Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

Bear in mind, a trade deal was on the table before the former president backed down.

A trade deal - yes, not direct aid, iirc.

An important piece of the puzzle is corruption in Ukraine which Russia factored in probably, but I'm not sure whether EU did.

If EU sends some money, and the money isn't used properly, will it send more, after the enthusiasm in the west drops and Ukraine moves away from front pages...

Under a new president, who we now know was building himself palaces - and you wonder why the PARLIAMENT voted to impeach him?

That palace by itself is of no consequence. It just serves as another proof of the widespread corruption.

I didn't say the West was the greatest - but the news here has been over the issue of the undoing of the 2004 Constitution (6 years after the Court handwaved it), in fact it was on the news in 2010 when it happened.

So there's something wrong at your end with what they're telling you.

Yes, I sit in a room 6 hours every day with trained Russian propaganda agents telling me what I need to know.

Isn't it simpler to assume I don't know everything (it happens even to me sometimes :D) and some bits and pieces of information can escape me, rather than assuming that I'm biased or under influence of "doctored" news?

That's not true, about Russia at least. Putin believes, accurately, that the Western Bloc is opposed to Russia gaining international influence.

Cold War never really ended - it just went quiet.

Cold War ended in the sense that Russia is not a threat to the west anymore, but NATO doesn't want to let go of it because it can't justify its own existence without an external threat, so Russia will serve as a good bogeyman for a few decades more and then NATO will turn to China probably.

[Ironside]

The West is rational while Russia operates on emotions. It's a common trait of despotic governments (like DPRK, Venezuela, Zimbabwe etc). We certainly don't operate on the notion that the whole world is out to get us. Russia does.

Nah, both operates often on emotions and sometimes on logic. A lot of the major political moves done by the US has been emotionally driven the last decades. The world is out to get us is much lower, but still existant, see China for example and remember Japan in the 80-ties (before their stagnation). A potential rival in the future becomes the rival that overtakes in the future.

[a completely inoffensive name]

Cold War ended in the sense that Russia is not a threat to the west anymore,

Except for, you know, all the nukes they still have.

[Sarmatian]

Nukes are primarily a defensive weapon. That just proves they can not be invaded. They are as much of a threat to world's security as much as British, American, French, Indian, Chinese... nukes.

[PROVOST]

^

Good old M.A.D. situation kicks in with Nukes.

Bravo to the people in Kiev sticking it the crap Russian puppet President and hopefully they achieve what they hope for.

[Kagemusha]

Putin has ordered today at noon the forces of the Russian Western military district bordering Ukraine, to high alert in order for unscheduled military exercise.

According to Russian sources, the maneuvers will include: "Some 150,000 troops, 90 aircraft, over 120 helicopters, 880 tanks and 1,200 pieces of military hardware will be involved in the drills, deputy Defense Minister Anatoly Antonov said Wednesday."

This is no petty force Russia is mobilizing. My cautious optimism from yesterday is turning into real worry today..

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Sabre-rattling to be sure. On the other hand, if a definitive decision to intervene had already been made, there would be no announcements made until after forces had crossed the border.

[Kagemusha]

My bet it is both a signal and a provocation. Russia is mobilizing its armed forces to ready state of affairs if needs to be. I do not think they are planning to just invade without further excuses. Nope. My bet is that they want to see how both the Western and Eastern factions of Ukraine will react. Basically to me this smells like a move in a chess game from Russian point of view. They have already said that the up and coming government of Ukraine is unlawful, they have frozen financial aid to Ukraine and now they showing military readiness.

I really do hope that the Ukrainians can get their shit together and make some sort of consensual agreement within. If this provocation from Russia will encourage conflict within Ukraine. My bet is that it will be just the casus belli Russia is looking for some "peace keeping action to protect the Russians in Ukraine".

[Brenus]

The Russian Revenge will be to leave Ukraine to EU that suddenly found billions to help the new Government (composed at the moment of heirs of the 14 SS Galicia, corrupted and few news guys) when the same EU had no money to help Greece, Italy or Portugal. Hmmmm. remind me Cameron in UK telling money won't be a problem for the flood victims having lost their jobs and houses, when he had none for the workers loosing their jobs and their houses...

[Sarmatian]

Quite a worrying development. As SF said, I believe it's more muscle flexing than anything else, otherwise they probably wouldn't release information about movement of troops and their numbers. It's most probably sending a message to few would-be-Sakaashvilis in the new government.

Invading would alienate most of the Ukrainian population and Russia would only do it as a last resort, like if some idiot decides to send the army to Crimea or to attack Russian bases. There are some fascists wannabes within the new government in Kiev but saner voices should prevail.

[drone]

So, in real life who is Kramer, and who is Newman?

[a completely inoffensive name]

Nukes are primarily a defensive weapon. That just proves they can not be invaded. They are as much of a threat to world's security as much as British, American, French, Indian, Chinese... nukes.

by that logic, they were never a threat since the 1950s.

[Gilrandir]

I discovered this thread only today (courtesy of Drone) so I think I can answer some questions you might have. Though, you may say that I can't claim impartiality in what concerns me closely, and you would be right. Still, some backstage view may be interesting for the people here.
In this post I would like to dwell on the reasons of what we have now.
1. Pervasive corruption. Almost every body of power you contact will expect a bribe from you: the road police, the customs, local municipal bodies. Very often (I would say regularly) it is encouraged and indeed demanded by those officials who are higher up the career ladder. I can provide an example from the University life as it is my cup of tea, you may say. To become the head of a University (he is called Rector) you must pay about 10 000 dollars. Then each month the Rector has to bring a certain sum of money to the ministry of education. The Rector demands the money from the professors who in turn demand money from the students - it is impossible for them to pass an exam without giving a bribe. Rectors of some Universities (mine including) refuse to do that and they are pressured to resign if they don't have any influential support. The same with custom officers, road police and so on.
2. Total impunity of those at power. They may do whatever they want without fearing any punishment. Again an example from my personal experience. Last May a guy who works at the local administration and moonlights at my department (his total salary something about 500 bucks) was driving drunk a jeep costing about 50 000 dollars and ran over to death a woman of thirty on a pedestrian crossing. No punishment whatever! Unless you can call a punishment a holiday at Dubai this winter.
3. Glaring discrepancy between the living standards of the majority of the people and the estates the top officials build for themselves - those are more like some sheikh's palace than a house. You may search for information (videos preferably) about Yanukovych's residence at Mezhihirya.
These three I see as causes of the events we are living through. If anyone is interested I can express my vision of the events that followed as well as clarify some issues such as language and worldview differences in Ukraine.

[Fisherking]

Just tell us what you can!

Thanks!

[Kagemusha]

@Gilrandir, can you tell us about how divided your country currently really is in your opinion?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My concerns center around secession. As in, Crimea and everything East of the Dnieper secede from the new Government and, being largely Russian speakers the Russians move in to "prevent ethnic cleansing" or some such. If this happens I do not believe NATO would intervene, or stop buying fuel from Russia.

The EU then gets to prop up (see posts above) the poorest part of the Ukraine while the most profitable zones become a Russian satrapy or get re-annexed outright.

While I am sure there is some sentiment along these lines in the region noted, I do not know how prevalent it is and, therefore, just how likely this unhappy scenario might be.

[Sarmatian]

I discovered this thread only today (courtesy of Drone) so I think I can answer some questions you might have. Though, you may say that I can't claim impartiality in what concerns me closely, and you would be right. Still, some backstage view may be interesting for the people here.
In this post I would like to dwell on the reasons of what we have now.

1. Pervasive corruption.
2. Total impunity of those at power.
3. Glaring discrepancy between the living standards of the majority of the people and the estates the top officials build for themselves

In other words, a normal Wednesday in eastern Europe. If you could give us your opinion on something more concrete like what Seamus asked.

My concerns center around secession. As in, Crimea and everything East of the Dnieper secede from the new Government and, being largely Russian speakers the Russians move in to "prevent ethnic cleansing" or some such. If this happens I do not believe NATO would intervene, or stop buying fuel from Russia.

The EU then gets to prop up (see posts above) the poorest part of the Ukraine while the most profitable zones become a Russian satrapy or get re-annexed outright.

While I am sure there is some sentiment along these lines in the region noted, I do not know how prevalent it is and, therefore, just how likely this unhappy scenario might be.

[rvg]

My concerns center around secession. As in, Crimea and everything East of the Dnieper secede from the new Government and, being largely Russian speakers the Russians move in to "prevent ethnic cleansing" or some such.

Nah. Russians and Ukrainians are so mixed that an ethnic cleansing is highly improbable. Russians with Ukrainian last names, Ukrainians with Russian last names, etc. It's a melting pot if there ever was one.

If this happens I do not believe NATO would intervene, or stop buying fuel from Russia.

Of course not. The spice must flow.

The EU then gets to prop up (see posts above) the poorest part of the Ukraine while the most profitable zones become a Russian satrapy or get re-annexed outright.

Highly unlikely.

While I am sure there is some sentiment along these lines in the region noted, I do not know how prevalent it is and, therefore, just how likely this unhappy scenario might be.

Just a bunch of loudmouths who will eventually get tired, provided that nobody tries to shut them up.

[Gilrandir]

When do you play TW games, I wonder? Too much talking on unrelated subjects!
Well, I wouldn't speak of division or secession. Surprisingly enough (even for me) people from different regions expressed their desire to stay within a single country. Despite linguistic, historic and future development views differences people consider themselves Ukrainians and wish to keep an integral state. I see two reasons for it.
1. I think I can speak of a definite Ukrainian identity which has been formed. Unlike the times of Orange revolution in 2004 when strong voices for separation of the South-east were heard today people feel Ukrainians whatever the differences might be. It may be explained both by gradual divorce from the common Soviet past (a whole generation has grown that has never called themselves "Soviet people") and free access to TV channels which show different points of view (which was absent in 2004 when television demonized the opposition). Supporting national teams in sports is also a powerful boost to create national identity.
2. General aversion to the Yanukovych regime (see my post above).
Now the Crimea is a different story. It became a part of Ukraine only in 1954 and it is not just Russian-speaking - it is ethnically diverse with with approximately equal proportions of Russians and Ukrainians the latter being practically devoid of any (separate from Russian) national identity and affiliation with Ukraine. Plus there are about 15% of Crimean Tatars. Those had been evicted from the Crimea and moved to Central Asia en masse by Stalin on accusation of collaboration with Nazis and started to return to their land in late 1980s. So many Crimeans do not associate themselves with Ukraine and consider secession of the peninsular from Russia to Ukraine back in 1954 a mistake which should be corrected. Now the Tatars are the strongest opponents of joining the Crimea to Russia. And there is Sevastopol where Russian navy is quartered and this city is the most Russia-minded.
But as the latest developments show (again surprisingly enough) many people in the Crimea consider it a part of Ukraine (they do not call themselves Ukrainians but rather say that they live in Ukraine) which gives me hope of retaining the Crimea within the nation.
But it all depends on what the new authorities will do. If they manage to show some economic progress and let alone the language issue then all separatist talks will peter out quickly.
I'm afraid I can't stay here posting continuously (I have my hands pretty full) but I will step by as often as I can to offer my vision of events. So stay tuned.

[HopAlongBunny]

While I hope for the best in Ukraine, I have very specific worries.
The Ukraine is of course free to choose whatever path they wish... much like Mexico, Cuba, Nicaragua,... etc. are free to choose their path.
The Ukraine has to get its act together first, then push forward on the path they chose; none of that is going to be easy.

[Gilrandir]

To understand better what is going on one must know the prehistory.
The roots of the conflict go back to 2004 presidential election. Yanukovych won it but mainly through obnoxious machinations. It is true that many people in the southeast supported him (goaded and scared by the propaganda that predicted fascists from Western Ukraine coming and murdering all those who spoke Russian). But there were numerous cases of the so called merry-go-rounds (the people with absentee ballots touring the country and voting at several polling stations), dropping into the ballot boxes whole bunches (rather packs) of ballots by one person, vote calculation frauds and computer program responsible for collecting voting results from all over the nation being tapped. It caused the outburst of popular sentiment in favor of Yushchenko and resulted in what is now known as Orange revolution.
But the new president turned out a weakling and his presidency was largely spent in recrimination and struggle with Tymoshenko. Such development caused disgust and disappointment among their supporters and in 2010 Yanukovych won mainly through dissent and indifference of his opponents' adherents.
Now Yanukovych was always considered a pro-Russian politician and it reflected the sentiment of his electorate. Astonishingly for the majority of Ukrainians (both from the West and the South-east) he proclaimed a course towards EU. Neither part of Ukraine took it seriously but he was persistent in his propaganda advertising future bliss to come. I would say that people all over Ukraine in their everyday struggle to survive did not think of joining EU at all, considering it too good and unreal to be true. But four years of propaganda worked pretty well so people looked forward with great expectations to the much advertised association agreement. But Yanukovych backed out at the last possible moment. People felt as if they came to the party after persistent invitations (though they had had no great desire to come), but instead of the promised feast they were told to go back home hungry. That was what triggered the initial outburst in November 2013. How the situation has come to the pass we are having now is another chapter of the story to be covered later.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

To understand better what is going on one must know the prehistory.
The roots of the conflict go back to 2004 presidential election. Yanukovych won it but mainly through obnoxious machinations. It is true that many people in the southeast supported him (goaded and scared by the propaganda that predicted fascists from Western Ukraine coming and murdering all those who spoke Russian). But there were numerous cases of the so called merry-go-rounds (the people with absentee ballots touring the country and voting at several polling stations), dropping into the ballot boxes whole bunches (rather packs) of ballots by one person, vote calculation frauds and computer program responsible for collecting voting results from all over the nation being tapped. It caused the outburst of popular sentiment in favor of Yushchenko and resulted in what is now known as Orange revolution.
But the new president turned out a weakling and his presidency was largely spent in recrimination and struggle with Tymoshenko. Such development caused disgust and disappointment among their supporters and in 2010 Yanukovych won mainly through dissent and indifference of his opponents' adherents.
Now Yanukovych was always considered a pro-Russian politician and it reflected the sentiment of his electorate. Astonishingly for the majority of Ukrainians (both from the West and the South-east) he proclaimed a course towards EU. Neither part of Ukraine took it seriously but he was persistent in his propaganda advertising future bliss to come. I would say that people all over Ukraine in their everyday struggle to survive did not think of joining EU at all, considering it too good and unreal to be true. But four years of propaganda worked pretty well so people looked forward with great expectations to the much advertised association agreement. But Yanukovych backed out at the last possible moment. People felt as if they came to the party after persistent invitations (though they had had no great desire to come), but instead of the promised feast they were told to go back home hungry. That was what triggered the initial outburst in November 2013. How the situation has come to the pass we are having now is another chapter of the story to be covered later.

And now Russian-speaking paramilitary types have siezed public buildings in the Crimea.

The question we must ask now is - who are these Men.

You know, I remember Yushchenko's election, and the disappointment in him in the West after. It's depressing that there was only one apparent alternative for Ukrainians.

[Gilrandir]

Now I would like to offer a view on the chain of events and the mistakes the authorities made hoping to deal with the crisis.
So, before the summit in Vilnius some protesters gathered on Maidan to make sure, as they claimed, that Yanukovych signs the AA. It ended in a failure so the protesters stayed on in vain hoping for they knew not what. Their number was about 200, most of them students. The best solution for Yanukovych would have been to let them be purposeless and disappointed until they dwindled like a Crusade in a low-zeal province. But here comes MISTAKE #1.
At night of the 1st of December the police atrociously drove them away beating savagely even those who escaped to the nearest vicinity and using batons and boots against those who fell and could not get up. It caused a huge upheaval and people started to flood Maidan. Where it had been a couple of hundreds now stood thousands of resolute protesters who now had a reason to protest. EU AA was forgotten. They demanded punishment for those who directed and enforced the senseless atrocities. Yanukovych pretended to get it investigated and suspended a couple of officials who (as was popularly believed) couldn't have acted on their own accord. Symptomatically, the minister of internal affairs Zakharchenko and the Head of the President's administration Klyuyev, notorious hard-liners suspected of being at the bottom of it all, got off unscathed. No one even thought of demading a resignation from Yanukovych.
Maidan dragged on well into January and its leaders urged the parliamenary opposition first to some decisive actions then just to any actions but they were unable to offer any clear-cut plan. It seemed that Maidan would soon dissolve.
But here we go again, MISTAKE #2.
The Parliament adopts a law ostensibly to bring Ukrainian legislature in accordance with the European one. In particular, it forbade covering faces and wearing helmets in the street, cars moving in groups of six and more, disclosure of any information about judges' residence and families, internet control and many other things. As its authors claimed, such norms exist in most European countries. It may well be true, but in those conditions the law was understood as an encroachment on democracy.
Again the protesters received a cause to fight for (or, this time, to fight against). People started to mock the authorities coming to police departments to make confessions that when they were kids they wore animal masks at Christmas parties and asked for permission to form a group of six cars as they wanted to go fishing.
The situation exacerbated and streetfights broke. Now it has become practically impossible to discover who started the violence with both sides blaming the opponents. I think you followed the events so I won't repeat them. I wanted to show the causes and consequences.
The mistakes I attribute to the ill advice of Russian advisers who worked for Yanukovych. The advice was misplaced as Russians gave it basing their judgement on percepting Ukrainians as if they were Russians. It is deeply rooted in Russian mentality to fear and respect the monarch (the more you fear him, the greater is the respect). If Russians start protesting and the protests are supressed they tend to hide in a deep hole thinking: "Well, after all he is the Tsar. We should obey." Ukrainian mentality turned out to be different - a hundred started a protest, got supressed, so thousands must step in.
So much for Maidan in Kyiv. But what was going on in the provinces is to be reported later.

[HoreTore]

And now Russian-speaking paramilitary types have siezed public buildings in the Crimea.

The question we must ask now is - who are these Men.

You know, I remember Yushchenko's election, and the disappointment in him in the West after. It's depressing that there was only one apparent alternative for Ukrainians.

My earlier comparison to Georgia sounds a lot less ridiculous now, eh?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

My earlier comparison to Georgia sounds a lot less ridiculous now, eh?

I did not think it ridiculous at all. And Gilrandir made it pretty clear that the Crimea is the most likely flash point for any real problem. Now, is it another Ossetia? Too early to say.

[Kagemusha]

The chess move is Crimea. Gilrandir your country is not the only country in the west without NATO surviving in the pressure of Russia, while very different in lot of aspects, my sentiment goes to you and your countrymen,sincerely from Finland.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

The chess move is Crimea. Gilrandir your country is not the only country in the west without NATO surviving in the pressure of Russia, while very different in lot of aspects, my sentiment goes to you and your countrymen,sincerely from Finland.

And you KNOW he means it when a Finn stays sober enough to finish the whole post without editing....

[a completely inoffensive name]

Self determination. If Crimea identifies as Russian, let it be done. Obviously there are minority groups which would not be happy under this situation, but I think that is where EU/UN intervention would be beneficial in providing reparations for such groups if they so choose to move rather than live under Russian government.

[Shaka_Khan]

Self determination. If Crimea identifies as Russian, let it be done. Obviously there are minority groups which would not be happy under this situation, but I think that is where EU/UN intervention would be beneficial in providing reparations for such groups if they so choose to move rather than live under Russian government.

The question is, would Ukraine let Russia take Crimea without a fight? History has shown that very few countries give up their land without a fight even if their opponent is a superpower. Even if the Ukrainian government backs down, tensions would remain, and I get the feeling that there still would be some or more Ukrainian civilians who'd retaliate. If the Mexicans in New Mexico demand independence, and if Mexican soldiers intrude into that state, would the US sit by and do nothing about it? Certainly not. It would be the same vis-à-vis. Mexico wouldn't sit by if the US took Mexican land even though the US is a nuclear superpower. Although having nukes make the opponent reluctant to attack, when being attacked upon, most countries will defend for their lives even when facing a nuclear power.

That being said, Ukraine probably regrets disbanding their Soviet era nukes.

[Gilrandir]

In all the speculations about Crimeans' choice you forget one "very small but very important" (as Gorbachev put it) factor: brainwashing aka propaganda. Most people in the Crimea watch Russian TV and trust it rather than Ukrainian channels. Putin-controlled TV did its best to present protesters as rioters, marauders, extremists, fascists and radicals. They leave it unsaid that protesters enjoy a prodigious support in Kyiv (a predominantly Russian-speaking city, btw). People brought to Maidan food (so much that protesters had to turn them down), medicines (Maidan donated the surplus to some hospitals and orphanages), clothes (the surplus donated to retirement houses). Have you ever seen a red Ferrari with its top down and its back seat filled with tyres? I have. Old ladies offered to wash the floor in the buildings used as hospitals, the wounded were taken home to be treated there after surgeries, churches opened their gates and let their territory be turned into a field hospital where people brought expensive medical equipment bought for their own money and gave it free to be used by Maidaners. At hospitals people lined to donate blood. (You know, I'm proud of my nation). Do you think anything of it was shown by Russian TV? If we adopt their view then all the 3 million inhabitants of Kyiv (as well as those Bandera-followers from Western Ukraine) are rioters, marauders ... (see above).
So Putin TV succeeded in making protesters orcs and demons in the eyes of Crimeans. The next move is logical - now these demons are coming to the Crimea to kill all Russian-speakers, cut out their tongues, brand swastikas on their foreheads and forbid people to speak any language but Ukrainian. They may invite NATO (which in the Crimea is also a bugaboo as evil (or even more evil) as West-Ukrainian fascists). Only Russia can prevent it. "The Riders of Rohan stirred at first, murmuring with approval of the words of Saruman; and then they too were silent, as men spell-bound. And over their hearts crept a shadow, the fear of a great danger:the end of the Mark (i.e.the Crimea) in a darkness to which Gandalf (i.e. Ukraine) was driving them, while Saruman (i.e. Russia) stood beside a door of escape, holding it half open so that a ray of light came through."
Am I getting too poetic?
You know, last summer I was in Sevastopol when they celebrated The (Russian) Navy's Day and a crowd of people gathered on the embankment to see manouvers. A Belgian ship was spotted in the harbor and at once I heard murmurings in the crowd: "It's a nato ship, it has no business here, let it leave the harbor".
So any help from Europe or attempts of Ukrainian armed forces (which are directed by the illegal gang in Kyiv, as many believe it to be) to interfere will cause a reaction like "Better to have our Russian brethren. They will keep order."
The only help that can come from without should be pressure on Russia by some diplomatic (or financial) means if that is possible for meek European politicians (I'm sorry if I offended anyone).