Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

It's not officially an invasion, which is good enough fine print for west not to intervene. It's deployment of troops "in connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine and the threat to the lives of Russian citizens". Ukrainian army won't resist, according to the acting president.

The rest of the statement actually goes

"In connection with the extraordinary situation in Ukraine, the threat to the lives of citizens of the Russian Federation, our compatriots, and the personnel of the armed forces of the Russian Federation...I submit a proposal on using the armed forces of the Russian Federation on the territory of Ukraine until the normalization of the socio-political situation in the that country,"

[gaelic cowboy]

Russian parliament approves troop deployment in Ukraine I dunno bout you but it sounds like an invasion to me


There will have to be consequences for Russia and Putin over this or it could potentially cause havoc among EU and Nato eastern members.


Lets remember USA will have to be looking at this with one eye on larger picture vis a vis honouring defense treaties in East Asia.

Cutting Ukraine loose will not play well in Eastern Europe this has potential to cause a massive row in Nato.

[Fisherking]

The United States may have the most powerful executive branch of all times but the guy sitting behind the desk is indecisive.

If he can’t fix it with drones and covert ops, it just ain’t go’na happen. Look forward to a bunch of hot air coming out of Washington.

He may indeed get the US into some war but I don’t think this is it, not yet anyway.

[Sarmatian]

Yeah, that's the exact same link I shared. It's still not approved but I fear it is just a formality

[gaelic cowboy]

The United States may have the most powerful executive branch of all times but the guy sitting behind the desk is indecisive.

If he can’t fix it with drones and covert ops, it just ain’t go’na happen. Look forward to a bunch of hot air coming out of Washington.

He may indeed get the US into some war but I don’t think this is it, not yet anyway.

I think you will find even the most belicose US President would do sweet all, the problem is the political fallout later.


Even Reagan or Bush would not do anything millitarily and US didnt do anything in 50s for Eastern Europe.

Blaming Obama for not having the guts to nuke Moscow over this is a bit silly, however this will now defacto move the US Russia relations into a cypto cold war.

[gaelic cowboy]

Yeah, that's the exact same link I shared.

I know but where you it one way I read it the other, I felt the banner headline needed to be prominent

[Crazed Rabbit]

So Obama said there would be costs, and Putin freaking invades Ukraine like it's 1956.

What do we think is Obama's response? Europe's? What would work to deter Russia?

Is Putin going to try to control all of Ukraine or just the Crimea?

CR

[gaelic cowboy]

So Obama said there would be costs, and Putin freaking invades Ukraine like it's 1956.

What do we think is Obama's response? Europe's? What would work to deter Russia?

Is Putin going to try to control all of Ukraine or just the Crimea?

CR

I dont see that the "WEST" has any chips worth cashing really

But the fiction of resets of relations blah blah is totally gone now.



hmm apparently according to BBC 5 O'Clock news just now Putin saying he hasnt decided to act on the approval of troop deployment.

The Armed men who have effectively seized Crimea are not claiming to be "Russian" so Putin has a way to pull back if he wants.

I suppose there hoping the Ukrainians attack these groups to give the military fictions a legal footing.

[Sarmatian]

I suppose there hoping the Ukrainians attack these groups to give the military fictions a legal footing.

Are you kidding or you are really hoping that happens?

[Tellos Athenaios]

Spelling failed him.

[gaelic cowboy]

Are you kidding or you are really hoping that happens?

What are you on about why would I hope for that

As far I can see the men seizing key places in Ukraine are not claimed to be russian yet.

But its a serious provocation and IF elements in the ukrainian millitary or even the public were to clash with them who knows where this leads.


Lets be realistic here Russia sent armed men into Ukraine without identification on there uniforms, why would they do this if not to seriously increase the heat in this situation. The other reading is that they did so in an effort to spin the invasion out long enough to create a pretext for actual invasion due to blah blah crisis situation etc etc.

This is really an attempt to remind the Ukraine to steer clear of the EU and NATO







hmm Im seeing some reports now that they are being claimed as Russian troops by the crimean premier.

That certainly ups the ante in terms of how Ukraine itself responds to this.

[Sarmatian]

"Russian", as in, of Russian nationality, or "Russian", as in, a part of Russian armed forces?

[gaelic cowboy]

"Russian", as in, of Russian nationality, or "Russian", as in, a part of Russian armed forces?

Obviously I'm talking about russian forces, were all well aware these troops are from russia.

[Sarmatian]

Obviously I'm talking about russian forces, were all well aware these troops are from russia.

Link to the news, I can't find it.

[Brenus]

C’mon. Let’s implements a Kosovo’ solution:
1- Pledge to recognise International Borders and territory of the Sovereign Ukraine on Crimea.
2- Put Crimea under UN mandate
3- Organise or cover-up the ethnic cleansing of the now minority in the region
4- Organise a local referendum
5- Hire Ahtisaari as negotiator (or equivalent)
6- Inform UN that negotiations are not going well thanks to the interference of Ukraine.
7- The last workable solution to break the deadlock is to give independence to Crimea. However, Crimea will not be allowed to join Russia.
8- Give Nobel Price to Negotiator.
9- UN troops (UNCPF), made by Russia, are maintaining peace.
10- Tell Ukraine if they want to be part of EU just to shut-up, (or if they want the money to pay the gaz to Russia). And they want gaz in winter, better to be nice to Russia as well.
11- End.

[gaelic cowboy]

Link to the news, I can't find it.

well some of it was from the live broadcast on the bbc that i was watching at 5.



Dozens injured in clashes in Ukraine city of Kharkiv

[Sarmatian]

Well, according to Kremlin, the decision to deploy troops to Ukraine has not been made yet and those in Crimea are there under the base lease agreement. Putin's just got a blank check to order the move in if he deems it necessary.

This situation needs to de-escalate, and fast.

[gaelic cowboy]

Well, according to Kremlin, the decision to deploy troops to Ukraine has not been made yet and those in Crimea are there under the base lease agreement. Putin's just got a blank check to order the move in if he deems it necessary.

This situation needs to de-escalate, and fast.

Yes because the kremlin wants to be able to claim it hasnt invaded crimea, but lets be realistic this is an invasion by Russia.

[Beskar]

Yes because the kremlin wants to be able to claim it hasnt invaded crimea, but lets be realistic this is an invasion by Russia.

This is pretty much the fact, the real question is "What happens now?"

If Ukraine begs Nato or any of the Eastern-bloc to jump in, it could result in a proxy-war between the 'East and West'.

[Sarmatian]

Yes because the kremlin wants to be able to claim it hasnt invaded crimea, but lets be realistic this is an invasion by Russia.

If that's the standard, invasion has happened days and probably months/years ago) when a Russian soldier stepped over a white line outside his base. It also means there are dozens of invasions every year around the world.

The important thing is that 150,000 Russian soldiers are still on their side of the border and the decision to have them cross the border hasn't been made yet.

I'm hopping this is a chess move by Putin, because if it isn't, there's little anyone can do to stop it.

[gaelic cowboy]

ah come on now Sarmatian there are armed groups all over crimea, they have seizing important buildings the airport and there manning roadblocks. There not some ragtagbunch who pulled on a pair of combat trouser and grabbed a rusty shotgun, there clearly russian troops.

Russia has invaded Crimea but there just keeping stum for now, the kremlin is creating facts on the ground while winking a the international community.

[Sarmatian]

ah come on now Sarmatian there are armed groups all over crimea, they have seizing important buildings the airport and there manning roadblocks. There not some ragtagbunch who pulled on a pair of combat trouser and grabbed a rusty shotgun, there clearly russian troops.

Russia has invaded Crimea but there just keeping stum for now, the kremlin is creating facts on the ground while winking a the international community.

I'm not arguing that these groups are not at least directed from Moscow. I'm pointing out the fact that there's still chance Ukraine comes out of this with its territorial integrity intact.

[gaelic cowboy]

I'm not arguing that these groups are not at least directed from Moscow. I'm pointing out the fact that there's still chance Ukraine comes out of this with its territorial integrity intact.

I wouldnt disagree with this assement because clearly russia want to make sure that the Ukraine does not drift to the EU or Nato camp.

It doesnt matter if it was a real possibility or not clearly the kremlin believed it could happen.

[HopAlongBunny]

Hope you're right.
Russia is likely to have an increased presence in the Ukraine.
If something nasty and violent is averted, Russia is likely to offer military "assistance" just to be helpful ... like someone else who's name escapes me atm.

[HoreTore]

It also means there are dozens of invasions every year around the world.

There actually are several invasions a year. And yes, a soldier in uniform/with military identification crossing the border uninvited is an invasion.

I was stationed in the western part of the north(Bardufoss, outside Tromsø) when I was in the army. We had a shooting exercise in the eastern part of the north, and so had to transport quite a lot of stuff there as the base we were going to was empty. So, we had to drive a truck convoy there. Now, if you look at the map, you will see that the Norwegian border with Sweden and Finland isn't a straight line, it's a bend going into Norway. This means you can't drive straight ahead while staying in Norway, you have to go north and then south to avoid crossing the border. Long story short, the truckers got lost and found themselves in Finland.

That was an invasion.

Luckily, noone saw them, which added some relief to the captains anger. Apparently, he had been involved in a similar incident before, with a truck ending up in Sweden. They were seen that time, and that story ended with the Norwegian foreign minister issuing an official apology to the Swedish foreign minister for the unannounced invasion of Sweden...

[HoreTore]

I'm not arguing that these groups are not at least directed from Moscow. I'm pointing out the fact that there's still chance Ukraine comes out of this with its territorial integrity intact.

Georgia came out with their territory intact as well.

[Sarmatian]

Georgia came out with their territory intact as well.

Georgia fired on and shelled Russian soldiers. Important distinction.

Not giving Russia a pretext is the best thing Kiev can do at the moment. UDAR and Svoboda calling for a nationwide mobilization, is not doing that.

[gaelic cowboy]

Georgia fired on and shelled Russian soldiers. Important distinction.

Not giving Russia a pretext is the best thing Kiev can do at the moment. UDAR and Svoboda calling for a nationwide mobilization, is not doing that.

At this stage it harldy matters Sarmatian.

[HoreTore]

Georgia fired on and shelled Russian soldiers. Important distinction.

Are you of the opinion that Russia did not want that conflict...?

[Sarmatian]

At this stage it harldy matters Sarmatian.

I believe it does, or maybe I just hope it does. It may come out funny, but I'm really rooting for Ukraine in this one.

Let's face, there's no way Ukraine can pull of a nationwide mobilization. What little it can scrap, it wouldn't be able to properly arm them. Then they have to move through entire pro-Russian eastern Ukraine to get to Crimea and Russia. They will be stopped by road blocks and protesters. What are they gonna do? Shoot at other Ukrainians? They can't muster an effective force that will be more than a speed bump. NATO European members aren't ready to go to war with Russia over Ukraine and Americans are to far away to do something effectively.

There's nothing to stop Putin if he decides to move in, so, in my opinion, doing nothing to encourage that is the best strategy. Maybe they can pull through
with just some Russian troops stationed as peacekeepers.

Are you of the opinion that Russia did not want that conflict...?

The staple of Russian foreign policy for the last decade or two has been: NO NEW NATO MEMBERS ON OUR BORDERS. WE'RE READY TO GO TO WAR OVER THIS!

Remove the incentive. That's the only option left to Ukraine now, as I see it.