U.S. Elections 2008: General Elections -- Analysis and Commentary

[Lemur]

Crazed Rabbit, is it so very painful to let go of a talking point? Just move on, man. There are other things you can attack Obama with. Maybe even true things!

[Sasaki Kojiro]

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...S0502/80917076

Indiana Poll:
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%

I didn't even think indiana was in play...

[ICantSpellDawg]

In attempt to talk about issues..........




McCain's health care plan is about opening the market and cutting back on Gov regulations. That has worked so well with the current economy.

If McCain's plan go through I would pay more in tax because of my insurance through work then I would get in a tax break.

Now that is the way to help the American workers who, as McCain said, are the fundamentals of the economy.

Between McCain's health care plan which is a huge step backwards, and his wanting a commision on the economy he will drive this country into the ground.

Obama at least has an economic plan. http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/economyplan

I don't see why McCain's plan would necessarily eliminate employee health care plans for individuals who had them. If he eliminates State or regional plan sale restriction, companies will have more Insurance competing in different risk areas around the U.S. - allowing companies to diversify risk rather than lumping it all into the same small area. Most companies might appreciate the discount and keep less expensive, more efficient plans. A healthy employee means less time off from work and is a draw outright.

It should give individuals the ability to seek insurance plans for themselves that carry over even when you switch jobs (which is a terrible pain in the butt - I have done it 5 times over the past 2 years and have numerous retarded illnesses). We would be receiving the tax credits ourselves which, if we opted out of the company plan should help them cut their cost for our employment (maybe increasing our wages while making industry more competitive).

It sounds like a pretty solid plan. I liked Romney's way better, but my horse lost.

The most important part is breaking down the walls between state plan availability. Obama's plan is decent, but I like the idea of Government serving as an organizer and regulator rather than owner and operator. We want to keep cost down for everybody.

Health Care is a pretty big issue for me, but I find McCain's plan acceptable and not at all scary - fine with the rest of his platform. Obama's victory would give me his health care platform as a consolation gift and I wouldn't complain even though I hate socialized medicine. I do like free medicine, especially with the ominous specter of disability hanging over my head.

[Crazed Rabbit]

No were does it say that Obama lied. Plus the bill talks about "age-appropriate" and how to say know to sexual advances. How would that no help child against sexual predators?

CR your claim has been proven wrong, lets move on.

It doesn't talk about Obama's reaction to the bill. I'm not saying it didn't include stuff about sex predators. But that's not the only thing it includes, which is why Obama was wrong when he said it was just about teaching kids about how to avoid sex predators.

CR

[Big_John]

They should find and prosecute whoever broke in.

good luck.

EDIT: Removed hot linked picture of a uniform crowd. Please host it yourself. BG

[ICantSpellDawg]

good luck.

EDIT: Removed hotlinked picture. BG

They'll find them. They should know - everyone who uses the internet leaves a (digital) paper trail. Hoist by one's own petard, if you will.

Maybe they already have some leads?

[drone]

In attempt to talk about issues..........

User CP->Edit Ignore List->Add m52nickerson.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

[m52nickerson]

It doesn't talk about Obama's reaction to the bill. I'm not saying it didn't include stuff about sex predators. But that's not the only thing it includes, which is why Obama was wrong when he said it was just about teaching kids about how to avoid sex predators.

CR

Teaching young children what is acceptable touching would not help against sexual predators? Sweet Zeus man do they have to spell it out for you?

[KarlXII]

They'll find them. They should know - everyone who uses the internet leaves a (digital) paper trail. Hoist by one's own petard, if you will.

Maybe they already have some leads?

Do you know nothing?

[Big_John]

They'll find them. They should know - everyone who uses the internet leaves a (digital) paper trail. Hoist by one's own petard, if you will.

Maybe they already have some leads?

it's not hard to use a few international loopbacks and internet cafes and such and be untraceable, even for the feds. but it looks like the particular anonymous one(s) responsible for this hack might have been sloppy/amatuer. ctunnel is apparently garbage as far as anonymous proxies go (relatively speaking), for example.

[m52nickerson]

I don't see why McCain's plan would necessarily eliminate employee health care plans for individuals who had them. If he eliminates State or regional plan sale restriction, companies will have more Insurance competing in different risk areas around the U.S. - allowing companies to diversify risk rather than lumping it all into the same small area. Most companies might appreciate the discount and keep less expensive, more efficient plans. A healthy employee means less time off from work and is a draw outright.

It should give individuals the ability to seek insurance plans for themselves that carry over even when you switch jobs (which is a terrible pain in the butt - I have done it 5 times over the past 2 years and have numerous retarded illnesses). We would be receiving the tax credits ourselves which, if we opted out of the company plan should help them cut their cost for our employment (maybe increasing our wages while making industry more competitive).

It sounds like a pretty solid plan. I liked Romney's way better, but my horse lost.

The most important part is breaking down the walls between state plan availability. Obama's plan is decent, but I like the idea of Government serving as an organizer and regulator rather than owner and operator. We want to keep cost down for everybody.

Health Care is a pretty big issue for me, but I find McCain's plan acceptable and not at all scary - fine with the rest of his platform. Obama's victory would give me his health care platform as a consolation gift and I wouldn't complain even though I hate socialized medicine. I do like free medicine, especially with the ominous specter of disability hanging over my head.

Did you miss this https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...73#post2016673

I might not lose my plan, but who do you think will pay the taxes on that plan?

Just because you open the market does not mean it will drive down cost.

Not only that but the tax credit for opting out is a doubled edged sword. It gives companies not reason to look for better deals. The more people opt out the less money they spend.

As far as risk groups, the areas that have lower premiums now will see a rise in their rates to cover those in higher risk areas.

Again, less regulation is not always a good thing, look at the economy. Regulations ans safe guards were removed and now we are in quit a mess.

[ICantSpellDawg]

it's not hard to use a few international loopbacks and internet cafes and such and be untraceable, even for the feds. but it looks like the particular anonymous one(s) responsible for this hack might have been sloppy/amatuer. ctunnel is apparently garbage as far as anonymous proxies go (relatively speaking), for example.

How hard is it to hack a yahoo account?

[KarlXII]

How hard is it to hack a yahoo account?

They're /b/tards....

[Big_John]

How hard is it to hack a yahoo account?

you can do it in your sleep.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Did you miss this https://forums.totalwar.org/vb/showt...73#post2016673

I might not lose my plan, but who do you think will pay the taxes on that plan?

Just because you open the market does not mean it will drive down cost.

Not only that but the tax credit for opting out is a doubled edged sword. It gives companies not reason to look for better deals. The more people opt out the less money they spend.

As far as risk groups, the areas that have lower premiums now will see a rise in their rates to cover those in higher risk areas.

Again, less regulation is not always a good thing, look at the economy. Regulations ans safe guards were removed and now we are in quit a mess.

What has them carrying the plans now? The same thing applies. Do you think that the tax credit makes companies buy plans? It isn't a great trade off as is - they do it for the employee to make people want to work and stay at the job. If their rates were to lower for a better plan - they would be paying less in the long run and the taxes would be passed on partially to the employee.

Tax breaks are never as good a deal as people make them seem. Companys don't do perks for their immediate financial gain - that is absurd - rather it is part of a strategic plan to make employees like them, work hard and stay competitive. To be frank - if individuals could afford their own plans (and knew what procedures cost) and business didn't have to worry about health care - we'd all be better off.

[m52nickerson]

What has them carrying the plans now? The same thing applies. Do you think that the tax credit makes companies buy plans? It isn't a great trade off as is - they do it for the employee to make people want to work and stay at the job. If their rates were to lower for a better plan - they would be paying less in the long run and the taxes would be passed on partially to the employee.

Tax breaks are never as good a deal as people make them seem. Companys don't do perks for their immediate financial gain - that is absurd - rather it is part of a strategic plan to make employees like them, work hard and stay competitive. To be frank - if individuals could afford their own plans (and knew what procedures cost) and business didn't have to worry about health care - we'd all be better off.

So the competition within states between health care plans is not enough to keep costs low, but across state lines will?

The only part the may reduce cost is the tax credit, which if enough people take that it will kill company based plans because their numbers will shrink. The less people on the plan the more expensive. Plus, unless the government keeps upping the tax credit to keep up with the rise in plan costs, I have yet to see them come down, people will slowly be priced out of their plans with nothing to fall back on.

Again see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/op...em&oref=slogin

[Crazed Rabbit]

Teaching young children what is acceptable touching would not help against sexual predators?

I didn't say that. Care to cease the hyperventilating?

CR

[ICantSpellDawg]

So the competition within states between health care plans is not enough to keep costs low, but across state lines will?

The only part the may reduce cost is the tax credit, which if enough people take that it will kill company based plans because their numbers will shrink. The less people on the plan the more expensive. Plus, unless the government keeps upping the tax credit to keep up with the rise in plan costs, I have yet to see them come down, people will slowly be priced out of their plans with nothing to fall back on.

Again see http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/16/op...em&oref=slogin

Why are you re-posting that article? I've read it and I disagree with the doom saying. Some insurance companies do the job better than others and in some states (like NY) private health care is failing big time while in other states (like Il) they are doing OK. It isn't a cure all - labels and receipts for the recipient of care would be a good thing too, but I fail to see why companies who currently have employer plans would ditch them because there is a tax, especially if the premiums go down. They literally use it as a package plan to pay less in real wages to employees by providing a service that can't be found elsewhere in the form of major medical at a subsidized price. I don't see why it would be any less intruiguing as an option.

Look at Texas after the Hurricane. Texan insurance companies might have been too exposed in that State and may be feeling the hurt now. If they diversified their risk and lowered the likelihood of a regional health problem by opening a market in other areas of the country, prices should go down in turn. Less risk, lower premium - higher risk, higher premium.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Oh, I'm just another bitter ex-McCain supporter. There are lots of us. I think maybe it's the lies that make us mean.

Thank you Lemur, for those article links.

[CountArach]

http://www.indystar.com/apps/pbcs.dl...S0502/80917076

Indiana Poll:
Obama: 47%
McCain: 44%

I didn't even think indiana was in play...

It is probably close to in play. If Obama is winning Indiana he won't need its electoral votes because he would surely be winning in Colorado, New Mexico and Virginia. Indiana has been trending a few points closer than usual, but really it is still McCain's by 4-5 points.

Alright there are about 30 state-level polls released today (25 from American Research Group). But first, the daily tracking (2 of the three days used for each poll are since the Wall Street collapse):
DailyKos - Obama 48/McCain 44
Diageo/Hotline - Obama 45/McCain 42
Gallup - Obama 47/McCain 45
Rassmussen - McCain 48/Obama 47
I suspect that Gallup has shifted its partisan identification numbers back to something closer to normal.

So here are the state polling released today, shamelessly stolen from FiveThirtyEight (The value "weight" is a measure of how reliable they are):

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Some of the most interesting results come from:
Colorado, McCain +2 - a shift of a couple of points in his direction.
Florida, Obama +4 - The first Florida poll he has led in for quite some time.
Illinois, Obama +6 - Much closer than it should be. Another couple of polls would be needed here to confirm it.
Indiana, McCain +5 - See my point to Sasaki above.
Louisiana, McCain +7 - I suspect that this may have tightened to this level after the recent Hurricanes, which may remind residents of the mismanagement and FEMA incompetence. I would expect it to revert back to a stronger McCain state as the election nears.
Montana, McCain +2 - A state to watch that has been seriously under polled.
North Carolina, McCain +1/+11 - The truth is probably closer to the +11, after a few polls in the last couple of weeks showed McCain +20ish.
Nevada, McCain +3 - This is my feeling of about where Nevada should be.
Ohio, McCain +4, Obama +2 - The +4 poll was taken before the Wall Street collapse, so that might have helped Obama's Blue Collar vote,w hich would explain the swing to him in the CNN poll. The truth is probably McCain by a point or 2.
Oregon, McCain +4 - Way closer than it should be.
Virginia, McCain +9, Obama +2 - Virginia is way too close to call this year. My gut feeling is a statistical tie that is currently a point to McCain but swinging back to Obama.
Wisconsin, Obama +4/+2 - I really didn't expect this. I would've thought that Wisconsin was out of play, and it still probably is, but it really has tightened a lot.
West Virginia, McCain +4 - The first poll here in a while and surprisingly close. However, Obama struggled a lot in Appalachia during the Primaries, perhaps due to race and I think this may continue to hurt him here.

So that's what I can tell you from my knowledge. Take it for whatever you think it is worth.

[Louis VI the Fat]

My feelings about McCain:

McCain isn't holding up very well. Now I am not a natural Republican. But I appreciated McCain when he was still his own man. Straight talking, principled. A man who sincerely wants to serve his country, and has paid a high price for it in his life. I do not have a natural antipathy to him, like I do with the likes of Bush or Palin.

I thought that in a mud-slinging contest, Obama would be the one with the most at stake, the one most likely to tarnish his reputation and lose his biggest selling point. I was so wrong. It is McCain who is. He's been selling out, losing his unique selling point in the process. This is no longer the real McCoyn.

Both candidates have by now made it abundantly clear that they are willing and capable of playing every Washingtonian dirty trick, and that they are willing to make policy and principle subordinate to political expediency. I don't blame them for it, I am just surprised at the result.
When stripped of his 'Washington outsider, bringing change' image, Obama still looks like what he is: an arrogant man with burning personal ambition, an aspiring, if gifted, politician, with a willingness to learn and adapt.
McCain, when stripped of his 'Washington outsider, bringing change' image, looks...well, like what really? McCain is not a natural born politician. He's about bringing his principles and sense of duty to Washington. What's left then, when he sells these out? He looks redundant.

Obama has lost his gimmick of clean hope and change in the mud. McCain has lost his soul, betraying his own legacy.


Then there is Palin. The Republicans may be gleeing over how the election has turned into an Obama v Palin contest. But how does this reflect on their main candidate? McCain isn't the energising one, the man with ideas, the focus of attention. What for a few weeks must be tremendous fun for emo-cons - our second in line running to the other party's main candidate! - must lead, upon sober reflection, to a bitter conclusion: apparently, their main candidate is lacking in magnetism and sparkling ideas.


In Biden, Obama has a VP that butresses him, who projects a sense of experience and reliability. McCain, and this is the painful bit, did not gamble and lose in picking Palin. McCain gambled, and won. And won more than he bargained for. Palin is not a liability to his campaign. It's much worse than that. Instead, McCain has manouvered himself into a position where he himself is now a side-show to her campaign. It makes him look old and redundant.


After a year of this election cycle, I think I've run full circle. My feelings about McCain are back where they started: I think McCain missed his moment with destiny. His moment was in 2000. His moment has passed.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Excellent post, Louis, and in concert with my own journey to confusion.

Were I an American citizen, I may well have voted for Senator McCain right up until he chose Governor Palin. I could see the myriad benefits of having a reasonable, honourable and often bipartisan Republican as president - with a Democrat Congress chastened enough by losing the White House from a certainty position to work with him.

Sadly, he has self-destructed with the manner of his campaign and the choice of a woman whose policy positions are much too close to President Bush. To remotely contemplate her as president is to know real fear. To witness his ambition and willingness to slander and lie - and continue the lie, much in the way of the current administration (I swear the real answer to "what is the Bush Doctrine?" may be that if one repeats lies often enough, enough people will believe them to stay in power) - is to despair that the United States cannot be healed.

Similarly Obama, whilst an excellent thinker and speaker, has not been able to employ that inspirational ability to enthuse his countrymen or to formulate more than platitudes. Worse, he cannot seem to handle detail and policy. I suspect this election would be over if Bill Clinton and his mantra, "It's the economy, stupid" were shaping it. He also wallows eagerly in the mud he pretends to eschew. Obama may be a fine strategist, and an excellent people manager, but he's going to have to communicate some real policy and very soon, to have my support (not that he cares about my support any more than McCain).

I suspect I was wrong, and should have agreed with you about Senator Clinton. A Clinton-Obama ticket would have been both inspirational and hard-headed. She would of course, brought utter division and hatred into every fibre of the United States soul, but on current evidence from this thread and other sources, that soul is beyond repair anyway. If the two most centrist, amenable and potentially co-operative candidates can do no more than this bitter, wicked and destructive campaign, there is no hope, audacious or not.

I wish the old method of choosing a vice-president were still extant - the loser of the election appointed to the post. That would limit the hostility of the campaign (since both candidates would have to serve together) and in this case, a McCain presidency with an Obama vice-presidency - minus the precursor beastliness - might just be the best outcome.

As it is, we the governed but unrepresented, can merely expectorate a plague on both their houses.

[KukriKhan]

As it is, we the governed but unrepresented, can merely expectorate a plague on both their houses.

On the other hand, if that feeling/thought is sincerely felt/held, I can see where watching this particular sausage being made must be frustrating.

Let me assure you, for all the whoopla we're currently up to our knees in, there will certainly be more to come. Yet America will muddle through, and the collective conciousness, expressed via the polls and electoral college, will pick the right guy for the top office.

And I agree: returning to the original plan (top vote-getter = POTUS, 2nd top vote-getter = VP) would be good for us/U.S. It would certainly put the ka-bosh on the 2-party mud-slinging thingee quickly.

[Banquo's Ghost]

On the other hand, if that feeling/thought is sincerely felt/held, I can see where watching this particular sausage being made must be frustrating.

I don't want anyone to get the impression that this sense of disappointment is only felt about the US - it's just that the mendacious pygmies you get to elect actually have far more effect on my life than the amoral muppets I get to vote for.

Let me assure you, for all the whoopla we're currently up to our knees in, there will certainly be more to come. Yet America will muddle through, and the collective conciousness, expressed via the polls and electoral college, will pick the right guy for the top office.

I admire your optimism. Unfortunately yon collective consciousness has massively failed its last two tests, hasn't it?

[ICantSpellDawg]

I don't want anyone to get the impression that this sense of disappointment is only felt about the US - it's just that the mendacious pygmies you get to elect actually have far more effect on my life than the amoral muppets I get to vote for.

Our leaders have more of an effect over your life? Do you just mean economically?

Please explain how you have decided this.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

So that's what I can tell you from my knowledge. Take it for whatever you think it is worth.

My feeling is that Obama will win the kerry states + iowa and new mexico. Colorado and Virginia seem to be his best chance for a winning state.

Btw tuffstuff, palin's favorability rating has been tanking lately...down 10-15 points. I guess when people get to know her they don't like what they see.

[KukriKhan]

I admire your optimism. Unfortunately yon collective consciousness has massively failed its last two tests, hasn't it?

I'd grant a failure in 2000, though the opposition was no better - hoodwinked, is what we were, in my opinion. 2004 was a "don't change horses in the middle of a stream" thing, I think; the war(s) and all. That Bush & Co. misread that "He's a Doofus, but he's our Doofus" vote as a mandate to continue regrettable policies, well, we're about to fix that this year, one way (or candidate) or another.

My big take-away since 9-11 is: in an effort to "do something; anything!" in response to that dreadful day (since they'd failed to prevent it, or even imagine it), they became suddenly willing to squander every resource america could lay claim to: lives, money, alliances, reputation, individual freedoms, transportation, banking, US independence...

So, the next guy's task will be: getting that stuff back, and quickly. I'm currently persuaded that both the main candidates want to do that, or to at least cause no further harm. I'm not totally convinced which to bet on as being the fella who can actually DO it.

By Holloween, I'll have to decide.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Our leaders have more of an effect over your life? Do you just mean economically?

Please explain how you have decided this.

Well, economically is the main effect, and the most important to people everywhere. The United States sets the prevailing standards and influences disproportionately the World Trade talks and associated organs, as well as policy decisions that have led to events like this banking crisis.

Politically, the erosion of civil liberties and disregard for international law and human rights that the recent administration has embarked on has led to copycat legislation across the globe, which affects me in my personal area of interest. I also pay taxes to the United Kingdom government, so their adherence to administration policy means I have to pay for crazed adventures like Iraq. More positively, previous administrations' support for both Irish independence and eventually for the Northern Ireland Peace Process made an enormous difference to my island's future.

Adversely, unthinking support for IRA fund-raising enabled quite a few hairy eejits to shoot at me a lot in my youth.

[Sasaki Kojiro]

The Pain in Spain falls mainly on McCain

During an interview in Miami earlier this week with Spanish-language station Union Radio, a reporter asked McCain whether, if elected, he would receive Zapatero in the White House. McCain answered, "Honestly, I have to analyze our relationships, situations, and priorities, but I can assure you that I will establish closer relationships with our friends, and I will stand up to those who want to harm the United States."

Ouch. The question about Zapatero, clearly framed by the reporter as a question about Spain, came after inquiries on Venezuela, Bolivia, and Cuba. As a result, much of the Spanish press has decided that the Republican candidate, who hails himself as the experienced foreign policy choice in this election, confused Spain — a NATO member and key ally in the fight against terrorism — with one of those troublesome Latin American states.

I wonder what the RNC's "Joe Biden Gaffe Counter" is up to? Was almost 2 weeks the last time I checked...

[ICantSpellDawg]

The Pain in Spain falls mainly on McCain




I wonder what the RNC's "Joe Biden Gaffe Counter" is up to? Was almost 2 weeks the last time I checked...

I don't see how his answer led the author to believe that he thought Zapaterro was a South American leader. He gave a generic answer, stating that if Zapaterro is a friend he is invited, if he is not, he is not.

Spain under Zapaterro has been questionable. He is a die-hard anti-american socialist. His first order of business was to rip Spanish troops out of Iraq.

They also snub their noses at our requests to block arms deals to Venezuela.

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4609696.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/americas/4395873.stm

I would think twice about any invites. Maybe throw a few more troops into Afghanistan as a war rather than a "peacekeeping operation"?