Mafia VIII: Return of the Recommencement of the Revenge of the Mafia [Concluded]

[GeneralHankerchief]

Focus on these players today(no particular order)

Shlin28
FactionHeir
Makaikhaan
Beefy187

[woad&fangs]

supposed to be Sarathos, beefy187, FactionHeir, and Makaikhaan.

[FactionHeir]

Nope, only that one today.

Something peculiar about the writeup though:
The first kill had the broken-nose voice and the second had a black mercedes.

In previous write ups, the broken-nose and the black mercedes were the same person, so did we manage to lynch a mafioso?
It is of course entirely possible that they are playing a trick on us whereby the first one (fedora) imitates the broken nose voice, as there was no description of the killer of kill 1 otherwise.

In either case, we should investigate Sasaki's contacts.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Vote: Kommodus

Do you have anything you wish to say/add?

[TinCow]

Kommodus has not posted in this thread in 5 days. Even when he was posting he was talking about how little time he had and that he shouldn't have signed up for the game. As has been noted, there do not appear to have been any mafioso failures to get PMs in on time. Kommodus is a very bad vote for these reasons.

FoS: Seamus - His analytical skills are too good to think that Kommodus is still a prime suspect. Along with previous inconsistensies in his analysis and his high level of activity, I urge that he be lynched.

[Privateerkev]

I have to concur on Seamus.

I still find it suspicious that he cut off his post analysis at Khaan.

And continuing to drum up bandwagons on Kommodus just seems scummy.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Seamus.

Privateerkev 68
GeneralHankerchief 45 -- Host
FactionHeir 32 2.29/ppp compared with 0.21/ppp in Capo2
Ichigo 27 1.93/ppp compared with 1.72 in Taormina and 1.05 in Capo2
Andres 23
KukriKhan 23 1.64/ppp compared with 0.76 in Taormina and 0.69 in Capo2
TinCow 22 1.57/ppp compared with 3.34 in Taormina and 1.9 in Capo2 What was he in Taormina?
Elite Ferret 21 1.5/ppp compared with 0.76 in Taormina and 0.65 in capo2
Sasaki Kojiro 21 1.5/ppp compared with 3.41 in Taormina and 2.7 in Capo2
Sarathos 21 1.5/ppp compared with 0.17 in Taormina and 0.44 in Capo2
shlin28 20 1.43/ppp compared with 0.45 in Taormina and 0.77 in Capo2
Craterus 18 1.29/ppp compared with 0.87 in Capo2

*(no comparison for rest of players)*


Quite a few people are posting differently than usual for them. Let's hear from them, shall we?

FH:

You're a notch more active here than any previous game.

1.54/ppp as a Detective in Netherworld; 1.94/ppp in St. Thomas as a townie; 1.82/ppp as a Bodyguard in Castle I.

Oddly, you seem to increase posting as your role becomes less of a "power role," or at least that's the case so far....


Sasaki-san:

You are way below average for you this time around. 'kev is dusting you on post-count! Will you let this go unchallenged?!?

Sasaki may simply be busy -- or cagey -- he's a bright lad and capable of either. Plus, he's been posting often enough in the backroom to make me think he's not quite as absent as some believe.

Kommodus' explanation is very much in his style, albeit unsatisfying for this outing. Pity too, I had played the first few phases specifically to see if I could sidestep Holmes.

More thoughts later.

Edit: TinCow's other badguy big game -- Netherworld -- saw him posting at 3.0/ppp; very much in line with his mafia role in Taormina and suggestive of a non-mafioso status this time.

Sarathos was 0.54/ppp in Netherworld as a townie. Not in line with this game....

Followed by a vote for Sarathos. Bolded part is interesting.

No suspicion of Kommodus. From this round of posting, one would believe that Seamus thought Kommodus was innocent, didn't think I was guilty, and thought Sarathos was suspicious, and thought factionheir was suspicious.

Well, Tinc's posting activity level, as well as the last post preceding this one, seem smooth and in character. The one that Andres twigged on, and which you now use as evidence, does seem a bit "off."

Kukri's style is totally normal, but his activity level is hugely up.

FH is posting with a frequency that says "townie" for him, but with a flippancy that does not.

This post is a great example of what I find suspicious about seamus.

1) TinCow's post is suspicious, but his frequency means he is innocent!
2) Kukrikhan's posts are all normal, but activity is up = guilty!
3) FactionHeir's posts are suspiciously flippant, but the posting frequency means innocent!

The entire accusation and vote for sarathos was based on posting frequency:

Sarathos was 0.54/ppp in Netherworld as a townie. Not in line with this game....

During the tie breaker Seamus says he thinks both TinCow and FH are innocent and votes for me. Next round:

Vote: Sasaki Kojiro

Lots of people left who play well and have a track record of success as mafiosi. Sasaki, Kukri, and Kommo stand out, for me, because we're seeing decidedly different volumes than norm from them. With respect, Sasaki, I think your style is too far off your base as well as your posting frrequency change. Your average is now coming up, of course, but....

If you were "laying back and letting things develop," we sure could use the benefits of your quiet insight now.


Kommodus and Kukri remain persons of concern for me.

FactionHeir and sarathos dropped completely. Accusation is entirely based on posting frequency. Other two suspicions based on posting frequency (despite saying earlier that the style of their posts was just like town). Now compare to past games (mafia VI):

Well, to be fair to Kommo, Sasaki is the best at behaving the same regardless of role. He typically posts more than anyone else on the thread by a large margin (except for ichigo). Kommo's system is designed to twig on discrepancies in style.

The limitations are that a style change is often, but not always, a sign of an active role. Sometimes its just a player taking his game to a new level or a relatively new player still developing their style.

Sasaki's absence in this thread is unusual (is he pissed off at the gameroom?).

Kommo's analysis, at least with this last post, is trending more toward the substantive of a townie Kommodus and away from the "keep it nebulous" version he used when in a scum role.

I think Sasaki was a bad lynch here -- though probably inevitable in context.

Suddenly shifting your posting behavior in that fashion is bound to draw attention and make you lynch bait. Therefore it seems unlikely as a mafia strategy.

I guess it was inevitable, however, because Sasaki is a bright chap and capable of using the above as the "reverse" reason for doing it -- WIFOM style. With that possibility, it's too easy a choice just to round up the quiet Sasaki as a "loose end."

On the whole, however, I suspect that we have NOT lynched a possible mafioso, and that this most recent vote is simply an effort at marking time while another pair of you join me.

Oddly enough, he completely discounts posting frequency and says he thinks I'm innocent. This is the townie Seamus.

His latest vote for Kommodus continues the trend. Base suspicions entirely off of posting frequency but selectively ignore some people. Ignore posting style.

I wonder about his asking if Kukri had a role via pm--sounds kind of like a mafioso going fishing.


FactionHeir I will get too some time. Then makaikhaan.

[Privateerkev]

Also, from the examples you give, he waffles a lot. He says something bad about someone, then something good. This lack of a hard opinion is classic mafia strategy. He posts analysis to seem helpful but neglects to provide much solid opinion or conclusion. And then he keeps changing his mind on what the analysis could mean.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I'm convinced.

Unvote: Kommodus

Vote: Seamus

[Sasaki Kojiro]

I'm convinced.

Unvote: Kommodus

Vote: Seamus

Vote Count:

Seamus 1 (Seamus)







Moving on to factionheir:

Not a big post just yet. This post from today though:

Nope, only that one today.

Something peculiar about the writeup though:
The first kill had the broken-nose voice and the second had a black mercedes.

In previous write ups, the broken-nose and the black mercedes were the same person, so did we manage to lynch a mafioso?
It is of course entirely possible that they are playing a trick on us whereby the first one (fedora) imitates the broken nose voice, as there was no description of the killer of kill 1 otherwise.

In either case, we should investigate Sasaki's contacts.

Now, read this:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=637

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Day breaks in the Frontroom. All is quiet. It was a bitterly cold morning, but nevertheless Csar was on sitting on a bench in the village park. However, he was having no fun. First of all, it was very cold out. Second of all, he had work to do. He was hunched over a thick book, furiously scribbling notes down.

A long, dark shadow suddenly came over him. Csar looked up to see what was blocking the sun. He saw a tall figure, wearing a wide brimmed hat with grapes on it. “Csar,” the figure said in a cold, evil voice.

“Oh it’s you Wanax -” Csar said, quite annoyedly, “move out of the way.”

The Wanax raised an eyebrow, or at least that was what Csar perceived, contrary to the fact that the dark void face of The Wanax remained static. “You are not terrified or even intimidated by The Wanax?”

Csar replied: “Normally I would be, but this Calculus is more terrifying and intimidating than any crazed Wanax could ever be.

“Hmm-” mused The Wanax as he plucked a grape from his hat, “I cannot have any rival causing fear around. Very well Csar, I shall help you end your worries concerning Calculus.”

“Really! Thanks Mr. Wanax!” Csar was ecstatic.

“Yes-Yes, anyway, I offer you two choices to end the cancer of calculus: The Analyst or the Phasgana.”

Csar was confused: “I don’t have any idea what either of those are.”

The Wanax rolled his eyes, which furthered perturbed Csar, as the void face remained static. He answered: “The Analyst or A Discourse Addressed to an Infidel Mathematician is Berkeley’s devastating attack on calculus. Now, subsequent mathematicians have addressed the refutations of Berkeley and tried to rigourously defend calculus, most notably Robinson, but it still remains an important challenge.”

The Wanax continued, though his voice had turned conspicuously evil: “However, I do not believe you are able to grasp the theoretical depth of The Analyst, so I shall acquaint you with the phasgana.

Csar noticed this change of tone and suddenly grew scared. "W-what's the phasgana?"

The Wanax grinned, although Csar could see nothing. "Let me show you."

Csar was found, cleaved in half, on the bench. Among the massive amount of blood was a business card with a grape watermark. Embossed on it were the words: ‘The Wanax.’

At the same time, Sigurd Fafnesbane was also out in the cold, admiring the Frontroom cliffs and just meditating. He knew that most likely he would die, so he might as well be at peace with himself before that time game.

So Sigurd passed the day by just staring out to the sea, immune to the cold. He was a Norwegian, after all. This kind of weather didn't bother him in the least.

However, what he saw next chilled to the bone. He could see a Bible passage painted onto one of the extremely pointy rocks below.

In shock, Sigurd turned around, wondering if anybody was around. He saw, right behind him, a man in sunglasses and a trenchcoat, grinning.

"Hello," said the mafioso, and punched Sigurd in the jaw. He went down, hard, but the mafioso grabbed his collar and dragged him to the edge of the cliffs.

"By the way, that Bible passage will be a lot easier to read on the way down." With that, the mafioso pushed Sigurd off the cliffs.

His statement was proven true. The last thing Sigurd saw before impacting on one of the extremely pointy rocks below was the following, painted on another rock:

"Apocalypse 12:9"

Later that day, in Chief of Police Beirut's office (the town square was now no more than a large crater due to the Wrath of God/General Hankerchief), the town was gathered to hear the latest news.

"Gentlemen," Beirut began, "Sorry about the lack of space, but judging by your previous successes room will soon be made. Anyway, Csar and Sigurd have been killed, and the person executed will still be buried alive. So get voting, and if you need to use the bathroom, it's down the hall, third door to your left."

~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Original post:

Okay, now I'm mad. The stupid thing crashed just as I clicked the "post" button. So, until I feel like writing the kills for a third friggin' time, I'm just going to post a short synopsis of who died.

-Csar was killed by the Wanax.
-Sigurd Fafnesbane was pushed off of a cliff. The Bible passage was "Apocalypse 12:9"

This from the round right after reenk roink had been lynched (the wanax killer).

It's a possibility that FactionHeir and his comrade tried to make it look like I was a mafioso that had been lynched. The mercedes is a subtle touch. From the way FH noticed and jumped right on it with the suggestion that we examine my "contacts" I think there is a decent chance of this. FH also fits in with Seamus as a possible pairing. FH was one of the people Seamus waffled on. His strange refusal to vote during the tie between FH and TC may have been his unwillingness to either vote for FH or possibly reveal himself by voting to save FH.

Seamus is still the lynch for today though...

[GeneralHankerchief]

Oh God, I remember doing that kill. It took me forever because the computer ate it twice right before I was about to post it.

Anyway, Sasaki, are you sure you have your rounds right? Reenk was lynched after that. I think you're looking for the Trix kill.

[woad&fangs]

Also from Mafia V, I present to you the kill of Sir Moody...

world. They knew nothing of the UltraWar situation. After all, this was the Frontroom. The Kingdom of Peace and Love! Crime was unheard of in these parts!

Anyways, they were walking down the street, not a care in the world. They were laughing, talking, and eating. The birds were chriping above them. But then, suddenly, they all flew away.

Behind them, a motor roared. A black unmarked car was speeding down the road. He had obviously removed the muffler to make the car louder. Sir Moody's gang cheered. This guy was obviously cool.

Somebody leaned out the window. He was dressed impeccably, in an unruffled suit with a black tie. The man had sunglasses on. Then something else leaned out of the window... the man's hands, holding onto a tommy gun!

Fire sprayed from the gun as the car roared by. Sir Moody was down, the victim of a drive-by shooting. One of his friends checked for a pulse, but there was none. He was gone.

Either Seamus is a mafioso or someone is trying really hard to frame him.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Oh God, I remember doing that kill. It took me forever because the computer ate it twice right before I was about to post it.

Anyway, Sasaki, are you sure you have your rounds right? Reenk was lynched after that. I think you're looking for the Trix kill.

My bad, this is the right round:

https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showp...&postcount=689

I forgot that reenk revealed at night.

[Kagemusha]

Vote: Seamus. The initial hunch remains strong.

[GeneralHankerchief]

I think that one might have been the best of my games ever. Of course, III and VI give it a run for its money...

*goes back to reread thread*

[FactionHeir]

It's a possibility that FactionHeir and his comrade tried to make it look like I was a mafioso that had been lynched. The mercedes is a subtle touch. From the way FH noticed and jumped right on it with the suggestion that we examine my "contacts" I think there is a decent chance of this. FH also fits in with Seamus as a possible pairing. FH was one of the people Seamus waffled on. His strange refusal to vote during the tie between FH and TC may have been his unwillingness to either vote for FH or possibly reveal himself by voting to save FH.

Seamus is still the lynch for today though...

Right, so I miraculously decided not to do it when TC and I were tied for the day after to remove any morsel of guilt from me and instead do it a few turns later? That doesn't sound very plausible, given the fact that I did not even vote you last turn (I abstained).

In my opinion you are trying rather hard to derail the town here after your rightful lynch.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

Right, so I miraculously decided not to do it when TC and I were tied for the day after to remove any morsel of guilt from me and instead do it a few turns later? That doesn't sound very plausible, given the fact that I did not even vote you last turn (I abstained).

In my opinion you are trying rather hard to derail the town here after your rightful lynch.

Do you think seamus is guilty?

[Beefy187]

Focus on these players today(no particular order)

Shlin28
FactionHeir
Makaikhaan
Beefy187

Its interesting what victory in BR can do...

Anyway sorry for missing out on the last voting round. There is really no excuse apart from watching a few Euro soccer game.

Anyways about the kills. Interesting thing is Shlin and RK gone in the same day. Reading this 'Japanese' book about 'killing each other' which resembles BR. As you know Shlin is the champion of the previous BR game and RK the host

Probably a coincidence but there is a small possibility of the kill done by BR player

Nothing big really. I just thought Ill act like ive been analyzing the game.

____________________________________________________________________________________________________ ________________

Anyways since I broke my original promise of reading through the thread, analyzing hardcore, hunting down the mafia, I will just talk about the four choice offered by W&F

Sarathos, beefy187, FactionHeir, and Makaikhaan.

Sarathos, interesting player. Up till now his been reasonably active, but acting like a usual him as a townie. Ive never seen him as mafia but I don't think its him.

Beefy. Guys cmon. Its my natural habit of being scummy. And I must remind you that almost every single lynch you did to me ended up killing one innocent townie. Assuming that im allowed to suicide, I will suicide rather then getting voted on lynch. So if I get around 5 pms telling me to die I will.

My knowledge on FHs behavior is somewhat limited. Just from observing the last 2 rounds or so, I cannot find him particularly scummy. I do remember a massive FH accusation post somewhere. If I can find that sometime today I might change the vote to FH

makaikhaan: It might be a bad lynch. But if he does happen to be mafia thats really bad for a town. makaikhaan is very talented mafia player and so far the killing pattern suggest that out of the four culprit offered by W&F he is the most likely.

Its a very poor analysis and argument but hell. Thats how I roll.

I was going for lynching Kommodus but I am guessing he is about to get wogged for inactivity. If he does show up then we can talk more.

seamus has been very active and helpful for town. I don't think its a good idea to lynch him just yet. but out of this 6 he is the most suspecious after Makaikhaan for me.

Vote:Makaikhaan

For now until I find more about Seamus or FH

[Privateerkev]

seamus has been very active and helpful for town. I don't think its a good idea to lynch him just yet. but out of this 6 he is the most suspecious after Makaikhaan for me.

If Seamus is a townie, he can keep helping after being lynched.

And Seamus, despite your massive WIFOM, your still the best lynch choice this round. Voting to lynch yourself on D1 is novel, cute, and clever. Doing it on D6 is just scummy.

On the first day, the chances of finding mafia are about nill. But by the 6th day, we have some real suspects. And your original vote this round was quite frankly laughable. Kommodus is basically WoG bait at this point.

[Beefy187]

Yea ok

Unvote: Makaikhaan Vote: Seamus

What PK said

and oh yea I will laugh at my own reasoning

[woad&fangs]

I'm convinced.

Unvote: Kommodus

Vote: Seamus

[discovery1]

BANDWAGON!

Vote:Seamus

[FactionHeir]

Do you think seamus is guilty?

As I wrote a few pages back, I found him to be suspicious. But unless there is a very good reason to vote him or anyone else for that matter, I do like to have some more concrete evidence as the game is rather advanced at this point and each lynch choice must be made carefully.

[Privateerkev]

As I wrote a few pages back, I found him to be suspicious. But unless there is a very good reason to vote him or anyone else for that matter, I do like to have some more concrete evidence as the game is rather advanced at this point and each lynch choice must be made carefully.

concrete evidence?!?

Without a detective reveal, there isn't any concrete evidence.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

Ok,

From the write-up both kills were effected similarly. Up until this point we have had two distinct killers.

One who was:
-impeccably dressed
-wore a fedora and trenchcoat
-was irrepressibly cheerful
-engaged the hapless victim in conversation
-had a thing for cliches...

The second:
-carried a shotgun
-had a broken nose
-drove a black Mercedes
-had a much gloomier outlook (maybe due to the broken nose).

There are now as I see it two possibilities.

1: We lynched the cheerful mafioso. This was Sasaki. Now there is only one mafioso left.
2: The Mafiosi are trying to trick us, and frame Sasaki. Both are still alive, and one is imitating the other.

I'd go with the first option, but I'm not entirely sure.

That said I agree with Sasaki's post that condemns FactionHeir, the trouble is that I'm of the opinion that Sasaki was mafia... Gah!!!

Seamus also seems to be very suspicious atm, but if we get too carried away and bandwagon him, and new evidence against someone comes to light, we may not be able to swing enough votes around in time. Plus Bandwagoning allows the Mafia to hide in the shadows...

Vote: Sarathos

Wherefore art thou Sarathos?

[Beefy187]

Vote: Sarathos

Wherefore art thou Sarathos?

He probably has exam today. But knowing Sarathos he'll show up sometime before the end of the day.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

1: We lynched the cheerful mafioso. This was Sasaki. Now there is only one mafioso left.

The mafia don't have to show it when one of them is lynched. The change in write up isn't evidence of anything.

[woad&fangs]

Yep, in Mafia VII me and CR tried to frame Husar by both using the same killer's description. FactionHeir is doing the same thing to Sasaki.

[Privateerkev]

The mafia don't have to show it when one of them is lynched. The change in write up isn't evidence of anything.

I have to agree with Sasaki here. While I have never played in a GH game before, I do know that Sasaki and I manipulated the write up many times in Taormina to throw people off.

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

I accept this, but its still one possibility. To discount it completely just because its unlikely would be pretty foolish imo.

I'll be back tomorrow morning (my time). Stupid exam period... grumble...