Assuming that Kukri will close the primaries thread and begin anew with a unified thread on the General elections in the Fall, I will jump in and start such a unified thread with the following analysis.
The goal of the post is to establish the analytical basis for the following prognosticative statement:
Barack Hussein Obama will be elected President of the United States
As most Backroomers are aware, the USA apportions the 538 votes in the electoral college – the votes that actually elect a President – among the 50 states and District of Columbia based upon representation in Congress with each state receiving a number of electors equal to its total representation in both the House of Representatives and the Senate. Thus each state has a minimum of three electors. In 49 of these locales, ALL of a state’s electors are required to vote for the candidate receiving a plurality of votes in that state. The other two – Maine and Nebraska – assign electors by Congressional district with the electors representing the states senators going to the candidate receiving the plurality of votes in that state. These are the only states wherein – barring a “faithless elector” – a split in electoral vote may occur. A candidate receiving a majority of these electoral votes (270) is elected to the Presidency.
Based on Presidential results since the end of the Reagan era, informed by the issues/themes discovered in the nomination process, we can make a fair estimate of the likely electoral vote totals that will result from this fall’s general election.
By Region:
New England [65] (CT-7, ME-4, MA-12, NH-4, NY-31, RI-4, VT-3): McCain = 4; Obama = 61.
A Dem stronghold for decades, only New Hampshire might vote for John McCain – they like his maverick style there and he’s received lots of crossover votes in both primaries he’s campaigned in there. The rest will vote for Obama, though his margin in Maine may be closer than Kerry’s in 2004.
Mid Atlantic [65] (DE –3, DC-3, MD-10, NJ-15, PA-21, VA-13): McCain = 21; Obama = 44.
This area, except for Virginia, has usually been a Dem stronghold. VA has changed a lot in recent years with the northern part of the state growing and growing more liberal politically. Moreover, some of the religious right voters – Pat Roberts has his HQ here – may not be dedicated enough to McCain to actually go to the polls. On the other hand, Obama’s weaker showing among “Reagan Democrats” might lose him Erie and Pittsburgh and prevent him from repeating Kerry’s win in PA – and could even give McCain an outside hope in NJ. My assessment is that Obama takes VA narrowly relying on his VEEP nominee Mark Warner, holds NJ, but loses a close one to McCain in PA.
South [142] (NC-15, SC-8, GA-15, FL-27, KY-8, TN-11, AL-9, MS-6, AR-6, LA-9, TX-34): McCain = 133; Obama = 15.
The South has been THE stronghold for the GOP for most of the last 4 decades. McCain will not command the numbers Bush did in the South – he’s too liberal for this region’s social-Republicanism and Borders first crowd – but enough will back him to avoid a Dem president to secure most of these states for McCain. Obama will bring more Black voters to the polls than anyone has ever seen and 97% of them will vote Obama, but it won’t be enough except in Louisiana and Mississippi. McCain will tap either Florida’s governor or a southern conservative as the VEEP nominee for the GOP and that will keep him in play. McCain will not win resoundingly in many of these states, but he’ll be first past the post. Obama, who is weaker among Hispanics than McCain and will lose some Jewish votes over the Wright scandal and Cuban votes by not being anti-Castro enough, will lose the crucial swing state of Florida.
West and SouthWest [105] (AK-3, AZ-10, CA-55, HI-4, OR-7, NM-5, NV-5, UT-5, WA-11):
McCain = 18; Obama = 32; ? = 55, with a very slight edge to Obama for them.
While much of the West Coast is a Dem lock with Obama at the top of the ticket (WA, OR, NV, HI), McCain can rest easy about Alaska and Utah and will probably not be threatened too much in his home state of Arizona – even though AZ has been a swing state in recent years. New Mexico is very much in play this year and – despite what many pundits may think – I think that California may be in play as well. McCain, as a liberal Republican with better support among Hispanics than Obama, may be able to repeat Ford’s narrow win over Carter in California. New Mexico will probably go Dem again this year – Bush wasn’t their preference in 2004 so much as they thought even less of Kerry. Obama takes that one in a squeaker.
The Plains [43] (CO-9, ID-4, KS-6, MT-3, NE-4+1, ND-3, OK-7, SD-3, WY-3): McCain = 42; Obama = 1.
Obama is strong in Iowa, and I think this will give him the edge in Omaha so that he picks up one vote in NE. I think he misses narrowly in Colorado and McCain runs the table for the rest – not as decisively as a true conservative would have, but Obama country it is not. Looks good on a map for John McCain, but Illinois and Michigan counter it neatly enough in the Electoral College.
Middle America [112] (IA-7, IL-21, IN-11, MI-17, MN-10, MO-11, OH-20, WV-5, WI-10): McCain = 47; Obama = 65
Lots of swing states out here and this will be THE electoral battleground. Indiana will remain a GOP stronghold, holding their noses and pulling the lever for McCain. Illinois, of course, can’t produce enough down state votes to counter the Chicago acclamation of Obama, so he wins this readily and takes Iowa, where McCain has never spent much of his effort. I predict that McCain holds WV, OH, and MO by siphoning off blue collar democrats. McCain will waste money in Michigan, where he’s always had fun in the primaries, but the GOP is fooling itself to think of it as a swing state. MN and WI are borderline, but Obama’s charm will win out in both. Obama will not do as well in this region as he – or Oprah – hope.
Thus far, I make it: McCain = 265 & Obama 218 and Obama in a narrow lead for the other 55, so.
If McCain can upset in Cali or New Mexico, this would change.
What say you?
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