Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Gilrandir]

This closing of the borders will certainly p*** off people in both countries, as it makes it way more of a hassle to cross borders. A lot of Ukrainians have relatives in Russia (and vise versa). Also, in Kharkov I often saw Russian cars in the streets, a lot of Russians came there for shopping. That seems to be all over now. We will see whom the people will blame for this development, the transitional government in Kyiv or the Kremlin.

With Russian propaganda machine in full swing it is not hard to predict which side will be held guilty. At least in the eyes of the people in Eastern Ukraine.

[Brenus]

“With Russian propaganda machine in full swing it is not hard to predict which side will be held guilty.” Helped by the full swing of the Western Media who absolutely ignore then.

I feel sorry for the Ukrainians. They started a social movement against crooks and corruption, for a better life in a fairer and democratic society. To achieve this they needed, as in the Arab Spring, a change in the political system (with probably the same results). The high-jacking of this movement by the extreme-right wing, with the full support of the EU and the USA stole from them the real object of the movement.
Thanks to the action of the like US Ambassador in Kiev, Putin sized the opportunity and moved faster than expected, as everyone was expecting him to have a delay of Grace thanks to the Winter Olympic Games.
So instead of a social progress, Ukraine is now facing secession, threat of secession(s), call to arms and possibility of war with powerful neighbour, or, civil war in the Eastern Borders.
Instead of choosing national unity and citizenship, the “provisional” government (elements of it), first came with the old corrupted, and went for division, threatening their own citizens.
Instead to talk to their minorities, they (some openly) wished to be able to kill them (some bragged having doing it yet).

So, now, what is possible to do?
A direct attack against Crimea is risky as Russian Troops are there.
Sent troops in the Eastern Borders? What if these troops are attacked by Ukrainian Russian Citizens? Will the Ukrainian Army shoot at Ukrainian Citizens, showing that they are not as such citizens?
NATO manoeuvres? Where? USA and UK, all right, but what if USA and UK troops are deployed in a “Russian” area and under hostile movement from the local populations? It is politically difficult, as counties in the world experimented (even USSR) to liberate locals who don’t want to be liberated.
Then, I can’t see Polish or German Troops deployed in Ukraine either as they will ignite even more the fears of the Russian Minorities (and not only).

[Sarmatian]

I wouldn't apply out of principle that someone might shoot at me if I do...

Had enough of wars. Beer is better.

[Husar]

US and the West has more moral high ground than Putin. That's all that matters.

From my more objective point of view this is not the case. I am sorry but you are wrong. The sides you compare are also apples and oranges, where is Ukraine in your equation? Part of the USA or the West? Or doesn't matter, just a puppet?

I give up - I'm gonna apply for Armour, what about you guys?

I'm gonna apply for the south pole because I have no desire to support either side in this incredibly stupid conflict.

[a completely inoffensive name]

From my more objective point of view this is not the case. I am sorry but you are wrong. The sides you compare are also apples and oranges, where is Ukraine in your equation? Part of the USA or the West? Or doesn't matter, just a puppet?

Just stop trolling for a moment and I will respond.

[Sarmatian]

Just stop trolling for a moment and I will respond.

So, anyone not agreeing with your position is trolling? Husar explained his position at length many times in this thread. Trolling would be someone dropping in and writing his opinion in a sentence or two, without contributing anything meaningful to the discussion. Kind of like what you just did.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

From my more objective point of view this is not the case. I am sorry but you are wrong. The sides you compare are also apples and oranges, where is Ukraine in your equation? Part of the USA or the West? Or doesn't matter, just a puppet?

I'm gonna apply for the south pole because I have no desire to support either side in this incredibly stupid conflict.

I am now convinced this is some form of German humour we don't understand.

notwithstanding that there is a strong pro-Russian faction in Crimea, Putin pulled the same trick Hitler did in the 1930's. I'm not say he's as bad as Hitler, or that he wants to rule the world, but we need to recognise the tactic as a landgrab, and an illegal one.

The UK has already stopped all exports of military tech to Russia, Merkel has said the G8 effectively no longer exists, the thaw after the Cold War is being reversed.

[Seamus Fermanagh]

Thanks to the action of the like US Ambassador in Kiev, Putin sized the opportunity and moved faster than expected, as everyone was expecting him to have a delay of Grace thanks to the Winter Olympic Games.

Was this in reference to the ambassadors statements in support of the toppling of the previous President or asst. secstate Nulands **** the EU comment?

[Husar]

Just stop trolling for a moment and I will respond.

There was no point to argue, you simply posted an opinion and I responded likewise and tried to offer some angles in addition.
If you think that qualifies as trolling, then maybe I shouldn't have responded to your trolling.

I am now convinced this is some form of German humour we don't understand.

notwithstanding that there is a strong pro-Russian faction in Crimea, Putin pulled the same trick Hitler did in the 1930's. I'm not say he's as bad as Hitler, or that he wants to rule the world, but we need to recognise the tactic as a landgrab, and an illegal one.

I don't think Putin is trying to imitate Hitler, it was perhaps an illegal landgrab but my point is that I don't care and don't see why we should get involved as much as we do. The Ukrainian "revolutionaries" and their nazi friends are responsible for this. They made a revolution, replaced the government, enacted more and far more influential laws than any unelected interim government should and then they acted surprised that their neighbor and former ally who they just turned away from is angry about this. Oh, and they antagonized the large parts of the country which voted for the previous president, the one they chased away.

And now we are supposed to start WW3 to help them keep some island I don't really care about where a majority of the population does not even like them. As Brenus said, should we bomb Crimea to force the majority to stay with Ukraine? Should we force 60% of the people to do something to please the 10% of Tatars? The way the West reacts about this it's almost painfully obvious that the revolution did indeed happen with western support and now we're angry that Putin ruined our party...

It's a stupid kindergarten and we made a move without considering the reality of the situation. That was a big mistake and just because Putin isn't Mr. Niceguy I'm not going to support this huge diplomatic failure. Instead of going full support for molotov-throwing nazis, maybe the west should have negotiated between the interim government and Russia to prevent this clustercheese from the beginning. That was before we ruined our relatively good relations with Russia.

[Fisherking]

I kind of disagree with a bit of this. Putin sounds a lot like Hitler on this one. More like he wants to build a greater Russia.

His whole speech pretty much sounds like a justification for interventions in the future.

Yes Crimea was handed over to Ukraine. It had been Russian, before that Turk. Where do you stop? Ethnic minorities or just majorities? If you are on the Russian border you best not try what France did, or the USSR for that matter and educate everyone in one national language.

Another world war is stupid and so is another cold war but how do you ignore it?

It is a dangerous game they are playing. What would be the Russian response if Kaliningrad Oblast ( Königsberg, East Prussia) had a coup and decided they were independent or wanted to join some other country? Say they were occupied by mysterious troops and held an election a week and a half later deciding to join Poland or anyplace else? After all, it was never traditionally Russian. Those were all Soviet Colonists.

[Fisherking]

I worry that the whole affair will only spark more nationalism in both countries. If Putin decides he doesn’t like the outcome of the Ukrainian elections or the west does something stupid I expect more trouble come May-June.

[rvg]

Russians are storming what remains of the Ukrainian ships docked in Sevastopol. They are really trying their best to escalate this conflict.

[Husar]

I kind of disagree with a bit of this. Putin sounds a lot like Hitler on this one. More like he wants to build a greater Russia.

His whole speech pretty much sounds like a justification for interventions in the future.

Yes Crimea was handed over to Ukraine. It had been Russian, before that Turk. Where do you stop? Ethnic minorities or just majorities? If you are on the Russian border you best not try what France did, or the USSR for that matter and educate everyone in one national language.

Another world war is stupid and so is another cold war but how do you ignore it?

It is a dangerous game they are playing. What would be the Russian response if Kaliningrad Oblast ( Königsberg, East Prussia) had a coup and decided they were independent or wanted to join some other country? Say they were occupied by mysterious troops and held an election a week and a half later deciding to join Poland or anyplace else? After all, it was never traditionally Russian. Those were all Soviet Colonists.

Part of my point was that Crimea may have never happened had we negotiated with Putin right away instead of supporting the interim government in opposing him as best as they (and we) could. If you believe him to be a fan of Hitler that was never an option of course but by now we have almost closed the door for negotiations on the issue.

Do you think he would have invaded Crimea even without the revolution?

What was all that about the bay of pigs invasion after a country close to the USA changed to a government the USA didn't like anyway?
I almost forgot to mention that regarding the moral superiority. These things happen if small countries close to super powers do not behave and ruin their military and their political stability. Land grab or not, so far he took far less than he could chew, after all he'd be welcome in Eastern Ukraine as well.

As for Russia doing it's best to escalate this, so is the interim government in Kiev.

[Brenus]

“Putin pulled the same trick Hitler did in the 1930's” Nope. Putin is pulling the same trick NATO did in 1994 for Kosovo. So if you want to involve Hitler, you have to say that NATO pulled the same trick Hitler blab la bla. Then Putin, having learned his lesson how Russia was unable to react, is now doing the same thing.

“Was this in reference to the ambassadors statements in support of the toppling of the previous President” Yes. It convinced the Russians than EU and USA were playing the game to push NATO to the borders of Russia. As a lot of us here are explaining that Russia is an enemy, Russia did think it was a bad idea to have NATO tanks to its borders. Can I remind you that a US Ambassador had a very particular role in Saddam invading Kuwait? We will never know what she said to the former dictator of Iraq, but we know he felt free to invade his neighbour.
Like it or not, the point of view from Russia is USA being a very aggressive country invading others without any concern of International Laws or even a valid reason, so better to prevent having their tanks too near Moscow.
Citizen of a country that was ready to go to war for Missiles installed in Cuba, I think you can at least understand that.

Then you add the Russian paranoia due to 40 million dead during WW2, you’ve got the actual reaction. And you add the long-time game of the CIA to topple all leaders who disagree with the US policies (elected or not), then you’ve got the powder keg.

Just for fun, can I remind people I trained 5 years to fight against a Red Storm that never came...?

[Fisherking]

Part of my point was that Crimea may have never happened had we negotiated with Putin right away instead of supporting the interim government in opposing him as best as they (and we) could. If you believe him to be a fan of Hitler that was never an option of course but by now we have almost closed the door for negotiations on the issue.

Do you think he would have invaded Crimea even without the revolution?

What was all that about the bay of pigs invasion after a country close to the USA changed to a government the USA didn't like anyway?
I almost forgot to mention that regarding the moral superiority. These things happen if small countries close to super powers do not behave and ruin their military and their political stability. Land grab or not, so far he took far less than he could chew, after all he'd be welcome in Eastern Ukraine as well.

As for Russia doing it's best to escalate this, so is the interim government in Kiev.

I don’t think Putin cared whether we negotiated or not. It is mostly about Putin’s vision of the old Russian (Soviet) Sphere of Influence and moves by US oil corporations to develop Ukrainian gas deposits. His man was kicked out of office, which was enough to warrant his actions, at least in his mind.

Yes, the EU and NATO are partly to blame but it is not the main reason. Russia is still somewhat paranoid of western influence. I can’t blame them for remaining aloof from some of it. But in the end it is still about power and the vision of returning Russia to center stage and being a Super Power.

It all boils down to the same old, same old.

Sorry if it comes down to oil and gas and not revenge. Russian nationalism may help the position but it is just food for the masses.

[HoreTore]

Full of conspiracy theories today aren't we?

It's the truth!!

[Brenus]

"Sorry if it comes down to oil and gas" Agree. So having NATO in Crimea would have the possibility to cut the pipelines used by Russia.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Part of my point was that Crimea may have never happened had we negotiated with Putin right away instead of supporting the interim government in opposing him as best as they (and we) could. If you believe him to be a fan of Hitler that was never an option of course but by now we have almost closed the door for negotiations on the issue.

Do you think he would have invaded Crimea even without the revolution?

What was all that about the bay of pigs invasion after a country close to the USA changed to a government the USA didn't like anyway?
I almost forgot to mention that regarding the moral superiority. These things happen if small countries close to super powers do not behave and ruin their military and their political stability. Land grab or not, so far he took far less than he could chew, after all he'd be welcome in Eastern Ukraine as well.

As for Russia doing it's best to escalate this, so is the interim government in Kiev.

OK - the Bay of Pigs is a red herring. We're not making a moral comparison to Hitler - we're talking about Putin's strategy and tactics - it looks increasingly as though he is pushing the "all Russian" angle, which could potentially include all or most of Ukraine as they are the "White Rus".

The escalation has been all on Putin's end, Kiev took several weeks before it allowed its servicemen to even fire in self defence, and it is only now fortifying the border. They aren't ratcheting things up, they're moving to a war footing in preparation for a coming Russian invasion. They tried the pacifistic approach and it lost them Crimea and got at least on of their soldiers killed.

Here's a timeline from wiki, btw: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Timelin...is#February_23

Note the general LACK of support for Russia until those gunmen seize the parliament - and where did those thousands of Tartars go?

This crisis was manufactured by Putin.

[Sarmatian]

OK - the Bay of Pigs is a red herring. We're not making a moral comparison to Hitler - we're talking about Putin's strategy and tactics - it looks increasingly as though he is pushing the "all Russian" angle, which could potentially include all or most of Ukraine as they are the "White Rus".

White Rus refers to Belarus.

The escalation has been all on Putin's end, Kiev took several weeks before it allowed its servicemen to even fire in self defence, and it is only now fortifying the border. They aren't ratcheting things up, they're moving to a war footing in preparation for a coming Russian invasion. They tried the pacifistic approach and it lost them Crimea and got at least on of their soldiers killed.

Actually, they tried to export the revolution from Kiev to the eastern Ukraine from day 1, hoping that stunned opposition wouldn't be able to offer any resistance.

Note the general LACK of support for Russia until those gunmen seize the parliament - and where did those thousands of Tartars go?

This crisis was manufactured by Putin.

Lack of reports about it, perhaps, but Russian flags started appearing in the east soon after Maidan government made efforts to repeat Kiev scenario in the eastern regions.

Even though secession and subsequent integration of Crimea into Russa was illegal without any shred of doubt, let us not pretend that it wasn't wanted by the majority of the population.

[Fisherking]

"Sorry if it comes down to oil and gas" Agree. So having NATO in Crimea would have the possibility to cut the pipelines used by Russia.

It is more a case of Ukraine cutting in on Russia’s racket.

Ukraine in economic partnership with Russia and serving Russian interests is one thing. An independent Ukraine not under Russian directorship has to be crushed.

As for NATO basing in Crimea; Why?

Turkey is a longtime NATO member covering the southern coast and closing the door if need be. Why do something needlessly antagonistic that serves no good interest?

[Sarmatian]

As for NATO basing in Crimea; Why?

Turkey is a longtime NATO member covering the southern coast and closing the door if need be. Why do something needlessly antagonistic that serves no good interest?

Because Crimea is the best strategic position in the Black Sea. The new pipeline that's being build is within swimming distance from Crimea. Sevastopol is a natural port, allowing big ships, and a lot of them, to go in or out efficiently all year long.

Additionally, Ukraine in NATO would allow another batch of NATO ships, as the Black Sea is restricted for military shipping of nations without Black Sea coast.
NATO would have some benefit, but, more importantly, the loss of Crimea would be a huge setback for Russia, as there isn't another port on the Russian coast that can hold the Black Sea.

In the end, NATO control of Crimea would make it much harder for Russia to protect the pipeline, would make it much easier for NATO to strike anywhere on the Russian Black Sea coast and would make it much more difficult for Russia to respond to such a move.

[Brenus]

“This crisis was manufactured by Putin.” Ridiculous. You think he is more intelligent he is, but you underestimate his speed of reaction to exploit others mistakes.

“It is more a case of Ukraine cutting in on Russia’s racket.” Yeah, in the West that is called Capitalism (or business, or offer and demand). In the East it’s racket.
The racket was Russia selling gaz to Ukraine under prices?

[HoreTore]

In the end, NATO control of Crimea would make it much harder for Russia to protect the pipeline, would make it much easier for NATO to strike anywhere on the Russian Black Sea coast and would make it much more difficult for Russia to respond to such a move.

I find it hilarious how many in this thread have called Putin a Hitler hellbent on expansion, while at the same time laughing at Putin's desire for a black sea fleet. The argument given in this thread is that the black sea fleet is useless at projecting power, thus Putin is an idiot.

This skips over the obvious benefit the black sea fleet has in protecting Russia. I think this shows who the expansionist is, and it aint Putin...

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

White Rus refers to Belarus.

Actually, they tried to export the revolution from Kiev to the eastern Ukraine from day 1, hoping that stunned opposition wouldn't be able to offer any resistance.

Lack of reports about it, perhaps, but Russian flags started appearing in the east soon after Maidan government made efforts to repeat Kiev scenario in the eastern regions.

Even though secession and subsequent integration of Crimea into Russa was illegal without any shred of doubt, let us not pretend that it wasn't wanted by the majority of the population.

Sorry, I meant Kievan Rus - my bad. Doesn't matter though - in fact it reinforces my point, the "Kievan Rus" are the supposed originators of Russian culture, but Kiev is outside Russia. It's like England without the region of Wessex and London.

Because Crimea is the best strategic position in the Black Sea. The new pipeline that's being build is within swimming distance from Crimea. Sevastopol is a natural port, allowing big ships, and a lot of them, to go in or out efficiently all year long.

Additionally, Ukraine in NATO would allow another batch of NATO ships, as the Black Sea is restricted for military shipping of nations without Black Sea coast.
NATO would have some benefit, but, more importantly, the loss of Crimea would be a huge setback for Russia, as there isn't another port on the Russian coast that can hold the Black Sea.

In the end, NATO control of Crimea would make it much harder for Russia to protect the pipeline, would make it much easier for NATO to strike anywhere on the Russian Black Sea coast and would make it much more difficult for Russia to respond to such a move.

NATO doesn't need a black sea port - admittedly the port is of some value to Russia, but only really in access to the Med, which it needs to oppose NATO. I suppose there is some potential utility in being able to land forces behind the Russia lines further up the coast, but I'm not sure how useful that really is when you can use airborne troops to achieve the same affect. Bear in mind, Romania and Bulgaria are both on the Black Sea and in NATO anyway. So is Turkey.

Speaking of Romania - they are getting extremely twitchy about Moldova: http://www.rferl.org/content/moldova.../25302886.html

Moldova has recently banned regional referendums, apparently.

[rvg]

Russkies are massing more troops on the border. Gentlemen, do not kid yourselves: this is a full scale war.

[HoreTore]

Russkies are massing more troops on the border. Gentlemen, do not kid yourselves: this is a full scale war.

Nah, this is a full-scale scare.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

It's not full sclae war, but the temperature is rising.

The question is - will the Western Allies leave Ukraine out to dry the way they did Romania, Bulgaria, Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary....etc.?

[Seamus Fermanagh]

I find it hilarious how many in this thread have called Putin a Hitler hellbent on expansion, while at the same time laughing at Putin's desire for a black sea fleet. The argument given in this thread is that the black sea fleet is useless at projecting power, thus Putin is an idiot.

This skips over the obvious benefit the black sea fleet has in protecting Russia. I think this shows who the expansionist is, and it aint Putin...

I have suggested parallels with the Czechoslovakian absorption by Germany. Putin is not mentally warped; apparently has very little in the way of silly inanities about "race" clobbering around inside his skull, and, I suspect, less of a "gamblers" attitude than der kaput fuhrer.

Putin is being opportunistic here, and has obviously had contingency plans for this ready at need, but it is hard to see him as having hatched the whole thing on his own -- more like a prepared chess player seizing a positional advantage when offered.

[Husar]

Full of conspiracy theories today aren't we?

It's the truth!!

Yeah, there are even people who believe the NSA spies on everyone, trolololol.

I don’t think Putin cared whether we negotiated or not. It is mostly about Putin’s vision of the old Russian (Soviet) Sphere of Influence and moves by US oil corporations to develop Ukrainian gas deposits. His man was kicked out of office, which was enough to warrant his actions, at least in his mind.

We will never know now. And how can you say Putin did it because his man was kicked out after you just gave proof that the region is economically important even for US companies? That sort of supports the argument that the riots were instigated and supported from the US. Is it okay if the USA manipulate a country for economic benefit but Russia better stick to their own borders?

Yes, the EU and NATO are partly to blame but it is not the main reason. Russia is still somewhat paranoid of western influence. I can’t blame them for remaining aloof from some of it. But in the end it is still about power and the vision of returning Russia to center stage and being a Super Power.

The EU and NATO as well as the rioters are to blame for not taking that into account. If Mexican communists started a revolution with Mexican drug lords and established a communist government in Mexico that expelled all DEA and other US agents and declared it wanted to align with China, I'd not like to see the US carpet bomb Mexico but I'd still say that was kinda expected.

It all boils down to the same old, same old.

Sorry if it comes down to oil and gas and not revenge. Russian nationalism may help the position but it is just food for the masses.

As are freedom and democracy on the other side of the issue.

Russkies are massing more troops on the border. Gentlemen, do not kid yourselves: this is a full scale war.

Not surprising after Ukraine invited half of NATO for maneuvers.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

http://www.economist.com/news/leader...t?fsrc=rss|lea

An Article in the Economist - which boils down to the fact that Putin is lieing, we all know he's lieing and he manufactured the crisis, and he's getting away with it.