Could the Axis have won?

[ReluctantSamurai]

The inferior (compared with Russian) American Tanks (Grant) were more than match for the Japanese Tanks

Considering where the Japanese had been fighting since 1931 (China), and where warfare with the United States would probably take place (all the various island chains strung across the Pacific), Japan had no need for a main battle tank that was the mainstay of European-based warfare. With a limited industrial base, the Japanese decided to focus on the two areas that could make the most difference in the areas they expected to fight: aircraft and naval ships.

The Sun Empire needed immediate profit, things to loot and with immediate effect…
And it would have distract forces from where they were needed

After the US embargo in July of 1941, they needed oil.

To get back to the original OP...the Axis might have succeeded within a very narrow window of opportunity. The end of 1941 or by spring 1942 at the very latest. After that, their possibilities of success fall rapidly. The reason for this, IMO, is the industrial power of the three major Allied nations...the Soviet Union, Great Britain, and the United States. Combined, their industrial output simply dwarfs the Axis powers by a huge margin. Any protracted conflict will allow more and more of that industrial power to be brought to bear, which is just what actually occurred.

Germany and her immediate allies (Italy, Romania, Hungary, and Finland) had the better chance. Japan was doomed the instant they attacked Pearl Harbor. There are tons of specific examples of how Germany could have done this or that differently and thus effected a better outcome, but IMHO, one of the biggest mistakes was alienating the population of the Ukraine during the summer and fall of 1941. Here they had a ready-made base of people that would gladly take up arms to throw off the hated regime of Stalin, and this would have instantly solved the problem of replacements for the front lines, as well as greatly lessened the occurrence of partisan activity on their longest supply line (that of AG South). The Trans-Caucasus District were not very friendly towards the communists either, and it's not inconceivable that they might have turned on the communists, as well. This would not bode very well for Stalin, and might have tipped the balance far enough to allow a German victory.

Japan's only chance, and an extremely slim one at that, was to attack only the Philippines and the DEI and stay away from anything "mainland" USA. The virtual firestorm created by attacking Hawaii galvanized the US public in a way that they might not have been had holdings thousands of miles away been the only targets.

Plan Orange and all of its rainbow configurations were simply pipe dreams on the part of the US military. At the time PH was attacked, the USN had exactly 11 fleet oilers in the Pacific, of which only 6 were capable of at-sea refueling. Their capacity was barely adequate to keep the main battle fleet at sea for a month, let alone for an extended campaign all the way to Manila. After repeated heavy losses, the US might have settled for peace....and I repeat, might. The whole venture would be a long shot for the Japanese, but certainly better than the way it actually played out. And to head off the "hind-sighter" argument, there were many in the Japanese High Command (including Adm. Yamamoto) who felt that attacking the US at that time was a very bad idea, so this whole train of thinking had already been done by high-ranking Japanese naval officers.