Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Gilrandir]

“The same point of view is held by the new Crimean government: we don't see anyone who has right to parley with us.” So, you have a BIG problem, because, at the moment, Russian Troops are in Crimea, so you have to speak to someone. The entire problem is with whom. With the Crimean Separatists: you recognise (so legitimate) them.
The problem, imo, is this revolution started as a social revolt (against poverty, unemployment, corruption) and the spark came from the refusal by the Ukrainian Government of EU proposal and initiates the movement (like the suicide by fire in Tunisia did) for democracy and freedom. A social need started a political request. Then, thanks to poor choices, the extreme-right took the floor and stormed the revolution. Then Putin took advantage of it and “took” Crimea.
Due to the complete failure to understand (or anticipate) what the Ukrainian “Russians” would think of it, Kiev carried on a policy like if they didn’t exist. Because like it or not, no resistance at all was shown in front of the Russian went they went out of the barracks they had in Crimea.
It looks that the locals are more concern by Kiev than by Moscow. And all the rhetoric from RVG changes nothing to this reality.

You see it pretty much as I do. Only there was no failure to understand the Ukrainian Russians by the new government. They didn't have time to look around being too busy toppling Yanukovych and failed to combat Putin propaganda presenting protesters exclusively and entirely as fascists. Many Russians phoning my Ukrainian acquaintances are sure that we have here complete anarchy, nothing is working and armed people in the steets shoot anyone they want (targeting Russian-speakers especially).

[Pannonian]

Yes, Ukraine is weak - I get it. But 80% of Russian oil and gas to Europe comes through them. They should use this as leverage instead of being bludgeoned by it. What it sounds like you are saying is that Europe has a great interest in the outcome of the Ukraine crisis. Maybe you should start treating your foreign policies like they have consequence and work to secure the black sea which is becoming a powder keg - from Turkey to Moldova to Ukraine, Russia, and Georgia. Start acting like a responsible international actor.

Ha, a lecture on how foreign policies have consequences. I'd have been happy if the whole revolutionary thing never took place, and Yanukovich was kicked out in the next general election. Then regime change would have been achieved through a predictable electoral process, which Russia have no objections to as they know their man will have his chance again after the other side have messed things up in their turn. I like stability and gradual change, as it means change with minimal face lost for the great powers who play the game and less suffering for those on the ground. I'm not the one calling for revolution when we don't get our way.

[ICantSpellDawg]

Ha, a lecture on how foreign policies have consequences. I'd have been happy if the whole revolutionary thing never took place, and Yanukovich was kicked out in the next general election. Then regime change would have been achieved through a predictable electoral process, which Russia have no objections to as they know their man will have his chance again after the other side have messed things up in their turn. I like stability and gradual change, as it means change with minimal face lost for the great powers who play the game and less suffering for those on the ground. I'm not the one calling for revolution when we don't get our way.

I believe in revolution always and everywhere. Especially revolutions resulting in extremely low losses of life. The secession of Crimea may be good for the electoral health of Ukraine, forever eliminating those voters from voting in any Ukrainian election. It will also cause Europe to take black sea security more seriously, further disabling Russian force there.

Russia is a dangerous actor, but all signs point to their power and property loss in the long term. It is only a matter of time before they start feeling Chinese pressure on their indefensible eastern border, the collapse of Luschenko in Belarus, and the collapse of their authority on the Caspian through the secession of their own Caucasian problem in Ingushetia, Dagestan, and Chechnya. Cause insurrection in the Caspian region as a distraction while you collapse the autocratic Belorussian State. It would suck to be Russian. Their only hope is to begin NATO accession talks.

Western powers should do everything that they can to ferment revolutions world wide. From Xinjiang, to Tibet, to Venezuela. When our opponents buckle under the weight of internal pressures, the US looks like Valhalla. There is a reason that the US was a real power after WWII - because you couldn't invest anywhere, Earth was combustible - but America was above the fray for the most part.

With pressure in the right directions this time, the world could benefit from another round of revolutions. At least Americans would.

[Sarmatian]

Interesting: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-trending-26491349

FSB?

This woman appears to be travelling Ukraine to tell people how great the Russians are.

It's the same woman after 4 plastic surgeries.

Does the person who wrote the article actually have a brain? Someone hired a single actress to spread the "pro-Russian" message and then moved her from town to town, going to great lengths to pass her off a different person? Why didn't they just hire four actresses?

If it's true, it's a great actress, Hollywood quality. Christian Bale lost 15kg for the role in the "Machinist". Between the photos, she managed to gain weight, lose weight, have facial features changed and collagen inserted in her lips. That's a professional.

And, this is the story BBC picks up, while phone conversation between Ashton and Estonian minister is unimportant, something that shouldn't be given much thought and should be dropped instantly instead... It's really bad when intelligence becomes just a habit.

[rvg]

With pressure in the right directions this time, the world could benefit from another round of revolutions. At least Americans would.

I hope you realize that in the age of globalized economy instability just about anywhere leads to economic repercussions everywhere.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I hope you realize that in the age of globalized economy instability just about anywhere leads to economic repercussions everywhere.

I get it, but tell me that you don't love this stuff honestly.

[rvg]

I get it, but tell me that you don't love this stuff honestly.

I honestly don't. I have a family to worry about and thus place value on predictability. As much as I dislike the bureaucratic inefficiency on the EU, I don't wanna see them implode: turmoil is bad for business on either side of the Atlantic. Besides, why the hell would I want to wish misfortune on my allies?

[ICantSpellDawg]

I honestly don't. I have a family to worry about and thus place value on predictability. As much as I dislike the bureaucratic inefficiency on the EU, I don't wanna see them implode: turmoil is bad for business on either side of the Atlantic. Besides, why the hell would I want to wish misfortune on my allies?

I don't want to see them implode, you misunderstand me. I want to see them weakened and stressed.

[rvg]

I don't want to see them implode, you misunderstand me. I want to see them weakened and stressed.

I'm having a hard time finding a reason to subscribe to this position.

[ICantSpellDawg]

I'm having a hard time finding a reason to subscribe to this position.

To prevent mission creep. You want devolution, not a central authority making more and more decisions. Common economies, Common security, expanded freedoms but that's it. Currently, the fact that the EU is expanding is holding it back from imposing itself on the nations. They are forced to attract and accommodate with promises. Once they join, the vice begins to close. You need something to prevent this vice closure which is the natural course. The natural course is consolidation of powers, but that takes decisions further and further away from the individual.

[Fisherking]

It would seem to me if the Ukrainian Government is illegitimate, where the Executive branch was replaced by the parliament until elections can be held, that the Crimean Government is equally or more illegitimate. Seeing as how the Executive branch was taken over and is now only operating with the legislative branch on its own.

Call me a skeptic. Any time a representative body votes unanimously for anything, I wonder.

A few more items picked up by the BBC:

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26481423

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26495378

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26468720

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26486289

[Fisherking]

Has anyone heard this?

Think it is true?

http://english.pravda.ru/news/hotspo...mbassy_kiev-0/

Plenty more articles on the site if you want the Russian view.

[Husar]

You see it pretty much as I do. Only there was no failure to understand the Ukrainian Russians by the new government. They didn't have time to look around being too busy toppling Yanukovych and failed to combat Putin propaganda presenting protesters exclusively and entirely as fascists. Many Russians phoning my Ukrainian acquaintances are sure that we have here complete anarchy, nothing is working and armed people in the steets shoot anyone they want (targeting Russian-speakers especially).

Apparently they had enough time to propose a law that would remove Russian as an original language.
And people attacking Russian-speakers in the streets are playing into Putin's hands.

It's the same woman after 4 plastic surgeries.

Does the person who wrote the article actually have a brain? Someone hired a single actress to spread the "pro-Russian" message and then moved her from town to town, going to great lengths to pass her off a different person? Why didn't they just hire four actresses?

If it's true, it's a great actress, Hollywood quality. Christian Bale lost 15kg for the role in the "Machinist". Between the photos, she managed to gain weight, lose weight, have facial features changed and collagen inserted in her lips. That's a professional.

Pretty much, it's not hard to see that the women on those photos are rather different.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I really need to buy that fallout bunker. Or move to Hawaii.

Fallout bunker IN Hawaii perhaps? You can get one of those cute little dashboard hula-dancers for the shelf. When the hula dancer stops jiggling you wait thirty days and....

[rvg]

Fallout bunker IN Hawaii perhaps? You can get one of those cute little dashboard hula-dancers for the shelf. When the hula dancer stops jiggling you wait thirty days and....

Yeah. Decisions, decisions. Of course if the current conflict gets hot, I will try to enlist. I'm not a young man, but maintain a reasonably good physical condition for a man of my age. Plus, I know that part of the world quite well. If Uncle Sam finds a use for me, then off I go. This shit is serious, I just hope it doesn't get too serious.

[Brenus]

"It's the same woman after 4 plastic surgeries." KGB still the best...

[Fragony]

Yeah. Decisions, decisions. Of course if the current conflict gets hot, I will try to enlist. I'm not a young man, but maintain a reasonably good physical condition for a man of my age. Plus, I know that part of the world quite well. If Uncle Sam finds a use for me, then off I go. This shit is serious, I just hope it doesn't get too serious.

Nothing is going to happen. Give it a bit of time, it will be hilarious by then. This is not something to be worried about.

[TiagoJRToledo]

Yeah. Decisions, decisions. Of course if the current conflict gets hot, I will try to enlist. I'm not a young man, but maintain a reasonably good physical condition for a man of my age. Plus, I know that part of the world quite well. If Uncle Sam finds a use for me, then off I go. This shit is serious, I just hope it doesn't get too serious.

Because what the World really needs right now is another Uncle Sam's ego-trip.

[gaelic cowboy]

Because what the World really needs right now is another Uncle Sam's ego-trip.

I love how all these threads come around to how the US is a , please remind me who is meddling in Ukrainian politics.

[Sarmatian]

Russia, US and EU.

[Montmorency]

Screw it, I'm reading from the last page and calling it even.

[TiagoJRToledo]

I love how all these threads come around to how the US is a , please remind me who is meddling in Ukrainian politics.

If the US were to invade someo... Oh wait.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Russia, US and EU.

Who has troops posing as terrorists in the Crimea?

We're also not clear that it wasn't Putin who kicked off the whole snipers thing.

[TiagoJRToledo]

Who has troops posing as terrorists in the Crimea?

We're also not clear that it wasn't Putin who kicked off the whole snipers thing.

We have as much proof that points to Putin has we have that points to Obama. It's funny when we have a double-standard when it comes to "lawful" invasions...

[Brenus]

"We're also not clear that it wasn't Putin who kicked off the whole snipers thing." If you have to go for this kind of things, you are less and less sure of yours reasons.. Hey, I can't prove I killed nobody, I might be just good in hiding the bodies...
By the way, if he did, he is really a master politician...

[Kagemusha]

No worries, you guys can stall them long enough for help to arrive. Viipuri defense was a clear indicator of that. Last time you guys were alone, you won't be alone this time.

You do understand that it is no video game? Even if we could stop Russians i would be 90% at time dead, because of my wartime duty.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

"We're also not clear that it wasn't Putin who kicked off the whole snipers thing." If you have to go for this kind of things, you are less and less sure of yours reasons.. Hey, I can't prove I killed nobody, I might be just good in hiding the bodies...
By the way, if he did, he is really a master politician...

Well, we know Putin is quite happy to murder individuals to advance his aims - why not a few dozen people for the Greater Glory of Mother Russia?

[rvg]

You do understand that it is no video game? Even if we could stop Russians i would be 90% dead, because of my wartime duty.

Nonsense. Even in a lopsided campaign like we had in Iraq, taking ground still took time (over a month in 2003) and Iraqi casualties were nowhere near 90%.

[Montmorency]

Iraqi casualties were nowhere near 90%.

Many of the Iraqis surrendered or defected as soon as the fighting even started, really.

"Taking ground" meant merely driving there, in most cases. Finnish opposition would likely much stiffer, and the two sides more closely matched than the Americans and the Iraqis, leading to much higher casualty rates on both sides.

Of course, in such a situation the Russian armed forces would be much more brittle in the face of high attrition, and might even revolt against their superiors. Another reason why war is not an option for anyone here.

[Kagemusha]

Nonsense. Even in a lopsided campaign like we had in Iraq, taking ground still took time (over a month in 2003) and Iraqi casualties were nowhere near 90%.

Oh. So you know better then i do what my war time deployment In Finnish army is? You do realize there are different task and those put people in different ways of harms way, but thank you for educating me. I am not talking about the total possible casualty ratio of Finnish army thus words for my personal "wartime duty" but what my unit is earmarked for. But surely you know that also better that then i do. Exclude few very personally aimed remarks and i really do hope you should maybe once a while think before you post, my all knowing US friend.