Ukraine-in-a-thread

[Sarmatian]

Your basically trying to defend this using relativism.

This is not relativism by any stretch of imagination. I'm talking about a cause and a consequence. It's a very simple concept.

Russian actions deserve only contempt, just because you understand a thing does not mean you should cheerlead it.

You have a right to a simplified view of a situation.

Russia considers its "near abroad" as its sphere of influence. US-led NATO considers most of the world its sphere of influence, and neither give a about Ukraine, for the most part. Unfortunately, conflicts of such magnitude usually involve third parties, irrespective of their willingness to be a part of it. I have absolutely zero desire to be involved in it, and, to minimize damage to my personal way of life (or life itself) I'd rather remove the cause of conflict than pick a side and cheerlead it.

[gaelic cowboy]

This is not relativism by any stretch of imagination. I'm talking about a cause and a consequence. It's a very simple concept.



You have a right to a simplified view of a situation.

Russia considers its "near abroad" as its sphere of influence. US-led NATO considers most of the world its sphere of influence, and neither give a about Ukraine, for the most part. Unfortunately, conflicts of such magnitude usually involve third parties, irrespective of their willingness to be a part of it. I have absolutely zero desire to be involved in it, and, to minimize damage to my personal way of life (or life itself) I'd rather remove the cause of conflict than pick a side and cheerlead it.

If Ukraine did get in NATO/EU then ALL its people would be better off both economically and politically ten yrs down the road.

There is no scenario where the reverse with the customs union would even be remotely true.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

My name is Sarmatian (Hi, Sarmatian), and I have a problem - I hate freedom.



Your inability to understand thuggery from Russia is an answer to thuggery from the west is what's truly frightening. Your inability to even begin to comprehend that there is thuggery from the west is the most dangerous of all.

It's precisely such ignorant points of view that led to this and will lead to more of the same.

Well, I don't know - after 13 years of NATO thuggery, Afghans are participating in the first ever democratic transfer of power in the region.

After slightly more Russian thuggery, Chechens are doing what exactly?

[Brenus]

It is amazing how the NATO lovers people like free debates. Insults and personal attacks, that is their idea of freedom: No place for analyse, different point of view and mixing a military alliance (allegiance) for a tool of democracy.
Reminder: Greek. Turkey, Spain, Portugal were dictatorships and part of NATO. So stop the , please.

And about the freedom to leave, any country trying trying to be free of big powers influences is and was roughly put back in place, under the pretext of fighting communism. They were allowed to be free in our conditions and in our terms, as few elected (and murdered) leaders learned it, or even when frightening bid company interest as in Iran (Gal. Hamid Mosadegh).

Cuba is still under USA embargo because USA don't like the Political Regime.

Yeah, and the "enemy of Freedom" (was it "why do you hate Freedom"?) has been done and tested.

"Afghans are participating in the first ever democratic transfer of power in the region." BIG LAUGH!!! I have friends working there. You wanted to ease the tension in making joke.? Success, I can't stop laughing... Karzai will abandon power?
It is so true that you wonder why all the translators for the UK Army (or French) want to come in the country by fear of reprisal.

[Husar]

Will independent media be allowed in this hellhole the kremlin wishes to build?

Hellhole is a strong word, will it be worse than North Korea or Somalia? How afraid of it are the Russians? Do they want a hellhole? Are they perhaps all demons?

It is so true that you wonder why all the translators for the UK Army (or French) want to come in the country by fear of reprisal.

I think all the helpers who helped our armies begged us to be allowed to come here but most of our really nice countries, including Germany, told them to bugger off. That was actually in the mainstream media here at the time, not necessarily front page though.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Hellhole is a strong word, will it be worse than North Korea or Somalia? How afraid of it are the Russians? Do they want a hellhole? Are they perhaps all demons?

Hellhole might be a strong word, but we're talking about a Tyrant who admires Stalin and calls the Collapse of the Soviet Union a "tragedy", and also a man who has twice launched illegal wars to annex territory from his neighbours.

At best, Russians are less free than ten years ago, more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands and the entire economy is hostage to the price of oil and gas.

There's certainly great "hell hole" potential there if Putin miss-steps or goes crazy (as Tyrants are wont to do).

I think all the helpers who helped our armies begged us to be allowed to come here but most of our really nice countries, including Germany, told them to bugger off. That was actually in the mainstream media here at the time, not necessarily front page though.[/QUOTE]

Quite true, and that is terrible. However, today women voted in a national election and their faces were uncovered so you could see them smiling. Karzai has been kept in power by the Americans, Brenus can laugh as hard as he likes but the guy isn't going to become a local Warlord - he was still a stupid choice for the Americans, rather than the Afghan King, but there you go.

Afghanistan can only be said to be better off after the occupation, because it couldn't have been much worse before.

[Sarmatian]

If Ukraine did get in NATO/EU then ALL its people would be better off both economically and politically ten yrs down the road.

There is no scenario where the reverse with the customs union would even be remotely true.

Really?

Estonia GDP per capita in 2000 = 14 480
Estonia GDP per capita in 2013 = 16 717
15.44% increase

Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2000 = 7 165
Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2013 = 12 116
69.09% increase


20 years of NATO control, and Bosnia is more corrupt and dysfunctional than it used to be. Kept floating because the west keeps pumping in just enough money to stop it from collapsing. Not a single serious issue has been tackled. For all its idiocy in support of corrupt thugs, NATO may eventually unite Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats living in Bosnia, so maybe something good can come of it.

Next "accurate" statement please.

[Gilrandir]

It is amazing how the NATO lovers people like free debates. Insults and personal attacks, that is their idea of freedom: No place for analyse, different point of view and mixing a military alliance (allegiance) for a tool of democracy.

Now that reminds me of something... Wasn't I treated the same way? No, of course not. As Brenus is fond of saying, I'm having a laugh, it is a ridiculous thought.

[Gilrandir]

Will people be more or less free to express contrary political ideas in Putins Neo-Soviet customs union?

If a country expressed the intention to leave would it be allowed too?

Will independent media be allowed in this hellhole the kremlin wishes to build?

The new constitution is being prepared in Crimea. According to the draft, Crimea's head will be forwarded by the president of Russia and approved by a special body (don't remember its name) consisting of some 5-6 especially appointed members of the Crimean parliament. Among Russian regions the same system functions only in some North Caucasian republics where the threat of what Russians call terrorism is ever imminent.

[Sarmatian]

Now that reminds me of something... Wasn't I treated the same way? No, of course not. As Brenus is fond of saying, I'm having a laugh, it is a ridiculous thought.

Stop playing the victim. Your arguments were attacked and not you. What did you except when you compared the situation in Ukraine to Lord of the Rings? Applause for vivid imagination?

[Husar]

At best, Russians are less free than ten years ago, more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands and the entire economy is hostage to the price of oil and gas.

And how is this not the case in the West? Ten years ago I was still free to buy incandescents, there was less wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, Iraq had just been conquered for the oil and fewer people could set their taps on fire due to fracking for cheap gas, which America incidentally now offers to sell to Europe to "help" us avoid Putin's gas, what a surprise....

However, today women voted in a national election and their faces were uncovered so you could see them smiling. Karzai has been kept in power by the Americans, [...]

Point taken.
http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/...-videowebm.jpg

[Brenus]

“At best, Russians are less free than ten years ago, more wealth is concentrated in fewer hands and the entire economy is hostage to the price of oil and gas.” Err, that is capitalism at work for you. Same situation here in UK.

“a man who has twice launched illegal wars” How many illegal wars between the various US administration? No need to go to Vietnam, Granada, Panama, no just recently, from Clinton to nowadays?

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Really?

Estonia GDP per capita in 2000 = 14 480
Estonia GDP per capita in 2013 = 16 717
15.44% increase

Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2000 = 7 165
Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2013 = 12 116
69.09% increase


20 years of NATO control, and Bosnia is more corrupt and dysfunctional than it used to be. Kept floating because the west keeps pumping in just enough money to stop it from collapsing. Not a single serious issue has been tackled. For all its idiocy in support of corrupt thugs, NATO may eventually unite Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats living in Bosnia, so maybe something good can come of it.

Next "accurate" statement please.

Since the breakup of Yugoslavia - Croatia has raced ahead and now has one of the highest human development indexes in Europe.

And how is this not the case in the West? Ten years ago I was still free to buy incandescents, there was less wealth concentrated in the hands of a few, Iraq had just been conquered for the oil and fewer people could set their taps on fire due to fracking for cheap gas, which America incidentally now offers to sell to Europe to "help" us avoid Putin's gas, what a surprise....

Ah - so you advocate a race to the bottom?

The West has problems but our direction of travel is not universally "down", being German (and therefore well educated and analytically intelligent) I know that you know that a recession hurts the poor more than the rich, concentrates wealth etc...

We have had an extended recession - Russia has not and yet Russia is in a much worse state, politically, than we are. If meaningful political discourse in the West has become somewhat sickly, in Russia the discourse is in cardiac arrest.

Point taken.
http://www.tagesschau.de/multimedia/...-videowebm.jpg

Counter: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26908464

34% of voters were women - for a country were women had no right not all that long ago, that's a big deal.

Also - note images of women counting votes and the female MP interviewed.

[Hax]

Newsflash: Iraq wasn't invaded because of oil, Iraq was invaded because the American government was incompetent

Estonia GDP per capita in 2000 = 14 480
Estonia GDP per capita in 2013 = 16 717
15.44% increase

Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2000 = 7 165
Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2013 = 12 116
69.09% increase

Yes, because Estonia also has huge gas reserves!

Oh..wait, no they don't.

[Husar]

Ah - so you advocate a race to the bottom?

The West has problems but our direction of travel is not universally "down", being German (and therefore well educated and analytically intelligent) I know that you know that a recession hurts the poor more than the rich, concentrates wealth etc...

We have had an extended recession - Russia has not and yet Russia is in a much worse state, politically, than we are. If meaningful political discourse in the West has become somewhat sickly, in Russia the discourse is in cardiac arrest.

Everything hurts the poor more than the rich, even a boom, that's the great thing about capitalism, recessions hurt the poor more than the rich and booms let the rich profit more than the poor. After all, how much can the poor invest into an upstart enterprise during a boom? And I don't count getting a job that pays less than unemployment benefits as a gain. Getting a 1.5% pay raise is also not a gain if the same year saw 2% inflation.

Counter: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-26908464

34% of voters were women - for a country were women had no right not all that long ago, that's a big deal.

Also - note images of women counting votes and the female MP interviewed.

Yes, if it stays that way and we don't boycott them for electing someone we don't like that's great.
Also well done on ignoring that you yourself said that America installed and held a puppet in power there until now.

Newsflash: Iraq wasn't invaded because of oil, Iraq was invaded because the American government was incompetent

Why did it get reelected then?
Putin told them there are no WMDs in Iraq and they still invaded because noone believed Putin even back then. Guess who turned out to be telling the truth on that one...

Yes, because Estonia also has huge gas reserves!

Oh..wait, no they don't.

Neither do we, but we still had a GDP increase of 18%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita

[Sarmatian]

Yes, because Estonia also has huge gas reserves!

Oh..wait, no they don't.

Pretty much all ex Warsaw Pact countries that stayed in the Russian sphere did better, in terms of growth in percentages, than did those that moved to the western sphere.

The problem is, of course, that there's huge difference in starting position - Estonia was much more developed than, say, Tajikistan even back than, so it's hard to compare in terms of raw numbers, but it is indicative enough that countries that did move or tried to move to western sphere didn't do better in terms of economic growth.

I did make a mistake, those weren't numbers from 2000-2013, but from 2009 to 2013.

Belarus, which has no huge gas reserves, had a growth of 28% in GDP per capita in the same period.

Since the breakup of Yugoslavia - Croatia has raced ahead and now has one of the highest human development indexes in Europe.

I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but a quick check show that in 2011 they were 32nd out of 47 European countries.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Everything hurts the poor more than the rich, even a boom, that's the great thing about capitalism, recessions hurt the poor more than the rich and booms let the rich profit more than the poor. After all, how much can the poor invest into an upstart enterprise during a boom? And I don't count getting a job that pays less than unemployment benefits as a gain. Getting a 1.5% pay raise is also not a gain if the same year saw 2% inflation.

I don't disagree - but Putin actively suppresses his populace - and it is "his" populace, because he is a ruler and not a politician.

Yes, if it stays that way and we don't boycott them for electing someone we don't like that's great.
Also well done on ignoring that you yourself said that America installed and held a puppet in power there until now.

"Held in power" and "puppet" are both very strong terms which obfuscate the reality. Karzai is not a NATO puppet, and has not been for some time. He retained power after a NATO monitored election, where NATO provided the security. This time, the Afghan army provided the majority of the security and they seem to have done a bang up job.

Why did it get reelected then?
Putin told them there are no WMDs in Iraq and they still invaded because noone believed Putin even back then. Guess who turned out to be telling the truth on that one...

Telling the truth or accidentally right?

And the US administration didn't invade for oil or because it was incompetent, it did it for idealogical reasons.

Neither do we, but we still had a GDP increase of 18%.
http://www.tradingeconomics.com/germany/gdp-per-capita

That's because the Euro provides Germany with an artificially favourable export market - and you have a better industrial base - and Estonia is still only 2.66% behind you.

[gaelic cowboy]

Really?

Estonia GDP per capita in 2000 = 14 480
Estonia GDP per capita in 2013 = 16 717
15.44% increase

Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2000 = 7 165
Kazakhstan GDP per capita in 2013 = 12 116
69.09% increase


20 years of NATO control, and Bosnia is more corrupt and dysfunctional than it used to be. Kept floating because the west keeps pumping in just enough money to stop it from collapsing. Not a single serious issue has been tackled. For all its idiocy in support of corrupt thugs, NATO may eventually unite Bosniaks, Serbs and Croats living in Bosnia, so maybe something good can come of it.

Next "accurate" statement please.

Kazakhstan yer having a laugh man, your going to compare that cental asian autocracy to estonia.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

Isn't that the country where the ruler and his daughter had a falling out, and now she's disappeared - nobody knows where she is?

[Brenus]

“Croatia has raced ahead and now has one of the highest human development indexes in Europe.” You should share this opinion with the Croats. That probably why they had massive demonstration recentlly:” Croatia has an unemployment rate of more than 22 percent, and the figure is close to 50 percent among young people, according to Al Jazeera.”

[gaelic cowboy]

“Croatia has raced ahead and now has one of the highest human development indexes in Europe.” You should share this opinion with the Croats. That probably why they had massive demonstration recentlly:” Croatia has an unemployment rate of more than 22 percent, and the figure is close to 50 percent among young people, according to Al Jazeera.”

Amazing a country has an high unemployment during a large global recession.




By the way the one thing we know about recessions is that they END.

[gaelic cowboy]

Isn't that the country where the ruler and his daughter had a falling out, and now she's disappeared - nobody knows where she is?

no thats uzbekistan

[gaelic cowboy]

Pretty much all ex Warsaw Pact countries that stayed in the Russian sphere did better, in terms of growth in percentages, than did those that moved to the western sphere.

The problem is, of course, that there's huge difference in starting position - Estonia was much more developed than, say, Tajikistan even back than, so it's hard to compare in terms of raw numbers, but it is indicative enough that countries that did move or tried to move to western sphere didn't do better in terms of economic growth.

I did make a mistake, those weren't numbers from 2000-2013, but from 2009 to 2013.

Belarus, which has no huge gas reserves, had a growth of 28% in GDP per capita in the same period.




I don't know where you're getting your numbers from, but a quick check show that in 2011 they were 32nd out of 47 European countries.

Yes Belarus another noted bastion of freedom and democracy???

[Husar]

I don't disagree - but Putin actively suppresses his populace - and it is "his" populace, because he is a ruler and not a politician.

So does Erdogan, and he's a NATO ally, we even stationed missiles there to defend him.

"Held in power" and "puppet" are both very strong terms which obfuscate the reality. Karzai is not a NATO puppet, and has not been for some time. He retained power after a NATO monitored election, where NATO provided the security. This time, the Afghan army provided the majority of the security and they seem to have done a bang up job.

Karzai has been kept in power by the Americans

Your words, unless "held" and "kept" somehow have a completely different meaning in Britain that I'm not aware of.
I will also be very happy if Afghanistan can actually become a democracy where people actually live together in peace and harmony but it's a stretch to say that what we know now somehow justifies the invasion. And we can't yet be sure that it will actually stay this way.
Especially if the same reasoning applied to Iraq makes it a whole lot worse, ignoring that the lack of WMDs was already known at the time.

Telling the truth or accidentally right?

And the US administration didn't invade for oil or because it was incompetent, it did it for idealogical reasons.

I'm pretty sure the US administration admitted to flat out lying about a few of the reasons for the invasion and having had no real intelligence regarding the WMDs. The crusades were also done for ideological reasons but that didn't stop some noblemen from profiting heavily from them. Sometimes there is more than the obvious and what people admit ten years later doesn't have to be true either. The USA call us allies while their NSA performs more surveillance here than in any other European country:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ection.svg.png

And to assume that the US government acted in good faith while Putin was "only accidentally right" shows a very heavy bias already.
Those stories about mobile WMD labs were a bit far fetched even back then, and they only came up with that when the "evidence" of stationary sites was believed to be bogus or nonexistant by everyone.

That's because the Euro provides Germany with an artificially favourable export market - and you have a better industrial base - and Estonia is still only 2.66% behind you.

Except Sarmatian just said he got the numbers wrong, so the comparison is moot. We're still leeching off all the poor Euro countries though and Merkel is still Hitler.

[Hax]

Why did it get reelected then?
Putin told them there are no WMDs in Iraq and they still invaded because noone believed Putin even back then. Guess who turned out to be telling the truth on that one...

You go ahead and tell me. All I know is that oil production in Iraq fell dramatically after the 2003 invasion and it has only very recently (one or two years ago) managed to climb back up to pre-1990 levels.

Pretty much all ex Warsaw Pact countries that stayed in the Russian sphere did better, in terms of growth in percentages, than did those that moved to the western sphere.

The problem is, of course, that there's huge difference in starting position - Estonia was much more developed than, say, Tajikistan even back than, so it's hard to compare in terms of raw numbers, but it is indicative enough that countries that did move or tried to move to western sphere didn't do better in terms of economic growth.

Well, I don't know why you're that interested in making sweeping statements about the economics of either countries without really knowing the economic history of both the Baltics and Central Asia. Interestingly, one of the European countries that has experienced the most economic growth in the last few years has been Poland, and I don't think they've necessarily grown closer to Russia.

Additionally, I know for a fact the administrations under Toomas Hendrik Ilves have generally had a tendency towards austerity measures, which might (partially) explain the slow growth of GDP per capita. Interestingly, in contrast to states like Portugal and Greece, the Baltic states have not been endlessly borrowing money, which might explain why they haven't gone bankrupt.

Additionally -- leaving the economic argument behind for a second -- can't you think of any reason why the Baltic states maybe don't want to be all buddy-buddy with Russia? Anything at all?

[Gilrandir]

Stop playing the victim. Your arguments were attacked and not you.

Both. Do you forget calling me a nationalist? Or was it not a personal insult?

What did you except when you compared the situation in Ukraine to Lord of the Rings?

Stop reminding everybody your misinterpretation of what I made clear long ago. Yet I may repeat it again: I compared NOT THE SITUATION IN UKRAINE, but THE EFFECT RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA HAD (AND HAS) ON THOSE WHO TRUST IT.

Applause for vivid imagination?

Now I will remember that vivid imagination is another sin worth hanging by private parts.

[Sarmatian]

Well, I don't know why you're that interested in making sweeping statements about the economics of either countries without really knowing the economic history of both the Baltics and Central Asia. Interestingly, one of the European countries that has experienced the most economic growth in the last few years has been Poland, and I don't think they've necessarily grown closer to Russia.

Considering how many times in the thread alone was teh evil empire mentioned, I'd say my "sweeping statement" aren't really the problem.

Furthermore, I never said that there was no growth outside Russian zone. In the same period, Poland had 12.5% growth, and smaller GDP per capita than Kazakhstan. Those numbers are all according to the World Bank, btw.

The point I tried to make was "it is indicative enough that countries that did move or tried to move to western sphere didn't do better in terms of economic growth", which as an answer to Gaelic Cowboy's point that Ukraine will do much better economically if in western sphere. I understand if you missed it, his posts are getting harder and harder to decipher after the obligatory yer having a laugh start.

Additionally, I know for a fact the administrations under Toomas Hendrik Ilves have generally had a tendency towards austerity measures, which might (partially) explain the slow growth of GDP per capita. Interestingly, in contrast to states like Portugal and Greece, the Baltic states have not been endlessly borrowing money, which might explain why they haven't gone bankrupt.

No need to get defensive. I wasn't attacking the Baltic states or Estonia specifically, I just took the numbers from the world bank site and compared them to each other.

Additionally -- leaving the economic argument behind for a second -- can't you think of any reason why the Baltic states maybe don't want to be all buddy-buddy with Russia? Anything at all?

They have their reasons, but we're talking about economy at the moment.

So does Erdogan, and he's a NATO ally, we even stationed missiles there to defend him.

And supplied him with weapons to make the Kurds disappear quicker.

Spoiler Alert, click show to read: 

Hopefully, KurdishSpartacus isn't reading this thread

[Brenus]

“amazing a country has an high unemployment during a large global recession.” I know, especially of one which “has raced ahead and now has one of the highest human development indexes in Europe”.

[Philippus Flavius Homovallumus]

no thats uzbekistan

So does Erdogan, and he's a NATO ally, we even stationed missiles there to defend him.

He *tries* and more importantly *fails*. Not even the Turkish president supports him. He may want to be like Putin, he isn't.

And the missiles were there long before he was in power.

Your words, unless "held" and "kept" somehow have a completely different meaning in Britain that I'm not aware of.
I will also be very happy if Afghanistan can actually become a democracy where people actually live together in peace and harmony but it's a stretch to say that what we know now somehow justifies the invasion. And we can't yet be sure that it will actually stay this way.
Especially if the same reasoning applied to Iraq makes it a whole lot worse, ignoring that the lack of WMDs was already known at the time.

I meant primarily - prevented the Taliban from cutting his head off. He has been "difficult" for the West to deal with for some time and we stopped giving him real political support before the LAST election, irrc.

Ultimately - the invasion was punitive, that objective was achieved once we had ousted the Taliban. All the NATO lives spent since have been about putting the country back together. Something that would have been easier without Iraq.

The key point is that the Western democracies have matured to the point that they no longer install dictators or support them AGAINST their populace. Iraq showed that instigating their fall doesn't work to well - but Libya and Syria have shown that helping to topple them is preferable to not doing so.

I'm pretty sure the US administration admitted to flat out lying about a few of the reasons for the invasion and having had no real intelligence regarding the WMDs. The crusades were also done for ideological reasons but that didn't stop some noblemen from profiting heavily from them. Sometimes there is more than the obvious and what people admit ten years later doesn't have to be true either. The USA call us allies while their NSA performs more surveillance here than in any other European country:

https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikiped...ection.svg.png

And to assume that the US government acted in good faith while Putin was "only accidentally right" shows a very heavy bias already.
Those stories about mobile WMD labs were a bit far fetched even back then, and they only came up with that when the "evidence" of stationary sites was believed to be bogus or nonexistant by everyone.

Yes - I remember - I also remember that back in 2003 it was all a lot foggier. Papa said he thought what Sadam was hiding was that he DIDN'T have any WMD's. That was only really apparent after, though.

Except Sarmatian just said he got the numbers wrong, so the comparison is moot. We're still leeching off all the poor Euro countries though and Merkel is still Hitler.

Merkel's off the hook - Putin is Hitler now. According to Nick Clegg at least - can't believe that man's a serious politician.

***************************

Anyway - while we have been arguing this, it looks like FSB groundwork may be paying off: http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-26910210

Russian tanks roll in in 3...2...1...

[Brenus]

Yes, of course. You have legitimate storming by freedom lovers crowds, and the ones guided by the FSB.

"I also remember that back in 2003 it was all a lot foggier." Not really: French, Germans and Belgium (and Russian, but they can't be trusted) secret services were telling there were no WMD. And the UN. The USA helped by UK agencies distorted reports until they launched an illegal invasion on a false pretense. And yes, Saddam couldn't admit he hadn't some, it could have been seen as a weak point by his neighbors he attacked few times.
No fog at all, Bush and his administration wanted a war against Iraq and did everything to have it.