanation as to why, other than they look good and don't fit together.

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3 people? I counted Logic and Winston as wildcards because it's difficult to form a Mafia core around them, while the two most interesting and productive pairings were what I investigated and how the rest, or what else, fell into place around them. The other 5 players were independently looking better than Winston and Logic, though auto least of that pack due to lack of content.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

You also realize that I voted novice right?

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Crucially, you had promised to vote anyone over Pizza. Would have been much worse for you to do otherwise.

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It's not a good question. If both DP and Jowy are town but you had a standing case against DP, why wouldn't you try to get DP lynched? It certainly doesn't appear to cost you.

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I was tied with Jowy 3-3 when I switched to Dp, so why would I leave it up to a coin flip? That doesn't make sense for me to move as scum.

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I don't put weight on it - I put weight on the connection between that post and that wagon, your connection to it, and the overarching environment of a Manasi wagon with novice not a close second. As I formulated, there are indeed situations in which these connections clear you and Fred, for instance when both novice and BSmith are scum or when just BSmith is scum. If novice is scum or especially if both BSmith and novice are town, I don't see how you can claim the events of D3 don't look more or less bad for you.

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They'd look bad for everyone on the wagon. I said Manasi looked bad D2, but backed off of it because she voted Dp and I'm smitten. You're manufacturing a connection that barely exists, while ignoring everyone else that was on the wagon. I never said it wouldn't look bad, I'm saying you're postulating a connection that can't be argued against, while saying 3 others don't make sense as a possibility.

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That's...Mafia. :rolleyes:

Indeed it is a conspiracy when scum design a counterwagon to save a partner - doesn't make it uncommon or an unviable speculation.

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Indeed. You've left out Cuth as the initiator though.

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On D3? Any other day? What's that?

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They voted together D2-3, boom.

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3 people? I counted Logic and Winston as wildcards because it's difficult to form a Mafia core around them, while the two most interesting and productive pairings were what I investigated and how the rest, or what else, fell into place around them. The other 5 players were independently looking better than Winston and Logic, though auto least of that pack due to lack of content.

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I'm talking about the people on the BSmith wagon.

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Crucially, you had promised to vote anyone over Pizza. Would have been much worse for you to do otherwise.

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I also said I wasn't voting outside of novice, Logic, Manasi, Barto today iirc.

Basically what you're saying is you think me and Fredwood look the worst on the BSmith wagon, and you like everyone else. There's no real connection, except the one in your head.

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I was tied with Jowy 3-3 when I switched to Dp, so why would I leave it up to a coin flip? That doesn't make sense for me to move as scum.

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?

I think you are talking about something different. I was drawing attention to Pizza's evaluation on potential cooperation between Manasi and Csargo, instantiated by the mutual vote onto DP at the time (as several noted you would have been safer alone by staying on Jowy). Pizza also commented on other interactions or allusions between you two, but tended to conclude (at that point in time) that Manasi-Csargo would be too "goat-y".

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They'd look bad for everyone on the wagon.

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The wagon was you, Fred, and Cuth. So you're saying I should give more weight to Cuth's potential as a partner to one of you?

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I said Manasi looked bad D2, but backed off of it because she voted Dp and I'm smitten.

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What does this have to do with anything?

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You're manufacturing a connection that barely exists, while ignoring everyone else that was on the wagon.

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Now I'm really confused. What are you talking about here?

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They voted together D2-3, boom.

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That's a much weaker connection and you know it. Stop screwing around.

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I'm talking about the people on the BSmith wagon.

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So again with Cuth? As you know DP and I were last minute votes, and I addressed the impact of the different scenarios on DP, which you should know if you read them.

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Indeed. You've left out Cuth as the initiator though.

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Fredwood was the first to bring it up in that part of day. He voted as soon as Cuth did.

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I also said I wasn't voting outside of novice, Logic, Manasi, Barto today iirc.

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Is that good?

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Basically what you're saying is you think me and Fredwood look the worst on the BSmith wagon, and you like everyone else. There's no real connection, except the one in your head.

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No I don't, I gave you specific situations and what it would look like for you and others. Either you are really confused or you are BSing me.

Don't have the energy right now for anything more, but just a side note that Manasi's role basically confirms 4 scum, one of each class, so keep that in mind when making your teams.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

?

I think you are talking about something different. I was drawing attention to Pizza's evaluation on potential cooperation between Manasi and Csargo, instantiated by the mutual vote onto DP at the time (as several noted you would have been safer alone by staying on Jowy). Pizza also commented on other interactions or allusions between you two, but tended to conclude (at that point in time) that Manasi-Csargo would be too "goat-y".

Sure, we cooperated, but what did I stand to gain if I was scum? You seem to be looking at D3 in a vacuum, not the overall picture. Manasi is 100% scum, so I tied myself with Jowy to vote with my scum partner on Dp101. In what world does that make logical sense?

The wagon was you, Fred, and Cuth. So you're saying I should give more weight to Cuth's potential as a partner to one of you?

Why are you ignoring every other possibility? Bussing, offwagon, ect. Why is it focused on me and Fred? There's no point in arguing about this, because there are so many possibilities.

What does this have to do with anything?

I forgot Manasi flipped.

Now I'm really confused. What are you talking about here?

The bulk of your analysis was directed at me and Fred.

That's a much weaker connection and you know it. Stop screwing around.

Why? We don't know the alignment of novice. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

So again with Cuth? As you know DP and I were last minute votes, and I addressed the impact of the different scenarios on DP, which you should know if you read them.

Yeah. I saw.

Fredwood was the first to bring it up in that part of day. He voted as soon as Cuth did.

He made a general post about a bunch of different people, along with BSmith.

Is that good?

It shows that I'm flexible, and not afraid of blow back.

No I don't, I gave you specific situations and what it would look like for you and others. Either you are really confused or you are BSing me.

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I just think your scope is very limited. I'm probably also confused.

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?

I think you are talking about something different. I was drawing attention to Pizza's evaluation on potential cooperation between Manasi and Csargo, instantiated by the mutual vote onto DP at the time (as several noted you would have been safer alone by staying on Jowy). Pizza also commented on other interactions or allusions between you two, but tended to conclude (at that point in time) that Manasi-Csargo would be too "goat-y".

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Sure, we cooperated, but what did I stand to gain if I was scum? You seem to be looking at D3 in a vacuum, not the overall picture. Manasi is 100% scum, so I tied myself with Jowy to vote with my scum partner on Dp101. In what world does that make logical sense?

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The wagon was you, Fred, and Cuth. So you're saying I should give more weight to Cuth's potential as a partner to one of you?

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Why are you ignoring every other possibility? Bussing, offwagon, ect. Why is it focused on me and Fred? There's no point in arguing about this, because there are so many possibilities.

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What does this have to do with anything?

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I forgot Manasi flipped.

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Now I'm really confused. What are you talking about here?

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The bulk of your analysis was directed at me and Fred.

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That's a much weaker connection and you know it. Stop screwing around.

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Why? We don't know the alignment of novice. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

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So again with Cuth? As you know DP and I were last minute votes, and I addressed the impact of the different scenarios on DP, which you should know if you read them.

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Yeah. I saw.

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Fredwood was the first to bring it up in that part of day. He voted as soon as Cuth did.

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He made a general post about a bunch of different people, along with BSmith.

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Is that good?

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It shows that I'm flexible, and not afraid of blow back.

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No I don't, I gave you specific situations and what it would look like for you and others. Either you are really confused or you are BSing me.

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I just think your scope is very limited. I'm probably also confused.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Manasi >> Bsmith >>> rest, could be scum hedging on the outcome especially if he expects a Dome between the two, but the center mass here is more revealing since it offers so much space to shift. I hope Winston can clarify his leans tonight.

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Yeah, I'll be around for an hour or two before night ends to take a closer look.

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

So is novice scum or what?

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Rereading him yesterday, I couldn't make much sense of his game as either alignment, which usually suggests town.

But his relative positioning is so bad here, and his flip will yield so much data, that I'm inclined to put him at the top of the lynch pile, even though the likes of BSmith and Logic come off more scummy.

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Originally Posted by Csargo

Sure, we cooperated, but what did I stand to gain if I was scum? You seem to be looking at D3 in a vacuum, not the overall picture. Manasi is 100% scum, so I tied myself with Jowy to vote with my scum partner on Dp101. In what world does that make logical sense?

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First of all, you're describing the situation inaccurately.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by Dp101

This wagon formation always lynches a wolf.

Tally as of post 606:

Lynch votes
2 votes: Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)
2 votes: Champ (crimson_snow, Jowy)
2 votes: El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 votes: Csargo (Dp101, novice)
2 votes: Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
2 votes: Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo)
1 votes: No Lynch (Montmorency)
1 votes: Dp101 (El Barto)
1 votes: Novice (autolycus)
1 votes: Manasi (Champ)
1 votes: Logic (Winston Hughes)

Voting history:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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It was a 6-way tie with at least 4 townies (Champ/GH and Jowy flipped, plus myself and Sooh). If you were the scum wagon of the lot, then Jowy voted you and Barto and Champ voted Jowy.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

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Originally Posted by Zack

Official Tally as of #620

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Day 1 ends in:

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4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto, Champ)

3 Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy)

2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)

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Not Voting: (everyone has voted :2thumbsup:)

Not Posting: (everyone has posted :2thumbsup:)

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If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

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Then you switched with Manasi (from Sooh) onto DP, and DP was pressured to self-pres onto Jowy.

You were already set for the round voting Jowy, and so switching to DP actually works at least as well - maybe better - when Manasi backing you up on the sudden switch onto DP was coordinated between partners as opposed to a random scum move by Manasi, which would also make less sense for her to do if it wasn't in conjunction with a partner. Recall that you had Pizza's absolute backing, and he was willing to lynch either Jowy or DP to protect you.

Second, it was D1.

I'm not going to hold it against you for misrepresenting EOD1, but you should drop the complaint now. You're not pristine, so stop taking umbrage when I present the most reasonable points only for the fact that they put you in a slightly negative light.

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Why are you ignoring every other possibility? Bussing, offwagon, ect. Why is it focused on me and Fred? There's no point in arguing about this, because there are so many possibilities.

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There are not many possibilities, and this is the likeliest one. Manasi wagon looks strong, Fred presents a case against BSmith but doesn't vote, Cuth comes out voting, Fred and Csargo immediately take advantage. If you really want I'll factor in a possible Cuth scum into all the scenarios, but the bottom line is that if BSmith flips town these events look bad for you and Fred individually, and open the possibility of a pairing. This isn't a remote possibility, this is basic wagon analysis and it's one of the most compelling arguments that can be made on the basis of the context. Of course, if Bsmith flips scum it looks very good for all three initiators of the BSmith wagon. Why is this so difficult to accept for you?

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The bulk of your analysis was directed at me and Fred.

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And novice and Bsmith. That's what I said. That's the point.

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Why? We don't know the alignment of novice. I don't think it's outside the realm of possibility.

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Cuth/DP partnered with novice is not outside the realm of possibility, but I don't see why you would say that wrt the connection between Cuth and DP being stronger than the connection between you and Fred D3 when it doesn't have any relevance to that comparison? Again, I feel like you might have a different question and answer in mind than I do.

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He made a general post about a bunch of different people, along with BSmith.

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He said:

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Originally Posted by Fredwood

BSmith: His vote is the worst of anyone's for me. It doesn't feel right that a low poster would have that much of an impact on an outcome of a big lynch. It feels like the vote was being directed. It's too beneficially timed and beneficially scum to be made on his own when he hasn't been able to pay much attention to the game to this point and the Pizza v Novice debate was a very content heavy one. Could be an apology patsy vote. It wasn't last second but it did build the distribution to at least make a Pizza lynch more likely.

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That's a pretty strong attack.

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I just think your scope is very limited.

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Only in the sense that I don't cover the entire game and every possible pairing because some players have higher priority than others. Not even Pizza would bother with that kind of analysis between a dozen players at once.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Montmorency

Then you switched with Manasi (from Sooh) onto DP, and DP was pressured to self-pres onto Jowy.

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Would this not suggest that DP is clean?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Zack

Official Tally as of #620

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Day 1 ends in:

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4 Jowy (Askthepizzaguy, Csargo, El Barto, Champ) - 1 Csargo = 3

3 Csargo (Dp101, novice, Jowy) = 3

2 El Barto (Fredwood, Sooh)
2 Montmorency (Logic, Cuthillius)
2 Sooh (BSmith, Manasi)

1 Askthepizzaguy (Montmorency)
1 Champ (crimson_snow)
1 Logic (Winston Hughes)
1 novice (autolycus)

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Not Voting: (everyone has voted :2thumbsup:)

Not Posting: (everyone has posted :2thumbsup:)

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If you notice anything wrong, PM me.

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I'm tired of this argument, and I don't think it's leading anywhere useful. My entire point was i stood to gain nothing by switching. I increased my probability of being lynched, to vote with Manasi. Had Pizza not browbeat Dp into switching, it was a 50-50 shot I was going to be lynched D1. Had Dp not realized he was third, he wouldn't have switched. I'm not misrepresenting it, you're just not getting the point I guess. I'd never move there as scum.

I'm not going to continue to argue with you because I know how you are Monty, and I have no desire to keep this up. I don't see the point.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Would this not suggest that DP is clean?

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It doesn't seem like Dp was aware of the vote count because it was 3-3-2 with Dp having the latter. The cfd by Manasi makes him look squeaky clean though if that's what you're talking about.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Csargo

It doesn't seem like Dp was aware of the vote count because it was 3-3-2 with Dp having the latter. The cfd by Manasi makes him look squeaky clean though if that's what you're talking about.

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Yeah.

Monty? I have one wish. Can we leave Csargo until BSmith and Novice are resolved?

I don't want a reprieve Sooh, if you think I'm scum then lynch me tomorrow.

Not much content to work with on BSmith. Both the frequency and style of his posting is similar to previous town games, but I can't find any recent scum games for comparison, and what he's shown here would not require any serious fakery to achieve.

Where he looks terrible is his votes. Cuth did make a good defence of novice, and pizzaparanoia is a well-documented effect, but that vote smacks of opportunism in the same way Manasi's did, and I feel like a townie BSmith wouldn't be so ready to lynch pizza before giving him a decent shot at catching scum here. Yesterday's events didn't show him in any better a light either, with the move onto Csargo in particular looking like nothing more than an attempt to shove someone else in the frame to save both him and Manasi.

He'd maybe look a touch better if novice flips town, but it still would be nowhere near clearing, and he'd probably still be in the top 2-3 suspects.

Logic getting an early townpoint off Manasi was what made me suspect the pair of them in the first place, and the fact that they straight ignored each other (and my suspicions) after that made me feel like I'd hit a nerve.

Only by the time that Manasi's pizza vote had put her squarely in the frame does that change at all, and even then it's all very mild, and nothing that seems at all likely to have contributed to suspicions against Manasi. Throw in the attempted counterwagon on Csargo, and it does not look good at all.

Where Logic does look better (than BSmith, at least) is on tone. I don't recall ever having seen him as scum, but there is a certain lightness about his posting that feels fairly townie. That, combined with the fact that he'll look far better if novice flips scum, is enough to keep him out of the lynch zone at this stage.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sooh

Monty? I have one wish. Can we leave Csargo until BSmith and Novice are resolved?

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Obbviously. To do otherwise would defeat the point of the analysis. :study: