Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

C
Sarmation may feel that the Deputies voted to out the President because they were threatened, but all evidence is that even his own supporters are losing enthusiasm. pro-Kiev protests have broken out in the South and East and the Police are protecting them from pro-Russian counter-protesters.

The Ukrainians have worked it out - the guy who backs the West might not be great, but the guy who backs Russia has his important opponents locked up and the unimportant ones shot.

Where's the evidence? I'd really like to see it. Factually, the Rada wasn't willing to depose Yanukovych until protesters took control of it. Which means, either they were afraid of Yanukovych government or they are afraid of the rebels now.

Former chairman of Rada, Volodymyr Rybak, claims he was beaten up after he resigned his position, which, if true, doesn't lend credibility to the opposition.

I saw Tymoshenko - the two and a half years in prison have not been kind.

Whatever she may have done, and she's not squeaky clean, she was locked up BECAUSE she was a political problem.

So while I don't blame Sarmation for his Cynicism, I think this is more about the abuse of Power the current President has undertaken. We know the next President will have less power, whoever he is. The current one is definitely toast, after they broke into his compound and discovered him living like a King.

Timoshenko was a byword for corruption during her term, and that, coupled with some disastrous moves she tried to pull and failed was the reason she lost the election.

Can someone explain to ignorant me how there is such a thing as a western and a Russian part. I have been watching this with amazement, I have no idea what's going on over there.

Ukraine was a part of the Russian Empire. Some parts of it also belonged to other empires, namely Austria and Poland in the past. Over the years, they developed their separate national identity. After the dissolution of the Russian Empire, Ukraine was recognized as a separate entity and joined the SU. In the 1950's, Ukraine was ceded what is now southeastern part of Ukraine by Russia. Since it was a single country, it was just an administrative change. Those parts were never part of Ukraine before and very little Ukrainians lived there. After the USSR dissolved, Ukraine was recognized as an independent country with those borders. Additionally, Russians are a majority in the eastern part of Ukraine.

So, the eastern part is more pro-Russian while the western is more pro-EU.

[Kagemusha]

All uprisings and revolutions are tragic. They are, by definition, the result of a collapsing state. There was never a conflict where the sides played out like a Tolkien book. But that does not mean that we should have tried our best to prevent this conflict from happening or that we should refuse to pick sides. Personally, if there really is such a staunch divide between west Ukraine and east, I would support simply dividing the two and erring on the side of self determination.

I think your solution is a solid one, but the thing is that it is really not our hands to resolve this. EU cant support such solution because of two folded reasoning. First it really does not want to mess up relations with Russia which is realpolitiks and secondary, because of the fragmenting tendencies like Scotland, Catalonia and Basque country within EU, as it would give an unwanted precedent for such. When it comes to Russia, who knows. Russia is Russia and if anything unpredictable and Russia has substantially lower treshold to interfere by military means compared to EU countries.

[Husar]

I have no idea

That's not unusual lately. I recommend you watch some quality media news because they explain it in almost every video on the subject.

What baffles me is why ICSD thinks Western governments should militarize their police forces more so they can kill civilians faster once this inevitably happens here, too. Because it's nowhere near going to happen here. People from the respective countries come here because even they know the situation is much better in the west than it is in their countries.

The whole armed populace thing is rubbish, with 6% weapons per household or what that figure was the Ukrainians did just fine, only proves that the population doesn't need guns. If the government wants to kill everyone and rule an empty country that's their choice, not sure what the point of that would be though. McDonald's is much better at keeping people away from revolutions anyway.

[Kagemusha]

Really tired of this hypothetical coming up all the time. You really have no idea how effective an armed populace will be until an actual revolution happens. Talking about what would happen is the equivalent to talking about the results of hypothetical wars. We don't all sit around and speak confidently about the tactics that would be used in a US-China fight, the amount of people that would die on each side and who would win in what amount of time and then go, "Yep and that is what would happen, your suggestion is wildly unrealistic!".

Give it a rest guys.

Blah,blah keep on dreaming.. How effective are insurgents in Iraq? The fact is that armed rising needs substantial support from organized military force either from within or outside. The days of musket are long gone.

[HoreTore]

So, the eastern part is more pro-Russian while the western is more pro-EU.

The impression I've got over the last month or so, is that the western part is more anti-russian and pro-independence than it is pro-EU...

[Fragony]

That's not unusual lately.

Ah yes, I forgot the [insert snide remarks here] part. Should have seen it comming.

[Sarmatian]

Pro-independence? From whom? Ukrainians wishing independence from independent Ukraine?

[HoreTore]

Pro-independence? From whom? Ukrainians wishing independence from independent Ukraine?

That's my impression, yes.

[Sarmatian]

That's my impression, yes.

While it would be interesting to discuss metaphysical aspect of it, let's stick to reality in this thread.

[Husar]

Ah yes, I forgot the [insert snide remarks here] part. Should have seen it comming.

The division of Ukraine in terms of western and eastern preferences was even discussed in this thread and it's certainly being discussed in the media. I just couldn't resist when you said you have no idea what it's about because it seems really easy to get this information, even accidentally. If your typical sources did not cover this then you may want to look for better sources.

[Fragony]

That's my impression, yes.

Same here, without really knowing what I am talking about, just an impression. Europhiles kinda freak me out here (don't mind the Dutch, it's about the video)
http://www.geenstijl.nl/mt/archieven...rhofstadt.html

Wut?

[Fragony]

The division of Ukraine in terms of western and eastern preferences was even discussed in this thread and it's certainly being discussed in the media. I just couldn't resist when you said you have no idea what it's about because it seems really easy to get this information, even accidentally. If your typical sources did not cover this then you may want to look for better sources.

Resist this . There is obviously more going on here.

[HoreTore]

While it would be interesting to discuss metaphysical aspect of it, let's stick to reality in this thread.

It is indeed reality. It's my impression that the west seek some kind of independence/detachment from the east. Now, whether that means splitting the country in two, chasing out the russians, assimilation of the russians, turning the russians into second-class citizens or something else, I'm quite unsure...

[Ironside]

Pro-independence? From whom? Ukrainians wishing independence from independent Ukraine?

Percieved and actual Russian influence.

Really tired of this hypothetical coming up all the time. You really have no idea how effective an armed populace will be until an actual revolution happens. Talking about what would happen is the equivalent to talking about the results of hypothetical wars. We don't all sit around and speak confidently about the tactics that would be used in a US-China fight, the amount of people that would die on each side and who would win in what amount of time and then go, "Yep and that is what would happen, your suggestion is wildly unrealistic!".

Give it a rest guys.

Mildly topic relevant. How much money and how would you need to transfer it to topple Putin in a popular rebellion, while keeping it moderatly secret?

The answer is that for the moment, it's impossible. Because we know from historical experience a dim understanding on how strong influence something like that can do and can't. We don't need actual numbers. Can Sweden conquer the US before the end of 2014? We have no idea on the exact details of such a war, but we do know enough to say that the answer is no.

It's similar with my statements. We do know how successful revolutions have looked like, so we got a vague picture. Could a more militant response, possible by high firearm ownership, from getting shot by police sniper cause enough room to provoke a military response? Maybe, but that's an example of we not knowing enough.

We do know the combat efficiency of US troops, from Afghanistan and Iraq. Are the average American civilian with firearms going to be more dangerous than a similar person in those countries? No.
Were they even close to defeat the US troops so much that the US troops surrendered to them? Hell NO! And that's the situation. In such a suppression of a full rebellion, the troops can't simply withdraw, and the leaders in charge won't care about minor losses.

Can a vastly superior number of untrained troops defeat trained troops with similar weaponry? Yes, in particular through attrition.
Are advanced weaponry extremely influencial were it exists? Yes. Would allowance to use such weaponry completely change the picture? Yes. Does the US military have an abundance of such weaponry? Yes.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Think Wallonia and Flanders. Very different historical backround of course, but the same principle of a division within a country.

ICantSpellDawg, to give a few scenarios:

Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "No". Usually a revolution. Gun ownage irrellevant.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing". Very bloody suppression. Gun ownage insuffient.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players goes, "Sure thing", but they lack a large enough army. Civil war. Gun ownage matters.
Guy in charge goes "use the military". The military/other power players splits and say both "No and Sure thing". Civil war. Gun ownage matters, but less the stronger the the army is.

What it tells you are that if you don't have an army that can massacre your own population, gun ownage is irrelevant. And that the US, with its very strong army is a country were gun ownage matters little, because the US military strength will overshadow the civilian gun ownership.

You've seen generals resign and defect in Ukraine, resisting the call to use forces to expel the protestors. Do you think the entirety of the US military would back the regime? Would there be defections? You can pretend that some form of social collapse is impossible in the west, but I don't believe it.
Attrition by the military and sabotage of the means by which the technology functions are always key in successful insurrections. Currently, the US military can't win against a people that they don't care about, using endless resources to fight them, in a small area of the world. The US military could control an an area the size of the United States with a tremendous number of relatively intelligent people who are family members with dwindling and sabotaged resources and dramatic attrition?

The smugness that comes out of you guys, in spite of the countless wars, coups, revolutions, civil wars that are the hallmark of human progress and history, even within the past 100 years - is breathtaking.

Obviously, violent insurrection in the US would be pointless and terrible as things are otherwise progressing slowly but well. Still, one or 2 more terrible administrations and who knows what to think. They keep getting worse, even as we continue to grow as a country. I don't feel like the US is as stable as they suggest it is.

Maybe I'm just getting older, but it seems like no one has any respect for the absurd laws that govern them and tax rates are skyrocketing as incomes decrease. Unemployment is not getting better, people are dropping out of the workforce or employed at part time jobs. The status of the US has dropped precipitously in the world. Revolution in the next 10 years? Nah - but if stagnation stays where it is, it could get pretty bad in the longer term, turning the country into a corrupt backwater.

[Sarmatian]

The situation is complicated, definitely, mostly because a majority of population identify itself as Ukrainian, except in some areas, notably those ceded to Ukraine by Russia during the Soviet era, like Crimea.

Almost entire population of Ukraine is bilingual. The Russian language dominates on a national level - 60% of the newspapers are in Russian and 80% of the magazines. On radio, 3% of the songs are in Ukrainian, 60% are in Russian. Even in Kiev, most of people use Russian in informal communication. Yet, the Ukrainian government doesn't recognize Russian as an official language, but only as a minority language.

The number of people saying Russian language is their first language, or, let's say, those considering themselves ethnic Russians is


The map showing the actual usage of language.


So, it's not really Russians, but Russophone Ukrainians.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The situation is complicated, definitely, mostly because a majority of population identify itself as Ukrainian, except in some areas, notably those ceded to Ukraine by Russia during the Soviet era, like Crimea.

Almost entire population of Ukraine is bilingual. The Russian language dominates on a national level - 60% of the newspapers are in Russian and 80% of the magazines. On radio, 3% of the songs are in Ukrainian, 60% are in Russian. Even in Kiev, most of people use Russian in informal communication. Yet, the Ukrainian government doesn't recognize Russian as an official language, but only as a minority language.

The number of people saying Russian language is their first language, or, let's say, those considering themselves ethnic Russians is


The map showing the actual usage of language.


So, it's not really Russians, but Russophone Ukrainians.

The majority of the Irish spoke English when they broke away. Language does not imply political leaning - for example, Kiev is primarily Russian speaking, and look where that took them. I've understood the divide to be more nuanced than an East/West thing, with pockets here and there supporting the opposition. However, while opposition support is not limited to the west, party of regions support seems to be limited to the South and East.

[Sarmatian]

The majority of the Irish spoke English when they broke away. Language does not imply political leaning - for example, Kiev is primarily Russian speaking, and look where that took them. I've understood the divide to be more nuanced than an East/West thing, with pockets here and there supporting the opposition. However, while opposition support is not limited to the west, party of regions support seems to be limited to the South and East.

Politically, no. On page 2 I posted election results. click. The east firmly behind Yanukovych, the west firmly behind Timoshenko.

[ICantSpellDawg]

That was Tymoshenko. I dont trust her either. I'm not convinced that she didn't belong in prison.

[HoreTore]

The situation is complicated, definitely, mostly because a majority of population identify itself as Ukrainian, except in some areas, notably those ceded to Ukraine by Russia during the Soviet era, like Crimea.

Almost entire population of Ukraine is bilingual. The Russian language dominates on a national level - 60% of the newspapers are in Russian and 80% of the magazines. On radio, 3% of the songs are in Ukrainian, 60% are in Russian. Even in Kiev, most of people use Russian in informal communication. Yet, the Ukrainian government doesn't recognize Russian as an official language, but only as a minority language.

The number of people saying Russian language is their first language, or, let's say, those considering themselves ethnic Russians is


The map showing the actual usage of language.


So, it's not really Russians, but Russophone Ukrainians.

....And it's this situation I believe the western part wants to change, and turn the entire Ukraine into the Ukraine they want it to be(ie. no smelly Russian culture).

It's nationalism, Sarmatian, it's not a rational feeling.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Then why would you demean the connection that I was trying to make? I suggest that authorities all over the world become paranoid when they see these things happen. The riots and protests that have been sweeping the eurasian/north african region are metastatic and getting closer to our own capitals by the day. Neglect of this reality suggests western "end of history" chauvanism. Lessons should be learned now, before we are forced to learn them in the field.

Errrrr London riots?

You need to stop living in a fish bowl.

The Ukrainian government was toppled by its own use of worse, which robbed it of legitimacy. Imagine if the US Govt have besieged the occupy camp for months, then opened fire with snipers.

This is not a rhetoric but real life. If this will go down south as i am afraid it will. The Eastern and Western part of Ukraine will be soon in war and at that point who is "right" or "wrong" does not mean anything when we will be witnessing a human tragedy at really disturbing level. While EU and Russia will be in a really difficult spot and US just cant sail to Black Sea and cruise missile everything back to stone age bringing "freedom" in the process.

This is highly unlikely, Ukraine is wedged between Russia and the EU - and war would see Peacekeeper troops on the ground in days. While war is not impossible there are, as yet, no indications that anyone thinks it is going to happen.

Where's the evidence? I'd really like to see it. Factually, the Rada wasn't willing to depose Yanukovych until protesters took control of it. Which means, either they were afraid of Yanukovych government or they are afraid of the rebels now.

Former chairman of Rada, Volodymyr Rybak, claims he was beaten up after he resigned his position, which, if true, doesn't lend credibility to the opposition.

Well, looks like he and his Guard fled - and then he was impeached. Yanukovych realised he had lost control and was going to lose power, word is he tried to escape to Russia. I think the Rada saw that once the government ordered the use of lethal force it had lost legitimacy and they needed to stop backing it. It's not like it's only the opposition, or like they have guns to their heads. His own party have started to desert him!

[Sarmatian]

Well, looks like he and his Guard fled - and then he was impeached. Yanukovych realised he had lost control and was going to lose power, word is he tried to escape to Russia. I think the Rada saw that once the government ordered the use of lethal force it had lost legitimacy and they needed to stop backing it. It's not like it's only the opposition, or like they have guns to their heads. His own party have started to desert him!

Except there was brawling, threats of force and violence in the parliament before the vote.

I don't know whose "word" it is, but every news agency reported he is in Kharkov and he said he isn't thinking about leaving the country.

[rvg]

I don't know whose "word" it is, but every news agency reported he is in Kharkov and he said he isn't thinking about leaving the country.

He isn't thinking about it because he tried and failed. The border guards did not allow his plane to take off.

[Crazed Rabbit]

Perhaps the results here and in Egypt will lead more rulers to negotiate earlier in hopes of staving off this sort of result.

CR

[rvg]

Perhaps the results here and in Egypt will lead more rulers to negotiate earlier in hopes of staving off this sort of result.

Yeah, none of this would have happened if he didn't send in the riot police to disperse the protests back on November 30.

[ICantSpellDawg]

The Ukrainian government was toppled by its own use of worse, which robbed it of legitimacy. Imagine if the US Govt have besieged the occupy camp for months, then opened fire with snipers.

Occupy was a peaceful protest. There is no question that if the protestors began throwing Molotov's at police that snipers would have been employed to shoot and kill anyone armed with more than a twig. Just watching the level off hyper violence employed by US police on unarmed peaceful protestors could lead you to no other conclusion, you have admitted as much. If the brutality of the police in Ukraine was the breaking point of the governments power after 3 months, and you know that the US would employ similar if not more brutal tactics, what then would the result in the US be?

[HoreTore]

Occupy was a peaceful protest.

So was the initial Ukrainian protest, until the police decided to give the protesters a thumping.

[ICantSpellDawg]

So was the initial Ukrainian protest, until the police decided to give the protesters a thumping.

I don't remember it that way. In the US, when riot police arrive, protestors mostly yell and get pissed, but seldom fight back when police advance. The worst that you see them do is resist arrest. In Ukraine, protestors physically fought riot police when moved in upon, which would make force against them legitimate by western standards.

[HoreTore]

In Ukraine, protestors physically fought riot police when moved in upon, which would make force against them legitimate by western standards.

Only if the "move in" was legitimate.

It certainly wasn't by western standards.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Only if the "move in" was legitimate.

It certainly wasn't by western standards.

OK, but as a leftist activist, are you or are you not impressed by the level of restraint used by Ukrainian riot police over the past 3 months? It would have been much more brutal a suppression in Russia, Belarus, Venezuela, and the USA. In the US it would have become brutal for the sheer fact that no permit was approved, whatever the hell that means.