Re: Civil War in Libya
I'm rooting for no one. It is not my fight.Originally Posted by tibilicus
The extent of the folly in which many in the West engaged in is worth pointing out. You can see it in this thread. People with no understanding of the situation on the ground declared the regime all but dead and scoffed at suggestions otherwise, when it should have been clear that what the rebels had could not be accurately described as a military force. Heady talk of a grand march on Tripoli and Hitler in his bunker seem but a distant memory at this point.
The Guardian finally speaks in more sobering, realistic terms.
At the beating heart of the uprising, in Benghazi, Libya's rebels are trying to kickstart a revolution that has stalled less than halfway to the capital. Throughout the sacked city that spawned the revolt, the euphoria of victory is steadily becoming a distant memory. Routine has set into a place that two weeks ago was flush with hope and opportunity. After ousting a dictator of 42 years in less than a weekend, anything seemed possible here. For a while.
Shops are now open, streets are teeming and people are again talking about the grind of daily life. Heady predictions of a glorious march to Tripoli have been silenced.
"We didn't ask to be in this position," said Salwa Bugaigis, a leading member of Benghazi's organising committee, now trying to run the town's civil affairs. "I've said that since the beginning. I was one of the first protesters outside the courthouse. Then they attacked us. And then the revolution came. We are running something that we were not prepared for."
Benghazi's rebels were clearly not prepared for another surprise – Colonel Muammar Gaddafi's ability to rally his supporters and mount an effective rear-guard action that has stopped the revolution in its tracks, at least for now.
A week is a long time in Libya's revolution. Seven days ago the narrative was of a rebel advance almost to Colonel Gaddafi's doorstep. The town of Zawiyah — reached by journalists last Sunday – was in the hands of the opposition, which had little more than two ancient tanks, a handful of armoured cars and a pair of anti-aircraft guns.
In reality, the story of "the advance" was always something of an illusion, more real on paper than on the ground. True, the opposition holds much of the east, but the towns that have been ticked off one by one in the country's west and around the capital have been a very different issue — Zawiyah foremost among them.
For these are places that have not so much been captured by an opposition motoring on Tripoli but have fallen to the part of the population opposing Gaddafi.
And while they have been presented as part of a joined-up whole, in the west these opposition centres have been largely isolated from events in the east, unable to be reinforced or resupplied from the main effort in and around Benghazi.Passing through Zawiyah in the middle of last week, it was clear a new balance of power was emerging. While last Sunday the checkpoints leading towards the city had been armoured cars and pickups, by Wednesday modern tanks, a dozen belonging to the Khamis brigade commanded by Gaddafi's son of the same name, were sitting at junctions outside the town.
Ten kilometres or so behind them was another worrying development for the 200 or so fighters within Zawiyah. First six, then eight, BM-21 missile launchers appeared in a tree-fringed meadow, their rockets pointing towards the town.
When the battle did come in earnest, it appears that those in the town were caught by surprise. For instead of attacking along the main road from the roundabout, close to the town's Martyrs Square, the government forces came from the west, through the outlying area of Harsha, catching the rebels by surprise and killing their commander early on in the fighting.
A teacher in the town said that Zawiyah was now under siege from pro-Gaddafi forces. "The square is surrounded. There is smoke and many fires. They are firing at the houses around the square. Snipers are firing at anyone who moves. My friends and cousins are in the square fighting. There are explosions. Anyone who tries to go to the square is being killed."
Libyan rebels said yesterday afternoon that they had repelled the initial attack by Gaddafi's forces. "They entered Zawiyah at six in the morning with heavy forces, hundreds of soldiers with tanks. Our people fought back … We have won for now and civilians are gathering in the square," said Youssef Shagan, the rebel force spokesman in Zawiyah.
However, another rebel fighter said that Gaddafi's forces were regrouping at the town's entrance. "Gaddafi will never enter this city," said the rebel, who gave his name as Ibrahim. "He will never set foot here. The only way for him to enter the city is when we are all dead. He has to kill us all to control the city."
Earlier, the Libyan leader's forces had fired high-explosive rounds in central streets and dragged people from their homes. There were reports of many casualties among civilians, rebels and soldiers.
The fluctuating fortunes of the two sides, typified in the bloody fights for Zawiyah and the sharp, chaotic battles for towns such as Misrata and Brega, suggest Libya's conflict may endure for weeks, or even months, as neither side is able to muster enough military power to decisively defeat the other.
The opposition, despite its early, bullish pronouncements about marching on Tripoli, lacks any effective air cover, leaving it vulnerable to those in the Libyan air force still loyal to Gaddafi.Yesterday much of what was on show in Benghazi still spoke of revolution and victory. Stirring hymns, recorded in the wake of the fall of the city, blared out on constant rotation.
Independence flags that were last flown in the city 42 years ago are flying again, and local children shout their defiance as they run traffic intersections that not long ago were the sole domain of Gaddafi loyalists.
But noticeably absent was the gung-ho talk evident further along the highway where the fighting has been at its most intense. Instead people were focusing on more mundane things, like establishing a functional society and finding food. They anticipate being in for the long haul. Locals were pragmatic, not revolutionary.
"We have a lot to do here," said Fatima Marouf, as she bought meat, the first time she had left her house in a fortnight. "If we get this city working, then the rest may happen itself."
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