Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Gilrandir]

I will say this again here, in hopes that someone has a clearer answer than I can find.

The ruling party has a name that would tend to make you believe that they support Ukrainian unity.

It is the Party of Regions, which just merged with the Strong Ukraine Party.

The Party of Regions suffered a prodigious outflow of members. There two reasons for it.
1. Ex-members would like to dissosiate themselves from the reputation of the party which supported the corrupt and criminal ex-president and his posse.
2. Many of them had been forced to join it to keep their job or business. For example, the Chief sanitary doctor of my city admitted more than a year ago that he was offered a choice: either to join the Party of regions and keep his position or refuse to join and start looking for some other job. Most top vacancies (that were supposed to bring a side income) were sold for often immodest sums. Those who received them wanted to cash their jobs to the most extent.
Moreover, the ruling positions in the party itself were taken by people from Donetsk and Makeyevka (they are called here MakeDonean power) and most local party and administrative bodies of power belonged to MakeDoneans as well. Consequently, most regions were ruled by outsiders. The same in the Crimea which now tries to replace MakeDoneans with the locals. But the locals who are at power now can't claim to have been supported by the majority at the last election to the Crimean parliament: the Party of the current Prime-minister Aksyonov "Russian Unity" had 4% of votes.

[Gilrandir]

Key regions in Ukraine will still be dominated by pro-Russian parties.

I don't know how you choose what are the key regions and what are the small rag-tag that dangles about. The last election showed an overall parity between what you call pro-Russian and (to be politically correct) non-pro-Russian parties. But my view is that pro-Russian stance in Ukraine will suffer a serious setback after what Russia did in the Crimea. Many Russian-speaking people in the south-east were disillusioned in pan-slavic brotherhood and expressed their readiness to join the army and protect the country. I hear from people who were quite pro-Russian not long ago that joining Nato could be an option.

[Gilrandir]

Oh, and one more thing: water. Currently Crimean agriculture functions solely because of the water coming from Ukraine via a canal.

And 100% electricity supply as well.

[Gilrandir]

Because purposefully inducing famine and drought is actually encouraged?

By now people in the Crimea ought to start to realize that getting more autonomy and rights incurs getting more duties as well. They want all of the taxes left in the local budget - so be ready to pay pensions, civil servants and law enforcement bodies' salaries, student scholarships. At present only 30% of local budget is financed from local sources the rest being donated from Kyiv. But the locals keep chanting "Russia! Russia!" in the streets, but insist that their salaries (paid from Kyiv in Ukrainian hryvnas too) should be paid completely and timely and are worried that it may be otherwise. You can't hunt with hunters and run with hares.

[Sarmatian]

You can use multi-quote to reply to multiple posts in a single one.

By now people in the Crimea ought to start to realize that getting more autonomy and rights incurs getting more duties as well. They want all of the taxes left in the local budget - so be ready to pay pensions, civil servants and law enforcement bodies' salaries, student scholarships. At present only 30% of local budget is financed from local sources the rest being donated from Kyiv. But the locals keep chanting "Russia! Russia!" in the streets, but insist that their salaries (paid from Kyiv in Ukrainian hryvnas too) should be paid completely and timely and are worried that it may be otherwise. You can't hunt with hunters and run with hares.

You obviously aren't familiar with how budgets work. When you say that they finance only 30% of their own budget, that doesn't mean they collect 100% of the taxes and fees and receive twice as much from Kiev in addition to taht. How autonomous regions work is that they send a part of taxes and other revenues to the central government, which the central government laters send back (could be less, the same or more) and keep a part to use as they see fit.

The Party of Regions suffered a prodigious outflow of members. There two reasons for it.
1. Ex-members would like to dissosiate themselves from the reputation of the party which supported the corrupt and criminal ex-president and his posse.

And many were threatened and bullied into doing so. Check the leaked phone conversation between Estonian minister and Ashton.

2. Many of them had been forced to join it to keep their job or business. For example, the Chief sanitary doctor of my city admitted more than a year ago that he was offered a choice: either to join the Party of regions and keep his position or refuse to join and start looking for some other job. Most top vacancies (that were supposed to bring a side income) were sold for often immodest sums. Those who received them wanted to cash their jobs to the most extent.

Which is a tried and true method in most eastern european kleptocracies. If you try to tell it wasn't the same under Timoshenko or Yuschenko, I might literally start laughing.

Moreover, the ruling positions in the party itself were taken by people from Donetsk and Makeyevka (they are called here MakeDonean power) and most local party and administrative bodies of power belonged to MakeDoneans as well. Consequently, most regions were ruled by outsiders. The same in the Crimea which now tries to replace MakeDoneans with the locals. But the locals who are at power now can't claim to have been supported by the majority at the last election to the Crimean parliament: the Party of the current Prime-minister Aksyonov "Russian Unity" had 4% of votes.

The problem is that under the same principle government in Kiev is also illegitimate. Either both stand down or it's the case of pot calling the kettle black.

I don't know how you choose what are the key regions and what are the small rag-tag that dangles about.

Simple, those that contribute to economy the most are the key regions. California, New York, Texas... are key regions in USA, compared to Delaware and Alabama for example, or northern Italy compared to southern...

[Gilrandir]

You obviously aren't familiar with how budgets work. When you say that they finance only 30% of their own budget, that doesn't mean they collect 100% of the taxes and fees and receive twice as much from Kiev in addition to taht. How autonomous regions work is that they send a part of taxes and other revenues to the central government, which the central government laters send back (could be less, the same or more) and keep a part to use as they see fit.

However the budget may work the total figure of 30% remains true. And what also remains true is that tourists (especially from Russia) will think twice before going to the Crimea this year. Some hotel owners from Yalta report numerous reservations made from Russia being canceled, at least for May and June. Let me stress once again: the majority of Crimeans thrive the whole year on what they make in three summer months.

And many were threatened and bullied into doing so. Check the leaked phone conversation between Estonian minister and Ashton.

I'm aware of that. I am far from considering it right. But I attribute it to a kind of repercussion one gets if he tries to squeeze the spring to the utmost and then it lets loose and hits anyone within the reach.

Which is a tried and true method in most eastern european kleptocracies. If you try to tell it wasn't the same under Timoshenko or Yuschenko, I might literally start laughing.

You may start. Financially, under the Orange power it was the same, but not region-wise. Even in Eastern Ukraine local administrations were chosen from among the local orangists which was changed under Yanukovych who sent MakeDoneans throughout the whole country.

The problem is that under the same principle government in Kiev is also illegitimate. Either both stand down or it's the case of pot calling the kettle black.

The summary electoral support of Yatsenyuk, Tyagnybok and Klitchko far exceeds the mentioned 4%.

Simple, those that contribute to economy the most are the key regions. California, New York, Texas... are key regions in USA, compared to Delaware and Alabama for example, or northern Italy compared to southern...

Let me repeat myself:
The last election showed an overall parity between what you call pro-Russian and (to be politically correct) non-pro-Russian parties. Plus tycoons heading local administrations in "key regions" show their readiness to cooperate with the new authorities. Tycoon allegiance works stronger in such regions than adherence to some party. People tend to respect them and are ready to trust them.

[Kagemusha]

I think we can argue to the end of times about which side is "right" and which "wrong". I am just happy that at least for now, it seems that this crisis is heading to negotiations rather then shooting war.

[rvg]

I think we can argue to the end of times about which side is "right" and which "wrong". I am just happy that at least for now, it seems that this crisis is heading to negotiations rather then shooting war.

I'd rather see some sanctions beginning to materialize. If Europe lets this slide then Munich has truly taught them nothing.

[Kagemusha]

I'd rather see some sanctions beginning to materialize. If Europe lets this slide then Munich has truly taught them nothing.

Demonizing the opponent is basic human behavior. Sure the West can press sanctions. Those will hurt both Russia and West in the long run...And the Chinese will smirk silently at the side.
Instead of escalating the situation further. There should be free elections in Ukraine, monitored by OSCE and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, so Russian interests will be secured in Crimea. That is the goal i am looking for. Of course it cant go that easily as all sides have to act all mighty first for some time to save face...

[rvg]

Demonizing the opponent is basic human behavior. Sure the West can press sanctions. Those will hurt both Russia and West in the long run...

Of course they'll hurt both sides. The point is that they'll hurt Putin more.

And the Chinese will smirk silently at the side.

I don't know about that. Maybe will see that Russia can do this stuff and get away with it and realize that they too can get away with stuff. Mongolia will be the first one to find out.

Instead of escalating the situation further. There should be free elections in Ukraine, monitored by OSCE and negotiations between Ukraine and Russia, so Russian interests will be secured in Crimea. That is the goal i am looking for. Of course it cant go that easily as all sides have to act all mighty first for some time to save face...

This isn't gonna happen. This should happen, but it's not going to. I wanna be wrong on this one, I really do, but I don't think Russia will budge.

[Kagemusha]

In my opinion, if the Russian goal was to overrun entire Ukraine and place puppet government in place. Or at least also secure Eastern Ukraine, they would have already done it. They had the momentum this week when there was civilian uproar at Kharkov and Donetsk, but the "mystery armed men" did not appear. So to me it seems that their goal is to secure Crimea.

[rvg]

In my opinion, if the Russian goal was to overrun entire Ukraine and place puppet government in place. Or at least also secure Eastern Ukraine, they would have already done it. They had the momentum this week when there was civilian uproar at Kharkov and Donetsk, but the "mystery armed men" did not appear. So to me it seems that their goal is to secure Crimea.

Crimea is just a prelude. If Ukraine doesn't join NATO in the very near future, Putin will be back for more.

[Kagemusha]

Crimea is just a prelude. If Ukraine doesn't join NATO in the very near future, Putin will be back for more.

I guess we both just have to hope i am right and you are wrong. If you are right, i have a good idea which country will be next after Ukraine, as the last non NATO country among Russia´s Western neighbors, but in such case i will not be here debating that with you.

[rvg]

I guess we both just have to hope i am right and you are wrong. If you are right, i have a good idea which country will be next after Ukraine, as the last non NATO country among Russia´s Western neighbors, but in such case i will not be here debating that with you.

No worries, you guys can stall them long enough for help to arrive. Viipuri defense was a clear indicator of that. Last time you guys were alone, you won't be alone this time.

[Pannonian]

In my opinion, if the Russian goal was to overrun entire Ukraine and place puppet government in place. Or at least also secure Eastern Ukraine, they would have already done it. They had the momentum this week when there was civilian uproar at Kharkov and Donetsk, but the "mystery armed men" did not appear. So to me it seems that their goal is to secure Crimea.

My guess is they want stability and predictability, and if that's not possible, they want a pro-Russian situation on the ground. A pro-western Ukrainian government is acceptable, as long it's been brought about by a predictable electoral process that will not change from moment to moment. What is not acceptable is a process that may unpredictably turn against Russia, as was the case here. The more the protesters spat venom at Russia, the more trouble they were stirring up for themselves. What they should have done was organise themselves to win the next election.

[Fisherking]

What a surprise this is: http://bigstory.ap.org/article/russi...uss-referendum

NOT

When they went in it had to be to stay.

[Sarmatian]

Interestingly enough, a few days ago, Putin unambiguously said that Russia isn't interested in annexing Crimea and still hasn't officially changed his position. Could it be that this is another blank check he's safe-keeping in case he needs it later, like parliament approval of use of armed forces...

[rvg]

Interestingly enough, a few days ago, Putin unambiguously said that Russia isn't interested in annexing Crimea and still hasn't officially changed his position. Could it be that this is another blank check he's safe-keeping in case he needs it later, like parliament approval of use of armed forces...

Not sure what his reasoning might be, but if in the end he decides to steal land from a fellow Slavic Orthodox nation, he will be doing it to avenge Serbia.

[Fisherking]

The problem I see with international opinion is it is pretty much crazy.

The US and NATO could not really intervene or protect Ukraine at any point.

The world is just so used to the US vs. Russia that it is simply expected to do something.

If the US were to invade Mexico due to the drug war would the world see Russia as weak for not acting?

What would world opinions be should the US do something like that? Thugery! Pushing around the weak.

Am I wrong?

Yet if Russia invades a neighboring land people look for justifications. Smooth move! What ever.

Obama is a , no doubt about it. And the US is inconsistent and a poor ally.

But how do you see Putin?

Do you think he is any better?

Why is Ukraine at fault? Because they got rid of a rotten leader?

That makes it ok for someone to invade them?

Can’t wait to see the justifications.

[Ronin]

Interestingly enough, a few days ago, Putin unambiguously said that Russia isn't interested in annexing Crimea and still hasn't officially changed his position. Could it be that this is another blank check he's safe-keeping in case he needs it later, like parliament approval of use of armed forces...

don´t be silly, he doesn´t want to annex anything, they want to join! duhh!!! *ironic mode off*

[Pannonian]

The problem I see with international opinion is it is pretty much crazy.

The US and NATO could not really intervene or protect Ukraine at any point.

The world is just so used to the US vs. Russia that it is simply expected to do something.

If the US were to invade Mexico due to the drug war would the world see Russia as weak for not acting?

What would world opinions be should the US do something like that? Thugery! Pushing around the weak.

Am I wrong?

Yet if Russia invades a neighboring land people look for justifications. Smooth move! What ever.

Obama is a , no doubt about it. And the US is inconsistent and a poor ally.

But how do you see Putin?

Do you think he is any better?

Why is Ukraine at fault? Because they got rid of a rotten leader?

That makes it ok for someone to invade them?

Can’t wait to see the justifications.

And just what will all the outrage achieve? Russia have troops ready, we don't. Russia have legitimacy, by asking for a reversion to the previous elected state, we don't. They have power, and they have legitimacy. We can moan about them being the evil empire, but it does bugger all in practice. We can work on eroding their advantages, so that we can end up with a situation that we're satisfied with. But talk of Munich and all that? Are you really suggesting that we should react to this by threatening all out war?

[jackfruitguy69]

there are other orthodox countries which are weaker than ukraine

[rvg]

And just what will all the outrage achieve? Russia have troops ready, we don't. Russia have legitimacy, by asking for a reversion to the previous elected state, we don't. They have power, and they have legitimacy. We can moan about them being the evil empire, but it does bugger all in practice. We can work on eroding their advantages, so that we can end up with a situation that we're satisfied with. But talk of Munich and all that? Are you really suggesting that we should react to this by threatening all out war?

Threatening an all out war? Not necessarily, but the EU wont even entertain the idea of serious economic sanctions. As for the whole "we're not ready" argument, I'm not buying it. You're never ready. That's normal. The aggressor generally does not wait for the defender to be ready before commencing with an aggressive plan. Just gotta bite the bullet and start doing things. Sanctions (real ones), missile defense, troop deployments, etc. Do I want war? Hell no. Are there things that warrant a serious response up to and including a military solution? Hell yeah.
The EU needs to wake up and smell the coffee.

[Xiahou]

We neither have the will, nor the ability to stop whatever Russia does in the Ukraine. For us to publicly announce otherwise only makes us look more feckless and weak.

*cough*Syria*cough*cough*

[Pannonian]

Threatening an all out war? Not necessarily, but the EU wont even entertain the idea of serious economic sanctions. As for the whole "we're not ready" argument, I'm not buying it. You're never ready. That's normal. The aggressor generally does not wait for the defender to be ready before commencing with an aggressive plan. Just gotta bite the bullet and start doing things. Sanctions (real ones), missile defense, troop deployments, etc. Do I want war? Hell no. Are there things that warrant a serious response up to and including a military solution? Hell yeah.
The EU needs to wake up and smell the coffee.

And what on earth will these things do? Express our disapproval? Russia will just arrange things to suit them, leave when it suits them, then things will reset to the previous state, but with Russia in a better position. And the more we try to ineffectually do, the more Russia can justify doing. It's the same mentality that had the protesters demanding the fall of the Yanukovich government. They couldn't win by orthodox means, so they whine until the rules get changed and they get their win. Except they're not the only ones who can change the rules, when it's accepted that the old rules no longer apply. The fault in all this lies no so much with Russia, who are merely taking advantage of an opportunity handed to them, but the idiotic protesters and their equally idiotic backers who gave them the opportunity in the first place.

Accept this as lost and minimise the losses, rather than try to up the ante all the while. Work with Russia to give them a diplomatic victory of some kind. Then prepare like hell so we don't get caught out again. Europe is too dependent on Russian resources to risk any prolonged confrontation. What we should be doing is getting ourselves independent, and getting Russia dependent on us instead so that they need us more than we need them. That requires patience though, and is evidently something that those fools who instigated this lack.

[rvg]

And what on earth will these things do? Express our disapproval? Russia will just arrange things to suit them, leave when it suits them, then things will reset to the previous state, but with Russia in a better position. And the more we try to ineffectually do, the more Russia can justify doing. It's the same mentality that had the protesters demanding the fall of the Yanukovich government. They couldn't win by orthodox means, so they whine until the rules get changed and they get their win. Except they're not the only ones who can change the rules, when it's accepted that the old rules no longer apply. The fault in all this lies no so much with Russia, who are merely taking advantage of an opportunity handed to them, but the idiotic protesters and their equally idiotic backers who gave them the opportunity in the first place.

The fact that the protesters overplayed their hand does not give Putin the right to annex territory of another sovereign nation. Today it's Ukraine, I wonder who it might be tomorrow. Are you ready to trust in benevolence and good judgement of a despot? These things need to be stopped in their infancy. Paying a lot to stop them now will prevent us from having to pay a lot more to stop them later.

Accept this as lost and minimise the losses, rather than try to up the ante all the while. Work with Russia to give them a diplomatic victory of some kind. Then prepare like hell so we don't get caught out again. Europe is too dependent on Russian resources to risk any prolonged confrontation. What we should be doing is getting ourselves independent, and getting Russia dependent on us instead so that they need us more than we need them. That requires patience though, and is evidently something that those fools who instigated this lack.

If Putin is after fame and glory, he can have all the fame and glory in the world, I really don't mind. However, I think he's after fame, glory and land. And unless his ambitions run into a solid wall today, they are not likely to change tomorrow.

[Brenus]

"I admire that they have still managed to retain their right to bear arms " If you need to have the right to bear arms, it's because you feel frighten by the government, hardly what I call a democracy.

[Pannonian]

The fact that the protesters overplayed their hand does not give Putin the right to annex territory of another sovereign nation. Today it's Ukraine, I wonder who it might be tomorrow. Are you ready to trust in benevolence and good judgement of a despot? These things need to be stopped in their infancy. Paying a lot to stop them now will prevent us from having to pay a lot more to stop them later.

If Putin is after fame and glory, he can have all the fame and glory in the world, I really don't mind. However, I think he's after fame, glory and land. And unless his ambitions run into a solid wall today, they are not likely to change tomorrow.

And what is the price you want to pay to stop Putin now? Where do you expect to stop Putin? Crimea has a referendum in less than 10 days, and doubtless it will give Russia the option to incorporate it into Russia if they so wish. What kind of response do you want? The democratic vote must be annulled, and sanctions and the threat of military action will apply until they void this vote? Russia has a lockdown on legitimacy based on the illegitimacy of the present government and the democratic facade they can present in Crimea. I doubt if many EU countries, dependent as they are on Russian energy, would care to defend a clearly illegitimate argument. Even if Russia may have the worse argument in the bigger picture.

[rvg]

And what is the price you want to pay to stop Putin now?

Economic sanctions. Putin can pour money at his problems, but he can't pour oil and gas at his problem. It's time to start phasing out natural gas purchases from Russia and start looking for another seller even if it means having to pay more. Maybe halt the shipment of two chopper carriers that are supposed to be built for Russia by France. Start tightening the screws until Putin gets a very clear understanding that aggression will cost him more than he would gain otherwise.

Where do you expect to stop Putin? Crimea has a referendum in less than 10 days, and doubtless it will give Russia the option to incorporate it into Russia if they so wish. What kind of response do you want? The democratic vote must be annulled, and sanctions and the threat of military action will apply until they void this vote? Russia has a lockdown on legitimacy based on the illegitimacy of the present government and the democratic facade they can present in Crimea. I doubt if many EU countries, dependent as they are on Russian energy, would care to defend a clearly illegitimate argument. Even if Russia may have the worse argument in the bigger picture.

Legitimacy-schmegitimacy. Ask yourself if you are okay with Putin gobbling up chunks of Europe. If you feel just as safe today as you did yesterday, then by all means stay the course. If this development is troubling for you, then we need to do something. Not talk about doing something, but actually do it. Hitler too had a referendum about taking Memel from the Lithuanians. And won. And everyone else said it was okay. Democratic.

[Fisherking]

And just what will all the outrage achieve? Russia have troops ready, we don't. Russia have legitimacy, by asking for a reversion to the previous elected state, we don't. They have power, and they have legitimacy. We can moan about them being the evil empire, but it does bugger all in practice. We can work on eroding their advantages, so that we can end up with a situation that we're satisfied with. But talk of Munich and all that? Are you really suggesting that we should react to this by threatening all out war?

It is not about the west sending troops or starting a war. Even though UK, US, & Russia are pledged to protect the integrity of Ukraine…

It is not legitimate to invade the guy next door. If you call invasion and grabbing chunks of a country protection, don’t ever protect anything. Ok.

This talk of legitimate and illegitimate is bull. Ukraine was far less violent and much less upheaval than Egypt or any of the Arab countries. Who put troops on the ground there to take control?

Countries aren’t evil. Some of their leaders may be corrupt and some may be thugs. Evil? Every side think they are the good guys. Judgment call.

I just don’t think Putin should get a pass on this.

Sure, he has a better image than most. Not too well deserved however.

He is corrupt, that is how he made his billions. He is volatile, and ruthless.

He has helped his country, apparently. At least they think so.

But strong-arming and invasion are not acceptable. Even it you don’t happen to like the other guy.

Now, we don’t get all the news but I have not even heard the Russians say that armed thugs were wandering the streets shooting ethnic Russians or that there had been any of it. Certainly not wide spread.

We neither have the will, nor the ability to stop whatever Russia does in the Ukraine. For us to publicly announce otherwise only makes us look more feckless and weak.

*cough*Syria*cough*cough*

Obama would have jumped on Syria it he had been allowed.