Civil War in Libya

[PanzerJaeger]

No, I really don't. I'm okay with arming and/or feeding the Libyan rebels, but getting into a third Muslim war is too much for my lemurish sensibities. This is not our fight. This is not our cause. This is not worth sacrificing a single airman, sailor or marine. I like this idea much better:

Yes, yes, and yes. Have we learned nothing from the last decade? This is incredibly shortsighted, hilariously hypocritical (Bahrain, anyone? How about the Ivory Coast?), and sets a very dangerous precedent.

I had developed a genuine respect for Obama's pragmatism in the face of the same drumbeat that fooled so many of us into supporting the liberation of Iraq. I wonder what happened.

it's not a waste of money when the indigenous public is actually providing the bulk of the ground force.

That is what makes the whole thing so ridiculous. That rebel ground force proved itself completely incompetent in the face of a poorly led, small, dilapidated, Soviet-era military force. Do you really think they'll be able to take Tripoli? If Gadaffi is going to be removed, the West will have to do nearly all the heavy lifting.

Does it even matter what the costs are? whining about it seems rather superfluous when the US is already deep in debt.

Sure. The US is already drowning in debt, why not spend some more on a distant foreign conflict that has nothing to do with us? Just throw it on the pile.

[Noncommunist]

That is what makes the whole thing so ridiculous. That rebel ground force proved itself completely incompetent in the face of a poorly led, small, dilapidated, Soviet-era military force. Do you really think they'll be able to take Tripoli? If Gadaffi is going to be removed, the West will have to do nearly all the heavy lifting.

Considering they had less arms and equipment, I'd say taking a few cities in the beginning was pretty impressive. That and they did manage to hold off Gadaffi's forces for a while in several cities. Granted, they had the defensive advantage of a city but still, they were definitely outgunned in those battles. And once we begin removing Gadaffi's advantages, I could see the rebels carrying out serious advances as well as more of Gadaffi's troops defecting.

[CBR]

Hmm lets see:

Getting involved with a regime change in a Islamic country but having other Islamic countries urging the West to do it: check
Using UN SC this time: check
This time no fantastic tales of why to do it and most can see why it needs to be done ASAP: check
An apparent political opposition within the country, although poorly armed: check

I'd say some lessons have been learned.

I have no idea if it will be enough but I admit I'm a sucker for humanitarian bombing.

[Banquo's Ghost]

Astounding. Another stupid war that will almost certainly lead to civilian deaths (sorry, collateral damage) and a completely unpredictable outcome that we will be paying for in blood and treasure for years more.

Even more "amusing" was the endless parroting by Western diplomats that the request had come from the Arab League.

Algeria Bahrain Comoros Djibouti
Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait
Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco
Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia
Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia
United Arab Emirates Yemen

Imposing list of heroic democracies there, all lining up to put their pilots on the line.

[Sarmatian]

Well, several last western intervention have been spotless and they have proved that west can keep the peace and ensure human rights are respected. Viva la democracion!

[a completely inoffensive name]

That is what makes the whole thing so ridiculous. That rebel ground force proved itself completely incompetent in the face of a poorly led, small, dilapidated, Soviet-era military force. Do you really think they'll be able to take Tripoli? If Gadaffi is going to be removed, the West will have to do nearly all the heavy lifting.

The rebels seem to do just fine when there isn't tanks and airships bearing down on them. Now that the air component is in their (rebels) hands, I think it is too early to say what will happen now. It has yet been a day since the resolution, if the rebels new energy and momentum fail, then they are doomed and we should pull the plug on the operation. If Gaddaffi finds himself in trouble without new mercs coming in (by air at least) and suffers a few strategic bombs of some of his tanks (which you have admitted is small, so there isn't many to destroy), well I think we should continue doing what the western world has been doing so far and play it by ear.

I'm don't want to let the rebels have a fair chance taken away from them because we didn't feel like stopping hordes of foreigners packing guns from influencing the turn out (darn Germans/Prussians almost ruined my country's revolution). If the rebels are screwed, then this will be over in a month, if not then we did the right thing by helping them achieve their dictatorship. As long as we don't put boots on the ground, I am fine with how it is right now.

[al Roumi]

Hipocritical the decision to intercede in Libya -but not Bahrain, Cote D'Ivoire or elsewhere, may be. However, I'm glad that the west IS protecting civilians (the primary condition of the UNSCR) and supporting the opposition -the inevitable consequence of removing the mechanisms of governance (tanks, artillery) of Qadhafi's government.

For reference, the media reporting on the actual conflict has been wide of the mark. Yesterday was the first time that ex army units were deployed (by the opposition) against their former colleagues. Hence the successes if Brega and Ajdabiya reported yesterday.

Misurata (very close to Tripoli) has held out for weeks, how does anyone really think Benghazi (hundreds of miles away from Tripoli) will/would fall quickly?

[Ronin]

The rebels seem to do just fine when there isn't tanks and airships bearing down on them. Now that the air component is in their (rebels) hands, I think it is too early to say what will happen now. It has yet been a day since the resolution, if the rebels new energy and momentum fail, then they are doomed and we should pull the plug on the operation. If Gaddaffi finds himself in trouble without new mercs coming in (by air at least) and suffers a few strategic bombs of some of his tanks (which you have admitted is small, so there isn't many to destroy), well I think we should continue doing what the western world has been doing so far and play it by ear.

So they are doing fine...as long as the other side doesn´t use it's forces.....now that's quite an achievement.

I'm don't want to let the rebels have a fair chance taken away from them because we didn't feel like stopping hordes of foreigners packing guns from influencing the turn out (darn Germans/Prussians almost ruined my country's revolution). If the rebels are screwed, then this will be over in a month, if not then we did the right thing by helping them achieve their dictatorship. As long as we don't put boots on the ground, I am fine with how it is right now.

what the hell is a fair chance in a war setting?....war is not a game of cricket...."fair" in war means you make the other guy die and your guys come back in one piece.

[Viking]

Ceasefire supposedly declared by the regime. The UN resolution is not about toppling the regime, so if the government tanks and rocket launchers just lurk a bit beyond the front line, there's no real mandate to destroy them, I guess. A new stalemate now?

Anyway, interesting to see that neither Russia nor China put down a veto.

[TinCow]

Ceasefire supposedly declared by the regime. The UN resolution is not about toppling the regime, so if the government tanks and rocket launchers just lurk a bit beyond the front line, there's no real mandate to destroy them, I guess. A new stalemate now?

Definitely won't be a stalemate. The UN resolution covers all of Libya. That means that people inside Gadaffi-controlled cities will be covered by it as well. If they start to protest again and are shot at, the bombing will start. If they start to protest again and Gadaffi does not interfere, the protests will grow and eventually the regime will fall. I do not see a way out for Gadaffi anymore, it's only a question of how many more Libyans are going to die before he leaves or is killed.

[PanzerJaeger]

At Thursday morning's hearing before the Senate Armed Services Committee, Air Force Chief of Staff Norton Schwartz said that Qaddafi's forces had reestablished control over large swaths of territory and that the Libyan leader had tens of planes and hundreds of helicopters in use.

He called the plan to impose a no-fly zone in a few days "overly optimistic" and said "it would take upwards of a week."

Schwartz was also clear that while the U.S. military can impose a no-fly zone, that's not likely to stop Qaddafi all by itself. He also noted that to do so effectively might require diverting some resources from the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan.

"The question is, is a no-fly zone the last step or is it the first step?" Schwartz said.
Asked by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) whether a no-fly zone could turn the momentum, Scwartz replied, "A no-fly zone, sir, would not be sufficient."

Awesome.

But Obama lost longtime supporter Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN) who said in Thursday morning's hearing with Burns that any military intervention in Libya should require a formal declaration of war by the U.S. Congress.

Lugar also opposes military intervention in Libya on the grounds that the nation can't afford it at a time of deep fiscal debt and called on Obama to explain why attacking Libya is in America's national interest. The humanitarian argument just isn't enough, he said.

"We would not like to stand by and see people being shot, but the same argument could be made in Bahrain at present and perhaps in Yemen, so if you have a civil war it's very likely people are going to be out for each other," Lugar told The Cable in an interview. "This debate cannot be totally divorced from the realities of what are the contending issues right here and now."

Yes, will the bombing of Yemen commence before or after we regime-change the hell out of Bahrain? The Ivory Coast is full of black africans, so we know they'll be at the bottom of the list for Western intervention.

[drone]

Haven't looked into the logistics closely, but I'm assuming the no-fly zone will be enforced mainly from carriers, at least at the start. What nearby land bases can the US stage fighters, attack planes, tankers, and AWACS out of? Are we going to run everything from Incirlik and Akrotiri, or do we rent space closer?

And on a completely unrelated note, why is the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs a Navy man when we are currently involved in 2 Asian land wars?

[HoreTore]

Awesome.
Yes, will the bombing of Yemen commence before or after we regime-change the hell out of Bahrain? The Ivory Coast is full of black africans, so we know they'll be at the bottom of the list for Western intervention.

The Ivory Coast is also full of 10.000 UN troops.

Who, I might add, have been involved in the violence, unlike what happened in Rwanda, with 2 casaulties so far(there have been around 50 deaths on each side so far).

[a completely inoffensive name]

So they are doing fine...as long as the other side doesn´t use it's forces.....now that's quite an achievement.

Well, considering they rapidly seemed to be winning the war two weeks ago and took (and have held) the second largest city...it seems to me that it is only because of Gaddafi's spending spree for foreign mercs and equipment that he has been pushing them back. My point is that when it was army vs rebels rebels held their own. Now that its army, mercs, tanks, aircraft vs rebels, of course they are going to do badly. I don't mind evening the playing field a bit and actually seeing this civil war consist of Libyans vs Libyans.

what the hell is a fair chance in a war setting?....war is not a game of cricket...."fair" in war means you make the other guy die and your guys come back in one piece.

Libyan's should be fighting the Libyan government and the Libyan army for whatever causes they are fighting for, not hordes of european and south african mercs. If it was up to me, I would have told Saudi Arabia to get the **** out of Bahrain and let the gov/army of Bahrain handle its own citizens. I guess I misspoke when I said "fair". I just want self determination of a people to be determined by its actual people, not money. If the rebels are disorganized and fail hard, fine. If the only reason they lose is because we didn't stop the rich king pin from hiring armies from across the world to do his bidding for him, that's ******** imo.


I get it, people are pissed we are getting involved in the middle east again. We are spending money on arabs again and we are committing soldiers to the middle east again. But like I said earlier, this is not Iraq or Afghanistan as long as we hold to the UN resolution and not send in ground troops. If the rebels fail, then that is it. And either they will fail within a month, or they will kill gaddafi by the end of april.

[PanzerJaeger]

If the rebels fail, then that is it. And either they will fail within a month, or they will kill gaddafi by the end of april.

Actually, with the way the resolution is worded, if Gadaffi is smart he could retain control of much of the country, including the vital oil ports, while the West is left to perpetually insure the security of small enclaves around Benghazi and Misurata - much like the situation with the Kurds in Iraq, which lasted more than a decade and only stopped with the invasion.

I don't even believe it authorizes direct attacks against Gadaffi or his command and control apparatus.

[Brenus]

“I don't even believe it authorizes direct attacks against Gadaffi or his command and control apparatus.”
It depends how you read the small prints. There is something like “take all appropriate measures bla bla bla”.

Then, as shown in Kosovo, this is just the start. It will be up to the implementing Countries to decide what are these measures.

Remember that Kosovo was part of Serbia even in the cease-fire agreement…

First you’ve got the paper then you change the goal posts.

Well, in order to be able to implement a deny Fly zone, you have to secure the Air Space, so to destroy all possibilities for the side on which this Deny Zone is imposed to defend itself.
So you have to destroy, Radar Stations, AA weapons as ZSU Shilka, SAM and others command posts. And de facto, you can do this with ground troops, e.g. light commando heliported let’s say from Chad, or even ground raids as the French did when Libya was a problem in northern Chad. So, the ground intervention is still in the Deny Fly resolution.
Perhaps we can do it as well from Tunisia as the French have a military agreement with this country, depending on our good (or not so thanks to Sarkozy’s stupid foreign politic) relations with the new administration. I supposed that Tunisia would be happy to be free from this neighbour, especially as last time they try something, Gadaffi sent some mercenaries to help the now fallen dictator…
But then you have to stop them to rebuild. So well, you can keep the troops or give the position to the rebels (legitimate government for the French).

Again, look at Serbia. NATO legitimated the attack on the Serbian TV saying it was part of the Milosevic Propaganda Machine so part of the military Machine.
So, from pure military hardware, you can extend the concept to all what helps or supports or participates (even indirectly) to every thing you want.

[Samurai Waki]

looks like Gaddafi decided to go out Tony Montana style.

I'm not surprised to be honest... he has a massive ego.

[Prince Cobra]

Obama played his diplomatic cards very well. I still have not read the resolution but as far as I could grasp it, it gives the consent of the UN to legally interfere in Libya. It was very wise to exclude ground invasion (just look what happens in Afghanistan and Iraq now) and to attract Arabian allies in the game. Whilst the Gaddafi aviation is not such a big threat, the international aviation above the rebels is a serious blow for the land forces Gaddafi (I agree with Brenus here). It certainly could turn out to be decisive in the struggle between the rebels and Gaddafi. Of course, the land forces of the rebels should win their regime change. The population of Tripoli and other cities may wave the banner of the rebellion again as the grip of the Coloner weakens.

I have never been enthusiasthic about international campaigns in souvereign countries but I think Gaddafi went a bit too far so I can't say anything against this campaign. Let's hope it will be the lesser of the evils.

[Ice]

Yes, yes, and yes. Have we learned nothing from the last decade? This is incredibly shortsighted, hilariously hypocritical (Bahrain, anyone? How about the Ivory Coast?), and sets a very dangerous precedent.

I had developed a genuine respect for Obama's pragmatism in the face of the same drumbeat that fooled so many of us into supporting the liberation of Iraq. I wonder what happened.



That is what makes the whole thing so ridiculous. That rebel ground force proved itself completely incompetent in the face of a poorly led, small, dilapidated, Soviet-era military force. Do you really think they'll be able to take Tripoli? If Gadaffi is going to be removed, the West will have to do nearly all the heavy lifting.



Sure. The US is already drowning in debt, why not spend some more on a distant foreign conflict that has nothing to do with us? Just throw it on the pile.

yes

Astounding. Another stupid war that will almost certainly lead to civilian deaths (sorry, collateral damage) and a completely unpredictable outcome that we will be paying for in blood and treasure for years more.

Even more "amusing" was the endless parroting by Western diplomats that the request had come from the Arab League.

Algeria Bahrain Comoros Djibouti
Egypt Iraq Jordan Kuwait
Lebanon Libya Mauritania Morocco
Oman Palestine Qatar Saudi Arabia
Somalia Sudan Syria Tunisia
United Arab Emirates Yemen

Imposing list of heroic democracies there, all lining up to put their pilots on the line.

yes

Sigh... when will we learn