Sorceror 17er Game Thread

[Dobby]

Dobby: Monty - Cuth - katze - Cape

katze: Cape - Monty - Dobby - ? (not sure who next person would be, maybe cuth or sleep?


Benneh: Cuth - Monty - Cape - katze ?


Raskolnikov: Cuth - Monty - Dobby - ?


Hollowkatt: Monty - Cuth - Cape (?) - ?


Monty: katze - Cuth - Dobby - Sleep?


-----


Cape90: Monty - Rask? (goes back to saying "rask is probably town, so i can't identify a preferred poe from cape's post)


Cuth: Monty - dobby?katze?sleep?


Sleep: Monty - katze/cuth? - ?





Cuth/Cape/Sleep I can't identify clear thoughts on what their PoE is, kinda seems like they're just content with Monty and game ends after that? Some names are mentioned but followed by "prolly just town" ish posts.





My point with doing this is that... We have Monty/Cape/Cuth/katze as preferred nr 1 yeet across the board. That's 4 names. I think other than katze being cleared by someone (idr who) we have a pretty super duper wide poe. I'm definitely included in that poe as well. That's 5 names.


We kinda need to cover all or at least bases for if monty isn't the yeet. Prolly not going to do that all-in today, but I think it's important to note that we can't just get into a f7/f5 where 5 people have 5 preferred yeets, that's suck poopbutt. I'm not sure how we're going to find the clears tho but we should like, spend our time trying to agree on stuff

[Raskolnikov]

so why does he criticise cuth for doing just that

to be clear im not defending cuth (anymore) but thats mainly or only because or bennehs case and 0% because of rasks stuff, if anything rasks stuff make me feel better about cuth being town.


I mean if im going to keep presenting gut reads, yeah gut read now says cuth w but i still see monty w over cuth.



im sheping the wise dead townies and so shoul dyou

I just tryed again. You can stare at us all you want, it's not the same thing.

[Dobby]

no. I tryed to show how partnery he have been with Ender, and why he would have to bus Ladd here to have a chance with how the wolves were having an hard time at EOD1 (sussed, banned, leading VC, afk).

Yeah I see that part of it but i also think i've read arguments (just now when i looked through a ton of posts but idr from who) about why those exact same posts mean cuth isnt teamed with ender so yeah, it's hard to just pick a side and hope it's correct based on that specifically.

I think he is villa by vertue of lacking self-awareness kinda. I think he has derped convincingly too earlier (thinking Winston and me were the same person for instance).

my POE rn: Cuth > Monty. You and him are next if the game isn't over by then I guess.

cool then i kinda got it right

[hollowkatt]

i was doing something and then noted this, ill keep doing that something but i wanted to get this out in a separate post


quoting relevant part of the readslist post from katze



That's pretty quickly followed by this post when i ask if im in her poe





This shift doesn't.... make sense. If it's just a reaction that kat takes two steps back in response to me pushing back/asking why im in poe that leads to the shift it... doesn't make sense for katze, i think? And if it's not as a reaction to my reaction, i still don't understand what would lead to that? I'm not saying it's scummy im just saying it exists and im not sure why

legit and valid and is basically the biggest thing that would make me question my read on katze

[hollowkatt]

i mightve very well said clearing monty at some point earlier but definitely didnt mean that - i am just still arguing against yoinking cuth over monty. I think atp (even though i flipflop a lot) cuth is also my second preferred yoink but cuth/kat/cape keep contesting eachother for that spot.


the solidarity thing i understand, i just cant shake off the feeling we'll have a new newcomb situation tongiht and thats why i seem to be so passionate about this thing, because i think i am

Yeah, Monte dies today. I'll end there

[Raskolnikov]

Yeah I see that part of it but i also think i've read arguments (just now when i looked through a ton of posts but idr from who) about why those exact same posts mean cuth isnt teamed with ender so yeah, it's hard to just pick a side and hope it's correct based on that specifically.




cool then i kinda got it right

it's OK, you are not up to my level :wowee:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

sorry, I am a clown

gtg again, sell me on Monty has more partner equity to the flipped wolfs than Cuth in the meantime (if u have time I mean :p)

[Dobby]

I disagree lol. Maybe a language thing (I can read English fairly well, writing it is another thing, and I too lazy to increase my level to finer stages where I could write cases filled with fancy words tbh), but my goal is to demonstrate why cuth being a wolf is a definative possibility. Monty is too but for reasons which can be dismissed by a simple TWTBAW (his unvote, his opening post, etc...).

Sell him to me I guess.

im prolly worse than you at english (it doesnt have relevance to the post at all, i legit didnt know you werent a native speaker until this game i think)

i think nobody disagrees except for maybe katze that cuth could be wolf atp?



i dont see the monty twtbaw perspective - he isnt making those plays with the assumption that vest will kill one teammate the day after, and then another teammate the day after that. If ladd lives there theres always a chance of ladd surviving another day, it wasnt that clear of a wagon, yoinking any of the counterwagons wouldve been a realistic scenario, and then game doesnt look like it does today.

And one thing that should weigh in heavily is that zack, sunbae, newcomb and prolly more ppl just had monty at the bottom or bottom-adjacent in their lists.



I don't think i care that much if cuth would be the yeet at this point but i think monty just ends the game and itd be nice to not play for 3 more days and getting into the paranoia stage of the game where anything can happen (including monty not dying, seen weirder things happen)

[hollowkatt]

dont you mean kill cuth -> kill katze?

if that's F3 might as well prevote Cape tbh

[Dobby]

it's OK, you are not up to my level :wowee:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

sorry, I am a clown

gtg again, sell me on Monty has more partner equity to the flipped wolfs than Cuth in the meantime (if u have time I mean :p)

i also wrote a wall:y post where i look at ALL monty interactions with the flipped wolves - vs ender it was pretty much monty pushing ender but straight up one-way communication. ladd put monty in his d1 list of 5 names and posting a list with only townies is also not-standard


id find that post (it was prolly more than one) but search function bad etc.

[Dobby]

i think i always go katze before cape tbh

[Dobby]

@raskolnikov heres the post, im removing quote tags so quotes in the post dont disappear, there was a part one



So i just ctrl f:ed "mont" in the first dayphase to see if he had written anything, or if anyone else had mentioned him




this is the early ladd readlist (one of his first non rvs posts) that i sussed him because of, it would make sense to include one wolf :P Also considering the later posts about monty its kinda weird. It feels like ladd wants this list to look real? But this is also the only post from monty before that ladd post




This might be the most interesting post of the flipped woofs/monty stuff?






like, if theyre teamed, ladd is going for it pretty hard tbh

monty comes into thread and posts a semi jokey vote on monstr, is it just me or does it look like w/w action?






there are waaaaall catchup posts like this, he is kinda pushing ender a bit, but mentions in the other direction are few/non-existent.


and okay this is (i think) the only "response" or mention of monty (and its got ladd + monstr) from ender's posts and im not sure its relevant but i want it to be

ladd asks about monty here, kinda leaves it up to others to help him make an opinion on him. Not sure if it says anything, i might just be seeing what i want to see rn.



tldr and main conclusions:

the monstr interaction really looks like it could be w/w

on top of that, ladd gave monty a townread early in the first quoted post here, and proceeded to... this sentence




this just.. doesn't make sense? paraphrased the way i read it it says "people who know him well thought he was wolf so i read his previous games and he is a good wolf, so i dont see why you would wolfread him"

like

if you see someone is a good wolf, and people who know them well wolfread them

how does that land in a townread from you, and a shield?



I mean, it mostly looks bad for ladd (lol), but if i turn it around i think yes it can be to put a shield up on a townie that a lot of people push
but it could definitely also be about a teammate that he shields and has a read that he wants cred for when they get ml'ed

and combined with the early readslist post i think

it's just monty lol


part 1 was this

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

what if:



I guess the big question of the day is this: was there a wolf on Ladd and given their role and given the way the wagon flashed out of nowhere I'm inclined to think wolves were trying to save Ladd more so than gain credit from being on his wagon. Obvs they could not be flashy about saving him b/c it would out them.

But here's a thing:
This is the vote count from 18 minutes before EOD:


Notice a complete and utter lack of Ladd wagon other than the lone Winston vote.
Here we have one wolf on newcomb, one wolf on sleep, and one wolf on raskol. I think none of those are buses.

Then we have the next count:


It's 12 minutes later and the Cuth wagon has vanished. Ladd still at 1 vote, Cuth has moved to Winston, the Raskol wagon has also dropped a voter.

One minute to go:


6 wagons with 2 votes each. At this point there is no telling who is going to go over. Nobody can claim any kind of credit from Ladd at this point as there's no real push other than from winston to get people voting for Ladd. He's the only one stumping for the chop here.

Contrast with the final vote count:


I think this shows Raskol and Sleep are town. If they are goons they are both bused to save Ladd here. I say this because again there was not a huge impetus to save Ladd. His wagon grew organically and votes were flying pretty quickly in the last minute or so of the game day.

I think it also shows that there was not a coordinated bus effort on Ladd. Kinda want to clear his whole wagon which is why I posted the first "what if" at the top.
I want to add Cuth to the "can't be a wolf here" bucket b/c why does he vote his PR on the back of Winston asking for Ladd votes when Cuth was voting Winston moments before he votes Ladd? It doesn't add up to me. I know Cuth is an insanely good player as both alignments but still, there's literally zero reasons to move to Ladd here as wolf goon when you can just stay on Raskol, not to mention moving off of Raskol puts the Cuth wagon clearly in the lead by 2 votes which is quite a bit to overcome in the last couple minutes of a game day. It did happen so it's not impossible but still, unlikely to me that Cuth is a wolf.

Then there is the monte question. I said earlier he had votes on each of the dead wolves on D1 and ended his day on the Ladd wagon.
Before that though he is pretty much parked on Raskol in the run up to the end of the day. Like Cuth what is the impetus to move to Ladd, what does wolf?Monte gain from doing that. I argue it's the same thing with Cuth. Monte wasn't highly suspected during D1, there was no gamestate reason for Monte to reach for credit like this. He also doesn't make much noise in terms of trying to capitalize on said credit.

I would argue Monte is town for the same reasons here.

So Rask, Sleep, Cuth, Monte town

Leaving
HK
Dobby
Neb
Katze
Cape

Remove myself, remove Dobby, remove Neb. Leaves Katze and Cape.

This is where I get stuck tbh. I can find reasonable reasons to town read both of them.

vote: katze

gonna try this on for a while and see how it feels.

Hey i was going to do this but now someone else did pog


Looking at those vc's I think yes Rask is never wolf, cuth with the first vote on ladd during that eod (other that winston's that i dont count here) to make him a legit wagon when people sussed him already looks good for him.

If a wolf places a vote on ladd here it's - let's look at it.

Rask's vote was within seconds from Monty's vote and both were at :00. Rask's vote can pretty certainly be seen as self-pres. He could've placed a vote that looked good for the mafia sorcerer, but didn't, he voted him.

Those two votes took ladd from 2 votes to 4 votes, and suddenly he went from being one of many wagons, to top one.

BUUUUUUUUUUUUT

There's this fuckin post

Let me quote it as well.

It's at :01. Probably just a few seconds too late from having been a valid unvote.

Unvote

I don't know how it can look worse than this for someone tbh



(im splitting my post into 2 because its about 2 semi different things)

Vote: Monty

[Dobby]

fuck it still didnt include the quoted posts which makes it unreadable, posting it again


So i just ctrl f:ed "mont" in the first dayphase to see if he had written anything, or if anyone else had mentioned him

i'll help benneh and then go afk for the next 24ish hours

v
mont
benneh
ladd

sleep

i don't like ender's way of posting (almost all of his posts are answer to other quotes and in last page he answered newcomb's post which was the last one and then went back to answer cuth's whose post was before and gave me "posting just to post" vibes). Both of these things are >rand w ime

for context:





i'll yolo a sunbae w read (you'll do amazing in champs tho! genuinely)

this is the early ladd readlist (one of his first non rvs posts) that i sussed him because of, it would make sense to include one wolf :P Also considering the later posts about monty its kinda weird. It feels like ladd wants this list to look real? But this is also the only post from monty before that ladd post

Gotta say the Mafia stalker can't expect to get much action in this setup. Like, the only thing it can track is the town sorceror, and there's no stopping the town sorceror's last action on N2 without pushing them D2, and there's little point to that. Watching the target of a sorceror is even more useless, since there's never going to be a strategy in pushing a compulsive suicide bomber.

I'm ready for my vesting.

This might be the most interesting post of the flipped woofs/monty stuff?

i saw that post and your monty push

you don't really push lhf like you did monty as a villager ime, in fact I think 1 of yours (and visor actually) biggest villa tells is that you tend to see the "what if they are a vilager angle" of the so called easy mislunches, like you are doing with cape for example (regardless of whether or not he is a villager)

you going after monty was spooky, then I saw the other orgers thought he was a wolf too so maybe I was missing some meta but from a quick skim of 2 of his games he seems like a perfectly competent wolf so i dont realy see whats up

but i guess I overstimated how much you believe both your monty wolf read on yrou stuff wrt cuth



yougotus.gif

@Winston Hughes how much of the thread had you read when you made this post?



couple of zack's post overnight actually gave me the FEAR

1) calling cuth out for asking too many questions felt level 0

2) the monty push


i actually really liked some of cuth stuff overnight which is incredible cause i usually don't even get what they are saying



this was a real nice thought

like, if theyre teamed, ladd is going for it pretty hard tbh

monty comes into thread and posts a semi jokey vote on monstr, is it just me or does it look like w/w action?

ladd
newcomb
montmorency

all of these are good targets

Voting Newcomb is a dumb idea katze. Vote Ender instead.

there are waaaaall catchup posts like this, he is kinda pushing ender a bit, but mentions in the other direction are few/non-existent.


and okay this is (i think) the only "response" or mention of monty (and its got ladd + monstr) from ender's posts and im not sure its relevant but i want it to be

ladd asks about monty here, kinda leaves it up to others to help him make an opinion on him. Not sure if it says anything, i might just be seeing what i want to see rn.



tldr and main conclusions:

the monstr interaction really looks like it could be w/w

on top of that, ladd gave monty a townread early in the first quoted post here, and proceeded to... this sentence

you going after monty was spooky, then I saw the other orgers thought he was a wolf too so maybe I was missing some meta but from a quick skim of 2 of his games he seems like a perfectly competent wolf so i dont realy see whats up

this just.. doesn't make sense? paraphrased the way i read it it says "people who know him well thought he was wolf so i read his previous games and he is a good wolf, so i dont see why you would wolfread him"

like

if you see someone is a good wolf, and people who know them well wolfread them

how does that land in a townread from you, and a shield?



I mean, it mostly looks bad for ladd (lol), but if i turn it around i think yes it can be to put a shield up on a townie that a lot of people push
but it could definitely also be about a teammate that he shields and has a read that he wants cred for when they get ml'ed

and combined with the early readslist post i think

it's just monty lol

[Raskolnikov]

well yeah, it could be Monty too. Just make sure if/when he flips villa and one of Benneh/me is dead, you turbo Cuth.

[Raskolnikov]

@HK: I saw your posts, tx :D

I have a coffee wolf tell? or is it just a general (dumb) tell you use to j/poke around?

[Dobby]

well yeah, it could be Monty too. Just make sure if/when he flips villa and one of Benneh/me is dead, you turbo Cuth.

Yeah it'll take a lot for me to not go cuth there but I don't want to go near town leader role and try to bruteforce it, I'd rather try that with monty and then go sorry I'm bad at mafia someone else take the lead

I just want to be the one fluffposting and reacting to every post in the game and top posting for once, I don't think I've ever ended up as top poster so that's my secret goal for this game

/s for legal reasons


Or is it

[Raskolnikov]

Dobby: "to be clear im not defending cuth (anymore) but thats mainly or only because or bennehs case and 0% because of rasks stuff, if anything rasks stuff make me feel better about cuth being town"

[Dobby]

Dobby: "to be clear im not defending cuth (anymore) but thats mainly or only because or bennehs case and 0% because of rasks stuff, if anything rasks stuff make me feel better about cuth being town"

Rekt tbh

(You did play some part in it but you said I was bad at zhitposting so you won't get cred)

[Raskolnikov]

why I would go Cuth over Monty today? Because Monty feels too ez

[Raskolnikov]

also cape forgetting rask prob means they aren't w/w?

Rask is Winston, one of my top wolves...

yeah?

@Dobby (rofl)

[Cape90]

lol dont go rask

Monty/katze/Cuth

final answer

[Dobby]

@Dobby (rofl)

That's kind of cute

[Dobby]

lol dont go rask

Monty/katze/Cuth

final answer

How did kat end up there? Hasn't that push from kat been a 9neway thing? That was my impression of it but I might be misremembering

[Cuthillius]

lol

I don't think I'm going to defend myself today

if the game's still going tomorrow then sure i can write words but

[Cuthillius]

more from a lack of time than a lack of respect tbc

[katze]

i was doing something and then noted this, ill keep doing that something but i wanted to get this out in a separate post


quoting relevant part of the readslist post from katze



That's pretty quickly followed by this post when i ask if im in her poe





This shift doesn't.... make sense. If it's just a reaction that kat takes two steps back in response to me pushing back/asking why im in poe that leads to the shift it... doesn't make sense for katze, i think? And if it's not as a reaction to my reaction, i still don't understand what would lead to that? I'm not saying it's scummy im just saying it exists and im not sure why

the second half of the 'legacy' post was p rushed and your reply reminded me that i had more reason to townread you than i wrote

but also i'm emphasizing again that i think the wolf is just in cape/monty

like fr

im vaguely caught up and see people are trying to throw out cuth instead and like

what

[hollowkatt]

@HK: I saw your posts, tx :D

I have a coffee wolf tell? or is it just a general (dumb) tell you use to j/poke around?

coffee tell is a universal wolf tell :D
comes from MU (I think)
Mostly I'm joking but if F3 is legit me, you, and someone else I'm gonna look long and hard at you

[Dobby]

the second half of the 'legacy' post was p rushed and your reply reminded me that i had more reason to townread you than i wrote

but also i'm emphasizing again that i think the wolf is just in cape/monty

like fr

im vaguely caught up and see people are trying to throw out cuth instead and like

what

I was more questioning you taking out cuth from your clears tbh in that fashion, rather than your read on me.

I feel better about cape today but I'll save the cuthcapekat stuff til it's actually needed to be looked into

[hollowkatt]

so today we chop monte. If the game doesn't end we look very closely at cuth and cape.
I think Rask, Katze, and Dobby have all written posts/had perspectives that are incredibly difficult to fake as a wolf.

I won't discount their skills here because all three are incredibly accomplished, but I just don't see the wolf being there.

That basically leaves me and neb and obvs I'm not advocating myself as the wolf and if neb is the wolf wtf kind of range does he have. (don't answer that I have enough paranoia in late games already)

[Dobby]

so today we chop monte. If the game doesn't end we look very closely at cuth and cape.
I think Rask, Katze, and Dobby have all written posts/had perspectives that are incredibly difficult to fake as a wolf.

I won't discount their skills here because all three are incredibly accomplished, but I just don't see the wolf being there.

That basically leaves me and neb and obvs I'm not advocating myself as the wolf and if neb is the wolf wtf kind of range does he have. (don't answer that I have enough paranoia in late games already)

I feel like benneh is cleared but im forgetting why he's just considered that, I'm sure it's there somewhere

[katze]

I was more questioning you taking out cuth from your clears tbh in that fashion, rather than your read on me.

wait did i do that

wtf past me LMAO

okay i dont have an answer to that ill assume it was more "hollowkatt should be higher" but

something something grumble grumble "it won't matter because they're all town anyway kill monty"