Mafia VIII: Return of the Recommencement of the Revenge of the Mafia [Concluded]

I agree, there's plenty that is questionable about pever, but I don't see the harm in letting him live. Give him more time to explain himself. Lynching him now won't reduce the number of kills anyway, even if he's mafioso. If he's the detective, he's our only power role. If pever doesn't satisfactorily explain himself in the future, then we can lynch him. It's not like he can easily fade back into obscurity at this point.

Also, if pever is not the detective, then the real detective may still out there somewhere. That person would have some innocent results by now and could easily contact the people he knows to be innocent and use them as a proxy to discredit pever.

No private reveals by the Detective. It's stated in the rules.

Pevers reveal does seem a bit dodgy, but is it worth the risk lynching him when he could be the detective, this would be a great time for the real detective to reveal if he isn't infact khaan, if the detective could pm one of the dead players (who im guessing are confirmed innocents, bar pk maybe who got lynched rather than killed, which is ironic really)

Edit: damn so detective can't pm me or andres....

only way i can think is for detective to reveal in thread...

Firstly I think pever is likely a townie, not a mafioso, because his reveal seems to be a modified townie PM. Thus I think TinCow voting him saying he is mafia is very suspicious after he just voted Kagemusha on pever's behalf. In fact, I would FoS: TinCow for that. He certainly knows better than this and he is likely Mafia.

Now, as to the twist/hint

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Ichigo

NNVTHMST-???

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This is getting us somewhere. Is no one else working on this???
I would however emphasize (to prevent mafiosi tinkering with it) that we should post the whole sentence where the letter was missing.
I also think Ichigo is innocent as a result.

As for my analysis:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

The birds had returned since the unexpected disturbance of their morning routine yesterday, although they were not singing, as if wary that there would be a similiar breaking of the silence today.

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Extra letter, not missing. Still, maybe useful

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

Andre, out of breath, stopped automatically to wave back and chat with the man. "Excellent morning for running, I do say," he said aimiably.

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Missing the S in Andres and having an extra i in amiably.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

Craterus, deep in the Frontroom marshes, watched the ducks fly away with his high-powered binoculrs.

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Missing the a in binoculars

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

"Downtown," he muttered, pocketing his bioculars and getting into his old blue car.

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Missing the n in binoculars

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

From what he gathered, it had to be there, consdering that the birds were flying in all directions away from that area and that he had heard the shot from his house, meaning that it was probably fired on a roof where there wasn't much to block the sound from going far.

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Missing the i in considering

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

"Didd't adyone eber tell you dat the victibs are suppode to go quiedly?"

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This one is a far cry, but useful to keep in mind for future reference.

So the confirmed missing letters so far: S A N I
->Sanity?

[edit]
Also worth considering:
S N from the fedora type
A I from the other guy

People with S and N in their name:
woad&fangs
shlin28
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Gaius Scribonius Curio
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88
Seamus Fermanagh
Joe Monks

People with A and I in their name:
RoadKill
makaikhaan
Sasaki Kojiro
Caius
Gaius Scribonius Curio
Mithrandir
Tiberius of the Drake
KukriKhan
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88
Crazed Rabbit
FactionHeir

The problem of course is that we don't know if the letters are supposed to be a name or a code. I suppose the next nights will tell more.
Also note that there was 1 letter missing per night phase kill.

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Originally Posted by Ichigo

Says the guy who voted himself...

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Yeah, but doing it on the first day turn did minimal damage to the town. The chances of finding mafia on day 1 were miniscule. I thought it was better to "take one for the team" and help out while dead.

Acting goofy while a townie should be treated the same as abstainers and lurkers. They should be lynched if you can't find mafia. It is in the town's best interest to cull out the people who say "btw I'm mafia" a few day turns into the game.

Acting goofy on turn one is one thing. But doing it 3 or 4 turns into the game just makes you an unhelpful townie.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Gaius Scribonius Curio

Because of that nasty intstinct that you seem to be missing...

...the survival instinct! :laugh4:

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If your a townie, you shouldn't have a survival instinct. You win if the town wins whether your dead or alive. A survival instinct is the trait of scum.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Andres

And guys, this is discovery1's usual playstyle, so I don't think disco is a good lynch...

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No but he is not being helpful and should eventually be lynched if no better candidates are found.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Elite Ferret

Heh, after seeing your cunningness in Star Wars I'll always be suspicious of you and PK as well because he's PK :yes:

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I'm honored. :bow:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by peverpink

Ok I lied, I thought I'd try to pull a spartan for fun.

Im actually the detective, ive investigated:

Night 1: Sasaki (I always investigate Sasaki first, hes innocent)
Night 2: Andres (Yup, innocent, he died >_>)
Night 3: Kage (well CR is normally right...he is again. We has a mafia!)

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I don't buy this for a second. I think pever got bored being a townie, decided to mess around with WIFOM, got caught, and is now trying to save himself. I don't think he is mafia or the detective. I just think he is being a really bad townie.

Put an equal amount of votes on both Pever and Kag to get them to start talking more. Which ever one satisfies you the most, should be saved for one round.

Ichigo: Can you post the sentences where you found the missing letters in case I missed some?

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Originally Posted by TinCow

I agree, there's plenty that is questionable about pever, but I don't see the harm in letting him live. Give him more time to explain himself. Lynching him now won't reduce the number of kills anyway, even if he's mafioso. If he's the detective, he's our only power role. If pever doesn't satisfactorily explain himself in the future, then we can lynch him. It's not like he can easily fade back into obscurity at this point.

Also, if pever is not the detective, then the real detective may still out there somewhere. That person would have some innocent results by now and could easily contact the people he knows to be innocent and use them as a proxy to discredit pever.

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Well there are several possiblities:

a) pever's claim is genuine;
b) pever lied:
b) 1) pever is mafia
b) 2) pever is a townie who tries to protect the detective by posting a fake reveal (it has been
done before, I think)

If we are giving pever the benefit of the doubt, then I suggest that the reveal detective investigates pever and, in case of a 'guilty' gives us the results tomorrow. In the meanwhile, the town can lynch Kage.

Or pever could be a townie who is lying for fun. He seems to get bored as a townie and like to "spice things up". We all play for different reasons. But his reasons seem to be bad for the overall health of the town. So he should probably get lynched eventually unless he becomes more helpful.

A townie can be most helpful by being active and providing analysis and opinion. It is more difficult for mafia to hide in this enviroment. Allowing people to get away with creating a joke-filled environment gives the mafia cover. It's the same with allowing lurkers or abstaining.

The mafia hide in the environment that the rest of the town creates. Anyone who is creating an environment that helps the mafia, is an unhelpful townie and needs lynching.

Mafia are usually small in number and have difficulty creating the environment themselves. It makes them stand out. They usually sit and follow the cues of the town.

Like I said, throw votes on both Kag and pever. See what they say. Lynch one of them. Then pressure the other tomorrow.

OK, I'll go with the "give pever the benefit of a doubt" plan, because I can't explain his motivation (and he hasn't either). His accusation against Kage is too shaky to trust.

unvote: peverpink
vote: Mithrandir

^^My default position: vote off the lurkers, intentional or not.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by KukriKhan

OK, I'll go with the "give pever the benefit of a doubt" plan, because I can't explain his motivation (and he hasn't either). His accusation against Kage is too shaky to trust.

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If we give pever the benefit of the doubt, then shouldn't Kage be our lynch for today?

If we assume pever is the detective, then what exactly is shaky about "Hi, I'm the detecive and my investigation result shows Kage as guilty"?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Kukrikhan

unvote: peverpink
vote: Mithrandir

^^My default position: vote off the lurkers, intentional or not.

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Most of the lurkers will be dealt with by the Wrath of God (WoG). We should pay attention to the lurkers within a day or 3, namely to those who haven't posted much and still managed to avoid the WoG by then.

Vote: pever

The fake PM is grammatically incorrect (should be a comma before "or").

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

Firstly I think pever is likely a townie, not a mafioso, because his reveal seems to be a modified townie PM. Thus I think TinCow voting him saying he is mafia is very suspicious after he just voted Kagemusha on pever's behalf. In fact, I would FoS: TinCow for that. He certainly knows better than this and he is likely Mafia.

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I suspect you've mixed up someone else's post with one of mine. I haven't voted for pever, I've been defending him.

Giving pever one more night to prove himself isn't too much to ask, so I say we lynch Kage and lynch pever tomorrow.

This letter stuff is confusing me though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TinCow

I suspect you've mixed up someone else's post with one of mine. I haven't voted for pever, I've been defending him.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by TinCow

Er... Unvote: Ichigo.
Vote: Kagemusha

Pending a response from Kage.

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Quote:

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Originally Posted by TinCow

You think pever is a townie? Why would he make up a fake detective PM if he was a townie? :inquisitive: Detective, yes. Mafioso, yes. Townie, no.

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:inquisitive:

Anyway, your mention of the letters early on is somewhat redeeming which is why I didn't vote you outright.

And now for something completely different:

Vote: Beefy

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beefy

This might have been said before but...

Can mafia kill two players if they are down to one players?
Sorry if this has been said. I got no time to go through all post just yet..

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Blatant WIFOM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beefy

Im just checking. Am I not allowed to check anymore? My parents always told me to check even its the most obvious thing.. Besides if I was a mafia I wouldnt even have to ask that...

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Blatant WIFOM.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Beefy187

Vote: Pever

Thats for creating WIFOM situation:whip:

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Third on a bandwagon.

Tally:

peverpink = 6 (Ichigo, Sarathos, Beefy187, Joe Monks, woad&fangs, CountArach)

Kagemusha = 3 (peverpink, TinCow, Sigurd)

discovery1: 2 (Caius, Gaius Scribonius Curio)
Tiberius of the Drake: 1 (makaikhaan)
Crazed Rabbit: 1 (Tiberius of the Drake)
Mithrandir = 1 (Kukrikhan)
Sasaki: 1 (Discovery1)
makaikhaan: 1 (RoadKill)
Seamus Fermanagh: 1 (Sasaki)
Beefy187: 1 (Rythmic)

Let's look at pever's posts in conjunction with his supposed night activites.

N1: He supposedly investigates Sasaki and finds him innocent at the beginning of D1

Then he posts this:

1, 2, 3

(post 3 is interesting. It was in response to Ichigo's post about the Sasaki bandwagon. If pever found Sasaki to be innocent, why encourage a baseless bandwagon on him?)

After that was this:

4

Then we went into N2 where he supposedly investigated Andres and found him to be innocent.

During N2:

5

During D2:

6

Then he does not post in the thread at all for over 2 days. Keep in mind that he has now supposedly investigated Kag and found him to be mafia.

Then, early on today, he makes this post out of the blue:

7

He makes a vote on discovery while supposedly knowing for sure that Kag is mafia. And then he goes all WIFOMish. If he was really the detective, he would have placed a well reasoned vote on Kag and would not have WIFOM'd in such a blatant manner.

Then when caught in the WIFOM, he posts this:

8

Now he is in hot water, he votes for Kag.

9

Here he posts his "reveal". It seems like a blatant ripoff of the townie PM. Plus he never posts his night action PM's.

then finally:

10

Here he still tries to keep suspicion on Kag.

At this point, I say keep an eye on Kag but I would guess that he is innocent. Pever had ample opportunity to vote for Kag but didn't until he saw he was about to get bandwagoned. My guess is that Pever is not the detective. I don't think he is mafia either. He seems far too careless. But he is being a very bad townie and seems like a good lynch for today.

I don't get the how the missing letters work... can anyone explain it to me?

Withholding vote until later.

We're looking for lost letters and several letters appear to be 'out of place' in the write-ups.

Pever is clearly not the detective. One will have to look back and see if he is a townie faking for fun or a mafioso.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Pever is clearly not the detective. One will have to look back and see if he is a townie faking for fun or a mafioso.

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I did. (just 4 posts above.) My guess is he is a townie faking for fun.

Is everything ok Sasaki? You seem very much "off your game" lately...

:inquisitive:

vote: Sasaki

Just because I don't want to abstain.

I'm almost positive that Pever's having fun here. Its not something that totally surprises me if so. Reveal is bad, makes little sense, and he's behaving too goofy to be mafia. Folks, leave him alone and vote for someone who's actually been scummy; like, oh, Tiberius?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

vote: Sasaki

Just because I don't want to abstain.

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Do you really mean to tell us you have no other suspects other than Sasaki? I said he seemed "off his game", not guilty.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makaikhaan

I'm almost positive that Pever's having fun here. Its not something that totally surprises me if so. Reveal is bad, makes little sense, and he's behaving too goofy to be mafia. Folks, leave him alone and vote for someone who's actually been scummy; like, oh, Tiberius?

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Regardless, it is proving to be a distraction. He is throwing a lot of suspicion on to Kag who might very well be innocent. Townies who distract the town in such a way end up helping the mafia. So they should be lynched. Do not keep them alive or they may very well try to distract the town some more with their bored antics.

Though it makes me wonder why your defending him. Are you protecting your scum-buddy?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Do you really mean to tell us you have no other suspects other than Sasaki? I said he seemed "off his game", not guilty.

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Tell you, not tell us. Big difference :tongue2:
And no, I'm waiting for more night kill writeups before making any serious attempt at a vote as currently any vote is more likely to diminish the town's power by lynching innocents unless we have a really strong lead.

Besides, does it matter if I vote pever or someone else today? He's sure to be lynched anyway.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Do you really mean to tell us you have no other suspects other than Sasaki? I said he seemed "off his game", not guilty.



Regardless, it is proving to be a distraction. He is throwing a lot of suspicion on to Kag who might very well be innocent. Townies who distract the town in such a way end up helping the mafia. So they should be lynched. Do not keep them alive or they may very well try to distract the town some more with their bored antics.

Though it makes me wonder why your defending him. Are you protecting your scum-buddy?

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Because its a waste of a lynch to take out someone who we are almost certain of is a townsperson. Even an unhelpful townsperson is still a townsperson, and thus, we're only ensuring that we DON'T lynch a mafioso. Now if people had the sense to realize he was being a fool and nothing more, than he wouldn't be a distraction, now would he? That's sorta why I'm trying to get people to realize that he's not a detective, so we can basically tune him out.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

Ichigo: Can you post the sentences where you found the missing letters in case I missed some?

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Quote:

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"Didd't adyone eber tell you dat the victibs are suppode to go quiedly?"

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Here.

:gah: I thought you had found more.
Ah well. Go with my list then. :yes:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

Tell you, not tell us. Big difference :tongue2:
And no, I'm waiting for more night kill writeups before making any serious attempt at a vote as currently any vote is more likely to diminish the town's power by lynching innocents unless we have a really strong lead.

Besides, does it matter if I vote pever or someone else today? He's sure to be lynched anyway.

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Yes it is important to get everyone talking and adding analysis. If you keep sitting out, you deprive us of not only your analysis, but of the opportunity to analyze your statements.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makaikhaan

Because its a waste of a lynch to take out someone who we are almost certain of is a townsperson. Even an unhelpful townsperson is still a townsperson, and thus, we're only ensuring that we DON'T lynch a mafioso. Now if people had the sense to realize he was being a fool and nothing more, than he wouldn't be a distraction, now would he? That's sorta why I'm trying to get people to realize that he's not a detective, so we can basically tune him out.

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Your right, mafia are priority. But after that, we should move on to unhelpful townies. People who lurk, abstain, or goof off are not making our job easier. So they should go if no better lynch subject arises.

And pever might very well be mafia. I personally doubt it but it is possible. Why are you trying so hard to convince us he is a harmless townie?

I found them first though...

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Your right, mafia are priority. But after that, we should move on to unhelpful townies. People who lurk, abstain, or goof off are not making our job easier. So they should go if no better lynch subject arises.

And pever might very well be mafia. I personally doubt it but it is possible. Why are you trying so hard to convince us he is a harmless townie?

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I'm pretty sure he's not mafia because when he is, he isn't this goofy; rather he tries to be helpful to some degree. When he's not get a role, this is what he has often done; playing for personal enjoyment before trying to help the town win. In Netherworld, when he was mafia, he tried to "help" lead the town in their efforts to win. Here, he's just being deliberately unhelpful; hence, I believe him to be just his regular, unhelpful self.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Yes it is important to get everyone talking and adding analysis. If you keep sitting out, you deprive us of not only your analysis, but of the opportunity to analyze your statements.

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I don't think you can argue that I have not contributed towards the town :yes:
If we keep this back and forth between us, then the real mafia gets a chance to lurk.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Your right, mafia are priority. But after that, we should move on to unhelpful townies. People who lurk, abstain, or goof off are not making our job easier. So they should go if no better lynch subject arises.

And pever might very well be mafia. I personally doubt it but it is possible. Why are you trying so hard to convince us he is a harmless townie?

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Because he is a townie.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FH

If we keep this back and forth between us, then the real mafia gets a chance to lurk.

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Much like you've been trying to do. Well, you've at least been trying to stay "low-key".

As for the lurkers, we'll go after them too if they don't get WoG'd.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makaikhaan

I'm pretty sure he's not mafia because when he is, he isn't this goofy; rather he tries to be helpful to some degree. When he's not get a role, this is what he has often done; playing for personal enjoyment before trying to help the town win. In Netherworld, when he was mafia, he tried to "help" lead the town in their efforts to win. Here, he's just being deliberately unhelpful; hence, I believe him to be just his regular, unhelpful self.

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And therefore, deserving of death.

(OOC: in mafia games that is :clown:)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

And therefore, deserving of death.

(OOC: in mafia games that is :clown:)

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And that's unfortunately where you're wrong. This is quite fortunate for the town, because we can simply tune him out and leave him be. Why do the mafia a favor and kill someone whom we're quite sure is a regular(even if unhelpful) townsperson. Anytime you can get a near confirmation of innocence, its good because you can turn the lynch to someone who might actually be a mafioso.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makaikhaan

And that's unfortunately where you're wrong. This is quite fortunate for the town, because we can simply tune him out and leave him be. Why do the mafia a favor and kill someone whom we're quite sure is a regular(even if unhelpful) townsperson. Anytime you can get a near confirmation of innocence, its good because you can turn the lynch to someone who might actually be a mafioso.

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If you have a better target, I'd like to hear it. And I'm not convinced yet by the arguments against Tiberius.

Pever distracted the town and tried to throw suspicion on Kag, who might very well be innocent. We should let him live because?

Though I still keep wondering why your fighting this so hard...

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Though I still keep wondering why your fighting this so hard...

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Why are you? :shrug:

Even you don't think pever is mafia so why lynch him? The aim is to lynch the mafia so there's little point in lynching someone who is believed to be innocent. Thus, may as well lynch another possibly-more-helpful, but possibly mafia, 'townie'.

Tiberius blatantly ignored previous data given in two different posts to lodge a quick vote before soon disappearing into the background again to lurk. Further condemning, he completely mischaracterized CR's vote in an attempt to justify his own vote. What part of that do you not feel is scummy?

Btw, I could say that you're trying awfully hard to make sure pever DOES get lynched. The pendulum swings both ways. :devilish:

PK the Grand Inquisitor :clown:
You happy with khaan and my answers now or you want to continue to grill us and let some others get away with killing townies?
Those that don't reply to you are probably a lot more scummy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Craterus

Why are you? :shrug:

Even you don't think pever is mafia so why lynch him? The aim is to lynch the mafia so there's little point in lynching someone who is believed to be innocent. Thus, may as well lynch another possibly-more-helpful, but possibly mafia, 'townie'.

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Because I'm trying to figure out why khaan is going so hard-corp on Tiberius but he gives Pever a total pass. At least be consistent...

And again, if there is a better choice than pever, than name it. Otherwise, cull the unhelpful townies from the group.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makaikhaan

Tiberius blatantly ignored previous data given in two different posts to lodge a quick vote before soon disappearing into the background again to lurk. Further condemning, he completely mischaracterized CR's vote in an attempt to justify his own vote. What part of that do you not feel is scummy?

Btw, I could say that you're trying awfully hard to make sure pever DOES get lynched. The pendulum swings both ways. :devilish:

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If you don't know CR, he does come off as guilty at first. He fooled me in Taormina. I see Tiberius as just lurking right now. Go after him if he doesn't get WoG'd.

As for me, go ahead and swing that pendulum back if you think it will help you. Pever seems to be doing a good enough job getting Pever lynched. I'm now turning my sights on those who are trying to protect him and enable poor townie behavior.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

PK the Grand Inquisitor :clown:
You happy with khaan and my answers now or you want to continue to grill us and let some others get away with killing townies?
Those that don't reply to you are probably a lot more scummy.

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No I'm not happy. Both of you tripped off my radar. As for those who don't reply, we'll go after them soon enough when they don't get WoG'd.

Talking and analysis help the town. Letting this place stay quiet does not help the town.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

No I'm not happy. Both of you tripped off my radar. As for those who don't reply, we'll go after them soon enough when they don't get WoG'd.

Talking and analysis help the town. Letting this place stay quiet does not help the town.

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Tune your radar then.
As I said, there is no point is pursuing false leads which allow the true suspects to hide under the pretense of conversation going on.

And remember that GH said that just posting in the thread without voting abstain counts as abstain and won't get you WoGed.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

Tune your radar then.

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Sorry, you'll have to do better than short, light, and fluffy comments to convince me your innocent.

Quote:

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As I said, there is no point is pursuing false leads which allow the true suspects to hide under the pretense of conversation going on.

And remember that GH said that just posting in the thread without voting abstain counts as abstain and won't get you WoGed.

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Why are you so convinced they are false? Why do you seem to fear conversation? If your a townie, you would welcome discussion. You would welcome analysis and opinion.

Your attempts to solve "Da'General's Code" could just be an attempt to appear like your helping when your really not.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

If you don't know CR, he does come off as guilty at first. He fooled me in Taormina. I see Tiberius as just lurking right now. Go after him if he doesn't get WoG'd.

As for me, go ahead and swing that pendulum back if you think it will help you. Pever seems to be doing a good enough job getting Pever lynched. I'm now turning my sights on those who are trying to protect him and enable poor townie behavior.



No I'm not happy. Both of you tripped off my radar. As for those who don't reply, we'll go after them soon enough when they don't get WoG'd.

Talking and analysis help the town. Letting this place stay quiet does not help the town.

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I've named my suspects and, as it stands, none of them have done anything to convince me otherwise. You can look back for it though.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Sorry, you'll have to do better than short, light, and fluffy comments to convince me your innocent.
Why are you so convinced they are false? Why do you seem to fear conversation? If your a townie, you would welcome discussion. You would welcome analysis and opinion.

Your attempts to solve "Da'General's Code" could just be an attempt to appear like your helping when your really not.

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Nice try in getting some uncertainty into other people's minds with nagging questions, but they don't work. There is a limit to how much discussion is welcome and how much starts to harm the town.
That limit in my opinion has been exceeded.

I certainly do welcome analysis and opinion, but you must direct such works properly rather than analyze where there is nothing more to analyze.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by makaikhaan

Tiberius blatantly ignored previous data given in two different posts to lodge a quick vote before soon disappearing into the background again to lurk. Further condemning, he completely mischaracterized CR's vote in an attempt to justify his own vote. What part of that do you not feel is scummy?

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Tiberius acts like this in almost every game i've seen him in. He pops up about once per round and puts up either a random or bandwagon vote. I pretty much just tune him out, even though it seems scummy. I believe the only time i've seen him as mafia, he was trying to be active and helpful.

Vote: Beefy

Bold your vote please

Bold your votes AntiWarmanCake... :yes:

I will vote Ichigo

Reasons:

1. Methinks he is being 'helpful' to fool the town.
2. Now that LittleGrizzly's dead I need to find someone else to be the victim of my instinct.
3. Ichigo hasn't been mafia for ages, laws of probability dictates that he has to be one eventually... possibly now.

Laws of probability indicate nothing of the sort. Ichigo has the same chance of being mafia in this game as anyone else.

The chance of him not being mafia goes from say 19/20 in one game, 18/20 in the other game, gradually the odds would grow smaller, even though the probability in that one game appears to be random.

I think...

Why? Games do not accomodate for predecessors.

You can flip a coin 4 times and it might come up tails 4 times. The next time you flip it, the odds will still be 50/50.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

Nice try in getting some uncertainty into other people's minds with nagging questions, but they don't work. There is a limit to how much discussion is welcome and how much starts to harm the town.
That limit in my opinion has been exceeded.

I certainly do welcome analysis and opinion, but you must direct such works properly rather than analyze where there is nothing more to analyze.

---

Time for some more analysis then.

Here are some of your earlier posts:

Quote:

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Hmmm they killed 2 lurkers

vote: LittleGrizzly for being the third person to FoS during night phase.
I think myself, Kagemusha and RK are definitely innocent judging from posts so far.

---

Quote:

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My guess would be makaikhaan (Andres voted him and got killed) or LittleGrizzly (R1 suspicious) still.
As I said previously, I still think RK and Kage may be innocent.

For now, vote: makaikhaan

---

Ok, so then you thought Kag was innocent and Khaan was guilty. You took a stance. You put forth opinions.

Then this morning you do this:

Quote:

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Firstly I think pever is likely a townie, not a mafioso, because his reveal seems to be a modified townie PM. Thus I think TinCow voting him saying he is mafia is very suspicious after he just voted Kagemusha on pever's behalf. In fact, I would FoS: TinCow for that. He certainly knows better than this and he is likely Mafia.

---

How do you jive both Kag and pever being ok? Your so sure Kag is innocent but you don't mind that pever is causing votes to be thrown on Kag by his false reveal.

Then you go and do this:

Quote:

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vote: Sasaki

Just because I don't want to abstain.

---

Where went all that suspicion towards Khaan? What happened to stating a strong opinion? All of a sudden, your going to abstain, so you throw what is basically a random vote towards someone who is hardly active this game?

Quote:

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Tell you, not tell us. Big difference
And no, I'm waiting for more night kill writeups before making any serious attempt at a vote as currently any vote is more likely to diminish the town's power by lynching innocents unless we have a really strong lead.

Besides, does it matter if I vote pever or someone else today? He's sure to be lynched anyway.

---

Now your waiting? Why weren't you waiting the first two days? All of a sudden you think there is "less" evidence out there? As for pever, why the continued disinterest? He tried to get Kag lynched who you have been telling us is innocent.

Quote:

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You happy with khaan and my answers now or you want to continue to grill us and let some others get away with killing townies?
Those that don't reply to you are probably a lot more scummy.

---

Now your defending khaan? But you thought he was guilty. What changed?

Quote:

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I don't think you can argue that I have not contributed towards the town
If we keep this back and forth between us, then the real mafia gets a chance to lurk.

---

A real townie would welcome questioning. For they have nothing to hide. And they would not fear death, for they would still win if the town wins.

All of a sudden my attempt to get conversation and analysis going seems threatening to you.

Why?

Even though events are unlinked, the probability of a person getting the same role are growing smaller and smaller.

Its like this, if you flip three coins in a role, the probability of you getting three heads is smaller than you getting two heads and then a tail.

So there is a comparably high possibility of Ichigo being mafia than say a person who has been mafia for the last couple of games.

Edit: This is addressed to Craterus.

This post has convinced me.

Unvote: Kagemusha
Vote: peverpink

Just to be sure, though, it would be a good idea to lynch Kage tomorrow.

My reasoning for RK and Kag was based on the townie PM and the way they responded to my post immediately. Call it a bait.

LG seems a bit scummy to be the third FoS, nothing serious.

khaan due to him being the only person to vote Andres who was killed. Vote mainly to make him talk.

His behavior now obviously suggests he is a townie.

As for pever, only someone behind the moon would think he's mafia :clown:

My main suspicion is on TC at the moment, but not enough for me to vote him.

Thanks FH.

I find that this helps me. I hope it helps others too. I think it is important to tease out people's thoughts and motives. It also helps to see if people contradict themselves.

:yes:

So you are not going to vote me?

For president of course!

Privateerkev is dead. So no, he isn't going to vote for you.

FoS: FactionHeir

I was mafia in The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly...

Damn... that means I wasted 10 minutes thinking about my theory over nothing... :sweatdrop:

Unvote: Ichigo

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

So you are not going to vote me?

For president of course!

---

(i'm dead...)

I've been looking at your list and have you considered listing people with all four letters?

People with S, A, I, and N in their name:
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Gaius Scribonius Curio
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88

Omanes Alexandrapolites also but he is dead

I have no idea what it means but I thought I would post it anyways. We'll see next kill phase what letter is missing and then we can match it up and see if anything fits.

FoS:TinCow again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

FoS:TinCow again.

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why? :inquisitive:

Your usually more talkative.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

why? :inquisitive:

Your usually more talkative.

---

If there is one thing I've learned from playing mafia, it's that TC is always up to something scummy...:whip:

"NNVMST"

Good spotting Ichigo, I tumbled onto the same sentence and found it "off" as well, but you were there first.

Try holding your nose and reading the sentence as it is properly said in English -- it doesn't work.

Writing them down like that, the first thing popping into my head was "none of most" as in none of the most.

Unfortunately, I didn't seen anything answer the most "what" portion of that. Most well-known names? Most prolific posters? Most active players?



FH, I don't think you are on the right track. However, if you are, you'll need to do a missing letter analysis of every post in the information thread for this game. It is unlikely that only 4 letters would suffice. Using your assumption, a few missing words in the descrip, it would take more than that to send a good signal. The other posts would have to be grist if your approach is correct.



Odd possibility. "Forgotten letters" in some of our names? Antiwarman and Woad are both missing letters, having replaced them with symbols. Note: this may be fabricating Himalayan peaks from blind rodent tunnelling products.



On another note:

I agree with the analysis that says pever' fabricated his reveal PM. The phrasing does not ring true to GH -- GH'd likely have written "innocent or guilty" (the usual binary phraseology). pever's seems over written and the "after that" doesn't mesh. Does this mean that pever is mafia? Hardly -- as Sasaki can confirm, a townie might reveal himself, falsely, as detective just to bait a response -- but I don't think this post dictates he's necessarily a detective or mafioso.

To be safe however, and because a poorly done false detective reveal by a townie can only detract and not serve as good bait, I'll VOTE: Peverpink fka pevergreen*



* Actually, it doesn't surprise me at all when a Green turns out to be a pinko after all -- bunch of "watermelons," the lot of them! :devilish:

I apologize for showing up so late, but i have been recovering from a nice little boat cruise to Tallin.:sick2:Interesting move by Pever. Either you are a bad townie causing chaos with your fake reveal or mafia trying to bait detective to show himself, but it seems to be pretty illogical to pull out such a stunt this early in the game. In any case this stunt does not help the town in any way.:no: Vote : Pever

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

"NNVMST"

Good spotting Ichigo, I tumbled onto the same sentence and found it "off" as well, but you were there first.

Try holding your nose and reading the sentence as it is properly said in English -- it doesn't work.

Writing them down like that, the first thing popping into my head was "none of most" as in none of the most.

Unfortunately, I didn't seen anything answer the most "what" portion of that. Most well-known names? Most prolific posters? Most active players?



FH, I don't think you are on the right track. However, if you are, you'll need to do a missing letter analysis of every post in the information thread for this game. It is unlikely that only 4 letters would suffice. Using your assumption, a few missing words in the descrip, it would take more than that to send a good signal. The other posts would have to be grist if your approach is correct.

---

Actually I did. There was 1 missing letter in each kill descript.
And when I read through your post I for some reason think you are intentionally trying to make this affair seem less important.
FoS: Seamus

Its quite obvious that your "missing" letters in a sentence spoken by a man with a broken, bleeding nose are intentional and not related (as of current evidence) to the acual hint, for I doubt GH would otherwise have exactly 1 missing letter in each kill descript.

found this in the day 2 post:

Quote:

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"Wow," said Beirut, back to his normal self. "Impressive. I also want to thank you guys for helping me out there. You ee, thanks to the OBI's meddling, I didn't even have an execution planned. Anyway, go back to your homes and hope we made the right decision."

---

Missing another s.

so far, that is S A N I S in no particular order.

Hmmm interesting. I had not looked much at day posts, but this is in D1:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GH

His charges, the villagers of the Frontroom, were doing their civic duty and voting!

---

It should be chargees as Beirut is in charge.
So add an E to the list

This makes it S A E N I S
in order of appearance.

[edit]
Of those whose names fulfill all letters:

Sigurd Fafnesbane
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88

Though Warman only has 1 S, so it suggests its only Sigurd.

unvote: Sasaki, vote: Sigurd
Speak.

While not commenting on anything that's been discussed, I do want to say that, while potentially not gramatically correct, "charges" has been commonized enough where I wouldn't consider it an error.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

This makes it S A E N I S
in order of appearance.

[edit]
Of those whose names fulfill all letters:

Sigurd Fafnesbane
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88

Though Warman only has 1 S, so it suggests its only Sigurd.

unvote: Sasaki, vote: Sigurd
Speak.

---

Also Omanes Alexandrapolites but he is dead.

Sigurd has been rather quiet. It's hard to get a read on him because he admits to switching it up every game. In Taormina, he lurked until lynched, and then got super-active as a ghost. In Star Wars, he was chatty but it ended up getting him lynched. He was mafia in both games.

*edit*
In light of what GH just said, put Curio back on the list.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

While not commenting on anything that's been discussed, I do want to say that, while potentially not gramatically correct, "charges" has been commonized enough where I wouldn't consider it an error.

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So uh, care to correct your writeups of unintended mistakes as to not mislead us poor townies? :grin2:

[edit]
I think that GH wouldn't have commented on the above if it wasn't intended to be so, so we can go from SANIS for now or look for another missing letter in the D1 writeup, that is unless the D2 error was also unintended in which case we go back to my Night-only scenario.

For SANIS, we got:
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Gaius Scribonius Curio
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88 (again, one S too much..)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

So uh, care to correct your writeups of unintended mistakes as to not mislead us poor townies? :grin2:

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Aw, you're cute. ~:pat:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by FactionHeir

I think that GH wouldn't have commented on the above if it wasn't intended to be so, so we can go from SANIS for now or look for another missing letter in the D1 writeup, that is unless the D2 error was also unintended in which case we go back to my Night-only scenario.

For SANIS, we got:
Sigurd Fafnesbane
Gaius Scribonius Curio
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88 (again, one S too much..)

---

I went through the Day 1 post a couple times and I can not find a missing letter. If someone else had better luck, let us know.

Again you keep leaving out Omanes. We should at least keep including him for thoroughness as long as we keep adding the caveat that he is dead.

Maybe he's my scum buddy :clown:
I figured there's no point in including dead people...especially those killed by the mafia

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

Maybe he's my scum buddy :clown:
I figured there's no point in including dead people...especially those killed by the mafia

---

Your assuming the clue will lead to mafia identity. It might be something else. I don't know what, but I don't want to overlook anything.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Privateerkev

Your assuming the clue will lead to mafia identity. It might be something else. I don't know what, but I don't want to overlook anything.

---

unvote: peverpink; Vote: Factionheir
I don't think the surprise is pro-town. The town is already getting a detective and 10+ chances to lynch 2 mafioso. My guess is that FactionHeir is one of the mafioso. After he realized the secret message wasn't going to hurt him he decided to try and figure out what it meant(my guess is the detective's identity). It's a good way to appear helpful while still serving a scummy purpose. Also, I don't like the general tone of his exchanges with PK.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by FactionHeir

unvote: Sasaki, vote: Sigurd
Speak.

---

I have really nothing to contribute. I just saw the greatest football game this year.
Congratulations Holland on a well played game. I just loved seing the dirty Italians getting their World Champion behinds kicked around for 90 minutes. :smash: :2thumbsup:

If you guys are on the ball on the missing letters thing, I am not the one you are looking for. I am not mafia and I am not the detective.
Since the pever thing is obviously a fake... I'll unvote: Kage, vote: pever
There is a slight possibility that he could be mafia. A wise mafia player, the one behind the Godfather versions of this game, once said; If you catch someone in a lie, always lynch.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Sigurd Fafnesbane

I have really nothing to contribute. I just saw the greatest football game this year.
Congratulations Holland on a well played game. I just loved seing the dirty Italians getting their World Champion behinds kicked around for 90 minutes. :smash: :2thumbsup:

---

The last time Sigurd said he was busy because of a football game, he was really lurking as mafia... :yes:

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by Privateerkev

The last time Sigurd said he was busy because of a football game, he was really lurking as mafia... :yes:

---

Correction: it was a hockey game.

Quote:

---

Originally Posted by FactionHeir

This makes it S A E N I S
in order of appearance.

[edit]
Of those whose names fulfill all letters:

Sigurd Fafnesbane
|Sith|R|AntiWarmanCake88

Though Warman only has 1 S, so it suggests its only Sigurd.

unvote: Sasaki, vote: Sigurd
Speak.

---

While I am intrigued by the possibility of some kind of cypher in the write-ups, I think you're way off base on this one. The missing letters could very well be the cypher, but they could also just be misspellings. GH is a good writer, but he makes as many spelling and grammar errors as the rest of us. Unless he was ungodly careful, some of the letters you have pulled out may be wrong. Even if they are all right, your reason for voting Sasaki and then Sigurd is what, exactly? Similar letters in their names? I'm sorry, but that seems way, way too obscure a clue for GH. If he was going to put a real twist or cyper in this game, it would be something that would pop out at you when you finally noticed it. This just isn't doing it. If the letters really are a clue, they are far more likely to be in the form of a substitution cypher than an anagram.