Sorceror 17er Game Thread

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Originally Posted by Dobby

the tldr of what i wanted to say was

yeah i wrote a post reasoninng around those exact same "if"s

but when it comes to Raskol

It's saturday, he's a euro, its 5am rn and before that day was pretty much dead.Don't make activity reads tbh.


I also think it's interesting that you guys are presenting rask as a f3 candidate because in my head hes just been the most logical nk last night even but definitely tonight. Sleep i feel is less locked in than rask, but maybe thats just me being too nice? i dont really want to bother with rask until f3 anyway, there are just too many in the poe and too few clears, and rask is one of those


and like, rask was katzes first lock so he shouldnt be alive in like, many worlds. If cuth dies twon though rask should DEIFNITELY be the nk unless im missings omeontinhg

like if im going to go with my interpretation of gamestate and try to mash everyonees thoguths together this would be the list

top town

rask
sleep
hk
dobby
katze
cape/cuth

top scum


and i was taking for granted that was the order people would get yoinked in but maybe im higher on that list than i gave myself cred for idk.

and i definitely wouldnt put BOTH rask and sleep in the f3 lol? that assumes you and me are the coming 2 night kills? i mean, with my amount of posting despite having a "relaxed" apporach to the game sure but i kinda look forward to being in my first f3 as town so yeah kinda torn lol.




true i prolly outdumbed myself with the reasoning around that

if katzes dies and is town we're in a situation where either we kill Cuth (that was scumread by dead benneh and rask) OR cape (which was katzes pet read) and we wouldnt have much to go on other than katze actually being town and believing in her reads, which benneh also did, so yeah no fun situation


yeah thats correct

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yeah I'm assuming Rask isn't a NK. I think you've been obvs town and should die vv soon. I think I either die or am the patsy in F3. Cuth can make F3 if he's not chopped, so can sleep. I can see a sleep NK but I think you go first.

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Originally Posted by katze

vote: katze

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vote: katze
always, and I mean always, oblige the self-voter.

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Originally Posted by Dobby

i feel like rask has been coming in and when he plays he plays a lot? maybe that was just my impressions for being around when he was active yesterday but not sure id say hes inavctive. benneh kinda was inactive yesterday otoh, felt like he was just waiting for yoink to happen, pushed cuth a little but rask was the one PUSHING cuth

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yeah, when rask is here he's playing. I know he's Lichtenstein, I know it's early early morning. I mostly am talking about him b/c I want him here to bounce thoughts off of.... and to press him on his read of me.

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Originally Posted by katze

this list is kinda sticking with me

gth it doesnt come from a place with TMI but like

exactly the center is still alive and if he's a wolf then the bottom of his list is still all villagers + ladd so meh

probably can't ride the "too wack to be a wolf" when it's still effective at agenda just in a roundabout way

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it has the proper "I am the middle of the road wolf" wolf placement doesn't it.

meh

I am having a bed time. I'll try to check in early in the morning but most likely won't be back till about 2ish hours before EOD. I leave home 8 hours before, it's a 2 hour drive, then 2 hours there, then 2 hours back home. Cutting it close but at least I don't have to make dinner tomorrow.

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Originally Posted by Dobby

I don't think meta is ever going to be a way to clear me and I really mean it. I genuinely can't tel you what would be clearing for me in any game in isolation except for that I just fight it with my everything and sometimes get there sometimes not.


And i think the issue this game atp is that the last wolf is in katze/cape/cuth and we can kill 2 but the third is in f3 which is an issue

And the way you're approach this point of the game as well as some bits honestly makes me consider you over the others. Youre like slowly planting seeds to include more ppl in the poe and the way you're approaching a cuth yeet and saying you have tinfoil or whatever to like stall until th point where you're in a probable f3 is just, good wolfplay and enables you to win at that stage. It's kinda how one would have to play it as wolf at this stage and you're doing exactly that so if I go with gut i 100% vote you. I don't think I'll vote cape today at all. Might go cuth but I want rask to post some as well but idk how much that'd affect my vote tbqh

And like, whenever I try to present a read or thoughts recently you've kinda shut it down pretty resolutely which makes it tougher to just actively share stuff and make cases and that's just also not towny at all.

Main issue is that it's still a super busy weekend for me, good thing nobody is posting I guess, but not really.

I'm just gonna do what I believe in for now vote: katze

If it's 2 out of 3 it's prolly katze cuth in some order for me

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I really don't know why you don't go me, like I really wanted to do something more today but I have actually been a bit out and about today. It's kinda gonna be mobile all day tomorrow so playing with that restrictions is gonna be fun. Me going over is no biggie to me since I really don't know if I'm on the right path as wolf is obviously pretty hidden here. Like it wasn't Mont and I had a feeling it was not but nobody was really budging. If mafia is Rask that might explain why monster expressed frustration over them in the thread but then we all just decide to give this a pass and call Rask town so like, whatever

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Originally Posted by katze

the fact you're (or anyone) clearing cape over cuth is legitimately baffling to me and the fact that he's my top wolfread and your trajectory is "take cape to f3" is imo awful

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It's kinda depressing that I agree with this and that I have took this game more chill then others and can very easily obvtown sometimes, but I also thrive in places easy to navigate. ISOs only work for like 120? Posts

I'm trying to figure out what content actually flatters me this game and legitimately I struggle with this. I'm not locked on the katze vote. I think they might be village tunneling me since I've been underwhelming as shit. Thing is I just don't get Dobby trying to keep me alive here are they wolf? They want an easy final 3? There are a lot of tinfoils in my head right now and I don't feel like solving them as bad as that sounds because I'm mostly just stumped.

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Originally Posted by Sleep

trying to bring my brain back into the game without context at that katze post feels tonally scummy which is a dumb way to analyze a wallpost but w/e

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I find your comment on the wall post thing to be interesting, like do you find all wall posts to come off as scummy? I don't think that is true as your wall post felt like 100% town to me. Granted katze's wallposts today have given mixed signals to me.

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Originally Posted by Dobby

2 more dumb thoughts on why benneh died over raskolnikov


rask pushed cuth super hard, benneh pushed cuth pretty hard

there wasa little tinfoil on benneh expressed (or maybe just from me) in thread so that couldve potentially been taken advantage of by wolf


rask not dying could be because the woof wants cuth to keep being hard pushed by someone (although benneh did it too he wasnt as passionate about it as rask was)

and theres also the viewpoint where, if rask does die, reading into "why did rask die over benneh" would be 500 red fat arrows pointing at cuth


but that could also be done to get a free kill on cuth


but having cuth in f3 is a cool thing for wolves if cuth is town because ending the game without cuth dying is like... kinda lol








and yes to clarify my issue with today because i dont think i have worded it out (im bolding because i think reading this post will be awful if anyone even tries it and this might improve readability but i think i have actually good thoughts here)



READ THIS PART IF UR GONNA READ ANYTHING pls


I was very set on Cuth or Katze yoink for today, and Katze is hard shielding Cuth now. Meaning if I'm going to trust Katze as town or potential town, I need to find someone outside of those two. That'd probably be Cape. But katze and Cuth feel way higher on my priority list. And it's a perfect scenario for wolf katze to try and get to endstages of the game with. It's not as beneficial for anyone else.

So if Katze is actually town, the Cuth read is real. If Cuth is town, Katzes read on Cuth could be fake, but Katze can also go back to saying "I was wrong sorry" and it won't get us any closer to solving Katze, and then we either yoink katze or we go someone else and BAM f3 where anything can happen.

So like, any logical thoughts i might have just tell me Katze is the best yeet, but looking at the above, another yoink chain that doesn't make the game impossible COULD be Cape -> Katze and then f3 with Cuth +2 (probably HK and me or Sleep unless someone wants to keep the rask tinfoil alive)


That would mean we leave Cuth til f3. But if Cape is town, we HAVE to kill katze after for any of it to make sense according to the above, and uh, sure that is fine but awful to drag the game out


that was more than 2 thoughts

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1) I literally have also defended Cuth, same day too.
2) I don't really super follow this given that fact

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Originally Posted by katze

this game is annoying because if i were mafia my path to victory would be shutting up and letting you kill cuth today and im being scumread for it and i kind of want to say "fuck it just kill cuth" but if i do that then i feel like i'd get scumread even more for it

yes this is a self conscious post

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I am way easier to push today then Cuth, there is no reason for scum!you not to go me

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Originally Posted by Cape90

I'm trying to figure out what content actually flatters me this game and legitimately I struggle with this. I'm not locked on the katze vote. I think they might be village tunneling me since I've been underwhelming as shit. Thing is I just don't get Dobby trying to keep me alive here are they wolf? They want an easy final 3? There are a lot of tinfoils in my head right now and I don't feel like solving them as bad as that sounds because I'm mostly just stumped.

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Im voting you right now lol

And i can see jagzes sus eon u makes sense in some ways



Both you and kat want to die though so rats sasd

In one way letting it get to f3 is easier tbh
Gnb for real now

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Originally Posted by hollowkatt

Sure, I can talk about that for a while.

I've been town reading katze for most of the game and do think the meta read that I dropped is still pretty valid. But in the interest of doing my due diligence I went back through the votes in the run-up to EOD1.

D1 is the only day when a wolf really got wagoned, pressured, and then eliminated. The D2 wolf was a bomb and the D3 wolf was from a bomb as well. So D1 is really the best associatives day that we have available to us. It's also the day when the most groundwork is being laid and people have, generally speaking, the flimsiest reasons for reads just because there's less to work with.

That being said the large post you quoted (fuck this site for multiquotes btw) clearly starts out with a "what if" situation. I wrote that post assuming everyone on the Ladd wagon was pure, and worked the game from that angle, which lead me to Cape/Katze as the last people where the wolf could be hiding.

I cleared Monte and Cuth by virtue of how they arrived at the Ladd wagon, where they were before hand, and thinking about why/how a partner would bus their valuable PR (yes I think even N3 sorcerer has value) compared to any of the goons (monstr tbh would have been a great bus target there).

Then when I was doing my re-read of D1 looking at what Ladd had posted I came across the post where Ladd tells Katze to run EOD and wondered how that spewed Katze. I concluded that it could be a bad look.

After removing the Ladd wagon from possible wolf-pack members it was down to me, you, neb, katze, cape. Obvs I remove myself. Neb was obvs town. I got to a town read on you when we were talking during D2 when you were pushing me. You weren't posting like you knew my alignment so I went with the assumption that you were legit solving me, not pushing me to get a mischop.

That would literally leave Katze and Cape and that I could find reasons to town read both of them.

Katze via meta in terms of their wolf game being holistically different than what I've seen here, and Cape b/c he does have some good thoughts and good posts.

I decided to try voting Katze to see what anyone else would say or think about that, whether or not it would start a wagon or if I would get push back. Unfortunately that post was largely ignored until you brought it up now.

When I didn't get any traction on Katze I decided that maybe I was seeing things that aren't there, and that maybe clearing the entire ladd wagon wasn't a smart idea, so I went back eventually to monte for the chop. Do regret that chop.

Anyways, I want to believe in my meta read on katze and I want to believe they're playing in a way that makes it very hard for katze wolf to win.
I want to believe in my read on Cape where he functionally vanishes when he's not being pressured or suspected and only pops back up to really get involved when he's carrying a few votes.

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I just want to address I haven't done this consciously and I think day 2 was my most active day and I was not getting pressured.

Also I wanna point out the red herring here. Wouldn't the behavior of me vanishing thread and popping back up only when I have pressure on me be very scum indicative?

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Originally Posted by katze

to bolded specifically: i felt strongly that the wolf was in cape/monte and said as such, i emphasized that i thought your play around then was very villagery to me

and yeah i GET that w!me would be happy to bring a tinfoiled v!cuth to f3 but i think (thought? probably doesnt even apply that much anymore due to the sheer amount of tinfoil there, in my eyes w!me would always kill him before f3 tho) he'd prob just get NKed before F3 anyway



im p sure cape wasnt around during EoD?

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I was in a dead zone that EoD

Just wanted to also say in regards to the benneh kill, they could have just killed them over Rask since 1) Benneh just about as widely townread as Rask 2) benneh more active then Rask as Rask would only have bursts in activity at a given time.

Unvote: katze

If this is actually scum I swear.

Page 97 is the towniest thing I have seen in a hot minute

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Originally Posted by katze

this list is kinda sticking with me

gth it doesnt come from a place with TMI but like

exactly the center is still alive and if he's a wolf then the bottom of his list is still all villagers + ladd so meh

probably can't ride the "too wack to be a wolf" when it's still effective at agenda just in a roundabout way

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Like I think this is also a legitimately good analysis on Cuth's read list and this just makes me unsure of where to go. I'm gonna revisit something ;)

Okay you know. From the preview of Rask's posts that I have been seeing, NGL kinda pocketed by the aggressive nature of the posts

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

Dobby: "to be clear im not defending cuth (anymore) but thats mainly or only because or bennehs case and 0% because of rasks stuff, if anything rasks stuff make me feel better about cuth being town"

https://www.mafiauniverse.com/forums...ine=1644229047

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I have literally no idea what this is supposed to mean. 🤣

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

Beside, it's not the same thing. I am definatly trying to explain why he is/could be a wolf. He was voting me out D1 without much of a reason (outside sussing and parking Ender for a good chunck of the day. u can look for my posts about Ender fwiw. I know it's pain since we can ISO only the most recent 100 posts but hey, u can still do it).
He was voting me out because he thought I was wrong (yeah he said I was looking opportunisticly looking for a towny ML... when I had barely posted D1 because I had friendos that week end at home). That's not evaluating my alignment.

Beside, from where this confidence comes from (that I am misreading villagers and going for ML)? Look again his post to Ender saying he is town for raisins despite his crap reads, and compare his treatment of Ender's slot, compared to mine (I quoted it in the last couple of pages). Look again why he turnarounded finally saying "Rask is fine"... etc

Is it really the same thing? I don't think so.

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I feel like this context is important for what I am about to read and probably not fully digest

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Originally Posted by Dobby

Im voting you right now lol

And i can see jagzes sus eon u makes sense in some ways



Both you and kat want to die though so rats sasd

In one way letting it get to f3 is easier tbh
Gnb for real now

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Yeah I saw that later on as I was slowly reading more

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Originally Posted by Dobby

dont you mean kill cuth -> kill katze?

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Dobby you said this earlier, what made you reconsider?

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

I hate this game tbh: because of Benneh's post, I am rereading EOD1 to check cuth's positionning, and I read Dobby's readlist gut clearing all flipped scums.

"monstrbro - town."

"EnderWiggin - I've had some big doubts on this slot because a lot of thought patterns have felt feigned (i translated the word from swedish sorry if its a dumb word that doesnt make sense) but the more i think about it i feel like it's probably just from a town mindset and if i go with gut this is just town yes."

"Ladd - I've been flipflopping on ladd, this post just had way more than id expect at that point, but maybe its just the ladd way of pumping out reads and then tweaking. His later posts just feel like they have the enthusiasm and "fire" that town ladd has, especially the more (for ladd) wordy ones, it's also a bit relaxed which is nice to see. Gut says town."

anyone has meta on wolf!Dobby? (don't say 1610 pls)

back to reading cuth's EOD :coffee:

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I'm just wondering who would actually make this list as mafia LOL

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

This post comes after what could be read as TMI reads on Newcomb and Cape.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

But rn I am not seeing how Cuth goes from soft defending goon!Ender to bus sorcerer!Ladd.

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Nah actually I see how he could have (w!Cuth sees that 1. Monstr is about to get banned and is LHF that isn't endgaming anyway 2. sees that Ender is not ending game too re the amount of heat he got D1 3. panicks at EOD when he sees the CFD on Ladd and thinks bussing hard here is the only path to victory). A possibility to me rn, nothing definitive though.

Moving on. :anothercoffee:

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I think if I was Cuth at this moment and posted that, I would have voted Wiggin...

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

COntext





Compare this:



to this:



last post feels like a preemptive back up reasonning to vote me out (with unfakable in-depht thinking lmao) because he may have felt something ugly could happen to him. dunno

moving on (rn I am still at Monty > above them all fwiw. I am just trying to see if "Cuth is a wolf" is an idea that matches what happened at EOD1, because I had the thought too N1 and Benneh's post was convincing. might as well test it because I don't want us to railroad Monty being lazy)

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But like, wouldn't preemptive reasoning that's unfakable, in depth thinking be... You know... Unfakable? Can mafia not fake stuff? If you are mafia there, you are clearly disingenuous with your reads, therefore you can never really fully believe them right?

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Originally Posted by Raskolnikov

I secretly hope Cuth is town tbh (I parked on Ender before going Cuth > ladd D1), because otherwise my LHF status will take a serious hit and I will have to shorten my posts and slack even harder as town. which is out of my range tbh. (u can switch Cuth for Monty, it works too)

apologies for this post btw. (I just had an ego pooping watching at the D1 VCs)

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Okay those are kinda towny votes even if Cuth is town.

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

oh i forgot about this post

i have a hard time reading monstr because his playstyle as a wolf is self-aware in a way distinct from a lot of people, and it's not just like being able to post like a villager would but genuinely intuitively generating stuff that he would think as a villager by maintaining a sort of self-aware distance while wolfing

meaning his wolf posts have a villagery flavor to them that is stronger than a lot of peoples' and it's similar enough to mine that i have a hard time ever trusting how i read it

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This post man...

This looks w/w tbh

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Originally Posted by Cuthillius

ok that's

weird

but alright

20 seconds because there's the post cooldown and he voted and then voted someone else within that window before you posted

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This feels oddly, I don't know how to put it, picky

Benneh saying I should go to final 3, like I kinda just don't get why I am just flat out town to some of y'all.

Rask really making me think it could be Cuth but I think Cuth has also things that don't look TMI.

Sleep also mentioned this thing about spending like 5 months or something looking at Cuth's wolf meta or something? That literally gone nowhere, they didn't comment on it since and I would like to knowze why and could they elaborate.

Getting tired soz, be here probs mobiling tomorrow

i completely forgot this game existed oops