U.S. Elections 2008: General Elections -- Analysis and Commentary

[PanzerJaeger]

And that makes McCain the better choice, how?

When faced with the unpleasant truths... divert! You'll fit in well here.

[CountArach]

When faced with the unpleasant truths... divert! You'll fit in well here.

There was nothing of substance in there - it was entirely superfluous.

[PanzerJaeger]

There was nothing of substance in there - it was entirely superfluous.

Interesting analysis. You feel his bills and senate record are superfluous?

Obama is definitely the candidate for you!

[Lemur]

I believe CA was referring to the anonymous, un-linked un-attributed list of 46 hysterical attacks. By all means, post some more of that sort of stuff. Does your credibility wonders.

[CountArach]

I believe CA was referring to the anonymous, un-linked un-attributed list of 46 hysterical attacks. By all means, post some more of that sort of stuff. Does your credibility wonders.

That's the one. I didn't bother to watch the YouTube link.

[PanzerJaeger]

I believe CA was referring to the anonymous, un-linked un-attributed list of 46 hysterical attacks. By all means, post some more of that sort of stuff. Does your credibility wonders.

Hysterical attacks should be pretty easy to refute...

[PanzerJaeger]

That's the one. I didn't bother to watch the YouTube link.

You should. Its the man's writings in his own words. Hard to spin that..

On second thought, it might chip at your preconcieved notions, so you should probably avoid it.

[KukriKhan]

Martial Law is declared here, and a 48-hour curfew imposed, so staff can sort the bloodied from the bloodiers. Thread will re-open this time Friday, 13 June, hopefully with a more civil tone. My apologies to readers.

[KukriKhan]

Thread is re-opened, a couple of hours later than promised. My apologies (longer than usual workday).

[Lemur]

Well, as you're probably aware, Fox News went for the trifecta. First there was calling for Obama's assassination, then there was the "terrorist fist-jab," and now it's calling Michelle Obama his "baby mama," a phrase normally reserved for unmarried women who you've knocked up.

Best comment on the subject so far:

Calling Michelle Obama a “baby mama” isn’t just Fox News having a happy casual larf; it’s using urban slang to a) remind you the Obamas are black, b) belittle a woman of considerable personal accomplishment, and c) frame Barack Obama’s relationship to his wife and children in a way that insults him, minimizes his love for and commitment to his family, and reinforces stereotypes about black men. Someone at Fox News just ought to call Barack Obama “boy” at some point so we can have all the cards right out there on the table.

[m52nickerson]

A democrat's compilation of Barack Obama's lies. Some interesting stuff in there...

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

1.) Selma Got Me Born - LIAR, your parents felt safe enough to have you in 1961 - Selma had no effect on your birth, as Selma was in 1965. (Google ‘Obama Selma’ for his full March 4, 2007 speech and articles about its various untruths.)

2.) Father Was A Goat Herder - LIAR, he was a privileged, well educated youth, who went on to work with the Kenyan Government.

3.) Father Was A Proud Freedom Fighter - LIAR, he was part of one of the most corrupt and violent governments Kenya has ever had.

4.) My Family Has Strong Ties To African Freedom - LIAR, your cousin Raila Odinga has created mass violence in attempting to overturn a legitimate election in 2007, in Kenya . It is the first widespread violence in decades. The current government is pro-American but Odinga wants to overthrow it and establish Muslim Sharia law. Your half-brother, Abongo Obama, is Odinga’s follower. You interrupted your New Hampshire campaigning to speak to Odinga on the phone. Check out this link for verification of that….and for more.

Obama’s cousin Odinga in Kenya ran for president and tried to get Sharia Muslim law in place there. When Odinga lost the elections, his followers have burned Christians’ homes and then burned men, women and children alive in a Christian church where they took shelter. Obama SUPPORTED his cousin before the election process here started. Google Obama and Odinga and see what you get. No one wants to know the truth.

5.) My Grandmother Has Always Been A Christian - LIAR, she does her daily Salat prayers at 5 AM according to her own interviews. Not to mention, Christianity wouldn’t allow her to have been one of 14 wives to 1 man.

6.) My Name is African Swahili - LIAR, your name is Arabic and ‘Baraka’ (from which Barack came) means ‘blessed’ in that language. Hussein is also Arabic and so is Obama.
Barack Hussein Obama is not half black. If elected, he would be the first Arab-American President, not the first black President. Barack Hussein Obama is 50% Caucasian from his mother’s side and 43.75% Arabic and 6.25% African Negro from his father’s side. While Barack Hussein Obama’s father was from Kenya , his father’s family was mainly Arabs. Barack Hussein Obama’s father was only 12.5% African Negro and 87.5% Arab (his father’s birth certificate even states he’s Arab, not African Negro). From
this link.

7.) I Never Practiced Islam - LIAR, you practiced it daily at school, where you were registered as a Muslim and kept that faith for 31 years,until your wife made you change, so you could run for office.
4-3-08 Article “Obama was ‘quite religious in islam’” This link.

8.) My School In Indonesia Was Christian - LIAR, you were registered as Muslim there and got in trouble in Koranic Studies for making faces (check your own book).
February 28, 2008.
Kristoff from the New York Times a year ago:

Mr. Obama recalled the opening lines of the Arabic call to prayer, reciting them with a first-rate accent. In a remark that seemed delightfully uncalculated (it’ll give Alabama voters heart attacks), Mr. Obama described the call to prayer as “one of the prettiest sounds on Earth at sunset.”
This is just one example of what Pamela is talking about when she says “Obama’s narrative is being altered, enhanced and manipulated to whitewash troubling facts.”

9.) I Was Fluent In Indonesian - LIAR, not one teacher says you could speak the language.

10.) Because I Lived In Indonesia , I Have More Foreign Experience - LIAR, you were there from the ages of 6 to 10, and couldn’t even speak the language. What did you learn, how to study the Koran and watch cartoons?

11.) I Am Stronger On Foreign Affairs - LIAR, except for Africa (surprise) and the Middle East (bigger surprise), you have never been anywhere else on the planet and thus have NO experience with our closest allies.

12.) I Blame My Early Drug Use On Ethnic Confusion - LIAR, you were quite content in high school to be Barry Obama, no mention of Kenya and no mention of struggle to identify - your classmates said you were just fine.

13.) An Ebony Article Moved Me To Run For Office - LIAR, Ebony has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn’t, and never did, exist.

14.) A Life Magazine Article Changed My Outlook On Life - LIAR, Life has yet to find the article you mention in your book. It doesn’t, and never did, exist.

15.) I Won’t Run On A National Ticket In ‘08 - LIAR, here you are, despite saying, live on TV, that you would not have enough experience by then, and you are all about having experience first.

16.) Present Votes Are Common In Illinois - LIAR, they are common for YOU, but not many others have 130 NO VOTES.

17.) Oops, I Misvoted - LIAR, only when caught by church groups and democrats, did you beg to change your misvote.

18.) I Was A Professor Of Law - LIAR, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.

19.) I Was A Constitutional Lawyer - LIAR, you were a senior lecturer ON LEAVE.

20.) Without Me, There Would Be No Ethics Bill - LIAR, you didn’t write it,introduce it, change it, or create it.

21.) The Ethics Bill Was Hard To Pass - LIAR, it took just 14 days from start to finish.

22.) I Wrote A Tough Nuclear Bill - LIAR, your bill was rejected by your own party for its pandering and lack of all regulation - mainly because of your Nuclear Donor, Exelon, from which David Axelrod came.

23.) I Have Released My State Records - LIAR, as of March, 2008, state bills you sponsored or voted for have yet to be released, exposing all the special interests pork hidden within.

24.) I Took On The Asbestos Altgeld Gardens Mess - LIAR, you were part of a large group of people who remedied Altgeld Gardens . You failed to mention anyone else but yourself, in your books.

25.) My Economics Bill Will Help America - LIAR, your 111 economic policies were just combined into a proposal which lost 99-0, and even YOU voted against your own bill.

26.) I Have Been A Bold Leader In Illinois - LIAR, even your own supporters claim to have not seen BOLD action on your part.

27.) I Passed 26 Of My Own Bills In One Year - LIAR, they were not YOUR bills, but rather handed to you, after their creation by a fellow Senator, to assist you in a future bid for higher office.

28.) No One Contacted Canada About NAFTA - LIAR, the Canadian Government issued the names and a memo of the conversation your campaign had with them.

29.) I Am Tough On Terrorism - LIAR, you missed the Iran Resolution vote on terrorism and your good friend Ali Abunimah supports the destruction of Israel .

30.) I Am Not Acting As President Yet - LIAR, after the NAFTA Memo, a dead terrorist in the FARC, in Colombia, was found with a letter stating how you and he were working together on getting FARC recognized officially.

31.) I Didn’t Run Ads In Florida - LIAR, you allowed national ads to run 8-12 times per day for two weeks - and you still lost.

32.) I Won Michigan - LIAR, no you didn’t.

33.) I won Nevada - LIAR, no you did not.

34.) I Want All Votes To Count - LIAR, you said let the delegates decide.

35.) I Want Americans To Decide - LIAR, you prefer caucuses that limit the vote, confuse the voters, force a public vote, and only operate during small windows of time.

36.) I passed 900 Bills in the State Senate - LIAR, you passed 26, most of which you didn’t write yourself.

37.) My Campaign Was Extorted By A Friend - LIAR, that friend is threatening to sue if you do not stop saying this. (Obama has now stopped saying this.)

38.) I Believe In Fairness, Not Tactics - LIAR, you used tactics to eliminate Alice Palmer from running against you.

39.) I Don’t Take PAC Money - LIAR, you take loads of it.

40.) I don’t Have Lobbysists - LIAR, you have over 47 lobbyists, and counting.

41.) My Campaign Had Nothing To Do With The 1984 Ad - LIAR, your own campaign worker made the ad on his Apple in one afternoon.

42.) My Campaign Never Took Over MySpace - LIAR, Tom, who started MySpace issued a warning about this advertising to MySpace clients.

43.) I Inspire People With My Words - LIAR, you inspire people with other people’s words.

44.) I Have Passed Bills In The U.S. Senate - LIAR, you have passed A BILL in the U.S. Senate - for Africa, which shows YOUR priorities.

45.) I Have Always Been Against Iraq - LIAR, you weren’t in office to vote against it AND you have voted to fund it every single time, unlike Kucinich, who seems to be out gutting you Obama. You also seem to be stepping back from your departure date - AGAIN.

46.) I Have Always Supported Universal Health Care - LIAR, your plan leaves us all to pay for the 15,000,000 who don’t have to buy it.

As I stated in another thread it seems Snopes has gone through and proved all this false.

http://www.snopes.com/politics/obama/50lies.asp

So, did you copy and paste this without knowing they were lies, if so it shows that you are uninformed, or did you know they were lies, and are now helping to perpetuate those lies?
Which one is it?

As far as your YouTube video, it is quit easy to tell that Obama is describing what thing were like for him growing up. That and the fact that the statements are incomplete. Perhaps you shoud try and post something with some type of substance.

[Xiahou]

Well, as you're probably aware, Fox News went for the trifecta.

Well, that settles it- I won't be voting for FoxNews this November. What? It's not running? Oh, nevermind then.

[Lemur]

Xiahou, the responses from the blogosphere have been hilarious; you'd have to be made of the anti-funny to not enjoy them. Maybe the best one-liner: "Did no one at that Fox Chyron department know how to spell 'Negress?' "

But the Scalzi post I linked to has some doozies worthy of Devastatin' Dave himself:

Back in the day – you know, when presidential candidates were respectably white – news organizations called potential First Ladies “wives.” But now that black folks are running, we can get all funky fresh with the lingo, yo. So it’s basically fine for Fox News to use “Baby Mama” for Michelle Obama, slang that implies a married 44-year-old Princeton-educated lawyer is, to use an Urban Dictionary definition of the term, “some chick you knocked up on accident during a fling who you can’t stand but you have to tolerate cuz she got your baby now.” Because the Obamas are black! And the blacks, they be all relaxed about that ****, yo. Word up.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Breaking news - Obama's half brother is part of the vast right-wing conspiracy to smear Obama as a Muslim!

Now, it seems to me Obama does have a history of being raised in a Muslim background, Indonesia specifically. Why the Clintonesque need to completely deny that and so turn a non-event politically into something where it can be said he's lying about his past?

And I really hope no one is stupid enough to go after Obama's wife with what they have now. It should be enough to simply show Obama's positions on the issues, namely international, like saying Jerusalem will remain undivided, then backing down much quicker than he did in his unilateral talks with Iran thing.

And my support for McCain is growing after hearing of his economic/tax plan.

CR

[OverKnight]

I read in the Boston Globe that the Barack Obama campaign has set up a website to repudiate the web based rumors about him and his family:

http://www.boston.com/news/nation/ar..._fight_rumors/

The article makes the point that this is an interesting tactic considering the conventional wisdom is that by trying to fight rumors you only serve to spread them.

Still the whole "Barack is a secret Muslim" meme has some traction, so maybe it is best to fight it.

A link to the site itself (responds to some accusations made up thread):

http://my.barackobama.com/page/conte...thesmearshome/

And a trip to snopes is always a good idea. I still get emails from one or two of my friends about one urban legend or another, ie the Post Office is going to tax e-mails.

Of course, people will believe what they want to believe, even if it isn't true.

[m52nickerson]

Of course, people will believe what they want to believe, even if it isn't true.

That is the sad fact. Instead of people focus on lies and half truths. You know there is a large segment of the population that would say that Obama is a black Muslim but could not tell you the smallest thing about his platform. It's the same for McCain, all they know it that he is a former veteran who spent many years as a P.O.W., but could not tell you were he stood on any issues.

We can't even have a discussion here with out people bringing in all kinds of crap.

[Geoffrey S]

That is the sad fact. Instead of people focus on lies and half truths. You know there is a large segment of the population that would say that Obama is a black Muslim but could not tell you the smallest thing about his platform. It's the same for McCain, all they know it that he is a former veteran who spent many years as a P.O.W., but could not tell you were he stood on any issues.

I think the candidates themselves are largely to blame for that. Commit themselves to a specific policy this early? They wouldn't dare, and with the media too lazy to challenge them on that matter it's going to stay that way for some time yet.

It's the same everywhere. I may not like Gordon Brown, for instance, but the opposition is getting a very easy time of it without having to present what their alternatives will be.

[CountArach]

That is the sad fact. Instead of people focus on lies and half truths. You know there is a large segment of the population that would say that Obama is a black Muslim but could not tell you the smallest thing about his platform. It's the same for McCain, all they know it that he is a former veteran who spent many years as a P.O.W., but could not tell you were he stood on any issues.

We can't even have a discussion here with out people bringing in all kinds of crap.

I shall revert to my usual fall-back position.

I blame the media.

[m52nickerson]

I shall revert to my usual fall-back position.

I blame the media.

The media does share some of the blame, but it is the voters that listen to the media don't do any research for them selfs and vote on who is wearing an American flag pin on there suit.

I do think as time goes on this will improve. My son's (he's two) generation will grow up so internet proficient that they will be far more informed then we are. I think people will more and more come to realize what is important and what is not.

[Odin]

I think people will more and more come to realize what is important and what is not.

I think we are there as evidenced by the success of Obama. We'll put aside the fact he beat the clinton machine at thier own game a second (not to minimalize it), but getting caught in the crap about his religion, racial make up, expirence is a waste of time.

Whats important here is people have realized whats important, and thats giving the U.S. political system a major enema and flushing out the conservatives. We realize whats important, we may stay the course (OMG am I quoting Bush?) here in the states but this ones a slam dunk.

Conservatives have set us back so far that the person who represents the greatest change will win. So it happens to be a black man, who had a muslim father and a white grandmother (I thought it would be a female, but I digress). The conservatives created an entire new cabinet level of government, forced Tommy Franks into a ridiculous battle plan for Iraq, created huge deficits, pissed on personal freedoms and have let the infrastructure of the country go to .

So whats important is, is someone put a new roll of toilet paper in the bathroom and flush

And thats whats going to happen. Sure you will be able to spend pages and pages and minutes of your time bickering back and forth with the various elements here at the org as to who voted for what bill when, or "does he raise his pinky when he drinks, thats the white coming out" but its really a very simple situation.

What is important, is the conservative government of the last 8 years has had a mamoth failre accross the board. They had it all in 2000 and what did they do with it? a well funded successful aids relief program in africa.

What people have come to realize, is that they made a mistake to trust Bush. Yep big mistake was made in 04, but hey 06 the people started to flush away the conservatives so hang in there. Your forecast for the future enlightenment is optomistic and its refreshing, but you've missed the mark its happening now.

Its happening now because the conservatives failed accross the board on a mamoth scale, their majority was unprecedented and they blew, so take heart friend we realized it.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Well said...

[CountArach]

Well said...

I concur. Excellent post Odin

As for polling (Seeing as I am absolute poll junkie), Obama has been getting a lot of party unity bounces across the country and the two sites that I watch the most closely (links in their title) for Electoral Vote distributions are showing the following:
Five Thirty Eight:
Obama 308.5 EVs (64.7% chance of victory - Lines up with the trading markets)
McCain 229.5 EVs (35.3%)

Popular vote - Obama 51.4, McCain 48.6

Note that this site was apparently quite accurate during the Primary season, and has recently updated its methodology to help predict states that haven't received much in the way of recent polling data. The methodology is very complex and takes into account long-term trends as well as recent polling averages. Overall I would trust this as quite accurate.

Electoral Vote Predictor:
Obama 304
McCain 221
Tied 13

This site has a much more simple methodology - an average of all the polls in the last week. Probably not as accurate as the other site, but seeing as the two coincide quite well I would be willing to say that this site isn't too bad. It also has an excellent Senate map.

[Don Corleone]

I have two things I'd like to say.

First, I'll acknowledge that Obama has a lead on McCain.

Second, I'll point out that it's nowhere near as big as Kerry's or Gore's over Bush was at this point. One thing I've learned... it'll always be a photo finish.

As for the disrespecting of Michele Obama, shameful. I think she can be quite chafing, but implying she's an out of wedlock mother? Pathetic.

[Lemur]

I'll point out that it's nowhere near as big as Kerry's or Gore's over Bush was at this point.

Hmm, that's not what the professional poll-smokers are saying ...

While polls can't accurately gauge an election five months out -- after all, so much can still happen -- it's worth putting Obama's lead into this perspective: Bush never trailed Kerry in the 2004 NBC/WSJ polls that measured registered voters' preference for Bush, Kerry, and Nader. And Bush's lead was never bigger than four points.

Bush won that presidential election by three percentage points, 51%-48%.

Here were the NBC/WSJ trial heats from March 2004 (when Kerry pretty much locked up the nomination) to late October 2004:
March (Mar.6-8): Bush 46%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%
May (May 1-3): Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 5%
June (June 25-28): Bush 45%, Kerry 44%, Nader 4%
July (July 19-21): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
August (Aug.23-25): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 3%
September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%
Late October (Oct.29-31): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

[Don Corleone]

Hmm, that's not what the professional poll-smokers are saying ...

While polls can't accurately gauge an election five months out -- after all, so much can still happen -- it's worth putting Obama's lead into this perspective: Bush never trailed Kerry in the 2004 NBC/WSJ polls that measured registered voters' preference for Bush, Kerry, and Nader. And Bush's lead was never bigger than four points.

Bush won that presidential election by three percentage points, 51%-48%.

Here were the NBC/WSJ trial heats from March 2004 (when Kerry pretty much locked up the nomination) to late October 2004:
March (Mar.6-8): Bush 46%, Kerry 43%, Nader 5%
May (May 1-3): Bush 46%, Kerry 42%, Nader 5%
June (June 25-28): Bush 45%, Kerry 44%, Nader 4%
July (July 19-21): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
August (Aug.23-25): Bush 47%, Kerry 45%, Nader 3%
September (Sept.17-19): Bush 48%, Kerry 45%, Nader 2%
Mid October (Oct.16-18): Bush 48%, Kerry 46%, Nader 2%
Late October (Oct.29-31): Bush 48%, Kerry 47%, Nader 1%

What!?! I thought Kerry had an 18 point lead at the conventions. I thought it was a done deal in June/July 2004. And you say Bush supposedly never trailed? I'm lazy, so can I ask you to go check Zogby for me? Pretty please?

[CountArach]

What!?! I thought Kerry had an 18 point lead at the conventions. I thought it was a done deal in June/July 2004. And you say Bush supposedly never trailed? I'm lazy, so can I ask you to go check Zogby for me? Pretty please?

2004 Polling Averages
Analysis

From April onward, John Kerry never held a lead of more than about 2 points in the Real Clear Politics national average, and George W. Bush never held a lead of more than 6 or 7 points. Those numbers pretty well framed the actual result of Bush +2.4.

[Don Corleone]

Fascinating. And here all this time, I thought Bush had more comebacks than Rocky. Was it that close with Gore all the time too?

Anyway, thanks for the info Lemur & CA.

[CountArach]

Fascinating. And here all this time, I thought Bush had more comebacks than Rocky. Was it that close with Gore all the time too?

Anyway, thanks for the info Lemur & CA.

Pleasure, I really enjoy polling so its no trouble

From the second link:

In 2000, George W. Bush was ahead by an average of 4.7 points in 14 June polls. In November, Al Gore won the popular vote by 0.5 points.

[Strike For The South]

I think we are there as evidenced by the success of Obama. We'll put aside the fact he beat the clinton machine at thier own game a second (not to minimalize it), but getting caught in the crap about his religion, racial make up, expirence is a waste of time.

Whats important here is people have realized whats important, and thats giving the U.S. political system a major enema and flushing out the conservatives. We realize whats important, we may stay the course (OMG am I quoting Bush?) here in the states but this ones a slam dunk.

Conservatives have set us back so far that the person who represents the greatest change will win. So it happens to be a black man, who had a muslim father and a white grandmother (I thought it would be a female, but I digress). The conservatives created an entire new cabinet level of government, forced Tommy Franks into a ridiculous battle plan for Iraq, created huge deficits, pissed on personal freedoms and have let the infrastructure of the country go to .

So whats important is, is someone put a new roll of toilet paper in the bathroom and flush

And thats whats going to happen. Sure you will be able to spend pages and pages and minutes of your time bickering back and forth with the various elements here at the org as to who voted for what bill when, or "does he raise his pinky when he drinks, thats the white coming out" but its really a very simple situation.

What is important, is the conservative government of the last 8 years has had a mamoth failre accross the board. They had it all in 2000 and what did they do with it? a well funded successful aids relief program in africa.

What people have come to realize, is that they made a mistake to trust Bush. Yep big mistake was made in 04, but hey 06 the people started to flush away the conservatives so hang in there. Your forecast for the future enlightenment is optomistic and its refreshing, but you've missed the mark its happening now.

Its happening now because the conservatives failed accross the board on a mamoth scale, their majority was unprecedented and they blew, so take heart friend we realized it.

So we should vote change for changes sake?

[m52nickerson]

So we should vote change for changes sake?

Since what we have been doing has not worked, yes!

Remember, Insanity is doing the same thing over and over and expecting a different result.

........guess the conservatives did not get that memo.