Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

Because if we move on, Putin will also move on. On to the next target.

Of course. He has just sent the fleet to the far side of the moon of Endor. Everything is happening as he has foreseen.

[Fisherking]

Of course. He has just sent the fleet to the far side of the moon of Endor. Everything is happening as he has foreseen.

Ha ha.

So I guess we just need the Russian view for the next act.

Evil Nazi Ukrainian troops in iron boots frighten poor ethnic Russian. Super Putin and the Army of Light sweep in and save everyone all the way to Odessa and maybe Moldavia, and welcome them home to Mother Russia.

Obama and the EU refuse to honor Russia’s green stamps. Everyone buys more weapons.

Ether that or some fool goes nuclear.

[Husar]

Ha ha.

So I guess we just need the Russian view for the next act.

Evil Nazi Ukrainian troops in iron boots frighten poor ethnic Russian. Super Putin and the Army of Light sweep in and save everyone all the way to Odessa and maybe Moldavia, and welcome them home to Mother Russia.

Obama and the EU refuse to honor Russia’s green stamps. Everyone buys more weapons.

Ether that or some fool goes nuclear.

So Russia just agreed to have international observers in Ukraine so that they have a proper challenge in doctoring a reason for the imminent invasion or just so that they can kill them easier in the process?

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...raine-23009669

[Fisherking]

So Russia just agreed to have international observers in Ukraine so that they have a proper challenge in doctoring a reason for the imminent invasion or just so that they can kill them easier in the process?

http://abcnews.go.com/International/...raine-23009669

So?

It doesn’t change anything. Observers in Ukraine, other than Crimea! Big Deal!

Elections in two months. Ukraine elects unacceptable candidate, game over.

[Sarmatian]

We'll need to see first if there will be election in two months. Government in Kiev might use the crisis to postpone the elections.

[Husar]

We'll need to see first if there will be election in two months. Government in Kiev might use the crisis to postpone the elections.

I thought they are all flawless democrats.

[Fisherking]

Aren’t you listening?

They are ALL Evil Iron booted Neo-Nazis and their lackeys.

It is time to stop the bloodbath. Bring them back to Russia. http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/...ather_lands-0/

Federalize Ukraine! Bring them home to Mother Russia.

[Gilrandir]

There's nothing that can stop unification of Kosovo and Albania, other than their own constitutions. With Kosovo, that's not gonna happen in the near future for sure, because several smaller states are easier to control than one bigger. Kosovo is perfect for US interests just as it is - it's politically, militarily and economically totally dependent on the US and that ensures the long-term presence of US/NATO soldiers in one of the best strategic locations in the Balkans.

A perfect example of Russia's doublethinking: Crimea was recognized as an independent state (before the annexation), while Kosovo was (and is) not.

[Gilrandir]

Aren’t you listening?

They are ALL Evil Iron booted Neo-Nazis and their lackeys.

It is time to stop the bloodbath. Bring them back to Russia. http://english.pravda.ru/world/ussr/...ather_lands-0/

Federalize Ukraine! Bring them home to Mother Russia.

Things start to look black for Tatars and other dissidents. There's been a report that the houses of Tatars (in ethnically mixed communities) were marked with special signs. If you sport any Ukrainian symbols or speak Ukrainian you are looked askance at or get bullied.
Is it true that Churchill predicted that fascists of the future would call themselves anti-fascists?

[Fisherking]

Oh?

And after they all voted to be part of Russia too.

Obviously, these are lies spread by all those Nazis supported by the CIA. The same ones who are machine-gunning all those poor Russian Liberals who also want to join Russia once again.

The sooner the rest of the world sees the wrongs of these evil thugs and the USA supporting them, the better.

You see what the poor Russian people have to endure because of this evil illegal regime! Ukraine needs to rejoin Russia and the sooner they do the freer they will be.

What a load of

[rvg]

What a load of

Indeed. Some people's desire to embrace this with open arms comes across as very irrational.

[Flavius Aetius]

You all realize that the Russians' lease on Sevastopol was ending soon right? They need that window on the black sea and the Ukrainians did not seem like they were going to renew the lease. As a result the entire situation was going to get messy one way or the other if the Russians were not able to maintain their black sea fleet. Because the Ukrainians couldn't control their own people because they were a corrupt as hell entity. The Russians just jumped on what they saw as a miracle and now the West has to clean up the Ukraine's mess.

[rvg]

You all realize that the Russians' lease on Sevastopol was ending soon right?...

Can you define "soon"? The lease was set to expire in 2042, 28 years does not sound like "soon" to me.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

You all realize that the Russians' lease on Sevastopol was ending soon right? They need that window on the black sea and the Ukrainians did not seem like they were going to renew the lease. As a result the entire situation was going to get messy one way or the other if the Russians were not able to maintain their black sea fleet. Because the Ukrainians couldn't control their own people because they were a corrupt as hell entity. The Russians just jumped on what they saw as a miracle and now the West has to clean up the Ukraine's mess.

It had been extended to 2040.

What I think is, Husar is still trolling, and the problem is not that Russia absorbed Crimea, it's the WAY they did it.

The Crimeans could have had the West on-side for this, we probably would have forced Ukraine to change it's Constitution to make a referendum in just Crimea legal.

Instead we have a smoothly orchestrated takeover by Russia, then a referendum, all in less than a month.

So - why did Putin do this?

To show he could - and show he would get away with it. That's the core problem - the point Putin is making, that he can do what he wants.

[Flavius Aetius]

Can you define "soon"? The lease was set to expire in 2042, 28 years does not sound like "soon" to me.

28 years is nothing for a nation. When you have 28 years until you lose your southern port and the Ukrainian leader you helped place in power has been deposed and anti Russian sentiment is in the country you take the first chance you can to solidify you won't lose it.

to Phillips: As a westerner it isn't that I think what Russia did was unconscionable or doesn't make sense. It is simply not in the West's collective interest for Russia to strengthen itself under any means. And I completely agree with your last point in regards to the Russians wanting to prove they CAN do these things with not backlash.

[rvg]

28 years is nothing for a nation. When you have 28 years until you lose your southern port and the Ukrainian leader you helped place in power has been deposed and anti Russian sentiment is in the country you take the first chance you can to solidify you won't lose it.

28 years is more than a generation. Hell of a long time even for a nation. Besides, the Black Sea in general has a rather limited in its strategic value.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

28 years is more than a generation. Hell of a long time even for a nation. Besides, the Black Sea in general has a rather limited in its strategic value.

All true - but the Black Sea is the only way Russia can get ships into the Med, unless it sales around the entire Atlantic Coast and runs the Pillars of Heracles, all of which makes fighting through the Dardenelles look like a picnic.

[Husar]

Oh?

And after they all voted to be part of Russia too.

Obviously, these are lies spread by all those Nazis supported by the CIA. The same ones who are machine-gunning all those poor Russian Liberals who also want to join Russia once again.

The sooner the rest of the world sees the wrongs of these evil thugs and the USA supporting them, the better.

You see what the poor Russian people have to endure because of this evil illegal regime! Ukraine needs to rejoin Russia and the sooner they do the freer they will be.

What a load of

The bullying of people supporting Ukraine already happened before the annexation apparently. The question is what forcing these people to stay with Ukraine would have achieved? Alternatively all countries with a Russian population, i.e. all satellites can risk war and expell all Russians. Otherwise they will always have these problems and expelling them will obviously also cause trouble. So what are we going to do about it?
Start WW3 to make Russia and their "citizens" in other countries shut up? Then fire the nukes to get it over with.

Husar is still trolling

[...]

So - why did Putin do this?

To show he could - and show he would get away with it. That's the core problem - the point Putin is making, that he can do what he wants.

Your PhD in psychology is finally paying off?

All true - but the Black Sea is the only way Russia can get ships into the Med, unless it sales around the entire Atlantic Coast and runs the Pillars of Heracles, all of which makes fighting through the Dardenelles look like a picnic.

Yeah, so maybe 2040 was not long-term enough in case Ukraine is going to join the EU now because that would almost ensure that 2040 is a finite date and the lease would never have been renewed. So Putin annexed it to secure the Black Sea Fleet for Russia. Annoy the West or lose a strategically important fleet in 2040? Maybe Putin won't be around anymore but he is a fan of Stalin who left him these Russian populations in all the satellites as some sort of legacy joker and maybe he wants to leave something for the Russian presidents who follow him. And that would also sort of torpedize the idea that he just wanted the land and is going to get even more.

But I suppose just mentioning that he may not want more makes me a Putin shill-troll who cannot be taken seriously.

[Kadagar_AV]

Yeah, so maybe 2040 was not long-term enough in case Ukraine is going to join the EU now because that would almost ensure that 2040 is a finite date and the lease would never have been renewed. So Putin annexed it to secure the Black Sea Fleet for Russia. Annoy the West or lose a strategically important fleet in 2040? Maybe Putin won't be around anymore but he is a fan of Stalin who left him these Russian populations in all the satellites as some sort of legacy joker and maybe he wants to leave something for the Russian presidents who follow him. And that would also sort of torpedize the idea that he just wanted the land and is going to get even more.

But I suppose just mentioning that he may not want more makes me a Putin shill-troll who cannot be taken seriously.

Or maybe, just MAYBE, he as Russian President is actually looking out for Russia's best interest?

Without Stalinistic theories having to be involved.

[Husar]

Or maybe, just MAYBE, he as Russian President is actually looking out for Russia's best interest?

Just like Stalin did then. But that was part of my point, yes, I may have overexplained the legacy thing, it happens.
Still doesn't mean that he is going to invade countless other countries which have no real strategic importance or fleet bases.

[Slyspy]

I'm sure that will be enough to reassure Estonia et al.

[Kadagar_AV]

Just like Stalin did then. But that was part of my point, yes, I may have overexplained the legacy thing, it happens.
Still doesn't mean that he is going to invade countless other countries which have no real strategic importance or fleet bases.

Remember you talk with a lot of USAnians here. I think we are both saying and thinking the same thing, just, one has to stay clear of the words that make many USAnians go frothing at their mouth - as they much like dogs then lose all sense of balance and logical thinking.


Note: Example of why such generalisation is not acceptable, please avoid it with people of nations.

Note: Re-edited to "many USAnians", I think that makes it a somewhat fair generalization :)

[Husar]

I'm sure that will be enough to reassure Estonia et al.

Estonia should know that the EU cannot tolerate an invasion of a member state any more than NATO could. Emphasis on should because apparently noone told them that. Which is just another thing that is worrying about the EU and western overextension against promises made and into regions where nothing can be backed up.

So what do you want me to say? That Putin is a bad guy? That we will send our 250 little tanks through Poland to stop him?
Apparently we like to make promises and hold grand speeches and aren't ready to back any of that up or keep our word, but I'm not allowed to criticize us as we are the most trustworthy democratic freedom lovers.
So yeah, Putin is an evil fascist, I hope American nukes will save us all and make me eternally thankful either from the barren wasteland or from heaven.

[Sarmatian]

All true - but the Black Sea is the only way Russia can get ships into the Med, unless it sales around the entire Atlantic Coast and runs the Pillars of Heracles, all of which makes fighting through the Dardenelles look like a picnic.

To show he could - and show he would get away with it. That's the core problem - the point Putin is making, that he can do what he wants.

Black Sea could become important if major changes occur in Turkey or the other countries that border the sea. The fleet is an opportunistic bet against the future, and a pretty good one.

You are again reasoning from a western point of view. The difference in point of view is partly to blame for the entire crisis. It isn't about power projection, it's about limiting western power projection on Russia's Black Sea coast. Like HT said:

I find it hilarious how many in this thread have called Putin a Hitler hellbent on expansion, while at the same time laughing at Putin's desire for a black sea fleet. The argument given in this thread is that the black sea fleet is useless at projecting power, thus Putin is an idiot.

This skips over the obvious benefit the black sea fleet has in protecting Russia. I think this shows who the expansionist is, and it aint Putin...

Russia doesn't have a blue water navy. They don't plan to build one and they couldn't afford one. Russian fleet serves one purpose and one purpose only - protecting Russian coastline. They can't compete in the Med. In the Black Sea however, when aided by land defense, the Black Sea fleet is useful. Past Bosphorus and Dardanelles, that fleet is floating scrap iron.

Showing off? Muscle flexing? Sabre rattling? Random land grabs? Empire building? Dreams of world domination? I don't know which one of these thesis is more ludicrous.

Russian mindset is completely different - their prime point of concern is protection again hypothetical invasion coming from the west. Everything else is of secondary concern. Until western politicians figure that out, we're gonna have more crisis like this one. And this isn't Putin. This is Russia. This is indoctrinated into their military and political thought. Removing Putin won't change that.

If I'm allowed to quote Einstein - We can't solve problems by using the same kind of thinking we used when we created them.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Your PhD in psychology is finally paying off?

Actually, I'm taking a sabbatical.

Yeah, so maybe 2040 was not long-term enough in case Ukraine is going to join the EU now because that would almost ensure that 2040 is a finite date and the lease would never have been renewed. So Putin annexed it to secure the Black Sea Fleet for Russia. Annoy the West or lose a strategically important fleet in 2040? Maybe Putin won't be around anymore but he is a fan of Stalin who left him these Russian populations in all the satellites as some sort of legacy joker and maybe he wants to leave something for the Russian presidents who follow him. And that would also sort of torpedize the idea that he just wanted the land and is going to get even more.

But I suppose just mentioning that he may not want more makes me a Putin shill-troll who cannot be taken seriously.

All valid points, but if Putin wants Crimea - looking at his speech - he also wants all of Ukraine and Belarus, along with at least the Russian-speaking parts of the Baltic States, Moldova and Georgia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26652058

"Everything in Crimea speaks of our shared history and pride. This is the location of ancient Khersones, where Prince Vladimir was baptised. His spiritual feat of adopting Orthodoxy predetermined the overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. The graves of Russian soldiers whose bravery brought Crimea into the Russian empire are also in Crimea"

All of this applies to Kiev, cradle of Russian civilisation.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26662721

While we're here - lets kill this idea of NATO's illegitimate expansion.

It was never for the US, the UK or Germany to say NATO would not expand east - because when Poland et al came knocking they were never going to be able to turn them down.

[rvg]

You are again reasoning from a western point of view. The difference in point of view is partly to blame for the entire crisis. It isn't about power projection, it's about limiting western power projection on Russia's Black Sea coast.

Protect Russia from whom? I hope you realize that Black Sea is heavily regulated by treaties. For instance, nuclear vessels (this includes both nuclear-powered ones and the ones carrying nuclear weapons) cannot enter the Black Sea aquatory. Ever. Now guess what, US carriers are nuclear powered: Turkey is required to deny them entry no matter the cause. If it isn't us then who could possibly be a threat? Romania? Bulgaria? Laughable.

Russia doesn't have a blue water navy. They don't plan to build one and they couldn't afford one. Russian fleet serves one purpose and one purpose only - protecting Russian coastline. They can't compete in the Med. In the Black Sea however, when aided by land defense, the Black Sea fleet is useful. Past Bosphorus and Dardanelles, that fleet is floating scrap iron.

Wrong, wrong, wrong. Russian naval base at Severomorsk has a HUGE modern Navy, including nuclear subs and one carrier. Guess what, they can't enter the Black Sea either. While in the Mediterranean they resupply either at the Russian base of Tartus in Syria or sometimes in Cyprus. Once again Black Sea is a non-player.

Showing off? Muscle flexing? Sabre rattling? Random land grabs? Empire building? Dreams of world domination? I don't know which one of these thesis is more ludicrous.

Why not? Why not? Why not? Why not? Putin has proven himself as a megalomaniac both within his country and abroad.

Russian mindset is completely different - their prime point of concern is protection again hypothetical invasion coming from the west. Everything else is of secondary concern. Until western politicians figure that out, we're gonna have more crisis like this one. And this isn't Putin. This is Russia. This is indoctrinated into their military and political thought. Removing Putin won't change that.

Please, tell me more about the intricacies of Russian soul... This is nonsense. This mindset has been brought on not by some genetic trait or cultural upbringing, but by a dozen years of Putin's propaganda machine. Nothing more.

[Husar]

All valid points, but if Putin wants Crimea - looking at his speech - he also wants all of Ukraine and Belarus, along with at least the Russian-speaking parts of the Baltic States, Moldova and Georgia.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26652058

"Everything in Crimea speaks of our shared history and pride. This is the location of ancient Khersones, where Prince Vladimir was baptised. His spiritual feat of adopting Orthodoxy predetermined the overall basis of the culture, civilisation and human values that unite the peoples of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus. The graves of Russian soldiers whose bravery brought Crimea into the Russian empire are also in Crimea"

Well yeah, and people also believed Bush when he said he'd invade Iraq because of the imminent threat of WMDs. But maybe politicians just say one thing sometimes to legitimate another thing and people who take it at face value are giving those empty words too much value. Maybe. So far Putin seems to have shown quite some readiness to negotiate since he secured his black sea fleet's future.

While we're here - lets kill this idea of NATO's illegitimate expansion.

It was never for the US, the UK or Germany to say NATO would not expand east - because when Poland et al came knocking they were never going to be able to turn them down.

So it was a lie right from the start, should that make Russia feel better about it?

[Kadagar_AV]

Why not? Why not? Why not? Why not? Putin has proven himself as a megalomaniac both within his country and abroad.

Dude, you are USANIAN, and you accuse Putin of megalomania?

From my point of view, he has acted in Russias best interest within his immediate strategic back yard.

I can't say I much like it, but c'mon... compared to USA's not so stellar modern history, who the **** are you to say even one itsy bitsy bit about it?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????

Heck, look at your own quote in my sig, to understand just how far removed from reality you are here.

[rvg]

Dude, you are USANIAN, and you accuse Putin of megalomania?

From my point of view, he has acted in Russias best interest within his immediate strategic back yard.

I can't say I much like it, but c'mon... compared to USA's not so stellar modern history, who the **** are you to say even one itsy bitsy bit about it?????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? ????

Heck, look at your own quote in my sig, to understand just how far removed from reality you are here.

Try more question marks. I'm also Russian, and as such I can tell that your understanding of Russia, Russians and Putin leaves much to be desired.

[Kadagar_AV]

Kad you're just a swedish version of rvg. You paint a blanket picture of over 300 million Americans that is both wrong and hilarious quite often.

Not quite. I think I even stepped in and defended USA somewhere further back in this thread.

I just call bollocks when I see bollocks. That the USA has a higher percentage of bollocks, and I thus flame them more, has absolutely nothing to do with my clear line of reasoning.

That the USA is the biggest meddler in world politics, is also a cause why I flame them more than others on this international politics boards.

Honestly, have you seen me let stupidity-by-nations slip by just because the USA was not involved? Ever? Even my own country(/ies)?

If not, please retract that statement.