Euro Area

[Furunculus]

I'm not suggesting anyone should be railroaded into anything and a recapitalisation of German banks by the German government hardly counts as illegitimate if it's enacted by their democratically elected government. My point is that government should act responsibly in putting the real facts of the matter to their people so that everyone can make an informed decision. As opposed to the current situation where policymakers are basically talking nonsense. Isn't the official position still that Greece is solvent?

if 'saving' the euro is limited to nations recapitalising their banks then fine.......... but it isn't.

[phonicsmonkey]

if 'saving' the euro is limited to nations recapitalising their banks then fine.......... but it isn't.

in the short term it is (at least according to the Economist).

In the longer term it means something else and I agree with you that there is little to no public support for further integration at this point.

Still, better to ride out the short term dangers and make longer-term decisions when things are more stable, in my view.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

in the short term it is (at least according to the Economist).

In the longer term it means something else and I agree with you that there is little to no public support for further integration at this point.

Still, better to ride out the short term dangers and make longer-term decisions when things are more stable, in my view.

In order to do so we would need to borrow money from somewhere else at this point, and so it goes around.

CPR is pointless on a rotting three-day old corpse.

[Furunculus]

edmund conway on the worthlessness of imposed deadllines:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...the-brink.html

[Tellos Athenaios]

As opposed to what other kind of deadline? Obviously mr. Ed Conway can pull out one good scheme and containment plan after another from his rear, but some people like to calculate the ramifications of their idiocy before they propose it anyway... Obviously mr. Ed Conway can make the world magically agree on who pays for what, or who sees his money down the drain without a single effort, but others actually need to negotiate ...

It's a good thing people like Mr. Ed Conway are *not* in charge.

[Furunculus]

lol, the record of failure from self-imposed deadlines within the euro-crisis is pretty stunning; he is more than justified in asking if this one will be any different, and more than qualified to take a stab at the outcome.

your proposal is press both hands together, stare imploringly at the ceiling, and beseech god that this time it will work?

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...788082,00.html

[Tellos Athenaios]

lol, the record of failure from self-imposed deadlines within the euro-crisis is pretty stunning; he is more than justified in asking if this one will be any different, and more than qualified to take a stab at the outcome.

Yes, so what? Got an alternative? A real alternative? One that takes 25 different countries into account?

[Furunculus]

yes, it's called germany, the netherlands, austria and finland withdrawing from the euro and creating a separate D-mark based currency union.

One is reminded of the following quote:

The fallacy at the heart of this crisis is that every financial problem has a political solution. If only. Yet the Brussels elite and its co-conspirators at the IMF continue to promise that by “doing all it takes” they will, somehow, defy indefinitely economic gravity. This illusion of political primacy is perpetuated because a confession of impotence would not only undermine the worth of those in power but also expose the euro’s fatal flaw: monetary union without fiscal union is a marriage that weds the prudent to the profligate with no control over the latter’s spending. Financial pain will be accompanied by the political humiliation of European Union leaders and their apologists in the commentariat who boasted that such an outcome was impossible because there was the “necessary will” to prevent it occurring.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...tragedies.html

[Tellos Athenaios]

And that alternative somehow does not take negotiation? Or a timetable so the currencies can appreciate beforehand?

[Furunculus]

it represents a real solution, one with a hope of success and happiness at the end, totally unlike the endless bailouts that:
a) never solve Greece's competitivness problem
b) never solve the Germany people's bailout problem

[rory_20_uk]

It makes sense for similar countries to group together in the first instance. These groups in turn might choose to coalesce together in the fullness of time. But to add so many at such a pace was frankly asking a massive amount of the system - even if it was well set up with rigorous entry requirements.

[InsaneApache]

Indeed. The Benelux countries spring to mind.

[gaelic cowboy]

Thought I would see how much of the opening post has happened and it's pretty much all happened.

Basically if one scans the news media in a broad sense you can see a trend here that Portugal is next and therefore Spain.

Portugal check Spain in progress

If this all comes to pass the EFSF fund will run out and the Euro has a major problem lots of debt and no money left to bail out Spain.

check already topped up a few times now and there meeting to do it again.

The debt will be devalued and banks will be wound up the Euro will be severely weakened and what little gra anyone has for the Euro will go with them.

check Anglo and Irish nationwide are all gone, and the Euro down along with our gra for it too.

It seemed such a good idea at the time save the Euro by preventing a default of the PIIGS debt but I don't think it is going to work.

check


I also predicted that the bailout rate from the ECB and EU would have to come down and they have indeed come down now about twice in about a month or so.

I also said some bondholders of Irish bank bonds would be scalped and they were indeed scalped no less a man than Roman Arkadyevich Abramovich got burned.
The government was going to scalp more this month and basically the ECB begged Noonan not to do it hence the second reduction in the bailout rate.

Pretty much the only thing I didnt get right was that there was no medium term liquidity for banks proposal instead the ECB put pressure on the EU to extend the maturity of the bailout.

The ECB seems intent on protecting banks ahead of anyone as far as I can see.

[Tellos Athenaios]

it represents a real solution, one with a hope of success and happiness at the end, totally unlike the endless bailouts that:
a) never solve Greece's competitivness problem
b) never solve the Germany people's bailout problem

Yes. But back to my point: mocking the EU politico's for setting deadlines and timetables is all good fun, but quickly gets very silly. Even when/if the aforementioned countries create their own monetary union there is no denying that this will involve plenty of deadlines and timetables same way as if we keep on injecting more cash.

[Fragony]

Yes. But back to my point: mocking the EU politico's for setting deadlines and timetables is all good fun, but quickly gets very silly. Even when/if the aforementioned countries create their own monetary union there is no denying that this will involve plenty of deadlines and timetables same way as if we keep on injecting more cash.

Depends on who we drop cold really, don't tell me that isn't possible

[Centurion1]

eh i appreciate the pig countries. its going to make me a tidy profit; the yield on irish bonds is astounding and they don't feel quite like junk bonds that i will likely lose to be honest.

[Fragony]

eh i appreciate the pig countries

Well I don't. At teh Economycelt, if the Netherlands and Germany say kthxbye to everything below the garlic border and put the cash in our own sorry banks, how can it hurt us, what are the scenario's. No EU without the Dutch and Germans and many an economist says we should leave you all to dry.

No logistics without the Dutch, nothing to buy without the Germans. Bye Europe

[Tellos Athenaios]

Depends on who we drop cold really, don't tell me that isn't possible

Huh? Currency must be accepted for it to be useful. Must be available in order for it to be accepted anywhere, too. We must set expiry dates for when we leave the monetary union. We must make agreements about the debts in euro's that we're owed, and the ones which we owe...

Basic logistics. Once you look past a forum rant, there's an awful lot of work to be done before you can actually say “kthxbye”. Took 4 years for the Euro which was a political no-brainer by comparison at the time...

[Fragony]

Huh? Currency must be accepted for it to be useful. Must be available in order for it to be accepted anywhere, too. We must set expiry dates for when we leave the monetary union. We must make agreements about the debts in euro's that we're owed, and the ones which we owe...

Basic logistics. Once you look past a forum rant, there's an awful lot of work to be done before you can actually say ?kthxbye?. Took 4 years for the Euro which was a political no-brainer by comparison at the time...

I don't think it's all that complicated, a new coin for northen-europe, and the euro can stay to pay for drinks everywhere

[gaelic cowboy]

Well I don't. At teh Economycelt, if the Netherlands and Germany say kthxbye to everything below the garlic border and put the cash in our own sorry banks, how can it hurt us, what are the scenario's. No EU without the Dutch and Germans and many an economist says we should leave you all to dry.

No logistics without the Dutch, nothing to buy without the Germans. Bye Europe

Then kiss goodbye to the German export trade which then impacts the Dutch economy.

Neo D-mark will rise massively angainst the PIIGS and hurt German exports which is what the German economy is based on, and if the German economy slows then Holland will hardly be needed for much logistics.

[Fragony]

Then kiss goodbye to the German export trade which then impacts the Dutch economy.

Neo D-mark will rise massively angainst the PIIGS and hurt German exports which is what the German economy is based on, and if the German economy slows then Holland will hardly be needed for much logistics.

They can't do anything without us, no harbour can handle these capacities. Besides, they are not stupid. Doesn't have to be a coin a fund will do

[gaelic cowboy]

They can't do anything without us, no harbour can handle these capacities. Besides, they are not stupid. Doesn't have to be a coin a fund will do

The most likely thing that will happen is they wait till they get paid back by Ireland Frag, then they can just burn the Greek bonds after they have spent a while building a war chest to stuff down there own local banks and whatnot. An orderly attempt at a default by Greece can/may work but the present plan will never work.

We can prob guess there will be another meeting before xmas because of another crisis again blah blah etc etc.

[Fragony]

The most likely thing that will happen is they wait till they get paid back by Ireland Frag, then they can just burn the Greek bonds after they have spent a while building a war chest to stuff down there own local banks and whatnot. An orderly attempt at a default by Greece can/may work but the present plan will never work.

We can prob guess there will be another meeting before xmas because of another crisis again blah blah etc etc.

Beside the euro,, northern european guaranteed, currency doesn't really have to be printed. If we aren't to leave the euro at least we should consider what to do when we do.

[Furunculus]

Yes. But back to my point: mocking the EU politico's for setting deadlines and timetables is all good fun, but quickly gets very silly. Even when/if the aforementioned countries create their own monetary union there is no denying that this will involve plenty of deadlines and timetables same way as if we keep on injecting more cash.

strawman.

i am extracting the urine from euro-delusion, no the concept of decision making itself.

[InsaneApache]

http://www.presseurop.eu/en/content/...ns-new-make-do

Welcome to the future.

[Furunculus]

quite extraordinary, i wonder how long their tolerance for euro-imposed uncompetitveness will survive?

oh look, more fun and games on useless and decietful deadlines:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/c...e-dithers.html

ooh, and another on the folly of trying to dodge Germany's immutable Basic Law:

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/f...eferendum.html

"The sovereignty of the German state is inviolate and anchored in perpetuity by basic law. It may not be abandoned by the legislature (even with its powers to amend the constitution)," he said.

"There is little leeway left for giving up core powers to the EU. If one wants to go beyond this limit – which might be politically legitimate and desirable – then Germany must give itself a new constitution. A referendum would be necessary. This cannot be done without the people,"

"Germany has a great affinity for the rule of law. People expect the political class to obey the rules."

"Our judgment makes clear that the Bundestag cannot abdicate its fiscal responsibilities to other actors. And no permanent mechanism may be created that entails taking over the liabilities of other states,"

[Husar]

We could also buy the PIIGS countries like we bought East Germany in 1990, then raise a special solidarity tax in the "old countries" to build them up again...

Whether we get out of the Euro or not, I think the constant bailouts look a lot like a waste of money, they hope Greece will recover but Greece keeps spiralling down regardless.
Time to accept reality and let them default, and our banks, too. That way there won't be much need for new legislation as people should be more careful next time all by themselves.
Someone would pay for it anyway, but once the bailouts inevitably fail, we pay for that and the bailouts, so...

[Fragony]

We could also buy the PIIGS countries like we bought East Germany in 1990, then raise a special solidarity tax in the "old countries" to build them up again...

Whether we get out of the Euro or not, I think the constant bailouts look a lot like a waste of money, they hope Greece will recover but Greece keeps spiralling down regardless.
Time to accept reality and let them default, and our banks, too. That way there won't be much need for new legislation as people should be more careful next time all by themselves.
Someone would pay for it anyway, but once the bailouts inevitably fail, we pay for that and the bailouts, so...

That eastblock workhorse Merkel just agreed to raise the fund though. Money the AAA-countries have to borrow themselves.

[Furunculus]

will china come to the rescue:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...opes-feathers/

"no"

[Fragony]

will china come to the rescue:

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/finance...opes-feathers/

"no"

In many ways I welcome this incertainty