Euro Area

[Brenus]

The funniest thing is there is no possibility to kick a country out of the Euro… The only possibility (very hard) is to a country to leave…
Then, you have the technicalities: Print money (3 years?), change, debt, and who will pay for the Greek Euros, etc…
Funny that none of the “experts” who are telling as that either Greece will be expelled or will quit speak about the how. Then, if the debt still exists, in Euro, to go to drachma will change absolutely nothing. The debt will be 1 drachma, 1 week after 2 drachmas, 3 weeks after 100 drachmas for 1 Euro. Then you have to print new banknotes…
So, thanks to the stupid liberal/conservative policy, after 9 austerity plans that failed one after one and the increasing of the Greek debt, the only solution is to carry on. Like the medieval doctors, our good experts bleed the weak body to purge the bad humours. Doesn’t work? Well, at least the banksters and the Agencies are making money…

[InsaneApache]

I'd put it down to the imbeciles who started the Euro in the first place.

Remember politicians are not your friends. They are our enemies.

[Furunculus]

The funniest thing is there is no possibility to kick a country out of the Euro… The only possibility (very hard) is to a country to leave…

if greece does not meet the terms of the bailout plan it will not recieve the next tranche of german wonga.

if it does not have the wonga then it is instantly insolvent (it really is insolvent already), and needs to default.

if it defaults then it almost certainly needs to do this outside the eurozone.

if it does leave then all debt written in greek law will be devalued, and in all likelyhood europe will assist with debt held under foriegn law as it will mostly be 'owned' by european banks.

it is quite simples really. there are no good choices, but there is a choice between temporary agony and grinding depression.

[gaelic cowboy]

if greece does not meet the terms of the bailout plan it will not recieve the next tranche of german wonga.

if it does not have the wonga then it is instantly insolvent (it really is insolvent already), and needs to default.

if it defaults then it almost certainly needs to do this outside the eurozone.

if it does leave then all debt written in greek law will be devalued, and in all likelyhood europe will assist with debt held under foriegn law as it will mostly be 'owned' by european banks.

it is quite simples really. there are no good choices, but there is a choice between temporary agony and grinding depression.

They will see it crash in flames before they pluck the courage to help Greece leave.

The EU will have to take charge of any programme for Greece to leave in order to prevent an even worse default.
The next day Irish Spanish and Portugese bonds prices will be heading for orbit as the principle of a country leaving will have been proved.

Basically there stuck with the Greeks and they cant even stop them printing Euro if they want.

[Furunculus]

eurocrats have spent 18 months bailing out the boat until it reaches sight of land, and that time has been well used by banks to deleverage from greece and for the markets to price in the cost of a greek exit.

if it happens, it will be no lehmans.

there are no good choices, but there is a choice between temporary agony and grinding depression. and the choice will be made by the greek electorate.

good article from the economist:

http://www.economist.com/node/21555916

They say that they want to keep the euro intact—except, perhaps, for Greece. But northern European creditors, led by Germany, will not pay out enough to assure the euro’s survival, and southern European debtors increasingly resent foreigners telling them how to run their lives.

This has become a test of over 60 years of European integration. Only if Europeans share a sense of common purpose will a grand deal to save the single currency be seen as legitimate. Only if it is legitimate can it last.

[gaelic cowboy]

eurocrats have spent 18 months bailing out the boat until it reaches sight of land, and that time has been well used by banks to deleverage from greece and for the markets to price in the cost of a greek exit.

if it happens, it will be no lehmans.

there are no good choices, but there is a choice between temporary agony and grinding depression. and the choice will be made by the greek electorate.

good article from the economist:

http://www.economist.com/node/21555916

But if the precendent is there why would I buy EFSF or ESM bonds on the open market.

If Greece leaves then the whole system from the bailout bonds and even the currency is called into question.

[Furunculus]

the bundesbank appears to believe it achievable, i have no reason to disbelieve them.

i don't claim that it will be nice or easy, quite the opposite, but the world will not end, and the result has a good chance of creating a better outcome for all.

likewise, i don't claim that greece must leave, the hideous-strength of ever-closer-union has long defied common sense.

are you my family?

if greece is out that is a question to which germany may be able to answer "yes", in which case the euro has a future. a small price to pay, that might not otherwise be paid.

[gaelic cowboy]

the bundesbank appears to believe it achievable, i have no reason to disbelieve them.

i don't claim that it will be nice or easy, quite the opposite, but the world will not end, and the result has a good chance of creating a better outcome for all.

likewise, i don't claim that greece must leave, the hideous-strength of ever-closer-union has long defied common sense.

are you my family?

if greece is out that is a question to which germany may be able to answer "yes", in which case the euro has a future. a small price to pay, that might not otherwise be paid.

The Bundesbank talks an awful lot of if you ask me, they have no way of knowing where this ends.

Far simpler to just unleash the ECB to back up all banks and let things ride.