Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

[Captain Blackadder]

VOTE STEPHEN ASEN

For now at least

[FactionHeir]

I have a feeling Stephen is the vigilante. But that doesn't make him anti town.

I'm also somewhat distrusting of Aggony and wonder why Chimpyang is silent again.

vote abstain

[Beskar]

Page 20's table -


Stephen Asen 11 Beskar, El Diablo, LittleGrizzly, Gregoshi, Reenk Roink, pevergreen, AggonyDuck, Tristan de Castelreng, Beefy187, Captain Blackadder, CountArach

Beskar 4 Stephen Asen, Kagemusha, Death is yonder, atheotes

Sigurd 3 Louis the Fat, KukriKhan, TinCow

TinCow 1 YLC
TosaInu 1 Thermal Mercury
YLC 1 Glenn
Sasaki 1 Yaropolk
Ignoramus 1 Ichigo
AggonyDuck 1 Sasaki Kojir
Yaropolk 1 woad&fangs

Abstain 4 Rhyfelwyr, Ignoramus, FactionHeir, Chimpyang


Argument against Stephen Asen and page 19 for more.

[FactionHeir]

Ignoramus and myself abstained as well.

[pevergreen]

Such a bandwagon
is out of place as there is
no evidence yet.


Reenk-san pointed out my mistake.

I live to serve.

[Andres]

Announcement:

Kagemusha will replace Ibn-Khaldun.

[Chimpyang]

Well nothing suspicious I hope, I have had invisibility turned off so you can monitor when I'm on here.
This one's almost a foregone conclusion - however Aggony gives the impression of someone having to cut his losses when confronted with bad news.

Vote : Abstain for now

[Kagemusha]

Thanks Andres for having me and Hello, fellow Bushi´s. I will go through the thread and then share my views about any suspects that might stick up, with their peculiar behaviour.

[Louis VI the Fat]

Vote: Kagemusha! Sneaky ninja-esque entrance, that. I bet it was you all along...



More seriously. Still very little to go on. But I am eying the bandwagoning...

Unvote: Kagemusha Vote: Sigurd

Awfully quiet - he retreats into a cloud of silence when scummy. Let flow thy words! Like the waters of a waterfall, it is not the flowing stream itself, but the mists from the fall that make the flowers on the banks bloom.
Or, it doesn't matter what anybody says, as long as they speak there is information for us.


Tally:

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Stephen Asen 11 Beskar, El Diablo, LittleGrizzly, Gregoshi, Reenk Roink, pevergreen, AggonyDuck, Tristan de Castelreng, Beefy187, Death is yonder, Captain Blackadder

GeneralHankerchief 2 TinCow, Ichigo
Yaropolk 2 woad&fangs, Sasaki Kojiro

TinCow 1 YLC
Beskar 1 Stephen Asen
TosaInu 1 Thermal Mercury
YLC 1 Glenn
Sigurd 1 Louis VI the Fat

Abstain 3 Rhyfelwyr, Ignoramus, FactionHeir

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Night 1

Hour of the Rat.


Ii Naomasa (Khazaar)
While he was taking off his kimono, he heard a sound on the opposite corner of the room. He unsheeted his wakizashi and slowly walked towards the sound.

He didn’t notice the shady figure behind him, carrying a razor sharp katana.

The shady figure pierced the katana through Ii’s back.

Ii Naomasa had hardly noticed that the sword had pierced through his chest, when the sword struck a second time, decapacitating him.

The killer continued by chopping of both arms and legs of the already dead samurai.

After he had done what he came for, the attacker whiped his blade clean on the kimono of his victim and left the room unnoticed.

Hour of the Rat

Takayama Ukon (spL1tp3r50nal1ty)
The veteran warrior nodded to the samurai who was coming to relieve him.


Without even a nod, Takayama turned his back to the young samurai and walked away.

The poisoned shuriken in his neck ended his life within seconds.

The young samurai walked towards his victim. “It’s not wise to turn your back to your enemy.”

He quickly covered the body with snow and resumed standing guard. It didn't take long before the real replacement arrived. The killer bowed respectfully to the other samurai. “I’m grateful that you finally made it. I’m off for a hot bath and a warm bed. See you tomorrow.”
After this words, he bowed and quickly turned around. The other samurai couldn’t see his face.

Hour of the Ox

Kikuya (Lord Winter) took of her kimono and started to put on her make-up.

“Now, that’s a surprise!” a manly voice said.

Kikuya felt the wakizashi entering her lungs. A hard and well placed kick made her fall on the floor. The man watched her as she was suffocating in her own blood. He bowed towards her to take a good look at her face.

“What a waste,” he said, regret in his voice. The wakizashi in her throat, mercifully ended Kikuya’s young life.

The masked samurai left the scene unnoticed.

Night 2

Hour of the Rat

Fujiwara Ritsu (The Spartan) He was quite happy not to have guard duty that night.

While he was taking out the bottle and looking for a clean cup, he didn’t notice the dark shadow on the opposite wall of the room. With one well placed punch, he broke the young samurai’s neck.

The ninja picked up the bottle of saké and left unnoticed.

Hour of the Rat

Konishi Yukinaga (Iskander III) was standing guard.
Konishi’s thoughts were disrupted by the sound of footsteps in the snow.

“Hey!” a voice said loudly.

Konishi turned towards the sound of the voice and got temporarily blinded by the campfire. That was all the ninja needed to throw a sharp, poisoned throwing knife right through the samurai’s throat.

Hour of the Rat

Uesugi Kenshu (Shinseikhaan)

But for now, he was still alive and he could still enjoy beauty. And so, he decided to go outside, because, contrary to his fellow samurai, he loved the cold, dark nights in the mountains.

While he was walking and enjoying the freezing yet silent cold, he didn’t hear nor see the blade that was being lifted. When it struck down, it seperated Uesugi’s head from his body, ending his life mercifully quick.

The warrior behind him cleaned his sword with the kimono of the fallen Uesugi and carefully left the scene unnoticed.

Hour of the Ox

Watanabe Yumi (Olavi) entered his room. As soon as his head touched the cushion, he slept.

He didn’t notice the figure entering his room. Two strong, dark gloved hands grabbed Watanabe’s throat and broke his larynx. The knife piercing through his right eye, into his brains ended the job very quick.


The dark shade left the room unnoticed.

If not as of yet, within one or two nights a careful reading of the write-ups should yield relevant information. Note that the write-ups above are abridged, for ease of reference.

For my own administration, and for the convience of others, two posts:

Andres' write-ups are not clueless, but there is little to go on. Nevertheless, I believe I am noting some small pattern regarding the killers:

Vigi-Sam Killer

I see parallels between the killings of Lord Winter and 'kkhaan. Both of these appear to be sword killings as of a Samurai in vigilante mode. Both targets are known players with several GR mafias under their belts. Also, both targets often lessen their participation following death.

I could be wrong and this could be a bad-guy doing the killing, but I believe this is one killer and he or she is killing experienced players of known skill but those who do NOT normally feature as early round lightning rods.

Butcher

Khazar's particularly gory death on N1 strikes me as the work of a SK. Both Samurai and Ninja were capable of lots of violence and beheadings were common, but hacking the taget to ribbons is excessive and betokens instability. No such killing occurred on N2.

Ninja

We have more than one of these, but I am not sure that they all were up to speed on day one. I get the suggestion of some being late with their orders and late to the game -- as I was -- so it might be wothwhile to query those who were inactive at first but active now. I fit that profile, so have at me if you wish. ALL of their targets have been relative newcomers or those with very low profiles (save for The Spartan, returning after a long absence). I am not sure it's as random as Tincow suggests -- just prudent targeting early while the big names and frequent posters lynch each other in the early rounds (as we all know happens pretty often).

The ninjas and the traitors are our mafia, likely two separate families. The powers of the pro-town roles remain unknown, but it's possible that some of them can kill at night. There is also the secret role which could be a serial killer.

N1 Deaths:
Khazaar - Killer repeatedly called a "shady figure." Decapitates target and wipes blade on kimono. Likely ninja.
spL1tp3r50nal1ty - Killer repeatedly referred to as a samurai, which would preclude the ninjas. Likely traitor.
Lord Winter - Killer specifically called a samurai, which would preclude the ninjas. Killer first attacked unarmed, then finished with a blade. Likely traitor. Worth nothing that Lord Winter was obviously a geisha, indicating that the town is down a power role right from the start.

N2 Deaths:
The Spartan - Killer specifically referred to as a ninja.
Iskander III - Killer specifically referred to as a ninja.
Shinseikhaan - Killer not referred to as either samurai or ninja, only "warrior." However, the killer decapitated his target and wiped his blade on the kimono. This is very similar to the N1 Khazaar death. Thus, likely the ninja killer of Khazaar.
Olavi - Killer not referred to as either samurai or ninja, only "dark shade." However, the killer first attacked unarmed, then finished with a blade. This is very similar to the N1 Lord Winter death. Thus, likely the traitor killer of Lord Winter.

Thus, we have 5 killers so far, 3 ninjas and 2 traitors. This matches the killing power listed in Andres' rules.

Ninja Larry: N1 - Khazaar, N2 - 'khaan
Ninja Moe: N1 - Did not kill, N2 - The Spartan
Ninja Curly: N1 - Did not kill, N2 - Iskander III

Traitor Dante: N1 - spL1tp3r50nal1ty, N2 - Did not kill
Traitor Randal: N1 - Lord Winter, N2 - Olavi

Two of the ninjas keeping quiet on N1 is not really remarkable. It is a common and intelligent tactic to intentionally refrain from killing. However, the failure of Traitor Dante to kill on N2 is interesting, as there are very few circumstances in which a mafioso will voluntarily not kill after he has started murdering. The usual reasons are (1) to make the town think he just died, (2) he didn't get his orders in on time, and (3) he was blocked. (1) is pointless this early in the game. (2) is unlikely since he was active on N1... usually people who are inactive as mafioso are that way in the beginning, not after they've already gotten involved in the game. That leaves (3). So, my conclusion is Traitor Dante was blocked last night.

Edit: forgot to add FH's useful comment!

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

My view on the killings varies a bit from yours.

My categories:
N1:
Khazaar - Serial Killer
spL1tp3r50nal1ty - Ninja
Lord Winter - Traitor

N2 Deaths:
The Spartan - Ninja
Iskander III - Ninja
Shinseikhaan - Traitor
Olavi - Serial Killer

So from my thinking, the traitor is experienced, the ninjas and serial killer are new players or TWC players.

[Csargo]

Welcome Kage.

Unvote:GH, Vote:Ignoramus

GH is working on something for a PBM someone said. Igno abstained and then challenged me, which makes very little sense. Plus, he posted. I respect the SA wagon soooooo much I can't bare to defile it by jumping on.

Stephen Asen 11 Beskar, El Diablo, LittleGrizzly, Gregoshi, Reenk Roink, pevergreen, AggonyDuck, Tristan de Castelreng, Beefy187, Death is yonder, Captain Blackadder

Yaropolk 2 woad&fangs, Sasaki Kojiro

GeneralHankerchief 1 TinCow
TinCow 1 YLC
Beskar 1 Stephen Asen
TosaInu 1 Thermal Mercury
YLC 1 Glenn
Sigurd 1 Louis VI the Fat
Ignoramus 1 Ichigo

Abstain 3 Rhyfelwyr, Ignoramus, FactionHeir

[FactionHeir]

Louis, no comment on my classification?

[KukriKhan]

vote: Sigurd

Stephen Asen 11 Beskar, El Diablo, LittleGrizzly, Gregoshi, Reenk Roink, pevergreen, AggonyDuck, Tristan de Castelreng, Beefy187, Death is yonder, Captain Blackadder

GeneralHankerchief 1 TinCow,
Yaropolk 2 woad&fangs, Sasaki Kojiro

TinCow 1 YLC
Beskar 1 Stephen Asen
TosaInu 1 Thermal Mercury
YLC 1 Glenn
Sigurd 2 Louis VI the Fat, KukriKhan
Ignoramus 1 Ichigo

Abstain 3 Rhyfelwyr, Ignoramus, FactionHeir

[Beskar]

Just for reference, I leave the gaps in-between names if it is a different number. With the highest number at the top, etc. So for example, if you look at my updated post and Kukrikhan's, you hopefully will see what I mean.

[Yaropolk]

What do you think of stephen asen?

Sasaki - what made you think there is a link between Stephen Asen and AggonyDuck?

As it turns out there was. You've been asked this question twice and didn't answer either time.

Vote: Sasaki

[CountArach]

Alright I'm just going to Vote: Glenn for the moment. Challenging his own cousin and fighting him just seems... strange... It strikes me as somewhat mason-ish to have two relatives in the game. I don't like masons.

Any thoughts on if we would be told if we had relatives in this game?

(Yes I am drawing a long bow, but I'm tired and just finished writing an essay. Give me a break )

[TinCow]

While it is true that GH is managing a major PvP battle in the Throne Room at the moment, a good portion of that battle involves waiting 1-2 days for orders to be submitted. I can see the battle interfering with his posting while he's figuring out the results of a particular combat phase, but after the initial setup (which was completed before this game began) there's still a lot of free time to be had. For this reason, GH should not be let off the hook for his low post count. That said, my GH vote is not doing any good at this point. I will place it somewhere it will be more useful. That place is not the stupidly large bandwagon.

Unvote: GH
Vote: Sigurd

[CountArach]

In retrospect... and after like 5 seconds of thought, my previous idea is moronic. Why would they kill each other as part of their goal?

Unvote: Glenn
Vote: Stephen Asen

[Kagemusha]

Could someone please elaborate and tell me what exactly is the case against Stephen Asen? After reading the start of this game, to me two players stand up by far behaving most suspiciously. Beskar, who is fanatically protecting himself from any accusations, maybe bit too fanatically.

Also Sasaki Kojiro challenged Ibn-Khaldun with very light reasons. As if he had very little to be scared of the outcome. Sasaki should also know better that killing people in duels just for the heck of it only hurts the town.

Vote: Beskar

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Sasaki - what made you think there is a link between Stephen Asen and AggonyDuck?

As it turns out there was. You've been asked this question twice and didn't answer either time.

Vote: Sasaki

Poor excuse for a retaliation vote...but no matter:

So do the battle ratings run on a scale from 1-10?

Not much to go on, but I wonder if AggonyDuck has a 9 or 10 rating. This could mean either he's either an assassin or a bodyguard, so I wouldn't want to FOS him yet, since he may be a valueable role.

It's not necessary to expose such things to public. I ask you to edit your post in the Swords in the Moon.

Why did you want yarapolk to edit out post 488?

Sasaki

I don't know. If I survive I will have enough time to think over it. I think one of the traitors died that night (Olavi).

Could someone please elaborate and tell me what exactly is the case against Stephen Asen? After reading the start of this game, to me two players stand up by far behaving most suspiciously. Beskar, who is fanatically protecting himself from any accusations, maybe bit too fanatically.

Also Sasaki Kojiro challenged Ibn-Khaldun with very light reasons. As if he had very little to be scared of the outcome. Sasaki should also know better that killing people in duels just for the heck of it only hurts the town.

Vote: Beskar

Beskar's case doesn't make much sense to me either. Seems to be relying solely on assumptions about when kills were sent in.

The above exchange weirds me out though...

Duels are fun, you should know that

He's a friend and I think this might be his first mafia game, so I'm not going to join a bandwagon against him without a good reason for suspicion. That said I haven't had the time to read the posts he has made so far, so I might change my opinion after that

Upon looking at those posts, I think we will have to lynch Stephen sooner or later. I don't really have a gut reaction yet, but there's a good possibility that Stephen is one of the ninjas, so we might just have to lynch him quick and hope that we were correct. That said I suggest we keep a very close eye on Beskar as well.

Unvote: Abstain, Vote: Stephen Asen

Unvote:Yarapolk
Vote:AggonyDuck

Doesn't seem like him, and the exchange above indicates an in game connection to me. Especially stephen's "I don't know".

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Challenge:AggonyDuck

Since Stephen will be the one lynched.

[Kagemusha]

I agree that Duckie seems somewhat suspicious with his light reasons for getting rid of Stephen Asen also. Still about the duels. Each time a samurai dies in vain, that gives better chances for the ninjas to achieve their goals. So killing for fun is bit suspicious, even coming from Sasaki Kojiro.

[Death is yonder]

While it is true that GH is managing a major PvP battle in the Throne Room at the moment, a good portion of that battle involves waiting 1-2 days for orders to be submitted. I can see the battle interfering with his posting while he's figuring out the results of a particular combat phase, but after the initial setup (which was completed before this game began) there's still a lot of free time to be had. For this reason, GH should not be let off the hook for his low post count. That said, my GH vote is not doing any good at this point. I will place it somewhere it will be more useful. That place is not the stupidly large bandwagon.

Unvote: GH
Vote: Sigurd

May I ask why you are voting Sigurd other than him supposedly being a lurker when scum? And not joining a bandwagon of course... but I've noticed that the votes for Sigurd come with not much reason thus far. Still, there indeed is nothing much to lynch upon at the moment... rather lost at the moment where to place a vote . Perhaps you three are starting a new bandwagon for the other 3/5 of the population who has not voted ? I will wait...
Unvote Stephen Asen
Vote: Abstain

@Kage- Well, we basically have nothing at the moment, just attempts at understanding how the game is running at the moment, who is killing who, whether it be ninja or traitor, we're rather... lynch happy at the moment it seems, with little coming up and town jumping all over it, but we really need to make progress... we're not going anywhere these few rounds already, and we are already down a pro-town role. #Post 517, page 18= That is what started it all.

Reading it through once more, it sounds suspicious. Referring to Andres haiku, I only made the precursor that garnered his response in haiku form for fun. I know already that the night phase is scheduled to end at a fixed time. His third quote of Stephen has been interpreted wrongly after further investigation... Stephen's comment was purely based on our minor poetic/haiku theme in posting. Furthermore, his comment about the victim who would stop playing is rather scummy too. There are plenty others who are lurking/ away, why single out Olavi.

Furthermore, I believe that Andres wouldn't post the final write ups just after receiving the last order... I do not believe the host would provide such a blatant clue which would encourage massive profile watching. Rather, I think Andres would intentionally delay the write-ups. GH for one does as such in his mafia do discourage profile watching pertaining to activity near the kill times... at least I think so.

Suspicious behavior Beskar, you are either an overzealous townie searching for any scrap of evidence or a scum who has tried to provide 'logical' sounding analysis to mislead town.

As such, I will
Unvote: Abstain
Vote: Beskar

[Beskar]

It isn't me. Yoshi-san, my IC person is too lazy to be a mafia-role. Complete opposite of me. (In the sense I posted a lot. Mainly due to I should be doing revision....)

(Yoshi-san with his Strawhat)

Waste of a vote, putting it on me. If my argument was logically sounding and makes sense, then it does on its own merits, nothing to do with it being false. I only work with the truth.

[AggonyDuck]

With hindsight I'd say both my posts were a bit hasty. Due to your question, I did feel pressure to take a stance on Stephen and I decided to vote against him as I couldn't quite figure out how he had noticed that thing about Olavi's name. I also agree it might have been on light grounds, but that said I've slept only two hours this night due to an exam, so my mind is rather foggy.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Mafia games would be really screwed if it relied on concrete evidence. Only an imbecile mafia role would actually give concrete evidence they are "it".

Misquoting is scummy

Read Death is Yonder's post for why it's not a good idea to make assumptions about when the kills were sent in.


Edit: he edited that bit out


And Kage, duels are a solid pro town strategy as well as being fun.

[TinCow]

May I ask why you are voting Sigurd other than him supposedly being a lurker when scum? And not joining a bandwagon of course... but I've noticed that the votes for Sigurd come with not much reason thus far. Still, there indeed is nothing much to lynch upon at the moment... rather lost at the moment where to place a vote . Perhaps you three are starting a new bandwagon for the other 3/5 of the population who has not voted ? I will wait...

I voted for him specifically because there were already 2 other votes on him. A single vote isn't likely to pressure someone into talking, especially not with an almost certain lynch via bandwagon like we've got going on now. The only way to put pressure on someone other than the bandwagonee in a day like this is to pump someone else up there a bit. Sigurd isn't talking. Sigurd has a couple votes. Thus my vote is more useful on him than on GH. The only other option was Yaropolk, but he's contributing more than Sigurd and I wouldn't classify him as a lurker.

[Beskar]

Read Death is Yonder's post for why it's not a good idea to make assumptions about when the kills were sent in.

Well, Andres said the deadline was at was on the half of hour. If no one submitted, he would have done it then. While he posted before he was still waiting for role people then posted 20 minutes before the dead, 10 minutes after Stephen would have popped him the message.

Could blame Andres for not sticking to the deadline, that is not my fault, rather the hosts. Naughty Andres. (I love you really Andres <3333 don't give me bad random rolls)

[Kagemusha]

Sasaki duels can be a tool for both town and for mafia. If we assume that the Ninjas/ traitors have high battle values. Townie can identify one by sacrificing himself in a duel. But even in that case he might have found an anti town person, but just as well he might have got himself killed by swordmaster, whom should have very high duel value as well. In the conclusion sacrificing a townie for peculiar results seems not very powerful tool for the town. This method kills townies, which is a bad thing. Also in case a townie challenges a swordmaster and looses, it creates pressure to lynch a pro town role.

On the other hand, if we assume that someone who is anti town goes around challenging other based on light reasons, protected by his high duel value. For such person that strategy only creates benefit. First each dead townie is good thing for mafia and second if he looses to a swordmaster. His partners know who to aim for the next night.

Based on these things you are very high up in my suspect list, specially with you challenging again this round. It seems that you have high stats, because you are looking for challenges with much eagerness. I have serious dobts that you would play that way if you would be a swordmaster, because in that case you would become immediately an assasination target. Thus you seem more then scummy to me.

[atheotes]

I have gone through the posts and there is nothing strong enough to point one direction or the other... for now it looks like Stephen is going to get lynched... not sure if there is a strong case or not... personally i am more suspicious of Beskar (it took him only one minute to post his last defense! looks too anxious)...
i am hoping that Sasaki vs Aggony duel takes place... the results might point to something...


Vote: Beskar

[Louis VI the Fat]

Louis, no comment on my classification?

Sorry, the thread is simply unwieldingly large. I remembered reading some useful comments about working out the system behind the killings, but didn't quite recall where and of what nature.

I've added it in, thanks.

Well, Andres said the deadline was at was on the half of hour. If no one submitted, he would have done it then. While he posted before he was still waiting for role people then posted 20 minutes before the dead, 10 minutes after Stephen would have popped him the message.

Could blame Andres for not sticking to the deadline, that is not my fault, rather the hosts. Naughty Andres.

That does it.

Challenge: Andres. Let's test his worth in the only manly way possible. In battle.