best faction to turtle with?

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At first glance already though, I have a feeling that my worst case scenario would be dealing with a French/Milanese coalition. If those two factions are allied against me, that turns into a major war.

Indeed, bordering the Milanese war factory is never a good thing, since they field very similar city roster except more devastating (or annoying ) crossbows, + it's 2 vs 1 (Milan, Genoa vs. Venice), unless your navy can quickly reinforce from Ragusa. If you ever secure northern Italy it becomes less of a hassle to defend