Swords in the Moon [Concluded]

**Beskar** · 05-11-2009, 01:47

GH is innocent.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 02:11

Originally Posted by Beskar

GH is innocent.

You just confessed to being mafia.

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 02:37

Well, guess this is it. We have to get this right.

Below spoilers are links to every post the other five alive people have made in the game. After that's done I'll attempt to do an analysis.

Ichigo

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

Kagemusha

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

Rhyfelwyr

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

Yoyoma

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

woad&fangs

Spoiler Alert, click show to read:

Final conclusion: I haven't finished everything I want to do with this game yet, but at least this will give everybody something to discuss for now. Basically, my case on Rhyfelwyr is this:

1. He survived the pever massacre.
2. He voted LG for trying to draw attention to the fact that there were survivors.
3. He claims watching the game for a while but apparently hasn't seen anything worth commenting on. Again, I ask: How many of you guys, as mafiosi, have often had trouble creating a reasoning for voting somebody?
4. When it looked like he was going to get lynched for a while, his activity jumped and he got very agitated.

Now, I don't know enough about Rhyf's general mafia game behavior in order to make a really distinct conclusion. If anyone knows more than me, I would appreciate them detailing their knowledge in the thread.

In addition, a quick response to woad's short defense of Rhyf:

Originally Posted by woad&fangs

In his favor, the kill choices seem more like that of a veteran. Also, GH survived through the night despite challenging Rhyf.

1. He could be deferring to somebody else on kill choices.
2. I looked in trouble during the night phase. Maybe he and his crew picked me as a good final lynch.

Basically, as of right now, I think the evidence against Rhyfelwyr is greater than it is against anyone else. If it's not him, then I suspect Kage and Yoyoma, in that order. But I doubt we'll have time to go through them all.

Vote: Rhyfelwyr

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 04:40

Yes, GH is definitely mafia.

**Beskar** · 05-11-2009, 04:45

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Yes, GH is definitely mafia.

You just confessed to being mafia.

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 04:46

Put aside your biases and look at this objectively, Sasaki.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 05:00

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Put aside your biases and look at this objectively, Sasaki.

Is it your position that I've been biased against you this game?

What objective facts speak in your favor?

I suppose I could list some of the things that tweak my gut. In no particular order:

The kill choices
your reaction to my reveal
Your challenges remind me much of my own, in that I cared less about who I challenged than about appearing willing to take the risk
Woad and fangs awkwardness in relation to you
the tone of your excuses for lack of attention
The way you came into today with a plan of action

In short, there are many things that remind me of your play in inishmore. After having spent the whole game plotting with you I fancy I have a good feel for your play as mafia.

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 05:10

Not this whole game, just recently.

IIRC, you've always been of the opinion that somebody on Banquo's innocent list is guilty. I'm the only one left. Naturally, if this isn't the case, then this point's moot. But there's more. You've pointed to me specifically over the past 24-48 hours. This is the first time you've mentioned several of those items on your list, retroactively relating them to my guilt. You're finding those behavioral quirks this game because you think they point to my guilt, but the reality is that you want them to point to my guilt because you've already identified me as guilty ever since the Dutch_guy thing IIRC. Confirmation bias all over again. I've caught you in it before, but this time it's the endgame. I don't think you can shrug it off as much now, because if you're wrong, we're dead.

As for your list, I can't really defend most of the points you make, aside from re-iterate the fact that this is the first time you brought a lot of them up. I can, however, respond to one particular thing:

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

The way you came into today with a plan of action

It's (probably) the final round in the .Org 10th Anniversary Mafia game that started out with 64 players. I figure it's a good time to get my act together, don't you?

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 05:19

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Not this whole game, just recently.

IIRC, you've always been of the opinion that somebody on Banquo's innocent list is guilty. 'm the only one left.

No, I found several of the people on it suspicious. Obviously the if there was a godfather type role he wouldn't HAVE to be on the innocent list.

Naturally, if this isn't the case, then this point's moot. But there's more. You've pointed to me specifically over the past 24-48 hours. This is the first time you've mentioned several of those items on your list, retroactively relating them to my guilt. You're finding those behavioral quirks this game because you think they point to my guilt, but the reality is that you want them to point to my guilt because you've already identified me as guilty ever since the Dutch_guy thing IIRC. Confirmation bias all over again. I've caught you in it before, but this time it's the endgame. I don't think you can shrug it off as much now, because if you're wrong, we're dead.

As for your list, I can't really defend most of the points you make, aside from re-iterate the fact that this is the first time you brought a lot of them up. I can, however, respond to one particular thing:

Why did I first think you were guilty? What tweaked my gut? I posted what first tweaked my gut and led me to accuse you If you claim these are retroactive, then what was the first cause?

BTW, since you say "confirmation bias all over again" surely you remember that the last time you accused me of it was when I was arguing that ares was guilty in "the settlement"...and he WAS guilty. So now how about your "catching me in it before"?

It's (probably) the final round in the .Org 10th Anniversary Mafia game that started out with 64 players. I figure it's a good time to get my act together, don't you?

The WAY you came in with a plan. Yes it's gut and you can't argue with it, so why try?

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 05:26

Why did I first think you were guilty? What tweaked my gut? I posted what first tweaked my gut and led me to accuse you If you claim these are retroactive, then what was the first cause?

May 8th you were pushing for a Rhyfelwyr lynch. Less than 24 hours later you did an about-face and said that I was "almost certainly scum", along with woad to a lesser extent. What happened in those 24 hours? I had my vote on Dutch, switched it to Rhyf because I wanted a tie (between Dutch and Beskar) for a second to think, and then put it back onto Dutch because I decided that Beskar was innocent. That was the only thing of note I did in that time. Everything else, all of these other charges you've laid on me, is the first time I've seen them.

BTW, since you say "confirmation bias all over again" surely you remember that the last time you accused me of it was when I was arguing that ares was guilty in "the settlement"...and he WAS guilty. So now how about your "catching me in it before"?

Ares had writeup evidence against him, which was already two strikes against him. You're basing your case on me solely off behavioral patterns, which means there's far more of a chance of it being wrong.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 05:48

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

May 8th you were pushing for a Rhyfelwyr lynch. Less than 24 hours later you did an about-face and said that I was "almost certainly scum", along with woad to a lesser extent. What happened in those 24 hours? I had my vote on Dutch, switched it to Rhyf because I wanted a tie (between Dutch and Beskar) for a second to think, and then put it back onto Dutch because I decided that Beskar was innocent. That was the only thing of note I did in that time. Everything else, all of these other charges you've laid on me, is the first time I've seen them.

Kage and FH said something about you being mafia and I stopped and thought about it. You should know that this is how it works, you hosted godfather three. Didn't I go from "lynch curio" to, "hey the writeup indicates two mafia" to "white_eyes and beefy are guilty"?

So, your entire attempt to dismiss my gut suspicion is flawed, and you should know it.

Ares had writeup evidence against him, which was already two strikes against him. You're basing your case on me solely off behavioral patterns, which means there's far more of a chance of it being wrong.

This sidesteps my point. The angle you're taking is that my suspicions of you can be dismissed as confirmation bias and you said that you'd "caught me in it before". Now you make the distinction between writeup evidence and behavioral patterns. I've never seen this argument before so it must be confirmation bias on your part, case closed

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 05:52

Originally Posted by Sasaki Kojiro

Kage and FH said something about you being mafia and I stopped and thought about it. You should know that this is how it works, you hosted godfather three. Didn't I go from "lynch curio" to, "hey the writeup indicates two mafia" to "white_eyes and beefy are guilty"?

So, your entire attempt to dismiss my gut suspicion is flawed, and you should know it.

This sidesteps my point. The angle you're taking is that my suspicions of you can be dismissed as confirmation bias and you said that you'd "caught me in it before". Now you make the distinction between writeup evidence and behavioral patterns. I've never seen this argument before so it must be confirmation bias on your part, case closed

*sigh* at least do a reread. Don't just concentrate on me either, make sure to hit somebody outside of your axis of suspicion. Preferably Rhyf.

**Seamus Fermanagh** · 05-11-2009, 05:54

Sasaki:

You have spent realtively little time considering ANY lynch target save for those who NG said he'd had an "innocent" result upon.

This undercuts your argument against GH.

However, I do see an "excited" tone from GH, who I know prefers mafia roles. To be fair to him though, he did get pretty worked up in his last pro-town role too....

I think we've lost. We can make cases against any remaining player, and none seem that compelling.

How about we hear from other aside from GH...at length...and see who can't discuss with verve.

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 05:59

I think the tone is more attributed to my still being alive in the endgame than anything else. This is a pretty rare occurrance for me. Plus, this being such a special game, I want to get this right.

**Csargo** · 05-11-2009, 06:10

Alright, I'm having trouble with GH's links to everyone's posts. Everytime I open them my browser goes crazy and just keeps opening up new tabs to the same post. I have to restart the computer because it won't stop(has happened three times). Can someone post their posts in text form?

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 06:14

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

*sigh* at least do a reread. Don't just concentrate on me either, make sure to hit somebody outside of your axis of suspicion. Preferably Rhyf.

Don't have time unfortunately. I don't believe there is a smoking gun in terms of a link to a known mafioso (quintus didn't seem that active) and I'm content with my gut feeling.

Originally Posted by Seamus Fermanagh

Sasaki:

You have spent realtively little time considering ANY lynch target save for those who NG said he'd had an "innocent" result upon.

This undercuts your argument against GH.

BG investigated top suspects, so the people he has results on are those who were seen as suspicious for various reasons. So, not surprising that they still come under fire.

**Yoyoma1910** · 05-11-2009, 06:50

The poetry:

As this is one of my last games (along with Noble Sons 2), I thought I would finish my time here in some sense of style. That's all. It was a personal decision, and I see now it's become an easy way to distract from the real issue. It's why I stopped writing it. Sorry I even tried.

I think woad's case against me is poop.

I play whatever role I'm given to the best of my ability until the game is over or I see it's time to stop.

In Fillet Royal I was an overweight guy name Porky.
In Murder Manor II I was the toilet.

I've played all sorts of roles here, and always I have tried to give each one my all.

From bar wench, to American tourist in Turkey, to Grunhilda, and many more.

Here sir, I am

Amane Fuseishutsu – veteran samurai. And I am trying to avenge my now deceased lord.

And I am going to vote for you, because both Sasaki and the cards say you are guilty. And I believe they are right.

Vote:Woad and Fangs

**Andres** · 05-11-2009, 09:07

12 hours 30 minutes until deadline.

**AggonyDuck** · 05-11-2009, 10:39

The funny thing is that 50% of those alive are guilty, which means that three of you are lying your guts out.

**TinCow** · 05-11-2009, 11:54

Originally Posted by AggonyDuck

The funny thing is that 50% of those alive are guilty, which means that three of you are lying your guts out.

If three of them are guilty, it doesn't even matter if we get this lynch right because we've already lost.

**AggonyDuck** · 05-11-2009, 12:00

Not necessarily as there is atleast two ninjas and one traitor left. So if we lynch one ninja and the traitor and the remaining ninja go for each other there is a chance for a townie win.

**KukriKhan** · 05-11-2009, 13:13

Originally Posted by AggonyDuck

Not necessarily as there is atleast two ninjas and one traitor left. So if we lynch one ninja and the traitor and the remaining ninja go for each other there is a chance for a townie win.

I agree: this is the deciding round. Lynch a ninja, town survives. Lynch a townie, the bad guys will be dancing their victory dance. That they haven't begun their gavot yet, is telling.

The "lay low" players are still laying low. GH finally woke up and acts interested in the game after 2 weeks of boredom. Tough call. I stick with the cards, in order: w&f, Ichigo, GH

Good luck town.

**Kagemusha** · 05-11-2009, 13:37

Well. Whom ever has been the mafia. My congratulations to them for game well played, because there does not seem to be any clear mistakes made by them. So all i have left is my gut feeling and couple small hints which might not mean nothing, but thats all i got.

First. From the start of the game i have claimed that challenging with light reason should be seen as scummy behaviour. From the players left GH fills that criteria. As if he have had little to fear for his own life and taking down the number of townies would have been something that would be positive to his agenda. So based on that GH is my prime suspect. Also two other minor things have got my attention. First couple rounds GH offered his services to the town, which seems like an effort for him to be seen as pro town force. There is no better place for mafia to hide. Second his sudden analyzis this round, when during the earlier rounds he has been playing very agressive, but short worded game, strikes me as odd. Last. As Quintus.J.C is the one guilty we know. It was GH who he voted before his death. That is something i would probably do to distance myself from my mafia partner.

Now the problem lies in there that even if GH is guilty. We simply cant know is he a traitor or Ninja. This might be a terrible mistake, but the vote has to be casted. Ofcourse it can be changed if something more suspicious surfaces, but based on the thoughts above.

Vote: GH

**Gregoshi** · 05-11-2009, 13:59

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

Plus, this being such a special game, I want to get this right.

This sentiment would have been more helpful had it come several days ago when there was still a town.

I can be talked into GH and w&f as scum (heck, I could be convinced of just about anyone

).

But for the sake of finding support for such a stance, w&f has come to the aid of GH twice when he appeared in trouble.

GH "seems" innocent: post #2011
In post #1508 w&f dismisses case against GH because it was revealed another samurai didn't bow to Shingen - and ignoring the shaming of his opponent.

As for GH, his prime case, in my eyes, come from within and outside the game:

His shaming of his opponent and not bowing to Shingen during his first duel.
From outside this game, GH is the "godfather" of the mafia games here at the Org, correct? It would make sense he'd have a special role in the 10th Anniversary game, i.e. the godfather role of master ninja. As support, it appears to me that Sasaki has had a notorious reputation in mafia games and he ends up with the secret Shingen role. Why not another key vet player taking the role opposite him?

That is about all I have and except for maybe point #2 against GH, they can all be counter-argued.

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 15:15

Well, I'm not going to change my vote, that much is certain. I'm confident Rhyfelwyr is our man. Whether I get lynched or woad or anybody else, it doesn't matter, because it's still not Rhyf.

woad and I have no connection in this game. We exchanged PMs once - last round - and that was it. He asked me what I was doing, I told him (I wasn't sure/I needed to think). End communications.

I do request that the people actually read my allegations against Rhyfelwyr as if they were made by a dead townie trying to help, and not go into it looking for ways to point to my guilt.

**Gregoshi** · 05-11-2009, 15:32

The problem, GH, is there is so little solid info on anyone and you can make a case against most all the survivors - just as you can refute most of the cases. Take yours against Rhyfelwyr. Sure he is the only surviving pever, but there were four pevers and only three allowed ninja kills per night. That left the lone surviving pever looking might suspicious, so leaving Rhyfelwyr alive as a false suspect would be advantageous for the ninja.

Any case building going on is simply to give some justification to a decision that is nigh impossible to make. However, for lack of anything else to go on, I'm liking the idea of the godfather of Org mafia games playing the godfather in a very special anniversary game. I've had this feeling for a while that the role selection process wasn't all random. Associating you with the master ninja role didn't click until a short while ago. I could be totally off base, but then, it doesn't matter what I think because I'm dead and can't vote.

I'm anxiously awaiting the end of the game though.

**GeneralHankerchief** · 05-11-2009, 15:38

Thanks for responding, because this means I get to hammer a couple of points in.

First of all, I believe there were two surviving pevers IIRC: Rhyf and YLC. YLC was also quickly disposed of.
Secondly, my case is more than just the pever thing. Rhyf also got very agitated when people pointed out he was the last of the pevers earlier, and also, his activity skyrocketed when he got in trouble. To me, Rhyfelwyr's behavioral quirks outweigh the possibility of him being left alive to be lynched.

And yes, whoever the mafia are, they've played a great game and probably deserve to win, regardless of what actually happens.

**Sasaki Kojiro** · 05-11-2009, 15:41

Originally Posted by GeneralHankerchief

I do request that the people actually read my allegations against Rhyfelwyr as if they were made by a dead townie trying to help, and not go into it looking for ways to point to my guilt.

I read your case on rhyf.

1. He survived the pever massacre.

You accuse him of killing all the other pever's to leave himself one of the few alive.

2. He voted LG for trying to draw attention to the fact that there were survivors.

He is upset that people point out that there are survivors?

3. He claims watching the game for a while but apparently hasn't seen anything worth commenting on. Again, I ask: How many of you guys, as mafiosi, have often had trouble creating a reasoning for voting somebody?

He lurked this game and

4. When it looked like he was going to get lynched for a while, his activity jumped and he got very agitated.

When voted he got interested?

3&4 and standard op for many people. Many people lurk (particularly this game) and most's people have a jump in activity after they are accused. You yourself claimed to be not following the game closely in the early rounds, and bumped up your activity towards the endgame.

1&2 don't make sense. There's no reason to assume he killed the pever's to create a wifom "I wouldn't have left myself as one of the few survivor's" scenario. The ninja's could only kill 3 of the pever's, so of course there are survivors. One could just as easily say that you killed the pever's because it creates a wifom as well, what with your vendetta against them.

Rhyf's vote against LG was a one liner. He didn't even reply to LG's response as far as I can see. And it's perfectly legitimate to say that it's silly to vote someone for being a surviving pever. LG was going after YLC anyway, not Rhyf.

He votes LG again next round but it's a one liner vote again. What's his plan with this as mafia supposed to be?

**TinCow** · 05-11-2009, 15:59

Originally Posted by Gregoshi

The problem, GH, is there is so little solid info on anyone and you can make a case against most all the survivors - just as you can refute most of the cases. Take yours against Rhyfelwyr. Sure he is the only surviving pever, but there were four pevers and only three allowed ninja kills per night. That left the lone surviving pever looking might suspicious, so leaving Rhyfelwyr alive as a false suspect would be advantageous for the ninja.

This isn't correct. YLC was also a pever. After the 'pever massacre' there were two pevers left, Rhy and YLC. It's worth noting that early in the game I was getting scum-vibes from Rhy. If you read his responses to my accusations, he was extraordinarily defensive and reactionary.

The only reason he wasn't lynched right then and there was because he posted his role PM after I encouraged him to do so. At the time, this was accepted as proof of innocence, since we didn't know that Andres had given out cover role PMs. Since we now know that cover role PMs were indeed given to those with roles, Rhy's entire defense has evaporated. He remains as someone who has acted scummy the entire game and is a very decent lynch choice.

**TinCow** · 05-11-2009, 16:32

On review, it seems Rhy wasn't saved by posting his role PM. That happened after the lynch. Instead, Rhy was saved by atheotes, who broke the tie and put TosaInu ahead in the votes with about 30 minutes to spare. This is the same atheotes who was killed in a duel when both duelists were 'ordered' to commit seppuku instead of fighting. Does no one find it strange that of all the duels we've had, this particular one resulted in no battle and the death of both combatants? Could it be that this is what happens when a ninja ends up in a duel?

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