US Federal Government Shutdown

[Kralizec]

Just to be clear...

A lot of Republican representatives are toeing the Tea Party line, not necessarily because they agree with it themselves, but because they feel they have more to fear from a challenger in their primaries than from their Democratic opponent.

They proceed to (ab)use the fact that at least some Republican votes are needed to approve a budget, by forcing even the moderate Republicans to toe the Tea Party line. So a sub-part of of a majority in one of the three elected Federal offices (the others being the senate and POTUS) is effectively shutting everything down to get their way on one single issue.

Isn't this strategy self-defeating? I mean that certain individual Republicans in the House might be right in that their constituency will probably vote "R" anyway but that their biggest competition comes from the Tea Party in the primaries. But in constituencies that are less certain, the majority of the voters might chose to vote Democratic instead of someone who will support anything, no matter how stupid, as long as it pleases the Tea Party.

In short: are the HoR Republicans more concerned about keeping their own office than the long-term interests of their own party? If yes, doesn't the RNC have anything to say about this?

[Gaius Scribonius Curio]

An interesting consideration of US paralysis from the Australian perspective.

'If the USS America goes down, little HMAS Australia will find it tough not to get sucked into the vortex'

'No one really knows what will happen if the debt ceiling is not raised. Views range from, it’ll be fine, to it’ll be Armageddon. The US Treasury for its part has put out a paper that paints a pretty scary picture.

After looking at what has occurred in 2011 when the US nearly reached the debt limit, it concluded that a debt default “could have a catastrophic effect on not just financial markets but also on job creation, consumer spending and economic growth”.

It also noted that “many private-sector analysts believing that it would lead to events of the magnitude of late 2008 or worse, and the result then was a recession more severe than any seen since the Great Depression”.

And just in case you are a glass-half-full kind of person and you still have some optimism, the report ends on this less than upbeat note: “Considering the experience of countries around that world that have defaulted on their debt... [the] consequences, including high interest rates, reduced investment, higher debt payments, and slow economic growth, could last for more than a generation.”

Cheery...

Our economy is like a dinghy in the ocean of the international economy. If the US scuttles itself though political intransigence, without another mining boom, little HMAS Australia would find it tough not to get sucked into the vortex as USS America goes down.'

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Isn't this strategy self-defeating? I mean that certain individual Republicans in the House might be right in that their constituency will probably vote "R" anyway but that their biggest competition comes from the Tea Party in the primaries. But in constituencies that are less certain, the majority of the voters might chose to vote Democratic instead of someone who will support anything, no matter how stupid, as long as it pleases the Tea Party.

In short: are the HoR Republicans more concerned about keeping their own office than the long-term interests of their own party? If yes, doesn't the RNC have anything to say about this?

Many GOP reps, even in moderate districts, have a hard corps of Taxed Enough Already sympathizers among their normal GOP voting base. If they lose that chunk of voters (usually a highly motivated slice of their district's voters) because they oppose the TEA holy grail of knocking out Obamacare, they may lose the edge they need to best the DEM running against them. So, even in districts where the TEA party enjoys only marginal favor, that slice may represent the margin of victory for a GOP incumbent.

The TEA party's influence is, therefore, somewhat broader than one might suppose from its raw percentage.

Latest Pew poll apparently shows the US public more or less evenly split with 44% blaming GOP and 42% blaming Obama and the Dems. Though apparently, that was in a forced choice kinda question. There is a huge group that thinks they are all being idiots, regardless of party.

[ICantSpellDawg]

One way to make sure that the US stops borrowing money is to blow out the credit rating. It would force hard choices to be made. Skyrocket taxes and cut government or just slash and burn government. It could be a way to terminate nearly every government employee and start from an actual baseline, figuring out what is actually necessary expense moving forward. Farmland in the midwest wouldnt be able to be paid to lie dormant, in an attempt to bank on the increase in cost of food, farmers would have more incentive to produce than the government had money to pay. The purchasing power of all nations would rise and increase their ability to afford food. More food would hit the global marketplace. I'm in favor of a temporary expansion of the timit, but as a constituent, even if I lost my job, I could be persuaded to support a credit correction by way of default. That is the beauty of ideology over the rest. It is harder to take an individual hostage if they have a principled stoicism. Or very little could happen. Let's try it. Live a little

[TinCow]

Latest Pew poll apparently shows the US public more or less evenly split with 44% blaming GOP and 42% blaming Obama and the Dems. Though apparently, that was in a forced choice kinda question. There is a huge group that thinks they are all being idiots, regardless of party.

Here's a poll without the forced choice. In short, everyone sucks, but the Republicans suck more than the rest. It also shows the GOP starting to splinter:

The wide unpopularity of Republicans in Congress in budget talks is in large part due to a schism within Republicans themselves. By 59 to 39 percent, conservative Republicans approve of the way their party’s members of congress have handled budget negotiations in combined interviews over two weeks. But Republicans who identify as moderate or liberal split narrowly: 44 percent approval to 49 percent disapproval.

This ideological split within the Republican party comes into sharper focus when looking at the most conservative party members. Republicans who describe themselves as “very conservative” approve of Republicans in Congress by 68 to 32 percent. Those who are just “somewhat conservative” split 51 to 45 percent in two weeks of combined poll results.

The shutdown itself is also increasingly looking like the nail in Cuccinelli's coffin. I hesitate to call the loss of the VA Governor's race a consequence of this because it was looking like the Cooch was going to lose anyway, but it's certainly going to start inflicting a political price on the GOP very shortly.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Here's a poll without the forced choice. In short, everyone sucks, but the Republicans suck more than the rest. It also shows the GOP starting to splinter:



The shutdown itself is also increasingly looking like the nail in Cuccinelli's coffin. I hesitate to call the loss of the VA Governor's race a consequence of this because it was looking like the Cooch was going to lose anyway, but it's certainly going to start inflicting a political price on the GOP very shortly.

C' mon, McCaullife broke away in August. Nail in the coffin, yes, but that implies that his coffin was already there and that Ken was in it.

Spin your narratives if you'd like, but Cuccinelli scared the new Virginians and the ACA was a compromise between Democratic socialist and capitalist factions. I'm actually surprised that HoreTore thinks that the ACA was a Republican/Democrat compromise. Is anyone else surprised by that? Its fun to be slopped together on "compromises" which you opposed wholeheartedly with minimal defection

[TinCow]

C' mon, McCaullife broke away in August. Nail in the coffin, yes, but that implies that his coffin was already there and that Ken was in it.

Spin your narratives if you'd like, but Cuccinelli scared the new Virginians and the ACA was a compromise between Democratic socialist and capitalist factions.

He didn't "break away" until the shutdown brinksmanship started. Cooch was consistently holding at about 4-5 points down before that point. I agree completely that he was entirely unlikely to ever be able to close that gap, but 4-5 points was theoretically surmountable. That gap has now doubled, which is remarkable given what a poor candidate that McAuliffe is. Honestly, this entire race should be a lesson the the GOP. I'm a solid liberal (mainly social) but I've been very pleased with how McDonnell has run the state and I have a lot of respect for Bolling as well. If the GOP had run Bolling against McAuliffe, they'd have my vote in a few weeks and would likely have retained the state. To be more honest as well, I really want Christie for POTUS in 2016. The ONLY reason I might not vote for him at this point is the House GOP. I'm nervous about enabling that group further by giving them a party-aligned president, even one as independently strong-willed as Christie. My hope is that the Tea Party will have their backs broken by 2016 and I'll be able to freely vote for Christie without concerns about Congress.

Think about that. The last GOP candidate I voted for for President was Dole, but I prefer Christie over any other candidate I've even heard of, including Clinton. Yet my vote could end up going to the Dems because of the House GOP.

[drone]

He didn't "break away" until the shutdown brinksmanship started. Cooch was consistently holding at about 4-5 points down before that point. I agree completely that he was entirely unlikely to ever be able to close that gap, but 4-5 points was theoretically surmountable. That gap has now doubled, which is remarkable given what a poor candidate that McAuliffe is. Honestly, this entire race should be a lesson the the GOP. I'm a solid liberal (mainly social) but I've been very pleased with how McDonnell has run the state and I have a lot of respect for Bolling as well. If the GOP had run Bolling against McAuliffe, they'd have my vote in a few weeks and would likely have retained the state.

This entire race has just been a sandwich, from start to finish. McAuliffe is a bad choice for the Dems, but the state GOP completely lost their minds. Cuccinelli might have had a chance, even with the Jackson stench and McDonnell scandal. Putting a large percentage of the population in both NoVa and the Hampton Roads region out of work right before the election? Good call, GOP.